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Osmanthus fragrans is a valuable landscaping tree that is appreciated worldwide. However, the optimal environmental conditions for O. fragrans cultivation have yet to be studied in detail, which hinders the preservation of wild resources of this plant and its commercial exploitation. The maximum entropy model was applied to assess the significance of environment variables influencing O. fragrans distribution. Combining data from 629 global distribution points for O. fragrans, predictions were made on the potential effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of suitable habitats for this species in the present and the future. The results indicated that O. fragrans preferred a warm and humid growing environment. Under the current climatic conditions, the potential habitats for O. fragrans were mostly located in the eastern coastal areas of the continents at medium and low latitudes. The main environmental variables that affected its distribution were the precipitation during the warmest quarter, the temperature seasonality, and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. The analysis indicated that the continuation of current trends in climate change will result in the further reduction of suitable habitats for O. fragrans growth, and the global centroid will shift to the southeast. These findings provided insight into the impact of climate change on O. fragrans habitats, as well as provide guidance for the conservation of wild resources of this species and the breeding of more climate change‐resistant varieties for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Nepal, the distributions of three bear species vary: sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) in the lowlands, Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) in the mid-hills, and brown bears (Ursus arctos) in the high Himalayas. We utilized 179 occurrence points for sloth bears, 199 for Asiatic black bears, and 41 points for brown bears to construct a habitat model incorporating climate and topographic variables. Employing various species distribution modeling algorithms in BIOMOD2, the model predicts suitable habitats spanning 10,971.75 km2 for sloth bears; 29,470.75 km2 for Asiatic black bears; and 6152.97 km2 for brown bears. Within protected areas, the habitat for sloth bears is 4120.56 km2, that for Asiatic black bears is 9688.67 km2, and that for brown bears is 4538.67 km2. Chitwan National Park emerged as the prime sloth bear habitat with a core area of 918.55 km2 and a buffer zone of 726.485 km2. The Annapurna Conservation Area was deemed suitable for Asiatic black bears and brown bears, covering 2802.23 km2 and 2795.91 km2, respectively. The models projected a significant reduction in the habitat of these bear species both inside and outside protected areas. As predicted under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)2–4.5 scenario, sloth bears may experience 54.9% (2050) and 44.7% (2070) losses, respectively, of habitat; Asiatic black bears, 11.2% (2050) and 16.8% (2070); and brown bears, 68.41% (2050) and 82.20% (2070) losses. The overlap between sloth bears and black bears spans 38.7 km2, and that between brown bears and black bears is 26.6 km2. Notably, all three bear species exhibited suitability correlations with the intermediate temperature of the driest quarter. Examining current and projected habitats provides essential information for guiding conservation strategies and ensuring the conservation of these bear species in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change exerts great effects on plant distributions. However, the response of Prunus mira Koehne, one of the most important species for ecological protection in the southeast of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, to climate change remains unclear. To explore the ecological factors affecting the distribution of P. mira in the context of global climate change, the MaxENT model is used to predict suitable habitats for P. mira. Our study indicated that the distribution of Prunus mira Koehn is primarily influenced by temperature rather than precipitation, and warming can facilitate the growth of P. mira. When the temperature seasonality (bio4) ranges from 134 to 576 and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11) ranges from −2.6 °C to 2.7 °C, it is most conducive to the growth of P. mira. Among the four climate scenarios, the optimal habitat for P. mira is predominantly concentrated in river valley areas and is expected to expand into higher altitude regions, particularly in the north and southeast. SSP245 and SSP370 climate pathways are conducive to the growth and spatial expansion of P. mira. Our findings highlight the significant impact of temperature not precipitation on the distribution of P. mira, and this insight is crucial for the stability and conservation of this ecologically significant plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rubus idaeus is a pivotal cultivated species of raspberry known for its attractive color, distinct flavor, and numerous health benefits. It can be used in pharmaceutical, cosmetics, agriculture and food industries not only as fresh but also as a processed product. Nowadays due to climatic changes, genetic diversity of cultivars has decreased dramatically. However, until now, the status of wild R. idaeus resources in China have not been exploited. In this study, we investigated the resources of wild R. idaeus in China to secure its future potential and sustainability. The MaxEnt model was used to predict R. idaeus suitable habitats and spatial distribution patterns for current and future climate scenarios, based on wild domestic geographic distribution data, current and future climate variables, and topographic variables. The results showed that, mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), and temperature seasonality (bio4) were crucial factors affecting the distribution of R. idaeus. Presently, the suitable habitats were mainly distributed in the north of China including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang. According to our results, in 2050s, the total suitable habitat area of R. idaeus will increase under SSP1-2.6 and then will be decreased with climate change, while in the 2090s, the total suitable habitat area will continue to decrease. From the present to the 2090s, the centroid distribution of R. idaeus in China will shift towards the east and the species will always be present in Inner Mongolia. Our results provide wild resource information and theoretical reference for the protection and rational utilization of R. idaeus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Rubus idaeus is a pivotal cultivated species of raspberry known for its attractive color, distinct flavor, and numerous health benefits. It can be used in pharmaceutical, cosmetics, agriculture and food industries not only as fresh but also as a processed product. Nowadays due to climatic changes, genetic diversity of cultivars has decreased dramatically. However, until now, the status of wild R. idaeus resources in China have not been exploited. In this study, we investigated the resources of wild R. idaeus in China to secure its future potential and sustainability. The MaxEnt model was used to predict R. idaeus suitable habitats and spatial distribution patterns for current and future climate scenarios, based on wild domestic geographic distribution data, current and future climate variables, and topographic variables. The results showed that, mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), and temperature seasonality (bio4) were crucial factors affecting the distribution of R. idaeus. Presently, the suitable habitats were mainly distributed in the north of China including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang. According to our results, in 2050s, the total suitable habitat area of R. idaeus will increase under SSP1-2.6 and then will be decreased with climate change, while in the 2090s, the total suitable habitat area will continue to decrease. From the present to the 2090s, the centroid distribution of R. idaeus in China will shift towards the east and the species will always be present in Inner Mongolia. Our results provide wild resource information and theoretical reference for the protection and rational utilization of R. idaeus.

Persian Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa subgutturosa) is one of the most important herbivores of the steppes of Iran, which is found in different plains and desert areas. Today, the distribution of this species is limited to special areas, which has caused it to be placed in the Vulnerable Class (VU) of the IUCN Red List. In this condition, the phenomenon of climate change as one of the biggest challenges of the current century has affected the habitat conditions and the range of distribution of large mammals such as Persian Gazelle and caused it to change. This research aimed to assess climate change impacts on the efficiency of protected areas and to model the distribution of Persian Gazella. In order to predict the distribution of this species in current and future conditions, the weighted Mahalanobis modeling approach was used. Based on the model used, about 31% of the studied area was identified as a suitable habitat at the present. The overlap between protected areas and suitable habitats was 16%. The research findings showed that by 2070, under the pessimistic scenario of the MRI-ESM2-0 model, 2% of the suitable habitat of the Gazella species will be lost.

Abstract The Chinese government has introduced a carbon neutral policy to cope with the rapid changes in the global climate. It is not clear what impact this policy will have on wildlife. Therefore, this study analyzed the suitable habitat distribution of China’s unique leopard subspecies in northern Shaanxi, and simulated the potential suitable habitat distribution under different carbon emission scenarios at two time points of future carbon peak and carbon neutralization. We found that in the future SSPs 126 scenario, the suitable habitat area and the number of suitable habitat patches of North China leopard will continue to increase. With the increase of carbon emissions, it is expected that the suitable habitat of North China leopard will continue to be fragmented and shifted. When the annual average temperature is lower than 8 °C, the precipitation seasonality is 80–90 mm and the precipitation of the warmest quarter is greater than 260 mm, the probability of occurrence of North China leopard is higher. The increase in carbon emissions will lead to the reduction, migration, and fragmentation of the suitable habitat distribution of the North China leopard. Carbon neutrality policies can protect suitable wild habitats. In the future, the impact of carbon neutrality policies on future wildlife habitat protection should be carried out in depth to effectively promote the construction of wildlife protection projects.

