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We conducted a large-scale household survey in November 2020 to study how altering the time frame of a message (temporal framing) regarding an imminent positive income shock affects consumption plans. The income shock derives from the abolishment of the German solidarity surcharge on personal income taxes, effective in January 2021. We randomize across survey participants whether their extra disposable income is presented in Euros per month, Euros per year, or Euros per ten year-period. Our main findings are as follows: In General, we find our respondents' intended Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) is 28.2%. Across all three treatments, the MPC is a positive function of age and being female while it is a negative function of the income increase's size, self- control, and being unemployed. Temporal framing effects are statistically and economically highly significant as we find the monthly treatment groups' average MPC 5.6 and 8.7 percentage points higher compared to the yearly and 10-yearly treatment groups. We will be able to analyze the real consumption behavior of households throughout 2021 based on re-surveying the participants as well as by using transaction-based bank data.

We use data from the period 2009-15 to estimate the impact of the public policy aiming to decrease the taxes paid by companies over their payroll. The objective of this program, so called Less Taxes on the Payroll ("Desoneração da Folha de Pagamento"), was to burst the employment in the firms benefited by the tax cut. Overall our econometric results show no employment effect of this program.

2nd International Conference on Strategic Innovative Marketing (IC-SIM) -- SEP 13-17, 2013 -- Prague, CZECH REPUBLIC, WOS: 000346116000080, The main purpose of the present study is to reveal the effects of economic policies, as one of the macro environmental factors that affect the marketing, on the sale of automobiles. Eight different data sets, which include totally 72 months belonged to 2005-2010 years has been used. These data have analyzed by multiple regression and neural network method. The variables like as euro exchange, the vehicle loans rate presented by the banks and tax deduction made by the government for the automobile sector has affected the sale of automobiles; besides, the inflation rate, automobile and oil prices, income of the consumers and advertising expenditures of the businesses have no effects on the sales. In addition that multiple regression and nueral network analysis was compared with each other. Finally, neural network has better performance in the selling prediction than regression model. It is an original study that measures the effects of the macro environmental factors on the sales of automobile enterprises in Turkey. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

No abstract available. Article truncated at 150 words. Today (December 13) members of the House and Senate will meet to reconcile differences between their two tax reform proposals. Congress is expected to complete work on the bill before the Christmas recess. Although many are overjoyed by a tax cut, there are potential pitfalls to the tax cut that might adversely affect physicians. Under a rule in the Senate known as Pay as You Go (PAYGO), legislation that increases the deficit results in automatic spending cuts. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that tax cuts could lead to automatic cuts of $136 billion in fiscal 2018, $25 billion of which would come from Medicare. PAYGO cuts would reduce Medicare payments to physicians by 4% in 2018 according to the American College of Physicians (ACP) (1). PAYGO would also lead to cuts to graduate medical education, lab fees, and hospital payments and would cut or entirely eliminate hundreds of other …

No abstract available. Article truncated after 150 words. Today (6/27/17) an article was published in the Annals of Internal Medicine by Steffie Woolhandler and David Himmelstein from New York University on the effects of health insurance on mortality (1). The article has special significance because of pending healthcare legislation in the Senate. The Annals article concludes that the odds of dying among the insured relative to the uninsured is 0.71 to 0.97. However, the authors acknowledge that this is a very difficult study to conduct because of the nonrandomized, observational nature of the studies and lack of a strict separation between covered and uncovered Americans. For example, many people cycle in and out of insurance diluting differences between groups. Of course, what is needed is a randomized trial, and surprisingly, one does exist which is discussed in the Annals article (1,2). In 2008, Oregon initiated a limited expansion of its Medicaid program for about 6,000 poor, able-bodied, uninsured …

