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Clarifying the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem stability in the context of global environmental change is crucial for maintaining ecosystem functions and services. Asynchronous changes between trophic levels over time (i.e. trophic community asynchrony) are expected to increase trophic mismatch and alter trophic interactions, which may consequently alter ecosystem stability. However, previous studies have often highlighted the stabilising mechanism of population asynchrony within a single trophic level, while rarely examining the mechanism of trophic community asynchrony between consumers and their food resources.In this study, we analysed the effects of population asynchrony within and between trophic levels on community stability under the disturbances of climate warming, fishery decline and de‐eutrophication, based on an 18‐year monthly monitoring dataset of 137 phytoplankton and 91 zooplankton in a subtropical lake.Our results showed that species diversity promoted community stability mainly by increasing population asynchrony both for phytoplankton and zooplankton. Trophic community asynchrony had a significant negative effect on zooplankton community stability rather than that of phytoplankton, which supports the match‐mismatch hypothesis that trophic mismatch has negative effects on consumers. Furthermore, the results of the structural equation models showed that warming and top‐down effects may simultaneously alter community stability through population dynamics processes within and between trophic levels, whereas nutrients act on community stability mainly through the processes within trophic levels. Moreover, we found that rising water temperature decreased trophic community asynchrony, which may challenge the prevailing idea that climate warming increases the trophic mismatch between primary producers and consumers.Overall, our study provides the first evidence that population and trophic community asynchrony have contrasting effects on consumer community stability, which offers a valuable insight for addressing global environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The laying of two clutches in a single breeding season can increase the fitness of the parent birds and stabilise a population. Our study analysed the rate of second-breeding attempts in the common kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) population in the Czech Republic. In the research, a total of 8,049 common kestrel nests were checked between 1979 and 2019. Of the 1,197 breeding events recorded during the study period in Moravia, 1,184 cases were first clutches and 13 cases (1.1%) were second breeding attempts. In Bohemia, a total of 6,852 breeding events were observed during the same study period, of which 6,811 were first clutches, 32 cases were late breeding attempts and 9 cases (0.1%) were second clutches. Second breeding events occurred only rarely, mainly during population outbreaks of prey species. During the mass outbreak of the common vole (Microtus arvalis) population in the Czech Republic in 2019, 5 (5.2%) of the 97 studied common kestrel pairs nested for the second time in Moravia; in Bohemia, second clutches were recorded in 3 (8.1%) of the 37 studied pairs. The second breeding attempts were recorded at an altitude of 272 ± 123 m (mean ± SD, range 179–560 m, n = 22) and commenced between 24 June and 25 July (29 June on average, n = 5). The range of the time gap between the first and the second clutch was 54 to 92 days (70.8 ± 16.3 days, n = 5). The second clutches consisted of an average of 4.1 ± 0.9 eggs (range 3–6, n = 12), with an average of 3.7 ± 0.9 fledglings in each successful breeding pair (range 2–5, n = 11) and 2.6 ± 1.9 fledglings for each initiated breeding attempt (range 0–5, n = 16).

Dung beetles feed mainly on scarce and ephemeral mammalian faeces making them vulnerable to declines of mammal populations. Therefore, studying how diverse groups like the Scarabaeinae subfamily utilize alternative food sources, such as decomposing invertebrates, enhances our understanding of their distribution and resilience in defaunated areas. One poorly studied aspect of the feeding habits of dung beetles is the potential differences between the sexes and their predatory behaviour. We evaluated how the sex (male and female) of individuals of Chalconotus convexus affected individual resource attraction to different bait types. Since C. convexus is known to feed on faeces, carrion and dead millipedes, we also test whether it can predate live individuals of millipedes. We used a combination of two field samplings and one laboratory experiment, using pitfall traps baited with faeces, carrion, millipedes and millipede's defensive compounds. While the preference for millipede was not associated with sex, we found a significant relationship between faeces and carrion, where females of C. convexus are significantly less attracted to faeces when compared to males and also males are significantly less attracted to carrion when compared to females. Furthermore, we also show that while actively consuming dead millipedes, C. convexus is unable to predate on live individuals. Our study illustrates that the versatility of food sources may help to explain the high abundance and wide distribution of C. convexus in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dominant species play a principal role in controlling and maintaining ecosystem stability. Stipa breviflora is the dominant species in desert steppe. Changes in the stability of a plant population will further affect the stability of the broader habitat, such as the desert steppe. In the desert steppe ecosystem, it is not clear what level of grazing intensity is best for improving the grazing tolerance and stability of the vegetation. And, the study of this question should involve a multi-dimensional, comprehensive analysis. This study will utilize variance analysis, plant population stability, and trade-off index to study S. breviflora, the dominant species in the desert steppe in Inner Mongolia, and its performance under four grazing intensities (control, CK, 0 sheep·ha−1·half year−1; light grazing, LG, 0.93 sheep·ha−1·half year−1; moderate grazing, MG, 1.82 sheep·ha−1·half year−1; and heavy grazing, HG, 2.71 sheep·ha−1·half year−1) over six scales (5 cm × 5 cm; 10 cm × 10 cm; 20 cm × 20 cm; 25 cm × 25 cm; 50 cm × 50 cm; and 100 cm × 100 cm). The characteristics of the population stability of S. breviflora were explored. The results showed that the response of S. breviflora's stability to heavy grazing was multidimensional. Heavy grazing reduced the population stability of S. breviflora. Across different dimensions, base coverage was the first of the population stability metrics of S. breviflora to destabilize, followed by projection coverage, density, and height. Heavy grazing also affected the trade-offs of S. breviflora's population stability across different dimensions. In general, the trade-off degree decreased as the grazing intensity increased, and it increased as the scale increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable provision of critical ecosystem services in drylands is reliant on their stability under anthropogenic disturbances. Livestock grazing and shrub encroachment are the primary drivers of disturbance that impact their biodiversity and production dynamics. However, the effects of grazing on the stability at multiple