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Previous studies have demonstrated an association between transplantation rate per center and postoperative mortality after heart transplantation. In 2011, Sweden centralized heart transplants and waiting lists, reducing the number of centers from 3 to 2. We aimed to assess the active waiting time and pre- and post-transplant mortality before and after centralization. Heart transplantations performed in Sweden between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2020 were included. Background and donor organ supply data were collected from Scandiatransplant, the Swedish Thoracic Transplant Registry, and the Swedish Cardiac Surgery Registry. The Fine and Gray methods were applied to visualize cumulative incidence curves and conduct competing risk regressions. A Cox model was used to adjust for factors influencing time to post-transplant death. When comparing the two eras, the median active waiting time increased from 54 to 71 days (p = 0.015). The risk of mortality on the waiting list decreased in the later era (subhazard ratio 0.43; [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.25-0.74]; p = 0.002). The number of heart transplantation procedures (including pediatric patients) increased by 53%. There was a significant difference in organ utilization between eras (p = 0.033; chi-square test). 30-day and 1-year survival post-transplant rates for adults increased from 90.8% to 97.8% (p < 0.001) and from 87.9% to 94.6% (p < 0.001), respectively. 1-year mortality was reduced by 63% (hazard ratio 0.37; 95% CI 0.22-0.61). This nationwide study examined patients listed for and undergoing heart transplantation before and after the centralization of waiting lists and surgeries in Sweden. Waiting list mortality decreased, and 1-year post-transplantation survival was improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Saint Louis University Score (SLUScore) was developed to quantify intraoperative blood pressure trajectories and their associated risk for adverse outcomes. This study examines the prevalence and severity of intraoperative hypotension described by the SLUScore and its relationship with 30-day mortality in surgical subtypes. This retrospective analysis of perioperative data included surgical cases performed between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2020. The SLUScore is calculated from cumulative time-periods for which the mean arterial pressure is below a range of hypotensive thresholds. After calculating the SLUScore for each surgical procedure, we quantified the prevalence and severity of intraoperative hypotension for each surgical procedure and the association between intraoperative hypotension and 30-day mortality. We used binary logistic regression to quantify the potential contribution of intraoperative hypotension to mortality. We analysed 490 982 cases (57.7% female; mean age 57 yr); 33.2% of cases had a SLUScore>0, a median SLUScore of 13 (inter-quartile range [IQR] 7–21), with 1.19% average mortality. The SLUScore was associated with mortality in 12/14 surgical groups. The increases in the odds ratio for death within 30 days of surgery per SLUScore increment were: all surgery types 3.5% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 3.2–3.9); abdominal/transplant surgery 6% (95% CI 1.5–10.7); thoracic surgery1.5% (95% CI 1–3.3); vascular surgery 3.01% (95% CI 1.9–4.05); spine/neurosurgery 1.1% (95% CI 0.1–2.1); orthopaedic surgery 1.4% (95% CI 0.7–2.2); gynaecological surgery 6.3% (95% CI 2.5–10.1); genitourinary surgery 4.84% (95% CI 3.5–6.15); gastrointestinal surgery 5.2% (95% CI 3.9–6.4); gastroendoscopy 5.5% (95% CI 4.4–6.7); general surgery 6.3% (95% CI 5.5–7.1); ear, nose, and throat surgery 1.6% (95% CI 0–3.27); and cardiac electrophysiology (including pacemaker procedures) 6.6% (95% CI 1.1–12.4). The SLUScore was independently, but variably, associated with 30-day mortality after noncardiac surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major surgery is associated with high complication rates. Several risk scores exist to assess individual patient risk before surgery but have limited precision. Novel prognostic factors can be included as additional building blocks in existing prediction models. A candidate prognostic factor, measured by cardiopulmonary exercise testing, is ventilatory efficiency (VE/VCO 2). The aim of this systematic review was to summarise evidence regarding VE/VCO 2 as a prognostic factor for postoperative complications in patients undergoing major surgery. A medical library specialist developed the search strategy. No database-provided limits, considering study types, languages, publication years, or any other formal criteria were applied to any of the sources. Two reviewers assessed eligibility of each record and rated risk of bias in included studies. From 10,082 screened records, 65 studies were identified as eligible. We extracted adjusted associations from 32 studies and unadjusted from 33 studies. Risk of bias was a concern in the domains 'study confounding' and 'statistical analysis'. VE/VCO 2 was reported as a prognostic factor for short-term complications after thoracic and abdominal surgery. VE/VCO 2 was also reported as a prognostic factor for mid- to long-term mortality. Data-driven covariable selection was applied in 31 studies. Eighteen studies excluded VE/VCO 2 from the final multivariable regression owing to data-driven model-building approaches. This systematic review identifies VE/VCO 2 as a predictor for short-term complications after thoracic and abdominal surgery. However, the available data do not allow conclusions about clinical decision-making. Future studies should select covariables for adjustment a priori based on external knowledge. PROSPERO (CRD42022369944). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objective: Lung transplantation is the only life-extending therapy for end-stage pulmonary disease patients, but its risks necessitate an understanding of outcome predictors, with the frailty index and nutritional status being key assessment tools. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between preoperative frailty and nutritional indexes and the postoperative mortality rate in patients receiving lung transplants, and to determine which measure is a more potent predictor of outcomes. Materials and Methods: This study reviewed 185 adults who received lung transplants at a single medical center between January 2013 and May 2023. We primarily focused on postoperative 7-year overall survival. Other outcomes measured were short-term mortalities, acute rejection, kidney complications, infections, and re-transplantation. We compared the predictive abilities of preoperative nutritional and frailty indicators for survival using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and identified factors affecting survival through regression analyses. Results: There were no significant differences in preoperative nutritional indicators between survivors and non-survivors. However, preoperative frailty indicators did differ significantly between these groups. Multivariate analysis revealed that the American Society of Anesthesiologists Class V, clinical frailty scale, and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were key predictors of 7-year overall survival. Of these, the CCI had the strongest predictive ability with an area under the curve of 0.755, followed by the modified frailty index at 0.731. Conclusions: Our study indicates that for critically ill patients undergoing lung transplantation, frailty indexes derived from preoperative patient history and functional autonomy are more effective in forecasting postoperative outcomes, including survival, than indexes related to preoperative nutritional status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) patients are at higher risk of postoperative complications. We analyzed the association of PH with 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs). Methods: A single-center propensity score overlap weighting (OW) retrospective cohort study was conducted on 164 patients with a mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP) of >20 mmHg within 24 months of undergoing elective inpatient abdominal surgery or endoscopic procedures under general anesthesia and a control cohort (N = 1981). The primary outcome was PPCs, and the secondary outcomes were PPC sub-composites, namely respiratory failure (RF), pneumonia (PNA), aspiration pneumonia/pneumonitis (ASP), pulmonary embolism (PE), length of stay (LOS), and 30-day mortality. Results: PPCs were higher in the PH cohort (29.9% vs. 11.2%, p < 0.001). When sub-composites were analyzed, higher rates of RF (19.3% vs. 6.6%, p < 0.001) and PNA (11.2% vs. 5.7%, p = 0.01) were observed. After OW, PH was still associated with greater PPCs (RR 1.66, 95% CI (1.05–2.71), p = 0.036) and increased LOS (median 8.0 days vs. 4.9 days) but not 30-day mortality. Sub-cohort analysis showed no difference in PPCs between pre- and post-capillary PH patients. Conclusions: After covariate balancing, PH was associated with a higher risk for PPCs and prolonged LOS. This elevated PPC risk should be considered during preoperative risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The clinical data regarding the relationships between BMI and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are inconsistent, especially for the obese and overweight patients. The aims of this study were to determine whether obesity is associated with the presence of AAA and to investigate the quantitative relationship between BMI and the risk of AAA presence and postoperative mortality. Materials and methods: PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase databases were used to search for pertinent studies updated to December 2023. The pooled relative risk (RR) with 95% CI was estimated by conventional meta-analysis based on random effects model. Dose-response meta-analyses using robust-error meta-regression (REMR) model were conducted to quantify the associations between BMI and AAA outcome variables. Subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, and publication bias analysis were performed according to the characteristics of participants. Results: Eighteen studies were included in our study. The meta-analysis showed a higher prevalence of AAA with a RR of 1.07 in patients with obesity. The dose-response meta-analysis revealed a nonlinear relationship between BMI and the risk of AAA presence. A 'U' shape curve reflecting the correlation between BMI and the risk of postoperative mortality in AAA patients was also uncovered, suggesting the 'safest' BMI interval (28.55, 31.05) with the minimal RR. Conclusions: Obesity is positively but nonlinearly correlated with the increased risk of AAA presence. BMI is related to AAA postoperative mortality in a 'U' shaped curve, with the lowest RR observed among patients suffering from overweight and obesity. These findings offer a preventive strategy for AAA morbidity and provide guidance for improving the prognosis in patients undergone AAA surgical repair. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Li-Chin Sung,1– 4 Chuen-Chau Chang,5– 7 Chun-Chieh Yeh,8,9 Yih-Giun Cherng,5,10 Ta-Liang Chen,5,7,11 Chien-Chang Liao5– 7,12,13 1Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; 2Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, New Taipei City, Taiwan; 3Taipei Heart Institute, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; 4Department of General Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; 5Department of Anesthesiology, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; 6Department of Anesthesiology, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; 7Anesthesiology and Health Policy Research Center, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; 8Department of Surgery, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan; 9Department of Surgery, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, USA; 10Department of Anesthesiology, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; 11Department of Anesthesiology, Wang Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; 12Research Center of Big Data and Meta‑Analysis, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; 13School of Chinese Medicine, College of Chinese Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, TaiwanCorrespondence: Chien-Chang Liao, Department of Anesthesiology, Taipei Medical University Hospital, 252 Wuxing Street, Taipei, 11031, Taiwan, Tel +886-2-2737-2181, ext. 8310, Fax +886-2-2736-7344, Email ccliao@tmu.edu.tw; jacky48863027@yahoo.com.twObjective: To evaluate the complications and mortality after noncardiac surgeries in patients who underwent previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).Methods: We used insurance data and identified patients aged ≥ 20 years undergoing noncardiac surgeries between 2010 and 2017 in Taiwan. Based on propensity-score matching, we selected an adequate number of patients with a previous history of CABG (within preoperative 24 months) and those who did not have a CABG history, and both groups had balanced baseline characteristics. The association of CABG with the risk of postoperative complications and mortality was estimated (odds ratio [OR] and 95% confidence interval [CI]) using multiple logistic regression analysis.Results: The matching procedure generated 2327 matched pairs for analyses. CABG significantly increased the risks of 30-day in-hospital mortality (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.36– 3.84), postoperative pneumonia (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.12– 1.98), sepsis (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.17– 1.89), stroke (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.17– 1.99) and admission to the intensive care unit (OR, 1.75, 95% CI 1.50– 2.05). The findings were generally consistent across most of the evaluated subgroups. A noncardiac surgery performed within 1 month after CABG was associated with the highest risk for adverse events, which declined over time.Conclusion: Prior history of CABG was associated with postoperative pneumonia, sepsis, stroke, and mortality in patients undergoing noncardiac surgeries. Although we raised the possibility regarding deferral of non-critical elective noncardiac surgeries among patients had recent CABG when considering the risks, critical or emergency surgeries were not in the consideration of delay surgery, especially cancer surgery.Keywords: adverse events, coronary artery bypass surgery, noncardiac surgeries, postoperative complications, postoperative mortality

