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We analyzed the impact of minor Arctic sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event of 2017 on the ionospheric F2 region, using Digisonde data from a low-mid latitude Indian station, Delhi (28.6°N, 77.2°E, 19.2°N geomagnetic latitude, 42.4°N dip). Our study revealed significant ionospheric changes, with electron densities exhibiting variations of more than 200% during this warming event. To further investigate, we examined the deviation in critical frequency ΔfoF2 from median values in the first six months of 2017 and found that the F2 layer critical frequency experiences maximum and minimum variations during the SSW period. Additionally, we observed periodicities of 7, 11, 14 and 30 days in characteristic F2 layer frequency during this event.

The present paper implements new approaches introduced in regard to pre-earthquake geo-chemical activity that results in lithosphere-atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC). Specifically, stratospheric temperature anomaly as a result of precursory atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) activity in the stratosphere is studied. A new technique is developed based on the parameters a) daily average temperature ( T mean ), b) daily maximum temperature ( T max ), c) T mean averaged over altitude, d) T max averaged over altitude. The new approach is applied to six earthquakes of Iran as well as Tohoku earthquake. Detected Anomalies are analyzed and discussed. Possible new variations such as stratospheric cooling as a result of active geomagnetic conditions are determined. Geographical maps and spatial distribution of temperature anomalies are presented to comprehend the possible source of variation. Moreover, space-based ULF emission observed by an in situ electric field detector (EFD) on board of China Seismic-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES) is presented as associated with 3 earthquakes that occurred in 2019. Detailed analysis of satellite overpass proximity to the earthquake epicenter, earthquake magnitude, and dates are examined and ULF anomalies associated with 3 magnetic field components are discussed. Finally, a systematic approach to be implemented using the new techniques in real time is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher‐order residual ionospheric errors in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) data can induce a systematic residual ionospheric bias (RIB) in RO bending angles, which can impact stratospheric climate monitoring. The main RIB causes are the ray path splitting of dual‐frequency GNSS signals, the electron density distribution along the ray path and at the RO receiver location, and the geomagnetic field. In this study, we investigate the ionospheric and geomagnetic effects on RO‐retrieved stratospheric bending angle and temperature profiles by inspecting the kappa and bi‐local RIB correction methods, the current state‐of‐the‐art methods, using multiple RO satellite mission data in different ionospheric and geomagnetic conditions. We find that, globally, the layer mean/median RIBs of the kappa and bi‐local correction methods exhibit similar behaviors for different RO missions: the estimated bending angle RIBs reach about −0.025/−0.01 and −0.024/−0.008 μrad in the upper (40–45 km) and lower (30–35 km) stratosphere, respectively, while the temperature RIBs reach about −1.0/−0.3 and −0.2/−0.1 K in these layers. However, in the equatorial day time region, the RIB statistics of the mission results diverge. Both the kappa and bi‐local RIBs increase in magnitude with increasing ionization and geomagnetic field strength but show no increase with an increasing degree of ionospheric asymmetry. Overall, the more refined bi‐local method has higher capacity than the comparatively simple kappa method to represent the variability of the ionospheric and geomagnetic conditions that affect RO events. This is important for regional‐scale studies, where the geomagnetic term can be of key relevance. Key Points: Ionospheric, geomagnetic and orbit‐height effects play a role for ionospheric errors in radio occultation bending angle and temperatureResidual ionospheric biases (RIBs) in bending angle and temperature were modeled for these effects using the kappa and bi‐local methodsThe kappa and bi‐local methods show larger RIBs for higher ionization and geomagnetic activity and clear deviations in equatorial daytime [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, observational and re‐analysis studies have outlined potentially enhanced influence of Energetic Particle Precipitation (EPP) either at times preceding Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) or when the distribution of planetary wave activity is suitable. In addition, significant correlations have been found between EPP and the occurrence rate of SSWs when the phases of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) are taken into account. Here we study the influence of EPP during disturbed stratospheric polar vortex conditions using chemistry‐climate model SOCOL‐MPIOM3 over the 20th century. When classifying disturbed conditions, the definition of minor SSWs are utilized along with a temperature gradient (day‐to‐day variations) criteria at 90°N and 10 hPa acting as a measure of the strength of the events. We find no influence of EPP on the occurrence rate of disturbed conditions over the last 100 year period. However, conditions preceding and during the disturbances are significantly different when EPP forcing is included into the model. This is