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La comunicazione del rischio ha un ruolo cruciale nella fase di preparazione e gestione degli eventi calamitosi come anche nella costruzione della fiducia tra cittadini e istituzioni. Le calamità naturali possono innescare processi di abbandono dei territori o indebolire ulteriormente comunità già fragili. La preparazione e la capacità di ripresa e adattamento delle comunità di fronte ad eventi come frane, alluvioni, o terremoti dipendono da una serie variabili, quali: percezione diffusa dei rischi, reciprocità e fiducia tra cittadini e tra cittadini e istituzioni, risorse disponibili (umane e materiali), preparazione e applicazione collettiva di comportamenti funzionali. L’obiettivo della ricerca qui presentata, parte del progetto MITIGO, è stato di raccogliere elementi utili a definire modelli di comunicazione e di auto-protezione in grado di aumentare la resilienza di comunità. Per raccogliere elementi riguardo questi processi è stato definito un questionario, somministrato in quattro piccoli comuni della Basilicata. Il questionario ha permesso non solo di trovare alcune risposte alle domande di ricerca ma anche di porne di nuove; ad esempio, ha permesso di identificare alcuni aspetti cruciali, quali: la variabilità del numero di abitanti effettivamente nel proprio comune tra giorni festivi e giorni lavorativi e tra diverse fasce orarie, il diverso livello di fiducia nella amministrazione comunale e nelle istituzioni in generale, il diverso grado di conoscenza dei rischi e dei comportamenti da attuare in caso di emergenza. Anche la reciprocità tra abitanti si è rivelata diversa. Le comunità di territori fragili hanno differenze ricorrenti; queste differenze se riconosciute possono guidare più efficaci programmi di comunicazione del rischio e di supporto alla resilienza di comunità. Dopo una panoramica sulle teorie e sui modelli di comunicazione del rischio si presentano alcuni suggerimenti utili a impostare progetti di comunicazione del rischio specifici per le comunità esplorate e per analoghe aree interne della Basilicata e per le aree montane in generale.

Avian scavengers are declining throughout the world, and are affected by a large number of threats such as poisoning, electrocution, collision with man-made structures, direct persecution, changes in agricultural practices, landscape composition, and sanitary regulations that can reduce food availability. To formulate effective conservation strategies, it is important to quantify which of these factors has the greatest influence on demographic parameters such as territory occupancy and breeding success, and whether quantitative models can be transferred across geographic regions and political boundaries. We collated territory and nest monitoring data of the endangered Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus in the Balkans to understand the relative influence of various factors on population declines. We monitored occupancy in 87 different territories and breeding performance of 405 territory-monitoring years between 2003 and 2015, with an overall territory occupancy rate of 69% and a mean productivity of 0.80 fledglings per occupied territory. We examined which of 48 different environmental variables were most influential in explaining variation in territory occupancy and breeding success in Bulgaria and Greece, and tested whether these models were transferrable to the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Territory occupancy and breeding success were affected by a wide range of environmental variables, each of which had a small effect that may not be the same across political boundaries. Both models had reasonably good discriminative ability [area under the receiver-operated characteristic curve (AUC) for territory occupancy = 0.871, AUC for breeding success = 0.744], but were unsuccessful in predicting occupancy or breeding success in the external validation data set from a different country, possibly because the most influential factors vary geographically. Management focussing on a small number of environmental variables is unlikely to be effective in slowing the decline of Egyptian Vultures on the Balkan Peninsula. We recommend that in the short term the reduction of adult mortality through the enforcement of anti-poison laws, and in the long term the adoption of large-scale landscape conservation programs that retain or restore historical small-scale farming practices may benefit vultures and other biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale disturbances, by affecting habitat suitability, can influence bird populations and communities. Although we know that disturbances can lead to population decreases and shifts in community structure, our understanding of finer-scaled mechanisms leading to these patterns is limited. We focused on why some territories remain occupied by a species following a large-scale disturbance, while others are abandoned. The Swainson's Warbler (Limnothlypis swainsonii) is especially susceptible to flooding because of its preference for nesting in thick understory vegetation and foraging in leaf litter. In 2008, a major flood inundated a study site where we have studied Swainson's Warblers since 2004. In 2008 and 2009, we resurveyed 42 Swainson's Warbler territories that were occupied between 2005 and 2007 and examined changes in habitat structure and composition and prey abundance influencing territory abandonment. Occupancy declined between the preflood and postflood surveys. Territory abandonment was associated with decreases in leaf litter cover, increases in cover of green vegetation, and decreases in density of total understory stems and giant cane (Arundinaria gigan tea) between the preflood and flood periods. Despite the partial recovery of habitat structure and prey abundance after the flood, Swainson's Warbler occupancy did not recover in subsequent years. Multiple habitat variables, including leaflitter cover, density of woody stems, understory density, and prey abundance have been identified as important for Swainson's Warblers, and these results suggest that leaf litter may be especially important in influencing habitatselection decisions following flood disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying threats to declining species and prescribing ways of preventing their extinction are basic challenges for biodiversity conservation. We analysed the causes underlying the loss of territories of the Endangered Egyptian vulture Neophron percnopterus in a key population at the north-western edge of its distribution in Europe by developing multi-scale models that combined factors from nest site to landscape. We used generalized linear models and an information-theoretic approach to identify the optimal combination of scales and resolutions that could explain territorial abandonment. Those models combining nest-site and landscape scales considerably improved prediction ability compared to those considering only one scale. The best combined model had a high predictive ability (96.9% of correctly classified cases). Small cliffs at high altitudes in rugged areas with declining livestock (especially of sheep and goats) increased the likelihood of territory abandonment. Our findings highlight the importance of developing region-specific multi-scale models to determine reliably the factors driving territory loss and of designing effective conservation strategies accordingly. Conservation measures for the studied population should be developed at two spatial scales. At the smaller scale it is necessary to closely control nest sites to avoid direct disturbances. At a larger scale it is essential to implement policies that can support traditional pastoralism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Declines in habitat quality through the breeding season within a bird’s home-range can limit overall productivity. In environments where multiple breeding opportunities arise during the course of a season, these effects can be buffered by a shift to different breeding sites or habitats. We studied the distribution and habitat associations of a crop-nesting farmland bird, the Yellow Wagtail Motacilla flava, across an arable-dominated farming region in eastern England using both field-scale territory mapping and large-scale transect surveys. Surveys were repeated at monthly intervals to measure changes in both distribution and habitat use during the course of the season. The distribution of breeding birds changed markedly at both regional and field-scales, coinciding with a shift in crop preference. Initially, most territorial birds were recorded in autumn-sown cereal fields, but this crop was subsequently abandoned in favour of potato crops, which were more patchily distributed. Other habitat features influencing Yellow Wagtail distribution included local crop diversity, hedgerow presence and soil type, with organic soils supporting higher abundance than alluvial clays or silts. The mid-season switch in habitat associations might allow individuals to maximize the number of breeding attempts made in a single year by using multiple habitats sequentially. The use of multiple habitats could influence population regulation by buffering the effects of local within-season declines in habitat suitability. Seasonal habitat switching may be more prevalent than is currently recognized in seasonal environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]