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Epidemiologists have long argued that side effects of the stress response include preterm birth. Research reports that fear of lethal infection stressed pregnant persons at the outset of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and that "shutdowns" and "social distancing" impeded access to social support and prenatal care. The decline in preterm births in high-income countries, including the United States, during the early months of the pandemic therefore poses a paradox for science. Explanations of this "pandemic preterm paradox" remain untested. We applied time-series modeling to data describing 80 monthly conception cohorts begun in the United States from July 2013 through February 2020 to determine which of 3 explanations most parsimoniously explained the paradox. We infer that "prior loss," or the argument that an increase in spontaneous abortions and stillbirths depleted the population of fetuses at risk of preterm birth, best explains data currently available. We describe the implications of these results for public health practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Objectives Methods Results Conclusions The secondary sex ratio (i.e., the ratio of male to female live births; hereafter referred to as the SSR) falls in populations encountering ambient stressors. Much theory and some empirical work indicates that males born to low SSR cohorts may be “positively selected” in that excess culling in utero may correspond with greater than expected survival among live‐born males in that cohort. We extend prior work by testing, in historical Utah, whether the SSR varies positively with male mortality at pre‐reproductive ages.This study uses detailed records from the Utah Population Database to focus on Utahns born 1850–1940. We use rigorous time‐series methods, which control for strong secular declines in mortality as well as ambient perturbations shared equally among males and females, to investigate the male culling inference.We observe a positive relation between the SSR and male mortality during youth (i.e., 5 to < 20 years; p < 0.05) but not in infancy or early childhood.In this historical population, the SSR appears to gauge hardiness of surviving male cohorts. However, whether the high fertility and/or family structure context of Latter‐day Saints in historical Utah explains the age‐specific pattern of male mortality warrants further scrutiny. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Selection in utero predicts that population stressors raise the standard for how quickly fetuses must grow to avoid spontaneous abortion. Tests of this prediction must use indirect indicators of fetal loss in birth cohorts because vital statistics systems typically register fetal deaths at the 20th week of gestation or later, well after most have occurred. We argue that tests of selection in utero would make greater progress if researchers adopted an indicator of selection against slow-growing fetuses that followed from theory, allowed sex-specific tests and used readily available data. We propose such an indicator and assess its validity as a dependent variable by comparing its values among monthly birth cohorts before, and during, the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden. METHODOLOGY: We apply Box-Jenkins methods to 50 pre-pandemic birth cohorts (i.e., December 2016 through January 2020) and use the resulting transfer functions to predict counterfactual values in our suggested indicator for selection for ten subsequent birth cohorts beginning in February 2020. We then plot all 60 residual values as well as their 95% detection interval. If birth cohorts in gestation at the onset of the pandemic lost more slow-growing fetuses than expected from history, more than one of the last 10 (i.e. pandemic-exposed) residuals would fall below the detection interval. RESULTS: Four of the last 10 residuals of our indicator for males and for females fell below the 95% detection interval. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Consistent with selection in utero, Swedish birth cohorts in gestation at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic included fewer than expected infants who grew slowly in utero.

Prior research based on Swedish data suggests that collective optimism, as measured by monthly incidence of suicides, correlates inversely with selection in utero against male twins in a population. We test this finding in the US, which reports the highest suicide rate of all high-income countries, and examine whether monthly changes in overall suicides precede changes in the ratio of male twin to male singleton live births. Consistent with prior work, we also examine as a key independent variable, suicides among women aged 15−49 years. We retrieved monthly data on suicides and the ratio of male twin to singleton live births from CDC WONDER, 2003 to 2019, and applied Box-Jenkins iterative time-series routines to detect and remove autocorrelation from both series. Results indicate that a 1% increase in monthly change in overall suicides precedes a 0.005 unit decline in male twin live births ratio 6 months later (coefficient = −.005, p value =.004). Results remain robust to use of suicides among reproductive-aged women as the independent variable (coefficient = −.0012, p value =.014). Our study lends external validity to prior research and supports the notion that a decline in collective optimism corresponds with greater selection in utero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objectivesThe suspicion that a population stressor as profound as the COVID-19 pandemic would increase preterm birth among cohorts in gestation at its outset has not been supported by data collected in 2020. An evolutionary perspective on this circumstance suggests that natural selection in utero, induced by the onset of the pandemic, caused pregnancies that would otherwise have produced a preterm birth to end early in gestation as spontaneous abortions. We test this possibility using the odds of a live-born twin among male births in Norway as an indicator of the depth of selection in birth cohorts.MethodologyWe apply Box-Jenkins methods to 50 pre-pandemic months to estimate counterfactuals for the nine birth cohorts in gestation in March 2020 when the first deaths attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in Norway. We use Alwan and Roberts outlier detection methods to discover any sequence of outlying values in the odds of a live-born twin among male births in exposed birth cohorts.ResultsWe find a downward level shift of 27% in the monthly odds of a twin among male births beginning in May and persisting through the remainder of 2020.Conclusions and implicationsConsistent with evolutionary theory and selection in utero, birth cohorts exposed in utero to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic yielded fewer male twins than expected.Lay summaryOur finding of fewer than expected male twin births during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic provides more evidence that evolution continues to affect the characteristics and health of contemporary populations.