BACKGROUND: Frailty assessment adds important prognostic information during preoperative decision-making but can be cumbersome to implement into routine clinical care. We developed and tested an abbreviated method of frailty assessment using variables routinely collected by the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) registry. METHODS: An abbreviated frailty score (the simple Vascular Quality Initiative-Frailty Score [VQI-FS]) was developed using 11 or fewer VQI variables (hypertension, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, peripheral vascular disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, renal impairment, anemia, underweight, nonhome residence, and nonambulatory status) that map to recognized frailty domains in the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment and the literature. Nonemergent cases registered in the VQI from 2010 to 2017 (n = 265,632) in seven registries (carotid endarterectomy, n = 77,111; carotid artery stenting, n = 13,215; endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, n = 29,607; open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, n = 7442; infrainguinal bypass, n = 33,128; suprainguinal bypass, n = 10,661; and peripheral vascular intervention, n = 94,468) were analyzed using logistic regression models to determine the predictive power of the VQI-FS for perioperative and longer term (9-month) mortality. Nomograms were created using weighted regression coefficients to assist in individualized frailty assessment and estimation of 9-month mortality. RESULTS: The VQI-FS, using equal weighting of these 11 VQI variables, effectively predicted 9-month mortality with an area under the curve of 0.724 by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. However, differential weighting of the variables allowed simplification of the model to only seven variables (congestive heart failure, renal impairment, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, not living at home, not ambulatory, anemia, and underweight status); hypertension, coronary artery disease, peripheral vascular disease, and diabetes had relatively low predictive power. Adding procedure-specific risk further improved performance of the model with a final area under the curve on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of 0.758. Model calibration was excellent with predicted/observed regression line slope of 0.991 and intercept of 5.449e-04. CONCLUSIONS: A differentially weighted abbreviated VQI-FS using seven variables in addition to procedure-specific risk has strong correlation with 9-month mortality. Nomograms incorporating patient- and procedure-adjusted risk can effectively predict 9-month mortality. Reliable estimates of longer term mortality should assist in preoperative decision-making for vascular procedures that often carry substantial risk of mortality.

