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In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, government debt has surged to unprecedented levels in most countries, including those of North Africa. In this study, we investigate the issue of public debt sustainability in four North African countries (Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia). The Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) results show that Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia have experienced periods of explosive public debt during the studied period. The identified episodes of explosive debt behavior can be seen as periods of unsustainable fiscal policy. Moreover, the Quantile Auto-Regressive (QAR) unit root results point to strong debt sustainability at the lower quantiles for the selected countries, while at the middle and upper quantiles, public debt exhibits an unsustainable dynamic. This finding, therefore, points to weak sustainability of debt and fiscal policies in Algeria, Morocco, Libya, and Tunisia. This paper provides further evidence that fiscal policies have become more unsustainable than sustainable in recent years in these countries. Consequently, fiscal policymakers in MENA countries should not overlook the unsustainability of public debt and its various effects when developing any strategy aimed at stimulating the economy through ever larger debt levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the tourism markets' convergence hypothesis across South Korea's major source markets. In doing so, we use monthly data of visitor arrivals over the period July 1995 to June 2019 and adopt a novel quantile unit root tests that allows for multiple structural breaks via a Fourier expansion series. Our results indicate that seven countries out of 10 show firm convergence tendencies at most of the quantiles, and two countries have weak but significant converging trends at some quantiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solving the unemployment hysteresis puzzle is vital to government policies, since the structural or cyclical nature of the problem constitutes the direction of the policies to be implemented. This study aims to provide new findings by examining the unemployment hysteresis puzzle for emerging markets from an asymmetric perspective. This study conducts a comprehensive analysis using both conventional and quantile unit root tests. We focus on the Fourier non-linear quantile unit root test, which considers heavy-tailed (non-normal) distributions, structural shifts, non-linearity, and asymmetric adjustment simultaneously. The results indicate that in the Dickey and Fuller test and its extensions, while the null hypothesis of the unit root is rejected in 33% of emerging markets, this rate increases to 55% in quantile Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests and dramatically to 72% in Fourier non-linear quantile unit root test. These findings provide fresh evidence for solving the unemployment hysteresis puzzle in emerging markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satınalma gücü paritesi, döviz kuru belirleme teorileri arasında en eski ve en tartışmalı yaklaşımlardan biridir. Bu çalışma, satınalma gücü paritesinin uzun dönemli geçerliliğini 36 OECD ülkesi için Fourier kantil birim kök testi ile incelenmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analizler 1993:1-2018:8 aylık dönemleri kapsamaktadır. Fourier kantil birim kök testi sonuçları, 24 OECD ülkesi için satınalma gücü paritesinin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu durum, söz konusu 24 OECD ülkesinde yer alan döviz kurlarının nispi fiyat değişikliklerine uyum sağladığını ve satınalma gücü paritesi teorisinin bu ülkeler için güvenilir bir döviz kuru belirleme aracı olarak kullanılabileceğini ifade etmektedir.

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the stochastic convergence of the per capita CO2 emissions among the top four crude oil exporter countries, namely, Canada, Iraq, Russia and Saudi Arabia, from 1960 to 2017. Assessing the stationarity and unit root properties of the environmental series in these countries is important as their large fossil fuel resources increases the potential for rising CO2 emissions compared to other countries. Design/methodology/approach: In addition to implementing the conventional unit root tests, the authors also benefit from the application of three nonlinear unit root tests, namely, wavelet unit root test, nonlinear unit root test of Güriş (2019) and the Fourier quantile unit root test. These methods are robust to the presence of possible structural breaks and other forms of nonlinearities, while the wavelet unit root test enables us to examine the stochastic behavior of the variables in both time and frequency domains. Hence, they all provide more reliable inferences on the convergences of the CO2 emissions compared to their standard competitors. Findings: The standard unit root test results show strong evidence in favor of non-stationarity in all countries. This conclusion supports the results of the other nonlinear unit root tests and the overall findings of the Fourier quantile unit root test. The wavelet unit root test provides a controversial finding. However, due to its limitations, its findings must be interpreted with caution. The details of the Fourier quantile unit root test indicate that per capita CO2 emissions follow mean-reverting properties in middle quantile ranges for Canada, Russia and Iraq. This validates the asymmetric behaviors of per capita CO2 emissions in these countries. Originality/value: The novelty of the work can be stated in two ways. First, among the available studies, this is the first paper to emphasize the importance of examining the convergence of per capita CO2 emissions among the top four oil exporters. Second, to the best of the