Search

Climate change, one of the most pressing issues of the twenty-first century, threatens the long-term stability and short-term variability of water resources. Variations in precipitation and temperature will influence runoff and water availability, creating significant challenges as demand for potable water increases. This study addresses a critical literature gap by employing the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs for the Indravati River Basin, India. Maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation (PCP) were statistically downscaled, improving the spatial resolution of coarse GCM data. The model established strong predictor-predictand relationships, offering enhanced local-scale climate projections for the basin. This work provides critical insights into regional climate change impacts in a previously underexplored area. The study projected the meteorological variables (Tmax, Tmin, and PCP) for Chindnar, Jagdalpur, and Pathagudem stations using four GCMs, namely CanESM5, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, EC-Earth3, and NorESM2-LM for the baseline period (1990–2014). The Correlation Coefficient-values (R-values) range from 0.75 to 0.91 for maximum temperature, 0.85 to 0.96 for minimum temperature, and 0.71 to 0.83 for precipitation were achieved using SDSM. The best-performed MPI-ESM1-2-HR model was used to project maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for 2024–2054 (2040s) and 2055–2085 (2070s) under SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios using SDSM. The downscaled results revealed significant shifts in meteorological patterns, highlighting the basin's sensitivity to different socio-economic pathways and future climate conditions. The percentage monthly, seasonal, and annual variations of Tmax, Tmin, and PCP were analysed based on each scenario and time period to suggest remedial measures for future floods and droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate change on methane (CH4) emissions from rice production systems in the Coimbatore region (Tamil Nadu, India) was studied by leveraging field experiments across two main treatments and four sub-treatments in a split-plot design. Utilizing the closed-chamber method for gas collection and gas chromatography analysis, this study identified significant differences in CH4 emissions between conventional cultivation methods and the system of rice intensification (henceforth SRI). Over two growing seasons, conventional cultivation methods reported higher CH4 emissions (range: from 36.9 to 59.3 kg CH4 ha−1 season−1) compared with SRI (range: from 2.2 to 12.8 kg CH4 ha−1 season−1). Experimental data were subsequently used to guide parametrization and validation of the DeNitrification–DeComposition (DNDC) model. The validation of the model showed good agreement between the measured and modeled data, as denoted by the statistical tests performed, which included CRM (0.09), D-index (0.99), RMSE (7.16), EF (0.96), and R2 (0.92). The validated model was then used to develop future CH4 emissions projections under various shared socio-economic pathways (henceforth SSPs) for the mid- (2021–2050) and late (2051–2080) century. The analysis revealed a potential increase in CH4 emissions for the simulated scenarios, which was dependent on specific soil and irrigation management practices. Conventional cultivation produced the highest CH4 emissions, but it was shown that they could be reduced if the current practice was replaced by minimal flooding or through irrigation with alternating wetting and drying cycles. Emissions were predicted to rise until SSP 370, with a marginal increase in SSP 585 thereafter. The findings of this work underscored an urgency to develop climate-smart location-specific mitigation strategies focused on simultaneously improving current water and nutrient management practices. The use of methanotrophs to reduce CH4 production from rice systems should be considered in future work. This research also highlighted the critical interaction that exists between agricultural practices and climate change, and emphasized the need to implement adaptive crop management strategies that can sustain productivity and mitigate the environmental impacts of rice-based systems in southern India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing countries, especially Africa, contribute the least to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while facing disproportionate impacts of climate change, including environmental and economic. Climate change cost projection studies using integrated assessment models (IAMs) are mostly global and often make policy recommendations for specific regions. This study aims to quantify the abatement costs of implementing four climate policies to limit global warming to 2 degreesCelsius above the pre-industrial era in the Africa and Middle East (AME) region. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from 2010 to 2100 were employed to forecast these costs. The RCPs were assessed using PAGE 09, an IAM called the policy analysis for greenhouse effects, which evaluates the costs and benefits of climate actions or inactions. The findings indicate that in 2030 at a 90% confidence level, RCP 2.6 is projected to result in a 1.63% GDP loss, equivalent to a potential cost of up to $1,698,829.95 million. Conversely, RCP 6.0 could lead to a loss of as much as 12.22% of GDP. However, the study reveals that as the policies are consistently implemented, the percentage loss of GDP gradually declines and approaches zero by 2100 for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. In the case of RCP 6.0, the decline begins earlier, from 2030. These findings suggest that the economic impact of the RCP climate policies varies during the early stages of their implementation but can become beneficial to the AME region, progressively leading to 2100 with sustained efforts. However, using the RCP profiles directly for a multicultural region like AME is challenging due to the limitations of employing the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) for different emission scenarios and the issue of inconsistent baselines. It is arguable that a hybrid approach combining elements