2,156 results on '"trade balance"'
Search Results
2. Does the S-curve demonstrate an asymmetrical response to fluctuations in exchange rates?
- Author
-
Ahmad, Sareer, Iqbal, Javed, Nosheen, Misbah, and Shil, Nikhil Chandra
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Empirical tests of the Marshall–Lerner condition: evidence from Egypt–BRICS commodity trade using ARDL approach.
- Author
-
Soliman, Hebatallah Ahmed
- Abstract
This study seeks to test the validity of the Marshall–Lerner (M-L) condition between Egypt and BRICS countries (five countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to determine which industries will benefit from depreciation in the long run by employing the import and export models between Egypt and the BRICS countries at the bilateral and commodity levels by selecting 69 commodities according to the harmonized system (H.S.) 2-digits—these commodities represent a significant portion of Egypt–BRICS trade—and applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test over 2001–2022. The results indicate that the M-L condition is not met at the bilateral trade level. At the commodity level, the M-L condition is held only in 8 out of 69 industries. Egypt has a comparative advantage in five of these eight industries—coded 17, 32, 55, 62, and 96—while 71, 79, and 84 have a comparative disadvantage. However, all these industries' sizes, reflected by their trade share in 2022, are small. The paper builds on previous theoretical and empirical work in this field and fills a knowledge gap by examining the M-L condition in Egypt–BRICS trade. Moreover, addressing aggregation bias through disaggregated analysis—at the bilateral level as well as at the commodity level—the study results may motivate the government and policymakers to ask for more consideration of the structure of Egypt's exports and imports with BRICS countries to capture the benefits of devaluation and joining the BRICS bloc and provide comprehensive backing for the industries where the M-L condition was met. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Corporate income taxation and external balances in the European Union.
- Author
-
Tkalec, Marina and Vukšić, Goran
- Abstract
This study examines the impact of corporate taxation on the external balances of 27 European Union member countries from the late 1990s to 2021. Using an ARDL process and a 2-stage least squares estimation procedure, we find that, in the short term, higher corporate taxation is positively and significantly related to the current account balance and the trade balance for the whole sample. There are considerable differences in the effects in the euro area and non-euro countries, with the latter experiencing a much stronger short-term impact. In the long term, there are no critical differences in the results between the two groups, and the impact of corporate taxation is positive but statistically significant only for the trade balance. The size of the impact of corporate taxation on net exports and current account balances is of similar magnitude, which likely implies that the international profit shifting via manipulating intrafirm prices in international trade does not strongly affect the external balances in our sample. Our results imply that initiatives to increase global tax rates could be justified from an international trade perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. 'One sows, another reaps': Analysing the asymmetric impact of remittance inflows on the trade balance in a large emerging economy.
- Author
-
Sahoo, Manoranjan and Padmaja, M
- Subjects
- *
BALANCE of trade , *EMERGING markets , *MIDDLE-income countries , *PETROLEUM sales & prices , *FOREIGN exchange rates , *REMITTANCES - Abstract
Remittances are regarded as an important source of foreign exchange for the majority of low and middle-income countries, and thus have the potential to impact their aggregate economic activities. The current study investigates the impact of remittance inflows and international oil prices on India's trade balance from 1975 to 2020. We use a non-linear autoregressive and distributed lag model to examine the asymmetric impact of remittance and oil price changes on trade balance. The study discovered that rising remittance inflows have a detrimental long-run impact on the trade balance. It also demonstrates that while a positive oil price shock worsens the trade balance, a negative oil price shock improves it in the long run. As a result, the paper emphasises the need to reduce skilled migration, properly channel remittance revenues, develop financial institutions, and implement more efficient exchange rate policies in order to achieve long-term trade surpluses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Does Exchange Rate Depreciation and Trade Balance Impede Economic Growth in Nigeria?
- Author
-
Adeyemi Michael Anagun and Peter Minasu Agosu
- Subjects
currency depreciation ,economic growth ,exchange rate ,trade balance ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 - Abstract
The Nigerian currency has experienced a significant depreciation due to its exchange with foreign currencies, particularly the dollar. This exchange rate depreciation affects purchasing power, real wages, foreign trade, debt servicing, macroeconomic stability, and interest rates. The study then seeks to fill a knowledge gap on the asymmetric link between exchange rate depreciation, trade balance, and economic growth in Nigeria. The Phillip-Perron and Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests found mixed stationarity, whereas the ARDL bound cointegration test revealed a long-term link between these variables. As such, the study revealed that the depreciation of the exchange rate and trade balance positively affects economic growth. As the currency weakens, interest rates and money supply rise, and the economic growth rate rises. The study uses the error correction model to correct the disequilibrium by 59.8% to correct this economic hardship in the Nigerian economy, demonstrating that exchange rate depreciation considerably influences economic growth in the long run but not in the short term. Therefore, the practical implication is that the cost of production, importation, and inflation is high, causing fiscal restraints, governmental regulations, and economic shocks to macroeconomic stability, which may all influence economic growth. They recommend that interest rates be readjusted and that the government give grants and non-interest rate loans to small and medium enterprises to mash up with the import and export of consumable goods.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
7. Exchange Rate Disconnect and the Trade Balance.
- Author
-
Bodenstein, Martin, Cuba-Borda, Pablo, Goernemann, Nils, and Presno, Ignacio
- Subjects
FOREIGN exchange rates ,BALANCE of trade ,BUSINESS cycles ,INTERMEDIATION (Finance) ,RISK sharing - Abstract
We propose a model with costly international financial intermediation that links exchange rate movements to shifts in the demand for domestically produced goods relative to the demand for imported goods (trade rebalancing). Our model is consistent with stylized facts of exchange rate dynamics, including those related to the trade balance, which is typically overlooked in the literature on exchange rate determination. In a quantitative assessment, trade rebalancing explains nearly 50 percent of exchange rate fluctuations over the business cycle, whereas exogenous deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity— the primary source of exchange rate fluctuations in the literature—account for just above 20 percent. Using data on trade flows or the trade balance is key to properly identifying the determinants of the exchange rate. Thus, our model overcomes the sharp dichotomy between the real exchange rate and the macroeconomy embedded in other models of exchange rate determination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
8. The Role of Exchange Rate in Contemporary Czechia’s Foreign Trade
- Author
-
Šimáková, Jana, author
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. Current Trends in the Development of Chinese-Mexican Trade and Economic Cooperation
- Author
-
Svetlana V. Batanova
- Subjects
latin america ,mexico ,china ,bilateral cooperation ,strategic partnership ,trading partner ,chinese capital ,attracting investment ,trade balance ,chinese economic diplomacy ,Political institutions and public administration (General) ,JF20-2112 ,Social sciences (General) ,H1-99 - Abstract
The article discusses the history of forming China and Mexico trade and economic cooperation and its current situation. Against the background of the analysis of the bilateral relations historical aspect, the current state of trade and economic relations has been studied and a number of problems have been identified. China’s high economic growth rates, the need for new markets and sources of raw materials are pushing this country to explore and develop the market of the Latin American region. Mexico, due to its geographical proximity to the United States, is of particular interest to China. The relevance of the article is due to the peculiarities of the current moment in the global situation and the active development of Chinese-Latin American relations.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
10. International remittances and trade in sub-Saharan Africa: Does size matter? Evidence from endogenous dynamic panel threshold model.
