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The paper deals with the performance of former Yugoslav countries during the Great Recession. It compares the performance of peripheral countries (Slovenia and Croatia) with those of superperipheral countries (Bosnia, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia). The focus of the analysis is the four channels of crisis transmission and amplification: the capital surge as the external channel on the one hand, and the financial accelerator, the banking credit extension, and liquidity as internal channels on the other. While the external channel drove the dynamics of the crisis, the internal channels amplified, broadened, and prolonged its drastic economic consequences. The paper depicts the trajectory of the consequences of the Great Recession for both peripheral and super-peripheral countries. It shows that, regarding financial stability, peripheral countries outperformed superperipheral countries in the boom phase, but not in the bust and recovery phases. The crucial factor influencing such a deterioration of peripheral countries’ financial stability was the policy measures enforced by the European Commission and ECB, calibrated to the needs of the largest and strongest economies of the euro area, while neglecting the asymmetric dynamics of European economies in the bust and recovery phases. The paper concludes with a warning that something similar could happen in the present crisis triggered by the Covid-19 virus.

Potencijalni ulazak Hrvatske u eurozonu mogao bi imati visoke ili niske troškove, ovisno o tome jesu li poslovni ciklusi u Hrvatskoj usklađeni s onima u eurozoni. U radu se analiziraju hrvatski poslovni ciklusi s tri aspekta. Prvo, uspoređuju se rezultati različitih metoda filtriranja BDP-a kako bi se izdvojila trend i ciklička komponenta za analizu poslovnih ciklusa. Uz standardni Hodrick i Prescott (1997.) filter koristi se i recentni Hamiltonov (2017.) filter te se uspoređuju njihova svojstva. Hamiltonov (2017.) filter pokazuje mnogo bolja svojstva pri izračunu cikličke komponente u stvarnom vremenu. U radu se analizira i asimetričnost hrvatskog poslovnog ciklusa pretpostavljajući da su recesije kratke i duboke, dok su ekspanzije dugotrajne i plitke. Drugo, analiziraju se varijable koje vode i zaostaju u odnosu na BDP. Vodeće varijable imaju važnu ulogu u prognoziranju BDP-a, a u radu se poseban naglasak stavlja na inozemne varijable jer je Hrvatska iznimno osjetljiva na inozemne šokove. BDP Europske unije, eurozone, Italije i Slovenije vodeće su varijable u odnosu na hrvatski BDP. Također, izdane građevinske dozvole i dolasci stranih turista vode u odnosu na BDP. Treće, u radu se analizira usklađenost poslovnih ciklusa u Europskoj uniji s aspekta BDP-a i nezaposlenosti. Razdoblje od 2001. do 2005. godine karakterizira niska usklađenost poslovnih ciklusa u EU, dok su od 2006. do 2010. poslovni ciklusi izrazito usklađeni. S početkom dužničke krize 2011. razina usklađenosti se smanjuje te počinje jačati tek od 2015. godine. Hrvatski poslovni ciklusi usklađeni su sa zemljama EU-a od 2004. i ta je veza prilično stabilna.

Spomin na 16. september 2008, ko je investicijska banka Lehman Brothers razglasila stečaj in kateremu je sledila velika recesija oziroma ˝Great Recession,˝ je še živ. Vendar smo tekom pregleda in analize posameznih hujših recesij in depresij v Združenih državah v preteklih dveh stoletjih ugotovili, da so se podobne zadeve dogajale tudi dvesto let nazaj. Že na podlagi tega menimo, da ta recesija ni bila odročen primer, temveč le del ponavljajočega se gospodarskega cikla. V preteklosti, predvsem v 19. stoletju, so recesije in depresije imele drugačen naziv, in sicer finančna panika. To je sovpadalo z ravnanjem posameznikov, ko so panično hiteli na banko, da bi dvignili svoj denar. Takšen tipičen primer je bila panika leta 1929, ko so posamezniki hiteli na borzo, da bi čim hitreje prodali delnice, dokler so bile še nekaj vredne. Že od pojava prve velike depresije v Združenih državah leta 1819 lahko opazimo podobna ravnanja vlagateljev, ki so želeli dvigniti svoje depozite, preden je bilo prepozno. Tako se je ta trend tekom 19. in kasneje tudi 20. stoletja samo stopnjeval, ko so panike postajale vedno hujše. Že od ustanovitve Združenih držav so se pojavljali posamezniki, ki so hoteli hitro obogateti z raznimi goljufijami. Ti ˝špekulatorji˝ so iskali vedno nove možnosti, da bi prišli do velikih dobičkov. Tukaj imamo v mislih predvsem špekulacije z zemljišči in železniške špekulacije, ki so zaznamovale ameriško gospodarstvo predvsem v 19. stoletju. Glavni namen le–teh je bil povzročitev rasti cen, na podlagi katerih so ˝špekulatorji˝ ustvarjali velike dobičke. Ko pa je finančni mehurček počil, so cene začele padati. Takšne prakse so postajale vse bolj popularne, saj so obljubljale velike dobičke posameznikom. Vendar posledic niso občutili samo vlagatelji, temveč vsi ostali, ki so slepo verjeli, da bodo lahko hitro obogateli. The Memory of the 16th of september 2008, when the investment bank Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, which was folowed by a subsequent recession, called The Great Recession, stil lives among us. Howewer, during our analasys and examination of the most severe recessions and depressions in the United States during the past two centuries, we came to a conclusion that the same things happend almost two hundred years ago. On this basis we believe that this recent recession wasn´t an isolated case, instead it was a part of recurring business cycle. In the past, especially in the 19th century,depressions and recessions had a different name. They were called financial panics. This coincided with the behaviour of individuals when they rushed panicky to the bank to withdraw their deposits. The same thing happend in the panic of 1929, when individuals rushed to the stock market and tried to sell the stocks as quickly as possible, while there were still some dollar signs attached to them. Since the occurance of the first major depression in the United States in 1819, we can notice the same actions taken by investors, who tried to withdraw their deposits before it was to late. This trend only escalated during the 19th and the 20th century, when panics became more and more severe. Since the creation of The United States, there have been a lot of individuals, who were trying to get richer and richer via different frauds. These speculators were always seeking new possibilities to aquire loads of new capital. Here we have in mind land and railroad speculation, which characterised the United States economy during the 19th century. The main purpose of these schemes was to inflate the prices. Based on those prices, speculators would reap the benefits of their schemes. But, when the financial bubble bursted, those prices started to drop. These practices where becoming more and more popular, because they promised huge profits to individuals. In the end, the consequences were felt by not just investers, but by others who followed their own blind belief that they would become rich quick.