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3 results on '"ssps 585"'

1. Possible Changes of Pinus nigra Distribution Regions in Türkiye with the Impacts of Global Climate Change

Author

Ugur Canturk, İsmail Koç, Halil Barış Özel, and Hakan Şevik

Subjects
black pine, continental climate, modelling, shinybiomod, ssps 245, ssps 585, Biotechnology, TP248.13-248.65
Abstract

Global climate change poses significant threats to ecosystems worldwide, particularly impacting long-lived forest tree species such as Pinus nigra. This study assessed the potential shifts in distribution areas for Pinus nigra, an important tree species, one highly vulnerable to global climate change, given its prevalence in continental climates, in Türkiye under different climate scenarios (SSPs 585 and 245). In this study, suitable distribution regions of Pinus nigra were evaluated based on SSPs 585 and SSPs 245 using nine different models. Results indicated potential losses in Pinus nigra distribution areas ranging from 15.0% to 43.5% (SSPs 245) and 19.7% to 48.9% (SSPs 585) by 2100. However, in 2100, new suitable distribution areas are expected to be formed at rates ranging from 13.8% to 32.1% and 15.1% to 34.4% according to the above scenarios. Because most of the newly formed suitable distribution regions are quite far from the areas where the species currently spreads, it seems necessary to provide the migration mechanism needed by the species by humans to prevent population losses in this process.

Published
2024

2. Possible Changes of Pinus nigra Distribution Regions in Türkiye with the Impacts of Global Climate Change.

Author

Cantürk, Uğur, Koç, İsmail, Özel, Halil Barış, and Şevik, Hakan

Subjects
*AUSTRIAN pine, *CLIMATE change, *ATMOSPHERIC models, *SPECIES, *TREES
Abstract

Global climate change poses significant threats to ecosystems worldwide, particularly impacting long-lived forest tree species such as Pinus nigra. This study assessed the potential shifts in distribution areas for Pinus nigra, an important tree species, one highly vulnerable to global climate change, given its prevalence in continental climates, in Türkiye under different climate scenarios (SSPs 585 and 245). In this study, suitable distribution regions of Pinus nigra were evaluated based on SSPs 585 and SSPs 245 using nine different models. Results indicated potential losses in Pinus nigra distribution areas ranging from 15.0% to 43.5% (SSPs 245) and 19.7% to 48.9% (SSPs 585) by 2100. However, in 2100, new suitable distribution areas are expected to be formed at rates ranging from 13.8% to 32.1% and 15.1% to 34.4% according to the above scenarios. Because most of the newly formed suitable distribution regions are quite far from the areas where the species currently spreads, it seems necessary to provide the migration mechanism needed by the species by humans to prevent population losses in this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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3. Küresel İklim Değişikliği Senaryoları ile Samsun İlinde Yakın Gelecekteki Biyokonfor Bölgelerinin Belirlenmesi

Author

KOÇ, İsmail

Subjects
Fen, Biyokonfor, CMIP6, SSPs 245, SSPs 585, Science, Biocomfort
Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı: Bu çalışmada, Eşleştirilmiş Model Karşılaştırılma Projesinin iklim değişikliği senaryoları kapsamında (SSPs 245 ve SSPs 585) çalışma alanının mevcut durum ve gelecekteki (günümüz, 2040, 2060, 2080) iklim değişikliklerinin belirlemesi amaçlamıştır.Çalışmanın alanı: Çalışmaya konu alan Samsun ilidir.Materyal ve yöntem: Güncel iklim verileri Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü'ne bağlı 24 meteoroloji istasyonu tarafından yapılan ölçümlerden elde edilmiştir. Bu verilerden elde edilen 2000-2020 dönemine ait ölçüm verileri kullanılarak, bu çalışma için “Ters Mesafe Ağırlıklı” yöntemi ile iklim haritaları hazırlanmıştır. Bu haritalara biyokonfor indeks formülleri uygulanarak biyokonfor haritaları elde edilmiştir. Temel sonuçlar: Bölgede günümüzde ortalama en düşük ve en yüksek sıcaklıklar yaklaşık olarak 7-24 °C arasında değişmektedir. İki senaryoya göre 2040 yılından 2080 yılına kadar sıcaklı 13-19 °C arasında değişecek ve daha sonra ilk senaryoya göre sabit kalırken ikinci senaryoya göre 2080-2100 arasında 19-25 °C’ye çıkacaktır. Sonuç olarak, bölge çok daha sıcak olacak ve 2100'de Samsun'da sıcak bölgeler olabilir. Araştırma vurguları: Samsun ilindeki biyokonfor bölgeleri, özellikle soğutma maliyetleri başta olmak üzere, yakında önemli ölçüde değişecek ve iklimlendirme sistemlerinin kullandığı gazlar ve enerji tüketimi nedeniyle küresel iklim değişikliğine olumsuz katkıda bulunacaktır., Aim of study: This study aimed to determine the current and future (present, 2040, 2060, 2080) climate changes in the study area within the scope of climate change scenarios (SSPs 245 and SSPs 585) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.Area of study: The study area is Samsun province. Material and methods: The current climate data were obtained from the measurements performed by 24 meteorology stations. Using the measurement data of the period 2000-2020 obtained from these data, the climate maps were prepared with the “Inverse Distance Weighted” method were used for this study. The biocomfort index formulas were applied to these maps, and biocomfort maps were obtained. Main results: Today’s average minimum and maximum temperature changes around 7-24 °C in the area. According to the two scenarios, the temperature will change between 13-19 °C from 2040 to 2080 and then stay constant in the first scenario while it will increase up to 19-25 °C in the second scenario during 2080-2100. As a result, the area will have much warmer, and there might be warm zones in Samsun in 2100.Highlights: The biocomfort zones in Samsun province would remarkably change soon, especially the cooling costs, and will negatively contribute to global climate change due to energy consumption and gases used by air-conditioning systems.

Published
2022

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