- Author
-
Issahaku, Haruna, Ustarz, Yazidu, and Domanban, Paul Bata
- Subjects
- *
CAPITAL movements , *BALANCE of trade , *MACROECONOMIC models , *INTERNATIONAL trade , *REMITTANCES , *GROSS domestic product - Abstract
Remittance has recently become an essential capital inflow, particularly for developing economies. This has generated much research interest in understanding how remittances affect developing economies. There are, however, limited studies on remittances' influence on trade. The study extends the existing body of knowledge by assessing whether the impact of remittances on trade depends on the size of inflows. As far as we know, the existing literature has not addressed this. The study period spans from 1990 to 2018, covering 32 sub-Saharan countries. Using an endogenous dynamic panel threshold model, the results reveal that although remittance deteriorates trade balance, the rate of deterioration diminishes after an estimated threshold of 2.35 per cent of remittances as a share of GDP. The results imply that when received in small amounts (below 2.35 per cent of GDP), remittances tend to stimulate consumption, leading to increased imports. However, when received in large quantities (above 2.35 per cent of GDP), remittances boost domestic investments leading to rising exports. The results are robust to alternate estimation techniques and measurement of remittances. Based on the findings, we recommend that policymakers in SSA integrate the volume of remittances received in their macroeconomic modelling frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. Exchange rate movements and trade balance in developing economies: Evidence of symmetry and country-specific asymmetries.
- Author
-
Muzammil, Muhammad, Ali, Mahnaz Muhammad, Bagh, Tanveer, and Khan, Muhammad Asif
- Subjects
- *
BALANCE of trade , *INVESTORS , *COMMERCIAL treaties , *MONEY market , *DECISION making , *DEPRECIATION - Abstract
The impact of exchange rate (ER) movements on the trade balance has been extensively debated in the literature, with conflicting views on the nature and magnitude of this effect. This paper investigates the relationship between ER movements and trade balance in developing economies, with a specific focus on bilateral analysis involving Pakistan. Employing the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, our results reveal a symmetric relationship between positive and negative ER changes and the trade balance, showing significant long-term and short-term effects across the panel of developing economies. However, country-specific asymmetries are observed, especially in the cases of India and China, and are more pronounced in each bilateral analysis, whether in the short run or long run. The study findings highlight the critical importance of maintaining a stable exchange rate policy, which can provide policymakers with precise insights into the money market and the broader economy while preventing high volatility and continuous depreciation of domestic currencies. Such measures can mitigate the long-term adverse effects of ER movements on trade agreements. The study offers valuable insights for policymakers and investors in developing economies, aiding them in making informed decisions about exchange rate policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
12. DÜNYA BELİRSİZLİK ENDEKSİ ALTINDA TÜRKİYE TİCARET DENGESİ: BİR MARKOV REJİM DEĞİŞİM ANALİZİ.
- Author
-
TOMBAK, Figen
- Subjects
- *
INTERNATIONAL trade disputes , *INTERNATIONAL trade , *COVID-19 pandemic , *FINANCIAL crises , *INDEPENDENT variables - Abstract
Unforeseen uncertainties such as wars, financial crises, trade wars and the Covid-19 pandemic in recent years may cause countries to experience macroeconomic instability. Macroeconomic instabilities can affect the economic decisions of households and companies, thus causing a decrease in investments, suppression of economic growth, a decrease in international trade volume and deterioration of foreign trade balances. In this context, in this study, the impact of uncertainties on Turkey's trade balance was tried to be explained with the Markov Regime Change Model. The main purpose of the study is to explain how uncertainties affect Turkey's trade balance in both expansion and contraction regimes with this model. In the model, quarterly data for the period 1998q1-2020q4 was used. While the trade balance (export/import) is the dependent variable, the World Uncertainty Index and the real effective exchange rate are the independent variables. According to the results of the study, the world uncertainty index has a positive sign and is statistically significant in both the expansion regime and the contraction regime. It can be said that the increase in uncertainties in both regimes increases Turkey's trade balance. The real effective exchange rate was statistically insignificant in both regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
13. A New Tri‐channel Decomposition of External Adjustment: Model and Application.
- Author
-
Hu, Wangyin, Xia, Guangtao, and Li, Yingting
- Abstract
In this study, we expanded upon the current benchmark model of external adjustment and dissected the concept of international financial adjustment into two distinct components: valuation effect and investment income. Our enhanced model, which we refer to as "tri‐channel model," incorporates three key elements: trade balance, valuation effect, and investment income. Using a consolidated quarterly dataset that encompassed China's balance of payments and international investment positions from 1998 to 2020, we estimated the relative importance of the three newly introduced adjustment channels to China's cyclical external imbalance. We found that the trade balance channel played a major role, accounting for approximately 76 percent of cyclical external adjustment. The contribution of the investment income channel to cyclical external adjustment (21 percent) was much greater than that of the valuation effect channel (3 percent). These findings imply that policy responses to the cyclical external imbalance in China should focus more on the trade balance and investment incomes channels rather than exploiting the valuation effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
14. Exploring the dynamics of the balance of payments problems: the case of Afghanistan.
- Author
-
Sultani, Abdul Hadi and Faisal, U.
- Subjects
GRANGER causality test ,EXTERNAL debts ,PUBLIC spending ,INTERNATIONAL trade ,FISCAL policy ,BALANCE of trade ,BALANCE of payments - Abstract
This study analyzes the size, behavior, and responsible factors behind the balance of payments (BOP) problems in Afghanistan from 2004 to 2020. Since the impact of the real indicators on the BOP of Afghanistan still remains unexplored, this article comprehensively analyzes the primary responsible factors for the BOP problems in Afghanistan. First, a comprehensive critical analysis of the BOP and its components is performed. Second, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is conducted to empirically scrutinize the influence of fiscal policy variables like government spending (GEX), tax on international trade (TIT), external debt (EXD), and GDP on the BOP. The empirical results revealed that GDP has a significantly positive impact on Afghanistan's BOP in the long run, whereas the influence of GEX on the BOP is significantly negative. Furthermore, it was found that TIT and EXD have insignificant association with BOP. Although there is a meaningful convergence towards long-run equilibrium with an adjustment speed of 94.95% in each period, none of the covariates has a significant effect on the BOP in the short run. Furthermore, the Granger causality test exposed a bidirectional causality between GEX and BOP and a one-way causation from GDP to BOP. The study recommends structural changes in the economy to increase domestic production and improvements in the composition and direction of exports and imports, redirect government spending in favor of domestic producers, and source external debt with improved debt conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
15. The Relationship Between Cryptocurrencies and the Trade Balance of Nigeria.
- Author
-
ÇETİN, Hüseyin and SÜRMEN, Yunus Emre
- Subjects
CRYPTOCURRENCIES ,BLOCKCHAINS ,BALANCE of trade ,INVESTORS - Abstract
Copyright of TESAM Academy Journal is the property of Tesam Academy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
16. Building bridges: impact of regional cooperation and the belt and road initiative integration on Afghanistan's trade balance.
