1. Strategies to convert hospital beds for COVID-19 patients to minimize emergency department overcrowding.
- Author
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Nattino, Giovanni, Paganuzzi, Marco Maria, Ghilardi, Giulia Irene, Costantino, Giorgio, Rossi, Carlotta, Cortellaro, Francesca, Cosentini, Roberto, Paglia, Stefano, Migliori, Maurizio, and Bertolini, Guido
- Subjects
HOSPITAL utilization ,POISSON distribution ,COMPUTER simulation ,PATIENTS ,HOSPITAL building design & construction ,RESEARCH funding ,PREDICTION models ,HOSPITAL admission & discharge ,SCIENTIFIC observation ,HOSPITAL care ,HOSPITAL emergency services ,RETROSPECTIVE studies ,REVERSE transcriptase polymerase chain reaction ,DESCRIPTIVE statistics ,CROWDS ,DATA analysis software ,COVID-19 ,REGRESSION analysis - Abstract
Background: The shortage of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients has been one critical cause of Emergency Department (ED) overcrowding. Purpose: We aimed at elaborating a strategy of conversion of hospital beds, from non-COVID-19 to COVID-19 care, minimizing both ED overcrowding and the number of beds eventually converted. Research Design: Observational retrospective study. Study Sample: We considered the centralized database of all ED admissions in the Lombardy region of Italy during the second "COVID-19 wave" (October to December 2020). Data collection and Analysis: We analyzed all admissions to 82 EDs. We devised a family of Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the performance of hospital beds' conversion strategies triggered by ED crowding of COVID-19 patients, determining a critical number of beds to be converted when passing an ED-specific crowding threshold. Results: Our results suggest that the maximum number of patients waiting for hospitalization could have been decreased by 70% with the proposed strategy. Such a reduction would have been achieved by converting 30% more hospital beds than the total number converted in the region. Conclusions: The disproportion between reduction in ED crowding and additionally converted beds suggests that a wide margin to improve the efficiency of the conversions exists. The proposed simulation apparatus can be easily generalized to study management policies synchronizing ED output and in-hospital bed availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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