especially true for stratospheric disturbances occurring in February. Furthermore, there is a clear tendency that the EPP effect becomes more notable after the 1950s. Our results imply that EPP forcing could be important for the stratospheric conditions during winter and that pre‐conditioning forced by atmospheric disturbances are an important factor when considering how the mechanism operates. Plain Language Summary: Energetic particles precipitating into the atmosphere is known to produce nitric (NOx) and hydrogen (HOx) oxides. These molecules are known to be associated with ozone (O3) loss, which is further shown to impact the temperature and weather patterns of the middle atmosphere. Recently, studies have shown that this impact could potentially be largest during winter time when the polar vortex experiences disturbed and unstable conditions. To study the impact of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) during these conditions, we use model data from the chemistry‐climate model SOCOL‐MPIOM3 over the period 1900–2008. In the model runs, we have 10 experiment ensembles which include ionization rates from historical records of EPP, and eight reference ensembles excluding these ionization rates. Our results show no relationship between EPP and the rate of occurrence of disturbed polar vortex conditions. However, conditions preceding and during disturbed times are significantly different when EPP ionization rates are included. Also, the results show that this effect only becomes noticeable after the 1950s, indicating that this mechanism might become even more important in the future. Key Points: We investigate links between Energetic Particle Precipitation and atmospheric dynamics during times of disturbed stratospheric polar vortexBy usage of model data, significant temperature anomalies are observed in the middle stratosphere, consistent with observational studiesA disturbed polar vortex (enhanced planetary wave activity), favor stratospheric temperature impact by Energetic Particle Precipitation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1967, scientists used a simple climate model to predict that human-caused increases in atmospheric CO2 should warm Earth’s troposphere and cool the stratosphere. This important signature of anthropogenic climate change has been documented in weather balloon and satellite temperature measurements extending from near-surface to the lower stratosphere. Stratospheric cooling has also been confirmed in the mid to upper stratosphere, a layer extending from roughly 25 to 50 km above the Earth’s surface (S25−50). To date, however, S25−50 temperatures have not been used in patternbased attribution studies of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we perform such a “fingerprint” study with satellite-derived patterns of temperature change that extend from the lower troposphere to the upper stratosphere. Including S25−50 information increases signal-to-noise ratios by a factor of five, markedly enhancing fingerprint detectability. Key features of this global-scale human fingerprint include stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming at all latitudes, with stratospheric cooling amplifying with height. In contrast, the dominant modes of internal variability in S25−50 have smaller-scale temperature changes and lack uniform sign. These pronounced spatial differences between S25−50 signal and noise patterns are accompanied by large cooling of S25−50 (1 to 2 ◦C over 1986 to 2022) and low S25−50 noise levels. Our results explain why extending “vertical fingerprinting” to the mid to upper stratosphere yields incontrovertible evidence of human effects on the thermal structure of Earth’s atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate stratospheric temperature observations are crucial for weather forecasts and climate change studies. This paper discusses a precise measurement method for the stratospheric temperature profile using narrow bands with ultra-high spectral resolution from nadir-viewing satellites. First, the CO2 absorption band around 15 μm is selected as the major sounding source by the calculation and analysis of the temperature Jacobian and the atmospheric molecular spectra. Next, the influence of spectral resolution, spectral range and instrumental noise on the sounding capability is analyzed, and the sounding feasibility of the single spectral band and multiple spectral bands is discussed under the condition that the spaceborne long-wave infrared space heterodyne spectrometer (SHS) is selected as suggested sounder onboard the satellite. Finally, the optimal joint-sounding scheme of narrow bands is proposed. The temperature retrieval and validation show that the joint-sounding of two discontinuous narrow bands can realize the high precision measurement of the stratospheric temperature profile for the given spectral resolution, spectral range, and instrumental noise. When the sounder adopts two narrow bands (the regions of 666.87–676.44 cm−1 and 683.58–693.15 cm−1) and a spectral resolution of 0.03 cm−1, the retrieval accuracy (RMSE) is about 0.9 K over a pressure range of 200 to 0.7 hPa (11.5–50 km). This study will provide technical preparation for high-precision and low-cost satellite sounder design for stratospheric temperature observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The acquisition of accurate stratospheric temperature data is of great significance for the research on global climate system and numerical weather forecasting. To obtain high‐precision stratospheric temperature, the three‐dimensional variational