scales, particularly following the transition from grass‐dominated to shrub‐encroached drylands, is still largely unexplored.Here, we conducted comparable sheep‐grazing experiments in two types of drylands (grass‐dominated vs. shrub‐encroached grasslands) on the Mongolia Plateau to explore the effects of grazing and shrub encroachment on biodiversity and stability at multiple scales. We examined how grazing affected the temporal stability of aboveground biomass in herbaceous communities in both grass‐dominated and shrub‐encroached grasslands, through two potential mechanisms: insurance effects and changes in the population‐level stability of individual species.We found that an increase in sheep grazing intensity had significant and negative effects on insurance effects by decreasing both species asynchrony and spatial asynchrony but it had no effects on population stability, consequently leading to reductions in herbaceous community stability of the grasslands. However, grazing‐increased insurance effects cancelled out grazing‐decreased population stability, contributing to no changes in the community stability of shrub‐encroached grasslands. Likely, because grazing‐induced reductions in the relative abundance of the dominant species were more noticeable in shrub‐encroached grasslands than that of in grasslands. Moreover, the grazing‐decreased abundance of dominant species was directly correlated to increases in insurance effects in shrub‐encroached grasslands but not in grasslands, despite the positive relationships between population stability and the relative abundance of the dominant species in both grass‐dominated and shrub‐encroached drylands.Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that grazing can decrease the stability of herbaceous production in drylands but this negative effect is attenuated with the transition from grasslands to shrub‐encroached grasslands, suggesting that grazing effects on herbaceous community stability can be altered by shrub encroachment in drylands. Furthermore, the stability of dominant grasses plays a crucial role in stabilizing herbaceous communities and should be considered in promoting sustainable ecosystem functioning and services in drylands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the example of different groups of herbivorous mammals, it was demonstrated that the spatial, seasonal, and long-term dynamics of energy resources directly affects the level of their consumption by animals and determines changes in the intensity of the processes of reproduction, mortality, migration, and, eventually, the state and stability of populations. The supply of nutrients and energy is initially limited, which determines certain forms of environmental processes according to the hierarchy of the energy budget components. The energy balance of the organism acts as a universal integral index of the efficiency of the adaptive capacity of the organism to environmental factors at each moment of its life cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At large scales, the mechanisms underpinning stability in natural communities may vary in importance due to changes in species composition, mean abundance, and species richness. Here we link species characteristics (niche positions) and community characteristics (richness and abundance) to evaluate the importance of stability mechanisms in 156 butterfly communities monitored across three European countries and spanning five bioclimatic regions. We construct niche‐based hierarchical structural Bayesian models to explain first differences in abundance, population stability, and species richness between the countries, and then explore how these factors impact community stability both directly and indirectly (via synchrony and population stability). Species richness was partially explained by the position of a site relative to the niches of the species pool, and species near the centre of their niche had higher average population stability. The differences in mean abundance, population stability, and species richness then influenced how much variation in community stability they explained across the countries. We found, using variance partitioning, that community stability in Finnish communities was most influenced by community abundance, whereas this aspect was unimportant in Spain with species synchrony explaining most variation; the UK was somewhat intermediate with both factors explaining variation. Across all countries, the diversity–stability relationship was indirect with species richness reducing synchrony which increased community stability, with no direct effects of species richness. Our results suggest that in natural communities, biogeographical variation observed in key drivers of stability, such as population abundance and species richness, leads to community stability being limited by different factors and that this can partially be explained due to the niche characteristics of the European butterfly assemblage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assumption that greater biodiversity enhances ecosystem stability, commonly known as 'portfolio effect', has attracted considerable research attention. However, the potential portfolio effects on spatial stability (the similarity of ecosystem functioning among forest communities) are still poorly examined especially at different spatial scales and under varying environmental stress conditions. Accordingly, this study investigates the biodiversity–spatial stability relationship among regional communities across different spatial scales and environmental conditions in a temperate forest region.We define spatial stability as the invariability of the productivity of woody plants among plots within a regional community. To test spatial stability, the N closest plots to a given plot were aggregated to form regional communities representing different spatial scales. Structural equation modelling was used to evaluate how biodiversity (including taxonomic [TD] and phylogenetic diversity [PD]) increases spatial stability via species asynchrony and/or population stability across spatial scales. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling was used to evaluate the environmental dependence of the portfolio effects on spatial stability.TD and PD both increased the spatial stability by increasing asynchrony, but decreased population stability. The portfolio effect of TD on spatial stability became stronger and reached saturation at the intermediate scale and then decreased as regional communities became larger. The portfolio effects of TD were weaker under the stressful conditions of drought, high precipitation seasonality and high elevation but unchanged across temperature seasonality and human disturbance. PD showed no discernable effect on spatial stability and did not change across spatial scale and environmental condition.Our results suggest that the positive effect of biodiversity on species asynchrony overcomes the negative biodiversity effect on population stability to buffer the spatial change in productivity in diverse communities. Future research of the biodiversity–spatial stability relationship may thus benefit from incorporating different spatial scales and environmental conditions into the analysis. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Credit risk scorecards are logistic regression models, fitted to large and complex data sets, employed by the financial industry to model the probability of default of potential customers. In order to ensure that a scorecard remains a representative model of the population, one tests the hypothesis of population stability; specifying that the distribution of customers' attributes remains constant over time. Simulating realistic data sets for this purpose is nontrivial, as these data sets are multivariate and contain intricate dependencies. The simulation of these data sets are of practical interest for both practitioners and for researchers; practitioners may wish to consider the effect that a specified change in the properties of the data has on the scorecard and its usefulness from a business perspective, while researchers may wish to test a newly developed technique in credit scoring. We propose a simulation technique based on the specification of bad ratios, this is explained below. Practitioners can generally not be expected to provide realistic parameter values for a scorecard; these models are simply too complex and contain too many parameters to make such a specification viable. However, practitioners can often confidently specify the bad ratio associated with two different levels of a specific attribute. That is, practitioners are often comfortable with making statements such as "on average a new customer is 1.5 times as likely to default as an existing customer with similar attributes". We propose a method which can be used to obtain parameter values for a scorecard based on specified bad ratios. The proposed technique is demonstrated using a realistic example, and we show that the simulated data sets adhere closely to the specified bad ratios. The paper provides a link to a Github project with the R code used to generate the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dominant species play a principal role in controlling and maintaining ecosystem stability. Stipa breviflora is the dominant species in desert steppe. Changes in the stability of a plant population will further affect the stability of the broader habitat, such as the desert steppe. In the desert steppe ecosystem, it is not clear what level of grazing intensity is best for improving the grazing tolerance and stability of the vegetation. And, the study of this question should involve a multi-dimensional, comprehensive analysis. This study will utilize variance analysis, plant population stability, and trade-off index to study S. breviflora, the dominant species in the desert steppe in Inner Mongolia, and its performance under four grazing intensities (control, CK, 0 sheep·ha−1·half year−1; light grazing, LG, 0.93 sheep·ha−1·half year−1; moderate grazing, MG, 1.82 sheep·ha−1·half year−1; and heavy grazing, HG, 2.71 sheep·ha−1·half year−1) over six scales (5 cm × 5 cm; 10 cm × 10 cm; 20 cm × 20 cm; 25 cm × 25 cm; 50 cm × 50 cm; and 100 cm × 100 cm). The characteristics of the population stability of S. breviflora were explored. The results showed that the response of S. breviflora’s stability to heavy grazing was multidimensional. Heavy grazing reduced the population stability of S. breviflora. Across different dimensions, base coverage was the first of the population stability metrics of S. breviflora to destabilize, followed by projection coverage, density, and height. Heavy grazing also affected the trade-offs of S. breviflora’s population stability across different dimensions. In general, the trade-off degree decreased as the grazing intensity increased, and it increased as the scale increased.

Feral horses form relatively stable harems over time that are characterized by long-lasting bonds among their members, a characteristic that makes them an exceptional case of a social system among terrestrial ungulates. Their social system has been described as uniform despite the wide differences in their environment and demography. Horse populations subjected to human interference often show higher levels of population instability that can ultimately compromise their reproductive success. In this article, we describe demographic and dynamic changes of a Portuguese population of Garranos in Serra d’Arga (SA), which is impacted by human and predation pressures, over six breeding seasons. Furthermore, we tested several hypotheses related to the impact of anthropogenic disturbance on the structure and dynamics of this population. Our results revealed that the SA population had relatively little human interference at the start of the project in 2016. This was supported by the natural composition of the herd (total number of individuals, 206), which consisted of several single- and multi-male harems (n = 17 and 7, respectively) and bachelor males (n = 9). However, from 2017 to 2021, SA’s Garrano population suffered a drastic decline. Approximately two-thirds of the individuals and all bachelor males disappeared, and 76% of adult female transfers occurred after the death or disappearance of the harem male. Predatory pressures and poor management of the population, which allowed illegal human interference, contributed to this population crisis. A low population growth rate, reduced birth and foal survival rates, in addition to a delayed primiparous age were observed in this population and exacerbated after its drastic decline; suggesting the viability and survival of this Garrano population were compromised. Investigating the population demographic changes and their causes and consequences can provide guidelines for managing populations and help fight the extinction of horse breeds.

Ecological stability in plant communities is shaped by bottom-up processes like environmental resource fluctuations and top-down controls such as herbivory, each of which have demonstrated direct effects but may also act indirectly by altering plant community dynamics. These indirect effects, called biotic stability mechanisms, have been studied across environmental gradients, but few studies have assessed the importance of top-down controls on biotic stability mechanisms in conjunction with bottom-up processes. Here we use a long-term herbivore exclusion experiment in central Kenya to explore the joint effects of drought and herbivory (bottom-up and top-down limitation, respectively) on three biotic stability mechanisms: (1) species asynchrony, in which a decline in one species is compensated for by a rise in another, (2) stable dominant species driving overall stability, and (3) the portfolio effect, in which a community property is distributed among multiple species. We calculated the temporal stability of herbaceous cover and biotic stability mechanisms over a 22-year time series and with a moving window to examine changes through time. Both drought and herbivory additively reduced asynchronous dynamics, leading to lower stability during droughts and under high herbivore pressure. This effect is likely attributed to a reduction in palatable dominant species under higher herbivory, which creates space for subordinate species to fluctuate synchronously in response to rainfall variability. Dominant species population stability promoted community stability, an effect that did not vary with precipitation but depended on herbivory. The portfolio effect was not important for stability in this system. Our results demonstrate that this system is naturally dynamic, and a future of increasing drought may reduce its stability. However, these effects will in turn be amplified or buffered depending on changes in herbivore communities and their direct and indirect impacts on plant community dynamics.