from the four climate pathways could be pursued in the AME region, specifically Africa, to minimize associated economic costs. The AME is essentially diverse. Therefore, the study recommends improving the regional representation of the SSPs and, perhaps, the RCPs, to enhance the accuracy of future assessments. This study is the first to quantify climate change mitigation costs for the AME region by leveraging RCP projections up to 2100, emphasizing Africa, which has been historically neglected despite its high vulnerability index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geospatial climate change projections are critical for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations across a wide range of disciplines. Here we present monthly-based grids of climate change projections at a 2-km resolution covering Canada and the United States. These data products are based on outputs from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and include projections for 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs), three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, and SSP5 8.5), four 30-year time periods (2011–2040, 2021–2050, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100), and a suite of climate variables, including monthly maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, climate moisture index, and various bioclimatic summaries. The products employ a delta downscaling method, which combines historical normal values at climate stations with broad-scale change projections (or deltas) from GCMs, followed by spatial interpolation using ANUSPLIN. Various quality control efforts, described herein, were undertaken to ensure that the final products provided reasonable estimates of future climate.

In the present work, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm of the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite was utilised to evaluate the AOD simulations of newly emerged general circulation models (GCMs) of coupled model intercomparison project-phase 6 (CMIP6) over the Indian landmass. Further, the AOD from the CMIP6 models has been compared with its previous generation models from CMIP5 to examine the extent of uncertainties in AOD with reference to the MODIS AOD datasets. The evolution of aerosols over India using the different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) has also been studied till the year 2050. The results show that the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models underestimated the mean annual AOD of the Indian region as a whole. A multi-model mean (MMM) of thirteen GCMs from CMIP6 showed an underestimation of AOD by 40 to 60% over the Indo-Gangetic plains, while an overestimation of 60 to 80% in AOD was observed over the Peninsular and Central Indian regions in comparison with MODIS for the study period of 2001 to 2014. In future simulations, the pathway SSP370 has shown a significant increasing trend of AOD whereas SSP126 and SSP585 have shown significant decreasing trends of AOD by the year 2050. In the future, the changes in the AOD will mainly be contributed by the anthropogenic aerosols (AOA, BC, and Sulphates) emissions in all SSPs. The large bias of MMM with the MODIS requires further research in terms of analysing the accuracy of emission datasets that have been used to simulate the AODs by the CMIP6 models over the Indian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world is changing, in terms of both climate and socio-economics. These changes have the potential to have a profound impact on the health of humans, animals and the environment, often grouped together as ‘One Health’. Humans, animals and the environment are closely interlinked and to determine realistic future vulnerabilities we must consider everything together. We need comprehensive scenarios which cover a broad range of variables affecting One Health. We developed a methodology to create national-level One Health scenarios based on the global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which we applied to the Netherlands. We identified variables which should be included in such scenarios and gathered input from existing scenarios, stakeholder consultation and current plans and commitments. This information was combined to create detailed descriptions, which were used to assess the main health risks under each scenario. All the scenarios face similar challenges, for example an aging population, introductions of infectious diseases and rising sea-levels and extreme weather events; however, in some scenarios, they deal with these challenges much better than in others. The healthiest outcome was achieved when a policy of low greenhouse gas emissions was combined with a well-functioning society which looks after both its citizens and the environment. These scenarios can be used to analyse specific health risks and to consider options for mitigation and preparedness. Because they are national-level scenarios, they allow the local context, policies and customs to be accounted for and should be a valuable tool for protecting One Health in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales. Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy‐relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio‐economic and socio‐cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur‐ASNs). We compared the Eur‐ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global‐ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale‐dependent differences across scenarios. We also compared the Global‐ and Eur‐ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio‐economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives. Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but complementary scenarios focussed on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we implemented and presented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change, including biological invasions. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Copyright of People & Nature is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The recent global warming started at the end of the 19th century, causing an increase in the average temperature of Earth and posing environmental, social, economic, and cultural repercussions. Much tangible cultural heritage is composed of natural stones, which decay due to the combination of chemical, physical, and biological factors. Biodeterioration leads to a loss of the performance requirements and socio-economic value of stone building materials. In the future, the dynamics of biodeterioration will hypothetically vary. This study aims to shed light on this variation by comparing biodeterioration under historical climatic conditions (1995–2014) with a future scenario defined by the IPCC SSP5-8.5 for the reference period 2080–2099. The material tested is Pedra de Ançã (PA), a candidate for World Heritage Stone. Climatic chambers were used to simulate the historical and predicted environmental conditions. The scope of this investigation is to understand the growth dynamic of the biodeteriogen Rhodotorula sp. and to study the morphological and aesthetic variations of stone surfaces. Biochemical and micro-topographic analyses highlighted the metabolic activity of the population proliferating under distinct environmental conditions, revealing better adaptability of Rhodotorula sp. and higher biocorrosion in the historical climate status with respect to the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background The Paris Agreement aims at minimizing threats of climate change by keeping global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level and to pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are developed to investigate GHG emission pathways. RCP2.6 focuses on limiting the global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees Celsius. This paper assesses the impacts of carbon price and CCS on energy and GHG emissions in Thailand. The no carbon price (T0) and the carbon price pathways are compared. In addition, the net-zero emissions and year are discussed. Results The decarbonized energy system with low-carbon power generation and increased electricity usage in the final energy consumption is the main pillar of GHG mitigation. Imposing carbon prices; increasing solar, wind, and biomass electricity generation; energy efficiency improvements in power generation; and energy savings in the industry and the building sectors, will be the key options for clean power generation in the carbon prices (CT) scenarios. Renewable electricity, coal and natural gas, coupled with CCS and bio-energy with CCS (BECCS) will be utilized significantly to curb GHG emissions. The increase of renewable energy and the electrification of end-use plays a key role in reducing GHG emissions. Fuel switching from diesel to biodiesel, energy efficiency improvement and electric pick-ups and trucks will help reducing GHG emissions in the transport sector. Conclusions There are three major policy implications to meet Thailand’s 2 degrees Celsius target. First, carbon prices will be the mechanism to accelerate the transformation in the energy sector. Wind and solar electricity will be key pillars of clean electricity in 2050. Policy-makers should update the renewable electricity plans to meet Thailand’s 2 degrees Celsius target in 2050. Second, coal- and gas-fired plants, and BECCS will become important options in reducing CO2 emissions. The policy-makers should investigate the application of CCS in the power sector and the storage location. Third, a major transformation in the transport sector is critically needed. Liquid biofuel and electrification in pick-ups, sedans, and trucks will help reduce GHG emissions.

Climate change affects air quality and people's health. Therefore, accurate prediction of future climate change is of great significance for human beings to better adapt and mitigate climate change. Using the projection simulation dataset of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, the future climate change in the Sahara region under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) is analyzed. The results show that annual and seasonal average surface air temperature in the Sahara region will continue to rise throughout the twenty-first century relative to the baseline period 1995–2014 if greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue increasing. Under the four SSPs scenarios, the warming in the Sahara region will be more pronounced than in the whole world through the twenty-first century. The annual maximum temperature (TX), the annual minimum temperature (TN), the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 35 °C (TX 35), and the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 40 °C (TX 40) in the Sahara region will continue to increase until the end of the twenty-first century under the four scenarios. The results of climate change prediction can provide scientific reference for climate policy-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India has committed to reducing the emissions intensity of GDP by 33–35% from the 2005 level by 2030 in alignment with objectives of the Paris Agreement. This will require a significant reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food and land-use sector. In this paper, we construct three potential pathways for India to achieve its emissions target by 2050 involving moderate ambitions of mitigation action (BAU), moderate ambitions combined with achieving healthy diets (BAU + NIN), and high levels of mitigation action inclusive of healthy diets (SUSTAINABLE). Using an integrated accounting tool, the FABLE Calculator, that harmonizes various socioeconomic and biophysical data, we project these pathways under the conditions of cross-country balanced trade flows. Results from the projections show that the demand for cereals will increase by 2050, leading to increased GHG emissions under BAU. Under the SUSTAINABLE pathways, GHG emissions will decrease over the same period due to reduced demand for cereals, whereas significant crop productivity and harvest intensity gains would lead to increased crop production. The exercise reveals the indispensability of healthy diets, improved crop, and livestock productivity, and net-zero deforestation in achieving India's mid-century emission targets from the agriculture sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although climate change is an inherently global issue, its impacts