assimilation method, combined with kriging interpolation, was applied for data fusion of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics, and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (TIMED/SABER) temperature data and the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) radio occultation temperature data. As a sample, the two data sets of TIMED/SABER and COSMIC, during the time range from 5 December 2009, 09:00 to 5 December 2009, 15:00, were used to construct global stratospheric temperature field of 5 December 2009, 12:00. The cross‐validation results showed that temperature distribution from the variational fusion method was consistent with COSMIC observations at the height range of 15–35 km, which the mean deviations and standard deviations were within a range of −1 to 1 and 3 to 4 K, respectively. At the height range from 35 to 40 km, the temperature distribution from the variational fusion method was more consistent with TIMED/SABER observations. The mean deviations were within 0 and 0.5 K, and the standard deviations were between 1.8 and 2 K. Overall, the temperature field after variational fusion combines the high‐precision advantage of SABER observations around 40 km and the high‐precision advantage of COSMIC observations at the height range of 15–30 km, the effect of the variational fusion method is significant. Key Points: The three‐dimensional variational assimilation method was applied for the data fusion of Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics, and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry data and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate data in stratosphereThe mean deviations and the standard deviations between the variational fusion data and observations were small in stratosphereThe effect of the variational fusion method was significant [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric temperature changes are very important for climate systems through atmospheric circulation and stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The relationship between solar modulation potential SMP as a measure of solar activity and variation of temperature in upper, middle and lower stratosphere over Iraq for the period 1948-2014 (for about five solar cycles) has been presented in this study. For upper, middle and lower stratosphere we found that stratospheric temperatures decreased, this descending trend is offset by obviously descending trend in solar activity for the same period. The correlation coefficients between annual solar modulation potential SMP and stratospheric temperature have been examined at pressure levels (10,20,30,50,70 mb) that represent the upper, middle and lower stratosphere over 67 years (1948 to 2014). All levels have positive correlation. The correlation coefficient (R) in upper stratosphere at level 10 mb has been 0.4, in middle stratosphere at level (20, 30 mb) the correlation coefficient (R) has been 5.3 and 0.6 respectively. For lower stratosphere at level (50, 70 mb) R has been 0.57 and 0.68 respectively.

Associated with the recovery of stratospheric ozone, stratospheric cooling has decelerated since the late 1990s. This study investigates the contribution of ozone changes to the long-term stratospheric temperature trends in recent decades using satellite observations and model simulations. Observational analysis shows that total column ozone experienced little depletion in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and weak recovery in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in the period 1998–2020. It is found that the cease of stratospheric ozone depletion has reduced the stratospheric cooling from 1998 onwards, especially in the summer hemisphere. The correlation analysis indicates that the lower-stratospheric temperature is primarily regulated by ozone changes. The ozone recovery in the SH is associated with the weak warming in the lower stratosphere in the period 1998–2020 in summer. The impact of ozone changes is further isolated in the ozone-only experiments from CMIP6. We find that ozone depletion results in significant cooling in the summer hemisphere in the period 1979–1997, especially in the upper and lower stratosphere, while ozone recovery leads to significant warming in the summer hemisphere in the period 1998–2020 in the upper stratosphere. Our results also suggest that the wave-mean flow interactions associated with stratospheric ozone variations may play an important role in regulating the strength of polar vortex in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 16-year global climatology of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) for the period 2006–2021 is produced, using satellite data products from the CALIOP lidar. The original Level 2 data (at 5 km horizontal and 180 m vertical resolution, from 8.5 to 30 km) were re-gridded at 1° × 1° latitude-longitude, for 121 vertical layers, on a monthly basis. From the obtained statistics the areal coverage and fractional cloud cover of PSCs were estimated. According to our analysis, PSCs are found in altitudes ranging from 13 to 25 km above the Earth’s surface, with the maximum frequency between 18 and 22 km, peaking in July in the Southern Hemisphere, and mostly in January in the Northern. Results show that the areal extent of PSCs, at the altitude of maximum frequency of occurrence, has increased over the NH from 2006 to 2021, and decreased over the SH, but these trends are not statistically significant. Stratospheric temperatures seem to follow a similar temporal and spatial pattern as that of PSCs.

