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Context: Decades of intensifying human activities have led to drastic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB), resulting in significant changes in landscape pattern and ecosystem service value (ESV), thereby affecting regional sustainability. Objectives: We focused on understanding the impact of LULC changes on the landscape pattern and ESV of the PLB and used the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) to predict LULC changes in 2050. Methods: We evaluated landscape patterns using landscape metrics and calculated ESV using the ecosystem service equivalent factor method. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between landscape patterns and ESV from 1990 to 2020. Then, we combined the PLUS model and the ecosystem service equivalent factor method to calculate the ESV under multiple scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Results: From 1990 to 2020, the LULC of the PLB changed to varying degrees. The PLB has undergone a rapid process of landscape fragmentation, and the total ESV of the PLB has decreased. The total ESV was positively correlated with the CONTAG index and negatively correlated with the SHDI index. Between 2020 and 2050, the ESV of the PLB is projected to decrease under the NDS (nature development scenario) and EDS (economic development scenario) and increase under the EPS (ecological protection scenario). Conclusions: ESV responded to changes in landscape pattern. We recommend that the PLB should increase patch connectivity. Additionally, future development in the PLB should prioritize ecological protection to prevent further declines in ESV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of urbanization leads to the rapid expansion of construction land and brings a series of ecological and environmental problems. The ecological network, as a linear landscape element, is of great significance to improve the quality of the regional ecological environment. In this study, the Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) and the model of Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) were used to construct the ecological corridors in the central city of Fuzhou, and the land use pattern under the constraints of the ecological network was simulated and quantified by the patch-level land use simulation (PLUS) tool with the results of the identification of ecological corridors. Meanwhile, with the help of InVEST habitat quality model, the regional habitat quality under different development scenarios was compared. The results show that (1) 19 ecological sources and 35 ecological corridors were identified; (2) under the constraints of ecological corridors, the area of forested land in the study area in 2027 was increased by 1.57% and the area of built-up land was reduced by 0.55% compared with that in 2022; (3) and under the constraints of ecological corridors, the mean value of habitat quality in Fuzhou City improved by 0.0055 and 0.0254 compared with 2022 and 2027 natural evolution scenarios, respectively. The study provides decision-making assistance for the construction of ecological corridors from the perspective of land use planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use/cover change (LUCC) can either enhance the areal carbon reserve capacity or exacerbate carbon emission issues, thereby significantly influencing global climate change. Comprehending the impact of LUCC on regional carbon reserve variation holds great significance for regional ecosystem preservation and socioeconomic sustainable development. This study focuses on Liaoning Province, leveraging land use remote sensing data from three periods from 2000 to 2020, natural environmental data and socioeconomic data in conjunction with the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. It analyzes the interactive relationship between LUCC and carbon reserves in Liaoning Province between 2000 and 2020 and forecasts the trajectory of carbon reserve changes in Liaoning Province under various scenarios: business as usual, urban development, cropland protection, and ecological protection, all based on LUCC simulations. The findings indicate the following: (1) Over the study period, Liaoning Province experienced significant LUCC characterized primarily by the transformation of farmland to built-up land. Carbon reserves initially declined and later increased due to LUCC changes, resulting in a cumulative increase of 30.52 Tg C. The spatial distribution of carbon reserves was influenced by LUCC, displaying a pattern of spatial aggregation, with higher values in the east and lower values in the west. (2) Across the four simulation scenarios, the spatial pattern of carbon reserves in Liaoning Province continued to exhibit the characteristic spatial aggregation of higher values in the east and lower values in the west. Under the urban development scenario, carbon reserves decreased by 34.56 Tg C tons, representing a 2.45% decrease compared to 2020. Conversely, under the business-as-usual, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection scenarios, carbon reserves displayed a growing tendency, reaching 1449.35 Tg C, 1450.39 Tg C, and 1471.80 Tg C, respectively, with changes of 0.09%, 0.16% and 1.63% compared to 2020. The substantial increase in carbon reserves under the ecological protection scenario primarily stemmed from the significant expansion of woodland and other ecological land areas. In light of these findings, Liaoning Province may consider laying down and strictly executing spatial policies for ecological protection in future land projecting. The PLUS model and InVEST model can help curb the uncontrolled expansion of built-up land, facilitate the increment of ecological land areas, and with effect augment carbon reserves, thereby ensuring the achievement of the "double carbon" target of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The