will not be felt equally across Earth's pressure belts and continental-scale regions. This study seeks to examine which areas are becoming warmer and experiencing drought, with a particular focus on Africa, in light of its low historical emissions but poor economic capacity for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, and Morocco, whose conditional goal, which will be achieved with foreign assistance, is rated as "almost sufficient" but is not yet in compliance with the Paris Agreement's goal. We also explore the consistency and sources of uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and analyze what changes from CMIP5—whose projections are based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—to Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs)-based scenarios for CMIP6. We find that strong forcing, with no additional climate policies, is projected to raise the mean annual temperature over Morocco for the long-term period by 6.25 ° C. All CMIP6 models agree that warming (resp. drought) will be greater over land masses and poles (resp. tropical and coastal regions) than over oceans and equatorial regions (resp. high latitudes, equatorial, and monsoon zones), but less so on the intensity of changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green development is a low-carbon, sustainable model for the achievement of the harmonious development of the economy and nature. Nowadays, the problems of resource scarcity and environmental pollution in the process of economic development are pressing, and the promotion of green development is the general trend. As one of the three growth poles of China's Yangtze River economic belt, the Chengdu-Chongqing City Group is an important platform to lead toward green development in the western region of China. Based on the understanding of the connotation of green development, this study established a green development-level evaluation system, including 19 indicators in three dimensions: target level, criterion level, and indicator level, and used the entropy weight method to measure the green development level of the Chengdu-Chongqing City Group. In view of the dynamic nature of the green development process, this study constructed a system dynamics model of the green development level of the Chengdu-Chongqing City Group and simulated and compared it between 2022 and 2050 under five shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios so as to provide a reference basis for future development. The results show that the overall green development level of the Chengdu-Chongqing City Group is on an upward trend, with the highest green development level under the SSP1 path and the lowest under the SSP3 path, and the lagging distance tends to increase further. In the next 30 years, the Chengdu-Chongqing City Group should initially follow SSP2 as the basis for development and then gradually perform a transition to SSP1 by 2035 to achieve real sustainable development, after which it should continue to develop according to the SSP1 path until 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ephedra sinica Stapf is an important traditional medicinal plant. However, in recent years, due to climate change and human activities, its habitat area and distribution area have been decreasing sharply. In order to provide better protection for E. sinica, it is necessary to study the historical and future potential zoning of E. sinica. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to simulate the potential geographical distribution patterns of E. sinica under historical and future climatic conditions simulated using two Shared Socio-economic Pathways. The main results were also analyzed using the jackknife method and ArcGIS. The results showed that: (1) the potential suitable distribution area of E. sinica in China is about 29.18 × 105 km2—high-suitable areas, medium-suitable areas, and low-suitable areas cover 6.38 × 105 km2, 8.62 × 105 km2, 14.18 × 105 km2, respectively—and E. sinica is mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia; (2) precipitation and temperature contribute more to the distribution of E. sinica; (3) under two kinds of SSPs, the total suitable area of E. sinica increased significantly, but the differences between 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 are not obvious; (4) the barycentre of E. sinica moves from the historical position to its southwest. The results show that E. sinica can easily adapt to future climates well, and its ecological value will become more important. This study provides scientific guidance for the protection, management, renewal and maintenance of E. sinica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is considered an irreversible problem, which might directly or indirectly affect all the organisms and ecosystems on the earth and the world has to struggle with. Plants having no effective movement mechanism are the group that global climate change will affect the most. In order to minimize the species and population losses, it is important to estimate the changes in the available distribution areas of species and to ensure the migration mechanism, which the species will need, by the hand of humans. The present study aims to reveal how potential distribution areas of fir, which is among the significant tree species of Turkey and significant portion of global distribution of which is in Turkey, will change from an altitudinal aspect because of the climate change. The results achieved showed that, because of the effects of global climate change, the suitable distribution areas of Abies nordmanniana subsp. nordmanniana will significantly decrease especially at high altitudes and that suitable distribution areas of Abies nordmanniana subsp. equi-trojani will reduce at altitudes higher than 1400 m but increase generally at the altitudes between 200 and 600 m. Moreover, suitable distribution areas of Abies cilicica will shift towards higher altitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water scarcity is a compelling and complex global challenge that has far-reaching implications for both ecological systems and human societies. In response, inter-basin water transfer initiatives have been advocated as potential