Accurate stratospheric temperature observations are crucial for weather forecasts and climate change studies. This paper discusses a precise measurement method for the stratospheric temperature profile using narrow bands with ultra-high spectral resolution from nadir-viewing satellites. First, the CO2 absorption band around 15 μm is selected as the major sounding source by the calculation and analysis of the temperature Jacobian and the atmospheric molecular spectra. Next, the influence of spectral resolution, spectral range and instrumental noise on the sounding capability is analyzed, and the sounding feasibility of the single spectral band and multiple spectral bands is discussed under the condition that the spaceborne long-wave infrared space heterodyne spectrometer (SHS) is selected as suggested sounder onboard the satellite. Finally, the optimal joint-sounding scheme of narrow bands is proposed. The temperature retrieval and validation show that the joint-sounding of two discontinuous narrow bands can realize the high precision measurement of the stratospheric temperature profile for the given spectral resolution, spectral range, and instrumental noise. When the sounder adopts two narrow bands (the regions of 666.87–676.44 cm−1 and 683.58–693.15 cm−1) and a spectral resolution of 0.03 cm−1, the retrieval accuracy (RMSE) is about 0.9 K over a pressure range of 200 to 0.7 hPa (11.5–50 km). This study will provide technical preparation for high-precision and low-cost satellite sounder design for stratospheric temperature observations.

This study suggests a stochastic model for time series of daily zonal (circumpolar) mean stratospheric temperature at a given pressure level. It can be seen as an extension of previous studies which have developed stochastic models for surface temperatures. The proposed model is a combination of a deterministic seasonality function and a Lévy-driven multidimensional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, which is a mean-reverting stochastic process. More specifically, the deseasonalized temperature model is an order 4 continuous-time autoregressive model, meaning that the stratospheric temperature is modeled to be directly dependent on the temperature over four preceding days, while the model's longer-range memory stems from its recursive nature. This study is based on temperature data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis model product. The residuals of the autoregressive model are well represented by normal inverse Gaussian-distributed random variables scaled with a time-dependent volatility function. A monthly variability in speed of mean reversion of stratospheric temperature is found, hence suggesting a generalization of the fourth-order continuous-time autoregressive model. A stochastic stratospheric temperature model, as proposed in this paper, can be used in geophysical analyses to improve the understanding of stratospheric dynamics. In particular, such characterizations of stratospheric temperature may be a step towards greater insight in modeling and prediction of large-scale middle atmospheric events, such as sudden stratospheric warming. Through stratosphere–troposphere coupling, the stratosphere is hence a source of extended tropospheric predictability at weekly to monthly timescales, which is of great importance in several societal and industry sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Associated with the recovery of stratospheric ozone, stratospheric cooling has decelerated since the late 1990s. This study investigates the contribution of ozone changes to the long-term stratospheric temperature trends in recent decades using satellite observations and model simulations. Observational analysis shows that total column ozone experienced little depletion in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and weak recovery in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in the period 1998–2020. It is found that the cease of stratospheric ozone depletion has reduced the stratospheric cooling from 1998 onwards, especially in the summer hemisphere. The correlation analysis indicates that the lower-stratospheric temperature is primarily regulated by ozone changes. The ozone recovery in the SH is associated with the weak warming in the lower stratosphere in the period 1998–2020 in summer. The impact of ozone changes is further isolated in the ozone-only experiments from CMIP6. We find that ozone depletion results in significant cooling in the summer hemisphere in the period 1979–1997, especially in the upper and lower stratosphere, while ozone recovery leads to significant warming in the summer hemisphere in the period 1998–2020 in the upper stratosphere. Our results also suggest that the wave-mean flow interactions associated with stratospheric ozone variations may play an important role in regulating the strength of polar vortex in winter.