knowledge, no study has yet been undertaken in which all these methods have been simultaneously applied. Sustainable environmental policies depend heavily on the CO2 series' properties. Thus, the findings can provide significant environmental and economic implications for policymakers to construct feasible and optimal policies in climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies asymmetric dynamics of real GDP growth by estimating linear and nonlinear quantile persistence over different parts of the conditional distribution for six major developed economies. Several novel quantile-based hypotheses are motivated in this paper and tested for the steepness asymmetry of real GDP growth that hypothesizes that contractions are steeper than expansions. The empirical results show that quantile persistence is generally high at far lower tails, thus requiring much longer half-lives to reverting negative deviations to the mean of real GDP growth and hence leading to gradual economic recoveries. By contrast, less persistence in far upper tails tends to generate sharp and short economic downturns that adjust positive deviations towards the mean of real GDP growth so as to cause abrupt economic recessions. In particular, this asymmetry in quantile persistence strongly supports the steepness asymmetry conjecture, robust to the presence of structural breaks and potential nonlinearities in real GDP growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We test the PPP hypothesis in 29 African countries using a newly developed nonlinear Quantile unit root test with a Fourier function which accounts for smooth breaks. Simulation indicates that the proposed new test has higher power than the conventional Quantile unit root test as proposed by Koneker and Xiao (2004). Our empirical results provide support for the PPP hypothesis in 21 out of 29 African countries, a unique discovery using their real effective exchange rates. It appears that incorporating Fourier function to nonlinear Quantile unit root test gets us closer and closer to solving the PPP puzzle in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyses the long-run validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) between Turkey and its major trading partners (China, Euro Area, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States) by using the Fourier quantile unit root test. Fourier quantile unit root test results show that PPP is valid for all countries. Additionally, the Fourier quantile unit root test presents more evidence in favour of the PPP hypothesis in comparison to conventional and other Fourier-type unit root tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

G7 countries and China are considered not only the biggest energy producers globally but also the largest CO2 emission groups of countries among the world. In this study, we apply the Fourier quantile unit root test to investigate whether CO2 emissions converge in China and G7 countries using per capita CO2 emissions data over 1950–2013. While traditional unit root test results indicate that per capita CO2 emissions do not converge among these G7 countries and China, empirical results from the Fourier quantile unit root test point out that the CO2 emissions did converge in Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. Although the results of this study do not find strong CO2 emission convergence in the other five countries (i.e., Canada, France, Japan, the United States, and China), the CO2 emissions did converge in certain quantiles for these five countries. Our empirical results have important policy implications for the governments of G7 countries and China to implement the effective energy policy to reduce the CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply a Quantile unit root test with both Sharp Shifts and Smooth Breaks to revisit hysteresis in unemployment for G7 countries using data for the period 1980–2017. Results from the conventional unit root tests indicate that hysteresis in unemployment does hold in half of these G7 countries during the period 1980–2017. A quantile Kolmogorov–Smirnov test fails to reject hysteresis in the unemployment hypothesis for our quarterly data but not in monthly data in G7 countries. Empirical results from our proposed quantile unit root test considering both sharp shifts and smooth breaks indicate that hysteresis in unemployment can be rejected over certain quantiles. A quantile Kolmogorov–Smirnov test results demonstrating hysteresis in unemployment does not hold in G7 countries for both monthly and quarterly data. These empirical findings have important policy implications in G7 countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In this paper we revisit the convergence hypothesis among OECD countries. Unlike previous research which relied upon conventional unit root tests to determine if per capita real income in each country converge toward the real per capita income of a benchmark level, we employ recently introduced quantile unit root testing procedure which also accounts for multiple and unknown structural breaks via a Fourier expansion series. Our results indicate that the negative shocks due to World wars I and II and/or financial crises have transitory effects in countries such as Japan and Germany, while in other countries like Italy and France they have permanent effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Figuring out the convergence and persistence of per capita CO2 emissions matters much for environmental policy makers in both developed and developing countries. The Kyoto Protocol aims at avoiding threat from climate warming for human beings. CO2 emissions have been viewed as the main cause of climate change in recent decades. Thus, loads of empirical studies contribute to investigate the convergence of per capita CO2 emissions by implementing various