The Chinese government has undertaken a significant forest restoration project, leading to a notable increase in forested areas. Despite this achievement, there is uncertainty regarding its impact on wildlife protection. To assess this, we utilized high-resolution remote sensing data to gather information on land use, bioclimatic conditions, geography, and human activity. This information was used to model and analyze changes in suitable habitats for Chinese endemic brown-eared pheasants over the past 30 years to determine the effects of the forest restoration project on wildlife habitats. Our analysis revealed that although the suitable habitat area for the brown-eared pheasant has expanded, the increased forested area did not influence their distribution. Our study also found that increasing elevation and decreasing grassland area in landscape patches promoted the distribution of brown-eared pheasants. Furthermore, the annual variation of the min temperature of coldest month and annual precipitation is an important factor affecting the suitable habitat distribution of brown-eared pheasants. Research showed that the suitable habitat of brown-eared pheasant is seriously fragmented, and the connectivity between habitats should be strengthened in the future. Based on our findings, we believe that existing forest restoration project policies cannot effectively protect wildlife due to neglecting key environmental factors at the landscape scale. Therefore, we recommend developing refined land use management policies at the landscape level to guide future ecological protection and biodiversity conservation. These findings significantly affect policy and future research on wildlife protection and forest restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to overexploitation and habitat loss, the Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) is in such extreme decline that it is so rare in the wild as to be considered functionally extinct, even in Guangdong, which was historically a major distribution area for the species. This study sought to verify whether functional extinction has occurred using observation records from field surveys, infrared wildlife cameras, rescue and enforcement cases and the published literature. The results indicated that suitable habitat occurred within 63.4% of the forested land in Guangdong, but only 17.6% of this area was deemed highly suitable, and 82.3% of all suitable habitat occurred outside of protected areas. Thus, the Chinese pangolin is not yet functionally extinct in Guangdong, but urgent conservation and restoration actions must be taken to ensure its persistence. Chinese pangolins in Guangdong Province are primarily distributed in the Lianhua Mountain and Nanling Mountains, with 91.6% belonging to a single population. From 1980 to 2020, the urban area increased by 776 km2, largely via conversion from agricultural land (48.6%). Suitable habitat for Chinese pangolins was reduced and became more fragmented over this time period, highlighting the urgent need for the establishment of protected areas, habitat restoration and cooperation with local residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cyclobalanopsis gilva, a valuable timber species in China, holds significant importance for understanding the constraints imposed by climate change on the dynamic geographic distribution of tree species. This study utilized the MaxEnt maximum entropy model to reconstruct the migratory dynamics of C. gilva geographical distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum. The objective was to comprehend the restrictive mechanisms of environmental factors on its potential geographical distribution, aiming to provide insights for mid-to-long-term afforestation planning of C. gilva. The optimized MaxEnt model exhibited a significantly high predictive accuracy, with an average AUC value of 0.949 ± 0.004 for the modern suitable habitat model of C. gilva. The total suitable habitat area for C. gilva in contemporary times was 143.05 × 104 km2, with a highly suitable habitat area of 3.14 × 104 km2. The contemporary suitable habitat was primarily located in the southeastern regions of China, while the highly suitable habitat was concentrated in eastern Fujian and central-eastern Taiwan. Bioclimatic variables such as mean diurnal range (Bio2), min temperature of coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) predominantly influenced the modern geographic distribution pattern of C. gilva, with temperature factors playing a leading role. With global climate warming, there is a risk of fragmentation or even loss of suitable habitat for C. gilva by 2050 and 2090. Therefore, the findings of this study can significantly contribute to initiating a habitat conservation campaign for this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government has introduced a carbon neutral policy to cope with the rapid changes in the global climate. It is not clear what impact this policy will have on wildlife. Therefore, this study analyzed the suitable habitat distribution of China's unique leopard subspecies in northern Shaanxi, and simulated the potential suitable habitat distribution under different carbon emission scenarios at two time points of future carbon peak and carbon neutralization. We found that in the future SSPs 126 scenario, the suitable habitat area and the number of suitable habitat patches of North China leopard will continue to increase. With the increase of carbon emissions, it is expected that the suitable habitat of North China leopard will continue to be fragmented and shifted. When the annual average temperature is lower than 8 °C, the precipitation seasonality is 80–90 mm and the precipitation of the warmest quarter is greater than 260 mm, the probability of occurrence of North China leopard is higher. The increase in carbon emissions will lead to the reduction, migration, and fragmentation of the suitable habitat distribution of the North China leopard. Carbon neutrality policies can protect suitable wild habitats. In the future, the impact of carbon neutrality policies on future wildlife habitat protection should be carried out in depth to effectively promote the construction of wildlife protection projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the distribution of species due to global climate change have a critically significant impact on the increase in the spread of invasive species. An in-depth study of the distribution patterns of invasive species and the factors influencing them can help to better predict and combat invasive alien species. Rhynchophorus ferrugineus Olivier is an invasive species that primarily harms plants of Trachycarpus H. Wendl. The pest invades trees in three main ways: by laying eggs and incubating them in the crown of the plant, on roots at the surface and at the base of the trunk or petiole. Most of the plants in the genus Trachycarpus are taller, and the damage is concentrated in the middle and upper parts of the plant, making control more difficult. In this paper, we combine 19 bioclimatic variables based on the MaxEnt model to project the current and future distributions of R. ferrugineus under three typical emission scenarios (2.6 W m −2 (SSP1-2.6), 4.5 W m −2 (SSP2-4.5) and 8.5 W m −2 (SSP5-8.5)) in the 2050s and 2090s. Among the 19 bioclimatic variables, five variables were screened out by contribution rates, namely annual mean temperature (BIO 1), precipitation of driest quarter (BIO 17), minimum temperature of coldest month (BIO 6), mean diurnal range (BIO 2) and precipitation of wettest quarter (BIO 16). These five variables are key environmental variables that influence habitat suitability for R. ferrugineus and are representative in reflecting its potential habitat. The results showed that R. ferrugineus is now widely distributed in the southeastern coastal area of China (high suitability zone), concentrating in the provinces of Hainan, Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi and Taiwan. In the future, the area of high and low suitability zones will increase and the area of medium suitability zones will decrease. The area of low suitability zone will still be in the largest proportion. This study aims to provide a theoretical reference for the future control of R. ferrugineus from the perspective of geographic distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perina nuda (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) is an important leaf‐feeding pest of Ficus species. It significantly affects the growth and reproduction of Ficus species, the economic prospects of growers, and the beauty of urban gardens. This study employed the MaxEnt model to predict and analyze the potential distribution of P. nuda in China, utilizing global distribution data and the correlation between the distribution of P. nuda and environmental variables. The results showed that the dominant environmental variables influencing the distribution of P. nuda included the warmest quarterly precipitation, coldest monthly minimum temperature, annual precipitation, and wettest monthly precipitation. The potential distribution area of P. nuda in China under current climatic conditions is 158 × 104 km2, accounting for 16.4% of the total area of the country. According to the SSP5‐8.5 scenario in 2050, the potential distribution area of P. nuda is projected to reach 200 × 104 km2, an increase of 26.5% compared to the current. P. nuda is widespread in China and has a tendency to spread, threatening the growth of Ficus species. This study is important for monitoring and control of P. nuda in areas where it is present, and where it may be present in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study provides an assessment of the distribution of key Non-Timber Forest Product