Dispersal is crucial in governing species response toward climate warming. Previous studies suggest that intermediate and density-dependent dispersal enables the functioning of a metacommunity, stabilizing populations at local and regional scales. Here, we consider a spatial ecological model with temperature-dependent traits to elucidate dispersal effects in stabilizing population dynamics under climate warming. Specifically, we analyze the effect of species temperature-dependent life-history traits on a metacommunity dynamics with diverse dispersal strategies (i.e., constant and density-dependent dispersal), tracked along with different dispersal rates of species (relative dispersal). At low and intermediate temperatures, different dispersal strategies synchronize or desynchronize the population dynamics depending upon dispersal rates. However, high temperatures completely synchronize the population trailing constant dispersal, weakening the stabilizing dynamics. Furthermore, density-dependent dispersal strongly affects the stability of metacommunity at high temperatures by increasing or decreasing spatial synchrony depending on dispersal rates. In metacommunities with many patches, conditional upon temperature, species abundance exhibits coexistence of synchronous and asynchronous oscillations, namely the chimera state. Overall, our results show that rising temperature may destabilize the dynamics by synchronizing populations; however, some dispersal mechanisms might impede the adverse outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Credit risk scorecards are logistic regression models, fitted to large and complex data sets, employed by the financial industry to model the probability of default of potential customers. In order to ensure that a scorecard remains a representative model of the population, one tests the hypothesis of population stability; specifying that the distribution of customers’ attributes remains constant over time. Simulating realistic data sets for this purpose is nontrivial, as these data sets are multivariate and contain intricate dependencies. The simulation of these data sets are of practical interest for both practitioners and for researchers; practitioners may wish to consider the effect that a specified change in the properties of the data has on the scorecard and its usefulness from a business perspective, while researchers may wish to test a newly developed technique in credit scoring. We propose a simulation technique based on the specification of bad ratios, this is explained below. Practitioners can generally not be expected to provide realistic parameter values for a scorecard; these models are simply too complex and contain too many parameters to make such a specification viable. However, practitioners can often confidently specify the bad ratio associated with two different levels of a specific attribute. That is, practitioners are often comfortable with making statements such as “on average a new customer is 1.5 times as likely to default as an existing customer with similar attributes”. We propose a method which can be used to obtain parameter values for a scorecard based on specified bad ratios. The proposed technique is demonstrated using a realistic example, and we show that the simulated data sets adhere closely to the specified bad ratios. The paper provides a link to a Github project with the R code used to generate the results.

Stability of breeding habitat use and population variability was studied in two common wader species: green sandpiper Tringa ochropus and common sandpiper Actitis hypoleucos in a boreal lake area in southern Finland. The main natural driver of habitat disturbance in the area is an ecosystem engineer, the North American beaver Castor canadensis. We also studied the presence and abundance of green sandpipers before, during and after beaver-induced floods.In the studied landscape, the variable habitat created by beaver flooding appeared to have carrying capacity for a larger green sandpiper population than the more stable habitat for that of the common sandpiper. Common sandpipers made much use of the same lakes from year to year whereas the occupation of wetlands by the green sandpiper was more variable. The population of common sandpipers fluctuated more, although they inhabited the more stable environment. Green sandpiper pair numbers increased during beaver flooding, which suggests that they adapt rapidly to changes in breeding site availability. Some of the facilitating effects of the beaver appeared to remain 1–2 years after the flooding.

Global warming over the next century is likely to alter the energy demands of consumers and thus the strengths of their interactions with their resources. The subsequent cascading effects on population biomasses could have profound effects on food web stability. One key mechanism by which organisms can cope with a changing environment is phenotypic plasticity, such as acclimation to warmer conditions through reversible changes in their physiology. Here, we measured metabolic rates and functional responses in laboratory experiments for a widespread predator–prey pair of freshwater invertebrates, sampled from across a natural stream temperature gradient in Iceland (4–18℃). This enabled us to parameterize a Rosenzweig–MacArthur population dynamical model to study the effect of thermal acclimation on the persistence of the predator–prey pairs in response to warming. Acclimation to higher temperatures either had neutral effects or reduced the thermal sensitivity of both metabolic and feeding rates for the predator, increasing its energetic efficiency. This resulted in greater stability of population dynamics, as acclimation to higher temperatures increased the biomass of both predator and prey populations with warming. These findings indicate that phenotypic plasticity can act as a buffer against the impacts of environmental warming. As a consequence, predator–prey interactions between ectotherms may be less sensitive to future warming than previously expected, but this requires further investigation across a broader range of interacting species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explaining the stability of human populations provides knowledge for understanding the resilience of human societies to environmental change. Here, we use archaeological radiocarbon records to evaluate a hypothesis drawn from resilience thinking that may explain the stability of human populations: Faced with long-term increases in population density, greater variability in the production of food leads to less stable populations, while lower variability leads to more stable populations. However, increased population stability may come with the cost of larger collapses in response to rare, large-scale environmental perturbations. Our results partially support this hypothesis. Agricultural societies that relied on extensive landscape engineering to intensify production and tightly control variability in the production of food experienced the most stability. Contrary to the hypothesis, these societies also experienced the least severe population declines. We propose that the interrelationship between landscape engineering and increased political-economic complexity reduces the magnitude of population collapses in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying to what degree inherent characteristics of plant species and their variation in response to their environment regulate the temporal stability of plant populations is important to understand patterns of species coexistence and the stability of ecosystems. Longevity is a key characteristic of plant life history and an important