econometric models including as many sample countries as possible. By applying a battery of univariate unit root tests, quantile unit root test, and a newly developed quantile unit root test with Fourier function, we re-investigate the convergence, mean-reverting properties and asymmetric behavior of per capita CO2 emissions in 21 OECD countries. The findings show that per capita CO2 emissions of Austria, Finland, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the US perform converging as a whole from the perspective of the FQKS statistics. Besides, mean-reverting properties are identified for Austria, Finland, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the US when economy is in recession. Finally, asymmetric behaviors of per capita CO2 emissions are detected at selected quantiles. All of the results provide impressive environmental economic implications for policy makers. Highlights • The purpose was to re-investigate the convergence of per capita CO2 emissions. • Results show differences among countries. • Convergence only 9 of 21 OECD countries. • Asymmetric behaviours at selected quantiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional unit root tests have mostly failed to validate the PPP. Quantile-based unit root tests by previous research have provided some support for the PPP. In this article, we take an additional step and incorporate sharp shifts and smooth breaks into the quantile-based unit root test and re-examine the PPP in each of the 34 OECD countries over the period 1994:01–2016:03. We find support for the PPP in 18 countries of Austria, Chile, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study revisits whether CO2 emissions converge in G18 countries over the period of 1950-2013. To work on this empirical analysis, we employ a more powerful quantile unit root test with per capita CO2 emissions. While conventional unit root tests fail to reject convergence in CO2 emissions in these G18 countries, quantile unit root test results demonstrate CO2 emissions converged in 5 of these G18 countries (i.e., Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, and India). Our empirical results have important policy implications for the governments of G18 countries to direct efficient and effective energy policies to reduce the CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the legitimacy of the Purchasing Power Parity condition applied to the quantile process for 12 oil‐exporting countries: Algeria, Angola, Canada, Colombia, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, and Russia. The application of quantile unit root inference methods to test the specification of the PPP condition in the quantile process yields limited support to the equilibrium condition. However, the application of quantile cointegration methods that estimate the equilibrium relationship between national prices and the nominal exchange rate is much more supportive of a generalized PPP condition that varies across countries and quantiles. Our empirical findings suggest that the distribution of the nominal exchange rate reflects a nonlinear equilibrium relationship between national prices that varies widely between the central and tail quantiles and is country‐specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies recently developed Fourier quantile unit root test to investigate timeseries property of inflation in seven Eastern European countries. Thismethod combines the quantile unit root test with smooth unknown multiple breaks through Fourier function, and has good size and power when the data follows heavy tailed distribution. Our results showthat the inflation rates are stationary within each quantile for Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Lithuania, while the other four countries contain a unit root within some quantiles. We also find the speed of inflation adjustment towards to its long-run equilibrium for each country is asymmetric. Our results have important policy implications for monetary authorities in these Eastern European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Prebisch–Singer hypothesis in economics asserts that over time the relative price of primary goods relative to manufactured goods should experience a downward trend. To test the hypothesis, we must first establish the unit root properties of the relative price term and then regress the stationary series on a trend term. We use the quantile unit root test which allows for both smooth unknown numbers and the form of breaks in the trend function through a Fourier function to show that the relative price of 23 out of 24 primary goods is stationary. However, the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis is supported only in half of the primary commodities. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this study, we apply the Quantile unit root test and revisit the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in 20 African countries using real effective exchange rates over the period 1971Q1 to 2012Q4. While traditional unit root tests fail to reject unit root hypothesis in most of the countries, results from Quantile unit root test reject unit root null hypothesis in Ghana, Mauritius, Niger, South Africa, and Togo, providing support for the PPP at least in these five countries. We further estimate the half-life based on Quantile autoregressive (QAR) model to be about 4.57-7.96 quarters (1-2 year). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article looks at the potential of quantile unit root tests in assessment of purchasing power parity in 7 Eastern European nations. Topics discussed include countries covered in the study from 1998 to 2015 like Bulgaria, Russia and Czech Republic, benefits of quantile unit root tests, and effects of European Union-like trade polices towards the purchasing power parity of Eastern European countries.