Objectives: The secondary sex ratio (i.e., the ratio of male to female live births; hereafter referred to as the SSR) falls in populations encountering ambient stressors. Much theory and some empirical work indicates that males born to low SSR cohorts may be "positively selected" in that excess culling in utero may correspond with greater than expected survival among live-born males in that cohort. We extend prior work by testing, in historical Utah, whether the SSR varies positively with male mortality at pre-reproductive ages., Methods: This study uses detailed records from the Utah Population Database to focus on Utahns born 1850-1940. We use rigorous time-series methods, which control for strong secular declines in mortality as well as ambient perturbations shared equally among males and females, to investigate the male culling inference., Results: We observe a positive relation between the SSR and male mortality during youth (i.e., 5 to < 20 years; p < 0.05) but not in infancy or early childhood., Conclusions: In this historical population, the SSR appears to gauge hardiness of surviving male cohorts. However, whether the high fertility and/or family structure context of Latter-day Saints in historical Utah explains the age-specific pattern of male mortality warrants further scrutiny., (© 2024 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Abstract Evolutionary theory, when coupled with research from epidemiology, demography, and population endocrinology, suggests that contracting economies affect the fitness and health of human populations via natural selection in utero. We know, for example, that fetal death increases more among males than females when the economy unexpectedly contracts; that unexpected economic contraction predicts low secondary sex ratios; and that males from low sex ratio birth cohorts live, on average, longer than those from high sex ratio cohorts. We also know that low levels of human chorionic gonadotropin (i.e., hCG) measured in the serum of pregnant women predict fetal death. We do not, however, know whether male survivors of conception cohorts subjected to contracting economies exhibit, as theory predicts, higher hCG than those from other cohorts. We show, in 71 monthly conception cohorts including nearly two million California births, that they do. We thereby add to the literature suggesting that the economy, a phenomenon over which we collectively exercise at least some control, affects population health. Our findings imply that the effect arises via natural selection – a mechanism we largely ignore when attempting to explain, or alter, how collective choice affects our biology.

Emerging theory and empirical work suggest that the ‘Bruce Effect’, or the increase in spontaneous abortion observed in non-human species when environments become threatening to offspring survival, may also appear in humans. We argue that, if it does, the effect would appear in the odds of twins among male and female live births. We test the hypothesis, implied by our argument, that the odds of a twin among male infants in Norway fell below, while those among females rose above, expected levels among birth cohorts in gestation in July 2011 when a deranged man murdered 77 Norwegians, including many youths. Results support the hypothesis and imply that the Bruce Effect operates in women to autonomically raise the standard of fetal fitness necessary to extend the gestation of twins. This circumstance has implications for using twins to estimate the relative contributions of genes and environment to human responses to exogenous stimuli. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: Much medical literature attributes persistently high rates of very low birthweight (VLBW) to “dysregulated” gestation. We offer the alternative view that natural selection conserved well-regulated, though nonconscious, decisional biology that protects the reproductive fitness of women by spontaneously aborting gestations that would otherwise yield frail infants, particularly small males. Modern obstetric practice, however, converts some fraction of these erstwhile spontaneous abortions into live births of very small infants. We further propose that the nonconscious decisional biology of gestation exhibits preferences also seen in consciously made decisions. We hypothesize that the incidence of VLBW among male infants should vary with the population's self-reported intentions to assume financial risk. We apply time-series modeling to monthly birth counts by sex and weight from the Swedish Medical Birth Registry between January 1993 and December 2010. We gauge risk aversion with monthly data from the Micro Index of the Swedish Consumer Tendency Survey (MISCT). Consistent with our argument that nonconscious decisional biology shares risk aversion with conscious decisions, we find that the incidence of VLBW among male infants in Sweden varies with the population's self-reported intentions to assume financial risk. We find increases above expected odds of a very low weight infant among males born 1 month after increases above expected levels of self-reported risk aversion in the Swedish population. We offer this finding as support for the argument that persistently high rates of VLBW arise, at least in part, from a combination of medical interventions and mechanisms conserved by natural selection to protect reproductive fitness. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Evolutionary theory, when coupled with research from epidemiology, demography, and population endocrinology, suggests that contracting economies affect the fitness and health of human populations via natural selection in utero. We know, for example, that fetal death increases more among males than females when the economy unexpectedly contracts; that unexpected economic contraction predicts low secondary sex ratios; and that males from low sex ratio birth cohorts live, on average, longer than those from high sex ratio cohorts. We also know that low levels of human chorionic gonadotropin (i.e., hCG) measured in the serum of pregnant women predict fetal death. We do not, however, know whether male survivors of conception cohorts subjected to contracting economies exhibit, as theory predicts, higher hCG than those from other cohorts. We show, in 71 monthly conception cohorts including nearly two million California births, that they do. We thereby add to the literature suggesting that the economy, a phenomenon over which we collectively exercise at least some control, affects population health. Our findings imply that the effect arises via natural selection - a mechanism we largely ignore when attempting to explain, or alter, how collective choice affects our biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The literature offering evolutionary explanations of the male longevity deficit does not address temporal variation in the deficit. This circumstance appears attributable to the fact that natural selection intuitively explains the deficit’s pervasive and persistent nature, while social processes more parsimoniously explain its temporal variability. I offer consilience of these perspectives by speculating that selection in utero, a mechanism both conserved by natural selection and affected by social processes, could induce deviations around trend in the male longevity deficit. I describe the mechanism and offer an empirical test of its possible effect among Swedes – a population with the longest continuous record of sex-specific longevity in annual birth cohorts. I replicate the test with data from England and Wales. Results support the hypothesis that selection in utero against less fit males may explain part of the difference in longevity between males and females in modern populations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Theory suggests that natural selection conserved reactivity in part because highly reactive women spontaneously abort less fit conceptuses, particularly small males. Other literature argues that high reactivity manifests clinically as anxiety disorders. If true, births to women diagnosed with anxiety disorders should exhibit a low secondary sex ratio (i.e. ratio of male to female births). We explored whether births to women diagnosed with anxiety disorders exhibit a lower sex ratio than births to women diagnosed with other psychiatric disorders, or to women without mental health diagnoses.Methods: We performed a case-control comparison of the secondary sex ratios among groups of women categorized by mental health diagnosis using birth records linked to data from California County Mental Health system records. We compared sex ratios among 5994 deliveries to mothers diagnosed with anxiety disorders, 23 443 deliveries to mothers diagnosed with other psychiatric disorders and 1 099 198 'comparison' births.Results: Although comparison births exhibited a higher sex ratio than births to women diagnosed with anxiety disorders or with other diagnoses, differences were not statistically significant. Births to African American women diagnosed with anxiety disorders, however, exhibited sex ratios significantly lower than comparison births among African Americans (OR = 0.89, P = 0.038) or births to African American women with other mental health diagnoses (OR = 0.88, P = 0.042).Conclusions: We found that infants born to African American women diagnosed with anxiety disorders exhibited a significantly lower secondary sex ratio than reference groups. We urge confirmatory tests of our findings and discuss implications of the reactivity/anxiety hypothesis for psychiatry, obstetrics and public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Male twin gestations exhibit higher incidence of fetal morbidity and mortality than singleton gestations. From an evolutionary perspective, the relatively high rates of infant and child mortality among male twins born into threatening environments reduce the fitness of these gestations, making them more vulnerable to fetal loss. Women do not perceive choosing to spontaneously abort gestations although the outcome may result from estimates, made without awareness, of the risks of continuing a pregnancy. Here, we examine whether the non-conscious decisional biology of gestation can be linked to conscious risk aversion. We test this speculation by measuring the association between household surveys in Sweden that gauge financial risk aversion in the population and the frequency of twins among live male births. We used time-series regression methods to estimate our suspected associations and Box-Jenkins modeling to ensure that autocorrelation did not confound the estimation or reduce its efficiency. We found, consistent with theory, that financial risk aversion in the population correlates inversely with the odds of a twin among Swedish males born two months later. The odds of a twin among males fell by approximately 3.5% two months after unexpectedly great risk aversion in the population. This work implies that shocks that affect population risk aversion carry implications for fetal loss in vulnerable twin pregnancies.