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Spreading processes on networks (graphs) have become ubiquitous in modern society with prominent examples such as infections, rumors, excitations, contaminations, or disturbances. Finding the source of such processes based on observations is important and difficult. We abstract the problem mathematically as an optimization problem on graphs. For the deterministic setting we make connections to the metric dimension of a graph and introduce the concept of spread resolving sets. For the stochastic setting we propose a new algorithm combining parameter estimation and experimental design. We discuss well-posedness of the algorithm and show encouraging numerical results on a benchmark library. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A minequake of magnitude ML 4.1 occurred on 18 May 2020 early in the morning at the LKAB underground iron ore mine in Kiruna, Sweden. This is the largest mining‐induced earthquake in Scandinavia. It generated acoustic signals observed at three infrasound arrays at 9.3 (KRIS, Sweden), 155 (IS37, Norway), and 286 km (ARCI, Norway) distance. We perform full‐waveform focal mechanism inversion based on regional seismic data and local infrasound data. These independently highlight that this event was dominated by a shallow‐depth collapse in agreement with in‐mine seismic station data. However, regional infrasound data cannot inform the inversion process without an accurate model of atmospheric winds and temperatures. Yet, our numerical simulations demonstrate a potential of using local and regional infrasound data to constrain an event's focal mechanism and depth. Plain Language Summary: The largest mining‐induced earthquake in Scandinavia (ML 4.1) occurred on 18 May 2020 early in the morning at the LKAB underground iron ore mine in Kiruna, Sweden. The seismic waves coupled to the atmosphere and propagated large distances as sound waves which were observed at three infrasound arrays at 9.3 (KRIS, Sweden), 155 (IS37, Norway), and 286 km (ARCI, Norway) distance. Our seismic and acoustic modeling results highlight a strong collapse event within the northern section of the mine. The modeling of acoustic and seismic waves across the Earth‐atmosphere suggests that sound wave data can help when determining the location and properties of a seismic source. Key Points: Seismic and acoustic records indicate a strong collapse at shallow depth of 1 ± 0.5 km for the 2020 Kiruna minequakeFocal mechanisms and depths of shallow seismic sources can be retrieved from local infrasound recordsInversions using regional infrasound data is possible when accurate weather models are available [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To accurately determine the leakage source location and strength during gas leakage accidents, this study compares the concentration obtained from the diffusion model with that measured by the sensor and proposes an improved gray wolf optimization algorithm for leakage source location. This algorithm introduces two improvement strategies. First, a nonlinear convergence factor is introduced to balance the global and local searches of the algorithm. Second, a reverse learning operation is performed on the three individuals with the worst fitness in the contemporary population. The results showed that the location results based on the improved gray wolf optimization algorithm exhibited high accuracy and stability, could quickly and accurately locate the leakage source, and provided data support for emergency disposal of accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we collected mobile gravity observations in the middle segment of the North Tianshan Mountains from August 2016 to July 2022 and carried out classical adjustment calculations under the constraint of the absolute gravity datum to obtain the spatiotemporal variation pattern of the local gravity field. We used equivalent source inversion to obtain the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of crustal apparent density. We also extracted the coseismic deformation field from SAR data, using the 2016 Hutubi earthquake as an example, and constructed a model of the seismogenic fault. The gravity monitoring network in the study area performed well in resolving the earthquake source parameters. Both the time-varying gravity field and equivalent apparent density variation pattern show prominent zoning characteristics with a smoothly evolving spatial distribution over time. The variation trends of the gravity field and equivalent apparent density are in line with the orientation of tectonic structures, and their anomalous signals can be detected before and after an earthquake. The constructed seismogenic structure of the 2016 Hutubi earthquake indicates a typical thrust earthquake, probably occurring on a north-dipping blind fault beneath a region with intense crustal deformation. The subsurface tectonic system reflected by this earthquake can be informatively extended to the entire middle segment of the North Tianshan Mountains by subsurface configuration. Our findings can serve as a reference for analyzing the source characteristics of the time-varying gravity field and interpreting anomalous pre-seismic signals, and aid in understanding earthquake preparation zones and the mode of crustal tectonic movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract A minequake of magnitude ML 4.1 occurred on 18 May 2020 early in the morning at the LKAB underground iron ore mine in Kiruna, Sweden. This is the largest mining‐induced earthquake in Scandinavia. It generated acoustic signals observed at three infrasound arrays at 9.3 (KRIS, Sweden), 155 (IS37, Norway), and 286 km (ARCI, Norway) distance. We perform full‐waveform focal mechanism inversion based on regional seismic data and local infrasound data. These independently highlight that this event was dominated by a shallow‐depth collapse in agreement with in‐mine seismic station data. However, regional infrasound data cannot inform the inversion process without an accurate model of atmospheric winds and temperatures. Yet, our numerical simulations demonstrate a potential of using local and regional infrasound data to constrain an event's focal mechanism and depth.

On 11 May 2022, an earthquake of Mw 5.2 occurred in the Dharchula region of Uttarakhand Himalayas, India. The Uttarakhand State Earthquake Early Warning System (UEEWS) detected and transmitted the warning within 11.61 s from the origin time, taking only 4.26 s for processing, location, and magnitude estimation and warning dissemination. The complete analysis was performed using three seconds of waveforms. Using the initial earthquake parameters provided by the UEEWS, moment tensor inversion was performed using the broadband seismometers network installed in northern India. The moment tensor (MT) inversion was performed for the event using both the body waves and the surface waves. The first motion polarity was used along with waveform data to enhance the solution’s stability. This paper discusses the importance of real-time event detection and efforts towards real-time MT source inversion of earthquakes in the Uttarakhand Himalayas. Relocation of two past earthquakes near Dharchula is also undertaken in this study. The outcome of this study provides insights into mitigating seismic hazards, understanding earthquake source mechanisms, and enhancing knowledge of local fault structures.