経済的弱者が保守政党に投票する傾向が「失われた20年」に見られた。これは、再配分による格差の補填を求め、低所得者が革新政党に投票するとされる一般的理解とは逆である。ところが、JES世論調査の分析から、パズルは「見せかけ」に過ぎなかったことが判明した。具体的には、1)「福祉か減税か」の選択は、投票の際の判断材料とはならず、一方、2)低所得者はやはり革新政党に投票する。そして、3)「福祉か減税か」の選択と所得には一貫した傾向性がないことなどが示された。, During the "Lost Two-Decades," the low income voters appeared to vote for the conservative party. This is a puzzle because a rational model predicts that the low income voters would vote for parties that support income redistribution. A multi-variate analysis of the pooled JES survey data sets revealed that the puzzle was superficial: The "welfare vs. tax cut" question has not been a issue at the elections, while the low income voters tend to vote for the liberal parties, and there has been no systematic relationship between voter income and the "welfare vs. tax cut" question., 瀬川晃教授古稀記念論集, Dedicated to Professor Akira Segawa on his 70th birthday, 第一部(I), Article

This paper uses a simple new-Keynesian model (with and without capital) and calculates multipliers of four types. That is, we assume either an increase in government spending or a cut in sales/labor/capital tax that is financed by lump-sum taxes (Ricardian evidence holds). We argue that multipliers of a temporary fiscal stimulus for separable preferences and zero nominal interest rate results in lower values than what is obtained by Eggertsson (2010). Using Christiano et al. (2009) non-separable utility framework which they used to calculate spending multipliers we study tax cuts as well and find that sales tax cut multiplier can be well above one (joint with government spending) when zero lower bound on nominal interest binds. In case of a permanent stimulus we show in the model without capital and assuming non-separable preferences that it is the spending and wage tax cut which produce the highest multipliers with values lower than one. In the model with capital and assuming that the nominal rate is fixed for a one-year (or two-year) duration we present an impact multiplier of government spending that is very close to the one in Bernstein and Romer (2009) but later declines with horizon in contrast to their finding and in line with the one of Cogan et al. (2010). We also demonstrate that the long-run spending multiplier calculated similarly to Campolmi et al. (2010) implies roughly the same value for both types of preferences for particular calibrations. For comparison, we also provide long-run multipliers using the method proposed by Uhlig (2010).

On the basis of a substantial reduction of the corporate tax rate and the introduction of a preferential tax rate for retained profits for partnerships German tax reform act 2008 aims to improve the attractiveness of Germany for investment purposes. Furthermore a final withholding tax at a rate of 25 % for capital income shall be introduced. In order to limit revenue losses the reform involves a broader tax base. Unfortunately, tax base broadening ignores fundamental principles of income taxation and will therefore cause tax induced distortions, a considerably complication of German tax law and a substantial increase of tax planning activities. As a result of the final withholding tax, that creates considerable tax rate differences in favour of interest income, firms will substitute debt for equity. Therefore German tax reform act 2008 fails to support entrepreneurial equity despite the preferential taxation of retained profits as well as the introduction of an interest stripping rule. Die Unternehmensteuerreform 2008 zielt darauf ab, die Attraktivität des Standortes Deutschland und die unternehmerische Eigenkapitalausstattung zu verbessern. Dies soll durch Steuersatzsenkungen für Kapitalgesellschaften und die Einführung einer Thesaurierungsbegünstigung für Personenunternehmen erreicht werden. Zudem ist eine 25%ige Abgeltungsteuer für Kapitaleinkommen geplant. Diese tariflichen Steuerentlastungen sollen größtenteils durch eine Verbreiterung der Bemessungsgrundlage gegenfinanziert werden. Mit der Unternehmensteuerreform 2008 verabschiedet sich die Einkommensbesteuerung in Deutschland von dem Leitbild der synthetischen Einkommensbesteuerung und dem Nettoprinzip der Besteuerung. Verstöße gegen die steuerliche Gleichmäßigkeit und mangelnde Effizienz der Besteuerung sind die Folge. Darüber hinaus ist eine erhebliche Komplizierung des Steuerrechts zu beklagen. Beträchtliche Verzerrungen wird die geplante Abgeltungsteuer bewirken. Sie diskriminiert aufgrund des erheblichen Steuersatzgefälles zugunsten von Zinseinkommen massiv die unternehmerische Eigenkapitalbildung und wird Steuergestaltungen in erheblichem Ausmaß nach sich ziehen. Aufgrund der Abgeltungsteuer in der vorliegenden Form wird der Gesetzgeber das von ihm verfolgte Ziel einer Stärkung der unternehmerischen Eigenkapitalbasis - trotz der Thesaurierungsbegünstigung für Kapitalgesellschaften und Personenunternehmen sowie der Einführung einer Zinsschranke - nicht erreichen.