Data on the effect of global warming on the ozone layer and the intensity of near-surface near-noon UVB radiation in 2100 compared to the year 2000 are presented. Changes in the ozone layer are calculated at a latitude of 50° N for January and June of 2100 when compared with 2000 using the one-dimensional photochemical model, as well as the SOCRATES interactive two-dimensional photochemical model, using greenhouse gas concentrations given in the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) RCP 4.5 and PCP 6.0. Surface UVB radiation fluxes for the above conditions are calculated using a program developed at the Norwegian Institute for Atmospheric Research in 2005 (by Ola Engelsen). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The standard, strong‐constraint formulation of 4D‐Var is designed to correct for random, zero‐mean errors from the model forecast and the observations. However, significant systematic errors are generated by the forecast models used in global numerical weather prediction (NWP), and the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) model of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is no exception. To deal with this type of error, a modification of the standard 4D‐Var algorithm, weak‐constraint 4D‐Var, has long been proposed and was implemented in operations at ECMWF in 2009. In the original implementation, the model error corrections were only active in the upper stratosphere, as a full application of the algorithm would lead to unacceptable degradation of forecast scores. Thus the impact of weak‐constraint 4D‐Var on ECMWF analyses and forecasts has always been small heretofore. In a companion article, it was shown through theoretical considerations and experiments with a simplified model that weak‐constraint 4D‐Var can correct accurately for model errors and initial‐state errors only when background and model errors have different spatial scales and when the observing system has a component, sufficient in number, that is unbiased and spatially homogeneous. This article presents new diagnostics based on radio occultation (RO) temperature retrievals and shows how those assumptions are verified in the IFS model. A new model‐error covariance matrix is derived and reduces the analysis and first‐guess temperature bias in the stratosphere by up to 50%. We also present how the model error tendencies diagnosed by weak‐constraint 4D‐Var can be used to reduce mean errors in medium‐range forecasts and discuss how they can also be applied in a reanalysis context to improve the fidelity and continuity of climate reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small volcanic eruptions and their effects have recently come into research focus. While large eruptions are known to strongly affect stratospheric temperature, the impacts of smaller eruptions are hard to quantify because their signals are masked by natural variability. Here, we quantify the temperature signals from small volcanic eruptions between 2002 and 2016 using new vertically resolved aerosol data and precise temperature observations from radio occultation. We find characteristic space‐time signals that can be associated with specific eruptions. In the lower stratosphere, robust warming signals are observed, while in the midstratosphere also cooling signals of some eruptions appear. We find that the volcanic contribution to the temperature trend is up to 20%, depending on latitude and altitude. We conclude that detailed knowledge of the vertical structure of volcanic temperature impacts is crucial for comprehensive trend analysis in order to separate natural from anthropogenic temperature changes. Key Points: The imprints of minor volcanic eruptions on stratospheric temperature are precisely quantifiedVertically high resolved aerosol and temperature observations facilitate the accurate detection of volcanic signals in space and timeMinor volcanic eruptions clearly affect the short‐term temperature trend in the lower stratosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The global warming simulations of the general circulation models (GCMs) are generally performed with different ozone prescriptions. We find that the differences in ozone distribution, especially in the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric (UTLS) region, account for important model discrepancies shown in the ozone‐only historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These discrepancies include global high cloud fraction, stratospheric temperature, and stratospheric water vapor. Through a set of experiments conducted by an atmospheric GCM with contrasting UTLS ozone prescriptions, we verify that UTLS ozone not only directly radiatively heats the UTLS region and cools the upper parts of the stratosphere but also strongly influences the high clouds due to its impact on relative humidity and static stability in the UTLS region and the stratospheric water vapor due to its impact on the tropical tropopause temperature. These consequences strongly affect the global mean effective radiative forcing of ozone, as noted in previous studies. Our findings suggest that special attention should be paid to the UTLS ozone when evaluating the climate effects of ozone depletion in the 20th century and recovery in the 21st century. UTLS ozone difference may also be important for understanding the intermodel discrepancy in the climate projections of the CMIP6 GCMs in which either prescribed or interactive ozone is used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of high-energy particle precipitation on mesospheric and stratospheric ozone have been investigated during the last decades. However, while these effects have been widely discussed for the auroral region, little is known about the role of the high-energy particle precipitation on the stratospheric composition and thermal structure in the tropical/subtropical region. Here we show that the spatial distribution of both the stratospheric ozone and temperature in the southern hemisphere matches the pattern of the Southern Hemisphere Magnetic Anomaly. We found that during the austral winter and spring, in the subtropical region (below 30°S), the reduction of the stratospheric ozone and temperature occurs systematically in the magnetic anomaly area. The differences between the temperatures inside the magnetic anomaly (60°W) and outside the anomaly (150°E) for 42.5°S from June to November are higher than 2 K. The maximum difference at this latitude is approximately 5.9 K and occurs in October during the austral spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A search for a relationship between tropical stratosphere temperature anomalies at 10 hPa (~30 km), during 1964-1996 and the F10.7 cm solar flux has been carried out. The long-term trend and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation influence over four seasonal and the annual temperature series were removed. The linear correlation coefficients, r, between temperature and F10.7 for the five series fall between 0.02 and 0.31, which suggests that the association between temperature and solar cycle is weak. However, when the data of each series are grouped according to solar cycle, temperature as a function of F10.7 shows a non-random behavior similar to a hysteresis loop. The sense of rotation, axis and area of a hysteresis loop are different for each solar cycle. The time shift between temperature and solar flux increases from cycle 20 to 22. The correlation between temperature and F10.7 becomes progressively lower from cycle 20 to 22. This suggests that the stratospheric temperature is determined not only by the solar flux, but also by parameters such as ozone and CO2, and feedback mechanisms between them.