The 14 April 1895 (Mw 6.1, in the area of Ljubljana, Slovenia) earthquake is still not fully understood. The aim of this work is to derive information about its source from the inversion of an updated dataset of intensities (evaluated with EMS-98). This was done via automatic non-linear geophysical inversion KF-NGA, which was performed using a Niching Genetic Algorithm and has been presented in other articles. The distribution of damage caused by this earthquake is not homogeneous and often shows significant intensity differences between neighbouring sites. Statistical analysis of the intensities, epicentral distances and geologic nature of the sites suggests some site effects. Nevertheless, the resulting solution is consistent with regional seismotectonics, i.e. an almost pure dip-slip mechanism: strike 282° ± 5°, dip 38° ± 7°, rake 86° ± 9° (± 180° because of the intrinsic ambiguity of the KF-NGA-inversion). Since the rake angle is close to 90°, there is an almost perfect ambiguity between the two planes of the focal mechanism. Therefore, our solution has a Dinaric direction and could be associated either with a fault plane that dips NE or with one that dips SW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 11 May 2022, an earthquake of Mw 5.2 occurred in the Dharchula region of Uttarakhand Himalayas, India. The Uttarakhand State Earthquake Early Warning System (UEEWS) detected and transmitted the warning within 11.61 s from the origin time, taking only 4.26 s for processing, location, and magnitude estimation and warning dissemination. The complete analysis was performed using three seconds of waveforms. Using the initial earthquake parameters provided by the UEEWS, moment tensor inversion was performed using the broadband seismometers network installed in northern India. The moment tensor (MT) inversion was performed for the event using both the body waves and the surface waves. The first motion polarity was used along with waveform data to enhance the solution's stability. This paper discusses the importance of real-time event detection and efforts towards real-time MT source inversion of earthquakes in the Uttarakhand Himalayas. Relocation of two past earthquakes near Dharchula is also undertaken in this study. The outcome of this study provides insights into mitigating seismic hazards, understanding earthquake source mechanisms, and enhancing knowledge of local fault structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neighborhood-scale air pollution hotspots have recently been identified through detailed field campaigns, including the 100x100 Black Carbon Experiment which took place in West Oakland, CA, in 2017. Here, high-resolution nested atmospheric simulations are used together with a Bayesian inversion framework to estimate source apportionment at the hyper-local scale for a neighborhood in West Oakland. Forward simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using 6 grid nests from 11.25 km to 2 m horizontal resolution. On the finest grid, building geometries are resolved using the immersed boundary method. Seven point sources and four line sources at known locations are included in the forward simulation for two 1-h periods during the 2017 field campaign. Data from 12 black carbon sensors are used to perform source inversion using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach, which provides a probability distribution for each of the 11 source strengths. From this, a most-likely plume can be created using the peaks of the distributions, and source apportionment can be estimated for each sensor. In addition, a composite plume can be constructed to indicate 90% confidence that concentrations are above or below a specified value. With this probabilistic analysis, it is possible to determine that more than half of the neighborhood has black carbon concentrations of higher than 0.4 μg/m3, with some areas higher than 3 μg/m3 during the time periods studied.

Abstract The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes caused severe damage centering on the Mashiki residential area. The velocity waveforms at station KMMH16 in Mashiki, during the M7.3 mainshock, show large pulses. We found that severe damage in Mashiki may be the result of the strong westward velocity pulse. The question raised is how the near-fault ground motions with strong velocity pulse at KMMH16 were generated during the mainshock. We focus on the characterized source model with Strong Motion Generation Areas (SMGA). Empirical Green’s function (EGF) method is widely used for source modeling in this case. However, in case that the target site is located just near the fault in nodal plane of source mechanism (like KMMH16), mechanism of the EGF event should perfectly fit mechanism of the mainshock, which is a rare case. Therefore, instead of using EGFs, we used theoretical 3D Green’s functions. Our approach is a nonlinear source inversion. This method requires calculation of waveforms and comparison with observations for many source models. To accelerate these calculations, we use pre-calculated GFs by the reciprocity method in the JIVSM velocity structure model. By comparison with aftershock records, we validated this structure for periods as short as 1.5 s. Target sites are limited to sites close to the fault: KMM005, KMM006, KMMH14, and KMMH16. First, we look for an initial SMGA source model by the grid search method applied to relatively long-period (> 3 s) waveforms and coarse grid of source parameters. Then, we tune that source model to fit observed short-period waveforms with the simplex search method. Necessary physical constraints for the range of the source parameters are applied here. The important point in our inversion scheme is to describe the Kostrov-like slip velocity functions inside each SMGAs by using two triangles. The resulting source model agrees well with other inversion results. We found that the observed westward pulse at KMMH16 is the result of the constructive interference of two pulses from SMGA1 and SMGA2, located in Hinagu fault and southwestern segment of Futagawa fault. Graphical Abstract

In this study, we collected mobile gravity observations in the middle segment of the North Tianshan Mountains from August 2016 to July 2022 and carried out classical adjustment calculations under the constraint of the absolute gravity datum to obtain the spatiotemporal variation pattern of the local gravity field. We used equivalent source inversion to obtain the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of crustal apparent density. We also extracted the coseismic deformation field from SAR data, using the 2016 Hutubi earthquake as an example, and constructed a model of the seismogenic fault. The gravity monitoring network in the study area performed well in resolving the earthquake source parameters. Both the time-varying gravity field and equivalent apparent density variation pattern show prominent zoning characteristics with a smoothly evolving spatial distribution over time. The variation trends of the gravity field and equivalent apparent density are in line with the orientation of tectonic structures, and their anomalous signals can be detected before and after an earthquake. The constructed seismogenic structure of the 2016 Hutubi earthquake indicates a typical thrust earthquake, probably occurring on a north-dipping blind fault beneath a region with intense crustal deformation. The subsurface tectonic system reflected by this earthquake can be informatively extended to the entire middle segment of the North Tianshan Mountains by subsurface configuration. Our findings can serve as a reference for analyzing the source characteristics of the time-varying gravity field and interpreting anomalous pre-seismic signals, and aid in understanding earthquake preparation zones and the mode of crustal tectonic movements.

