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This article introduces the concept of bundle as a new powerful tool in the study of party reforms. The intensive and intricate nature of the engineering political parties undertake to preserve the status quo amidst a challenging environment tends to be obscured by the focus on their so-called 'conservative nature'. Applied to the process tracing of a large sequence of reforms implemented by the Belgian French-speaking liberal party (MR) between 2019 and 2022, the bundle concept provides the opportunity to go beyond the narrow vision of party reforms only defined and empirically studied so far through their type, size and success. I triangulate a variety of sources to uncover mechanisms through which a handful of key party actors - as powerful steering agents - perceive and translate environmental factors into specific reforms. The bundle analysis brings notably to light a key sequencing mechanism – a snowball effect – explaining how the sequence actually unfolded and fed on itself, challenging our hitherto accepted understanding of party engineering. This study also offers a transferable conceptual framework with valuable insights for wider use in the field, providing an avenue for theory building through causal analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By differentiating radicalisation as a process from radicalism as a movement, this situated study examines the Spanish youth group Hogar Social's framework and core action through the analytical method of process-tracing. To contextualise their radicalisation process, it considers both the inspiration that it found in other similar European radicalised groups, in particular the neo-Nazi group Casa Pound in Italy, and the socio-economic and political context of its setting, through an account of the major events accompanying its formation. To explore their enacted strategies and goals, it investigates Hogar Social's most relevant narratives and performances since its emergence in 2014. An inquiry of their public statements and appearances focuses on both logics and reasons at the root of their radicalisation – and how they engage with their audience – vis-à-vis the radicalism that also exists in Spain. In such a light, this work contributes to understanding how oppositional interests of us versus them are used, and illustrates the role that prejudice plays in the radicalisation of youth. It thence allows to thoroughly ponder the double face of prejudice, whose consequences can be politically used as scapegoating moves to capitalise on people's unease in radicalisation processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Climate scientists are warning policymakers across the globe that climate change, biodiversity loss and declining ocean health are leading to the collapse of critical ecosystems. Together with the United Nations (UN), they are calling on nations to immediately transition their economies in a sustainable direction. Moreover, in the eyes of scientists as well as the UN, shifting to sustainable development will invariably lead to improvements in social development and human health. Focusing on the Caribbean, which comprises one of 36 global hotspots, this study hypothesizes that higher levels of intentional economic/regulatory policy development, will showcase stronger sustainability results across the SDGs that deal with climate change, ocean health and biodiversity loss (SDGs 13–15). Utilizing Cuba, the Dominican Republic (DR) and Jamaica as test cases, this study employs the process-tracing method to analyze major national planning documents to assess each nation’s approach towards sustainability, in response to major UN initiatives during the MDG and SDG-eras. Afterwards, various quantitative assessment instruments are utilized to measure the sustainability progress of each nation. Overall, there is modest evidence that Cuba deployed the highest levels of regulation and enjoyed the greatest sustainability gains and scores, relatively to DR and Jamaica. As far as the DR, with low levels of regulation, and Jamaica, with moderate levels, the picture was mixed with recent data suggesting that Jamaica may be beginning to outgain the DR. As such, the results of this study give modest support to those who believe strong levels of state intervention are necessary to achieve sustainable development.

This paper bridges literature on political parties and organizational studies by providing a new theoretical lens on political party developments. There has been growing scholarly interest in populist parties and the issues that serve as the raison d'être for their political platform. While the literature has been preoccupied with the journey of the anti‐hero rising to power, less has been written about the organization of the party once it has transcended to political influence. Likewise, whereas organizational birthmarks and imprinting have been integral concepts in the study of organizations, there has been little permeation of the concepts into the study of political parties. The Danish People's Party and Norwegian Progress Party provide two illustrative cases, showing that their original formation and later transformation into the current parties brought with it challenges to their structure and ideology. Our findings show that while an increase in external support to the political party, that is, votes, imprints organizational birthmarks, it is during a decrease in the very same external support that organizational birthmarks are uncovered and challenged. Through process‐tracing and our theoretical model, we identify organizational birthmarks and causal mechanisms in which competing organizational birthmarks create an internal division within the political party. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops and empirically tests the novel concept of ‘decabinetisation’, a type of depoliticisation reform that affects the advisory and support offices of executive politicians. Reforms that restrict and constrain the work of ministerial advisers and reduce the political resources of ministers are puzzling, even more so when pressure to reform ministerial offices is absent. To understand why governments undermine a system that has been put in place to serve them, this paper investigates the provisions of Law 4622/2019 on the Executive State in Greece, using ‘theory-building process-tracing’ based on data collected from government documents and 23 elite interviews. Initially selected as an extreme case of second-order decabinetisation in the absence of pressure to reform, the study morphed into a more typical case that exemplifies how ministerial office reforms can be the result of strategic forms of presidentialisation. Decabinetisation can be triggered by the Prime Minister’s intention to ‘presidentialise’ the core executive in face of centre-of-government dysfunctionalities; policy entrepreneurs couple the problem and politics stream with the decabinetisation policy; but the reform becomes possible only in the presence of a critical juncture during which the power asymmetry between the head of government and other members of government is big. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific discovery concerns finding patterns in data and creating insightful hypotheses that explain these patterns. Traditionally, each step of this process required human ingenuity. But the galloping development of computer chips and advances in artificial intelligence (AI) make it increasingly more feasible to automate some parts of scientific discovery. Understanding human planning is one of the fields in which AI has not yet been utilized. State-of-the-art methods for discovering new planning strategies still rely on manual data analysis. Data about the process of human planning is often used to group similar behaviors together. Researchers then use this data to formulate verbal descriptions of the strategies which might underlie those groups of behaviors. In this work, we leverage AI to automate these two steps of scientific discovery. We introduce a method for automatic discovery and description of human planning strategies from process-tracing data collected with the Mouselab-MDP paradigm. Our method utilizes a new algorithm, called Human-Interpret, that performs imitation learning to describe sequences of planning operations in terms of a procedural formula and then translates that formula to natural language. We test our method on a benchmark data set that researchers have previously scrutinized manually. We find that the descriptions of human planning strategies that we obtain automatically are about as understandable as human-generated descriptions. They also cover a substantial proportion of relevant types of human planning strategies that had been discovered manually. Our method saves scientists' time and effort, as all the reasoning about human planning is done automatically. This might make it feasible to more rapidly scale up the search for yet undiscovered cognitive strategies that people use for planning and decision-making to many new decision environments, populations, tasks, and domains. Given these results, we believe that the presented work may accelerate scientific discovery in psychology, and due to its generality, extend to problems from other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Politische Vierteljahresschrift is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract Numerous initiatives have been developed to monitor the sustainability performance of cities, with rankings and indicators emerging as crucial tools for understanding complex urban phenomena. However, these indices require deeper analytical methods to fully interpret their results. This study highlights the application of Set-Theory methods, specifically Qualitative Comparative Analysis with process-tracing in analyzing the Urban Mobility Readiness Index (UMR) across 60 cities for 2021 and 2022. Our primary achievement is the demonstration of Set-Theory´s ability to unravel the causal complexity in urban dynamics. We find that urban mobility readiness and its negation are not determined by singular conditions but by a combination of conditions. Necessary conditions such as infrastructure and socioeconomic factors have been identified, which are critical for achieving a higher level of readiness in the UMR, and its negation. Cities lacking these conditions are less likely to reach the desired level for sustainable development. Additionally, we reveal that certain conditions serve beyond scope definitions, actively triggering causal mechanisms for both readiness and its negation. This insight underscores the multifaceted nature of urban sustainability, guiding cities towards effective strategies for sustainable development. Our study thus contributes a nuanced understanding of urban mobility, essential for policymakers and urban planners.

Numerous initiatives have been developed to monitor the sustainability performance of cities, with rankings and indicators emerging as crucial tools for understanding complex urban phenomena. However, these indices require deeper analytical methods to fully interpret their results. This study highlights the application of Set-Theory methods, specifically Qualitative Comparative Analysis with process-tracing in analyzing the Urban Mobility Readiness Index (UMR) across 60 cities for 2021 and 2022. Our primary achievement is the demonstration of Set-Theory´s ability to unravel the causal complexity in urban dynamics. We find that urban mobility readiness and its negation are not determined by singular conditions but by a combination of conditions. Necessary conditions such as infrastructure and socioeconomic factors have been identified, which are critical for achieving a higher level of readiness in the UMR, and its negation. Cities lacking these conditions are less likely to reach the desired level for sustainable development. Additionally, we reveal that certain conditions serve beyond scope definitions, actively triggering causal mechanisms for both readiness and its negation. This insight underscores the multifaceted nature of urban sustainability, guiding cities towards effective strategies for sustainable development. Our study thus contributes a nuanced understanding of urban mobility, essential for policymakers and urban planners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Affordable housing that incorporates sustainability goals into its design has the potential to address both health and economic disparities via enhanced energy‐efficiency, structural durability and indoor environmental quality. Despite the potential for these win‐win advances, survey data of U.S. local governments indicate these types of equity investments remain rare. This study explores barriers and pathways to distributional equity via energy‐efficient housing. Using archival city sustainability survey data collected during a period of heightened U.S. federal investment in local government energy‐efficiency programs, we combine machine learning (ML) and process‐tracing approaches for modeling the complex drivers and barriers underlying these decisions. First, we ask, how do characteristics of a city's organizational learning methods—its administrative structure, past experience with housing programs, resources, stakeholder engagement and planning—predict policy commitments to green affordable housing? Using ensemble ML methods, we find that three specific modes of organizational learning—past experience with affordable housing programs, seeking assistance from neighborhood groups and the technical expertise of professional green organizations—are the most impactful features in determining city commitments to constructing green affordable housing. Our second stage uses process‐tracing within a specific case identified by the ML models to determine the ordering of these factors and to provide more nuance on green‐housing policy implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a systematic empirical study of the causal mechanisms of regulatory capture. It applies process‐tracing methods to the Vioxx