examination of land-use change simulations across a range of scenarios represents a pivotal research avenue for the advancement of sustainable development analysis. Nevertheless, the extant research merely categorises all building land in a land-use classification into a single category, which is unable to provide a detailed analysis of the dynamic internal spatial form of the city. This paper analyses 17 LCZ land-use types in Guiyang City in 2013 and 2022, and reclassifies them into 7 RLCZ land-use types based on the height of urban building sites. It also proposes three possible scenarios of BAU, WLC, and SPC in 2040 and simulates their land-use changes using the PLUS model. The results demonstrate that (1) the size of low-rise buildings in Guiyang has declined significantly over the past decade; (2) built-up land within cities is significantly affected by drivers such as night-time lighting, topography, elevation, and roads; (3) the SPC scenario emphasises a development pattern of land intensification and a focus on high density in urban built space. It also protects the stability of the ecosystem. The scenario can provide informative suggestions for spatial pattern changes in rapidly developing cities such as Guiyang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Evaluating the impact of large-scale human activities on carbon storage through land use changes is of growing interest in terrestrial ecosystem assessments. The Huaihe River Basin, a vital Chinese grain production area, has undergone marked land use changes amid socio-economic acceleration. Evaluating the impacts of land use change on carbon storage and future carbon sequestration is imperative for regional ecosystem sustainability and Chinese food security, simultaneously, furnishing data support to regional land use planning and decision-making processes. Nonetheless, the mechanisms linking land use changes to carbon storage and the future carbon reservoir responses remain unclear. We utilized a multi-source dataset and representative scenarios, integrating PLUS, InVEST models, and Geodetector to assess land use change impacts on carbon storage in the Huaihe River Basin (2000–2030). The data indicates the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land decreased by 28,344.69 km2, construction land increased by 26,914.56 km2, and other land types changed little. (2) Land use change resulted a carbon loss of 1.17 × 108 t, primarily due to the expansion of construction land. (3) All four simulation scenarios exhibited diminished carbon storage relative to 2020, with the economic development scenario recording the lowest at 4.98 × 109 t and the ecological protection scenario the highest at 5.06 × 109 t. (4) Elevation predominantly drives carbon storage changes, with its interaction with NPP having the greatest impact. The factors synergistically enhance their explanatory power. The research provides a scientific basis for strategies aimed at augmenting regional carbon sequestration and refining low-carbon land management, safeguarding ecosystem stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the interrelationships between land use, climate change, and regional water yield is critical for effective water resource management and ecosystem protection. However, comprehensive insights into how water yield evolves under different land use scenarios and climate change remain elusive. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Geodetector within a unified framework to evaluate the dynamics of land use, water yield, and their relationships with various factors (meteorological, social, economic, etc.). To forecast the land use/cover change (LUCC) pattern of the Yellow River Basin by 2030, three scenarios were considered: economic development priority (Scenario 1), ecological development priority (Scenario 2), and cropland development priority (Scenario 3). Climate change scenarios were constructed using CMIP6 data, representing low-stress (SSP119), medium-stress (SSP245), and high-stress (SSP585) conditions. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cropland was predominant in the Yellow River Basin, Henan Province, with significant land conversion to impervious land (construction land) and forest land; (2) water yield changes during this period were primarily influenced by meteorological factors, with land use changes having negligible impact; (3) by 2030, the water yield of Scenario 1 is highest among different land use scenarios, marginally surpassing Scenario 2 by 1.60 × 108 m3; (4) climate scenarios reveal significant disparities, with SSP126 yielding 54.95 × 108 m3 higher water yield than SSP245, driven predominantly by precipitation; (5) Geodetector analysis identifies precipitation as the most influential single factor, with significant interactions among meteorological and socio-economic factors. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in formulating land use and water resource management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water yield (WY) service is the cornerstone of ecosystem functionality. Predicting and assessing the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on WY is imperative for a nation's food security, regional economic development, and ecological environmental protection. This study aimed to evaluate the water yield (WY) service in Henan Province, China, using high-resolution (30 m) remote sensing land use monitoring data from four study years: 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. It also utilized the PLUS model to predict the characteristics of LULC evolution and the future trends of WY service under four different development scenarios (for 2030 and 2050). The study's results indicated the following: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the Henan Province's WY first increased and then decreased, ranging from 398.56 × 108 m3 to 482.95 × 108 m3. The