Search

We build upon the Minskyan concepts of 'thwarting mechanisms' and 'supercycles' to develop a framework for analysing the dynamic evolutionary interactions between macrofinancial, institutional and political processes. Thwarting mechanisms are institutional structures that aim to stabilise the macrofinancial system. The effectiveness of these structures changes over time as a result of profit-seeking innovations and long-run destabilising processes. New institutional structures emerge in response, influenced by political and ideological conflicts. This generates a secular cyclical pattern in capitalism, the 'supercycle', with a longer duration than standard business and financial cycles. To illustrate this, we develop a macrofinancial stability index which we use to identify two supercycles in the G7 countries in the post-war period. We label these the industrial capitalism supercycle and the financial globalisation supercycle. For each, we apply a four-phase classification system, based on the effectiveness of institutions, customs and political structures for stabilising the macrofinancial system. The supercycles framework can be used to explain and anticipate macro financial and thus political developments, and moves beyond approaches in which these developments are treated as exogenous shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the evolution of innovation in the mining sector and how this innovation responds to the economic environment, in particular to changes in commodity prices. For this purpose, we combine commodity price data with innovation data as proxied by patent filings extracted from a novel unit record database containing comprehensive patent and firm-level data for the mining sector from 1970 to 2015. We include patents registered both by mining companies and mining equipment, technology, and service (METS) firms. With a multi-country panel analysis, we find that innovation in the mining sector is cyclical. Innovation increases in periods of high commodity prices while decreasing during commodity price recessions. Our results suggest that innovation increases mostly with long price cycle variations, while mostly unaffected by medium and short cycles. METS-related innovation seem the driving force of this mechanism. In contrast, countries specializing in mining industries are found to be slower in reacting to price changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Area‐selective deposition (ASD) shows great promise for sub‐10 nm manufacturing in nanoelectronics, but significant challenges remain in scaling to ultrasmall dimensions and understanding feature‐dependent nonuniformity and selectivity loss. This work addresses these problems by simultaneously quantifying uniformity and selectivity for passivation/deposition/etch supercycles in 45 nm half‐pitch TiN/SiO2 line/space patterns. This work employs three selective processes that are uniquely suited for supercycle processing: dimethylamino‐trimethylsilane (DMA‐TMS) inhibition, TiO2 atomic layer deposition (ALD), and HBr/BCl3 plasma etch. The DMA‐TMS inhibition selectively passivates the SiO2 nongrowth surface without affecting deposition on the TiN and TiO2 growth surfaces. The plasma etch removes TiO2 defect particles at a faster rate than the conformal TiO2 film or SiO2 lines. Using three supercycles of this process, this work demonstrates 8 nm of TiO2 with 88% uniformity and ≈100% selectivity according to transmission electron microscopy (TEM), a 2×improvement in film thickness from previous reports in similar nanoscale patterns. Integrated consideration of uniformity and selectivity at specific feature scales will facilitate the effective design of selective deposition processes for nanoscale electronic devices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Area‐selective deposition (ASD) shows great promise for sub‐10 nm manufacturing in nanoelectronics, but significant challenges remain in scaling to ultrasmall dimensions and understanding feature‐dependent nonuniformity and selectivity loss. This work addresses these problems by simultaneously quantifying uniformity and selectivity for passivation/deposition/etch supercycles in 45 nm half‐pitch TiN/SiO2 line/space patterns. This work employs three selective processes that are uniquely suited for supercycle processing: dimethylamino‐trimethylsilane (DMA‐TMS) inhibition, TiO2 atomic layer deposition (ALD), and HBr/BCl3 plasma etch. The DMA‐TMS inhibition selectively passivates the SiO2 nongrowth surface without affecting deposition on the TiN and TiO2 growth surfaces. The plasma etch removes TiO2 defect particles at a faster rate than the conformal TiO2 film or SiO2 lines. Using three supercycles of this process, this work demonstrates 8 nm of TiO2 with 88% uniformity and ≈100% selectivity according to transmission electron microscopy (TEM), a 2×improvement in film thickness from previous reports in similar nanoscale patterns. Integrated consideration of uniformity and selectivity at specific feature scales will facilitate the effective design of selective deposition processes for nanoscale electronic devices.