drug scandal that was widely regarded to be a result of capture. In doing so, this paper provides a robust empirical analysis of regulatory capture lacking in the current literature. The analysis focuses on the role of the UK drug regulator in licensing and monitoring a drug that caused hundreds of thousands of heart attacks before it was taken off the market in 2004. We develop and systemically operationalize three causal mechanisms of capture to study the evidence on regulatory decision‐making on Vioxx. Through explicit theoretical and empirical evaluation of the evidence, we show that the degree of capture through the revolving door, information overload and shared cultural frameworks was limited. By opening the black‐box of empirical capture research, the paper highlights the problematic consequences of (mis‐)diagnosis of regulatory capture by scholars, the media, and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the challenges posed by the fragmentation of habitats and loss of native biodiversity, climate change adaptation and mitigation, diverse agri-environmental measures have been initiated across the European Union (EU) with the aim of fostering agricultural ecosystem service delivery. Previous studies adopting a governance perspective have identified various determinants of successful agri-environmental measures. However, the explanatory value of these studies is limited as the causal processes through which context and scheme design affect implementation success remain grey -boxed. This article uses a mechanism-based approach to uncover the causal processes that underlie actions and interactions within agri-environmental governance arrangements and provides insights into the role the interplay between context and scheme design plays in the successful implementation of agri-environmental measures. The empirical focus is the governance of a successful collective agri-environmental scheme in the Netherlands. In opening the grey box of the causal mechanisms that link contextual and scheme design with their results, the paper applies theory building process tracing methods. Results show that implementation success in the case is explained by the interplay between social learning and trust-building mechanisms. We argue that EU and domestic decision-makers aiming to improve the contribution of agri-environmental measures to climate change adaptation and mitigation must consider the contextual conditions that facilitate increased cooperation between stakeholders and, ultimately, successful implementation of measures. • A mechanism-based approach uncovers the causal processes within agri-environmental governance arrangements. • The the interplay between contexts and scheme design enables implementation success of agri-environmental measures. • Implementation success in the case is explained by an interplay of social learning and trust-building mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Transport policy has regained political relevance in Germany. The successful realization of the Verkehrswende,—the extensive transition toward sustainable transport and mobility—is central to reaching climate neutrality. In 2020, the Federal Government proposed the reform of two key ordinances that have regulated road traffic so far. The amendment was aimed at implementing several provisions at the expense of car drivers and, at the same time, in favor of cyclists and pedestrians. Due to cooperative federalism, the governments of the 16 constituent units (Länder) had to adopt the amendment in the Bundesrat, Germany's second chamber. In the legislative process, however, the reform ultimately failed in its original scope. Using it as a particularly instructive case study, we show how and why party competition and cooperative federalism hamper comprehensive transport policy reforms in Germany. Results: In the German political system, political interests interact within a complex web of cooperative federalism. To understand partisan encroachment on the federal decision-making processes, this paper uses a process-tracing approach. To investigate decision-making in the Bundesrat and its outcomes, the empirical analysis combines qualitative analyses of several publicly available sources. We can empirically demonstrate that political parties influenced legislative procedures. The reform failed in its original scope because the three political parties with veto power in the Bundesrat insisted on their positions and were not willing to agree on a compromise. Conclusions: For the implementation of the Verkehrswende, the German federal system proves to be both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, the institutional design of the Bundesrat constrains extreme positions and helps promote decisions most citizens may agree with. The Länder governments and administrations can also contribute their expertise and local experience to federal legislation via the Bundesrat. On the other hand, veto powers are ubiquitous in the German system of cooperative federalism. Therefore, it is prone to blockades. The actions of the political parties in the Bundesrat have hampered the comprehensive reform of road traffic regulations that was originally envisaged. Policymaking took two steps forward toward implementing the Verkehrswende, only to immediately take one step back again. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most unique and impressive feats of the human mind is its ability to discover and continuously refine its own cognitive strategies. Elucidating the underlying learning and adaptation mechanisms is very difficult because changes in cognitive strategies are not directly observable. One important domain in which strategies and mechanisms are studied is planning. To enable researchers to uncover how people learn how to plan, we offer a tutorial introduction to a recently developed process-tracing paradigm along with a new computational method for measuring the nature and development of a person's planning strategies from the resulting process-tracing data. Our method allows researchers to reveal experience-driven changes in people's choice of individual planning operations, planning strategies, strategy types, and the relative contributions of different decision systems. We validate our method on simulated and empirical data. On simulated data, its inferences about the strategies and the relative influence of different decision systems are accurate. When evaluated on human data generated using our process-tracing paradigm, our computational method correctly detects the plasticity-enhancing effect of feedback and the effect of the structure of the environment on people's planning strategies. Together, these methods can be used to investigate the mechanisms of cognitive plasticity and to elucidate how people acquire complex cognitive skills such as planning and problem-solving. Importantly, our methods can also be used to measure individual differences in cognitive plasticity and examine how different types (pedagogical) interventions affect the acquisition of cognitive