southern and southeastern parts of Henan Province were high-value WY areas, while most of its other regions were deemed low-value WY areas. (2) The different land use types were ranked in terms of their WY capacity, from strongest to weakest, as follows: unused land, cultivated land, grassland, construction land, woodland, and water. (3) The four abovementioned scenarios were ranked, from highest to lowest, based on the Henan's total WY (in 2050) in each of them: high-quality development scenario (HDS), business-as-usual scenario (BAU), cultivated land protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (ES). This study contributes to the advancement of ecosystem services research. Its results can provide scientific support for water resource management, sustainable regional development, and comprehensive land-use planning in Henan Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land cover change influences the provision of regional ecosystem services, posing a threat to regional ecological security and sustainable development. The Kuye River Basin, a vital tributary of the Yellow River Basin, has experienced significant land cover changes due to intense human activity. Building on analysing the spatiotemporal evolution of land use cover and ecosystem service values from 1990 to 2022, this study predicted the land cover structure and ecosystem service value with two future scenarios, the NDC and the EPC, to provide insights into guiding sustainable policy interventions. We found the predominant land cover types were greensward and forest land, accounting for 67.22% of the total area. Forest land, greensward, and farmland have increased, while desert, water area, and other land types have decreased from 1990 to 2022. Forest land, greensward, farmland, and water areas are the main contributors to ecosystem service value in the Kuye River Basin. However, water area services have significantly decreased from 1990 to 2022. Under the NDC scenario, land development primarily relies on greensward and farmland, reducing forest and water areas and weakening the ecosystem's regulatory and supporting functions. In contrast, the EPC scenario enhances ecosystem services by protecting critical ecological regions. Ecological protection measures significantly increase the ecosystem service values of the Kuye River Basin, and well-planned land use can effectively balance economic development with ecological preservation. This study provides scientific evidence to inform policies integrating ecological protection and economic growth, contributing to the sustainable development of the Kuye River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water conservation is crucial for sustainable ecosystem development in loess gully regions. The redlines of permanent basic farmland protection and ecological protection are key land use control zones in China, yet their impact on water conservation is understudied. The study focuses on Yan'an and constructs three scenarios: natural development (NDS), farmland protection (FPS), and ecological protection (EPS). Then, land use simulation for the three scenarios in 2025, 2030, and 2035 is carried out using the patch-generating land use simulation model. Finally, the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs model is combined to calculate water conservation. The findings suggest the following: (1) From the temporal perspective, the water conservation of the three scenarios exhibits an incremental trend by period from 2025 to 2035, with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.65‰ for the NDS, 0.60‰ for the FPS, and 0.64‰ for the EPS. (2) From the scenario perspective, from 2025 to 2035, the annual water conservation under the FPS is 0.35‰ less than that under the NDS, while the impact of the EPS is weak at only ±0.1‰. (3) Across all scenarios, the average water conservation depth of grassland surpasses that of forestland. This study provides scientific evidence to help optimize China's land space governance policy as well as methodological and theoretical support for related studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change profoundly impacts habitat quality, necessitating an understanding of historical and future trends for effective regional planning and ecological protection, particularly in ecologically sensitive areas. This study examines the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB), a region undergoing significant land use changes and exhibiting considerable ecological vulnerability. Utilizing the InVEST model (v3.14.2), we analyzed the dynamics of land use and habitat quality in the TLB from 2000 to 2020. We subsequently employed the PLUS model (v1.40) to predict future land use and habitat quality under various scenarios. Our key findings include the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, TLB experienced a 97.62% increase in construction land, alongside significant reductions in cultivated land and forestland. (2) Population density, precipitation, DEM, and temperature were identified as the main drivers of land use expansion in TLB. (3) Habitat quality declined by 11.20% over the study period, exhibiting spatial disparities including higher quality in the southwest and central regions and lower quality in the east and north. (4) Scenarios prioritizing urban development led to substantial construction land expansion and reduced habitat quality, whereas scenarios emphasizing ecological protection effectively mitigated habitat fragmentation. This study highlights the critical need to integrate ecological protection into regional planning to balance economic development with environmental sustainability. The findings underscore the importance of prioritizing ecological conservation in land use policies to maintain habitat quality and promote sustainable development in the TLB. These insights are valuable for guiding future land use planning and