- Author
-
Zaki, Zakirullah, Guiliang Tian, and Rafiq, Imran
- Subjects
REGIONAL cooperation ,BELT & Road Initiative ,BALANCE of trade ,FOREIGN investments - Abstract
The main purpose of the study is to shed light on how the Belt and Road Initiative, Foreign Direct Investment, and Regional Cooperation affect Afghanistan's Trade Balance. In research, we used a mixed-methods approach to thoroughly investigate the relationships among distinct variables. The exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and reliability analysis were carried out using SPSS and AMOS was utilized in the research to validate the data and establish a measurement model, for confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The study found that integration with BRI has a significant impact on Afghanistan's trade balance (M = 3.925, SD = 1.048), with effective regional cooperation Afghanistan can enhance trade, ease barriers, and promote cooperation with neighbouring countries (M = 4.017, SD = 1.095). Trade Balance (M = 3.938, SD = 1.112), Also, the importance of attracting FDI is to boost exports and reduce dependence on imports and it is necessary to implement policies for sustainable development (M = 3.983, SD = 1.096). To promote trade, and cooperation and ensure prosperity in the region, the governments can utilize strategic cooperation and create investment opportunities. In conclusion, the study found the importance of cooperation, strategies, and attracting FDI to address both trade facilitation and promote investment for a positive impact on trade balance and influence development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
17. Does unregulated exchange rate asymmetrically affect trade balance? An empirical evidence from Somalia
- Author
-
Abdimalik Ali Warsame, Ibrahim Abdukadir Sheik-Ali, and Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie
- Subjects
Exchange rate ,Somali shillings ,trade balance ,linear ARDL ,nonlinear ARDL ,Economics ,Finance ,HG1-9999 ,Economic theory. Demography ,HB1-3840 - Abstract
Somalia has been a stateless nation for over two decades, where government institutions have been destroyed and malfunctioned, including the central bank. Consequently, this ruled out the control and regulation of the money supply and exchange rate by the central bank. This study investigates the effect of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance in Somalia over the period 1984–2018. Using the nonlinear ARDL model, the results show the presence of asymmetric long-term effects of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance. The study finds that currency depreciation worsens trade balance both in the long- and short-run, while long-term currency appreciation has a significant impact on trade balance but significant positive short-run effects on the trade balance. Overall, the study confirms the absence of the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-curve effect, validated by several econometric methodologies for robustness. Our study suggests that reforms in the exchange rate system and monetary policies can restore the credibility and stability of the Somali shilling, which can boost trade and investment.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
18. Exchange rates and trade balance in West African economy and monetary union countries: does the content of the traded goods matter?
- Author
-
Camille Detondji Guidime, Adama Diaw, and Barthélémy Biao
- Subjects
Real exchange rate ,nature of goods exchanged ,trade balance ,ARDL model ,WAEMU countries ,Economics and development ,Finance ,HG1-9999 ,Economic theory. Demography ,HB1-3840 - Abstract
This paper analyzes the role of the nature of traded goods in the effect of the real exchange rate on the trade balance in West African Economy and Monetary Union countries. Empirically, the estimation of the parameters of a distributed lag autoregressive model using the technique of dynamic common correlation estimators is carried out. The results show that, firstly, the low level of intra-industry trade comfort positive real exchange rate effect on trade balance. However, WAEMU countries export raw materials used by their foreign trading partners to manufacture products, which WAEMU countries import in turn; but the raw materials percentage used in the manufacture of those products is negligible to have a beneficial impact on trade balance. Secondly, foreign income levels are less favorable to the countries’ balance of trade, as partners have a preference for increasingly sophisticated goods that WAEMU countries do not produce. In terms of economic policy implications, a currency devaluation would have an expected positive effect if trade policy would encourage the consumption of goods and services containing, in their manufacturing process, a significant quantity of their exported products. This article contributes to the existing economic literature by taking into account the characteristics of traded goods in the analysis of the influence of the real exchange rate on the trade balance. A low content of exported goods in the manufacturing process of imported goods from a less advanced country could limit the rebalancing of its trade balance following a change in the real exchange rate.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
19. Trade and Markets
- Author
-
May, Christian, Mertens, Daniel, Nölke, Andreas, Schedelik, Michael, May, Christian, Mertens, Daniel, Nölke, Andreas, and Schedelik, Michael
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
20. A Study on the Tendencies in the Trade Balance of the Indian Economy
- Author
-
Devi, K. Vinodha, Raju, V., Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series Editor, Hamdan, Allam, editor, and Aldhaen, Esra Saleh, editor
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. Oil prices, renewable energy consumption and trade balance nexus: empirical evidence from Indian economy
- Author
-
Kaushik, Ketki and Shastri, Shruti
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
22. AN ANALYSIS OF TRADE BALANCE AND MAIN ACTIVITIES OF ROMANIAN SUBSIDIARIES OF TRANSNATIONAL COMPANIES DURING THE PERIOD 2014-2022
- Author
-
ION PĂNESCU and NICOLETA-ELENA CRISTEA
- Subjects
external trade ,trade balance ,dynamic equilibrium ,spillover effect ,fdi impact ,transnational companies ,multinational enterprise ,Commercial geography. Economic geography ,HF1021-1027 ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 - Abstract
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is to an increasing extent given credit for the economic development of a country along with the creation of new jobs, foreign capital, technology and knowledge transfer, generating positive spillover effects or the opportunity of joining global value chains. In the current paper the authors aim to investigate the impact of the subsidiaries of transnational companies (TNCs) which operate in Romania and carry out foreign trade activities on the trade balance of Romania during the period 2014-2022. The analysis demonstrates they generate a significant surplus in the case of services and a deficit in the case of goods, the surplus surpassing the deficit until 2018. Beginning with 2019, the high growth rate of deficits can no longer be balanced through a slower growth rate of surpluses resulting from the trade in services. Other findings reveal the sectors contributing the most to these imbalances: the manufacturing industry, telecommunications and information technology, manufacturing services and transportation generate a large surplus and trade generates a huge deficit. Data was extracted from BNR FDI annual reports, issued during 2013-2022, based on Combined Nomenclature and the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, 6th edition (BPM6) methodology. The research might be extended with the identification and evolution of TNCs at the microeconomic level, and subsequently studying the case of key multinational companies.
- Published
- 2024
23. Environmental pollution, trade balance, human development index, foreign direct investment, and natural resources rent impacts on initial public offering (IPO) variability in Pakistan: using asymmetric nardl co-integration approach.