skills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context effects in decision making refer to any influence on options evaluation resulting from its relational properties with other available alternatives. Over the last 40 years, a large corpus of research showed that decision makers are sensitive to irrelevant options and tend to modify their preferences depending on choice architecture. The attraction effect is a well‐known example of context effect, which describes an increase in preferences for an option when a dominated alternative is inserted in the choice set. Sequential sampling models (SSM) interpret decision biases as the result of a dynamic comparative process between the available options that alters subjective values attribution. Recently, SSM received empirical support from eye‐tracking studies that documented a decoy‐dependent allocation of attention. In this study, we integrate previous process‐tracing results using a new hidden‐attribute protocol, in which decision makers have to explore products' attributes, keep in mind their values, and deliberately compare the options. This new methodology allows this study to offer additional evidence on the role of decoys in the dynamic process of choice. In a consumer‐choice task, the addition of an asymmetrically dominated decoy first focused the attention on the target during attributes exploration, which in turn led to an increase in the dominant option preferences at the choice stage. This suggests that adding irrelevant options affects the information sampling procedures, insofar as the comparative process is influenced by the dominance relationship of the alternatives. These results are consistent with past eye‐tracking studies and verify previous connectionist theories of the attraction effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenario planning is a tool for considering alternative futures and their potential impact. The article firstly addresses the paucity of history on management tools by discussing several important lineages in scenario planning's evolution over time, and the emphasis placed on historical analysis by some specific variants therein. Secondly, it describes how causal analysis can be enhanced in scenario planning by process-tracing important historical developments. Thirdly, it outlines how a scenario planning that incorporates history in this way can assist historians to identify counterfactuals and understand the relative importance of alternative causes, thus enriching historical accounts. It can also enable business historians' research on the relationship between businesses and their external environments, and on management decision-making. In concluding, scholars of scenario planning and business history are urged to open a mutually-beneficial dialogue. The article initiates this by setting out some ways in which they can cross-fertilise each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How can people learn to make better decisions and be-come more far-sighted? To make the underlying learningmechanisms more accessible to scientific inquiry, we developa computational method for measuring the time course ofexperience-dependent changes in people’s planning strategies.We validated our method on simulated and empirical data: onsimulated data its inferences were significantly more accuratethan simpler approaches, and when evaluated on human datait correctly detected the plasticity-enhancing effect of perfor-mance feedback. Having validated our method, we illustratehow it can be used to gain new insights into the time courseand nature of cognitive plasticity. Future work will leverageour method to i) reverse-engineer the learning mechanismsenabling people to acquire complex cognitive skills such asplanning and problem-solving and ii) measure individual dif-ferences in cognitive plasticity.

Political parties are used to adapt in the face of political challenges, but little is known about how party elites actually perceive crises and ultimately opt for certain types of reforms accordingly. To address this gap, we focus on the complete transformation process of the Belgian French-Speaking Christian Democratic Party (cdH) in 2022 as a case study. Interviews with party elites show how challenges shared by many West-European centre-right parties can create a dependence on the party leader to the point of marginalizing other traditional actors from the definition of a response strategy. We reveal the unprecedented strategy employed by the leader, who positioned an advisor as a surrogate, at the cost of creating major internal dissension. We argue that the likely multiplication of mainstream parties slipping into great distress in the near future could lead to a shift in managing party change, making it more technocratic than political. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Discusses citizen participation in regional challenge-based innovation policies. • A process-tracing approach reveals how grand challenges anchor at the regional level. • Sensemaking, problem ownership, iteration and knowledge co-production are analysed as anchoring mechanisms. • Co-produced local, corrective and actionable knowledge shape the anchoring process. This study focuses on citizen participation as a co-productive and knowledge-intensive process in innovation policies concerned with regionally anchoring grand challenges. We apply a process-tracing approach and analyse citizen participation in two regional challenge-based innovation policies in the Ruhr, Germany. Local sensemaking, problem ownership, iterations and knowledge co-production are discussed as key mechanisms in the anchoring process. The results reveal the importance of a collective dimension in interpreting the local problem setting of a challenge achieved by reaching out to numerous citizens and how local, corrective and actionable knowledge facilitate the regional challenge anchoring. The policy formulation phase required the highest level of knowledge co-produced with citizens, followed by the implementation phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies process-tracing methods to understand the 2019 leadership selection process in the Belgian French-speaking liberal party, MR, which is the oldest and second largest party in French-speaking Belgium. We triangulate a variety of sources to assemble a rich qualitative material that is used to contrast the formal rules and outcome of the race to the actual process. We show that the gatekeepers were not the ones ascribed in the statutes, that formal rules were bent to fit the profile of the race, and that the very nature of the race was much closer to a coronation than the results may suggest. We also uncover mechanisms through which party actors, especially the incumbent leader as steering agent, informally influence the process to the desired outcome, with the race being played prior to the validation of the candidacies. This analysis puts focuses on when and how key actors use their informal influence to weigh the process and influence the outcome of leadership races.