ecological management in similarly sensitive regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of soil erosion in a region can provide an effective reference for local ecological environment management. The Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau54 is an important ecological security barrier in southwest China, owing to its unique climatic and environmental characteristics and superior natural resource endowment. The current research focus is the spatial analysis of a certain area. In this study, soil erosion in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau during 2000–2030 was analyzed and predicted from two aspects of structure and spatial layout by coupling several models. The report also analyzes the shift in the center of gravity of land use and analyzes the drivers of soil erosion, analyzing soil erosion by land use type. The study shows a decreasing trend in the soil erosion modulus from 2000 to 2020 from 1183.69 to 704.58 t·hm−2·a−1, but it is expected to have an increasing trend in the future and will increase to 877.72 t·hm−2·a−1. Analyzing the drivers of soil erosion allows for testing whether the factor affects the spatial distribution of the independent variable and to what extent it explains that dependent variable. This study showed that elevation had the highest explanatory power for soil erosion. Relatively high mountainous areas are often subject to greater soil erosion due to their steep topography, resulting in poorer vegetation cover. The north–south offset distance is greater than the east–west offset distance for forested land, water and unutilized land, and the east–west offset distance is greater than the north–south offset distance for cropland, grassland and built-up land in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau. The purpose of this study is to identify areas of serious soil erosion vulnerability in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, and to analyze the driving factors affecting soil erosion vulnerability, so as to provide a basis for regional soil erosion management, and, at the same time, to provide a reference for the government to formulate soil and water conservation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Sanmenxia Reservoir wetland (SRW) serves as a critical ecological buffer in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Ongoing population growth and changes in land use have placed significant pressure on the wetland’s ecosystems. However, existing research has yet to establish a spatiotemporal analysis method to assess the impact of land use change on the ecosystem service value (ESV). This gap hinders the precise regulation and sustainable development of land resources. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the land use dynamics and ecological functions of the SRW, this study introduced a refined ESV evaluation method. This method revised the equivalent factors from spatial, temporal, and hydrological perspectives, with an emphasis on the impact of sediment discharge. Furthermore, the Patch-level Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was employed to project the land use structure in 2030, and the corresponding ESV was analyzed. The study revealed the following: (1) Cropland constituted the primary land type in the SRW. Over the last two decades, the build-up area exhibited the most significant single land use dynamics, with the transformation of bare land to cropland spanning the widest range and largest area. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the ESV increased by 0.64 billion CNY, with the water body contributing almost all the increase. (3) The projected ESV for 2030 is 2.94 billion CNY, indicating an increase in ecological functions in the near future. Policy makers should recognizethe impact of land use change on ESV and implement measures to rebalance land use structure. While ensuring the preservation of cropland and the protection of lives and property, it is advisable to consider expanding the water body area to facilitate comprehensive sustainable development within SRW.

In the context of global efforts to address climate change, research into regional carbon neutrality strategies has become especially critical. For developing countries and regions, it is essential to scientifically and rationally assessing the paths for small-scale regional transformations under carbon neutrality imperatives to effectively implement low-carbon transition measures. This study utilizes Chongming District in Shanghai of China as a case to establish a framework for forecasting carbon emission and sink from a multi-dimensional natural-social perspective. This facilitates the simulation and optimization of pathways for carbon neutrality transformation. The results indicate: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the total regional carbon emission exhibited a rising trend, while the total carbon sink initially declined then increased, indicating potential enhancement zone with significant potential and space for carbon neutrality development. (2) Enhanced management of ecological spaces and land use planning result in notable increases in carbon sink. Strategic measures such as emission and consumption reductions, alongside energy transitions, effectively controlled carbon emission growth and facilitated comprehensive decarbonization. (3) By combining ecological priority with enhanced control and balanced development with enhanced control, the region can achieve carbon neutrality. This showcases the effective role of policy regulation in facilitating high-quality carbon–neutral transformations. (4)Effective ecosystem management along with robust reduction and transition strategies enable county-level carbon–neutral transformations, offering a model and methodological support for other developing regions facing the twin challenges of economic growth and environmental sustainability.