- Author
-
Tajuddin, Ahmad Hakimi, Mehmood, Waqas, Ali, Anis, Mohd-Rashid, Rasidah, and Aman-Ullah, Attia
- Subjects
FOREIGN investments ,NATURAL resources ,HUMAN Development Index ,GOING public (Securities) ,BALANCE of trade - Abstract
This study looked at the asymmetric (nonlinear) links between Pakistan's environmental pollution, trade balance, human development index, foreign direct investment, natural resource rent, and IPO variability. The research used an annual data set from 1992 to 2019 and applied a unique co-integrating method known as asymmetric ARDL co-integration approach. The macroeconomic variables of environmental pollution, trade balance, human development index, foreign direct investment, and natural resource rent were found to have significant influences on IPO variability in both long-run and short-run asymmetric impacts. These findings highlight the important roles of the used variables in increasing IPO variability. This research suggests that Pakistan's weak macroeconomic conditions reflect the country's inadequate capital market growth. The country's lower IPO variability indicates a lack of trust among potential issuers and investors as a result of Pakistan's weak macroeconomic indices. The determined asymmetric results may be valuable for Pakistan's policymaking and stock market forecasting. Ignoring fundamental asymmetries may lead to misrepresentations of the implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
24. PROCYCLICAL ECONOMIC POLICY AND RISKS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH SUSTAINABILITY IN ROMANIA.
- Author
-
TOBĂ, Daniel, SIMION, Dalia, and TÎRCĂ, Diana-Mihaela
- Subjects
- *
ECONOMIC policy , *SUSTAINABLE development , *BUSINESS cycles , *PRICE inflation , *ECONOMIC expansion , *DEMAND forecasting - Abstract
The current situation of the Romanian economy must be understood beginning from the analysis of the main measures of fiscal-budgetary policy applied over the last years by the public authority. In general, the Romanian fiscal policy (before and after accession) was procyclical. However, we continue by presenting some of its characteristics for the past years when we underwent the last ascending phase of the economic cycle. Actually, Romania's GDP exceeded constantly the potential level, and the demand surplus became predominant, generating inflationary pressures. Maintaining the expansionist level of the fiscal policy, in the conditions of a positive deviation of GDP, as of 2017, and opting-out regarding the structural deficit target contributed to affecting the stability of public finances, on short-and medium-term. Romania entered into an extremely difficult economic context, generated by the pandemic, with an extremely narrow fiscal space which limited a lot the possibilities of combating the effects of the pandemic. In this paper we analyzed a period limited to the year 2020, because we consider this time as marking the end of an economic cycle in a period of peace and economic calm, as another is about to begin based on the new realities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
25. Analysis of Mexican Cocoa ( Theobroma cacao) Competitiveness.
- Author
-
Rivera-López, Samuel, Nuñez-Betacourt, Ernest Yasser, Revilla-Chaviano, Alejandro, and Luquez-Gaitan, Carlos Ernesto
- Subjects
CACAO ,BALANCE of trade ,PRODUCTION quantity ,INTERNATIONAL markets ,MARKET share ,COCOA - Abstract
Copyright of Revista Ciencia y Tecnología Agropecuaria is the property of Agrosavia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
26. Asymmetric effects of exchange rate on bilateral tourism trade balance: evidence from Turkey.
- Author
-
Ölmez, Fevzi and Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek
- Subjects
- *
FOREIGN exchange rates , *BALANCE of trade , *BILATERAL trade , *INTERNATIONAL tourism , *TURKISH lira , *NATIONAL currencies , *EMERGING markets - Abstract
As an emerging economy, Turkey has experienced a significant structural transformation in the last twenty years. Within this period, Turkey has increased to the eleventh rank for international tourist arrivals in the world (UNWTO 2023). However, in recent years, there has been a rapid depreciation of the national currency, raising the question of how this affects the tourism trade. Using bilateral data and considering non-linearities, we investigate the exchange rate-tourism balance nexus for Turkey and its most tourist sender partners by applying ARDL and NARDL modelling. We find that (i) when the Turkish Lira (TL) appreciates, the tourism balance is positively affected in the German and UK models in the short-run and in the Russian and Netherlands models in the long-run; (ii) the depreciation of the TL, on the other hand, has a positive effect on the tourism balances for France and the UK in the short-run. Therefore, either the increase or decrease in the exchange rate (except for Russia in the short-run) affects the tourism balance insignificantly or positively. These findings imply that policymakers should focus more on country-specific tourism policies to attract more tourists to the country rather than on exchange rate policies to manage the tourism balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
27. NEW TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN UNION RAW SILK TRADE IN THE PERIOD 2013-2022.
- Author
-
POPESCU, Agatha, DINU, Toma Adrian, STOIAN, Elena, ŞERBAN, Valentin, and CIOCAN, Horia Nicolae
- Subjects
- *
SILK , *BALANCE of trade , *SYNTHETIC fibers , *SILK production , *NATURAL fibers - Abstract
The purpose of this research was to identify the main tendencies in raw silk trade at the global level and in the EU main producing and trading countries like China and India in Asia, and Italy, France, Romania, Germany and Spain in the EU. To attain this goal, the data referred to the last decade divided into two sub-periods 2013-2017 and 2018-2022 for allowing the comparison and quantification of the differences. The methodological procedures included the use of fixed basis indices, absolute and relative differences among sub-periods, comparison, trend regression equations and R square served as statistical tools to process the data from ITC and OEC World. The results pointed out the decline by 43.2% in world raw silk production which attained 91 thousand MT in 2022 vs 2013. The global raw silk export decreased from USD 3.12 Billion in 2013 to USD 1.91 Billion in 2022 (-38.8%), while the import went down by 38.8% from USD 2.41 Billion to USD 1.65 Billion (-31.54%). In consequence, trade balance remained positive at USD 0.26 Billion in 2022, but being 2.5 times smaller than in 2013. In the EU, in 2022, raw silk export was USD 0.46 Billion (-46.5% lower vs 2013), while import value attained USD 0.62 Billion (- 37.4% vs 2013), resulting a negative balance of - USD 0.16 Billion. China maintained its top position as a silk producer and exporter, with a positive trade balance, but negative in 2020-2022. The Asian competitors India, Uzbekistan and Vietnam increased production and their trade as well. The EU is a very important raw silk importer, so that its trade balance is negative (-USD 0.16 Billion in 2022). Italy is a remarkable top silk importer in the world, and France, Romania, Germany and Spain are also representatives. Silk textiles remain of high attraction for fashion industry, a reason to expect as production and commerce to flourish in the future, as in the EU is a new orientation to reduce the wastes caused by fast fashion based on synthetic fibers and to encourage the production of healthier and environment friendly natural fibers like silk which has to sustain fashion, textile and apparel industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