component of demographic storage, but age is usually unknown for herbaceous species.In a 12‐year‐old biodiversity experiment (Jena Experiment) comprising 80 grassland communities with six levels of plant species richness (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 species) and four levels of functional groups richness (1, 2, 3 and 4 functional groups), we studied populations of 38 dicotyledonous forb species (N = 1,683 plant individuals). The sampled individuals represented three plant functional groups (legumes, small herbs and tall herbs) and two different growth forms (species with long‐lived primary roots and clonal species with rhizomes/stolons). We assessed the age of plant individuals by means of growth ring analysis and related the age of plant populations to their temporal stability in terms of peak biomass production.On average, plant species richness did not affect the mean age of the populations or the maximum age of individuals found in a population. Age of herbs with taproots increased and age of herbs with clonal growth decreased with increasing species richness, cancelling out each other when growth forms were analysed together. Mean population age was lowest for small herbs and highest for tall herbs, while legumes had an intermediate population age. Herbs with a taproot were on average older than herbs with a rhizome. Across all species‐richness levels, populations with older individuals were more stable in terms of biomass production over time.Synthesis. Our study shows for the first time across multiple species that the longevity of forbs is affected by the diversity of the surrounding plant community, and that plant longevity as an important component of demographic storage increases the temporal stability of populations of grassland forb species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial evidence now suggests that a positive diversity–stability relationship exists. Yet few studies examine the facets of biodiversity that contribute to this relationship, and empirical research is predominantly conducted on grassland communities under controlled conditions. We investigate the roles of species richness, environmental condition (vegetation cover), asynchrony, and weighted population stability in driving community stability across multiple taxa. We used data from a Long-term Ecological Research project to investigate temporal stability of annual plants, beetles, reptiles, and rodents in Nizzanim Coastal Sand Dune Nature Reserve in Israel. All four taxa had a strong positive relationship between asynchrony and community stability. Only rodents showed a positive richness–stability relationship. Perennial plant cover had a significant relationship with community stability for three taxa, but the direction of the correlation varied. Asynchrony had a stronger relationship with perennial plant cover than it did with richness for both plants and beetles. We suggest that community stability is driven by asynchrony for flora as well as fauna. Stability appears to be determined by species' interactions and their responses to the environment, and not always by diversity. This has important consequences for understanding the effects of environmental degradation on ecosystem stability and productivity, which have destabilizing consequences beyond biodiversity loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been an overall decline in copepod populations across the North Atlantic over the past few decades. Reasons for these declines are unclear, and several major species, including the cyclopoid copepod Oithona similis, have maintained stable populations at station L4 in the western English Channel. To identify the factors contributing to this stability, we conducted a 1-year intensive study of O. similis at L4 over 2017–2018, a period of high climatic variability. For context, dominant frequency state analysis was applied to the 30-year L4 time series to derive the baseline dynamics of the Oithona spp. population. The Oithona spp. baseline demonstrated stable densities and a bimodal annual cycle. These dynamics, as well as those of reproductive output and phaenological timings, were upheld in 2017–2018, indicating resilience to climatic variability. During 2017–2018, all life stages of O. similis were relatively scarce in the top 2 m of the water column, despite the presence of abundant food. Naupliar stages occurred predominantly around 10 m depth, with subsequent life stages progressively deeper. We suggest this vertical structuring may represent different trade-offs between feeding and mortality risk between ontogenetic stages. To determine the traits that contribute to population stability, we compare O. similis with the large, biomass-dominant copepod, Calanus helgolandicus. Despite having contrasting functional traits, both species have exhibited strong population stability over the time series. Our results provide evidence that mortality plays a major role in maintaining population dynamics.

Reef-forming species play a key role creating, modifying and maintaining important habitat and their associated communities. Globally, many of these habitats are extensively fragmented but our understanding of key ecological processes is drawn from older studies performed in less degraded environments with extensive reef habitats. We tested whether proximity to habitat edges affected the persistence and functioning of fragmented intertidal mussel reefs, Mytilus edulis, at three sites in sedimentary habitats in Northern Ireland. Specifically, we quantified and compared key ecological properties in mid-habitat and edges and hypothesised that at the edges, there would be (i) larger individual mussels, (ii) lower recruitment, (iii) lower associated taxon diversity, (iv) lower biodeposition, (v) greater predation intensity and (vi) greater food availability. Additionally, we tested whether rates of functioning (e.g. organic matter accumulation) were greater in mussel patches (edge and mid-habitat) compared to sediment without mussels (vii). We did find larger mussels at the edges of patches, where there was also less organic enrichment of the sediment compared to mid-habitat (but more than areas without mussels). None of the other variables quanitifed differed consistently between the edge and mid-habitat. The lack of strong edge effects identified may be explained by the nature of the mussel habitat in this study, i.e. intrinsically greater proportion of edges compared to more extensive reefs. Our results suggest that at the scale of the reef patches in this study, edge effects were not as strong as previously thought in terms of regulating key ecological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scorecards are models used in credit risk modelling. These models segments a population into various so-called \risk buckets" based on the risk characteristics of the individual clients. Once a scorecard has been developed, the credit provider typically prefers to keep this model in use for an extended period. As a result, it is important to test whether or not the model still fits the population. To this end, the hypothesis of population stability is tested; this hypothesis specifies that the current proportions of the population in the various risk buckets are the same as was the case at the point in time at which the scorecard was developed. In practice, this assumption is usually tested using a measure known as the population stability index (which corresponds to the asymmetric Kullback-Leibler discrepancy between discrete distributions) together with a well-known rule of thumb. This paper considers the statistical motivation for the use of the population