Increasingly frequent land evolution in China seriously impacts the sustainable supply of ecosystem services as well as the economy's steady and sustainable growth. Driven by physiographic, socioeconomic, and transportation accessibility factors, China has experienced significant mutual changes among gra ssland, forest, unused land, and cropland over the past 20 years, particularly before 2010. Projections for 2030 and 2060 indicate an increase in cropland, accompanied by a degradation of forest and grassland. Future land changes will vary under different policy scenarios. Specifically, the source of urbanization land will shift from cropland to grassland if cropland is protected, whereas cropland areas will continue to decrease under the environmental preservation scenario. In the future, China should maintain agricultural policies based on cropland protection and the ecological restoration policy that places an emphasis on natural restoration. These findings provide a reference for achieving sustainable land development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Objective] This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the carbon cycle by analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration and its response to land use/land cover (LULC) change, so as to effective guidance for carbon management and ecological restoration strategies. [Methods] InVEST and PLUS models were used to simulate and predict the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration from 1990 to 2030. By combining data on LULC change, the relationship between carbon storage and LULC change was quantitatively analyzed. [Results] (1) From 1990 to 2020, the land types of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration were mainly forestland, cropland, and grassland, and forestland, cropland, and construction land showed an increasing trend, among which construction land increased the largest. (2) Carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration presented a change characteristics of “first increase and then decrease, gradually stabilize”, reaching a maximum value of 1.46×109 t in 2000, and decreasing to 1.45×109 t in 2020, showing a spatial distribution characteristic of “higher in the west, lower in the east”. (3) The carbon storage predictions under different future development scenarios indicated that, compared with 2020, all four scenarios showed a declining trend in carbon storage by 2030, among which the ecological development scenario experienced the least decline, with a reduction of 0.43×107 t compared with 2020, while the cropland development scenario exhibited the most significant decline, with a reduction of 1.05×107 t compared with 2020. (4) The conversion between cultivated land and forestland was the primary factor affecting carbon storage. Specifically, the transformation of cultivated land into forests plays a crucial role in increasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration. Forest expansion significantly enhanced regional carbon storage, while a reduction in grassland negatively impacted carbon storage. [Conclusion] The conversion of forestland and cultivated land has a significant impact on increasing or decreasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.

Abstract Land-use change is the main driver of carbon storage change in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, domestic and international studies mainly focus on the impact of carbon storage changes on climate, while studies on the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage in complex terrestrial ecosystems are few. The Jialing River Basin (JRB), with a total area of ~ 160,000 km2, diverse topography, and elevation differences exceeding 5 km, is an ideal case for understanding the complex interactions between land-use change and carbon storage dynamics. Taking the JRB as our study area, we analyzed land-use changes from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, we simulated land-use patterns for business-as-usual (BAU), cropland protection (CP), and ecological priority (EP) scenarios in 2035 using the PLUS model. Additionally, we assessed carbon storage using the InVEST model. This approach helps us to accurately understand the carbon change processes in regional complex terrestrial ecosystems and to formulate scientifically informed land-use policies. The results revealed the following: (1) Cropland was the most dominant land-use type (LUT) in the region, and it was the only LUT experiencing net reduction, with 92.22% of newly designated construction land originating from cropland. (2) In the JRB, total carbon storage steadily decreased after 2005, with significant spatial heterogeneity. This pattern was marked by higher carbon storage levels in the north and lower levels in the south, with a distinct demarcation line. The conversion of cropland to construction land is the main factor driving the reduction in carbon storage. (3) Compared with the BAU and EP scenarios, the CP scenario demonstrated a smaller reduction in cropland area, a smaller addition to construction land area, and a lower depletion in the JRB total carbon storage from 2020 to 2035. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the PLUS and InVEST models in analyzing complex ecosystems and offers data support for quantitatively assessing regional ecosystem services. Strict adherence to the cropland replenishment task mandated by the Chinese government is crucial to increase cropland areas in the JRB and consequently enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of its ecosystem. Such efforts are vital for ensuring the food and ecological security of the JRB, particularly in the pursuit of the “dual-carbon” objective.

[Objective] The temporal and spatial changes of land use and carbon storage in the Pearl River Basin in the past 20 years and the next 10 years were analyzed in order to provide a reference for the optimization of land use pattern and ecosystem carbon sequestration management in the Pearl River Basin. [Methods] Based on the land use data of 2002, 2012, and 2022, this paper analyzed the changes of land use types, used the PLUS model to simulate the land use pattern under the natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario in 2032, and used the InVEST model to evaluate the changes of ecosystem carbon storage under the three scenarios. [Results] The land types in the Pearl River Basin have changed greatly in the past 20 years, and the one-way conversion of cultivated land to construction land and the two-way conversion between cultivated land and forest land were the main characteristics of land use change in the Pearl River Basin. During the same period, the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems showed a downward trend as a whole, with a decrease of 0.52%. The carbon storage projection in 2032 shows that the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario is significantly higher than that under the cultivated land protection scenario and the natural development scenario, which are 4.81×106 and 10.22×106 t higher, respectively. [Conclusion] Therefore, when formulating land use planning in the future, decision-makers should consider the balance between economic development and ecological protection, strengthen the concept of ecological protection and green development in river basins, increase the function of land carbon storage, and help achieve the “double carbon” goal and regional sustainable development.

