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Early evidence demonstrates that the fertility response to the COVID-19 pandemic has varied across European countries. Yet, prior research indicates that fertility responses to disasters are often localized sub-nationally. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 incidence, economic pandemic impacts, and the affectedness by virus containment measures varied subnationally across Europe during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sub-national variation in the fertility response seems therefore possible. We conducted a rigorous data collection effort in 28 European countries (equaling 241 European sub-national regions) and used cutting-edge forecasting methods to assess sub-national variation in the fertility response to the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic. While we find sub-national variation, our results reveal that the fertility response to the pandemic was dominated by the country level, with Southern European countries witnessing more negative fertility response to the early pandemic than Northern Europe. Variance decomposition even indicates a ‘nationalization’ of birth rates during the winter months of 2020, as the within- country variance in fertility declined and between-country variance increased. Nonetheless, highly urbanized areas in Europe experienced significantly steeper fertility declines as a response to the beginning of the pandemic, which is partly explained by their higher SARSCoV-2 incidence rates. SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates emerged as another important predictor of the fertility response more broadly. Higher incidences were associated with steeper fertility declines across the regions. Overall, country-level estimates represent fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic generally well, but the regional dimension provides additional important insight into how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted fertility.

As expected, birth rates have been affected across high-income countries in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. Initial studies reported heterogeneous fertility responses across countries. Yet, country level assessments may mask important regional variation and paint an imprecise average picture. Regional level analyses are thus needed to deepen our understanding of the fertility response to Covid-19. Our study fills this gap. We conducted a rigorous data collection effort in 24 European countries, and report how the first pandemic wave affected birth rates across European sub-national regions. We find large sub-national regional variation in the birth rate response between December 2020 and May 2021, with more pronounced variation in countries with lower Covid-19- mortality rates during the first wave. Future analyses will formally assess regional heterogeneity in the fertility response within countries, and examine whether regional fertility response variation is predicted by regional Covid-19 infection-rates or economic indicators.

Investigating fertility response to pandemic so far was focused on the country level. However, large sub-national variation in fertility is well- documented. A regional and monthly perspective is important to fully assess fertility response to the pandemic. The study aims to: a) document sub- national monthly birth rate changes in November 2020- April 2021 (first Covid-19 wave conceptions in February 2020-July 2020), by comparing observed to expected monthly birth rates (“excess births”), b) Assess the ‘significance’ of observed changes light of expected monthly birth rates (forecasts) based on modelling prior trends, and c) explore the association between NUTS2-level regions’ “excess births” and their first wave Covid-19 affectedness.

Niet iedereen die een partner heeft, woont daar ook mee samen. Van de volwassen Nederlanders heeft ongeveer 7 procent een dergelijke latrelatie. Dit aandeel is in de afgelopen tien jaar vrijwel gelijk gebleven. Ongeveer driekwart van de latters wil in de toekomst met de huidige partner samenwonen of trouwen, een kwart wil dat niet. Voor de meesten die niet willen samenwonen, 60 procent, is dat omdat zij hun vrijheid willen behouden. Voor een op vijf speelt dat zij slechte ervaringen hebben in eerdere relaties en eenzelfde aandeel wil niet samenwonen vanwege de eigen kinderen of die van de partner. Belemmeringen zoals het vinden van een geschikte woning of gezondheidsproblemen spelen meestal geen rol. Onder degenen die willen blijven latten zijn oudere vrouwen oververtegenwoordigd, degenen die in de toekomst willen trouwen zijn juist vaak nog jong. Voor hen is latten waarschijnlijk een tussenstap naar een samenwoonrelatie.