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The ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) represents a critical agreement between ASEAN member countries and China, aimed at fostering economic integration by eliminating or reducing trade barriers, enhancing service market access, refining investment regulations, and bolstering economic cooperation. This framework is designed to strengthen economic ties and enhance welfare across the involved nations. This study evaluates the impact of the ACFTA on trade dynamics by analyzing the Trade Intensity Index (TII), GDP, exchange rates, and a dummy variable representing the ACFTA's implementation. Utilizing annual data from 2001 to 2021, sourced from the UN-Comtrade Database and the World Bank, the research employs the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method to provide insights into the trade relationships under the ACFTA framework. The findings indicate a divergent impact, while Indonesia experiences a negative and significant influence from GDP, exchange rates, and ACFTA implementation, the ASEAN-6 countries display a positive and significant effect. Moreover, the study reveals that Indonesia's Trade Intensity Index with other ACFTA members is comparatively lower than Malaysia’s. This suggests a need for targeted trade policies in Indonesia aimed at amplifying export volumes in sectors where it holds a comparative advantage. Such strategies could significantly enhance Indonesia's trade intensity within the ACFTA, fostering greater economic integration and benefits under this expansive regional trade agreement.

Using the trade intensity index, the HM index and the Geodetector to analyze the evolution and influencing factors of the trade pattern between China and the Caribbean countries from 2008 to 2019. The research finds:① The total import and export trade between China and the Caribbean countries has grown rapidly, showing a trend of volatility; ② There are significant spatial differences in trade cooperation between China and Caribbean countries, which are mainly concentrated in large countries such as Mexico and Colombia;③ The trade ties between China and Caribbean countries are relatively low, but the trade relations are developing in a closer direction; ④ China mainly imports primary products such as mineral products in the Caribbean countries, and exports technology-intensive and labor-intensive products such as machinery and equipment, textiles and clothing; ⑤ The dependence of Caribbean countries' commodity exports on the Chinese market is significantly higher than the dependence of China's commodity exports on Caribbean countries, showing an asymmetrical Structure; ⑥ Economy development, resources endowment, infrastructure conditions and technological innovation levels have become important factors affecting China and Caribbean countries trade. The explanatory power of dual-factor interactive detection is higher than single-factor detection, including two types of "non-linear enhancement" and "two-factor enhancement", and "Two-factor enhancement" dominates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, China's position in the global mobile phone production network has been rising, gradually becoming the world's largest exporter of mobile phones. At the same time, with the gradual saturation of China's domestic mobile phone market, more and more manufacturers pay attention to the development of overseas markets. Through the research methods of trade flow, trade intensity index and panel data model, this paper analyzed the evolution of China's mobile phone export pattern and its influencing factors since 2007. The study found that: (1) Since 2007, China's mobile phone export has experienced three stages of slow growth, rapid growth and fluctuating growth, and its global share has been increasing. However, due to the impact of trade protectionism and COVID-19, China's mobile phone export has been shrinking since 2018. (2) The network density of China's mobile phone export continues to increase, showing a three pole pattern with East Asia, the United States and the European Union as the core; However, the concentration of mobile phone export trade network is high, and there are some security risks. (3) There is a spatial dislocation between the core node of China's mobile phone export trade network and the regions with high trade intensity index. The EU is the largest market, but the trade intensity index is not high. Africa has a small market share, but the trade intensity index is very high. ASEAN is not only the main market for China's mobile phone export, but also the region with high export dependence. (4) The main factors affecting China's mobile phone export pattern are the existing mobile phone trade pattern and political stability, followed by geographical distance, destination market scale and other factors, while China's foreign direct investment, cultural distance, business environment, technical barriers to trade and other factors have less impact. The main factors affecting China's mobile phone export pattern are the manufacturing labor price and R&D expenditure on the supply side, followed by the institutional quality and market size on the demand side, while the circulation factors have less impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates trade and investment relations between India and its two major trading partners, viz. the U.S. and China in the 2000-2010s. On the basis of mixed method research with equal use of quantitative and qualitative, as well as historical and statistical methods, the authors estimate the possibilities for expanding interstate interactions and the difficulties the countries might face. By comparing the scale and particulars of the product structure of Indo-American and Indo-Chinese trade, the authors reveal that intra-industry trade between India and the United States is at a fairly high level, which, in turn, is not typical for the trade between India and China, which is mostly inter-industry due to the sluggish cooperation of Indian and Chinese entrepreneurs. The authors assess the intensity of the Indo-American and Indo-Chinese bilateral trade between 2000-2018 by means of indices of intensity of Indias exports and imports to / from the USA and China, as well as indices of intensity of exports and imports of its partners to / from India. The obtained results outline the upward trend of the share of Indian exports to the U.S. relative to other countries, which indicates that India is successfully conquering the U.S. market, and Indian goods are becoming increasingly competitive. Meanwhile, the volume of Indian-Chinese trade remains on a much lower level than it could be expected with the current share of India in the world trade. In the meantime, neither for the United States nor for China, India is a dominant partner. The article also investigates major obstacles hindering the development of both Indo-American and Indo-Chinese bilateral relations. The obtained results enable the authors to predict that in the short- and mid-term economic cooperation between India and its leading partners is likely to strengthen, with India keeping striving for standing neuter while building the two most crucial vectors of its foreign economic policy.

