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[ES] El sector agroalimentario se caracteriza por el alto grado de deterioro en los productos alimenticios, éstos tienden a perder su valor conforme transcurre el tiempo generando desperdicios y demanda insatisfecha. Los procesos que se llevan a cabo en las cadenas de suministro agroalimentarias para la obtención de este tipo de productos perecederos requieren de una mayor flexibilidad, eficiencia y coordinación de los diversos actores interactuantes a lo largo de la cadena (proveedores, agricultores, productores, centros de distribución, almacenes mayoristas, minoristas y mercado). Además, una cadena de suministro agroalimentaria (CdSA) se diferencia de otras debido a que los productos alimenticios experimentan un cambio continuo y significativo a medida que son manipulados, almacenados y transportados por cada uno de los eslabones que conforma la cadena hasta llegar a los eslabones de demanda y consumo con la calidad y frescura esperada para satisfacer las necesidades de los clientes. Por otro lado, existe una alta incertidumbre en el producto, proceso, mercado y entorno para este tipo de cadenas de suministro por lo que deben ser más robustas y resilientes ante la presencia de disrupciones que puedan afectar su rendimiento. En el presente TFM se propone un marco conceptual en base al cual se lleva a cabo un análisis de la literatura con objeto de detectar qué herramientas existen y sus carencias. En base al anterior análisis se desarrolla una herramienta de ayuda a la toma de decisiones para la gestión de cadenas de suministro agroalimentarias de productos perecederos en un entorno de incertidumbre y alto riesgo, basada en simulación de dinámica de sistemas mediante el software de simulación Vensim®. La incertidumbre se abordará a través de la experimentación y simulación de diversos escenarios con la finalidad de proponer planes de contingencia para hacer frente a la ocurrencia de eventos disruptivos que afecten el correcto funcionamiento de la cadena. El modelo planteado tiene como objetivo la maximización de los beneficios y la demanda satisfecha en los mercados, minimizando a su vez la cantidad de producto desperdiciado a lo largo de la cadena de suministro. La validación del modelo de dinámica de sistemas se lleva a cabo a través de la aplicación de los test de Sterman (2000) para validar modelos dinámicos de simulación., [EN] The agri-food sector is characterized for the high deterioration degree in the food products, they tend to lose their value over time causing waste and unsatisfied demand. The process carries out in the agri-food supply chains for obtaining this type of perishable products require more flexibility, efficiency and coordination of the diverse interacting actors throughout the chain (suppliers, agricultures, producers, distribution centers, wholesalers and retailers¿ stores and the market). Additionally, an agri-food supply chain (CdSA) differs from others due the food products undergo a substantial and continuous change as they are manipulated, stored, and transported for each of the chains comprised by the chain until reach to the demand and consumption chains with the quality and freshness expected to satisfy the customer¿s needs. On the other hand, there is a high uncertainty in the product, in the process, in the market and environment for this type of supply chains, so they must be more solid and resilient in the presence of disruptions that may affect their performance. In the current TFM, it is proposed a conceptual framework based on the literature analysis in order to detect what tools exist and their deficiencies. Based on the previous analysis is developed a decision support tool for the management of the agri-food supply chains of perishable products in an environment of uncertainty and high risk, focused on the simulation tool Vensim ®. The uncertainty will address through the experimentation and simulation of diverse scenes in order to proposed contingency plans to deal with the occurrence of disruptive events that affect the smooth operation of the chain. The aim of the model approached is to maximize the benefits and the satisfied demand in the markets, as the same time to minimalize the amount of product wasted throughout the supply chain. The validation of the system dynamics model is carried out through the application of the Sterman test (2000) to validate dynamic simulation models.