remedies. Though effective in providing immediate relief, the long-term viability of these initiatives is disputed. Notably, recurring scarcity can result from increased water demand in the recipient basin due to transferred water. Addressing this requires balancing water demand and supply. Beyond supply-focused measures such as water transfers, a crucial strategy involves adopting demand-focused approaches to reduce reliance on such transfers. This study centers on the Gavkhouni basin in Iran, where despite repeated water transfers, water scarcity remains persistent due to climate fluctuations, population growth, agricultural activities, and economic development. The research developed a comprehensive system dynamic model, integrating environmental, social, and economic variables impacting water balance in the region in order to assess the effectiveness of three distinct demand-focused water management strategies, namely, technology-based, cropping pattern-based, and land-based policies, both individually and in synergy. This analysis was conducted across a set of scenarios encompassing climate change, population growth, GDP dynamics, and water transfer patterns. The findings revealed a satisfactory accuracy of the water management system model, with a 6.2% mean absolute error. In addition, findings highlighted the advantages of a multifaceted strategy, with technology-driven interventions and optimized cropping patterns emerging as particularly effective. However, the economic dimensions of these policies warrant comprehensive exploration due to the significant impact they have on the feasibility and effectiveness of the policies. The study emphasizes the need to combine demand-side policies with supply strategies like water transfers. This comprehensive approach is vital for effective water management and long-term water security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Paris Agreement aims at minimizing threats of climate change by keeping global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level and to pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are developed to investigate GHG emission pathways. RCP2.6 focuses on limiting the global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees Celsius. This paper assesses the impacts of carbon price and CCS on energy and GHG emissions in Thailand. The no carbon price (T0) and the carbon price pathways are compared. In addition, the net-zero emissions and year are discussed. Results: The decarbonized energy system with low-carbon power generation and increased electricity usage in the final energy consumption is the main pillar of GHG mitigation. Imposing carbon prices; increasing solar, wind, and biomass electricity generation; energy efficiency improvements in power generation; and energy savings in the industry and the building sectors, will be the key options for clean power generation in the carbon prices (CT) scenarios. Renewable electricity, coal and natural gas, coupled with CCS and bio-energy with CCS (BECCS) will be utilized significantly to curb GHG emissions. The increase of renewable energy and the electrification of end-use plays a key role in reducing GHG emissions. Fuel switching from diesel to biodiesel, energy efficiency improvement and electric pick-ups and trucks will help reducing GHG emissions in the transport sector. Conclusions: There are three major policy implications to meet Thailand's 2 degrees Celsius target. First, carbon prices will be the mechanism to accelerate the transformation in the energy sector. Wind and solar electricity will be key pillars of clean electricity in 2050. Policy-makers should update the renewable electricity plans to meet Thailand's 2 degrees Celsius target in 2050. Second, coal- and gas-fired plants, and BECCS will become important options in reducing CO2 emissions. The policy-makers should investigate the application of CCS in the power sector and the storage location. Third, a major transformation in the transport sector is critically needed. Liquid biofuel and electrification in pick-ups, sedans, and trucks will help reduce GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution dynamics of invasive alien plants is the fundamental information for early detection and rapid response (EDRR) to these species in a new habitat. Based on the field survey data and online databases, the present research work utilized Maximum Entropy model (Maxent) to simulate the distribution dynamics of four invasive plants Ageratina adenophora (Spreng.) R. M. King et H. Rob., Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.) Griseb., Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. and Mikania micrantha Kunth in China, under current and future climate (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) in two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs: SSP 245 and 585) of the newly released coupled model intercomparison project phase6 (CMIP6). All the suitable habitat areas of these plants will significantly expand in the future, but at different expansion levels. M. micrantha will have the largest distribution area (increase by 61–120%), while A. adenophora will expand by 7–33%, A. philoxeroides by 12–74%, and A. artemisiifolia by 8–27%, respectively. Additionally, the habitat centers of the four species will shift to north, i.e., A. philoxeroides, A. artemisiifolia and M. micrantha to northwest, and A. adenophora to northeast, except that the core distributions of A. adenophora and A. artemisiifolia will move to southwest under one certain environment scenario (SSP 245 in the period of 2061–2080). Compared to aspect index and slope topographical variables, the population density, temperature, and precipitation are found to be more important variables in describing the distribution of these plants. The dynamics of habitats of these four species and the correlating driver factors proposed in this work provide essential insights into future spatial management of invasive plants and biodiversity conservation in China, which is, not only human activities should be regulated and the migration of invasive species be reduced, but also the monitoring of high-risk areas should be strengthened in order to ensure effective EDRR.