species in India, namely Aegle marmelos (L.) Correa, Buchanania lanzan Spreng., Madhuca longifolia (J. Koenig ex L.) J. F. Macbr., Phyllanthus emblica L. and Terminalia bellirica (Gaertn.) Roxb. The suitable habitat was analyzed under current climate scenarios and subsequently, the future distribution (2050s and 2070s) was mapped under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, along with the past distribution (mid-Holocene, ~ 6000 cal year BP) using the MaxEnt species distribution model. The distribution of all species is primarily driven by key bioclimatic factors, including annual precipitation (Bio_12), mean annual temperature (Bio_1), isothermality (Bio_3) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio_19). The results indicate that the present distribution of these species is mainly centred in the Western Ghats regions, Central Highlands, North-eastern India and Siwalik hills. The current study suggests that under the future climate change, the suitable habitat for A. marmelos and T. bellirica is expected to increase while for B. lanzan, M. longifolia and P. emblica, it is projected to decline. A. marmelos and T. bellirica are anticipated to exhibit resilience to future climate changes and are expected to be minimally affected, while B. lanzan, M. longifolia and P. emblica are highly sensitive to high temperature and alteration in rainfall pattern expected under future climate changes. The projections of habitat suitability areas can be used as a valuable foundation for developing conservation and restoration strategies aimed at alleviating the climate change impacts on NTFP species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Young shoots of Aralia elata and young leaves of Eleutherococcus senticosus are two major non-timber forest products in northeastern China. However, human activities and climate change have resulted in serious threats to the habitats of two trees, which greatly limits resource conservation and exploitation of economic forest trees. We used the MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitats of the two economic trees and analyzed the dominant factors affecting their distribution. The results showed that the suitable habitat areas of A. elata and E. senticosus in the current period were 159950 km2 and 123449 km2, respectively, and the suitable habitats of both economic forest trees were located in the eastern part of the northeast region. Climate factors (Annual precipitation, Precipitation Seasonality) and land use factors are important variables influencing changes in suitable habitat for both trees. With the change of climate and land use in the future, the overall trend of suitable habitat for both economic forest trees shows a northward and then a southward migration. These results may provide assistance in developing strategies for resource conservation and sustainable use of A. elata and E. senticosus, and we suggest that stable and suitable habitats should be selected as areas for in situ conservation and breeding of the two economic forest trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Actinidia latifolia, with the highest vitamin C content in its genus, is a unique wild relative of kiwifruit that could be important for genetic breeding research. Climate change significantly influences the distribution range of wild plants. Accurately assessing the potential distribution of wild kiwifruit and its response to climate change is crucial for the effective protection and sustainable utilization of its germplasm resources. In this study, we utilized the optimized MaxEnt model to predict the potential habitats of A. latifolia in China, employing the jackknife test to assess the importance of environmental variables in our modeling process. The results showed that annual precipitation (Bio12) and temperature annual range (Bio7) emerged as the most influential environmental variables affecting the distribution of this kiwifruit wild relative. As radiative forcing and time increase, the potential habitats of A. latifolia in China are projected to shrink southward, thereby exacerbating habitat fragmentation. This research offers significant scientific references for the investigation, protection, cultivation, and application of wild relatives of the kiwifruit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dehong Prefecture of Yunnan Province is a concentrated distribution area of hornbill populations. From December 2020 to November 2021, the field distribution sites of Anthracoceros albirostris，Buceros bicornis and Rhyticeros undulatus were investigated by using the line transects. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable habitat distribution of the three species of hornbills in Dehong Prefecture. Our results showed that the most suitable habitat of Anthracoceros albirostris is mainly distributed in the northwestern and southwestern edges of Yingjiang and Ruili, with a total area of 116 km² . The most suitable habitat of Buceros bicornis is mainly distributed in the southwestern margin of Yingjiang, the northwestern of Longchuan and the southwestern of Ruili, with a total area of about 170 km² . The most suitable habitat of Rhyticeros undulatus is mainly distributed in the northwestern and southwestern edges of Yingjiang and the southwestern of Ruili, with a total area of 305 km² . Aspect, precipitation volume in driest month (Bio14), and the lowest temperature in the coldest month (Bio6) are the most important contributing factors affecting the distribution of Anthracoceros albirostris. Annual precipitation volume (Bio12), Bio14, and slope are the most important contributing factors affecting the distribution of Buceros bicornis. Aspect and Bio6 are the most important contributing factors affecting the distribution of Rhyticeros undulatus. Our results will provide the foundation for future field surveys, conservation planning and habitat management of the three species of hornbill in Dehong Prefecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Xinjiang in China is distinguished by its distinctive regional landscape and high ecological sensitivity. Trollius wildflowers represent a unique and iconic element of the mountain flower landscape in Xinjiang. However, their populations are predominantly distributed in mountainous areas, making them susceptible to climate change. Despite this, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of suitable habitats and ecological niche differentiation for Trollius wildflowers have rarely been quantified. Consequently, simulations were conducted using the R-optimized MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitat distribution of Trollius wildflowers. This was based on the occurrence data and environmental variables for the four species of Trollius (T. altaicus, T. asiaticus, T. dschungaricus, and T. lilacinus) that exist in the study area. The simulation was conducted over a period of time, beginning with the past glacial period and extending to the present, and then to the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under multiple scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The simulation of suitable habitats enabled the measurement of the ecological niche breadth and differentiation. The results demonstrate that the model predictions are precisely accurate, with AUC values exceeding 0.9. Annual mean temperature (Bio1), isothermality (Bio3), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) are the dominant climate variables, in addition to vegetation, elevation, and soil factors. The proportion of suitable habitats for Trollius wildflowers varies considerably over time, from 0.14% to 70.97%. The majority of habitat loss or gain occurs at the edges of mountains, while stable habitats are concentrated in the core of the mountains. The gravity center of suitable habitats also shifts with spatial transfer, with the shifts mainly occurring in a northeasterly–southwesterly direction. The SSP1-2.6 scenario results in the sustained maintenance of habitats, whereas the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios present challenges to the conservation of habitats. The threshold of ecological niche breadth for Trollius wildflowers is subject to fluctuations, while the ecological niche differentiation also varies. The study aims to examine the evolution of the habitat and ecological niche of Trollius wildflowers in Xinjiang under climate change. The findings will provide theoretical support for delineating the conservation area, clarify the scope of mountain flower tourism development and protection of mountain flower resources, and promote the sustainable development of ecotourism and effective utilization of territorial space in Xinjiang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACTThe main aim of our study was to delineate a coherent ecological network for large carnivores, using a unified methodology, which would be flexible and serve as a basis for nature and habitat connectivity protection across the Carpathians. We applied a comprehensive methodological approach based on habitat suitability modelling followed by connectivity modelling. For the habitat suitability modelling, we used a robust set of large carnivores occurrence data, which allowed us to build a solid model. From the model, we derived a layer of patches of suitable habitat of required quality and resistance surface to express landscape permeability. Both outputs were crucial for the connectivity modelling. We applied Random Walk and Least-Cost Path models and combined them to determine feasible connections between suitable habitats. With expert discussions and editing/improvement of modelled corridors, we developed a unique ecological network consisting of various components adapted to the heterogeneity of the Carpathian landscape.