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes caused severe damage centering on the Mashiki residential area. The velocity waveforms at station KMMH16 in Mashiki, during the M7.3 mainshock, show large pulses. We found that severe damage in Mashiki may be the result of the strong westward velocity pulse. The question raised is how the near-fault ground motions with strong velocity pulse at KMMH16 were generated during the mainshock. We focus on the characterized source model with Strong Motion Generation Areas (SMGA). Empirical Green's function (EGF) method is widely used for source modeling in this case. However, in case that the target site is located just near the fault in nodal plane of source mechanism (like KMMH16), mechanism of the EGF event should perfectly fit mechanism of the mainshock, which is a rare case. Therefore, instead of using EGFs, we used theoretical 3D Green's functions. Our approach is a nonlinear source inversion. This method requires calculation of waveforms and comparison with observations for many source models. To accelerate these calculations, we use pre-calculated GFs by the reciprocity method in the JIVSM velocity structure model. By comparison with aftershock records, we validated this structure for periods as short as 1.5 s. Target sites are limited to sites close to the fault: KMM005, KMM006, KMMH14, and KMMH16. First, we look for an initial SMGA source model by the grid search method applied to relatively long-period (> 3 s) waveforms and coarse grid of source parameters. Then, we tune that source model to fit observed short-period waveforms with the simplex search method. Necessary physical constraints for the range of the source parameters are applied here. The important point in our inversion scheme is to describe the Kostrov-like slip velocity functions inside each SMGAs by using two triangles. The resulting source model agrees well with other inversion results. We found that the observed westward pulse at KMMH16 is the result of the constructive interference of two pulses from SMGA1 and SMGA2, located in Hinagu fault and southwestern segment of Futagawa fault. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present probabilistic centroid‐moment tensor solutions inferred from the combination of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and a 3‐D full‐waveform inversion Earth model of the Japanese islands. While the former provides complete posterior probability densities, the latter allows us to exploit waveform data with periods as low as 15 s. For the computation of Green's functions, we employ spectral‐element simulations through the radially anisotropic and visco‐elastic model, leading to substantial improvements of data fit compared to layered models. Focusing on 13 Mw 4.8–Mw 5.3 offshore earthquakes with a significant non‐double‐couple (non‐DC) component, we simultaneously infer the centroid location, time and moment tensor without any a priori constraints on the faulting mechanism. Furthermore, we perform the inversions across several period bands, varying the minimum period between 15 and 50 s. Accounting for 3‐D Earth structure at shorter periods can increase the double‐couple (DC) component of an event, compared to the GCMT solution, by tens of percent. This suggests that non‐DC events in the GCMT catalog may result from unmodeled Earth structure and the related limitation to longer‐period data. We also observe that significant changes in source parameters, and the DC component in particular, may be related to only small waveform changes, thereby accentuating the importance of a reliable Earth model. Posterior probability density distributions become increasingly multimodal for shorter‐period data that provide tighter constraints on source parameters. This implies, in our specific case, that stochastic approaches to the source inversion problem are required for periods below ∼20 s to avoid trapping in local minima. Plain Language Summary: In the majority of global earthquake catalogs, the earthquake solution, that is, centroid location, time and a rupture mechanism, is typically inferred assuming a 1‐D Earth model. However, both earthquake source and Earth structure contribute to seismic recordings, meaning that unaccounted structure might map into and pollute the source solution. In this study we use a 3‐D Earth structure of the Japanese islands to model the waveforms and infer earthquake parameters of 13 small‐to‐moderate magnitude offshore events. We do not put any a priori constraints on the faulting mechanism and let it be determined by the data. We perform stochastic inversions, which provide us with a collection of all plausible models ranked by their respective probability. When a 3‐D Earth structure at shorter periods is taken into account, the earthquake mechanisms, investigated in this study, can be largely explained by a slip on the fault. We also observe that significant changes in source parameters may be related to tiny waveform changes, thereby accentuating the importance of a reliable Earth model. Key Points: Full‐waveform inversion models enable the use of shorter‐period data in earthquake source inversionUsing regional waveforms at 15 s period may reduce non‐double‐couple components by tens of percentProbability densities of source parameters below 20 s are non‐Gaussian, thus demanding stochastic inversion approaches [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric dispersion models are employed in forecasting the atmospheric transport of ash clouds following a volcanic eruption. Errors in input meteorological data can, however, lead to discrepancies between the modeled and observed ash cloud locations. Furthermore, meteorological errors can affect the performance of inversion techniques used to estimate ash emissions. This study explores using ensemble meteorological data sets to overcome issues with meteorological errors in a Bayesian inversion system, Inversion Technique for Emissions Modelling (InTEM) for volcanic ash. Two measures (the evidence value and a cost function) are obtained from the Bayesian framework, and each measure is used to select a "best" meteorological data set from within the ensemble. These two best meteorological data sets are constructed in an iterative manner which is ideally suited for operational use when ash cloud forecasts are updated at regular intervals. The method is applied to the 2011 eruption of the Icelandic volcano Grímsvötn and improvements to ash cloud forecasts using the best meteorological data sets assessed. In this case study, errors in the deterministic meteorological data are significant, resulting in a reduction of ash emissions estimated by InTEM for volcanic ash. We also illustrate how the best meteorological data sets lead to more accurate modeling of the ash cloud. Key Points: A best meteorological data set is selected from a Numerical Weather Prediction ensemble using a cost function or the evidence measureThe chosen meteorological data set leads to improvements in the accuracy of ash cloud modelingThe ensemble source inversion method for estimating past emissions is well suited for use within an operational system [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The self-potential (SP) method is a classical geophysical exploration method which has a wide application prospect in underground pollutant monitoring and other fields. However, due to the complexity of the formation mechanism and the lack of prior information, there are still quite a few difficulties in the precise quantitative inversion of the SP sources, and qualitative interpretation is frequently adopted in practical applications. In this work, we carry out inversion research on the SP data of geomicrobes to accurately invert and locate the spatial distribution of the SP sources which is closely relevant to microbial activities. The resistivity-based depth weighting matrix is added to the inversion algorithm to promote the migration of the SP sources from the earth surface to their original depth. And to conform to the actual distribution of the SP sources, the minimum support stabilizing function is introduced to impose additional compact constraint. Two synthetic models are firstly designed to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed algorithm. On this basis, the sandbox experiment that continuously observes and records the SP signals generated by the typical organism: Shiwanella Oneida MR-1 breaking down the organic matter is carried out. Then the observed data is inverted to locate the SP sources. The inversion results demonstrate that with the addition of Shiwanella Oneida MR-1 into the humus, the negative SP source immediately appear on the top of the humus, which increase sharply, then remain stable and then slowly decay over time. The negative SP sources are concentrated on the top of the humus, which is consistent with the theoretical analysis of the biogeobattery model. • The depth weighting matrix and the compact constraint are adopted to improve the accuracy of SP source inversion. • PCA is adopted to carry out uncertainty analysis of the inversion results. • A sandbox experiment is carried out to monitor the dynamic change of the SP anomalies caused by geomicrobes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We derived the joint slip models of the three major events in the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence by inverting strong-motion and InSAR datasets. b-values and the historic earthquake scarp offset were also investigated after processing the earthquake catalog and near-field digital elevation model data. The three major events gradually released seismic moments of 1.6 × 1018 Nm (Mw 6.1), 1.5 × 1018 Nm (Mw 6.1), and 1.1 × 1019 Nm (Mw 6.7), respectively. All the ruptures exhibit both updip and along-strike directivity, but differ in the along-strike propagation direction. The high b-value found beneath three mainshock hypocenters suggests possible fluid intrusions, explaining the cascading earthquake behavior. The cumulative surface scarp from past earthquakes shows rupturing features that are consistent with the 2016 earthquake sequence, suggesting a characteristic fault behavior. Under the assumption of the Gutenberg–Richter law, the slip budget closure test gives a maximum magnitude of Mw 6.7 and implies the seismic hazard from the largest event has been released in this sequence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kashmir earthquake of October 8, 2005, was the most devastating in the recent history of South Asia, causing more than 86,000 casualties, and was accompanied by numerous slope failures. Like many other earthquakes hitting the rugged mountainous terrains of developing countries, strong ground motion records of Kashmir earthquake were also deficient. In the absence of waveforms, source inversion analysis of the geodetic data is performed to reveal spatial distribution of slip on a 90 km × 30 km fault rupture plan with dip and strike angles of 29° and 320°, respectively. The largest asperity, having a maximum slip value of 7.5 m, has appeared at the same location where the large crustal deformation was detected. The slip distribution pattern near the ground surface is consistent with the crustal deformations. Also, seismic stresses are calculated for the epicentral areas for a stratified half-space through forward modeling. All the landslides triggered by Kashmir earthquake are spotted in the areas having high values of square root of the second principal invariant of deviatoric stress tensor ( J 2 ), witnessing a relationship between co-seismic stresses and earthquake-induced landslides. This study will be helpful to rationally understand earthquake-induced damages, their scientific basis, and to establish a cause-and-effect relation between the seismic activity and damaged pattern which can be helpful for rehabilitation, disaster management, and preparedness for future seismic disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a convection–diffusion inverse problem that aims to identify an unknown number of sources and their locations. We model the sources using a binary function, and we show that the inverse problem can be formulated as a large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem. We show empirically that current state-of-the-art mixed-integer solvers cannot solve this problem and that applying simple rounding heuristics to solutions of the relaxed problem can fail to identify the correct number and location of the sources. We develop two new rounding heuristics that exploit the value and a physical interpretation of the continuous relaxation solution, and we apply a steepest-descent improvement heuristic to obtain satisfactory solutions to both two- and three-dimensional inverse problems. We also provide the code used in our numerical experiments in open-source format. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since February 2019, NASA's InSight lander is recording seismic signals on the planet Mars, which, for the first time, allows to observe ongoing tectonic processes with geophysical methods. A number of Marsquakes have been located in the Cerberus Fossae graben system in Elysium Planitia and further west, in the Orcus Patera depression. We present a first study of the focal mechanisms of three well‐recorded events (S0173a, S0183a, S0235b) to determine the processes dominating in the source region. We infer for all three events a predominantly extensional setting. Our method is adapted to the case of a single, multicomponent receiver and based on fitting waveforms of P and S waves against synthetic seismograms computed for the initial crustal velocity model derived by the InSight team. We explore the uncertainty due to the single‐station limitation and find that even data recorded by one station constrains the mechanisms (reasonably) well. For the events in the Cerberus Fossae region (S0173a, S0235b) normal faulting with a relatively steep dipping fault plane is inferred, suggesting an extensional regime mainly oriented E‐W to NE‐SW. The fault regime in the Orcus Patera region is not determined uniquely because only the P wave can be used for the source inversion. However, we find that the P and weak S waves of the S0183a event show similar polarities to the event S0173, which indicates similar fault regimes. Plain Language Summary: As time passes, the mysterious interior of Mars is slowly being unraveled due to the detection and analysis of Marsquakes recorded with a seismograph carried by the InSight lander. Close to 400 Marsquakes have so far been identified, yet only a handful of those show similarities to earthquakes. Those earth‐like events are located near the Cerberus Fossae and Orcus Patera regions. We take advantage of the similarity between Marsquakes and earthquakes and apply a methodology developed for earthquake characterization before seismic recorders became abundant on Earth. We find that the Marsquakes in these source regions are dominated by extensional rather than compressing features. This is important information to further understand what causes Marsquakes. Key Points: We infer the tectonic setting in Cerberus Fossae on Mars by seismic source inversionWe present a robust inversion strategy for single‐station moment tensor inversionThree Marsquakes recorded by InSight reveal a predominantly normal faulting regime [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We derived the joint slip models of the three major events in the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence by inverting strong-motion and InSAR datasets. b-values and the historic earthquake scarp offset were also investigated after processing the earthquake catalog and near-field digital elevation model data. The three major events gradually released seismic moments of 1.6 × 1018 Nm (Mw 6.1), 1.5 × 1018 Nm (Mw 6.1), and 1.1 × 1019 Nm (Mw 6.7), respectively. All the ruptures exhibit both updip and along-strike directivity, but differ in the along-strike propagation direction. The high b-value found beneath three mainshock hypocenters suggests possible fluid intrusions, explaining the cascading earthquake behavior. The cumulative surface scarp from past earthquakes shows rupturing features that are consistent with the 2016 earthquake sequence, suggesting a characteristic fault behavior. Under the assumption of the Gutenberg–Richter law, the slip budget closure test gives a maximum magnitude of Mw 6.7 and implies the seismic hazard from the largest event has been released in this sequence.

Determining the anatomical source of brain activity non-invasively measured from EEG or MEG sensors is challenging. In order to simplify the source localization problem, many techniques introduce the assumption that current sources lie on the cortical surface. Another common assumption is that this current flow is orthogonal to the cortical surface, thereby approximating the orientation of cortical columns. However, it is not clear which cortical surface to use to define the current source locations, and normal vectors computed from a single cortical surface may not be the best approximation to the orientation of cortical columns. We compared three different surface location priors and five different approaches for estimating dipole vector orientation, both in simulations and visual and motor evoked MEG responses. We show that models with source locations on the white matter surface and using methods based on establishing correspondences between white matter and pial cortical surfaces dramatically outperform models with source locations on the pial or combined pial/white surfaces and which use methods based on the geometry of a single cortical surface in fitting evoked visual and motor responses. These methods can be easily implemented and adopted in most M/EEG analysis pipelines, with the potential to significantly improve source localization of evoked responses.

