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Taking the price of grain in Guizhou Province as an example, by establishing GARCH model, I calculate VAR of logarithm return of grain price index, in order to conduct research on the variation law of price of the agricultural products. The results show that VAR of grain in Guizhou has variation. After the year 2010, VAR value is gradually increasing, and the price variation risk of grain market tends to increase progressively. Based on the characteristics of grain price variation, a series of corresponding proposals are put forward to stabilize the grain price as follows: strengthen the agricultural infrastructure construction, and promote the agricultural overall production capacity; reinforce the market supervision on the circulation field of agricultural products, and maintain market order; improve regulation system of agricultural products, and stabilize the price of agricultural products; strengthen mobility regulation, and prevent a flood of speculative cash.

Based on the research introduction of domestic and foreign scholars, dynamic equilibrium between the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural product is analyzed by VEC model, according to the data of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products in the years 1990-2007. Chow’s breakpoint test is used to measure the stage characteristics of the impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product. Result shows that there is a long-term and stationary relationship between the flow quantity of rural labor force and the price of agricultural product. Rural labor force flow, as an exogenous force, affects the agricultural production, and further influences the price fluctuation of agricultural products. Impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product is from weak to strong, then grows gradually weaker, and reaches its peak value at the year 1998. With the development of rural society and economy and the market process, rural labor force flow endogenously affects the price of agricultural product, which has periodic characteristics. In order to achieve a dual stabilization of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products, the following countermeasures are put forward: vigorously developing vocational education, increasing the support for agricultural production, and making active employment measures.

Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2003, Thesis (M.Sc.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, 2003, Tarım sektörü her ülke ekonomisi için önemli bir sektördür. İnsan yaşamı için gerekli beslenme, giyinme ve barınma gibi temel ihtiyaçlar tarım ürünlerinden karşılanmaktadır. Tarım sektörü gıda ve tekstil sektörleri için hammadde sağlamaktadır. İlaç, gübre ve makine sektörü gibi sektörlerin ürettikleri mamulleri kullanmaktadır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ihracatlarında önemli bir yer tutmakta ve önemli miktarda ihracat geliri sağlamaktadırlar. Tarım sektörü önemli ölçüde işgücü istihdam etmektedir. Tarımsal üretim büyük ölçüde doğa şartlarından etkilenmektedir. Her ülke tarımsal destekleme politikaları yürütmektedir. Ülkemizde taban fiyatla destekleme alımları en çok uygulanan destekleme aracıdır. Bu çalışmada başlıca tarımsal ürünlerin Türkiye fiyatları ile bazı dış Pazar fiyatları karşılaştırılmıştır. Türkiye fiyatları dış Pazar fiyatlarına oranlanarak elde edilen grafikler ve fiyatların bu pazarlar için yıllar için değişim grafikleri incelenmiştir., Agricultural industry is an important part of economics for all countries. First of all the fundamental needs of people which are food, clothing and shelter are provided by agricultural products. Agricultural industry supplies the raw material inputs especially for food and textile industries. On the other hand, agricultural industry is the customer of medicine, fertilizer and mechanical industries. The important incomes of developing countries are agricultural products and exports. Agricultural industry provides an extensive employment. On the other hand agricultural production is substantially affected by natural conditions. Every country manipulates politics for agricultural industry. The most popular agricultural supports, which are made by government in Turkey are buyings with minimum price. In this study, market prices of agricultural products in Turkey and selected other countries are compared. Graphics obtained by ratios of the market prices of agricultural products in Turkey and other countries and changes in annual market prices are investigated., Yüksek Lisans, M.Sc.