Because of the high incidence of major perioperative adverse events, spine surgery in dialysis patients should be recommended carefully after consideration of its risks and benefits. However, the benefits of spine surgery in dialysis patients remain unclear because of the lack of long-term outcomes. The purpose of this study is to elucidate the long-term outcomes of spine surgery in dialysis patients, focusing on activities of daily living (ADLs), life expectancy, and risk factors for postoperative mortality. Data for 65 dialysis patients who underwent spine surgery at our institution and were followed up for a mean duration of 6.2 years were retrospectively reviewed. ADLs, number of surgeries, and survival times were recorded. The postoperative survival rate was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and risk factors for postoperative mortality were investigated using a generalized Wilcoxon test and multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model. Compared with preoperative ADLs, ADLs significantly improved at discharge after surgery and at the final follow-up. However, 16 of the 65 patients (24.6%) underwent multiple surgeries, and 34 (52.3%) died during the follow-up period. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the survival rate after spine surgery was 95.4% at 1 year, 86.2% at 3 years, 69.6% at 5 years, 59.7% at 7 years, and 28.7% at 10 years, and the overall median survival time was 99 months. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that a dialysis period of ≥10 years was a significant risk factor. Spine surgery in dialysis patients improved and maintained ADLs in the long term and did not shorten life expectancy. However, dialysis patients undergoing spine surgery require multiple surgeries more frequently, and a dialysis period of ≥10 years is a significant risk factor for postoperative mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Life-saving emergency major resection of colorectal cancer (CRC) is a high-risk procedure. Accurate prediction of postoperative mortality for patients undergoing this procedure is essential for both healthcare performance monitoring and preoperative risk assessment. Risk-adjustment models for CRC patients often include patient and tumour characteristics, widely available in cancer registries and audits. The authors investigated to what extent inclusion of additional physiological and surgical measures, available through linkage or additional data collection, improves accuracy of risk models. Methods: Linked, routinely-collected data on patients undergoing emergency CRC surgery in England between December 2016 and November 2019 were used to develop a risk model for 90-day mortality. Backwards selection identified a 'selected model' of physiological and surgical measures in addition to patient and tumour characteristics. Model performance was assessed compared to a 'basic model' including only patient and tumour characteristics. Missing data was multiply imputed. Results: Eight hundred forty-six of 10 578 (8.0%) patients died within 90 days of surgery. The selected model included seven preoperative physiological and surgical measures (pulse rate, systolic blood pressure, breathlessness, sodium, urea, albumin, and predicted peritoneal soiling), in addition to the 10 patient and tumour characteristics in the basic model (calendar year of surgery, age, sex, ASA grade, TNM T stage, TNM N stage, TNM M stage, cancer site, number of comorbidities, and emergency admission). The selected model had considerably better discrimination compared to the basic model (C-statistic: 0.824 versus 0.783, respectively). Conclusion: Linkage of disease-specific and treatment-specific datasets allowed the inclusion of physiological and surgical measures in a risk model alongside patient and tumour characteristics, which improves the accuracy of the prediction of the mortality risk for CRC patients having emergency surgery. This improvement will allow more accurate performance monitoring of healthcare providers and enhance clinical care planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study evaluated the postoperative mortality and morbidity outcomes following the different subtypes of gastrointestinal (GI) surgery over a 15-year period. Background: Patients receiving chronic kidney replacement therapy (KRT) experience higher rates of general surgery compared with other surgery types. Contemporary data on the types of surgeries and their outcomes are lacking. KRT was defined as patients requiring chronic dialysis (hemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis) or having a functioning kidney transplant long-term. Methods: All incident and prevalent patients aged greater than 18 years identified in the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant (ANZDATA) Registry as receiving chronic KRT were linked with jurisdictional hospital admission datasets between January 1, 2000 until December 31, 2015. Patients were categorized by their KRT modality [hemodialysis (HD), peritoneal dialysis (PD), home hemodialysis (HHD), and kidney transplant (KT)]. GI surgeries were categorized as upper gastrointestinal (UGI), bowel (small and large bowel), anorectal, hernia surgery, cholecystectomy, and appendicectomy. The primary outcome was the rates of the different surgeries, estimated using Poisson models. Secondary outcomes were risks of 30-day/in-hospital postoperative mortality risk and nonfatal outcomes and were estimated using logistic regression. Independent predictors of 30-day mortality were examined using comorbidity-adjusted Cox models. Results: Overall, 46,779 patients on chronic KRT were linked to jurisdictional hospital datasets, and 9,116 patients were identified as having undergone 14,540 GI surgeries with a combined follow-up of 76,593 years. Patients on PD had the highest rates of GI surgery (8 per 100 patient years), with hernia surgery being the most frequent. Patients on PD also had the highest risk of 30-day post-operative mortality following the different types of GI surgery, with the risk being more than 2-fold higher after emergency surgery compared with elective procedures. Infective postoperative complications were more common than cardiac complications. This study also observed a U-shaped association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality, with a nadir in the 30 to 35 kg/m2 group. Conclusions: Patients on chronic KRT have high rates of GI surgery and morbidity, particularly in those who receive PD, are older, or are either underweight or moderately obese. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Introduction: Umbilical hernia is common in patients with cirrhosis; however, there is a paucity of dedicated studies on postoperative outcomes in this group of patients. This population-based cohort study aimed to determine the outcomes after emergency and elective umbilical hernia repair in patients with cirrhosis. Methods: Two linked electronic healthcare databases from England were used to identify all patients undergoing umbilical hernia repair between January 2000 and December 2017. Patients were grouped into those with and without cirrhosis and stratified by severity into compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Length of stay, readmission, 90-day case fatality rate and the odds ratio of 90-day postoperative mortality were defined using logistic regression. Results: In total, 22,163 patients who underwent an umbilical hernia repair were included and 297 (1.34%) had cirrhosis. More patients without cirrhosis had an elective procedure, 86% compared with 51% of those with cirrhosis (P < 0.001). In both the elective and emergency settings, patients with cirrhosis had longer hospital length of stay (elective: 0 vs 1 day, emergency: 2 vs 4 days, P < 0.0001) and higher readmission rates (elective: 4.87% vs 11.33%, emergency:11.39% vs 29.25%, P < 0.0001) than those without cirrhosis. The 90-day case fatality rates were 2% and 0.16% in the elective setting, and 19% and 2.96% in the emergency setting in patients with and without cirrhosis respectively. Conclusion: Emergency umbilical hernia repair in patients with cirrhosis is associated with poorer outcomes in terms of length of stay, readmissions and mortality at 90 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Currently, surgical resection is considered the best treatment available for early-stage lung cancer. In recent decades, minimally invasive procedures have revolutionized thoracic surgery, expanding the benefited patient population by reducing morbidity and mortality rates, incidence of complications, length of hospital stay and postoperative pain.(1) However, lung resections remain associated with significant morbidity and mortality, with national studies indicating a complication rate of 21.8% and an in-hospital mortality rate of 1.8% for video-assisted surgeries.(2) Concomitantly, various non-surgical approaches have emerged as effective therapeutic alternatives, such as stereotactic body radiation therapy. In this scenario, the importance of adequately evaluating patients and referring high-risk cases to other lines of treatment is evidenced. Mortality risk prediction models have been progressively applied as aids to this process. Recent guidelines, such as those from the British Thoracic Society and the National Institute for Clinical Excellence, advocate the use of these models as part of the selection criteria for patients undergoing elective surgeries.(3) Among the various models developed in the last 30 years, the most well-established are the European Society Objective Score, Brunelli, Thoracoscore, Modified Thoracoscore, Eurolung and Modified Eurolung. Although some of these models have been externally validated after their development, contemporary validations are lacking. Four out of these 6 models were developed using only data from patients operated before 2007 and, with current technological advances and improvement of surgical outcomes, these models are in a constant process of performance loss. Objective: This study aims to evaluate the performance of six postoperative mortality prediction models (European Society Objective Score, Brunelli, Thoracoscore, Modified Thoracoscore, Eurolung, and Modified Eurolung) applied to a national and contemporary database. Methods: For the analysis, data was extracted from the Brazilian Registry of Surgical Treatment of Lung Cancer, a multicenter database which currently includes data from 2,476 patients with lung cancer who underwent resection with curative intent between 2002 and 2023. Patients missing data for any essential variable ("sex", "age", "type of surgical access", "type of lung resection", "status at discharge" and "status at 30 days") or for more than 15% of other variables relevant to this study were excluded. For each model, the AUC-ROC was calculated and bootstrap technique was applied to establish confidence intervals. Results: The database after the cleaning process included 1,832 patients. The mortality rates were 2.29% in-hospital, 3.28% after 30 days, and 4.48% after 90 days. The average survival was 35.90 months and the median survival was 26.84. Table 1 details a descriptive analysis of the study population regarding the variables applied by the benchmark models. ROC curves with AUC and 95%-CI for each model are represented in figure 1. The AUC obtained were: 0.65 (±0.15) for Thoracoscore; 0.66 (± 0.23) for European Society Objective Score; 0.68 (±0.17) for Modified Thoracoscore; 0.74 (±0.11) for Brunelli; 0.77 (±0.08) for Modified Eurolung; and 0.79 (±0.08) for Eurolung. Conclusion: Considering a prediction model with AUC of 0.50-0.69 as poor, 0.70-0.79 as acceptable and =0.80 as excellent, the only models with acceptable performance were Brunelli, Modified Eurolung and Eurolung. Furthermore, the two most recent models had the highest performances, which highlights the impact that recent advances in thoracic surgery have had on the predictive performance of older models. With these observations, the importance of developing more accurate mortality prediction models becomes evident. Machine learning is a promising tool for this purpose, to be addressed in future studies by this group, with the distinguishing feature of allowing continuous update and improvement of models as the database used is expanded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The objective of this study was to compare postoperative 90-day mortality between (1) fully vaccinated patients with COVID- 19-positive and negative diagnosis, and (2) vaccinated and unvaccinated patients with COVID-19 positive diagnosis. Background: Societal guidelines recommend postponing elective operations for at least 7 weeks in unvaccinated patients with preoperative coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. The role of vaccination in this infection-operation time risk is unclear. Methods: We conducted a national US multicenter retrospective, matched cohort study spanning July 2021 to October 2022. Participants were included if they underwent a high-risk general, vascular, orthopedic, neurosurgery, or genitourinary surgery. All-cause mortality occurring within 90 days of the index operation was the primary outcome. Inverse probability treatment weighted propensity scores were used to adjust logistic regression models examining the independent and interactive associations between mortality, exposure status, and infection proximity. Results: Of 3401 fully vaccinated patients in the 8-week preoperative period, 437 (12.9%) were COVID-19--positive. Unadjusted mortality rates were not significantly different between vaccinated patients with COVID-19 (22, 5.0%) and vaccinated patients without COVID-19 (99, 3.3%; P = 0.07). After inverse probability treatment weighted adjustment, mortality risk was not significantly different between vaccinated COVID-19--positive patients compared to vaccinated patients without COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.70, 2.72). The proximity of COVID-19 diagnosis to the index operation did not confer added mortality risk in either comparison cohort. Conclusions: Contrary to risks observed among unvaccinated patients, postoperative mortality does not differ between patients with and without COVID-19 when vaccinated against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus and receiving a high-risk operation within 8 weeks of the diagnosis, regardless of operation timing relative to diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim of the study: This study aims to evaluate supervised machine learning algorithms in predicting 90 days post-operative mortality in gastrointestinal and HPB surgeries and comparing them with standard logistic regression methods. Methods: We evaluated various supervised machine learning classification algorithms like gradient boosting, K-nearest neighbours, random forest, and support vector machines with standard logistic regression methods. We used accuracy and the Receiver operating curve to compare the methods. 60% of the data were used for training, 20% for validation and 20% for testing. We used JASP 0.16.04 by the University of Amsterdam to run machine learning algorithms and statistical analysis. Results: We used data from 504 patients who have undergone gastrointestinal and hepatopancreatic biliary surgery between April 2016 and March 2023. We analyzed algorithms for predicting 90 days post-operative mortality based on features like Major surgeries, Surgeries for malignancies, age, CDC grade of surgeries, Intraoperative hypotension, Open vs Laparoscopic surgeries, ASA grade, Emergency surgeries, Operative time, Intraoperative blood product used, colorectal surgeries, small intestinal surgeries, HPB surgeries, upper gastrointestinal surgeries and hernia. Test accuracies were 96% for gradient boosting, 90% for K-nearest neighbours, 96% for the random forest, 94% for support vector and Areas under the ROC curve were 0.802 for gradient boosting, 0.489 for K-nearest neighbours, 0.934 for random forest and 0.5 for support vector algorithms. Accuracy and Area under the ROC curve with standard logistic regression method were 94% and 0.757. Features of importance in decreasing order were ASA, operative times, blood products, small bowel surgeries and Age. Conclusion: Supervised machine learning algorithms particularly gradient boosting and random forest predicted 90 days postoperative mortality more accurately than logistic regression and such models can be part of the preoperative evaluation in gastrointestinal and HPB surgeries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Hip fractures frequently necessitate hospitalization, especially among patients aged 75 and above who might concurrently suffer from aortic stenosis (AS). This study focuses on postoperative outcomes, potential determinants of morbidity and mortality, as well as evolving trends in patients with AS undergoing surgical repair of hip fractures. Methods A retrospective analysis of the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2008 to 2019 was conducted. Hip fracture cases were identified, and a subgroup with AS was isolated using the ICD-9 and ICD-10 diagnostic codes. We compared baseline characteristics, postoperative in-hospital outcomes and trends in mortality and morbidity between patients with and without AS. Results From the dataset, 2,834,919 patients with hip fracture were identified on weighted analysis. Of these, 94,270 (3.3%) were found to have concurrent AS. The AS cohort was characterized by higher mean age and elevated burden of cardiovascular comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, peripheral vascular disease, pulmonary hypertension, congestive heart failure and cardiac arrhythmias. Postoperative mortality following hip fracture surgery was greater in the AS groups compared to non-AS group (3.3% vs 1.57%, p