This paper is concerned with the inverse problem for determining the space-dependent source and the initial value simultaneously in a parabolic equation from two over-specified measurements. By means of transforming information of the initial value into the source term and obtaining a combined source term, the parabolic equation problem is converted into a parabolic problem with homogeneous conditions. Then the considered inverse problem is formulated into a regularized minimization problem, which is implemented by the finite element method based on solving a sequence of well-posed direct problems. The uniqueness of inverse solutions are proved by the solvability of the corresponding variational problem, and the conditional stability as well as the convergence rate of regularized solutions are also provided. Then the error estimate of approximate regularization solutions is presented in the finite-dimensional space. The proposed method is a very fast non-iterative algorithm, and it can successfully solve the multi-dimensional inverse problem for recovering the space-dependent source and the initial value simultaneously. Numerical results of five examples including one- and two-dimensional cases show that the proposed method is efficient and robust with respect to data noise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infrasound measurements at open‐vent volcanoes are crucial parameters for monitoring and exploring the explosive source dynamics. Volcano infrasound depicts the pressure variation within the volcanic conduit generated by the sudden expansion of volcanic gases during the fragmentation process, and it can provide important constraints on the explosive source parameters (i.e., volumetric flux and exit velocity). The acoustic source of volcanic explosions is modeled by infrasonic signals measured near the volcano vent (<3 km) assuming linear theory of sound and considering the effects of topography and atmosphere on the acoustic wavefield. However, little is known on the initial conditions within the volcanic conduit. In linear acoustics, the wavefield in a cylindrical duct propagates as a plane wavefront, which becomes spherical outside the vent. The acoustic impedance at the open end of the duct is a function of the vent radius and the pressure wavelength, and it controls the acoustic wavefield radiated outside the duct in terms of amplitude and radiation pattern. We present here a 3D‐Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) numerical method to evaluate the scattering effects on the infrasound signal produced by topography around the crater and along the source‐receiver path in terms of Green's function. Once the effects of topography are removed, we show how pressure perturbation is largely affected by the impedance contrast at the vent which, when not considered, is introducing errors in the way we quantify explosive dynamics. Key Points: This is the first infrasound study on the effect of volcanic conduit on sound radiation and its implication on volumetric fluxWe perform the acoustic waveform inversion by 3D numerical Green's functionThe source parameters, in terms of volumetric flux, gas velocity and gas volume, of volcanic explosions are derived inside the conduit [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been closely following and supporting the use of physics-based rupture models for ground motion prediction (e.g. IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG–9 and Safety Report Series No. 85) as well as for fault displacement prediction (IAEA-TECDOC, in preparation), respectively for applications in Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) and Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (FDHA) for nuclear installations. Further strengthening of this effort and dissemination in practices for SHA, FDHA and engineering issues have been done through different international working group activities, being the most outstanding two international workshops on Best Practices in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations (BestPSHANI) in 2015 and 2018. A PAGEOPH topical volume for the BestPSHANI 2015 was published in Dalguer et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:3325–3329, 2017). Now, in this PAGEOPH topical volume we collect several articles from the BestPSHANI 2018 workshop as well as several new contributions. The issue also covers further topics on the assessments of engineering issues that rely on ground motion estimates for the evaluation of structures oriented to full seismic risk analysis. A total of twenty-nine papers have been selected covering topics ranging from the seismological aspects of earthquake source studies, ground motion and fault displacement modeling to the engineering application of simulated ground motion for the analysis of soil structure interaction, structural response and fragility curve analysis for the quantification of seismic vulnerability of structures and their seismic performance. Collectively, the seismological papers discuss several current issues of source characterization and ground motion prediction for SHA, highlighting the usefulness of physics-based models for future applications in practice. The engineering papers describe methodologies to develop integral models from source-to-structures that consider the developments of synthetic seismograms as input for structural response and fragility curves estimation for seismic vulnerability assessment. Therefore, this issue contents advanced seismological and engineering resources that might be useful to scientists, engineers, students and practitioners involved in all aspects of SHA, FDHA and vulnerability analysis of engineering structures for seismic risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Release rate estimation is a vital means of revealing the emission process of radionuclides and assessing the environmental consequences in an emergency. Inverse modeling is widely used in emergency cases, but is vulnerable to plume biases in atmospheric dispersion modeling. One promising solution is a model called "Simultaneously Estimates the Release rate And Corrects both the plume range and Transport pattern" (SERACT). This study investigates the feasibility and behavior of SERACT based on four wind tunnel experiments replicating complex dispersion scenarios with both dense buildings and heterogeneous topography. SERACT's performance is compared with that of Tikhonov-regularized inversion and its predecessor. The results demonstrate that SERACT successfully corrects the modeled plume biases and simultaneously improves the release rate estimations in all four complex local-scale scenarios. The release rates retrieved by SERACT provide better agreement with the true release rates than those given by the other methods for all scenarios, with an average deviation of only 5.83%. After correction, the simulated plume reproduces the concentrations at all sites and achieves the best Pearson correlation coefficient (1.00) and fraction of simulations within a factor of 2 of the measurements (1.00); these values are 7.33 and 2.09 times higher, respectively, than those of simulations using release rates obtained using Tikhonov-regularized inversion. • Biased plume range was adjusted based on correlations among measurement sites. • Corrected plume biases lead to accurate estimations of release timing and amplitude. • 7 times improved simulation-measurement correlations than the standard method at best. • Simulation-measurement agreements are within a factor of two in all four scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a Bayesian inversion method for estimating volcanic ash emissions using satellite retrievals of ash column load and an atmospheric dispersion model. An a priori description of the emissions is used based on observations of the rise height of the volcanic plume and a stochastic model of the possible emissions. Satellite data are processed to give column loads where ash is detected and to give information on where we have high confidence that there is negligible ash. An atmospheric dispersion model is used to relate emissions and column loads. Gaussian distributions are assumed for the a priori emissions and for the errors in the satellite retrievals. The optimal emissions estimate is obtained by finding the peak of the a posteriori probability density under the constraint that the emissions are non-negative. We apply this inversion method within a framework designed for use during an eruption with the emission estimates (for any given emission time) being revised over time as more information becomes available. We demonstrate the approach for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions. We apply the approach in two ways, using only the ash retrievals and using both the ash and clear sky retrievals. For Eyjafjallajökull we have compared with an independent dataset not used in the inversion and have found that the inversion-derived emissions lead to improved predictions.

A computationally efficient source inversion algorithm was developed and applied with the Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model DIPCOT. In the process of source location estimation by minimizing a correlation-based cost function, the algorithm uses only the values of the time-integrated concentrations at the monitoring stations instead of all of the individual measurements in the full concentration-time series, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of integrations of the backward transport equations. Following the source location estimation the release start time, duration and emission rate are assessed. The developed algorithm was verified for the conditions of the ETEX-I (European Tracer Experiment—1st release). Using time-integrated measurements from all available stations, the distance between the estimated and true source location was 108 km. The estimated start time of the release was only about 1 h different from the true value, within the possible accuracy of estimate of this parameter. The estimated release duration was 21 h (the true value was 12 h). The estimated release rate was 4.28 g/s (the true value was 7.95 g/s). The estimated released mass almost perfectly fitted the true released mass (323.6 vs. 343.4 kg). It thus could be concluded that the developed algorithm is suitable for further integration in real-time decision support systems.