En este artículo se estima la demanda futura de materiales de construcción en Colombia y de los minerales necesarios para producirlos usando dinámica de sistemas y análisis de flujos de materiales. Por medio del análisis de flujos de materiales se determinan las cantidades de minerales requeridos para la producción de cemento y concreto. La producción requerida de cemento y concreto se estima por medio de un modelo de dinámica de sistemas el cual se ajusta con datos del censo de construcción del DANE. Los resultados indican que, sin tener en cuenta la oferta secundaria de materiales, entre 2014 y 2017 se requerirían 176.9 millones de toneladas de agregados triturados, arena de río, cemento gris, roca muerta y cerámica cocida. Para la fabricación del cemento y concreto, se necesitarían 15.4 millones de toneladas de caliza, 14,9 de grava, 14,1 de yeso, 13,3, 9,7 y 9,3 de arcilla, minerales de hierro y arena, respectivamente. This article provides an estimation of the future demand of construction materials in Colombia and necessary minerals to produce them by using systems dynamic and analysis of materials flows. Through the analysis of materials flows the amount of minerals required for the production of cement and concrete are determined. Required production of cement and concrete is estimated through a model of systems dynamic, which is adjusted with data from DANE construction census. Results indicate that, disregarding the secondary offer of materials, 176.9 million tons of ground aggregates, river sand, gray cement, dead rock, and cooked ceramic would be required. Manufacture of cement and concrete would require 15.4 million tons of lime, 14.9 million tons of gravel, 14.1 million tons of gypsum, and 13.3, 9.7, and 9.3 million tons of clay, iron minerals, and sand, respectively. Neste artigo, estima-se a demanda futura de materiais de construção na Colômbia e dos minerais necessários para produzi-los usando dinâmica de sistemas e análise de fluxos de materiais. Por meio da análise de fluxos de materiais, determinam-se as quantidades de minerais requeridos para a produção de cimento e concreto. A produção exigida de cimento e concreto estima-se por meio de um modelo de dinâmica de sistemas que se ajusta aos dados do censo de construção do Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estatística (Dane). Os resultados indicam que, sem considerar a oferta secundária de materiais, entre 2014 e 2017, foram requeridos 176,9 milhões de toneladas de agregados triturados, areia de rio, cimento cinzento, rocha morta e cerâmica cozida. Para a fabricação do cimento e do concreto, seriam necessários 15,4 milhões de toneladas de calcário, 14,9 de cascalho, 14,1 de gesso, 13,3, 9,7 e 9,3 de argila, minerais de ferro e areia.

This review summarises recent progress in understanding crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) systems and the integration of internal and external stimuli to maximise water-use efficiency. Complex CAM traits have been reduced to their minimum and captured as computational models, which can now be refined using recently available data from transgenic manipulations and large-scale omics studies. We identify three key areas in which an appropriate choice of modelling tool could help capture relevant comparative molecular data to address the evolutionary drivers and plasticity of CAM. One focus is to identify the environmental and internal signals that drive inverse stomatal opening at night. Secondly, it is important to identify the regulatory processes required to orchestrate the diel pattern of carbon fluxes within mesophyll layers. Finally, the limitations imposed by contrasting succulent systems and associated hydraulic conductance components should be compared in the context of water-use and evolutionary strategies. While network analysis of transcriptomic data can provide insights via co-expression modules and hubs, alternative forms of computational modelling should be used iteratively to define the physiological significance of key components and informing targeted functional gene manipulation studies. We conclude that the resultant improvements of bottom-up, mechanistic modelling systems can enhance progress towards capturing the physiological controls for phylogenetically diverse CAM systems in the face of the recent surge of information in this omics era.

In this paper, we present a hybrid method of game theory and dynamic systems to study the behavior of firms in an oligopoly market. The aim of this study is to build a model for an oligopoly game on the basis of feedback loops and system dynamics approach and to solve the resulted problems under some special conditions where traditional game theory methods are unable to handle. The method includes a combination of qualitative methods including interviews with industry experts to prepare the model and quantitative methods of system dynamics, simulation methodologies and game theory. The results indicate that competitive behavior and the important parameters such as volume of demand, interest rates and price fluctuation will be stabilized after a transition period.

Natural gas is considered the transitional fuel for excellence between fossil and renewable sources, considering its low cost, greater efficiency and lesser effects on the environment. This has led to increased demand levels worldwide, requiring the intervention of public and private actors to meet such demand. In this research, we study the natural gas supply chain in Colombia using system dynamics modelling. The results allow to contrast both the behaviour of the production and transport levels and the behaviour of the demand from the consumption sectors, allowing to identify capacity levels to be developed considering implementation times and percentages of coverage in the supply.