28. Mobile and internet usage, institutions and the trade balance: Evidence from African countries.
- Author
-
Nguyen, Canh Phuc, Doytch, Nadia, Schinckus, Christophe, and Su, Thanh Dinh
- Subjects
WIRELESS Internet ,MOBILE commerce ,BALANCE of trade ,COUNTRIES - Abstract
This study examines the influences of institutions, the Internet and mobile usage on the trade balance of African countries between 2003 and 2017. Our empirical results have been estimated with a panel‐corrected standard error method (PSCE) and they have been confirmed by several alternative techniques. First, the increase of internet usage and mobile usage has a significant negative effect on total and inter‐continental trade balances while these factors improve the intra‐African trade balances. Second, better institutions appear to have a negative impact on the total‐, inter‐, and intra‐African trade balances – in other words, better institutions appear to stimulate imports rather than exports. This observation explains the decreasing trends in the current account balances of African countries. Third, the combined effect of the three factors (institutions, internet, and mobile use together) has a significant positive impact on all trade balances: total‐, inter‐, and intra‐continental. Our study shows that an improvement in institutional quality acts as a mitigating factor for any negative impact internet\mobile development might cause on the trade balances of African countries. Further, our analysis examines the influence of institutions, internet usage, and mobile usage on the two parts of the trade: exports and imports. We observe that internet and mobile can influence negatively and differently impact the two wings of the balance trade. However, all improvements in institutions and their associations with internet usage and mobile usage have a significant positive impact on the trade balance especially on exporting activities of African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
29. The Fishing and Aquaculture Production of Latin America with Respect to the Trade Balance and Foreign Investment
- Author
-
de las Mercedes Jaime Muñiz, Rebeca and del Río, Juan Antonio Jimber
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. Optimum Level of Currency Reserves: Investigation and Forecasting of Indian Rupee Using ARIMA Model
- Author
-
Deepak, J. Peter Leo, Subramanian, Yavana Rani, Lalitha, J. Josephine, and Vidhya, K.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
31. Parallel exchange rate market and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria: SVAR approach
- Author
-
Bello, Kehinde Mary
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
32. AN ANALYSIS OF TRADE BALANCE AND MAIN ACTIVITIES OF ROMANIAN SUBSIDIARIES OF TRANSNATIONAL COMPANIES DURING THE PERIOD 2014-2022.
- Author
-
PĂNESCU, ION and CRISTEA, NICOLETA-ELENA
- Subjects
GLOBAL value chains ,SUBSIDIARY corporations ,BALANCE of trade ,FOREIGN investments ,INTERNATIONAL trade ,INFORMATION technology ,CREDIT - Abstract
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is to an increasing extent given credit for the economic development of a country along with the creation of new jobs, foreign capital, technology and knowledge transfer, generating positive spillover effects or the opportunity of joining global value chains. In the current paper the authors aim to investigate the impact of the subsidiaries of transnational companies (TNCs) which operate in Romania and carry out foreign trade activities on the trade balance of Romania during the period 2014-2022. The analysis demonstrates they generate a significant surplus in the case of services and a deficit in the case of goods, the surplus surpassing the deficit until 2018. Beginning with 2019, the high growth rate of deficits can no longer be balanced through a slower growth rate of surpluses resulting from the trade in services. Other findings reveal the sectors contributing the most to these imbalances: the manufacturing industry, telecommunications and information technology, manufacturing services and transportation generate a large surplus and trade generates a huge deficit. Data was extracted from BNR FDI annual reports, issued during 2013-2022, based on Combined Nomenclature and the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, 6th edition (BPM6) methodology. The research might be extended with the identification and evolution of TNCs at the microeconomic level, and subsequently studying the case of key multinational companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
33. Dynamic Elasticities of the Trade Balance of Brazilian Agriculture in Relation to the Exchange Rate.
- Author
-
de Azevedo, Dalylla Soares, Arruda, Elano Ferreira, de Brito, Antônio Clécio, and Castelar, Pablo
- Subjects
BALANCE of trade ,ELASTICITY (Economics) ,FOREIGN exchange rates ,DYNAMIC balance (Mechanics) ,EMERGING markets ,AGRICULTURE - Abstract
This work examines the elasticities of the Brazilian agricultural trade balance in a dynamic, or non-linear, perspective since emerging economies such as Brazil are quite susceptible to internal and external shocks that can produce asymmetries in these elasticities. To this end, data from January 2000 to July 2019 are used, along with a time-varying cointegration analysis. The results suggest that the elasticities of the net exports in relation to the real exchange rate and foreign income were positive and elastic in practically the entire period considered. Domestic income had a negative influence, but with inelastic impacts and less variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
34. Do Exchange Rate Changes Improve the Trade Balance in GCC Countries: Evidence from Nonlinear Panel Cointegration.
- Author
-
Barkat, Karim, Jarallah, Shaif, and Alsamara, Mouyad
- Subjects
BALANCE of trade ,FOREIGN exchange rates ,COINTEGRATION ,DEPRECIATION ,COUNTRIES - Abstract
This study examines the asymmetric impact of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) on the trade balance in GCC countries over the period of 2000:Q1 to 2017:Q4. The empirical findings of the nonlinear pooled mean group (PMG) estimator reveal the presence of a J-curve shape where an increase in NEER (currency depreciation) deteriorates the trade balance in the short run and improves it in the long run. Findings also prove that the trade balance's response to NEER positive changes is greater compared to negative changes. The policy implication of these findings reveals that NEER is a useful tool to sustain the trade balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. Does the export-to-import ratio affect environmental sustainability? Evidence from BRICS countries.
- Author
-
Rahman, Md. Mominur and Halim, Md. Abdul
- Subjects
SUSTAINABLE investing ,BALANCE of trade ,STANDARD of living ,SUSTAINABILITY ,ENVIRONMENTAL degradation - Abstract
The study aims to examine the effects of trade balance, economic growth, green field investment, energy use, financial development, and urbanization on environmental sustainability in BRICS countries. This study proceeds to estimate the long-term association using the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and the dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) panel estimation methods for the years 1991–2020. This empirical study finds that the ratio of exports to imports has a negative effect on environmental degradation. This indicates that increasing the trade balance eventually leads to environmental sustainability, which finally improves living standards and environmental conditions in the BRICS countries. The findings further show that green field investment and financial development substantially improve environmental sustainability, but energy use, urbanization, and economic growth desperately negatively affect environmental sustainability. Additionally, this research finds a unidirectional relationship of environmental sustainability with trade balance, green field investment, energy use, urbanization, and economic growth rate. This study states how BRICS countries can be protected through trade balance controlling environmental degradation. Thus, this research provides improved orientations to the policymakers of BRICS countries to design policy in favor of the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