[Objective] This study was aimed to estimate the amount of water conservation in Shaanxi Province. [Methods] The InVEST model and PLUS model were coupled to calculate the water conservation amount in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 and predict the water conservation amount under land use changes in the future in 2030. [Results] The average water conservation amount in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 was 132.25 mm, with a spatial distribution characteristic of gradually increasing water conservation from north to south. From the perspective of vegetation types, forest land was the main body of water conservation in Shaanxi Province. The average annual water conservation amount was 199.55×108 m3. From the administrative region, Ankang City had the largest water conservation amount(308.96 mm). The total amount of water source conservation in 2030 will be 285.16×108 m3 and 8.68×108 m3 less than that in 2020. [Conclusion] The water conservation amount of Shaanxi Province will show a slight downward trend from 2020 to 2030 in the future.

Abstract Studying the carbon effect of land use in watersheds is important for mitigating global warming, promoting coordinated emission reduction in different regions within the watersheds, and realizing high-quality development of the watersheds. Although a number of scholars have carried out relevant studies in the past, they mainly focused on carbon emissions, rarely involved the carbon balance formed by carbon sources and sinks, and lacked relevant studies on the development of low-carbon economy sub-region. Based on this, this study takes the Yellow River Basin as an example, explores the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions from land use in counties in the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2020, and predicts the spatial pattern of carbon income and expenditure from land use under natural conditions in 2030 and 2060 using the PLUS model; and then superimposes on the main functional area planning, divides 735 counties in the Yellow River Basin into six low-carbon economic development subregions, and analyzes their economic development The model of their economic development is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the spatial and temporal differentiation of land use carbon balance in the Yellow River Basin has changed greatly over the past 40 years, (2) the spatial distribution pattern of land use carbon balance in the natural context in 2030 and 2060 is more similar to that in 1990, (3) the carbon emission reduction potentials and pattern optimization of the different low-carbon economic development subregions differ greatly, and they have different low-carbon economic development patterns. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis for scientifically and rationally formulating economic policies for low-carbon development in the counties of the Yellow River Basin, and also provide an important reference for related studies in other similar basins or regions in the world.

The Kuye River is the second largest tributary of the middle Yellow River. (1) Background: The Kuye River Basin, a typical erosion area of the Loess Plateau region, faces significant environmental challenges and intense human activities. Balancing environmental sustainability and economic development in this region is urgent. (2) Methods: This study analyses the phenomena, evolutionary processes, driving mechanisms, and future development trends. We assess ecological risks and drivers of land use change using data from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2022. (3) Results: Farmland, grassland, and construction land are the main land use types, accounting for 85.63% of the total area. Construction land increased by 7.95 times over 22 years, mainly due to the conversion of woodland, grassland, and farmland. The landscape pattern increased in patches from 4713 in 2000 to 6522 in 2022. Patch density decreased from 0.0945 to 0.0771 between 2000 and 2015, then rose to 0.0788 in 2022. Post-2015, increased human intervention and urban development led to significant landscape fragmentation and higher ecological risk, expected to persist until 2030. Geographical detector analysis identified distance from roads, distance from cities, night light, and precipitation as key factors influencing landscape ecological risk. The interaction of anthropogenic disturbance with other factors showed a non-linear increase in risk, with combined factors having a greater impact than individual ones. (4) Conclusions: The Kuye River Basin's landscape ecological risk is influenced by both natural conditions and human activities. To achieve sustainability, it is essential to protect critical areas, regulate development, and improve the adaptive management of ecological risks through innovative policies, integrated regulations, and technological solutions for ecosystem restoration. These findings provide empirical evidence to support decision-making and underscore the need for comprehensive strategies to mitigate ecological risks and promote sustainable development in the Kuye River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape pattern is one of the most intuitive manifestations of land use change. In order to evaluate the evolution of land use and landscape pattern in Luoyang city, and then provide reference for land resource management and ecosystem protection in Luoyang City, based on the remote sensing monitoring data of land use in China from 2000 to 2020 and the PLUS model, the changes of land use type and landscape pattern under the inertia development scenario and ecological protection scenario in Luoyang City in 2030 were simulated and predicted. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the land use types of Luoyang are mainly cultivated land, forest land and grassland, and the overall regional land use fluctuation is small, and land use is in the development stage. In 2030, under the inertia development scenario, the land evolution rate of Luoyang City is increased, and the ecological land use shows a shrinking trend. Under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land is limited, the ecological land area increased, and the regional ecological benefit increased significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document provides a list of references to scientific articles and studies that explore various aspects of land use change and urban development in China and other regions. The articles cover topics such as modeling urban open spaces, simulating future land use scenarios, analyzing the impact of land use change on ecosystem services, and predicting land surface temperature under climate change scenarios. These articles offer valuable insights into the complex relationship between land use, urbanization, and environmental sustainability. [Extracted from the article]