Background: Assessing frailty is important in treating surgical patients to predict peri- and postoperative events like complications or mortality. The current standard is not optimal; therefore, new prognostic markers are being evaluated to enrich the current frailty assessment. One of these new markers is fat degeneration of the psoas muscle (myosteatosis). This can be assessed by measuring the psoas muscle density (PMD) with computed tomography (CT). The aim of this review is to investigate PMD, and, thus, myosteatosis, as a prognostic marker for postoperative mortality in adult patients undergoing general surgery. Methods: An electronic search was performed in PubMed to identify relevant studies associating PMD with postoperative mortality. The looked-upon period for mortality to occur did not matter for this review. The looked-upon outcome measure for this review was the hazard ratio. Results: From 659 potential articles from PubMed, 12 were included, for a total of 4834 participants. Articles were excluded when not focused on PMD, if the type of intervention was not specified, and when imaging other than with CT on the level of the third vertebra was performed. The included articles were assessed for bias with the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS). PMD was, after multivariable analyses, identified as an independent significant prognostic marker for several surgical cardiovascular interventions when we looked at the 5-year mortality rate and for fenestrated branched endovascular aortic repair (F-BEVAR) a slight significant protective correlation between postoperative mortality and PMD (when divided by psoas muscle area (PMI)) when we looked at the 30-day and 3-year mortality. Also, PMD was identified as an independent significant prognostic marker for a variety of surgical gastrointestinal interventions when we looked at 30-day/90-day/1-year/3-year/5-year mortality. PMD was not identified as a significant prognostic marker in urologic surgery. Conclusion: Myosteatosis has the potential to be a valuable contribution to the current frailty assessment for patients undergoing cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, or urologic surgery. However, more research must be conducted to further strengthen the prognostic value of myosteatosis, with special attention to, e.g., gender- or age-specific interpretations of the results.

Background: Assessing frailty is important in treating surgical patients to predict peri- and postoperative events like complications or mortality. The current standard is not optimal; therefore, new prognostic markers are being evaluated to enrich the current frailty assessment. One of these new markers is fat degeneration of the psoas muscle (myosteatosis). This can be assessed by measuring the psoas muscle density (PMD) with computed tomography (CT). The aim of this review is to investigate PMD, and, thus, myosteatosis, as a prognostic marker for postoperative mortality in adult patients undergoing general surgery. Methods: An electronic search was performed in PubMed to identify relevant studies associating PMD with postoperative mortality. The looked-upon period for mortality to occur did not matter for this review. The looked-upon outcome measure for this review was the hazard ratio. Results: From 659 potential articles from PubMed, 12 were included, for a total of 4834 participants. Articles were excluded when not focused on PMD, if the type of intervention was not specified, and when imaging other than with CT on the level of the third vertebra was performed. The included articles were assessed for bias with the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS). PMD was, after multivariable analyses, identified as an independent significant prognostic marker for several surgical cardiovascular interventions when we looked at the 5-year mortality rate and for fenestrated branched endovascular aortic repair (F-BEVAR) a slight significant protective correlation between postoperative mortality and PMD (when divided by psoas muscle area (PMI)) when we looked at the 30-day and 3-year mortality. Also, PMD was identified as an independent significant prognostic marker for a variety of surgical gastrointestinal interventions when we looked at 30-day/90-day/1-year/3-year/5-year mortality. PMD was not identified as a significant prognostic marker in urologic surgery. Conclusion: Myosteatosis has the potential to be a valuable contribution to the current frailty assessment for patients undergoing cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, or urologic surgery. However, more research must be conducted to further strengthen the prognostic value of myosteatosis, with special attention to, e.g., gender- or age-specific interpretations of the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of our study was to report about the clinical outcomes of patients who underwent major surgery for cancer and developed COVID-19 in the postoperative period. A retrospective and observational study was done in the Surgical Oncology Division of a tertiary care cancer hospital in North-East India. The study period was from 1st April 2020 to 31st December 2021. Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of cancer who underwent a major surgery and developed COVID-19 in the postoperative period, within the same hospital stay were included in the study. Data was obtained from a prospectively maintained database and case records. Descriptive statistics were used to state the results in median values, range and percentages. A total of 22 patients developed COVID-19 in the postoperative period during the study period out of a total of 1402 patients operated during that time period (1.57%). The have been followed up for a median period of 16 months (range 2 to 18 months). The median age at presentation was 50 years (range 25 to 74 years). The incidence of co-morbidities was 27.3%. The median duration of ICU stay was 3 days (range 0 to 9 days) and median duration of hospital stay was 22 days (range 9 to 55 days).. The postoperative mortality rate was 18.2%. COVID-19 in the postoperative period in patients undergoing major abdominal and thoracic surgeries for cancer caused high postoperative mortality and prolonged hospital stay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hip fractures frequently necessitate hospitalization, especially among patients aged 75 and above who might concurrently suffer from aortic stenosis (AS). This study focuses on postoperative outcomes, potential determinants of morbidity and mortality, as well as evolving trends in patients with AS undergoing surgical repair of hip fractures. Methods: A retrospective analysis of the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2008 to 2019 was conducted. Hip fracture cases were identified, and a subgroup with AS was isolated using the ICD-9 and ICD-10 diagnostic codes. We compared baseline characteristics, postoperative in-hospital outcomes and trends in mortality and morbidity between patients with and without AS. Results: From the dataset, 2,834,919 patients with hip fracture were identified on weighted analysis. Of these, 94,270 (3.3%) were found to have concurrent AS. The AS cohort was characterized by higher mean age and elevated burden of cardiovascular comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, peripheral vascular disease, pulmonary hypertension, congestive heart failure and cardiac arrhythmias. Postoperative mortality following hip fracture surgery was greater in the AS groups compared to non-AS group (3.3% vs 1.57%, p < 0.001). Risk factors such as congestive heart failure (OR, 2.3[CI, 2.1–2.6]), age above 85 years (OR, 3.2[CI, 2.2–4.7]), cardiac arrhythmias (OR, 2.4[CI, 2.2–2.6]), end-stage renal disease (OR, 3.4[CI, 2.7–4.1]), malnutrition (OR, 2.3[CI, 2.1–2.7]) and AS (OR, 1.2[CI, 1.08–1.5] were associated with increased adjusted odds of postoperative mortality. AS was linked to higher adjusted odds of postoperative mortality (OR, 1.2 [CI, 1.1–1.5]) and complications such as acute myocardial infarction (OR, 1.2 [CI, 1.01–1.4]), cardiogenic shock (OR, 2.0[CI, 1.4–2.9]) and acute renal failure (OR, 1.1[CI, 1.02–1.2]). While hospital stay duration was comparable in both groups (average 5 days), the AS group incurred higher costs (mean $50,673 vs $44,607). The presence of acute heart failure in patients with AS and hip fracture significantly increased mortality, hospital stay, and cost. A notable decline in postoperative in-hospital mortality was observed in both groups from 2008–2019 though the rate of major in-hospital complications rose. Conclusion: AS significantly influences postoperative in-hospital mortality and complication rates in hip fracture patients. While a reduction in postoperative mortality was observed in both AS and non-AS cohorts, the incidence of major in-hospital complications increased across both groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The probability of death after emergency laparotomy varies greatly between patients. Accurate pre‐operative risk prediction is fundamental to planning care and improving outcomes. We aimed to develop a model limited to a few pre‐operative factors that performed well irrespective of surgical indication: obstruction; sepsis; ischaemia; bleeding; and other. We derived a model with data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit for patients who had emergency laparotomy between December 2016 and November 2018. We tested the model on patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between December 2018 and November 2019. There were 4077/40,816 (10%) deaths 30 days after surgery in the derivation cohort. The final model had 13 pre‐operative variables: surgical indication; age; blood pressure; heart rate; respiratory history; urgency; biochemical markers; anticipated malignancy; anticipated peritoneal soiling; and ASA physical status. The predicted mortality probability deciles ranged from 0.1% to 47%. There were 1888/11,187 deaths in the test cohort. The scaled Brier score, integrated calibration index and concordance for the model were 20%, 0.006 and 0.86, respectively. Model metrics were similar for the five surgical indications. In conclusion, we think that this prognostic model is suitable to support decision‐making before emergency laparotomy as well as for risk adjustment for comparing organisations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: This study investigates the prognostic significance of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels in predicting early postoperative mortality in patients who have undergone colorectal cancer surgery. Methods: Between 2017 and 2022, total of 325 patients were enrolled in the study, and their preoperative serum CEA levels were measured. Relevant clinical and operative data were extracted and correlations between CEA levels and postoperative mortality was analysed. Results: Among the surgical cases, 180 patients (55.3%) exhibited elevated CEA levels. Within the early postoperative period of 30 days, 14 patients (4.3%) succumbed, comprising 8 cases (2.4%) of colon cancer and 6 cases (1.8%) of rectal cancer. Notably, only 3 cases (0.9%), consisting of 1 (0.3%) colon cancer and 2 (0.6%) rectal cancer cases, were associated with an elevated CEA level. However, no statistically significant correlations were observed between CEA levels and early postoperative mortality. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that increased CEA levels may not serve as a reliable non-invasive marker for identifying patients at high risk of early mortality in the context of colo-rectal cancer surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PurposeA retrospective cohort study was performed to determine the effect of nerve block on the incidence of postoperative mortality in patients with hip replacement.MethodsAccording to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, patients who were undergoing hip replacement for the first time under general or intraspinal anesthesia, classified as ASA class I–IV, and aged ≥65 years were selected. We collected the general data, past medical history, preoperative laboratory test results, perioperative fluid intake and outflow data, perioperative anesthesia and related drug data, postoperative laboratory results, and correlation time index. Patients with preoperative combined nerve block were included in the N group, and those without combined nerve block were included in the NN group. The patients were followed up via telephone call to assess survival outcomes at 3 years after surgery. Propensity score matching and uni- and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the influence of nerve block and other related factors on postoperative mortality.ResultsA total of 743 patients were included in this study, including 262 in the N group and 481 in the NN group. Two hundred five patients in both groups remained after propensity score matching. Main result: Preoperative nerve block was associated with reduced mortality three years after surgery.ConclusionNerve block reduces the incidence of 3-year postoperative mortality, and composite nerve block with general anesthesia and neuraxial anesthesia is worthy of promotion.

