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Understanding the response of the mechanisms driving ecosystem services (ESs) to socioecological factors is imperative for regional sustainable ecosystem management. However, previous studies of the mechanisms driving ESs have focused more on the degree and direction (positive and negative) of effects on ES supply or the supply–demand balance, while their nonlinear response processes have not been fully considered. In this study, a theoretical framework was developed through integrating land use/land cover data and supply and demand matrices with random forest models to assess response processes, including the relative importance and marginal effects, of essential factors that drive ES demand, supply, and supply–demand balance. Using the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as an example, our results indicated that the ES deficit regions (332 of 1070 counties or 14.45% of the area) of the YREB were located mainly in the three national urban agglomerations. Moreover, this study indicated that natural environmental factors (such as slope and precipitation) significantly influence the supply and supply–demand balance of ESs, while socioeconomic factors (such as cropland ratios and population density) profoundly influence the demand for ESs. However, cropland ratios were the most important drivers of ES supply, demand, and supply–demand balance in the YREB. Moreover, three types of response processes were identified in this study: logarithmic increase, logarithmic decrease, and volatility increase. Specific driving factors (e.g., proportion of cropland area, precipitation, population density, and slope) had significant threshold effects on the supply–demand balance of ESs. The turning points that can be extracted from these response processes should be recommended for ecosystem restoration projects to maintain regional sustainable ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the response of the mechanisms driving ecosystem services (ESs) to socioecological factors is imperative for regional sustainable ecosystem management. However, previous studies of the mechanisms driving ESs have focused more on the degree and direction (positive and negative) of effects on ES supply or the supply–demand balance, while their nonlinear response processes have not been fully considered. In this study, a theoretical framework was developed through integrating land use/land cover data and supply and demand matrices with random forest models to assess response processes, including the relative importance and marginal effects, of essential factors that drive ES demand, supply, and supply–demand balance. Using the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as an example, our results indicated that the ES deficit regions (332 of 1070 counties or 14.45% of the area) of the YREB were located mainly in the three national urban agglomerations. Moreover, this study indicated that natural environmental factors (such as slope and precipitation) significantly influence the supply and supply–demand balance of ESs, while socioeconomic factors (such as cropland ratios and population density) profoundly influence the demand for ESs. However, cropland ratios were the most important drivers of ES supply, demand, and supply–demand balance in the YREB. Moreover, three types of response processes were identified in this study: logarithmic increase, logarithmic decrease, and volatility increase. Specific driving factors (e.g., proportion of cropland area, precipitation, population density, and slope) had significant threshold effects on the supply–demand balance of ESs. The turning points that can be extracted from these response processes should be recommended for ecosystem restoration projects to maintain regional sustainable ecosystem management.