Resumen En este artículo se estima la demanda futura de materiales de construcción en Colombia y de los minerales necesarios para producirlos usando dinámica de sistemas y análisis de flujos de materiales. Por medio del análisis de flujos de materiales se determinan las cantidades de minerales requeridos para la producción de cemento y concreto. La producción requerida de cemento y concreto se estima por medio de un modelo de dinámica de sistemas el cual se ajusta con datos del censo de construcción del DANE. Los resultados indican que, sin tener en cuenta la oferta secundaria de materiales, entre 2014 y 2017 se requerirían 176.9 millones de toneladas de agregados triturados, arena de río, cemento gris, roca muerta y cerámica cocida. Para la fabricación del cemento y concreto, se necesitarían 15.4 millones de toneladas de caliza, 14,9 de grava, 14,1 de yeso, 13,3, 9,7 y 9,3 de arcilla, minerales de hierro y arena, respectivamente Abstract This article provides an estimation of the future demand of construction materials in Colombia and necessary minerals to produce them by using systems dynamic and analysis of materials flows. Through the analysis of materials flows the amount of minerals required for the production of cement and concrete are determined. Required production of cement and concrete is estimated through a model of systems dynamic, which is adjusted with data from DANE construction census. Results indicate that, disregarding the secondary offer of materials, 176.9 million tons of ground aggregates, river sand, gray cement, dead rock, and cooked ceramic would be required. Manufacture of cement and concrete would require 15.4 million tons of lime, 14.9 million tons of gravel, 14.1 million tons of gypsum, and 13.3, 9.7, and 9.3 million tons of clay, iron minerals, and sand, respectively. Resumo Neste artigo, estima-se a demanda futura de materiais de construção na Colômbia e dos minerais necessários para produzi-los usando dinâmica de sistemas e análise de fluxos de materiais. Por meio da análise de fluxos de materiais, determinam-se as quantidades de minerais requeridos para a produção de cimento e concreto. A produção exigida de cimento e concreto estima-se por meio de um modelo de dinâmica de sistemas que se ajusta aos dados do censo de construção do Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estatística (Dane). Os resultados indicam que, sem considerar a oferta secundária de materiais, entre 2014 e 2017, foram requeridos 176,9 milhões de toneladas de agregados triturados, areia de rio, cimento cinzento, rocha morta e cerâmica cozida. Para a fabricação do cimento e do concreto, seriam necessários 15,4 milhões de toneladas de calcário, 14,9 de cascalho, 14,1 de gesso, 13,3, 9,7 e 9,3 de argila, minerais de ferro e areia.

El presente estudio desarrolla un modelo de simulación en dinámica de sistemas como complemento a un modelo análisis de flujos de materiales desarrollado por Müller (2006), con el objetivo de proyectar demanda futura de materiales de construcción a partir del análisis de flujos pasados de materiales y de los stocks de materiales. La dinámica de los flujos de materiales de construcción de viviendas está dada por; licencias de construcción aprobadas, las técnicas de construcción usadas y la intensidad en el uso de los materiales en cada una de las técnicas. Las licencias de construcción aprobadas dependen del PIB per cápita, para el cual se toman las proyecciones del FMI para Colombia, en pesos constantes del año 2005. Las técnicas constructivas más usadas en Colombia son: Mampostería Confinada, con un consumo promedio de materiales de 2.407,3 Kg/m2, Mampostería Estructural y el Sistema Industrializado con un consumo 1.378,5 y de 1.269 Kg/m2, respectivamente. Los materiales más usados en los próximos años serán los agregados triturados, con un consumo de 503 millones de toneladas a 2062, seguido de la arena de río con 496 millones de toneladas. Abstract: this study, is a simulation model building in systems dynamic was developed to complement a model of material distribution with the objective being the projection of future construction material demand deduced from past material distribution pattem and material stock analysis. The dynamic of home construction material distribution is determined by: construction license approval, construction techniques used, and use of materials required by each technique. The construction license approval depends on GDP per capita which is determined by the IFM projections for Colombia in fixed pesos (not accounting for inflation). The construction techniques most commonly used in Colombia are: confined masonry with average material consumption rate of 2,407.3 kilograms per square meter structural masonry, and the industrialized system with a consumption rate of 1,378.5 and 1,269 kilograms per square meter respectively. The materials most frequently used in the coming years will be crushed aggregate with a consumption rate of 496 million tons Maestría