Comparative policy analysis is at the heart of research that attempts to understand how policies travel. Most of the literature on policy transfer had been developed using the empirical background of policies migrating within the Global North or from there to developing countries. Studying policies that migrate within the Global South is relevant from a theoretical perspective, insofar as it allows us to identify new dynamics, agents and mechanisms involved in policy transfers. This article analyzes two Brazilian policies that have been diffused around the globe: The Family Allowance Program and the Food Purchase Program. This research explores how these policies have been internationalized and what conditions have facilitated this process. To explain this movement, we combine the study of individuals, domestic and international organizations, political structures and change. We argue that individuals have been fundamental to internationalizing Brazilian policies. They have benefitted from both national and international structures and organizations that have facilitated the diffusion of policies that they have promoted abroad. This study relies on field work carried out in Brazil, Chile and Italy. We use a process-tracing strategy to reconstruct the pathways of diffusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the most appropriate QCA solution type when engaging in a multimethod design that includes QCA and in-depth process-tracing (PT)? While either the intermediate or the parsimonious solution are generally favored in QCA-only studies, we identify important challenges that can emerge when selecting those solutions in a QCA-PT multimethod study. We particularly highlight the risk of mechanistic heterogeneity, omitted conditions, and draw the attention on the issue of generalization. We discuss each of these intertwined challenges in depth, and explain why the conservative solution is useful to consider in addressing them. We substantiate our arguments by drawing on a recently completed evaluation study that was commissioned by the Flemish ESF Agency in Belgium. In the study, we combined QCA and theory-guided in-depth process-tracing to uncover under what combinations of conditions (QCA) a training programme would lead to successful training transfer and how (PT) this happened in the successful cases. The article highlights the need to carefully consider the selection of solution types in any multimethod design comprising QCA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When people are given quantified information (e.g., ‘there is a 60% chance of rain’), the format of quantifiers (i.e., numerical: ‘a 60% chance’ vs. verbal: ‘it is likely’) might affect their decisions. Previous studies with indirect cues of judgements and decisions (e.g., response times, decision outcomes) give inconsistent findings that could support either a more intuitive process for verbal than numerical quantifiers or a greater focus on the context (e.g., rain) for verbal than numerical quantifiers. We used two pre-registered eye-tracking experiments (n(1) = 148, n(2) = 133) to investigate decision-making processes with verbal and numerical quantifiers. Participants evaluated multiple verbally or numerically quantified nutrition labels (Experiment 1) and weather forecasts (Experiment 2) with different context valence (positive or negative), and quantities (‘low’, ‘medium’, or ‘high’ in Experiment 1 and ‘possible’, ‘likely’, or ‘very likely’ in Experiment 2) presented in a fully within-subjects design. Participants looked longer at verbal than numerical quantifiers, and longer at the contextual information with verbal quantifiers. Quantifier format also affected judgements and decisions: in Experiment 1, participants judged positive labels to be better in the verbal compared to the equivalent numerical condition (and to be worse for negative labels). In Experiment 2, participants decided on rain protection more for a verbal forecast of rain than the equivalent numerical forecast. The results fit the explanation that verbal quantifiers put more focus on the informational context than do numerical quantifiers, rather than prompting more intuitive decisions.

This paper explains the influence of the European Union (EU) in multilateral chemicals negotiations. Focusing on the Basel Convention, this paper studies two issues negotiated at the Conference of the Parties 2019. Comparing a success and a failure case for the EU, it provides explanations for the EU’s high influence in the negotiations on the management of plastic waste and its low influence in the negotiations on low Persistent Organic Pollutant content values. Using process-tracing, the paper maps the EU’s diplomatic activities from the EU’s initial position to the outcome of the negotiations. Two separate causal mechanisms outline the differences between the success and the failure of the EU. Data is collected through interviews, observations and official documents. The paper shows the crucial role of the EU’s diplomatic activities in multilateral negotiations. The EU can be influential, if it strongly engages in all negotiation forums, is able to adapt its position during the course of negotiations and can propose a compromise acceptable to all parties. It is however uninfluential, if it downscales its diplomatic activities and refuses to compromise.