BackgroundPatients undergoing surgery for early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be at high risk for postoperative mortality. Access to stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) may facilitate more appropriate patient selection for surgery.Research questionIs postoperative mortality associated with early stage NSCLC lower at facilities with higher use of SBRT?Study design and methodsPatients with early stage NSCLC reported to the National Cancer Database between 2004 and 2015 were included. Use of SBRT was defined by each facility's SBRT experience (in years) and SBRT to surgery volume ratios. Multivariate logistic regression was used to test for the associations between SBRT use and postoperative mortality.ResultsThe study cohort consisted of 202,542 patients who underwent surgical resection of cT1-T2N0M0 NSCLC tumors. The 90-day postoperative mortality rate declined during the study period from 4.6% to 2.6% (P < .001), the proportion of facilities that used SBRT increased from 4.6% to 77.5% (P < .001), and the proportion of patients treated with SBRT increased from 0.7% to 15.4% (P < .001). On multivariate analysis, lower 90-day postoperative mortality rates were observed at facilities with > 6 years of SBRT experience (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.76-0.94; P = .003) and SBRT to surgery volume ratios of more than 17% (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.79-0.92; P < .001). Ninety-day mortality also was associated with surgical volume, region, year, age, sex, and race, among other covariates. Interaction testing between these covariates showed negative results.InterpretationPatients who underwent resection for early stage NSCLC at facilities with higher SBRT use showed lower rates of postoperative mortality. These findings suggest that the availability and use of SBRT may improve the selection of patients for surgery who are predicted to be at high risk of postoperative mortality.

Aim: Today, there is an increase in cancer incidence and cancer-related deaths in the elderly population. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) levels on the survival rate in elderly patients diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Material and Methods: A total of 73 patients (aged ≥70 years) who operated for NSCLC between 2012 and 2018 were included in this study. Patient records were analyzed retrospectively. The NLR value was calculated with the blood neutrophil count/lymphocyte count formula. The cut-off value for NLR was considered as 2.5. The PNI value was calculated as 10 x serum albumin (g/dL) + 0.005 × total lymphocyte count (per millimeter). PNI values lower than 50 were considered as low. Results: The mean age of the patients was 74.15±3.23 years, 59 (80.8%) patients were male and 14 (19.2%) were female. No statistically significant relation of postoperative complication was noted with PNI (p=0.354) and NLR (p=0.483). Postoperative mortality was not significantly associated with PNI (p=0.188) and NLR (p=0.465). For patients with NLR 2.5 (p=0.028). Conclusion: Results revealed a significant association of NLR with survival rates in elderly patients with NSCLC. NLR can be considered inexpensive, easily measurable, and reproducible marker that can be incorporated into routine clinical practice for guiding and optimizing treatment decisions in patients with NSCLC.

Background and Objective: Lung transplantation is the only life-extending therapy for end-stage pulmonary disease patients, but its risks necessitate an understanding of outcome predictors, with the frailty index and nutritional status being key assessment tools. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between preoperative frailty and nutritional indexes and the postoperative mortality rate in patients receiving lung transplants, and to determine which measure is a more potent predictor of outcomes. Materials and Methods: This study reviewed 185 adults who received lung transplants at a single medical center between January 2013 and May 2023. We primarily focused on postoperative 7-year overall survival. Other outcomes measured were short-term mortalities, acute rejection, kidney complications, infections, and re-transplantation. We compared the predictive abilities of preoperative nutritional and frailty indicators for survival using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and identified factors affecting survival through regression analyses. Results: There were no significant differences in preoperative nutritional indicators between survivors and non-survivors. However, preoperative frailty indicators did differ significantly between these groups. Multivariate analysis revealed that the American Society of Anesthesiologists Class V, clinical frailty scale, and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were key predictors of 7-year overall survival. Of these, the CCI had the strongest predictive ability with an area under the curve of 0.755, followed by the modified frailty index at 0.731. Conclusions: Our study indicates that for critically ill patients undergoing lung transplantation, frailty indexes derived from preoperative patient history and functional autonomy are more effective in forecasting postoperative outcomes, including survival, than indexes related to preoperative nutritional status.

Abstract Background Prediction of preoperative frailty risk in the emergency setting is a challenging issue because preoperative evaluation cannot be done sufficiently. In a previous study, the preoperative frailty risk prediction model used only diagnostic and operation codes for emergency surgery and found poor predictive performance. This study developed a preoperative frailty prediction model using machine learning techniques that can be used in various clinical settings with improved predictive performance. Methods This is a national cohort study including 22,448 patients who were older than 75 years and visited the hospital for emergency surgery from the cohort of older patients among the retrieved sample from the Korean National Health Insurance Service. The diagnostic and operation codes were one-hot encoded and entered into the predictive model using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) as a machine learning technique. The predictive performance of the model for postoperative 90-day mortality was compared with those of previous frailty evaluation tools such as Operation Frailty Risk Score (OFRS) and Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results The predictive performance of the XGBoost, OFRS, and HFRS for postoperative 90-day mortality was 0.840, 0.607, and 0.588 on a c-statistics basis, respectively. Conclusions Using machine learning techniques, XGBoost to predict postoperative 90-day mortality, using diagnostic and operation codes, the prediction performance was improved significantly over the previous risk assessment models such as OFRS and HFRS.