The present paper shows results from the summer campaign performed during geomagnetically quiet period from June 1 to August 31, 2009. Within time-series of stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures at pressure levels 10–0.1 hPa, mesospheric winds measured in Collm, Germany, and the sporadic E-layer parameters foEs and hEs measured at the Pruhonice station we detected specific coherent wave-bursts in planetary wave domain. Permanent wave-like activity is observed in all analyzed data sets. However, the number of wave-like structures persistent in large range of height from the stratosphere to lower ionosphere is limited. The only coherent modes that are detected on consequent levels of the atmosphere are those corresponding to eigenmodes of planetary waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a simple linear regression model that enables to quantify the contribution of high-latitude stratospheric temperature and solar radiation (describes by its proxy F10.7) to the variability of the low-latitude TEC during winter. The model is based on cross-correlation analysis performed on the Aura MLS temperature measurements and the global CODE TEC data for the period of time 2005–2010, i.e. at low to moderate solar activity (F10.7 changes between ~65 and ~140 solar flux units). It revealed that the temperature at altitude of ~40 km and latitude of ~60°N describes the most typical winter conditions and shows the largest negative correlation with the low-latitude TEC. This temperature namely is included in the regression model. The model results have been compared with the TEC data by calculating the standard deviation (STD). The comparison indicated that the regression model describes almost half of the real variability of the global TEC and that the contribution of the temperature (that is only a part of forcing from below) is almost half of the solar variability (i.e. external forcing related to the photo-ionization). A possible mechanism for explaining the relationship between the high-latitude stratospheric increase of the temperature and low-latitude decrease of the TEC is suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature (SST). The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex. In the model runs, global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere, while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere. The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere. Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves, the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes. Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), but the gradient increases of SST between 60°S and 60°N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling, with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Possible relationships between tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and atmospheric oscillations, solar and geomagnetic activity are described, using correlation analysis. The dependence of correlations on season, solar activity level and phase of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is also investigated. An important finding is that the variability of the hemispheric tropospheric temperature is well connected to the Scandinavian Pattern, to the Pacific North American teleconnection and less with the North Atlantic Oscillation. There is also a possible link with the Southern Oscillation (SO) for winter. Solar UV and cosmic ray flux might influence tropospheric temperature during warm seasons, solar maximum or QBO West. Significant correlations between the Northern stratospheric temperature and the SO is observed especially during the Eastern phase of QBO and solar minimum. Signatures of geomagnetic variability are seen in the winter stratospheric temperature. The stratospheric temperature correlates with the cosmic ray flux and solar UV at annual level at solar maximum and QBO West. The UV effect at the stratospheric level is less clear than expected. The existence of some correlations between tropospheric/stratospheric temperatures and internal and external parameters under certain climatic circumstances and during different solar cycle phases might help in identifying processes that transfer energy from the Sun to different atmospheric layers and in assessing their role in climate variability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We have used a fully coupled chemistry-climate model (WACCM) to investigate the relative importance of the direct and indirect effects of 11a solar variations on stratospheric temperature and ozone. Although the model does not contain a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and uses fixed sea surface temperature (SST), it is able to produce a second maximum solar response in tropical lower stratospheric (TLS) temperature and ozone of approximately 0.5 K and 3%, respectively. In the TLS, the solar spectral variations in the chemistry scheme play a more important role than solar spectral variations in the radiation scheme in generating temperature and ozone responses. The chemistry effect of solar variations causes significant changes in the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation resulting in ozone anomalies in the TLS. The model simulations also show a negative feedback in the upper stratosphere between the temperature and ozone responses. A wavelet analysis of the modeled ozone and temperature time series reveals that the maximum solar responses in ozone and temperature caused by both chemical and radiative effects occur at different altitudes in the upper stratosphere. The analysis also confirms that both the direct radiative and indirect ozone feedback effects are important in generating a solar response in the upper stratospheric temperatures, although the solar spectral variations in the chemistry scheme give the largest solar cycle power in the upper stratospheric temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]