Buildings account for 36% of global final energy demand and are key to mitigating climate change. Assessing the evolution of the global building stock and its energy demand is critical to support mitigation strategies. However, most global studies lack granularity and overlook heterogeneity in the building sector, limiting the evaluation of demand transformation scenarios. We develop global residential building scenarios along the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) 1–3 and assess the evolution of building stock, energy demand, and CO2 emissions for space heating and cooling with MESSAGEix-Buildings, a modelling framework soft-linked to an integrated assessment framework. MESSAGEix-Buildings combines bottom-up modelling of energy demand, stock turnover, and discrete choice modelling for energy efficiency decisions, and accounts for heterogeneity in geographical contexts, socio-economics, and buildings characteristics. Global CO2 emissions for space heating are projected to decrease between 34.4 (SSP3) and 52.5% (SSP1) by 2050 under energy efficiency improvements and electrification. Space cooling demand starkly rises in developing countries, with CO2 emissions increasing globally by 58.2 (SSP1) to 85.2% (SSP3) by 2050. Scenarios substantially differ in the uptake of energy efficient new construction and renovations, generally higher for single-family homes, and in space cooling patterns across income levels and locations, with most of the demand in the global south driven by medium- and high-income urban households. This study contributes an advancement in the granularity of building sector knowledge to be assessed in integration with other sources of emissions in the context of global climate change mitigation and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Soil erosion is estimated at 2.32 Mg/ha/yr across all LULC classes in the US. • Croplands are responsible for 44% of soil erosion on 17% of US land. • Cultivated and other vegetated lands contribute to 90% of soil erosion. • The highest soil erosion rates are seen in corn, soybean, and wheat lands. • Future urban and cropland expansion will increase soil erosion rates in the US. Brought on by anthropogenic actions, accelerated soil erosion inflicts extreme changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These field-scale (30 m) changes have neither been fully surveyed in the present, nor predicted for a probable future. Water-driven soil erosion (i.e., sheet and rill erosion) rates across the contiguous United States were estimated for the present, and then predicted for the future using three alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The G2 erosion model which is integrated with Machine Learning (ML) and Remote Sensing (RS) techniques were used to estimate soil erosion based on gauge observations of long-term precipitation, and climate and land use land cover (LULC) scenarios. The baseline model (2020) estimated soil erosion rates of 2.32 Mg ha−1 yr−1 under current conservation agriculture practices (CPs). Maintaining current CPs, future scenarios predict an 8 % to 21 % increase in soil erosion under different combinations of SSP-RCP climate and LULC change scenarios. The findings of this study can help policy makers for future conservation planning on maintaining soil fertility, mitigating environmental impacts, and promoting food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A dynamic fleet-based life cycle assessment framework combined the vehicle lightweight design model is established. • The fleet-scale and long-term greenhouse gas mitigation potential attributable to the vehicle lightweighting along with the electrification trend is estimated. • Along with the electrification trend, the mitigation potential shrinks due to the decline of fuel saving with powertrain efficiency improvement. Lightweighting is believed to be a silver bullet to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the road transportation. However, the fleet-scale and long-term GHG emissions estimation on the light-duty passenger vehicle (LDPV) fleet in China is still underexplored. A dynamic fleet-based life cycle assessment (LCA) model is developed to predict the annual GHG emissions attributable to the lightweight LDPV fleet in China at provincial level. With the most aggressive implementation of lightweighting, the cumulative mitigation potential of lightweight LDPV fleet from 2021 to 2050 is 0.72 Gt CO 2 eq and 0.55 Gt CO 2 eq using high-strength steel (AHSS) and aluminium (Al), respectively. Sooner implementation brings a higher cumulative reduction in GHG emissions. Delaying the implementation by five years would sacrifice 0.16 Gt CO 2 eq ∼0.2 Gt CO 2 eq cumulative reduction, and the loss would increase to 0.31 Gt CO 2 eq ∼0.41 Gt CO 2 eq when postpone the lightweighting by ten years. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is rising global interest in growing more trees in order to meet growing population, climate change, and wood energy needs. Using recently published data on planted forests by country, we estimated relationships between per capita income and planted forest area that are useful for understanding prospective planted forest area futures through 2100 under various United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-inspired Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Under all SSPs, projections indicate increasing global planted forest area trends for the next three to four decades and declining trends thereafter, commensurate with the quadratic functions employed. Our projections indicate somewhat less total future planted forest area than prior linear forecasts. Compared to 293 million ha (Mha) of planted forests globally in 2015, SSP5 (a vision of a wealthier world) projects the largest increase (to 334 Mha, a 14% gain) by 2055, followed by SSP2 (a continuation of historical socio-economic trends, to 327 Mha, or an 11% gain), and SSP3 (a vision of a poorer world, to 319 Mha, a 9% gain). The projected trends for major world regions differ from global trends, consistent with differing socio-economic development trajectories in those regions. Our projections based on empirical FAO data for the past 25 years, as well as those by other researchers, suggest that achieving the much more ambitious global planted forest targets proposed recently will require exceptional forest land and investment supply shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inherently unknown future development of a Nordic bio-economy was studied with four scenarios applied in an ecosystem service assessment framework. This framework couples CORINE land use cover with estimates of 15 final ecosystem services from the CICES 5.1 classification in biophysical and monetary terms. Current land use in two catchments, Lillebæk (83% cropland, area 4.7 km2, Denmark) and Ovre Haldenvassdraget (67% forest, 1006 km2, Norway) was compared with four scenarios for 2050. One scenario focusing on sustainability and environmental awareness led to considerable changes in land use and ecosystem service delivery (more diverse provisioning and higher value of regulating services, but not a higher total economic value), whereas the other three did not deviate markedly from the current scenario. Projected land use scenarios were verified with experts and stakeholder representatives. We conclude that the framework has sufficient resolution to show differences in service delivery among scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the combined impacts of future climate and socio-economic change at the country level is vital for supporting national adaptation policies. Here, we use a novel modelling approach to study the systemic impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on the Czech Republic, taking account of cross-sectoral interactions between agriculture, water, forestry, land-use and biodiversity, and, for the first time, trans-national interactions. We evaluate the national-level baseline results, scenario-neutral model sensitivities, and climate and socio-economic scenario impacts using a European-scale integrated modelling tool. Consistently across most climate and socio-economic scenarios, the Czech Republic is projected to have increasing importance as a crop-growing region in Europe, due to an increased competitive advantage within the continent. Arable land in the Czech Republic expands, at the expense of livestock farming and forestry, with associated impacts of increased water scarcity and reduced biodiversity for the country. Accounting for trans-national interactions in national-scale assessments provides more realistic assessments of impacts and helps to identify the changing role of the country within its regional and continental domain. Such improved understanding can support policy-makers in developing national adaptation actions that reduce adverse impacts and realise opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine‐resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species–area relationship, to estimate the effect of land‐use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land‐use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio‐economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre‐2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land‐use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7–4.5 times compared to land‐use‐only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land‐use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre‐industrial times is observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenarios have been recognised as a useful tool for planning, which have resulted in a strong increase in the number of (multi-scale) scenarios in climate change research. This paper addresses the need for methodological progress and testing of conceptual considerations, by extending the global shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We present a set of four European SSPs until 2100 and a novel method to develop qualitative stories for Europe equivalent to the global SSPs starting from an existing set of European scenarios. Similar to the global SSPs, the set includes a sustainable future with global cooperation and less intensive lifestyles (We are the World; Eur-SSP1); a future in which countries struggle to maintain living standards in a high-carbon intensive Europe (Icarus; Eur-SSP3); a world in which power becomes concentrated in a small elite and where Europe becomes an important player (Riders on the Storm; Eur-SSP4); and one where a lack of environmental concern leads to the over-exploitation of fossil fuel resources addressed by technological solutions (Fossil-fuelled Development; Eur-SSP5). We conclude that the global SSPs are a good starting point for developing equivalent continental scale scenarios that, in turn, can serve multiple purposes. There are, however, methodological challenges related to the choice for equivalence and the exact methods by which scenarios are constructed that need to be tested further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific quantification of urban resilience