BackgroundWith the dramatic growth in the aged population observed in developed and developing nations, the older population burdened by unmet demand for surgical treatment has become a significant yet unnoticed public health concern in resource-limited countries. Studies are limited regarding surgical mortality of geriatric patients in Africa. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the incidence and identify predictors of postoperative mortality using prospective data in a low-income country, Ethiopia.Methods and materialsA prospective cohort study was conducted from June 01, 2019, to June 30, 2021, at a tertiary-level hospital in Ethiopia. Perioperative data were collected using an electronic data collection tool. Cox regression analysis was used to identify predictor variables. The association between predictors and postoperative mortality among geriatrics was computed using a hazard ratio (HR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI); p-value

Introduction: The mortality risk after appendicectomy in patients with liver cirrhosis is predicted to be higher than in the general population given the associated risk of perioperative bleeding, infections and liver decompensation. This population-based cohort study aimed to determine the 90-day mortality risk following emergency appendicectomy in patients with cirrhosis. Methods: Adult patients undergoing emergency appendicectomy in England between January 2001 and December 2018 were identified from two linked primary and secondary electronic healthcare databases, the clinical practice research datalink and hospital episode statistics data. Length of stay, re-admission, case fatality and the odds ratio of 90-day mortality were calculated for patients with and without cirrhosis, adjusting for age, sex and co-morbidity using logistic regression. Results: A total of 40,353 patients underwent appendicectomy and of these 75 (0.19%) had cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis were more likely to be older (p < 0.0001) and have comorbidities (p < 0.0001). Proportionally, more patients with cirrhosis underwent an open appendicectomy (76%) compared with 64% of those without cirrhosis (p = 0.03). The 90-day case fatality rate was 6.67% in patients with cirrhosis compared with 0.56% in patients without cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis had longer hospital length of stay (4 (IQR 3–9) days versus 3 (IQR 2–4) days and higher readmission rates at 90 days (20% vs 11%, p = 0.019). Most importantly, their odds of death at 90 days were 3 times higher than patients without cirrhosis, adjusted odds ratio 3.75 (95% CI 1.35–10.49). Conclusion: Patients with cirrhosis have a threefold increased odds of 90-day mortality after emergency appendicectomy compared to those without cirrhosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rectal cancer is estimated to increase due to an expanding aging population, thus affecting elderly patients more frequently. The optimal surgical treatment for this type of patient remains controversial because they are often excluded from or underrepresented in trials. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the feasibility and the safety of robotic surgery in elderly patients (>70 years old) undergoing curative treatment for rectal cancer. Studies comparing elderly (E) and young (Y) patients submitted to robotic rectal resection were searched on PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. Data regarding surgical oncologic quality, post-operative, and survival outcomes were extracted. Overall, 322 patients underwent robotic resection (81 in the E group and 241 in the Y group) for rectal cancer. No differences between the two groups were found regarding distal margins and the number of nodes yielded (12.70 in the E group vs. 14.02 in the Y group, p = 0.16). No differences were found in conversion rate, postoperative morbidity, mortality, and length of stay. Survival outcomes were only reported in one study. The results of this study suggest that elderly patients can be submitted to robotic resection for rectal cancer with the same oncologic surgical quality offered to young patients, without increasing postoperative mortality and morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) patients are at higher risk of postoperative complications. We analyzed the association of PH with 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs). Methods: A single-center propensity score overlap weighting (OW) retrospective cohort study was conducted on 164 patients with a mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP) of >20 mmHg within 24 months of undergoing elective inpatient abdominal surgery or endoscopic procedures under general anesthesia and a control cohort (N = 1981). The primary outcome was PPCs, and the secondary outcomes were PPC sub-composites, namely respiratory failure (RF), pneumonia (PNA), aspiration pneumonia/pneumonitis (ASP), pulmonary embolism (PE), length of stay (LOS), and 30-day mortality. Results: PPCs were higher in the PH cohort (29.9% vs. 11.2%, p < 0.001). When sub-composites were analyzed, higher rates of RF (19.3% vs. 6.6%, p < 0.001) and PNA (11.2% vs. 5.7%, p = 0.01) were observed. After OW, PH was still associated with greater PPCs (RR 1.66, 95% CI (1.05–2.71), p = 0.036) and increased LOS (median 8.0 days vs. 4.9 days) but not 30-day mortality. Sub-cohort analysis showed no difference in PPCs between pre- and post-capillary PH patients. Conclusions: After covariate balancing, PH was associated with a higher risk for PPCs and prolonged LOS. This elevated PPC risk should be considered during preoperative risk assessment.