ABSTRACT Osmanthus fragrans is a valuable landscaping tree that is appreciated worldwide. However, the optimal environmental conditions for O. fragrans cultivation have yet to be studied in detail, which hinders the preservation of wild resources of this plant and its commercial exploitation. The maximum entropy model was applied to assess the significance of environment variables influencing O. fragrans distribution. Combining data from 629 global distribution points for O. fragrans, predictions were made on the potential effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of suitable habitats for this species in the present and the future. The results indicated that O. fragrans preferred a warm and humid growing environment. Under the current climatic conditions, the potential habitats for O. fragrans were mostly located in the eastern coastal areas of the continents at medium and low latitudes. The main environmental variables that affected its distribution were the precipitation during the warmest quarter, the temperature seasonality, and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. The analysis indicated that the continuation of current trends in climate change will result in the further reduction of suitable habitats for O. fragrans growth, and the global centroid will shift to the southeast. These findings provided insight into the impact of climate change on O. fragrans habitats, as well as provide guidance for the conservation of wild resources of this species and the breeding of more climate change‐resistant varieties for the future.

Species with narrow ranges, particularly rare and endangered ones, are more vulnerable to rapid climate change. The endangered Pinaceae species Picea smithiana (Wall.) Boiss. (P. smithiana), endemic to the Himalayan region, is of significant economic and ecological importance. Understanding how its distribution responds to climate change is crucial for effective biodiversity conservation. Our research integrates three species distribution models, i.e. MaxEnt, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine, to predict the suitable habitat of P. smithiana in the past, present, and future, and to analyze changes in their spatial distribution patterns. Our study also interprets its geographical distribution patterns through an analysis of multiple environmental factors within its suitable habitat. Our results indicate that, since the last glacial maximum, the suitable habitat of P. smithiana has been shifting towards high latitudes and altitudes, corresponding with its cold tolerance traits. Besides the Himalayan region, suitable habitat of P. smithiana were also predicted in Southwest China, despite a lack of observed occurrences, suggesting possible speciation events linked to the uplift of the Qinghai−Tibetan Plateau. Our study warns that the actual distribution of P. smithiana might be more pessimistic than predictions indicate, with protected areas encompassing less than 27 % of its suitable habitat. This highlights the critical need for intensified conservation and management measures to secure the long-term persistence of P. smithiana.

Invasion risk assessments are essential for making informed decisions, allocating resources, and implementing targeted strategies to prevent or minimize the harmful effects of invasive species on native biodiversity, agricultural productivity, and natural ecosystems. In this study, the random forest algorithm was used to assess the spatial invasion risk of Lantana camara, one of the world’s top 100 worst invasive weeds, across all continents under current and future environmental conditions. The current invasion risk was relatively high on four continents (i.e., Africa, Australia, Oceania, and South America) within approximately 35°N and 35°S latitude, estimated to cover at least 68.98 % of the total land surface. Furthermore, projections for future environmental changes suggested a substantial increase in invasion risk across all continents, with the most significant changes (251.52 %) observed in Europe compared with current invasion levels. Additionally, invasion risk was predicted to extend beyond 35°N latitude. Categorizing 200 countries and territories into distinct risk levels, 27 countries had current invasion potential, and introduction and establishment was predicted in 114 countries. Moreover, at least 45 countries, including Canada, India, Italy, and United States, were projected to transition from no or low invasion risk to high invasion risk and 28 countries had a risk increase of over 50 %. Current study provides valuable insights into the global invasion risk posed by L. camara. These results are expected to be of great utility for invasive weed management, facilitating the development of control and sustainable management strategies for this notorious weed at both global and local scales.

Chimonobambusa utilis is a unique edible bamboo species valued for its economic and nutritional benefits. However, its existence in natural habitats is at risk due to environmental shifts and human interventions. This research utilised the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict potential habitats for Ch. utilis in China, identifying key environmental factors influencing its distribution and analysing changes in suitable habitats under future climate conditions. The results show that the results of the MaxEnt model have high prediction accuracy, with an AUC (Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve) value of 0.997. Precipitation in the driest month (Bio14), altitude (Alt) and isothermality (Bio03) emerged as the primary environmental factors influencing the Ch. utilis distribution. Currently, the suitable habitats area for Ch. utilis is 10.55 × 104 km2. Projections for the 2050s and 2090s indicate potential changes in suitable habitats ranging from -3.79% to 10.52%. In general, the most suitable habitat area will decrease and shrink towards higher latitude areas in the future. This study provides a scientific basis for the introduction, cultivation and conservation of Ch. utilis.

The Maple-leaf oak, Quercus acerifolia (E.J.Palmer) Stoynoff & Hess, is listed as Critically Imperiled by the State of Arkansas and considered endangered in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Oak Species. It is endemic to the interior highlands of the Ouachita Mountains in west-central Arkansas, where it is reported to occur in only four isolated locations. No specific research exists regarding predicted climate change impacts on the Q. acerifolia, but given its small range and habitat specificity, such climate change-driven impacts will likely pose significant risks to remaining populations. We used an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach to predict climatically suitable habitat for Q. acerifolia within its native range. We investigate how future changes in climate may impact habitat suitability. Currently, the estimated area of climatically suitable habitat area for Q. acerifolia is 2,523 km2. By 2050, the predicted climatically suitable habitat area is 749 km2, a 70% reduction in habitat extent. By 2100, the model ensemble predicts a suitable habitat of only 285 km2 or an 89% loss of present suitable habitat. The model ensemble also predicted climatically suitable habitat area in 20 counties (14 in Arkansas and six in Oklahoma), including the currently known four locations in Arkansas. Although Q. acerifolia is rare and is at risk of extinction due to potential climate-change driven habitat reduction, the SDM ensemble identified several new habitat areas for the species. New habitat information can be used to search for existing Q. acerifolia populations or guide reintroduction efforts, leading to enhanced focus on long-term management, conservation, and restoration of this critically-imperiled species.