Fiscal policy surveillance, including the possibility to impose financial sanctions, has been an important feature of Economic and Monetary Union since its inception. With the reform of fiscal rules in the aftermath of the financial and sovereign debt crisis, coercive provisions have been made stricter and the Commission has formally gained power vis-à-vis the Council. Nevertheless, sanctions under the Stability and Growth Pact for budgetary non-compliance have so far not been imposed. This article asks why the Commission has until now refrained from proposing such sanctions. Using minimalist process-tracing methods, three post-crisis cases in which the imposition of fines was possible, are analysed. Applying an adaptation of normative institutionalism, it is argued that the mechanism entitled “normative-strategic minimum enforcement” provides an explanation of why no sanctions are imposed in the cases studied: Given that the Commission does not perceive punitive action as appropriate, it strategically refrains from applying the enforcement provisions to their full extent.

Abstract How do governments distribute resources across economic sectors during a crisis? And why do some sectors receive more than others? The recent COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the urgency of these questions. In this paper, we explore the extent to which a political economy perspective can help explain the characteristics of sector-specific state aid in the Netherlands, a traditionally corporatist country. While KLM, the biggest player in the Dutch aviation sector, was promised loans worth €3.4 billion, the horeca (hospitality) sector was denied a similar deal. Limited cross-case analysis eliminates purely economic accounts. We employed process-tracing and analyzed hundreds of national media articles to understand the influence of elected leaders, interest groups, and experts. We find that, against the backdrop of economic concerns, vote-seeking behavior by elected leaders as well as the strength and organization of interest groups influenced how much each sector could expect. Meanwhile, policy-seeking behavior helps explain the form that aid took. Our findings highlight the need to consider fiscal support in political economy terms, even during crises, and to explore the composition of state aid, not just its presence or amount.

Is evidential pluralism possible when we move to the social sciences, and if so, to what degree? What are the analytical benefits? The answer put forward in this article is that there is a tradeoff between how serious social science methodologies take the study of mechanisms and the analytical benefits that flow from evidential pluralism. In the social sciences, there are a range of different approaches to studying mechanisms, differentiated by (1) the degree to which the 'process' is unpacked theoretically, and (2) whether the approach takes seriously the particular nature of social phenomena and the epistemological consequences that flow from this, as in realist approaches to the study of mechanisms, or whether more neopositivist-based foundational assumptions are adopted. Depending on which approach to study mechanisms is used, evidential pluralism is either: easy but superficial, very productive but challenging, or almost impossible because of the fundamental differences between the types of claims being made and the forms of evidence used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Chilena de Derecho y Ciencia Política is the property of Revista Chilena de Derecho y Ciencia Política and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Una preocupación de los estudios de administración pública ha sido comprender qué factores desencadenan y explican procesos de reforma. Este artículo se enfoca en analizar los mecanismos detrás de la aplicación de una reforma del aparato policial en Uruguay. Este caso presenta dos aspectos relevantes para la teoría y el análisis empírico. En primer lugar, se trata de un caso con elementos contraintuitivos. Una organización con un esquema de funcionamiento fuertemente tradicional y una cultura administrativa jerárquica, que, sin embargo, procesó una serie importante de reformas de mejora del desempeño. En segundo lugar, la investigación intenta comprender “la política de las reformas administrativas” a partir del análisis de la relación entre factores estructurales y de agencia que dan lugar a un determinado resultado político. Para ello se utiliza el marco metodológico del procesamiento y su adaptación en tres niveles de análisis de mecanismos causales .