36. The Effect of GDP, FDI, and Inflation to Trade Balance in 12 APEC Countries.
- Author
-
Lumayung, Galih Aga, Amalia Lubis, Firsty Ramadhona, Fadilah, Nizaul Ngulum, Faudzi, Maman, and Sukarniati, Lestari
- Subjects
BALANCE of trade ,FOREIGN investments ,INTERNATIONAL relations ,ECONOMIC impact ,GROSS domestic product - Abstract
This research analyzes the factors that affect the trade balance in 12 APEC countries because trade balance is one of the important factors for economic growth. The level of prosperity and economy of a country can be measured by its active trading activities. This activity can be a source of income for countries. So, it can be said that the strength of a country’s economy is its trade. Through trade, a country can establish diplomatic relations with other countries. This research uses panel data model with trade balance as a dependent variable, and gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and inflation as independent variables. This research uses data from 2011-2020. The result is that GDP does not have significance with the trade balance, FDI has a positive significance for trade balance, and inflation has a negative significance with trade balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
37. Exportaciones mineras México-China: un análisis desde el enfoque de las ventajas comparativas reveladas. 2001-2019.
- Author
-
Orozco Plascencia, José Manuel, Juárez Morones, Sofía, and Mendoza Contreras, Ana Isabel
- Subjects
- *
SILVER mining , *COPPER , *ECONOMIC impact , *SUPPLY & demand , *EXPORT marketing - Abstract
Mining exports have a large share in Mexican exports, on the other hand, China has a high demand for minerals to carry out its development plans. This paper evaluates the economic impact of Mexican mining exports in the Chinese market. Likewise, an analysis of the mining sector for both economies is carried out. For this purpose, the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RVA) method is used to find which Mexican mining products are the ones with RCA in the Chinese market. The results reveal that silver leads the mining sector, but copper is the leader in exports to China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
38. Exchange Rate Movements and China-East Africa Trade Balance: A New Perspective From RMB.
- Author
-
Pengyu Ren and Sakouba, Ibrahim
- Subjects
- *
FOREIGN exchange rates , *BALANCE of trade , *COINTEGRATION , *BALANCE of payments , *FOREIGN trade regulation , *INTERNATIONAL trade - Abstract
This study estimates the long-term impact of Chinese RMB exchange rate movements on the trade balance between China and the Eastern African Belt and Road Initiative countries. The Pedroni cointegration analysis and the fully modified and dynamic OLS techniques are applied to the dataset from UNComtrade and China Statistical Yearbook 2019. Some specification novelties are the use of imports and exports as independent variables. By so doing, the paper proposes an alternative measure of the trade balance. We find that the RMB exchange rate movements are stable during the sample period and slightly affect the trade balance between China and the Eastern African BRI countries. Additionally, the study does not find evidence supporting the J-curve effect in China-East Africa trade balance. The empirical results suggest that the Eastern African BRI countries would gain much more trading collectively with China than individually. Therefore, the study strongly recommends that the East African Community accelerate its integration process and establish Export Quotas for trade outside the bloc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. دٔر انتجـــبرة انخبرجٛت انكهٛت ٔانسراعٛت انًظــرٚت فٙ انتًُٛــت االقتظبدٚت.
- Author
-
عبْر يحًذ حسٍ, أحًذ فؤاد يشٕٓر, جٓٛبٌ عهٗ عهٗ يتٕ, and يحًذ أيٍٛ يظٛهحٙ
- Abstract
Egypt took a set of measures that directly affected the movement and direction of agricultural foreign trade, including: its success in passing the fourth review of its trade policies, its hosting of the conference to sign the free trade agreement between the African economic blocs (COMESA-SADC- East African Community), and the formulation of a program to reduce the burdens of exports. As of July 2020, the intervention will remove nontariff restrictions to facilitate the access of Egyptian products to major export markets. Despite these measures, there are many fears of a decrease in government revenues, as the total deficit in the state's general budget for the fiscal year 2022/2023 reached about 558.2 billion L.E., representing about 6.2% of the gross domestic product. The research aimed to measure the impact of the measures included in the government's economic policies by analyzing the impact of some of these policies on agricultural output, national output, and various trade balances during the period (2001-2020). One of the most important results is that there was an increase in both the average total and agricultural exports. And increasing their average contribution to both the gross domestic product and the agricultural product. The average volume of total and agricultural trade increased between the two study periods by an estimated rate of 142.28% and 104.46%, respectively, in exchange for an increase in the average deficit in both the trade and agricultural balance. At the same time, the average exchange rate increased from about 5.73 L.E./dollar in the first period to about 11.17 L.E./dollar in the second period, an increase estimated at 95.14%. It also became clear that there is a statistically significant direct relationship between total exports and gross domestic product, and between agricultural exports and agricultural domestic product. It turns out that there is a positive, statistically significant relationship between the decline in the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound and the increase in the value of both total and agricultural exports and imports. From the SWOT analysis of the Egyptian foreign trade sector, it was found that the diversity of the Egyptian economy is considered strengths that enhance its ability to face internal and external challenges and potential for growth. On the other hand, it suffers from some weak factors that limit export capacity, such as the weak response of the flexibility of the production structure to changes in global markets. The trade sector should exploit the presence of government support, and open areas for the localization of modern and advanced technologies. And work to confront internal and external threats that prevent the optimal use of export energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
40. Is there a waterbed effect generated by carbon reduction policies? A parallel EU-27 - China.
- Author
-
Mitu, Narcis Eduard and Stanciu, Cristian Valeriu
- Subjects
CARBON emissions ,ENVIRONMENTAL policy ,GOVERNMENT policy on climate change ,CLIMATE change ,INTERNATIONAL trade - Abstract
This study explores the phenomenon known as the waterbed effect in the context of carbon emission reduction policies, focusing on a comparison between the EU-27 and China. This is an economic metaphor used to describe the migration of phenomena from one place to another following the implementation of restrictive policies, especially between regions with differing regulatory standards. Global trade dynamics play a crucial role, with trade relationships between the EU-27 and China influencing carbon emissions. Despite EU-27 efforts, the trade deficit with China has widened, leading to a disproportionate increase in emissions. Analysed data indicate the existence of a waterbed effect concerning carbon emissions between the two regions, potentiated by the redistribution of emissions due to disparities in environmental regulations and production outsourcing. Thus, the study reveals a correlation between trade imbalances and carbon emissions, with China's emissions surpassing those of the EU-27 in recent years. Efforts to curb emissions within the EU-27 are undermined by the waterbed effect, exacerbating global climate challenges. Moreover, the waterbed effect evolves into a "move the goalposts" phenomenon, emphasizing the need for comprehensive and collaborative climate policies. This analysis contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics between climate policy and the global distribution of carbon emissions, with notable implications for the development and future implementation of environmental policies worldwide. Addressing climate change requires a multifaceted approach, with EU-27 climate policies playing a crucial role. To effectively mitigate climate change, EU-27 policies must advocate for international agreements, contribute to global conservation efforts, and implement domestic policies with minimal economic impact. Additionally, recognizing the interconnectedness of global emissions and trade dynamics is essential to developing sustainable solutions. Ultimately, a collective effort is needed to combat climate change, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive and equitable climate policies on a global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