Global climate changes are expected to profoundly shape species distribution. Quercus oxyphylla, a valuable evergreen broad-leaved tree species, is rigorously conserved and managed in China owing to its substantial scientific, economic, and ecological value. However, the impact of projected climate change on its future distribution and potential climatic drivers remains unclear. Here, a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to explore the distribution of Q. oxyphylla in China under current conditions and three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. We optimized the model using the 'ENMeval' package to obtain the best parameter combination (RM = 1, FC = LQHPT), and multiple evaluation metrics (AUC ≥ 0.9; TSS ≥ 0.6; Kappa ≥ 0.75) verified the high accuracy of the model and the reliability of the prediction results. We found the following: (1) The potential distribution of Q. oxyphylla spans across 28 provinces in China under current climatic conditions, predominantly in southern regions, with Sichuan exhibiting the largest suitable area for survival. The total suitable habitat covers 244.98 × 104 km2, comprising highly, moderately, and poorly suitable habitats of 51.66 × 104 km2, 65.98 × 104 km2, and 127.34 × 104 km2, respectively. (2) Under future climate conditions, the overall geographical boundaries of Q. oxyphylla are predicted to remain similar to the present one, with an increase of 10.29% in the 2050s and 11.31% in the 2070s. In the 2050s, the total suitable habitats for Q. oxyphylla under the three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) might increase by 8.83%, 9.62%, and 12.42%, while in the 2070s they might increase by 10.39%, 17.21%, and 6.33%, respectively. (3) Moreover, the centroid of the suitable area is expected to migrate southwestward under the three scenarios in the future. (4) Annual precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range emerged as the main factors influencing the distribution of Q. oxyphylla, with contributions of 55.9%, 25.7%, and 13.5%, respectively. Our findings refined the spatial arrangement of Q. oxyphylla growth and revealed its climate resilience. This suggested that under climate change, Sichuan and Shaanxi are the optimal regions for cultivation and management, while appropriate conservation strategies should be formulated in Tibet and Hubei. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has been regarded as a major factor affecting the geographic distribution of many endemic rare species on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Tibetan antelope, an endemic rare wildlife, is identified as a national first-class protected wild animal in China. To explore the impacts of human activities and climate change on the spatial distribution pattern of Tibetan antelope, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution of Tibetan antelope under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways in 2050s and 2070s and combined the modelling results of the main forage plants considering the food chains. The results showed that the environment indicators, e.g., elevation, mean temperature of wettest quarter, slope, mean temperature of warmest quarter, landcover, max temperature of warmest month, precipitation of driest month, Stipa capillata, Oxytropis ochrocephala, human influence intensity, were the main factors controlling the distribution of Tibetan antelope. The potential distributions of Tibetan antelope and their 10 forage plants were significantly different under future climate scenarios such as expanding, contracting and shifting. The mean elevation of suitable habitats for Tibetan antelope all increased under the four future scenarios compared with current value. There were protection gaps for Tibetan antelope. Considering the long-distance migration, the integrity of the ecosystem including Qiangtang National Nature Reserve, Altun National Nature Reserve, and Kekexili National Nature Reserve would be established for Tibetan antelope. Our findings will provide important references for the protection and investigation of Tibetan antelope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Corybas taliensis is an endemic species of sky islands in China. Its habitat is fragile and unstable, and it is likely that the species is threatened. However, it is difficult to determine the conservation priority or unit without knowing the genetic background and the overall distribution of this species. In this study, we used double digest restriction-site associated DNA-sequencing (ddRAD-seq) to investigate the conservation genomics of C. taliensis. At the same time, we modeled the extent of suitable habitat for C. taliensis in present and future (2030 and 2090) habitat using the maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) model. Results The results suggested that the related C. fanjingshanensis belongs to C. taliensis and should not be considered a separate species. All the sampling locations were divided into three genetic groups: the Sichuan & Guizhou population (SG population), the Hengduan Mountains population (HD population) and Himalayan population (HM population), and we found that there was complex gene flow between the sampling locations of HD population. MT was distinct genetically from the other sampling locations due to the unique environment in Motuo. The genetic diversity (π, H e ) of C. taliensis was relatively high, but its contemporary effective population size (N e ) was small. C. taliensis might be currently affected by inbreeding depression, although its large population density may be able to reduce the effect of this. The predicted areas of suitable habitat currently found in higher mountains will not change significantly in the future, and these suitable habitats are predicted to spread to other higher mountains under future climate change. However, suitable habitat in relatively low altitude areas may disappear in the future. This suggests that C. taliensis will be caught in a ‘summit trap’ in low altitude areas, however, in contrast, the high altitude of the Himalaya and the Hengduan Mountains are predicted to act as ‘biological refuges’ for C. taliensis in the future. Conclusions These results not only provide a new understanding of the genetic background and potential resource distribution of C. taliensis, but also lay the foundation for its conservation and management.

The Arctic is a global warming 'hot‐spot' that is experiencing rapid increases in air and ocean temperatures and concomitant decreases in sea ice cover. These environmental changes are having major consequences on Arctic ecosystems. All Arctic endemic marine mammals are highly dependent on ice‐associated ecosystems for at least part of their life cycle and thus are sensitive to the changes occurring in their habitats. Understanding the biological consequences of changes in these environments is essential for ecosystem management and conservation. However, our ability to study climate change impacts on Arctic marine mammals is generally limited by the lack of sufficiently long data time series. In this study, we took advantage of a unique dataset on hooded seal (Cystophora cristata) movements (and serum samples) that spans more than 30 years in the Northwest Atlantic to (i) investigate foraging (distribution and habitat use) and dietary (trophic level of prey and location) habits over the last three decades and (ii) predict future locations of suitable habitat given a projected global warming scenario. We found that, despite a change in isotopic signatures that might suggest prey changes over the 30‐year period, hooded seals from the Northwest Atlantic appeared to target similar oceanographic characteristics throughout the study period. However, over decades, they have moved northward to find food. Somewhat surprisingly, foraging habits differed between seals breeding in the Gulf of St Lawrence vs those breeding at the "Front" (off Newfoundland). Seals from the Gulf favoured colder waters while Front seals favoured warmer waters. We predict that foraging habitats for hooded seals will continue to shift northwards and that Front seals are likely to have the greatest resilience. This study shows how hooded seals are responding to rapid environmental change and provides an indication of future trends for the species—information essential for effective ecosystem management and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Global warming is critical to the distribution pattern of endangered plants; therefore, understanding the future changes in the adaptive areas of endangered spruce and driving factors on the Tibetan Plateau is of great research significance for spruce species conservation and sustainability. In this study, variations in the distribution pattern of four endangered spruce species (Picea. Balfouriana, Picea. Linzhiensis, Picea. Complanata, and Picea. Aurantiaca) on the Tibetan Plateau were predicted by the MaxEnt model, and the important environmental variables affecting its geographic distribution were analyzed. We found that under the current climate conditions, the four endangered spruce species were mainly situated in the southern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter was a key environmental variable affecting the geographic distribution of four endangered spruce species, with suitable growth ranges of −9–8 °C for P. balfouriana and −6–5 °C for P. linzhiensis, P. complanata, and P. aurantiaca. Under different future climate pathways, the highly suitable habitat of four endangered spruce was mainly situated in the east, south, and southeast districts of the Tibetan Plateau. With the suitable growth range of key variables continuing to expand on the Tibetan Plateau, the area of suitable habitat for each of the four endangered spruce species increases to varying degrees. Compared with the current climate, four endangered spruce species will expand to the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau under different future climate scenarios, and the degree of expansion will increase with the increase in temperature. This study not only reveals the response of suitable habitats of four endangered spruce species to global warming, but also provides scientific insights for spruce population conservation and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jujube (Ziziphus jujuba var. jujuba Mill.) and sour jujube (Z. jujuba var. spinosa (Bunge) Hu ex H.F.Chow.) are economically, nutritionally, and ecologically significant members of the Rhamnaceae family. Despite their importance, insufficient research on their genetics and habitats has impeded effective conservation and utilization. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted plastome sequencing, integrated distribution data from China, and assessed genetic diversity and suitable habitat. The plastomes of both species exhibited high conservation and low genetic diversity. A new-found 23 bp species-specific Indel in the petL-petG enabled us to develop a rapid Indel-based identification marker for species discrimination. Phylogenetic analysis and dating illuminated their genetic relationship, showing speciation occurred 6.9 million years ago, in a period of dramatic global temperature fluctuations. Substantial variations in suitable climatic conditions were observed, with the mean temperature of the coldest quarter as the primary factor influencing distributions (-3.16°C-12.73°C for jujube and -5.79°C to 4.11°C for sour jujube, suitability exceeding 0.6). Consequently, distinct conservation strategies are warranted due to differences in suitable habitats, with jujube having a broader distribution and sour jujube concentrated in Northern China. In conclusion, disparate habitats and climatic factors necessitate tailored conservation approaches. Comparing genetic diversity and developing rapid species-specific primers will further enhance the sustainable utilization of these valuable species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In May 2020, a bottom-trawl survey in the southern Bohai Sea collected the portunid crab Charybdis bimaculata, a species formerly found in the northern Yellow Sea. In subsequent surveys, C. bimaculata was found to be abundant and likely to occupy habitats and niches of native species. To study the suitability of habitat in the southern Bohai Sea for this crab, nine trawl surveys were conducted between 2020 and 2022 to monitor its dispersal. Using Biomod2 software and combining species occurrence and environmental data, a distribution model for C. bimaculata in the southern Bohai Sea is developed. We analyze relationships between this and other crustacean species by comparing niche widths and their overlap. A random forest model outperforms eight others, and has the highest evaluation indices among single algorithm species-distribution models. The evaluation index of an ensemble model is significantly higher than those of single algorithm models, indicating its greater accuracy and robustness. We report suitable habitat for C. bimaculata to occur mainly in central and northeastern Laizhou Bay, and for this habitat suitability to shift over years from the middle to northeastern waters. Niche width showed a negative trend from 2020 to 2022, and is greater in May than August for each year. Niche overlaps between C. bimaculata and other major crustaceans in the southern Bohai Sea exist. We consider that increased sea surface temperature caused by climate change enabled invasion of C. bimaculata from northern Yellow Sea waters into the southern Bohai Sea, where it can overwinter and complete its life cycle. These results provide a scientific basis upon which monitoring of C. bimaculata in the Bohai Sea can be strengthened to better cope with its invasion and any negative impact on local biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a vital driver of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential suitable area of 12 threatened medicinal plants in the QTP (Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau) under the current and future (2050s, 2070s) three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results showed that the climatically suitable habitats for the threatened medicinal plants were primarily found in the eastern, southeast, southern, and some parts of the central regions on the QTP. Moreover, 25% of the threatened medicinal plants would have reduced suitable habitat areas within the next 30–50 years in the different future global warming scenarios. Among these medicinal plants, RT (Rheum tanguticum) would miss the most habitat (98.97%), while the RAN (Rhododendron anthopogonoides) would miss the least habitat (10.15%). Nevertheless, 33.3% of the threatened medicinal plants showed an increase in their future habitat area because of their physiological characteristics which are more adaptable to a wide range of climates. The climatic suitable habitat for 50% of the threatened medicinal plants would migrate to higher altitudes or higher latitudes regions. This study provides a data foundation for the conservation of biodiversity and wild medicinal plants on the QTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wild large herbivores inhabiting the Yellow-River-Source National Park (YRSNP) are confronted with a significant threat from climate change and human activities. In response to these detrimental influences, measures have been proposed by the government, such as the Ecological Conservation and Restoration Project in the Sanjiangyuan Region (ECRPSR) and the establishment of the Sanjiangyuan National Park (SNP). To advance species diversity, it is crucial to investigate the spatial distribution of large herbivores, identify factors influencing their distribution, and address conflicts arising from divergent plans within the YRSNP. In this study, unmanned aerial vehicles were employed for surveying the distribution of the Tibetan wild ass (Equus kiang) and Tibetan gazelle (Procapra picticaudata). The findings indicate that the optimal habitat area for Tibetan wild ass is 437.16 km2, while for Tibetan gazelle, it is 776.46 km2. Precipitation and the human footprint index emerge as the primary factors influencing the habitat distribution of large herbivores within the YRSNP. Under the influence of the ECRPSR, there was a noteworthy expansion of the habitat area for Tibetan wild ass by 791.25 km2, and for Tibetan gazelle, it expanded by 1612.94 km2. From a wildlife conservation standpoint, this study proposes the establishment of a wildlife refuge in the YRSNP, effective coordination of conflicts between various functional zones and plans, preservation of suitable habitats for large herbivores, and the provision of a scientific foundation to reconcile development and conservation conflicts in the region, while concurrently fostering biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Rodent infestation is a global problem. Rodents cause huge harm to agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry around the world and spread various zoonoses. In this study, we simulated the potentially suitable habitats of Bandicota indica and predicted the impact of future climate change on its distribution under different socio‐economic pathway scenarios of CMIP6 using a parameter‐optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. RESULTS: The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value (0.958 ± 0.006) after ten repetitions proved the high accuracy of the MaxEnt model. Model results show that the annual mean temperature (≥ 15.93 °C), isothermality (28.52–80.49%), annual precipitation (780.13–3863.13 mm), precipitation of the warmest quarter (≥ 204.37 mm), and nighttime light (≥ 3.38) were important limiting environmental variables for the distribution of B. indica. Under current climate conditions, the projected potential suitable habitats for B. indica were mainly in India, China, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, which cover a total area of 301.70 × 104 km2. The potentially suitable areas of B. indica in the world will expand under different future climate change scenarios by 1.61–17.65%. CONCLUSIONS: These results validate the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of B. indica and aid in understanding the linkages between B. indica niches and the relevant environment, thereby identifying urgent management areas where interventions may be necessary to develop feasible early warning and prevention strategies to protect against this rodent's spread. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of our study was to delineate a coherent ecological network for large carnivores, using a unified methodology, which would be flexible and serve as a basis for nature and habitat connectivity protection across the Carpathians. We applied a comprehensive methodological approach based on habitat suitability modelling followed by connectivity modelling. For the habitat suitability modelling, we used a robust set of large carnivores occurrence data, which allowed us to build a solid model. From the model, we derived a layer of patches of suitable habitat of required quality and resistance surface to express landscape permeability. Both outputs were crucial for the connectivity modelling. We applied Random Walk and Least-Cost Path models and combined them to determine feasible connections between suitable habitats. With expert discussions and editing/ improvement of modelled corridors, we developed a unique ecological network consisting of various components adapted to the heterogeneity of the Carpathian landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both Bactrocera minax and Bactrocera dorsalis are phytophagous insects, and their larvae are latent feeders, which cause great damage and economic losses to agriculture production and trade. This study aimed to provide a scientific reference for researching and developing the feasible countermeasures against these two pests. Based on the distribution data of B. minax and B. dorsalis in China, obtained from the Chinese herbaria, investigation and literature. Four niche models (Garp, Bioclim, Domain, and Maxent) were used to analyze the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of both pests and to build prediction models of the potential distribution in Sichuan Basin. Combined with two statistical standards, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Kappa, the validity of prediction models were analyzed and compared. The results show that: the average AUC values of the four models are all above 0.90, and the average Kappa values are all above 0.75, indicating that the four models are suitable for predicting the potential distribution area of B. minax and B. dorsalis. The annual range of temperature, the mean temperature in the driest quarter, the mean temperature in the warmest quarter, the annual precipitation, and the precipitation in driest month are the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of B. minax, while the mean diurnal temperature range, the mean temperature in the driest quarter, the seasonal temperature variations and the precipitation in driest month affect the potential distribution of B. dorsalis. The suitable areas for B. minax are mainly concentrated in the eastern of Sichuan Basin, while the suitable areas for B. dorsalis are concentrated in the southeastern. Except for the Bioclim model, the highly-suitable area for both pests predicted by the other three models are all greater than 15.94 × 104 km2 and the moderately-suitable areas are greater than 13.57 × 104 km2. In conclusion, the suitable areas for both pests in Sichuan Basin are quite wide. Therefore, the relevant authorities should be given strengthened monitoring of both pests, especially in areas with high incursion rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Dendrolimus houi, a phytophagous pest, displays a broad range of adaptations and often inflicts localized damage to its hosts. Cupressus funebris, an indigenous timber species in China, is significantly impacted by D. houi. Investigating the suitable habitat distribution and changes in D. houi and its host plant, C. funebris, within the context of climate warming, is essential for understanding D. houi's development and providing novel insights for managing D. houi and conserving C. funebris resources. In this study, MaxEnt was employed to simulate the distribution of D. houi and its host plant, C. funebris, in their suitable