Traditionally, Europe stands out as the region where data protection regulation is strongest throughout the world. With its General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), the European Union in 2016 updated its claim for leadership in this policy realm by adopting measures which better meet the challenges of digitalisation. The main interest of this paper is whether three intensely debated emerging norms in the regulation have been driven by the supranational institutions or by single or groups of member states who acted as norm entrepreneurs. Therefore, we trace the decision-making process leading to the GDPR. We conclude that the new regulation provides more support for supranational norm promotion, while we see little evidence for norm entrepreneurship by member states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by the present dominance of online education worldwide during the COVID‐19 pandemic, the present study employed a process‐tracing approach to explore the causal mechanisms of boredom in an online L3 learning. The present case study was done on an adult learner of German and analyzed her accounts of experiencing boredom throughout a whole semester, 13 sessions in length. The trajectory of boredom throughout the course showed that the beginning of the course was the most boring though the learner continued to experience boredom until the end of the semester. Among the theoretical explanations of boredom, under‐stimulation, low perceived control over tasks and attention deficit were found to be the most dominant until the end of the course. Among the nontheoretical explanations of boredom, user‐unfriendly requirements of online learning prevailed mostly in the beginning of the course until the middle but they were found to be less influential in the end of the course. The process tracing approach showed to be effective in unpacking the black box of the causal mechanisms involved in the boredom experienced in the online L3 learning. Suggestions were made on how to make an online language course less boring and more communicative, which seems essential today due to the unrivaled use of online education during the pandemic. The Challenge: COVID‐19 pandemic is followed by an unprecedented popularity of online education. But, does online language learning create any particular source of boredom? What levels of boredom does an L3 learner experience in an online course and what are the underlying reasons? The present case study aims to unravel these causal mechanisms using process‐tracing which is an innovative qualitative research method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past decades have witnessed an upsurge in the use of global performance indicators (GPIs) to influence state behaviour. Within international development, the millennium development goals (MDGs) introduced an era of indicator-based governance, which now continues with the sustainable development goals (SDGs). The article provides a theoretical and empirical account of the workings and effectiveness of GPI-based development governance. Focusing on MDG 3, which concerned gender equality, the article presents the results of (1) a mapping of GPI adjustment in 15 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2015, and (2) a study of the causal mechanisms of gender policy change in Kenya and Ethiopia. The findings demonstrate that MDG 3 was effective in influencing domestic policy commitments but struggled to generate further behavioural change, highlighting the risks of superficial GPI adjustment. The case studies show that domestic change was primarily driven by the donors' economic conditionality and social influence strategies, leveraged through MDG performance assessments. The reason why material and social pressure was unable to close the gap between commitments and implementation efforts rests with its reliance on incentives as a source of change. These findings have implications for GPI-based governance, SDG implementation and gender equality change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

La observación de nexos causales en los procesos organizacionales ha priorizado los enfoques cuantitativos a partir del procesamiento de bases de datos. El process-tracing (rastreo de procesos) es un diseño metodológico alternativo, predominantemente cualitativo, para el análisis de esos vínculos causales. Desafortunadamente, se trata de un método poco conocido y con limitada aplicación a la investigación de la realidad organizacional, más aún en la región iberoamericana. El propósito de este trabajo es examinar la relevancia de este método para el análisis de las organizaciones. Para ello, primero se abordan los fundamentos epistemológicos y metodológicos que sustentan este método. Seguidamente se examina su relevancia para el análisis de la gestión organizacional. Finalmente, se describe su aplicación para el estudio del proceso estratégico de una cadena de restaurantes con orientación vegetariana en Lima, Perú. El documento concluye resaltando la importancia de usar este método y su contribución al pluralismo metodológico en la disciplina.

In 2018, the Californian government adopted a new data protection framework. The flagship of this framework is the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). As this new framework is widely considered to resemble the European Union's (EU's) General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), this article intends to investigate whether the Brussels Effect could explain this resemblance. We apply process-tracing to test if the Brussels Effect causally connects the GDPR with the CCPA. The analysis is based on a careful evaluation of three sets of evidence. Firstly, privacy policies of Apple, Facebook, and Google are examined. Secondly, lobbying concerning the alignment of the implementation of the CCPA with the GDPR is scrutinized. Lastly, it is investigated whether the Californian government has used arguments linked to the Brussels Effect while drafting the CCPA and its subsequent implementing regulations. It is concluded that the Brussels Effect has indeed played a role in the adoption of the CCPA. Nevertheless, it has become clear that the impact of the Effect varies depending on exactly which provision of the GDPR is examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When people are given quantified information (e.g., 'there is a 60% chance of rain'), the format of quantifiers (i.e., numerical: 'a 60% chance' vs. verbal: 'it is likely') might affect their decisions. Previous studies with indirect cues of judgements and decisions (e.g., response times, decision outcomes) give inconsistent findings that could support either a more intuitive process for verbal than numerical quantifiers or a greater focus on the context (e.g., rain) for verbal than numerical quantifiers. We used two pre-registered eye-tracking experiments (n(1) = 148, n(2) = 133) to investigate decision-making processes with verbal and numerical quantifiers. Participants evaluated multiple verbally or numerically quantified nutrition labels (Experiment 1) and weather forecasts (Experiment 2) with different context valence (positive or negative), and quantities ('low', 'medium', or 'high' in Experiment 1 and 'possible', 'likely', or 'very likely' in Experiment 2) presented in a fully within-subjects design. Participants looked longer at verbal than numerical quantifiers, and