[Objective] The aims of this study are to explore the response of ecosystem service value (ESV) to land use change, and to improve the sustainability of ecosystem service function in central Guizhou. [Methods] In this study, urban agglomeration of central Guizhou was taken as an example. Statistical analysis and spatial autocorrelation method were used to assess the land use change and ESV spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of urban agglomeration of central Guizhou from 2000 to 2020, and the spatial pattern of land use and its ESV change under different development scenarios in 2030 was predicted by coupling with PLUS model. [Results] (1) The land use change in the study area from 2000 to 2020 was mainly manifested in the transformation of cropland and grassland to construction land and waters, and affected by the land use change, the ESV of the study area increased by 11.28 hundred million yuan from 2000 to 2020, showing a fluctuating upward trend, and the expansion of waters and construction land area was the main reason for the change of ESV in the study area. (2) The decrease area of ESV from 2000 to 2020 was mainly distributed in the center urban area with better economic development, and the increase area was mainly distributed near rivers, lakes and other waters. The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high and low agglomeration areas in the study area were widely distributed and strongly clustered, with the high and high agglomeration areas mainly concentrated in the northwestern part of the study area and the low and low agglomeration areas mainly concentrated in the central part of the study area. (3) The ESV under the nature scenario, cropland protection and ecological protection scenarios in 2030 are 710.22 hundred million, 705.33 hundred million and 720.62 hundred million yuan, respectively, and the ecological protection scenario has an obvious positive effect on the growth of ESV in the study area. [Conclusion In the future. the urban agglomeration of central Guizhou can continue to strengthen the policy of returning farmland to forests to improve the value of ecosystem services in terms of ecological environment, and it should formulate a more reasonable and comprehensive development strategy in terms of urban development, which can take into account ecological protection while the economy develops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Objective] The aims of this study are to simulate the change of ecosystem service value caused by land use change in karst region, to analyze the response relationship of land use change to ecosystem service value, and to provide scientific basis for regional sustainable development and ecological security protection. [Methods] Guizhou Province, a karst region with fragile ecological environment, was taken as an example. The PLUS model was used to predict land use under different scenarios based on three periods of land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, and to further analyze the characteristics of the changes in ESV under multiple scenarios in terms of spatial distribution. [Results] (1) Among the four preset scenarios, the cultivated land area and forestland area of the natural development scenario showed a large reduction trend, with a reduction of 101 676 hm and 208 481 hm, respectively. (2) Under the four preset scenarios, the 2030 ESV followed the order: dual cropland and ecological protection scenario for the study area (48 869.4 million RMB)> ecological protection scenario (48 852.4 million RMB) natural development scenario (48 643.5 million RMB)> cropland protection scenario (47 908,7 million RMB). (3) Under the four preset scenarios, the spatial distribution characteristics of ESV per unit area in the study area in 2020 and under multi-scenario simulation were relatively similar. However, the spatial distribution of its ESV under the natural development scenario significantly reduced in the area of high values. [Conclusion] ESV is closely related to land use change, and rational planning for future land use is the most direct reason for ensuring good ecological quality, and from the perspective of sustainable development, economic development under the scenario of arable land and ecological protection is the best mode of land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use changes are the main cause for the changes of carbon storage, which is of great importance for maintaining regional carbon balance to make multi-scenario projections of future land use change and explore its impacts on carbon storage. In recent years, under the combination of natural factors and policies, with the land use changing significantly, carbon storage of the Weihe River Basin has also changed. Based on the PLUS-InVEST model, we assessed and predicted the spatial and temporal variations of ecosystem carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin and explored the impacts of land-use change. The results showed that land use distribution pattern of the Weihe River Basin did not change much from 2000 to 2020, which was characterized by the decreases of cropland area and the increases of the area of the remaining land use types. The main ways of land use type conversion were cropland to built-up land and inter-conversion of cropland, forest, grassland. Carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2020, with a total increment of 15.31xl06 t. The areas with high carbon storage presented the characteristics of "northeast patch-western scatter-central and southern belt", while low carbon storage distributed in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration located in the lower basin. Compared to 2020, carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin in 2030 would increase under the four scenarios. Carbon storage would increase the least under the economic development scenario, and the most under the ecological protection