This study applies nonlinear quantile unit root test with Fourier function to test the validity of long-run uncovered interest parity (UIP) to assess the non-stationary properties of the interest differentials convergence for ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We find that our approximation has higher power to detect U-shaped breaks and smooth breaks than linear method if the true data generating process of risk premium convergence is in fact a stationary non-liner process. We examine the validity of UIP from the non-linear point of view and provide robust evidence clearly indicate that UIP holds true for six CEE countries. Our findings point out the risk premium adjustments of the six CEE countries are mean reversion towards UIP equilibrium values in a non-linear way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies the real interest rate parity (RIP) for several Asian countries. This is done by examining the stationarity in the real interest rate differentials (rids) with respect to the US using the quantile unit root test. Our results show that rids exhibits unit-root behaviours in the lower quantile levels, and mean reversion in the upper quantile levels. Furthermore, large positive shocks tend to induce strong mean reversion and the adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium level is faster as rids gets larger, with shorter half-lives in the extreme quantile levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Application of six different univariate unit root tests to real effective exchange rates of 23 OECD countries supports their stationarity or Purchasing Power Parity theory (PPP) only in five countries, a result consistent with previous research that is known as PPP puzzle. However, descriptive statistics of each effective rate reveals a clear sign of non-normal distribution. To account for this, we use quantile unit root test which allows impact of different shocks to be realized at different quantiles. When we applied this new test to the same rates, number of countries in which PPP is supported increased to 16. Apparently, incorporating effects of shocks improves testing efficiency and provides more support for the PPP and reduces the severity of the puzzle. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

[Display omitted] • Four broad classes of financial assets analysed: equity indexes, precious metals, 10-year benchmark bonds and cryptocurrencies. • Strong potential for mean reversion in equity markets even at high levels of shocks. • Gold offers limited mean reversion, while platinum shows very strong resistance to the COVID-19; • Government bonds show small declines in value to the COVID in addition to high persistence. • Cryptocurrencies, as a group, turn out to be the riskiest in the long-term, with more than a 50% decline in value coupled with high degrees of persistence. This paper examines and compares financial market reaction and recovery of four broad classes of financial assets – equity indexes, precious metals, 10-year benchmark bonds and cryptocurrencies, to the COVID-19 pandemic. The data set comprises daily observations of close prices in the selected markets from 17-04-2018 to 20-06-2021. Using the Yang and Zhao (2020) and Koenker and Xiao (2004) quantile unit-root tests for return persistence, we find heterogeneity in reactions and recovery patterns not only across asset classes, but also within them. Specifically, we find strong potential for mean reversion in equity markets even at high levels of shocks. While gold offers limited mean reversion, platinum shows very strong resistance to the COVID. Government bonds show small declines in value to the COVID in addition to high persistence. Cryptocurrencies, as a group, turn out to be the riskiest in the long-term, with more than a 50% decline in value coupled with high degrees of persistence. Our results raise questions as to the safe haven characteristics of the newly-popular Bitcoin. Our findings are useful for policy makers and investors through a better understanding of differences in the potential for mean reversion provided by different asset classes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the third-largest SO2 emitter in the world, China is facing mounting domestic and external pressure to tackle the increasingly serious SO2 pollution. Figuring out the convergence and persistence of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions matters much for environmental policymakers in China. This study mainly utilizes the Fourier quantile unit root test to survey the convergence of the SO2 emissions per capita in 74 cities of China during the period of December 2014 to June 2019, by conducting five traditional unit root tests and a quantile root unit test as a comparative analysis. The empirical results indicate that the SO2 emissions per capita in 72 out of 74 cities in China are convergent in the sample period. The results also suggest that the unit root behavior of the SO2 emissions per capita in these cities is asymmetrically persistent at different quantiles. For the cities with the convergent SO2 emissions, the government should consider the asymmetric mean-reverting pattern of SO2 emissions when implementing environmental protection policies at different stages. For Hefei and Nanjing, the local governments need to enact stricter environmental protection policies to control the emission of sulfur dioxide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]