Abstract Source inversion uses air dispersion models and environmental measurements to determine the atmospheric radionuclide release rate, which is critical in formulating an emergency response to nuclear incidents. Because source inversion methods are vulnerable to multiple uncertainties, site-specific validations that consider multiple air dispersion scenarios are important in ensuring their correct implementation. To comprehensively evaluate the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for source inversion, a site-specific validation based on six wind tunnel experiments was performed for a highly heterogeneous nuclear power plant site in China. The six experiments cover the typical meteorology of the site and various topography types, providing abundant air dispersion scenarios for validation. The sensitivity of the EnKF to the initial guess, inflation factor, and position/number of measurements is also investigated. The results demonstrate that EnKF offers stable convergence and a reasonably bounded error in all experiments. Furthermore, the EnKF is insensitive to the initial guess, inflation factor, and number of measurements. However, it is sensitive to the position of the measurements and the air dispersion scenario. This sensitivity results from the complicated biases in air dispersion models, which highlight the key to improving the performance of EnKF. Highlights • Wind tunnel validation for ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based source inversion. • Six wind tunnel experiments replicating a heterogeneous nuclear power plant site. • Multi-scenario validation with various meteorological and topographical aspects. • EnKF shows good convergence and is insensitive to its own parameter settings. • The largest uncertainties come from the air dispersion model used in EnKF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The estimation of a hazardous contaminant unknown source characteristics (i.e., rate and location) in a complex urban environment using efficient inverse modelling techniques is a challenging problem that involves advanced computational fluid dynamics combined with appropriate mathematical algorithms. In this paper we further assess our recently proposed inverse source term estimation method (Efthimiou et al., 2017, Atmos. Environ., 170, 118–129) by applying it in two wind tunnel experiments simulating atmospheric flow and tracer dispersion following a stationary release in realistic urban settings, namely Michelstadt and Complex Urban Terrain Experiment (CUTE). The method appears to be robust and to predict with encouraging accuracy the source location and emission rate for both wind tunnel experiments. Highlights • Evaluation of an inverse source term identification method. • Variational, 2-steps method: (1) source coordinates (2) emission rate estimation. • Successful validation through simulations of Michelstadt and CUTE wind tunnel experiments. • The performance of the method varies with the examined scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 4 May 2018, MW 6.9 thrust‐faulting earthquake occurred a day after the first fissure eruption in Leilani Estates along the East Rift Zone of Kilauea, Hawaii, relatively early in the 2018 eruptive sequence. The earthquake's location and geodetic deformation pattern are similar to those of the larger 1975 Kalapana earthquake (MW 7.7), which is thought to have occurred on the décollement between the island volcanics and the former Pacific seafloor. The 2018 event has a shallow‐dipping thrust plane and shallow epicenter located just offshore. A finite‐fault kinematic slip model is determined by inversion of teleseismic body waves, strong‐ground motion recordings, and coseismic Global Positioning System offsets along the southeastern coast of Hawaii. Inversions indicate a preferred dip of 7°, slip of up to 3.0 m near 5‐km deep offshore of the coast, and low average rupture speed of ~1 km/s. These are consistent with rupture of a weak décollement. Plain Language Summary: Early in the 2018 eruption sequence at Kilauea volcano in Hawaii, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake occurred just off the coast along the Leilani Estates which had begun to experience fissure eruptions a day earlier. The earthquake was well recorded by global seismic stations and by strong motion instruments on Hawaii, and Global Positioning System offsets during the earthquake were determined along the coastal area. These data are used to determine a space‐time history of the earthquake rupture. The slip is concentrated in a band offshore parallel to the coast, and the fault that ruptured is likely to be the boundary between the volcanic pile of the island and the former Pacific Ocean seafloor. As much as 3 m of slip occurred, with the rupture having behavior similar to slow rupturing tsunami earthquakes in subduction zones, indicating a relatively weak fault. Key Points: Teleseismic, strong‐motion, and GPS displacement data are inverted to determine the spatiotemporal earthquake slip distributionPeak slip is ~3.0 m, average rise time is 4.7 s, rupture speed is 0.7 to 1.6 km/s, and duration is 30 s, indicating low fault strengthThe earthquake likely ruptured the offshore shallow‐dipping décollement between the island volcanics and the former Pacific seafloor [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Large earthquakes in stable continental regions remain puzzling as; unlike at plate boundaries, they do not result from the local buildup of strain driven by plate tectonics. The 2017 Mw6.5, Bostwana normal faulting earthquake occurred in a region devoid from recent tectonic activity and where present‐day deformation is negligible. The depth of the event (29 ± 4 km), in a felsic lower crust where ductile deformation is expected, likely requires a transient pulse of fluids from a deep source to activate brittle faulting. The mainshock was preceded by two foreshock swarm‐like sequences that may be further evidence for fluid movement in a critically loaded fault network. Contrary to plate boundary events, the Mw6.5 Botswana earthquake did not require prior localized stress or strain accumulation. We propose that the crust in stable continental regions, even long after the last tectonic episode, constitutes a reservoir of elastic stress that can be released episodically, for instance, as a result of deep fluid migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we present an inverse computational method for the identification of the location, start time, duration and quantity of emitted substance of an unknown air pollution source of finite time duration in an urban environment. We considered a problem of transient pollutant dispersion under stationary meteorological fields, which is a reasonable assumption for the assimilation of available concentration measurements within 1 h from the start of an incident. We optimized the calculation of the source-receptor function by developing a method which requires integrating as many backward adjoint equations as the available measurement stations. This resulted in high numerical efficiency of the method. The source