Purpose: Frailty is a condition characterized by a reduced ability to adapt to external stressors because of a reduced physiologic reserve, which contributes to the high risk of postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients. This study aims to investigate how frailty is associated with the specific causes of mortality in hip fracture patients. Methods: All adult patients in Sweden who suffered a traumatic hip fracture and underwent surgery between 2008 and 2017 were eligible for inclusion. The Orthopedic Hip Frailty Score (OFS) was used to classify patients as non-frail (OFS 0), pre-frail (OFS 1), and frail (OFS ≥ 2). The association between the degree of frailty and both all-cause and cause-specific mortality was determined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors and presented using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for potential sources of confounding. Results: After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 127,305 patients remained for further analysis. 23.9% of patients were non-frail, 27.7% were pre-frail, and 48.3% were frail. Frail patients exhibited a 4 times as high risk of all-cause mortality 30 days [adj. IRR (95% CI): 3.80 (3.36–4.30), p < 0.001] and 90 days postoperatively [adj. IRR (95% CI): 3.88 (3.56–4.23), p < 0.001] as non-frail patients. Of the primary causes of 30-day mortality, frailty was associated with a tripling in the risk of cardiovascular [adj. IRR (95% CI): 3.24 (2.64–3.99), p < 0.001] and respiratory mortality [adj. IRR (95% CI): 2.60 (1.96–3.45), p < 0.001] as well as a five-fold increase in the risk of multiorgan failure [adj. IRR (95% CI): 4.99 (3.95–6.32), p < 0.001]. Conclusion: Frailty is associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality at 30 and 90 days postoperatively. Across both timepoints, cardiovascular and respiratory events along with multiorgan failure were the most prevalent causes of mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prediction of preoperative frailty risk in the emergency setting is a challenging issue because preoperative evaluation cannot be done sufficiently. In a previous study, the preoperative frailty risk prediction model used only diagnostic and operation codes for emergency surgery and found poor predictive performance. This study developed a preoperative frailty prediction model using machine learning techniques that can be used in various clinical settings with improved predictive performance. Methods: This is a national cohort study including 22,448 patients who were older than 75 years and visited the hospital for emergency surgery from the cohort of older patients among the retrieved sample from the Korean National Health Insurance Service. The diagnostic and operation codes were one-hot encoded and entered into the predictive model using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) as a machine learning technique. The predictive performance of the model for postoperative 90-day mortality was compared with those of previous frailty evaluation tools such as Operation Frailty Risk Score (OFRS) and Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: The predictive performance of the XGBoost, OFRS, and HFRS for postoperative 90-day mortality was 0.840, 0.607, and 0.588 on a c-statistics basis, respectively. Conclusions: Using machine learning techniques, XGBoost to predict postoperative 90-day mortality, using diagnostic and operation codes, the prediction performance was improved significantly over the previous risk assessment models such as OFRS and HFRS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Failure to rescue (FTR) patients with postoperative complications contribute to a significant proportion of postoperative mortality. Our main objective was to determine the risk factors for FTR among patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy who suffered a life-threatening complication requiring intensive care unit (ICU) management. Materials and Methods: Consecutive patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2011 to 2020 were reviewed retrospectively. Causes of organ failure were described as the one that most commonly contributed to patient's transfer to ICU or death. Two groups were created based on whether patients had FTR and risk factors for FTR were compared. The impact of baseline characteristics, operative characteristics, and risk scoring on FTR was analyzed using multiple logistic regression. Results: There were 19/58 (33%) FTR patients. Baseline, operative characteristics, postoperative complications, and length of hospital and ICU stay were similar between groups. However, a higher proportion of FTR patients experienced a postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) (16% vs 2.6%, P =.062). Among patients who experienced a POPF, the FTR group had a trend in delayed time from diagnosis to treatment (7 vs 23 hours, P =.131). Renal complications (OR 6.12, 95% CI, 1.23 to 38.43, P =.035) and time from POPF diagnosis to treatment (OR 1.05, 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.11, P =.036) were independent predictors of FTR by multivariable analysis. Conclusion: The occurrence of certain postoperative complications such as renal complications as well as delayed timing of the management of POPF is predictive of FTR following pancreaticoduodenectomy, especially as delayed timing to treatment is a risk factor for FTR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anastomotic leak (AL) is a common but severe complication after esophagectomy, and over 10% of patients with AL suffer mortality. Different prognostic factors in patients with AL are known, but a tool to predict mortality after AL is lacking. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for postoperative mortality in patients with AL after esophagectomy. TENTACLE—Esophagus is an international retrospective cohort study, which included 1509 patients with AL after esophagectomy. The primary outcome was 90-day postoperative mortality. Previously identified prognostic factors for mortality were selected as predictors: patient-related (e.g. comorbidity, performance status) and leak-related predictors (e.g. leucocyte count, overall gastric conduit condition). The prediction model was developed using multivariable logistic regression and validated internally using bootstrapping. Among the 1509 patients with AL, 90-day mortality was 11.7%. Sixteen predictors were included in the prediction model. The model showed good performance after internal validation: the c-index was 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.75–0.83). Predictions for mortality by the internally validated model aligned well with observed 90-day mortality rates. The prediction model was incorporated in an online tool for individual use and can be found at: https://www.tentaclestudy.com/prediction-model. The developed prediction model combines patient-related and leak-related factors to accurately predict postoperative mortality in patients with AL after esophagectomy. The model is useful for clinicians during counselling of patients and their families and may aid identification of high-risk patients at diagnosis of AL. In the future, the tool may guide clinical decision-making; however, external validation of the tool is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Today, there is an increase in cancer incidence and cancer-related deaths in the elderly population. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) levels on the survival rate in elderly patients diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Material and Methods: A total of 73 patients (aged ≥70 years) who operated for NSCLC between 2012 and 2018 were included in this study. Patient records were analyzed retrospectively. The NLR value was calculated with the blood neutrophil count/lymphocyte count formula. The cut-off value for NLR was considered as 2.5. The PNI value was calculated as 10 x serum albumin (g/dL) + 0.005 x total lymphocyte count (per millimeter). PNI values lower than 50 were considered as low. Results: The mean age of the patients was 74.15±3.23 years, 59 (80.8%) patients were male and 14 (19.2%) were female. No statistically significant relation of postoperative complication was noted with PNI (p=0.354) and NLR (p=0.483). Postoperative mortality was not significantly associated with PNI (p=0.188) and NLR (p=0.465). For patients with NLR <2.5, 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were at 86.0%, 86.1%, and 78.3%, respectively, while these rates were at 76.9%, 65.2%, and 24.8%, respectively, for patients with NLR >2.5 (p=0.028). Conclusion: Results revealed a significant association of NLR with survival rates in elderly patients with NSCLC. NLR can be considered inexpensive, easily measurable, and reproducible marker that can be incorporated into routine clinical practice for guiding and optimizing treatment decisions in patients with NSCLC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Postoperative mortality is an important indicator for evaluating surgical safety. Postoperative mortality is influenced by hospital volume; however, this association is not fully understood. This study aimed to investigate the volume-outcome association between the hospital surgical case volume for gastrectomies per year (hospital volume) and the risk of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing a gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Methods: Studies assessing the association between hospital volume and the postoperative mortality in patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer were searched for eligibility. Odds ratios were pooled for the highest versus lowest categories of hospital volume using a random-effects model. The volume-outcome association between hospital volume and the risk of postoperative mortality was analyzed. The study protocol was registered with Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO). Results: Thirty studies including 586 993 participants were included. The risk of postgastrectomy mortality in patients with gastric cancer was 35% lower in hospitals with higher surgical case volumes than in their lower-volume counterparts (odds ratio: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.56-0.76; P <0.001). This relationship was consistent and robust in most subgroup analyses. Volume-outcome analysis found that the postgastrectomy mortality rate remained stable or was reduced after the hospital volume reached a plateau of 100 gastrectomy cases per year. Conclusions: The current findings suggest that a higher-volume hospital can reduce the risk of postgastrectomy mortality in patients with gastric cancer, and that greater than or equal to 100 gastrectomies for gastric cancer per year may be defined as a high hospital surgical case volume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Quality standards in postoperative outcomes have not yet been defined for gastric cancer surgery. Also, the effect of centralization of gastric cancer surgery on the improvement of postoperative outcomes continues to be debated. Short-term postoperative outcomes in gastric carcinoma patients in centers with low-volume of annual gastrectomies were assessed. The effect of age on major postoperative morbidity and mortality was also analyzed. Methods Patients with gastric or gastroesophageal junction Siewert III type carcinomas who underwent surgical treatment with curative intent between January 2013 and December 2016 were included. Data were obtained from the population-based surgical registry Esophagogastric Carcinoma Registry of the Comunitat Valenciana (RECEG-CV). The RECEG-CV gathers information on demographic characteristics and comorbidity, preoperative study and neoadjuvant treatment, surgical procedure, pathological study, postoperative outcomes, and follow-up. Seventeen hospitals belonging to the public network participated in this registry. Results Data from 591 patients were analyzed. Postoperative major morbidity occurred in 154 (26.1%) patients. Overall 30-day or in-hospital mortality, and 90-day postoperative mortality rates were 8.6% and 10.1% respectively. Failure-to-rescue was 39% and it was significantly higher in patients aged 75 years or older in comparison with younger patients (55.3% vs 23.1% p < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, age ≥ 75 years (p = 0.029), laparoscopic approach (p = 0.005), and total gastrectomy (p = 0.005) were associated with major postoperative morbidity. Age ≥ 75 years (p = 0.027), pulmonary complications (p = 0.001), cardiac complications (p = 0.001), leakage (p = 0.003), and hemorrhage (p = 0.013) were associated with postoperative mortality. Conclusions Centralization of gastric adenocarcinoma treatment in centers with higher annual caseload should be considered to improve the short-term postoperative outcomes in low-volume centers. Patients aged 75 or older had a significantly increased risk of major postoperative morbidity and mortality, and higher failure-to-rescue.

Background: The study is devoted to the impact of a new coronavirus infection in combination with other diseases on the hospitalization outcomes. Features of mortality in the population during COVID-19 pandemic, including from blood circulatory system diseases, have been studied. However, there are few studies based on the large amount of data on the cases and outcomes of providing specialized hightech medical care to patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and concomitant diagnosis of COVID-19.Objective: The analysis of impact of a new coronavirus infection on the outcomes of hospitalization for circulatory system diseases.Material and methods: Information about more than 350 thousand cases of hospitalization of patients with blood circulatory system diseases in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic has been analyzed, of which in 1875 cases a concomitant diagnosis of COVID-19 was established. The sources of information are the depersonalized registers of compulsory health insurance accounts. For assessment of the obtained data methods of descriptive statistics, simple (unweighted) arithmetic mean values, mean values, specific weights of indicator values, a mean square (standard) deviation from mean values were used. The analysis and descriptive part of the work were carried out by means of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet software package.Results: The outcomes of hospitalization of patients with suspected or confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 were significantly worse than in other patients. Moreover, the frequency of lethal outcomes increases significantly in correlation with the age of patients and does not depend on the choice of treatment method – surgical or therapeutic.Conclusion: COVID-19 significantly complicates provision of medical care in conditions of the round-the-clock hospital for blood circulatory system diseases. The risks of surgical interventions for circulatory system diseases in combination with COVID-19 are as high as with the use of therapeutic technologies. It is necessary to unify the indications and contraindications to surgical treatment of conditions related to acute coronary syndrome in cases of the presence of such concomitant pathology as COVID-19.

Objective The aim of the study was to analyze perioperative complications and postoperative mortality in patients of acute Stanford type A aortic dissection(ATAAD)combined with cardiac tamponade (TMP). Methods In this study, we identified a total of 242 ATAAD patients who underwent surgery from January 2016 to December 2020. Of the 242 patients, 44(18.2%) patients were combined with TMP and 198(81.8%) patients without TMP. We compared perioperative complications and postoperative mortality between the two groups. Results The postoperative mortality was significantly higher in patients with TMP (29.5% vs 14.1%, p = 0.014). The incidence of postoperative acute kidney injury (75.0% vs 51.5%, p = 0.005), acute hepatic injury (45.5% vs 20.7%, p = 0.001), cerebral infarction (27.3% vs 13.1%, p = 0.020), low cardiac output syndrome (50.0% vs 33.3%, p = 0.038) and respiratory failure (36.4% vs 22.2%, p = 0.049) in patients with TMP was significantly higher than those without TMP. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that age [odds ratio(OR) 1.063, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.023∼1.105; p = 0.002], surgical time[odds ratio(OR)1.393, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.006∼1.929; p = 0.046], cardiac tamponade[odds ratio(OR)3.010, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.166∼7.767; p = 0.023], circulatory arrest time[odds ratio(OR)1.044, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.001∼1.088; p = 0.045] were independent risk factors for postoperative mortality in ATAAD patients. Conclusions Cardiac tamponade increases the difficulty of perioperative management in ATAAD patients, the incidence of postoperative complications and postoperative mortality, which requires the cooperation of anesthesiologists, intensivists and surgeons to save and improve patients’ lives.

