1. Increased extreme coastal water levels due to the combined action of storm surges and wind waves
- Author
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Marta Marcos, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Angel Amores, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jeremy Rohmer, European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Marcos M., Rohmer J., Vousdoukas M.I., Mentaschi L., Le Cozannet G., Amores A., Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avancats (IMEDEA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC)-Universidad de las Islas Baleares (UIB), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), and University of the Aegean
- Subjects
PROBABILITIES ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,HURRICANE WAVES ,[SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] ,Coastal flooding ,Storm surge ,sea level extreme ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,sea level extremes ,SETUP ,Wind wave ,storm surge ,compound events ,14. Life underwater ,Coastal flood ,SEA LEVELS ,RAINFALL ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,RISK ,compound event ,Global change ,MODEL ,Geophysics ,Oceanography ,Action (philosophy) ,13. Climate action ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Environmental science ,storm surges ,wind waves - Abstract
The dependence between extreme storm surges and wind waves is assessed statistically along the global coasts using the outputs of two numerical models consistently forced with the same atmospheric fields. We show that 55% of the world coastlines face compound storm surge wave extremes. Hence, for a given level of probability, neglecting these dependencies leads to underestimating extreme coastal water levels. Dependencies are dominant in midlatitudes and are likely underestimated in the tropics due to limited representation of tropical cyclones. Furthermore, we show that in half of the areas with dependence, the estimated probability of occurrence of coastal extreme water levels increases significantly when it is accounted for. Translated in terms of return periods, this means that along 30% of global coastlines, extreme water levels expected at most once in a century without considering dependence between storm surges and waves become a 1 in 50-year event., This study was supported by the ERA4CS INSeaPTION project (grants 690462 and PCIN‐2017‐038).
- Published
- 2019
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