habitats, evaluating the influence of environmental factors on their distribution and determining changes under a warming scenario. MaxEnt model parameters were adjusted using the Kuenm data package based on available distribution and climatic data. The minimum temperature of the coldest month emerged as the primary environmental factor influencing the distribution of a suitable habitat for D. houi and C. funebris, with a percentage contribution of environmental factors over 60%. There was a substantial similarity in the suitable habitat distributions of D. houi and C. funebris, with varying degrees of expansion in the total habitat area under different temporal and climatic scenarios. Intersection analysis results indicated that the 2041–2060 period, especially under low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, is a critical phase for D. houi control. The habitat expansion of D. houi and C. funebris due to climate change was observed, with the distribution center of D. houi shifting northeast and that of C. funebris shifting northwest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) change have received widespread attention as the two main factors contributing to the shrinking of plant habitats. However, the different effects of these factors on understory economic tree species are not clear. This is not conducive to the conservation and exploitation of forest resources. Here, we used species distribution modeling to predict the extent to which climate change and LULC change will affect changes in suitable habitats for A. elata under different scenarios in the future. The results showed the suitable habitat to be located in the Changbai Mountain Range in northeast China. The current area is 110,962 km2. The main variables that affect the suitable habitat are annual precipitation, LULC, slope, and mean diurnal range. The percentage contributions are 31.2%, 16.8%, 12.8%, and 12.3%, respectively. In the 2070s, the area of high-quality (moderately and highly) suitable habitat was reduced by an average of 6.05% when climate alone changed, and by an average of 10.21% when land use alone changed. When both factors changed together, there was an average decrease of 9.69%. When climate change and land use change acted together, the shrinking area of suitable habitat did not suddenly increase. These findings help to identify potentially suitable habitats for A. elata and to carry out conservation and exploitation efforts to ensure sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian boreal forest biome has been subjected to a long history of management for wood production. Here, we examined the cumulative impacts of logging on older forests in terms of area, distribution and patch configuration in the managed forest zones of the Eastern Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. We also examined the consequences of these cumulative impacts on a once widely distributed and now threatened species, the woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). The cumulative area of recently logged forest (since ~1976) was 14,024,619 ha, with 8,210,617 ha in Quebec and 5,814,002 ha in Ontario. The total area of older forests was 21,249,341 ha, with 11,840,474 ha in Quebec and 9,408,867 ha in Ontario. Patch statistics revealed that there were 1,085,822 older forests with core patches < 0.25 ha and an additional 603,052 < 1.0 ha. There were 52 > 10,00–50,000 ha and 8 < 50,000 ha. Older forest patches (critical caribou habitat) in the 21 local population ranges totalled 6,103,534 ha, distributed among ~387,102 patches with 362,933 < 10 ha and 14 > 50,000 ha. The median percentage of local population ranges that was disturbed was 53.5%, with Charlevoix having the maximum (90.3%) and Basse Côte-Nord the least (34.9%). Woodland caribou local population ranges with disturbed suitable habitats >35% are considered unable to support self-sustaining populations. We found that for the 21 caribou local population ranges examined, 3 were at very high risk (>75% area disturbed), 16 at high risk (>45 ≤ 75% area disturbed), and 2 at low risk (≤35% area disturbed). Major changes are needed in boreal forest management in Ontario and Quebec for it to be ecologically sustainable, including a greater emphasis on protection and restoration for older forests, and to lower the risks for caribou populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populus, one of the most extensively cultivated tree species in China, holds substantial potential for carbon sequestration potential and economic value. However, the effects of climate change on different Populus species remain unclear. Consequently, there is an urgency to investigate the potential distribution and dynamics of Populus under current and future climate scenarios. This study employed four ecological niche models and integrated data from multiple environmental sources to analyze the potential distribution patterns of three key Populus species—Populus tomentosa, Populus cathayana, and Populus lasiocarpa—under current and various future climate scenarios (2050, 2070, and 2090). Furthermore, the study identified the primary factors influencing their potential distribution. The occurrence of P. tomentosa was primarily influenced by the minimum temperature of the coldest month. Conversely, human population density was the most important factor for P. cathayana, showing strong positive effects on both P. tomentosa and P. cathayana occurrences. Soil total nitrogen had the strongest positive effect on P. lasiocarpa. The study found P. cathayana primarily in northern and northwestern China (105.45 × 104 km2), P. tomentosa in the northern and central regions (82.85 × 104 km2), and P. lasiocarpa in the southwest (49.17 × 104 km2). Under future climate scenarios, P. tomentosa and P. cathayana may shift towards higher latitudes, while P. lasiocarpa may shift towards lower latitudes. Future elevated temperatures are expected to positively affect Populus, especially P. tomentosa and P. lasiocarpa, thereby increasing their carbon sequestration capacity and carbon market value, which is maximized under a low-concentration scenario (SSP245). This study highlights the importance of climate change in Populus distribution and provides quantified potential distribution maps for three Populus species under current and future climate conditions in China. Based on the different adaptation strategies of Populus species to climate change, we recommend a ''site-specific, categorical planting'' approach to guide effective forest management practices in response to China's dual carbon goals.

The Chinese government has undertaken a significant forest restoration project, leading to a notable increase in forested areas. Despite this achievement, there is uncertainty regarding its impact on wildlife protection. To assess this, we utilized high-resolution remote sensing data to gather information on land use, bioclimatic conditions, geography, and human activity. This information was used to model and analyze changes in suitable habitats for Chinese endemic brown-eared pheasants over the past 30 years to determine the effects of the forest restoration project on wildlife habitats. Our analysis revealed that although the suitable habitat area for the brown-eared pheasant has expanded, the increased forested area did not influence their distribution. Our study also found that increasing elevation and decreasing grassland area in landscape patches promoted the distribution of brown-eared pheasants. Furthermore, the annual variation of the min temperature of coldest month and annual precipitation is an important factor affecting the suitable habitat distribution of brown-eared pheasants. Research showed that the suitable habitat of brown-eared pheasant is seriously fragmented, and the connectivity between habitats should be strengthened in the future. Based on our findings, we believe that existing forest restoration project policies cannot effectively protect wildlife due to neglecting key environmental factors at the landscape scale. Therefore, we recommend developing refined land use management policies at the landscape level to guide future ecological protection and biodiversity conservation. These findings significantly affect policy and future research on wildlife protection and forest restoration.

Cyclobalanopsis gilva, a valuable timber species in China, holds significant importance for understanding the constraints imposed by climate change on the dynamic geographic distribution of tree species. This study utilized the MaxEnt maximum entropy model to reconstruct the migratory dynamics of C. gilva geographical distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum. The objective was to comprehend the restrictive mechanisms of environmental factors on its potential geographical distribution, aiming to provide insights for mid-to-long-term afforestation planning of C. gilva. The optimized MaxEnt model exhibited a significantly high predictive accuracy, with an average AUC value of 0.949 ± 0.004 for the modern suitable habitat model of C. gilva. The total suitable habitat area for C. gilva in contemporary times was 143.05 × 104 km2, with a highly suitable habitat area of 3.14 × 104 km2. The contemporary suitable habitat was primarily located in the southeastern regions of China, while the highly suitable habitat was concentrated in eastern Fujian and central-eastern Taiwan. Bioclimatic variables such as mean diurnal range (Bio2), min temperature of coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) predominantly influenced the modern geographic distribution pattern of C. gilva, with temperature factors playing a leading role. With global climate warming, there is a risk of fragmentation or even loss of suitable habitat for C. gilva by 2050 and 2090. Therefore, the findings of this study can significantly contribute to initiating a habitat conservation campaign for this species.

Abstract Climate change is a vital driver of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential suitable area of 12 threatened medicinal plants in the QTP (Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau) under the current and future (2050s, 2070s) three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results showed that the climatically suitable habitats for the threatened medicinal plants were primarily found in the eastern, southeast, southern, and some parts of the central regions on the QTP. Moreover, 25% of the threatened medicinal plants would have reduced suitable habitat areas within the next 30–50 years in the different future global warming scenarios. Among these medicinal plants, RT (Rheum tanguticum) would miss the most habitat (98.97%), while the RAN (Rhododendron anthopogonoides) would miss the least habitat (10.15%). Nevertheless, 33.3% of the threatened medicinal plants showed an increase in their future habitat area because of their physiological characteristics which are more adaptable to a wide range of climates. The climatic suitable habitat for 50% of the threatened medicinal plants would migrate to higher altitudes or higher latitudes regions. This study provides a data foundation for the conservation of biodiversity and wild medicinal plants on the QTP.