This paper features the integration of trade among five founding member countries of ASEAN during the period 2001-2019. To measure the trade relations between two countries, a variety of statistical indicators are available, but in this paper trade intensity index is applied. As a general rule, when a country's trade intensity index of imports and exports is observed to be more than one with the trading partner, then it indicates a high degree of trade association between them. The empirical results signify that the pair-wise export and import intensity index of these countries is greater than one, suggesting significant trade among the member countries. The study has many policy implications. Although the trade intensity index is greater than one for all counties, the value varies, signifying the under-developed bilateral trade areas among the region which need to be focused. Further, the regional and cultural differences should be coped up to accelerate the trade in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The study tries to find pattern in the bilateral trade and impact of macro happenings like GFC, Chinese meltdown, Galwan conflict, COVID-19 on it over the period of 1995 to 2020. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study has two dimensions. The first one analyses the monthly export and import figures between India and China product wise (based on HS Code at two -digit level) from Jan2016 to Jan 2021 whereas second one focus on annual data of Indo-China Export and Import along with their annual GDP for 26 years starting from 1994 - 1995 to 2019-2020. Bilateral trades are analysed by using four tools namely-Bilateral Trade Dependence Index (BTDI); Trade Intensity Index (TII); Herfindahl Hirschmann Market Concentration Index (HHI); and Index of Export market penetration (IEMP). The study has also used Time series analysis to find the relationship between total bilateral trade and GDP of respective countries using Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test, and VAR model. Findings: The annual growth rate of import and export for India with China suggest the short-term impact of macro happenings. Research Limitations: The study has several limitations with respect to availability of very recent data, availability of cost components of trade items in respective countries etc. Managerial Implications: Policy makers for India are suggested to work towards import substitution via various programs like Make-in-India with priority of domestic productions of HS Code 85, 84, 29 which are increasing the trade deficit continuously. Originality/Value: This study is an original effort to highlight the dynamic bilateral trade relationships between India and China in last twenty-five years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relevance of this study is tied to the fact, that more effective application of export potential represents a major step towards the integration of Latvia’s economy into a unified economic framework with other European Union countries. In addition, the lack of a generally accepted methodology for assessing export potential increases the significance of these studies from a methodological point of view. The purpose of this study is to analyse the trends in Latvian exports and assess the possibilities of increasing the volume of exports of goods to the EU countries. This study applied quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis, analysis of statistical data, methods for assessing the intensity, complementarity of trade between two countries and the potential for exporting Latvian goods to EU countries. The study identifies the countries and categories of goods where Latvian trade potential to EU can be increased. The authors of the article propose criteria for determining possibility of increasing the export of various groups of goods. The paper may be of interest to all export transaction participants, including manufacturers, merchants, and professional associations. The export expansion assessment method applied by the authors may be adopted by exporting companies to identify groups of goods that have export growth reserves.

The relevance of this study is tied to the fact, that more effective application of export potential represents a major step towards the integration of Latvia’s economy into a unified economic framework with other European Union countries. In addition, the lack of a generally accepted methodology for assessing export potential increases the significance of these studies from a methodological point of view. The purpose of this study is to analyse the trends in Latvian exports and assess the possibilities of increasing the volume of exports of goods to the EU countries. This study applied quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis, analysis of statistical data, methods for assessing the intensity, complementarity of trade between two countries and the potential for exporting Latvian goods to EU countries. The study identifies the countries and categories of goods where Latvian trade potential to EU can be increased. The authors of the article propose criteria for determining possibility of increasing the export of various groups of goods. The paper may be of interest to all export transaction participants, including manufacturers, merchants, and professional associations. The export expansion assessment method applied by the authors may be adopted by exporting companies to identify groups of goods that have export growth reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Russian's position in the foreign trade relations of the Visegrad Group countries has a long history. Russian Federation is an important trading partner for them, especially in the import of energy raw materials. Poland is the most active trading partner for the Russian Federation within the Visegrad Group. In 2018, the three most exported items of the Visegrad Group to the Russian Federation were machinery and nuclear reactors, cars, and electrical machinery. Mineral fuels accounted for 85 % of the Visegrad Group imports from the Russian Federation. The trade intensity between the Visegrad Group countries and the Russian Federation in 2014 - 2018 was higher than one, except for the Czech Republic. That indicates that the Russian Federation has exported relatively more goods to Slovakia, Poland and Hungary than to the rest of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the growing presence of China in Serbia and deepening the overall bilateral relations, the main objective of the paper is to analyze the major trends and changes in the bilateral merchandise trade between both countries. The paper also focuses on exploring the main challenges as well as determinants for enhancement of trade relationships in the upcoming period. The total trade