stability index. Numerical examples are provided in order to demonstrate the effect of the rule of thumb as well as other critical values. Although previous numerical studies relating to this statistic are available, the sample sizes are not realistic for the South African credit market. The paper demonstrates that the population stability index has little statistical merit as either a goodness-of-fit statistic to test the hypothesis of population stability or as an intuitive discrepancy measure. As a result, a novel methodology for testing the mentioned hypothesis is proposed. This methodology includes a restatement of the hypothesis to specify a range of \acceptable" deviations from the specified model. An alternative test statistic is also employed as discrepancy measure; this measure has the advantage of having a simple heuristic interpretation in the context of credit risk modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial evidence now suggests that a positive diversity–stability relationship exists. Yet few studies examine the facets of biodiversity that contribute to this relationship, and empirical research is predominantly conducted on grassland communities under controlled conditions. We investigate the roles of species richness, environmental condition (vegetation cover), asynchrony, and weighted population stability in driving community stability across multiple taxa. We used data from a Long-term Ecological Research project to investigate temporal stability of annual plants, beetles, reptiles, and rodents in Nizzanim Coastal Sand Dune Nature Reserve in Israel. All four taxa had a strong positive relationship between asynchrony and community stability. Only rodents showed a positive richness–stability relationship. Perennial plant cover had a significant relationship with community stability for three taxa, but the direction of the correlation varied. Asynchrony had a stronger relationship with perennial plant cover than it did with richness for both plants and beetles. We suggest that community stability is driven by asynchrony for flora as well as fauna. Stability appears to be determined by species’ interactions and their responses to the environment, and not always by diversity. This has important consequences for understanding the effects of environmental degradation on ecosystem stability and productivity, which have destabilizing consequences beyond biodiversity loss.

Population stability ultimately depends on the life-history characteristics of individuals; thus, it may be indirectly affected by natural selection acting on various life-history traits. This study investigates the efficacy of natural selection in molding the stability of populations living at an unstable equilibrium. The stability of laboratory populations of Drosophila is affected by the relative amount of food given to larvae and adults. Environments with high larval food levels and low adult food levels (HL environments) tend to have asymptotically stable carrying capacities. Environments with low larval food levels and high adult food levels (LH environments) tend to exhibit unstable dynamics, like population cycles. In this experiment, 20 populations were created from two different types of source populations. Five of the source populations had evolved for 71 generations under crowded larval conditions and uncrowded adult conditions (CU populations), while the other five source populations had evolved for a comparable time in uncrowded larval and uncrowded adult conditions (UU). In this study, five replicate CU and UU populations each were placed in both the HL and LH environments, and total adult population counts and adult biomass were recorded for 45 generations. Every five generations, we also estimated the density-dependent fecundity function in each population, since population stability depends critically on the shape of this function. While we could document phenotypic evolution in these populations for several characters due to density-dependent natural selection, there was no detectable change in the population stability characteristics of the unstable LH populations. This result is consistent with either no evolution of population stability, or very slow change. Thus, while evolution in these populations affects important life-history characteristics, these changes appear to have no detectable effects on population stability.

Identifying stable coexistence in empirical systems is notoriously difficult. Here, we show how spatiotemporal structure and complex system dynamics can confound two commonly used stability metrics in empirical contexts: response to perturbation and invasion rate when rare. We use these metrics to characterize stable coexistence across a range of spatial and temporal scales for five simulated models in which the ability of species to coexist in the long term is known a priori and for an empirical old field successional time series. We term the resulting multivariate distribution of metrics a "stability fingerprint." In accordance with a wide range of classic and recent studies, our results demonstrate that no combination of empirically tractable metrics or measurements is guaranteed to "correctly" characterize coexistence. However, we also find that heuristic information from the stability fingerprint can be used to broadly characterize dynamic behavior and identify circumstances under which particular combinations of species are likely to persist. Moreover, stability fingerprints appear to be particularly well suited for matching potential theoretical models to observed dynamics. These findings suggest that it may be prudent to shift the focus of empirical stability analysis away from quantifying single measures of stability and toward more heuristic, multivariate characterizations of community dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential for climate change and temperature shifts to affect community stability remains relatively unknown. One mechanism by which temperature may affect stability is by altering trophic interactions. The functional response quantifies the per capita resource consumption by the consumer as a function of resource abundance and is a suitable framework for the description of nonlinear trophic interactions.We studied the effect of temperature on a ciliate predator–prey pair (Spathidium sp. and Dexiostoma campylum) by estimating warming effects on the functional response and on the associated conversion efficiency of the predator.We recorded prey and predator dynamics over 24 hr and at three temperature levels (15, 20 and 25°C). To these data, we fitted a population dynamic model including the predator functional response, such that the functional response parameters (space clearance rate, handling time and density dependence of space clearance rate) were estimated for each temperature separately. To evaluate the ecological significance of temperature effects on the functional response parameters, we simulated predator–prey population dynamics. We considered the predator–prey system to be destabilized, if the prey was driven extinct by the predator.Effects of increased temperature included a transition of the functional response from a Type III to a Type II and an increase of the conversion efficiency of the predator. The simulated population dynamics showed a destabilization of the system with warming, with greater risk of prey extinction at higher temperatures likely caused by the transition from a Type III to a Type II functional response.Warming‐induced shifts from a Type III to II are not commonly considered in modelling studies that investigate how population dynamics respond to warming. Future studies should investigate