parameters are computed by maximizing the correlation function of the simulated and observed concentrations. The method has been integrated into the CFD code ADREA-HF and it has been tested successfully by performing a series of source inversion runs using the data of 200 individual realizations of puff releases, previously generated in a wind tunnel experiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The release rate of atmospheric radionuclide emissions is a critical factor in the emergency response to nuclear accidents. However, there are unavoidable biases in radionuclide transport models, leading to inaccurate estimates. In this study, a method that simultaneously corrects these biases and estimates the release rate is developed. Our approach provides a more complete measurement-by-measurement correction of the biases with a coefficient matrix that considers both deterministic and stochastic deviations. This matrix and the release rate are jointly solved by the alternating minimization algorithm. The proposed method is generic because it does not rely on specific features of transport models or scenarios. It is validated against wind tunnel experiments that simulate accidental releases in a heterogonous and densely built nuclear power plant site. The sensitivities to the position, number, and quality of measurements and extendibility of the method are also investigated. The results demonstrate that this method effectively corrects the model biases, and therefore outperforms Tikhonov’s method in both release rate estimation and model prediction. The proposed approach is robust to uncertainties and extendible with various center estimators, thus providing a flexible framework for robust source inversion in real accidents, even if large uncertainties exist in multiple factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We have previously developed a tsunami source inversion method based on “Time Reverse Imaging” and demonstrated that it is computationally very efficient and has the ability to reproduce the tsunami source model with good accuracy using tsunami data of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami. In this paper, we implemented this approach in the 2009 Samoa earthquake tsunami triggered by a doublet earthquake consisting of both normal and thrust faulting. Our result showed that the method is quite capable of recovering the source model associated with normal and thrust faulting. We found that the inversion result is highly sensitive to some stations that must be removed from the inversion. We applied an adjoint sensitivity method to find the optimal set of stations in order to estimate a realistic source model. We found that the inversion result is improved significantly once the optimal set of stations is used. In addition, from the reconstructed source model we estimated the slip distribution of the fault from which we successfully determined the dipping orientation of the fault plane for the normal fault earthquake. Our result suggests that the fault plane dip toward the northeast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies in dynamic source modeling and kinematic source inversion show that earthquake rupture may contain greater complexity than we previously anticipated, including multiple slipping at a given point on a fault. Finite source inversion methods suffer from the nonuniqueness of solutions, and it may become more serious if we aim to resolve more complex rupture models. In this study, we perform synthetic inversion tests with dynamically generated complex rupture models, including both supershear rupture and slip reactivation, to understand the possibility of resolving complex rupture processes by inverting seismic waveform data. We adopt a linear source inversion method with multiple windows, allowing for slipping from the nucleation of rupture to the termination at all locations along a fault. We regularize the model space effectively in the Bayesian framework and perform multiple inversion tests by considering the effect of inaccurate Green's functions and station distributions. We also perform a spectral stability analysis. Our results show that it may be possible to resolve both a supershear rupture front and reactivated secondary slipping using the linear inversion method if those complex features are well separated from the main rupture and produce a fair amount of seismic energy. It may be desirable to assume the full complexity of an earthquake rupture when we first develop finite source models after a major event occurs and then assume a simple rupture model for stability if the estimated models do not show a clear pattern of complex rupture processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inspired by the first workshop on Best Practices in Physics-Based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations (BestPSHANI) conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on 18-20 November, 2015 in Vienna (), this PAGEOPH topical volume collects several extended articles from this workshop as well as several new contributions. A total of 17 papers have been selected on topics ranging from the seismological aspects of earthquake cycle simulations for source-scaling evaluation, seismic source characterization, source inversion and ground motion modeling (based on finite fault rupture using dynamic, kinematic, stochastic and empirical Green's functions approaches) to the engineering application of simulated ground motion for the analysis of seismic response of structures. These contributions include applications to real earthquakes and description of current practice to assess seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety in low seismicity areas, as well as proposals for physics-based hazard assessment for critical structures near large earthquakes. Collectively, the papers of this volume highlight the usefulness of physics-based models to evaluate and understand the physical causes of observed and empirical data, as well as to predict ground motion beyond the range of recorded data. Relevant importance is given on the validation and verification of the models by comparing synthetic results with observed data and empirical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting tsunami impacts at remote coasts largely relies on tsunami en-route measurements in an open ocean. In this work, these measurements are used to generate instant tsunami predictions in deep water and near the coast. The predictions are generated as a response or a combination of responses to one or more tsunameters, with each response obtained as a convolution of real-time tsunameter measurements and a pre-computed pulse response function (PRF). Practical implementation of this method requires tables of PRFs in a 3D parameter space: earthquake location-tsunameter-forecasted site. Examples of hindcasting the 2010 Chilean and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki tsunamis along the US West Coast and beyond demonstrated high accuracy of the suggested technology in application to trans-Pacific seismically generated tsunamis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]