According to the recent Spanish legislation, the amount of non-hazardous construction and demolition waste (C&D waste) by weight must be reduced by at least 70% by 2020. However, the current behavior of the stakeholders involved in the waste management process make this goal difficult to achieve. In order to boost changes in their strategies, we firstly describe an Environmental Management System (EMS) based on regulation measures and economic incentives which incorporate universities as a key new actor in order to create a 3Rs model (Reduce, Reuse and Recycle) in the C&D waste management with costs savings. The target areas are focused mainly on producer responsibility, promotion of low-waste building technologies and creation of green jobs to fulfill three main objectives: valorization of inert wastes, elimination of illegal landfills and stimulation of demand for recycled C&D wastes. To achieve this latter goal, we have also designed a simulation model—using the Systems Dynamic methodology—to assess the potential impact of two policies (incentives and tax penalties) in order to evaluate how the government can influence the behavior of the firms in the recycling system of C&D waste aggregates. This paper finds a broader understanding of the socioeconomic implications of waste management over time and the positive effects of these policies in the recycled aggregates market in order to achieve the goal of 30% C&D waste aggregates in 12 years or less.

Submitted by Vitor Silverio Rodrigues (vitorsrodrigues@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2014-05-27T11:27:07Z No. of bitstreams: 0Bitstream added on 2014-05-27T14:31:51Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 2-s2.0-84867788952.pdf: 441878 bytes, checksum: fd671ff0e665bc75cd7d49b42b180da0 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-27T11:27:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2012-10-29 Utilizando um modelo de simulação em Dinâmica de Sistemas desenvolvido como ferramenta para auxiliar na análise das alternativas para a gestão dos recursos hídricos, simulou-se o efeito de diferentes políticas de gestão ao longo de 40 anos nas bacias hidrográficas dos rios Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí (BH-PCJ). Através deste modelo foram simulados a disponibilidade e demanda de água, bem como as cargas contaminantes provindas dos diferentes setores usuários. Seis cenários foram simulados utilizando-se o valor da precipitação média anual, mudanças na disponibilidade e demanda de água e a vazão revertidas das BH-PCJ para a Bacia Hidrográfica do Alto Tietê (BH-AT). Para o cenário Business as Usual, em 2010 o Índice de Sustentabilidade que era de 0,41 em 2010 diminuiu até 0,22 em 2050; o Índice de Falkenmark, que era de 1.302 m3 hab-1 ano-1 em 2010, passou a ser de 774 m3 hab-1 ano-1 em 2054; e o Índice de Uso da Água aumentou de 80,7% em 2010, para 125,5% em 2050. Observou-se que as questões relativas ao saneamento se afiguram como sendo as mais importantes para a gestão dos recursos hídricos nas BH-PCJ. A dynamic systems water resources simulation model was developed as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí River Water Basins (BH-PCJ). Different politics policy were simulated for 40-year. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as contamination load from several consumers. Six runs were performed using average precipitation value, changing water supply and demand, and different volumes diverted from BH-PCJ to BH-Alto Tietê For the Business as Usual, the Sustainability Index went from 0.41 in 2010 to 0.22 by 2050; the Water Use Index changed from 80.7% in 2010, to 125.5% by 2050; and the Falkenmark Index changed from 1,302 m 3 person -1 year -1 in 2010 to 774 m 3 P -1 year -1 by 2050. It was noticed that sanitation is one of the biggest concerns in the near future at PCJ River Basin. FCA/UNESP, Rua José Barbosa de Barros, 1780, CEP 18610-307, Botucatu, SP EMBRAPA/AGROSSILVIPASTORIL, Av. Dos Jacarandás, 2639, CEP 78550-003, Sinop, MT Ecologia Aplicada LEB/ESALQ/USP, Av. Pádua Dias, 11, CEP 13418-900, Piracicaba, SP FCA/UNESP, Rua José Barbosa de Barros, 1780, CEP 18610-307, Botucatu, SP

Healthcare is growing sectors for optimization techniques since most of the Europeans National Health Systems are facing the goal of reduce their financial efforts. This paper presents an innovative approach where Systems Dynamics and State Transition Diagrams are integrated building a flexible and general model able to reproduce complex healthcare operations in a tradeoff between complexity and flexibility. The papers shows a case study applied to real life hospital.