the mechanism and generality of the effect we observed and simulate temperature effects in complex food webs including shifts in the type of the functional response as well as consider the possibility of a temperature‐dependent conversion efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of evidence from diversity-manipulation and natural studies suggests that the stability of community productivity increases with biodiversity; however, few studies have researched this relationship in a non-weeded grassland. To clarify this issue, we established an artificial grassland in 2003 using three common species, Elymus nutans , Festuca sinensis and Festuca ovina , which included seven different community structures (three monocultures, three two-species mixtures and one three-species mixture based on sown species) and two nutrient addition treatments (non-nutrient addition and nutrient addition). Data was collected over a three-year period (2011–2013). Our results showed that the sowing species modified realized species richness (i.e. the number of total species we observed in a community) and species evenness, but had negligible influences on community- and population-level stability. Furthermore, all of these variables were reduced by nutrient addition. These dynamics did not alter the positive influence of realized species richness on community stability, but restricted the stable effect of evenness because this effect was only significant under nutrient addition condition. The potential mechanisms underlying these processes were statistical averaging and species asynchrony, rather than overyielding effect. Conversely, population stability decreased with realized species richness in non-nutrient addition treatments. We conclude that biodiversity contributed to community- and population-level stability even in non-weeded experiment. This process resulted from different mechanisms that observed in weeded experiments. Further studies in other ecosystems (e.g. aquatic ecosystem) are needed to find a more general conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recruitment and adult‐mortality may respond differently to increased population density. Such unequal density dependence (UDD) is evident for large mammals showing density dependence mainly in recruitment (reproduction rate or juvenile survival), whereas adult survival is high and varies little with density. Mechanistically, UDD is likely influenced by an unequal allocation of resources toward reproduction versus survival. Unequal density dependence is expected to affect compensation abilities, and hence may have serious implications with regard to population harvesting. We modeled UDD by linking population size to reproduction and survival through per capita resource availability and consumption. We integrated UDD into 2 population models (continuous vs. periodic recruitment) and investigated how it affected the compensatory dynamics of populations. For a population with continuous recruitment, our model predicted that although UDD stabilizes the population dynamics, it makes populations more vulnerable to harvesting as a consequence of lower compensatory ability, regardless of whether more resources are allocated to reproduction or to survival. For populations with periodic recruitment, on the other hand, an asymmetric effect of UDD is predicted. Strong density dependence in recruitment relative to adult survival yields a strong compensatory response, whereas equal or stronger density dependence in adult survival relative to recruitment yields weaker compensatory responses. Stronger density dependence in recruitment also causes the periodic fluctuations in population size to be amplified rather than dampened under harvesting. These results are robust to alternative model formulations (e.g., Ricker and Beverton‐Holt equations). Using an empirical example for coyotes (Canis latrans), wild boars (Sus scrofa), and white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), we demonstrated the implications of our results for harvest management of medium‐size mammalian species that are periodic breeders and exhibit density‐dependent recruitment. Accounting for UDD in the population model of coyotes and wild boars, which are characterized by large litters, predicts compensation that is stronger than the response obtained without UDD. For white‐tailed deer, which are characterized by substantially smaller litters, accounting for UDD does not change the outcome. Harvest‐based control attempts of medium‐size mammals may hence be much less effective than predicted when the population models used to estimate them ignore UDD, suggesting the necessity of integrating UDD into these models. © 2018 The Wildlife Society. Unequal density dependence between survival and recruitment, which is an important factor in population dynamics, is studied theoretically and shown to affect the ability of populations to compensate harvesting. Empirical analysis on 3 mammalian species indicates that accounting for unequal density dependence in the population model may substantially change the evaluation of harvesting as a tool to control overabundance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foundation species enhance biodiversity and multifunctionality across many systems; however, whether foundation species patch configuration mediates their ecological effects is unknown. In a 6‐month field experiment, we test which attributes of foundation species patch configuration – i.e. patch size, total patch area, perimeter, area‐perimeter ratio, or connectivity – control biodiversity, stability and multifunctionality by adding a standardised density of mussel foundation species in patches of 1, 5, 10, 30, 60, 90 or 180 individuals to a southeastern US salt marsh. Over 67% of response variables increased with clustering of mussels, responses that were driven by increases in area–perimeter ratio (33%), decreases in perimeter (29%), or increases in patch size (5%), suggesting sensitivity to external stressors and/or dependence on foundation species‐derived niche availability and segregation. Thus, mussel configuration – by controlling the relative distribution of multidimensional patch interior and edge niche space – critically modulates this foundation species' effects on ecosystem structure, stability and function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concepts of population systems, metapopulations, and biocomplexity share similar ideas about the organization of life at the population level, a mandatory element of which is the presence of an internal structure or subdivision into population components connected with each other via a certain level of migration. The subdivision of a population system or a metapopulation into interconnected components allows efficient adaptation and stability of the total system in a varying environment and ensures its far longer life as compared with its individual components. In 1970, Yu.P. Altukhov and Yu.G. Rychkov were the first to substantiate the idea of a systemic organization of populations, or the concept of population systems, as a condition essential for the stable existence of populations in biological species. The results of studying natural population systems, including large groups of isolated human populations, and examining laboratory and computer models are described. A modern theory of metapopulations independently emerged abroad, almost simultaneously with the concept of population systems, and it was intensely developed in recent years in the context of conservation biology. The idea of matter and importance of the biocomplexity of regional population systems and the understanding that it