• Pulmonary hypertension (PH) has been associated with worse postoperative outcomes. • A systematic review found 18 studies about PH and outcomes after noncardiac surgery. • PH was independently associated with a two-fold higher risk of postoperative death. • PH was associated with higher postoperative risk of cardiorespiratory morbidity. Some studies suggest that patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) may be at higher risk of complications and death after noncardiac surgery. However, the magnitude of these associations is unclear. To determine the associations between PH and adverse outcomes after noncardiac surgery. We searched PUBMED and EMBASE for studies published from January 1970 to April 2022. We included studies that reported the association between PH and one or more outcomes of interest occurring after noncardiac surgery. Data were pooled using random-effects models and reported as summary odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Eighteen studies met eligibility criteria (n=18,214,760). PH was independently associated with mortality (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.09; 95% CI, 1.51-2.90; I2=98%; 8 studies). PH was associated with a higher unadjusted risk of deep venous thrombosis (OR 4.02; 95% CI, 2.14-7.54; I2=85%; 3 studies), pulmonary embolism (OR 4.16; 95% CI, 3.23-5.36; I2=69%; 7 studies), myocardial infarction (OR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.44-1.54; I2=0%; 5 studies), congestive heart failure or cardiogenic shock (OR 3.37; 95% CI, 1.73–6.60; I2=34%; 5 studies), length of hospital stay (mean difference 1.97 days; 95% CI, 0.81–3.12; I2=99%; 5 studies), and delayed extubation (OR 5.98; 95% CI, 1.70–21.02; I2=3%; 3 studies). PH was associated with lower unadjusted risk of postoperative stroke (OR 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88–0.98; I2=0%; 3 studies). PH is a predictor of morbidity and mortality after noncardiac surgery. High quality studies are needed to determine effective strategies for reducing postoperative complications in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To study the impact of a standardized postoperative anesthesia visit on 30-day mortality in medium to high-risk elective surgical patients. Background: Postoperative complications are the leading cause of perioperative morbidity and mortality. Although modified early warning scores (MEWS) were instituted to monitor vital functions and improve postoperative outcome, we hypothesized that complementary anesthesia expertise is needed to adequately identify early deterioration. Methods: In a prospective, multicenter, stepped-wedge cluster randomized interventional study in 9 academic and nonacademic hospitals in the Netherlands, we studied the impact of adding standardized postoperative anesthesia visits on day 1 and 3 to routine use of MEWS in 5473 patients undergoing elective noncardiac surgery. Primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included: incidence of postoperative complications, length of hospital stay, and intensive care unit admission. Results: Patients were enrolled between October 2016 and August 2018. Informed consent was obtained from 5473 patients of which 5190 were eligible for statistical analyses, 2490 in the control and 2700 in the intervention group. Thirty-day mortality was 0.56% (n = 14) in the control and 0.44% (n = 12) in the intervention group (odds ratio 0.74, 95% Confidence interval 0.34–1.62). Incidence of postoperative complications did not differ between groups except for renal complications which was higher in the control group (1.7% (n = 41) vs 1.0% (n = 27), P = 0.014). Median length of hospital stay did not differ significantly between groups. During the postanesthesia visits, for 16% (n = 437) and 11% (n = 293) of patients recommendations were given on day 1 and 3, respectively, of which 67% (n = 293) and 69% (n = 202) were followed up. Conclusions: The combination of MEWS and a postoperative anesthesia visit did not reduce 30-day mortality. Whether a postoperative anesthesia visit with strong adherence to the recommendations provided and in a high-risk population might have a stronger impact on postoperative mortality remains to be determined. Trial Registration: Netherlands Trial Registration, NTR5506/ NL5249, https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/5249. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Postoperative mortality for oropharynx squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) with transoral robotic surgery (TORS) varies from 0.2% to 6.5% on trials; the real‐world rate is unknown. Methods: NCDB study from 2010 to 2017 for patients with cT1‐2N0‐2M0 OPSCC with Charleson–Deyo score 0–1. Ninety‐day mortality assessed from start and end of treatment at Commission on Cancer‐accredited facilities. Results: 3639 patients were treated with TORS and 1937 with radiotherapy. TORS cohort had more women and higher income, was younger, more often treated at academic centers, and more likely to have private insurance (all p < 0.05). Ninety‐day mortality was 1.3% with TORS and 0.7% or 1.4% from start or end of radiotherapy, respectively. From end of therapy, there was no significant difference on MVA between treatment modality. Conclusions: There is minimal difference between 90‐day mortality in patients treated with TORS or radiotherapy for early‐stage OPSCC. While overall rates are low, for patients with expectation of cure, work is needed to identify optimal treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundDiabetes mellitus is an independent risk factor for postoperative complications. It has been reported that insulin-treated diabetes is associated with increased postoperative mortality compared to non-insulin-treated diabetes after cardiac surgery; however, it is unclear whether this finding is applicable to non-cardiac surgery.ObjectiveWe aimed to assess the effects of insulin-treated and non-insulin-treated diabetes on short-term mortality after non-cardiac surgery.MethodsOur study was a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies. PubMed, CENTRAL, EMBASE, and ISI Web of Science databases were searched from inception to February 22, 2021. Cohort or case-control studies that provided information on postoperative short-term mortality in insulin-treated diabetic and non-insulin-treated diabetic patients were included. We pooled the data with a random-effects model. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation system was used to rate the quality of evidence.ResultsTwenty-two cohort studies involving 208,214 participants were included. Our study suggested that insulin-treated diabetic patients was associated with a higher risk of 30-day mortality than non-insulin-treated diabetic patients [19 studies with 197,704 patients, risk ratio (RR) 1.305; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.127 to 1.511; p < 0.001]. The studies were rated as very low quality. The new pooled result only slightly changed after seven simulated missing studies were added using the trim-and-fill method (RR, 1.260; 95% CI, 1.076–1.476; p = 0.004). Our results also showed no significant difference between insulin-treated diabetes and non-insulin-treated diabetes regarding in-hospital mortality (two studies with 9,032 patients, RR, 0.970; 95% CI, 0.584–1.611; p = 0.905).ConclusionVery-low-quality evidence suggests that insulin-treated diabetes was associated with increased 30-day mortality after non-cardiac surgery. However, this finding is non-definitive because of the influence of confounding factors.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021246752, identifier: CRD42021246752.

Abstract Background While emergency laparotomy has been associated with high rates of postoperative mortality and adverse events, preoperative systematic evaluation of patients may improve perioperative outcomes. However, due to the critical condition of the patient and the limited operation time, it is challenging to conduct a comprehensive evaluation. In recent years, sarcopenia is considered a health problem associated with an increased incidence of poor prognosis. This study aimed to investigate the effect of sarcopenia on 30-day mortality and postoperative adverse events in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. Methods We systematically searched databases including PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane for all studies comparing emergency laparotomy in patients with and without sarcopenia up to March 1, 2022. The primary outcome was of 30-day postoperative mortality. Secondary outcomes were the length of hospital stay, the incidence of adverse events, number of postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and ICU length of stay. Study and outcome-specific risk of bias were assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. We rated the certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE). Result A total of 11 eligible studies were included in this study. The results showed that patients with sarcopenia had a higher risk of death 30 days after surgery (OR = 2.42, 95% CI = 1.93–3.05, P

Abstract Background A precise evaluation of liver reserve function in patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis (HAE) prior to hepatectomy could substantially increase the success rate of the operation and reduce the incidence of postoperative complications. The present study aimed to investigate the significance of the indocyanine green retention test at 15 min (ICG-R15) and the Albumin-Indocyanine Green Evaluation (ALICE) grading system in predicting severe posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) and postoperative mortality in HAE patients undergoing liver resection. Methods A total of 105 HAE patients undergoing hepatectomy were enrolled in this study. The value of each variable in predicting severe PHLF was evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) were calculated to evaluate the predictive ability of the Child–Pugh grade, ICG-R15, and ALICE grading system. Also, patients were classified using the optimal cutoff value for ICG-R15 and different ALICE grades, and the incidence of severe PHLF and postoperative mortality were compared with the predicted values. Results Out of the 105 HAE patients enrolled in this study, 34 patients (32.4%) developed severe PHLF. The ALICE grade and operative time were identified as independent predictors of severe PHLF. According to ROC analysis, the AUCs of the Child–Pugh grade, ICG-R15, and ALICE grade for predicting severe PHLF were 0.733 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.637–0.814), 0.823 (95% CI, 0.737–0.891), 0.834 (95% CI, 0.749–0.900). The incidence of severe PHLF and postoperative 90-day mortality in patients with ICG-R15 > 7.2% were significantly higher than those with ICG-R15 ≤ 7.2% (P