longer at the contextual information with verbal quantifiers. Quantifier format also affected judgements and decisions: in Experiment 1, participants judged positive labels to be better in the verbal compared to the equivalent numerical condition (and to be worse for negative labels). In Experiment 2, participants decided on rain protection more for a verbal forecast of rain than the equivalent numerical forecast. The results fit the explanation that verbal quantifiers put more focus on the informational context than do numerical quantifiers, rather than prompting more intuitive decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Participatory budgeting is perhaps the most widespread and popular form of democratic innovation (DI). It is often identified as an appropriate tool to deepen the democracy at the local level. The text shows that this is not always the case, as some elected officials may use it as a innovation “façade” or its design suffers from various forms of imperfections leading to its failure to be implemented. The authors focus on the practice of participatory budgeting and its failures in the Czech Republic. Through the empirical testing of causal mechanism, the article reveals the main causes of that failure, in the case of its implementation in Prague 7 borough. The mechanism presented is based on the theory-testing minimal process-tracing design in which part of the findings of the previous research have been tested. It also attempts to support empirically only the significant steps of the mechanism between cause and outcome. In particular, the three scope conditions are tested: political support, sufficient funding for participatory budgeting and the existence of a source of know-how. Authors conclude that in the selected case, there was a domino effect of failure, with successive failures in all observed conditions, which ultimately led to a complete brake of causal mechanism and failure of participatory budgeting tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fiscal policy surveillance, including the possibility to impose financial sanctions, has been an important feature of Economic and Monetary Union since its inception. With the reform of fiscal rules in the aftermath of the financial and sovereign debt crisis, coercive provisions have been made stricter and the Commission has formally gained power vis‐à‐vis the Council. Nevertheless, sanctions under the Stability and Growth Pact for budgetary non‐compliance have so far not been imposed. This article asks why the Commission has until now refrained from proposing such sanctions. Using minimalist process‐tracing methods, three post‐crisis cases in which the imposition of fines was possible, are analysed. Applying an adaptation of normative institutionalism, it is argued that the mechanism entitled “normative‐strategic minimum enforcement” provides an explanation of why no sanctions are imposed in the cases studied: Given that the Commission does not perceive punitive action as appropriate, it strategically refrains from applying the enforcement provisions to their full extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The crises have spread out globally and have impacted industries, either large firms or small firms. These impacts make the firms economically in intense trouble or file bankruptcies and lay off their employees, as their incomes are falling significantly globally. Therefore, this study investigates how businesses can improve their resilience and be prepared to cope with crises and threats in this disruptive era. What were the strategies the firm has implemented?.The authors have conducted this research in PT Alpha by using the process Tracing case study method in semi-structured interviews with eight critical respondents in ten in-depth interviews, split into a pilot study and the triangulation period based on those initial inputs. The authors have used process tracing analysis to test the evidence. The results showed that the major businesses need to concentrate on the three phases as a process, i.e., preparation and anticipation, coping and improvisation, and recovery and transformation, to be resilient (it is an enhancement of the concept of Duchek, 2020). To have a more comprehensive view, the authors have extended the research from the economic crises in 1998 and 2008 till 2019; thus, the process-tracing case study is a suitable method. This method has been used a lot for historical settings. This paper recommends further research to expand the studies to other large established companies in similar segments or other segments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do governments distribute resources across economic sectors during a crisis? And why do some sectors receive more than others? The recent COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the urgency of these questions. In this paper, we explore the extent to which a political economy perspective can help explain the characteristics of sector-specific state aid in the Netherlands, a traditionally corporatist country. While KLM, the biggest player in the Dutch aviation sector, was promised loans worth €3.4 billion, the horeca (hospitality) sector was denied a similar deal. Limited cross-case analysis eliminates purely economic accounts. We employed process-tracing and analyzed hundreds of national media articles to understand the influence of elected leaders, interest groups, and experts. We find that, against the backdrop of economic concerns, vote-seeking behavior by elected leaders as well as the strength and organization of interest groups influenced how much each sector could expect. Meanwhile, policy-seeking behavior helps explain the form that aid took. Our findings highlight the need to consider fiscal support in political economy terms, even during crises, and to explore the composition of state aid, not just its presence or amount. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most decision-making models describing individual differences in heuristics and biases tasks build on the assumption that reasoners produce a first incorrect answer in a quick, automatic way which they may or may not override later and that the advantage of high capacity reasoners arises from this late correction mechanism. To investigate this assumption, we developed a mouse-tracking analysis technique to capture individuals’ first answers and subsequent thinking dynamics. Across two denominator neglect task experiments, we observed that individuals initially move the mouse cursor towards the correct answer option in a substantial number of cases suggesting that reasoners may not always produce an incorrect answer first. Furthermore, we observed that, compared to low capacity reasoners, high capacity individuals revise their first answer more frequently if it is incorrect and make fewer changes if it is correct. However, we did not find evidence that high capacity individuals produce correct initial answers more frequently. Consistent with the predictions of previous decision-making models, these results suggest that in the denominator neglect task the capacity-normativity relationship arises after the initial response is formulated. The present work demonstrates how the analysis of mouse trajectories can be utilized to investigate individual differences in decision-making and help us better apprehend the dynamics of thinking behind decision biases.