As climatic and other impactful environmental changes continue to gain momentum pollination, services are poised to be harmed, and wild bee species are not an exception. In the present study, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling was used to predict the potential climatic niches of five wild bee species, namely, Chalicodoma flavipes, Chalicodoma sicula, Coelioxys coturnix, Megachile minutissima, and Osmia submicans (all of Megachilidae: Megachilinae). The Maxent model performed better than random for the five species, and all model predictions were significantly robust, giving ratios above null expectations. Under future climate change scenarios, the Maxent model predicted habitat loss for C. flavipes, C. sicula, and M. minutissima in North Africa and habitat loss for O. submicans in Europe and North Africa in all scenarios. Conversely, the study showed that the cleptoparasitic bee Co. coturnix would expand their suitable habitat in most scenarios in Europe, Asia, and the United States, although this species would also suffer habitat loss in North Africa in two scenarios. Between the present situation and future scenarios, the potential distribution for all species decreased in their suitable habitat, with the exception of Co. coturnix. The present results are of considerable value for informed conservation programs and policy decisions regarding wild pollinators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the population size of threatened species is problematic and has biases because of a lack of validation data. The Javan Hawk-Eagle (Nisaetus bartelsi) is an endangered raptor endemic to the remnants of natural rainforests of Java, Indonesia. We aimed to improve the accuracy of population estimates through a combination of current habitat distribution modeling and patch occupancy surveys. Higher-resolution data sources (improved from 250 m to 30 m) were used in a predicted probability model using logistic regression. Patch occupancy surveys were conducted in habitat patches identified from a predictive analysis and field validation results after 2008. We estimated population sizes only in occupied patches ≥20 km2 (size based on Javan Hawk-Eagle home-range size). The area of suitable habitats currently totaled 10,804 km2, as calculated from the results of the 2019 predicted probability model (9106 km2) and field validation (1698 km2). The predicted area in 2019 decreased by 6.5% (638 km2) from that in 2008. We detected small suitable patches because of improvements in data resolution. The patch occupancy survey validated 44 of the 74 patches (59.5%) in the current habitat distribution. We confirmed that 38 patches (10,166 km2) were occupied by Javan Hawk-Eagles, and we estimated the population to be 511 ± 3.1 (SE) pairs. This apparent population increase is attributable to improved methodologies in predicting habitat distribution and estimating population size. La estimación del tamaño poblacional de especies amenazadas es problemática y tiene sesgos debido a la falta de datos de validación. Nisaetus bartelsi es una rapaz en peligro de extinción endémica de los remanentes de los bosques lluviosos naturales de Java, Indonesia. Nuestro objetivo fue mejorar la precisión de las estimaciones poblacionales a través de una combinación de modelos de distribución de hábitat actuales y censos de ocupación de parches. Se utilizaron fuentes de datos de mayor resolución (mejoradas de 250 m a 30 m) en un modelo de probabilidad predictivo usando regresión logística. Se realizaron censos de ocupación en parches de hábitat identificados a partir de un análisis predictivo y de resultados de validación de campo después de 2008. Estimamos los tamaños poblacionales solo en parches ocupados ≥20 km2 (superficie basada en el tamaño del rango de distribución de N. bartelsi). El área de los hábitats adecuados asciende actualmente a 10,804 km2, según se calcula a partir de los resultados del modelo de probabilidad predictivo de 2019 (9106 km2) y la validación de campo (1698 km2). El área pronosticada en 2019 disminuyó un 6.5% (638 km2) con respecto a 2008. Detectamos pequeños parches adecuados debido a las mejoras en la resolución de los datos. El censo de ocupación de parches validó 44 de los 74 parches (59.5%) en la distribución actual del hábitat. Confirmamos que 38 parches (10,166 km2) estuvieron ocupados por N. bartelsi, y estimamos que la población alcanza 511 ± 3.1 (EE) parejas en total. Este aumento poblacional aparente es atribuible a una mejora en las metodologías para predecir la distribución del hábitat y estimar el tamaño poblacional. [Traducción del equipo editorial] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bactrocera minax (Enderlein, 1920) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a destructive citrus pest. It is mainly distributed throughout Shaanxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hubei, Hunan, and Guangxi in China and is considered to be a second-class pest that is prohibited from entering that country. Climate change, new farming techniques, and increased international trade has caused the habitable area of this pest to gradually expand. Understanding the suitable habitats of B. minax under future climate scenarios may be crucial to reveal the expansion pattern of the insect and develop corresponding prevention strategies in China. Methods: Using on the current 199 distribution points and 11 environmental variables for B. minax, we chose the optimal MaxEnt model to screen the dominant factors that affect the distribution of B. minax and to predict the potential future distribution of B. minax in China under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). Results: The current habitat of B. minax is located at 24.1-34.6°N and 101.1-122.9°E, which encompasses the provinces of Guizhou, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, and Yunnan (21.64 × 104 km²). Under future climate scenarios, the potential suitable habitat for B. minax may expand significantly toward the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The land coverage of highly suitable habitats may increase from 21.64 × 104 km² to 26.35 × 104 × 104 km² (2050s, SSP5-8.5) ~ 33.51 × 104 km² (2090s, SSP5-8.5). This expansion area accounts for 29% (2050s, SSP1-2.6) to 34.83% (2090s, SSP1-2.6) of the current habitat. The center of the suitable habitat was predicted to expand towards the northeast, and the scenario with a stronger radiative force corresponded to a more marked movement of the center toward higher latitudes. A jackknife test showed that the dominant variables affecting the distribution of B. minax were the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), the annual precipitation (bio12), the mean diurnal range (bio2), the temperature annual range (bio7), and the altitude (alt). Discussion: Currently, it is possible for B. minax to expand its damaging presence. Regions with appropriate climate conditions and distribution of host plants may become potential habitats for the insects, and local authorities should strengthentheir detection and prevention strategies. Climate changes in the future may promote the survival and expansion of B. minax species in China, which is represented by the significant increase of suitable habitats toward regions of high altitudes and latitudes across all directions but with some shrinkage in the east and west sides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change jeopardizes species survival, particularly for endangered species. This risk extends to the endangered Chinese endemic tree Tapiscia sinensis. The factors underpinning T. sinensis's habitat distribution are poorly understood, and its potential response to future climate scenarios remains unclear. With six shortlisted climate factors and 117 occurrence records, we modeled T. sinensis's potential distribution across China using the BIOCLIM model. We applied principal component analysis to examine the primary climate factors restricting its geographical range. The findings indicate that T. sinensis' range is principally located in China's middle subtropical climatic zone at low–mid altitudes. The principal component analysis identified two critical factors representing temperature and precipitation. Temperature was the most critical factor limiting T. sinensis distribution, especially the effect of temperature seasonality and isothermality. The habitat suitability model generated by BIOCLIM under current climate conditions demonstrated strong concordance between the predicted suitable areas and the present actual distribution range. These results verify that the model can reliably identify habitats conducive to T. sinensis growth and survival. However, under a hypothetical future climate scenario of doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations for 2100, the model indicates a precipitous reduction and fragmentation in the areas with excellent suitability conditions. This predicted decline highlights the considerable threats posed by climate change to the long-term survival of this endangered species in China. Our habitat modeling yields critical insights that inform the development of science-based strategies and best practices to improve conservation management plans for research, protection, nursery cultivation, and sustainable planting in China. Habitat suitability knowledge could aid introduction and cultivation efforts for T. sinensis globally in places with analogous climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]