41. Does unregulated exchange rate asymmetrically affect trade balance? An empirical evidence from Somalia.
- Author
-
Warsame, Abdimalik Ali, Sheik-Ali, Ibrahim Abdukadir, and Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu
- Abstract
Somalia has been a stateless nation for over two decades, where government institutions have been destroyed and malfunctioned, including the central bank. Consequently, this ruled out the control and regulation of the money supply and exchange rate by the central bank. This study investigates the effect of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance in Somalia over the period 1984–2018. Using the nonlinear ARDL model, the results show the presence of asymmetric long-term effects of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance. The study finds that currency depreciation worsens trade balance both in the long- and short-run, while long-term currency appreciation has a significant impact on trade balance but significant positive short-run effects on the trade balance. Overall, the study confirms the absence of the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-curve effect, validated by several econometric methodologies for robustness. Our study suggests that reforms in the exchange rate system and monetary policies can restore the credibility and stability of the Somali shilling, which can boost trade and investment. IMPACT STATEMENT: Somalia has been a stateless nation for over two decades where government institutions destructed and became malfunctioning including the central bank. Consequently, this ruled out the control and regulation of money supply and exchange rate by the central bank. The informal unregulated exchange rate market causes serious problems to the Somali economy. Specifically, it constantly increases the inflation rate by raising the price of imported goods given that Somalia is a highly import-dependent country. Additionally, the unregulated exchange rate depreciation does not only raise the price of imported goods, but it also erodes the purchasing power of the low-earning workers who receive their salary in Somali Shillings—thereby causing many households vulnerable to multidimensional poverty. This paper investigates the effect of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance in Somalia over the period 1984–2018. Using the nonlinear ARDL model, the results show the presence of asymmetric long-term effects of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance. The study finds that currency depreciation worsens trade balance in both the long- and short-run, while long-term currency appreciation has no significant impact on trade balance but has significant positive short-run effects on the trade balance. Our study suggests reforms in the exchange rate system and monetary policies restore credibility and stability of the Somali shilling which can boost trade and investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
42. Exchange rates and trade balance in West African economy and monetary union countries: does the content of the traded goods matter?
- Author
-
Guidime, Camille Detondji, Diaw, Adama, and Biao, Barthélémy
- Abstract
This paper analyzes the role of the nature of traded goods in the effect of the real exchange rate on the trade balance in West African Economy and Monetary Union countries. Empirically, the estimation of the parameters of a distributed lag autoregressive model using the technique of dynamic common correlation estimators is carried out. The results show that, firstly, the low level of intra-industry trade comfort positive real exchange rate effect on trade balance. However, WAEMU countries export raw materials used by their foreign trading partners to manufacture products, which WAEMU countries import in turn; but the raw materials percentage used in the manufacture of those products is negligible to have a beneficial impact on trade balance. Secondly, foreign income levels are less favorable to the countries' balance of trade, as partners have a preference for increasingly sophisticated goods that WAEMU countries do not produce. In terms of economic policy implications, a currency devaluation would have an expected positive effect if trade policy would encourage the consumption of goods and services containing, in their manufacturing process, a significant quantity of their exported products. This article contributes to the existing economic literature by taking into account the characteristics of traded goods in the analysis of the influence of the real exchange rate on the trade balance. A low content of exported goods in the manufacturing process of imported goods from a less advanced country could limit the rebalancing of its trade balance following a change in the real exchange rate. IMPACT STATEMENT: The importance of this research is to empirically show the significant role of the quantity of domestic goods contained in the manufacture of imported goods in studying the relationship between exchange rate changes and the trade balance. The implementation of a specific trade policy coupled with an exchange rate policy in favour of the transformation of primary products into semi-manufactured goods is important for the economy of WAEMU countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
43. Sustainable Development of Intermodal Freight Transportation—Through the Integration of Logistics Flows in Ukraine and Poland.
- Author
-
Jacyna-Gołda, Ilona, Shmygol, Nadiia, Gavkalova, Nataliia, and Salwin, Mariusz
- Abstract
Nowadays, sustainable development is becoming a model for significant improvements in the modern world. Taking into consideration possible future challenges, transport must have sustainable features. Today, such a type of transportation as intermodal transport (transport that uses more than one mode of transportation) is gaining relevance. It is one of the most promising types of transport from an economic and environmental point of view. In this paper, the importance of sustainable development of intermodal freight transport is analyzed; the state of foreign trade and the trade balance in Ukraine and Poland are examined; and the sustainable development trends and prospects of trade relations between two countries are determined, taking into account the existing product structure. It is noted that the post-war recovery of Ukraine will require the activation of logistical flows with EU countries. The analysis of the state of freight transport by various modes of transport allowed for theoretically justifying the insufficient attention given to the development of intermodal freight transport between Ukraine and Poland for logistics optimization in international trade. From a methodological perspective, it is proposed to describe the subject area in terms of graph theory. The practical contribution involved the testing of the proposed model of intermodal freight transport to optimize logistics flows in international trade between Ukraine and Poland, considering the minimization of transport service costs and time. This required refining the mathematical apparatus based on the method of successive moves and linking their development to specific supply chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
44. واکن ش اقتصا د ایرا ن نسب ت ب ه سیاس تهای پول ی و ارز ی ب ا تکی ه ب ر بخ ش خارج ی و رویکر د تحلی ل تعاد ل عموم ی پویای تصادف ی
- Author
-
یوسف الباجی, کریم آذربایجانی, and سعید دائی کریم زاده
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
45. The Effect of Membership in Trade Agreements on Iran's Agricultural Bilateral Trade Balance.
- Author
-
Hosseini, Elham Mehrparvar, Rafiee, Hamed, Rostamzadeh, Zeinab, and Aminizadeh, Milad
- Abstract
Introduction: Nowadays, the membership of countries in trade agreements has opened a new space for the economic movement of different countries by facilitating trade through deregulation, dismantling tariff and support borders, increasing integration of national and regional markets, and access to different markets. But for all the benefits stated for agreements in facilitating trade conditions, the state of trade balance between countries in different economic sectors following membership in the agreements is not clear. Materials and Methods: Therefore, in this article, the effect of Iran's membership in regional trade preferences agreements, the Global System of Trade Preferences and the Economic Cooperation Organization on its agricultural bilateral trade balance with 45 major trading partners using the Gravity model in the period 2001-2017 has been investigated. Findings: According to the results, Iran's membership in trade agreements has significantly diminished Iran's agricultural trade balance. Also, the variables of income (0.997) and population (2.013) of trading partners, being high income country and common land border have a positive and significant effect and variables of exchange rate (-0.690), Iranian income (-1.005), distance and global financial crisis have a negative and significant effect on Iran's agricultural trade balance. Conclusion: It is suggested that due to the significance and positive impact of the common land border, the markets of neighboring countries, which are more similar and closer, should be given more attention in strengthening contracts and implementing market stabilization and development strategies to reduce tariff and transactional cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
46. DETERMINANTS OF INDONESIA’S TRADE BALANCE : A VECM MODEL APPROACH
- Author
-
Dhea Rahmanda Indrasari, Aries Soelistyo, and Widiya Dewi Anjaningrum
- Subjects
Trade balance ,Exhanger rate ,FDI ,GDP ,Business ,HF5001-6182 - Abstract
Trade Balance is the main indicator in external competitiveness. The condition of the trade balance in Indonesia tends to experience unbalanced conditions every year, so this study aims to see the relationship between the variables of Exchange Rate, FDI and GDP to the Trade Balance in Indonesia. The data used is a time series for 43 years (1980-2022) using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method to analyze the relationship and response between variables in the term short and long term. Short-term results show that the Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) do not affect the surplus or deficit of Indonesia's Trade Balance. While in the long run, Exchange Rate appreciation has a negative effect on the Trade Balance, the amount of FDI has a positive impact on the Trade Balance, and the amount of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) affects the deficit in the Trade Balance. The use of monetary policy can help stab ilize exchange rates, increase exports through increased foreign investment, maintain the value of exports, and reduce trade deficits. Rephrase
