1. Forecasting students' enrolment in Tanzania government primary schools from 2021 to 2035 using ARIMA model.
- Author
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Kornelio, Sophia, Balan, Ramkumar. T., and Deogratias, Emmanuel
- Subjects
SCHOOL enrollment ,BOX-Jenkins forecasting ,PRIMARY schools ,DATA analysis - Abstract
This article focuses on Forecasting students' enrolment in Tanzania Government Primary Schools from 2021 to 2035. A school enrolment is one of the key determinants of the needed school infrastructure. In Tanzania the Fee Free Primary Education (FFPE) started in 2015 and has caused the enrolment in Tanzania government primary school to increase by 26.8% from 2015 to 2020 which resulted into shortage of schools' infrastructure. The study will provide an information on the primary schools' enrolment from 2021 to 2035 which will help in sensitized the community about the need of their contributions to school infrastructure in their localities. The study used secondary data on total enrolments in Tanzania Government primary schools collected yearly from President's Office, Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG) from 1961 to 2020. Basing on the theory of Box and Jenkins method the results indicated that the ARIMA (1,1,0) is the best fit model to forecast Tanzania government primary's school enrolments because it had the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) of 1618.3417 and 1622.4626 respectively. Enrolment has increased from 10,693,349 to 11,641,341 from 2021 to 2035. The study revealed that ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the best fitted model to forecast Tanzania government primary school enrolments and can be used to support planning process in Tanzania government primary schools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024