is essential to preserve biocomplexity in the harvesting of commercial species are recognized as an important condition for their resistance to unfavorable anthropogenic and climatic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent efforts in controlling mosquito-borne diseases focus on biocontrol strategies that incapacitate pathogens inside mosquitoes by altering the mosquito's microbiome. A case in point is the introduction of Wolbachia into natural mosquito populations in order to eliminate Dengue virus. However, whether this strategy can successfully control vector-borne diseases is debated; particularly, how artificial infection affects population dynamics of hosts remains unclear. Here, we show that natural Wolbachia infections are associated with unstable mosquito population dynamics by contrasting Wolbachia -infected versus uninfected cage populations of the Asian tiger mosquito ( Aedes albopictus ). By analyzing weekly data of adult mosquito abundances, we found that the variability of the infected populations is significantly higher than that of the uninfected. The elevated population variability is explained by increased instability in dynamics, as quantified by system nonlinearity (i.e., state-dependence). In addition, predictability of infected populations is substantially lower. A mathematical model analysis suggests that Wolbachia may alter mosquito population dynamics by modifying larval competition of hosts. These results encourage examination for effects of artificial Wolbachia establishment on mosquito populations, because an enhancement of population variability with reduced predictability could pose challenges in management. Our findings have implications for application of microbiome alterations in biocontrol programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predator foraging facilitation may strongly influence the dynamics of a predator–prey system. This behavioral pattern is well-observed in real life interactions, but less is known about its possible impacts on the predator–prey dynamics. In this paper we analyze a modified Rosenzweig–MacArthur model, where a predator-dependent family of functions describing predator foraging facilitation is introduced into the Holling type II functional response. As the general assumption of foraging facilitation is that higher predator densities give rise to an increased foraging efficiency, we model predator facilitation with an increasing encounter rate function. Using the tools of bifurcation analysis we describe all the nonlinear phenomena that occur in the system provoked by foraging facilitation, these include the fold, Hopf, transcritial, homoclinic and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation. We show that foraging facilitation can stabilize the coexistence in the predator–prey system for specific rates, but in most of the cases it can have fatal consequences for the predators themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brzeziecki et al. 2016 ( Journal of Vegetation Science 27: 460-467.) describe a decrease in population densities and proportion of younger individuals for several tree species in permanent research plots in the core zone of the Białowieża National Park. They attribute insufficient tree recruitment inter alia to the strict protection. Although the authors performed a thorough analysis of tree population dynamics, the scales of the study mean that their far-reaching conclusions on the causes and consequences of the lack of demographic equilibrium cannot be supported by the data. The inadequate spatial and temporal scales of the study did not allow for the observation of representative population dynamics. Furthermore, they did not compare the results obtained in the strictly protected area with known demographic dynamics of trees in surrounding managed forests or under other forms of nature conservation. Looking from the wider ecosystem perspective, it is clear that strict protection is not a cause for concern and, instead, that such a near-natural forest manifests population dynamics at rather larger scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Species conservation efforts often use short‐term studies that fail to identify the vital rates that contribute most to population growth. Although the greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse) is a candidate for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and is sometimes referred to as an umbrella species in the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome of western North America, the failure of proposed management strategies to focus on key vital rates that may contribute most to achieving population stability remains problematic for sustainable conservation. To address this dilemma, we performed both prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses of a life cycle model based on a 12‐yr study that encompassed nearly all sage‐grouse vital rates. To validate our population models, we compared estimates of annual finite population growth rates (λ) from our female‐based life cycle models to those attained from male‐based lek counts. Post‐fledging (i.e., after second year, second year, and juvenile) female survival parameters contributed most to past variation in λ during our study and had the greatest potential to change λ in the future, indicating these vital rates as important determinants of sage‐grouse population dynamics. In addition, annual estimates of λ from female‐based life cycle models and male‐based lek data were similar, providing the most rigorous evidence to date that lek counts of males can serve as a valid index of sage‐grouse population change. Our comparison of fixed and mixed statistical models for evaluating temporal variation in nest survival and initiation suggest that conservation planners use caution when evaluating short‐term nesting studies and using associated fixed‐effect results to develop conservation objectives. In addition, our findings indicated that greater attention should be paid to those factors affecting sage‐grouse post‐fledging females. Our approach demonstrates the need for more long‐term studies of species vital rates across the life cycle. Such studies should address the decoupling of sampling variation from underlying process (co)variation in vital rates, identification of how such variation drives population dynamics, and how decision makers can use this information to re‐direct conservation efforts to address the most limiting points in the life cycle for a given population.

The stability of consumer-resource systems can depend on the form of feeding interactions (i.e. functional responses). Size-based models predict interactions - and thus stability - based on consumer-resource size ratios. However, little is known about how interaction contexts (e.g. simple or complex habitats) might alter scaling relationships. Addressing this, we experimentally measured interactions between a large size range of aquatic predators (4-6400 mg over 1347 feeding trials) and an invasive prey that transitions among habitats: from the water column (3D interactions) to simple and complex benthic substrates (2D interactions). Simple and complex substrates mediated successive reductions in capture rates - particularly around the unimodal optimum - and promoted prey population stability in model simulations. Many real consumer-resource systems transition between 2D and 3D interactions, and along complexity gradients. Thus, Context-Dependent Scaling ( CDS) of feeding interactions could represent an unrecognised aspect of food webs, and quantifying the extent of CDS might enhance predictive ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]