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Understanding and modelling insect pest dispersal is an important prerequisite for designing integrated pest management programs. Nevertheless, studies investigating the dispersal of small insects in natural conditions remain scarce mainly because of the difficulty of tracking the movements of these organisms. Here we propose to use Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling (HBM) framework to gain knowledge on hidden processes that cannot be observed directly in natura, such as insect landing and insect mortality, through the definition of latent variables. An HBM describing crop colonization by winged aphids was fitted to a large dataset of field observations issued from a long term survey at a wide scale of both aerial and field densities of the bird cherry-oat aphid Rhopalosiphum padi. This study provides the first evidence that suction trap data are reliable proxies of aphid colonizing rates in cereal fields in autumn and can be a nice alternative to the very time-consuming crop sampling. The proportion of winged aphids landing in cereal fields is shown to vary between regions according to the degree of investment of local R. padi population in sexual reproduction. Results also indicate that under autumnal field conditions, less than 5% of winged aphids survive more than 10 days after landing. This HBM provides the basis of a predictive model for aphid crop colonization that fully accounts for all sources of uncertainty. It should be of great value to improve the trust of users in any decision making systems.

International audience; Only few studies are available dealing with the relation between winter host density and spatial distribution and spring colonization of winter cereals by the host-alternating cereal aphid species Rhopalosiphum padi and Metopolophium dirhodum. Large-scale studies in climatically different agroecosystems in Germany from 2004 to 2006 revealed for R.padi and M.dirhodum larger spring/summer populations in landscapes with higher densities of winter hosts. A small-scale study was performed in winter wheat fields adjacent to a large hedge with several typical winter hosts plants, bird cherry (Prunus padus) and wild rose species (Rosa spp.) to indentify distance effects (08, 824 and 2460 m). Weekly measurements of aphid density between May to July showed significantly higher densities of R.padi compared with those of other aphids. Statistical analysis (TukeyKramer test and regression analyses) revealed significant gradients from the hedge to the field centre for R.padi and M.dirhodum. In comparative studies, winged R.padi from winter and adjacent summer hosts were genotyped using four microsatellite markers. The results showed that individuals from a certain winter host were not genetically similar with individuals from neighbouring summer hosts; it, therefore, seems that winter host clones did not significantly contribute to population built-up in cereal fields over short distances. It could be concluded that on a regional scale, the density of sources for early migrants of R.padi is important for colonization intensity of surrounding summer hosts, but that the high local movement intensity and the relative small proportion of aphids that could be analysed in such tracking studies are blurring close spatial relations within short time periods.