This paper emphasizes the use of data-driven techniques to discern trends in commodity prices. Whereas many previous papers rely on parametric assumptions, we take as our departure point the view that such trends are inherently nonparametric, driven by complex forces of innovation and obsolescence, competition and strategic behavior, resource depletion and discovery, and supply and demand. Our reference specification is the partial linear model yt = f(t) + ztβ + ϵt where macroeconomic variables z enter parametrically, and f is nonparametric, to be discovered using cross-validation.We analyze data on 11 commodities—3 hydrocarbons and 8 metals. For the majority of these commodities, our data-driven estimates of f bear close similarity to band pass estimates which include long term trends and super cycles. The OPEC effect is estimated to have increased oil prices by over 50% on average and coal prices by about 25%. U.S. coal mining legislation is estimated to have increased coal prices by 9% to 15%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analyses of cores retrieved from three sites near Port Blair (South Andaman) revealed out-of-sequence deposits at various depths. They are identified as previous episodes of tsunami by their sediment characteristics and microfossil content, using the 2004 event deposition as a template. These deposits have median ages of 601 cal. yr BP, 837 cal. yr BP, 1440 cal. yr BP, 3018 cal. yr BP, 3591 cal. yr BP, 4712 cal. yr BP, 5607 cal. yr BP, and 6357 cal. yr BP and are chronologically equivalent of those from the far-field locations in the Indian Ocean region. The distant deposits that are correlated with the South Andaman sites most likely owe their origin to the 2004-type events, as indicated by tsunami simulations in the study region. The long-term record presented here is characterized by an early phase of a quasiperiodic recurrence regime that transitions into a distinct interval of temporally clustered events. The quasiperiodic regime that appears around the mid-Holocene with an inter-event interval of 980 ± 385 years is followed by a sizable quiescent period of 1605 ± 245 years, before being succeeded by a regime of temporally clustered events. The chronology of nine tsunami events in the last 6500 years from the Indian Ocean region, thus implies a nonlinear pattern for the causative earthquakes. As demonstrated in the subduction zones elsewhere, the temporal variability of tsunamigenic great earthquakes is supported by the theoretical models espousing the characteristics of long-term stress recycling processes active within the subduction zones and transfer processes between the lower viscoelastic layer and the upper seismogenic crust. • Provides a 6500-year sedimentary record from the South Andaman • The results are compared with the paleo-tsunamis records from elsewhere in the Indian Ocean coasts • Repeated tsunami patterns are categorized by clustered cycles separated by quiescence intervals • Non-linear temporal regimes of mega events can be used as a baseline inputs for theoretical models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study I review the main scientific contributions of Minsky and other scholars to the financial instability and crisis issues, and the role of institutions in modeling the medium and long financial and business waves. The topics developed in this paper are the following: the relationships between financial instability, financial and business crisis and institutions; the thwarting of the explosive instability by the specific institutions' actions and regulations; the impact of the institutional changes on the financial and business cycles; an empiric approach to the financial and business cycles and their synchronization in the Central and Eastern European countries/ members of the EU, taking into account the main characteristics of the changes in these countries' institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important preceding step for the demonstration of an uncharacteristic (q-deformed) statisticalmechanical structure in the dynamics of the Feigenbaum attractor we uncover previously unknown properties of the family of periodic superstable cycles in unimodal maps. Amongst the main novel properties are the following: i) The basins of attraction for the phases of the cycles develop fractal boundaries of increasing complexity as the period-doubling structure advances towards the transition to chaos. ii) The fractal boundaries, formed by the pre-images of the repellor, display hierarchical structures organized according to exponential clusterings that manifest in the dynamics as sensitivity to the final state and transient chaos. iii) There is a functional composition renormalization group (RG) fixed-point map associated with the family of supercycles. iv) This map is given in closed form by the same kind of q-exponential function found for both the pitchfork and tangent bifurcation attractors. v) There is final-stage ultra-fast dynamics towards the attractor, with a sensitivity to initial conditions which decreases as an exponential of an exponential of time. We discuss the relevance of these properties to the comprehension of the discrete scale-invariance features, and to the identification of the statistical-mechanical framework present at the period-doubling transition to chaos. This is the first of three studies (the other two are quoted in the text) which together lead to a definite conclusion about the applicability of q-statistics to the dynamics associated to the Feigenbaum attractor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adiabatic pulses have been widely used for broadband decoupling and spin inversion at high magnetic fields. In this paper we propose adiabatic pulses and supercycles that can be used at high magnetic fields like 800 or 900 MHz to obtain broadband TOCSY sequences with C,C or H,H J-transfer. The new mixing sequences are equal or even superior to the well known DIPSI-2,3 experiments with respect to bandwidth. They prove robust against pulse miscalibration and B1 inhomogeneity and are therefore attractive for fully automated spectrometer environments. These adiabatic mixing sequences have been incorporated in a novel z-filter HCCH-TOCSY experiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subject of this paper is polymorphism maintenance due to stabilizing selection with a moving optimum. It was shown that in case of two-locus additive control of the selected trait, global polymorphism is possible only when the geometric mean fitnesses of double homozygotes averaged over the period are lower than that of the single heterozygotes and of the double heterozygote (with a multiplier [1 - r] p , which depends on recombination rate r and period length p). But local stability of polymorphism cannot be excluded even if geometric mean fitnesses of all double homozygotes are higher than that of all heterozygotes. We proved, that for logarithmically convex fitness functions, cyclical changes of the optimum cannot help in polymorphism maintenance in case of additive control of the selected trait by two equal loci. However, within the same class of fitness functions, nonequal gene action and/or dominance effect for one or both loci may lead to local polymorphism stability with large enough polymorphism attracting domain. The higher the intensity of selection and closer the linkage between selected loci the larger is this domain. Note that even simple cyclical selection could result in two forms of polymorphic limiting behavior: (a) usually expected forced cycle with a period equal to that of environmental changes; and (b) "supercycles," nondumping auto-oscillations with a period comprising of hundreds of forced oscillation periods., (© 1996 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)