In a recent edition of Perspectives on Politics, Larry Bartels examines the high levels of support for tax cuts signed into law by President Bush in 2001. In so doing, he characterizes the opinions of “ordinary people” as being based on “simple-minded and sometimes misguided considerations of self interest” and concludes that “the strong plurality support for Bush’s tax cut...is entirely attributable to simple ignorance.” Our analysis of the same data reveals different results. We show that for a large and politically relevant class of respondents – people who describe themselves as “conservative” or “Republican” – increasing information levels increase support for the tax cuts to the extent that they have any affect at all. Indeed, using Bartels’ measure of political information, we show that the Republican respondents rated most informed supported the tax cuts at extraordinarily high levels (over 96%). For these citizens, Bartels’ claim that “better-informed respondents were much more likely to express negative views about the 2001 tax cut” is simply untrue. We then show that Bartels’ results depend on a very strong assumption about how information affects public opinion. He restricts all respondents -- whether liberal or conservative, Republican or Democrat – to respond to increasing information levels in identical ways. In other words, he assumes that if more information about the tax cut makes liberals less likely to support it, then conservatives must follow suit. This assumption is very presumptive about the policy and value trade- offs that different people should make. Our analysis, by contrast, allows people of different partisan or ideological identities to react to higher information levels in varying ways. This flexibility has many benefits, one of which is a direct test of Bartels’ restrictive assumption. We demonstrate that the assumption is untrue. Examined several ways, our findings suggest that much of the support for the tax cut was attributable to something other than “simple ignorance.” Bartels’ approach is based on a very strong presumption about how citizens should think and what they should think about. We advocate a different approach, one that takes questions of public policy seriously while respecting ideological and partisan differences in opinion and interest. Indeed, citizens have reasons for the opinions and interests they have. We may or may not agree with them. However, we, as social scientists, can contribute more by offering reliable explanations of these reasons than we can by judging them prematurely. By turning our attention to explaining differences of opinion, we can help to forge a stronger and more credible foundation for progress in meeting critical social needs.

One decision worth reconsidering is the form in which equity investments are held. Taxpayers could acquire equity investments in a tax-sheltered form by holding them in their individual retirement accounts (IRAs), or these investments could be acquired in a non-tax-sheltered form by purchasing them outside of an IRA (i.e., taxable account). This article considers mathematical models to evaluate this choice, taking into account the three types of IRAs that exist: Roth IRAs, deductible traditional IRAs, and nondeductible traditional IRAs. Break-even graphs are also presented to illustrate the mathematical models’ implications more explicitly. The results show that, even with a lower tax rate on dividends and capital gains, ownership of equities through a Roth IRA is still more advantageous than through a taxable account, and the same is often true for deductible traditional IRAs. However, the choice between a Roth IRA and deductible traditional IRA is less obvious. While qualified Roth IRA distributions are tax-free, they do not provide the initial tax savings that traditional IRA provides when deducting a contribution to it.

I model and simulate the effects of employment tax cuts on unemployment and wages in four equilibrium models: competitive, union bargaining, search and efficiency wages. I find that if the ratio of unemployment compensation to wages is fixed, the effect of the tax cut is mainly on wages. But if income out of work is fixed in real terms, there are substantial employment effects. When wages are determined by bargaining, revenue-neutral reforms that make the tax more progressive also reduce unemployment. Thus, policy towards unemployment compensation and tax structure are key influences on the effect of taxes on unemployment. 42 155 183 155-183