between Serbia and China has been steadily growing over the last decade. The value of total trade in 2019 compared to 2010 is increased twice, the value of imported and exported goods grew twice and almost 45 times, respectively. Despite the rapid growth, the Trade Intensity Index shows that trade between Serbia and China is under-represented, implying there is a space for improvement. Some obstacles hinder trade relations between Serbia and China. One of the main challenges stems from the fact that China shares its influence in Serbia using investments rather than trade. On the other side, Serbia does not have enough capacity to meet Chines market demand, which is among other things a result of the domination of low value-added products in the total Serbian exports. In order to overcome the obstacles, Serbia should focus on its comparative advantage as well as attracting the Chinese investment in the strategically important sectors. Furthermore, it is essential for Serbia to develop a strategic approach to trade policy towards China, which implies better promoting of export growth, relevant support of Serbian exporters as well as more active engagement around trade matters during official negotiations with China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2009, India is trying to promote trade relations with Central Asian countries namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. So the aim of the study is to look into the efforts by both the sides and estimate the Trade Intensity Index of India with Central Asian Countries. The study found that the trade deficit with Kazakhstan have continuously expanded during this time period. However, the trade balance improved with all the other central Asian countries including Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan between 2010-2018. Other than pharmaceutical products electronic machinery, mechanical machineries like boilers etc. also holds lot of potential and their share in exports is continuously rising. The trade share of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is continuously rising but share of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan is fluctuating between 2010-2018. Indian exports to Central Asia over the time period of 2010-2018 has been concentrated in the area of consumer goods but with capital good shold slot of p otential. Trade Complementarity Index of Central Asian Countries is increasing after 2010 especially in case of Turkmenistan. The policy efforts are demonstrating moderate effects. There is room for more policy interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign trade has become an important feature in transforming the relationship between different countries. In recent years Iraq’s foreign trade has excelled and it currently represents more than 73% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) suggesting an openness to trade. However, none of the studies related to foreign trade have explored Iraq’s international trade. This paper attempts to explore the intricacies of Iraq’s trade with the other countries. The trends in bilateral trades and trade intensity for the period between 2007-2017 with few chosen countries are investigated. This study throws light on the Iraq’s untapped potential to develop as a major player in an international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade is important in driving a country's economic growth. It has also become essential to go beyond own soil as the infrastructures and communications across countries are becoming better every year. Hence it is of great importance for policy makers to be able to measure the trade intensity of a country to identify market potential. A simple ratio between export and import of trade activities demonstrates imbalanced characteristics which add up to drawbacks in term of scaling, proportionality and symmetry issues of the existing Trade Intensity (TI) measurements. As such the analysis could potentially be erroneous due to biased and skewed characteristics. In addition, the existing TI measurements focus on bilateral trade activities between countries which do not explicitly address country market potential dimension for export opportunities that change throughout times. Thus we propose an innovative new measure of trade intensity focusing on precision trade between change in import and export elements which we named as "TI Index". It is geometrically symmetrical, proportional and scale invariant to the changes in market potential of all products and across the world market. The pinnacle of this paper is the design and construction of an innovative new TI index for possible use in measuring country market potential. The design and construction of the TI index is geometrically illustrated using a newly constructed Geometric Trade Intensity Space Box (GTISB). This TI index provides a single number that is easy to calculate, comparable and change sensitive across all products/countries combinations globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores alternative ways toward the East Asian monetary union, focusing on the effect of monetary integration on bilateral trade. For this purpose, we analyze with gravity model changes of the bilateral trade among countries of EU, NAFTA, and East Asia. A distinctive feature of this model is that it includes the dummy variables that show the cultural intimacy among North-East Asian countries, Asian NIEs countries, and East Asian countries (North-East Asian and ASEAN countries). We discovered that bilateral trade increased at a highest level among East Asian countries than the other two cases. This result suggests that the once-and-for-all strategy to develop an East Asian monetary union including North-East Asian and ASEAN countries would be more efficient than the multitrack strategy that forms the monetary union of North-East Asian countries in the first place and then tries to extend it to ASEAN countries.

We use Trade Intensity Index (TII) and gravity model to test the hypothesis of "natural trade partner" between China and its major trade partners reached FTA agreements with China or being under negotiation with China. We find that the TII indexes are in general on the increase but the cost of distance is still an important factor in affecting bilateral trade. We also calculate the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) between China and its FTA partners and find that the indexes are high and generally larger than 1. Even though there is a tendency of decline in TCI, the increase of Til shows that trade between China and its partners is changing from inter -- industry to intra -- industry, and so the effects of trade diversion should be small while the effects of trade creation should be larger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]