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
47. TRADE IN AGRI-FOOD PRODUCTS - PERSPECTIVES FROM BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS.
- Author
-
DANIELA, GIUCĂ ANDREEA
- Subjects
AGRICULTURAL research ,FOOD supply ,RESEARCH methodology ,BALANCE of trade ,BIBLIOMETRICS - Abstract
Growing global population and growing demand for food have put a lot of pressure on the global food supply chain. The global population is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050. In this context, providing agri-food products in the quantity needed by an ever-growing population puts even greater pressure on the supply chain with agro-food products globally. The present study aims to identify research trends in the field, so that it can identify the characteristics of trade in agri-food products. These are illustrated through a bibliometric study where the research contributions of authors, countries and scientific journals are presented. By using this research method, we want to identify the links between the number of documents published in the field, the research topic, the frequency of citation of the articles and the interest given to the research subject depending on the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
48. Foreign Exchange Market Pressure, Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Nigeria: Is There Evidence of the J-Curve Effect?
- Author
-
David Terfa Akighir
- Subjects
exchange rate ,foreign exchange market pressure ,j-curve ,trade balance ,structural vector autoregressive ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 ,Economic growth, development, planning ,HD72-88 - Abstract
The paper examined the relationship between the pressure in the exchange market, exchange rate, and trade balance in Nigeria to ascertain whether or not the J-Curve effects exist. The investigation was anchored on the Marshal-Lerner and the J-Curve theories using annual time series data from 1986 to 2021. The Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) technique was employed, and the findings revealed that the pressure in the exchange market exerts a strong contemporaneous positive effect on the exchange rate in the country. Also, the findings showed that the exchange rate has a strong contemporaneous negative effect on the trade balance. Furthermore, the long-run results indicated that the exchange rate has a positive but weak effect on the country's trade balance. Based on these findings, it was concluded that the relationship that exists among foreign exchange market pressure, exchange rate, and balance of trade suggests the potentiality of the J-Curve effects in the economy. The study recommended that local production of goods and services in Nigeria should be strengthened so that the depreciation of the naira would improve the trade balance. In the event of naira depreciation, domestic consumers could redirect their demand to the consumption of locally produced goods and services. Also, local production, especially in manufacturing and agricultural processing, should be encouraged, and the quality of the products be enhanced for competitive exportation to improve the trade balance in the country. The policy implication is that policymakers can leverage naira depreciation as a policy tool to enhance Nigeria's balance of trade.
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. Trends, Problems and Prospects for the Development of World Trade in Conditions of Modern Challenges
- Author
-
Atamanchuk Zоryna A., Mykhaylenko Anastasia М., and Bobkova Alina P.
- Subjects
world trade ,world market for goods and services ,trade balance ,trade policy ,world trade organization ,Business ,HF5001-6182 - Abstract
The proposed article aims to present a comprehensive overview of the problems and prospects of world trade, aimed at understanding the challenges it faces and substantiating the possibilities for its further development in the modern world. It is determined that the EU, China and the USA are the world’s largest exporters of goods. The dynamics of exports and imports of goods and services, the trade balance between the United States and the European Union, foreign trade by sectors of the economy are studied. The milestones of trade policy between the USA and the EU are outlined. The factors of recovery of the world economy after the COVID-19 pandemic are considered. It is substantiated that the full-scale war in Ukraine, the rupture of trade relations between the United States and China and the consequences of Brexit played a significant role in the formation of the main trends in bilateral trade on a global scale. A forecast of the development of world trade is carried out, emphasis is placed on the factors that will have both a positive and a negative impact on its dynamics. In particular, among the factors that will have a positive impact on the development of world trade, the following are allocated: growth in demand for certain types of services; trade and industrial policy reflecting the so-called «green transition» to an environmentally sustainable global economy. This will help increase trade flows of goods and services related to the production of energy-efficient goods and renewable energy sources. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the negative impact of geopolitical factors, including geopolitical tensions in the world and the war in Ukraine, industrial production is expected to slow down, with many economies maintaining relatively high interest rates as a result of ongoing inflationary pressures. The growing level of debt burden of the world’s economies, combined with high interest rates, will continue to have a negative impact on the macroeconomic conditions of many countries, which will lead to an increase in the cost of borrowing, and the policy of internal orientation in large economies may lead to increased restrictive measures in international trade, which will restrain the growth of its volumes.
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. Development of Trade and Economic Relations of African Countries
- Author
-
Varlamova Mariia L. and Romanets Tetiana P.
- Subjects
foreign trade ,trade and economic relations ,africa ,export ,import ,trade balance ,Business ,HF5001-6182 - Abstract
Africa is an important trading partner for many countries worldwide, despite the fact that most of its countries are characterized by a relatively low level of competitiveness on the international stage. The development of trade and economic relations among African countries can contribute to economic prosperity, strengthen regional security, and promote peace. However, integration processes are complicated by political instability, internal conflicts, and significant differences between countries in terms of economic development. On the one hand, the prospects for the development of trade and economic relations, and on the other hand, the complexity of implementation emphasize the relevance of the research topic. The article analyzes indicators such as export, import, trade balance, geographical structure of trade, and the export-import relationship between African countries and Ukraine. The analysis of trade and economic relations of African countries reveals that the share of Africa’s export and import is currently less than 3%. Since 2013, there has been a significant excess of imports over exports, negatively impacting the region’s economy. As a result of the analysis of intra-regional and inter-regional trade, it was found that the volumes of intra-regional trade account for 13.7%, indicating a higher level of trade and economic interaction between African countries and other regions of the world. The creation of a continental free trade area in the future may increase the volumes of mutual trade between countries, but significant changes have not occurred yet. African countries are also important trading partners for Ukraine, with a positive trade balance in their favor.
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
Catalog
Discovery Service for Jio Institute Digital Library
For full access to our library's resources, please sign in.