The theory of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) is a powerful approach to modeling human knowledge that is based on causal reasoning. Taking advantage of fuzzy logic and cognitive map theories, FCMs enable system designers to model complex frameworks by defining degrees of causality between causal objects. They can be used to model and represent the behavior of simple and complex systems by capturing and emulating the human being to describe and present systems in terms of tolerance, imprecision, and granulation of information. However, FCMs lack the temporal concept that is crucial in many real-world applications, and they do not offer formal mechanisms to verify the behavior of systems being represented, which limit conventional FCMs in knowledge representation. In this paper, we present an extension to FCMs by exploiting a theory from formal languages, namely, the timed automata, which bridges the aforementioned inadequacies. Indeed, the theory of timed automata enables FCMs to effectively deal with a double-layered temporal granularity, extending the standard idea of B-time that characterizes the iterative nature of a cognitive inference engine and offering model checking techniques to test the cognitive and dynamic comportment of the framework being designed. © 2011 IEEE.

El presente artículo intenta abordar ideas fundamentales en los procesos de comunicación e información en los servicios de salud visto desde las concepciones de una organización dinámica que responde a los criterios de un sis tema vivo; desarrollándose eventos de interdependencia, autoorganización y/o autopoiético como sistemas dinámicos alejados del equilibrio termodinámico, en donde los procesos de comunicación e información se gestionan co mo me mes o genes de replicación de forma tal que la comunicación e información sea confiable, completa y oportuna The present article tries to approach fundamental ideas in the processes of communication and information the services of health seen from the conceptions of an organization who responds to the criteria of an alive system; being developed events of interdependence, auto-organization or autopoético like moved away dynamic systems of the thermodynamic balance, in where the communication processes information I know manage like memes or replication genes so that the communication and information is reliable, complete and opportune

Ambient Intelligence (AmI) is born as a computer paradigm that deals with a new world where computing devices are spread everywhere in order to make wider the interaction between human beings and information technology and put together a dynamic computational-ecosystem capable of satisfying the users requirements. However, the AmI systems are more than a simple integration among computer technologies, indeed, their design can strongly depend upon psychology and social sciences aspects able to describe and analyze the human being status during the system's decision making. Consequently, from a computational point of view, an AmI system can be considered as a distributed cognitive framework composed by a collection of intelligent entities capable of modifying their behaviours by taking into account the user's cognitive status in a given time. This paper introduces a novel methodology of AmI systems' design that exploits multi-agent paradigm and a novel extension of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps theory benefiting on the theory of Timed Automata in order to create a collection of dynamical intelligent agents that use cognitive computing to define actions' patterns able to maximize environmental parameters as, for instance, user's comfort or energy saving. ©2009 IEEE.

A modeling framework to evaluate the costs and benefits of implementation of Controller Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC), and Air Traffic Management (ATM) decision support tools is proposed in this paper. The benefit/cost evaluation is carried out for four key alternatives namely alternative A: Do nothing scenario (only voice channel), alternative B: Voice channel supplemented with CPDLC, alternative C: Alternative B with ATM tools in a non-integrated scenario and finally alternative D: Alternative B with ATM tools in an integrated scenario. It is a bi-level model that captures the linkages between various technologies at a lower microscopic level using a daily microscopic model (DATSIM) and transfers the measures of effectives to a higher macroscopic level. DATSIM stands for Data Link and Air Traffic Technologies SIMulation and it simulates air traffic in the enroute sector and terminal airspace for a single day and captures the measures of effectiveness at a microscopic level and feeds its output to the macroscopic annual model which then runs over the entire life cycle of the system. Airspace dwell time benefit data from the microscopic model is regressed into three dimensional benefit surfaces as a function of the equipage level of aircraft and aircraft density and embedded into the macroscopic model. The main function of the annual model is to ascertain economic viability of any deployment schedule or alternative over the entire life cycle of the system. The life cycle cost model is composed of four modules namely: Operational benefits module, Safety benefit module,Technology cost module and Training cost module. Analysis using the model showed that an enroute sector gets congested at aircraft densities greater 630 per day. This is mainly because the controller workload gets saturated at that traffic volume per day. Benefits realized in alternatives B, C and D as compared to alternative A increased exponentially at traffic densities greater than 630 i.e. when controller workload for alternative A becomes saturated. Master of Science