can provide a basis for decision-making on the construction of resilient cities to ensure safe and high-quality urban development. This study used text mining and big data statistical analysis to construct an urban resilience evaluation index system from four dimensions: social, economic, infrastructure, and ecological, and constructed an urban resilience evaluation model based on the system dynamics approach to elucidate the interactions among the indicators. Taking 11 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as study cases, four future development scenarios were set under Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), and the variations in the urban resilience index of each city to 2030 were simulated. The research results show that: (1) The resilience of the 11 cities currently shows an upward trend, but the stratification phenomenon is obvious, and the overall situation is high in the east and low in the west, high in the north and low in the south; (2) The variations of resilience index vary among cities under different scenarios, and in a comprehensive comparison, SSP1 is the optimal development path; (3) The resilience gap among the 11 cities will remain in the future, but the gap in the east-west direction may gradually decrease, while the gap in the north-south direction remains significant. • A system dynamics model for urban resilience. • The model analyzed the urban resilience of 11 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. • Four future development scenarios were designed under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways. • The variations of resilience index vary among cities under different scenarios. • This method can also be applied to the study of resilience in other cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future scenarios modeling has been conducted to investigate the effectiveness of urban stormwater infrastructure and to cater to potential future changes. The changes of quantity and quality of urban stormwater, and attributable to climate change and urbanization, were examined and tested in four urban catchments based on future scenarios modeling. Based on our findings, we observed that there were different degrees of performance corresponding to 2-, 10-, and 100-year design storms. However, the general patterns and insights deduced were similar: (1) the peak runoff and water quality appeared to be impacted more significantly by urbanization factors than that due to climate change; (2) the influence from urbanization (increase intensity of land use and population density) was found to be more significant than that from land-use changes alone; (3) catchments with relatively rapid developing rates appeared to produce more serious adverse influence on the stormwater quabntity and quality; and (4) low impact developments as key adaptation practices could be potentially effective in mitigating adverse impacts of future changes on urban stormwater system. The methodology developed in this study could be useful for urban stormwater planning and testing the plan against future change scenarios as a result of urbanization and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population ageing, an increase in the older age group’s portion of the total population, worsens the heat tolerance of a society. However, impacts of ageing on the social exposure to projected unprecedented hot summers (UHSs) are uncertain. We show that a shifting of the population distribution towards older ages amplifies the vulnerability of a country to the increasing frequency of UHSs as a result of warming during 2040–2070, especially in most populated regions such as China, India, and sub-Saharan countries. The warming scenarios from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are combined with population scenarios from three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 together to estimate the exposure to UHSs. The ageing-driven increase in the exposure of elderly to UHSs ranges 51–198, 91–261, and 47–156 million in China, India, and sub-Saharan countries, respectively, between population scenarios. In China, with decreasing total population, the exposure to UHSs will be increased by rapid population ageing. In India and sub-Saharan countries, the potential of ageing to raise the exposure to UHSs will be even larger than that of warming. In contrast, in aged societies with slow ageing trend, e.g. United States and Europe, the warming mainly increases the exposure to UHSs. Our results suggest the changing age structure could exacerbate a country’s heat vulnerability despite limiting warming to a certain level in the future.

In this paper we consider some of the economic implications of climate change scenarios as described in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). By comparing potential water demand with estimates of (sustainable) water availability in different regions, we identify regions that are likely to be constrained in their future economic growth potential by the scarcity of water resources. We assess the macroeconomic impact of water scarcity under alternative allocation rules finding that, by assigning more water to sectors in which it has a higher value, shifting production to less water intensive sectors, and importing more water intensive goods, constrained regions can effectively neutralize these water related climate risks and adapt to a changing water environment. However, this adaptation effort is likely to imply some radical changes in water management policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]