Este trabajo presenta la aplicación de la metodología integral y dinámica en la programación y control dinámico de proyectos. Para esto, a partir de la metodología se desarrolla un modelo que combina redes de actividad AON (actividad en el nodo) bajo los supuestos CPM, ejecución multimodo y dinámica de sistemas. El modelo se operacionaliza por medio del desarrollo de una red de programación y una red de ejecución que interactúan a través de un bucle de control. La propuesta se valida utilizando las redes de 16 actividades de la librería MRCPSP de PSPLIB. El modelo derivado de la metodología presenta ventajas significativas en los indicadores característicos en gestión de proyectos. El trabajo concluye con la propuesta de nuevas combinaciones de herramientas, que unidas a la metodología permiten abordar problemas de programación y control de proyectos con mayor variabilidad y complejidad. This paper presents the implementation of the integral and dynamic methodology in the scheduling and dynamic control of projects. For this purpose and using the above-mentioned methodology, a model which combines activity networks AON (activity on node), CPM, multimode execution and system dynamics is developed. The model is operationalized by developing two separate networks, i.e., a scheduling network on the one hand and the execution network on the other hand, in order to interact through a control loop. The proposal is validated using activity networks with 16 activities selected from MRCPSP of PSPLIB library. The model derived from the methodology has significant advantages in characteristic indicators of the project management. The paper concludes with a proposal of new combinations of tools, which, together with the methodology, can address problems of scheduling and control of projects with greater variability and complexity.

Global energy consumption has been increasing in recent years. Among the main global energy sources, natural gas stands out. It presents benefits from diverse points of view, low emissions for the environment, low price for the consumers, lower cost and simplicity in the supply. That is why, within the global policies of emission reduction, natural gas is considered the source of transition energy between fossil fuels and clean, renewable and sustainable sources of energy. Considering that natural gas is a non-renewable resource, it presents a significant and progressive reduction in reserves in some regions worldwide, but with ample possibilities for the discovery of new reserves and transport from regions with greater availability of this resource. This reduction is not different to the Colombian case, where there has even been a reduction in the national production in contrast to the accelerated increase in demand from the various consumer sectors, which exposes the nation to a situation of shortages of this resource in the next years, this being even more critical, since power generation in Colombia highly depends on hydroelectricity, making natural gas to emerge as an attractive backup energy production of electricity through thermoelectric generation, in the occurrence of climatic phenomena of drought and decrease in river levels. Research carried out regarding the supply of natural gas in some regions of the world and even in Colombia, account for the analysis of elements such as price, environmental impact, reliability and essentially using optimization model, but nevertheless, these investigations do not consider the integration of both public and private actors from the perspective of Supply Chain Management (SCM), which affects the overall performance and results achieved by the system. In the supply of natural gas in Colombia, various actors intervene to extract, produce and transport, which interact to guarantee the supply of the resource. Therefore, by framing these actors according to an integrated perspective and analysing the outcomes of public policies through the use of dynamic simulation models, it is possible to identify which of these policies may produce the greatest impact in the future in terms of generating the necessary capacity and reliability in the supply, that is useful for stakeholders and decision makers. In this dissertation, the supply of natural gas for the Colombian case is studied, with a focus on the analysis of the integration and interaction of the actors involved in its Supply Chain Management, considering the necessary policies that guarantee the reliability of the national system, through models that combine Systems Dynamics Simulation (SD) and Dynamic Performance Management (DPM). As emerged by the analysis of the prevailing literature, the foregoing seeking to contribute to the research on managing natural gas supply through dynamic models has not been exhaustively addressed in previous research. This thesis is formed by three chapters containing each a research article. The first chapter analyses in depth previous research regarding natural gas supply and the use of systems dynamics, then, it presents a scenarios analysis to study the effect of variables such as percentage of reliability and time of generation of capacity in transportation of natural gas supply. This allows decision makers to establish priorities in the allocation of resources for the implementation of infrastructure projects. In the second chapter, more entities are involved in the supply chain of natural gas, such as reserves, production, transport and demand, and an analysis of the effect of the price at the mouth of the well on the supply and demand of production and the price to the consumer on the supply and demand of transport is carried out. Such an analysis enables the identification of stabilization values for these prices and the levels of capacity in construction and existing one by the actors with respect to the natural gas demand projections. Eventually, in the third chapter, based on the findings of the previous chapters, the Dynamic Performance Management (DPM) methodology is applied to evaluate the impact of public policies aimed at enhancing reliability and the development of necessary capacity in the actors of the chain of natural gas supply, guaranteeing the uninterrupted provision of this resource.