scenario. The variation of carbon storage in spatial distribution would be embodied in the staggered zone of cropland, forest, and grassland in the upper basin. The results could provide data support for land use management decisions and carbon storage enhancement in the Weihe River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Soil & Water Conservation (1009-2242) is the property of Institute of Soil & Water Conservation and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The effectiveness of ecological security patterns (ESPs) in maintaining regional ecological stability and promoting sustainable development is widely recognized. However, limited research has focused on the early warning of risks inherent in ESPs. In this study, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GHKMGBA) is taken as the study area, and ecological security risk zones are delineated by combining the landscape ecological risk index and habitat quality, and a multi-level ESP is constructed based on the circuit theory. The PLUS model was employed to simulate future built-up land expansion under different scenarios, which were then extracted and overlaid with the multi-level ESP to enable the multi-scenario early warning of ESP risks. The results showed the following: The ESP in the central plains and coastal areas of the GHKMGBA exhibits a high level of ecological security risk, whereas the peripheral forested areas face less threat, which is crucial for regional ecological stability. The ESP, comprising ecological sources, corridors, and pinch points, is crucial for maintaining regional ecological flow stability, with tertiary corridors under significant stress and risk in all scenarios, requiring focused restoration and enhancement efforts. There are significant differences in risk early warning severity within the ESP across various development scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, the ESP will have the best early warning situation, effectively protecting ecological land and reducing ecological damage, providing a valuable reference for regional development policies. However, it must not overlook economic development and still needs to further seek a balance between economic growth and ecological protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of land use can provide guidance for the optimization of land use patterns. Combining the GMOP model with the PLUS model can better evaluate the influence of different land use strategies on the comprehensive benefits of land use and improve the scientificity of the simulation results. This study takes Haikou City as the research area. As the political, economic, and cultural center of Hainan Province, it is the highest urbanization area in Hainan Province and also the vane of the urban development of Hainan Province. Its development experience and model play an important leading role in the surrounding cities. The land use data of 2010, 2015, and 2020 were selected, and the spatiotemporal pattern of land use under the 2035 Business As Usual scenario (BAU), Economic Development scenario (ED), and Economic and Ecological Balanced Development scenario (EEB) was simulated based on the GMOP-PLUS model. The results show that: (1) The prediction results generally show the trend of the decrease in cultivated land and forest land and the increase in construction land, among which the expansion capacity of construction land is the strongest, and the forest land is more occupied, but the increase and decrease in land use types are different under different scenarios. (2) The three simulation scenarios all show the trend of economic benefit improvement and ecological benefit decline, which indicates that the primary objective of Haikou City's future development remains focused on economic construction, with the potential compromise of ecological functions to accommodate urban expansion. (3) The comprehensive benefits of the region in the EEB scenario are significantly higher than those in the BAU and ED scenarios. The optimized land use structure is more balanced, the scale of urban expansion is limited, and the loss of important ecological land is reduced to a minimum, which is more in line with the current concept of sustainable development. The study can serve as a reference for the coordinated development of urban planning, land use management, and ecological environment in Haikou. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change drives the ecosystem service value (ESV) to some extent. Investigating the impact of land use distribution patterns under different scenarios on ESV is crucial for optimizing land spatial utilization in tropical island regions. This study employs a combination of multi-objective programming (MOP) and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate and predict the spatial distribution of land use in Hainan Island for the year 2030 under three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection priority, and tourism development priority. The ESV for these scenarios is then assessed to provide insights into the sustainable economic, social, and ecological development of tropical island regions. The results indicate the following: (1) Between 2010 and 2020, forest land was the dominant land use type in Hainan Island, accounting for 63% of the total area, followed by arable land. Land use changes were characterized mainly by increases in built-up land and grass land, which increased by 497.13 km2 and 18.87 km2, respectively, with decreases in other types. The largest area of land conversion was from forest land, which was predominantly converted to built-up land and arable land, measuring 259.97 km2 and 174.49 km2, respectively. (2) The PLUS model was used to simulate land use changes in Hainan Island, achieving a Kappa coefficient of 0.88 and an overall accuracy of 0.94, indicating a high consistency between the simulation results and actual data. (3) The ecological protection priority scenario yielded the highest ecosystem service values (CNY 72.052 billion), while the values under other scenarios decreased compared to 2020. The natural development scenario saw a decrease of CNY 1.821 billion, and the tourism development priority scenario saw a decrease of CNY 0.595 billion. Spatially, the ecological protection priority scenario also showed the greatest increase in areas with high ecosystem service values, particularly due to an increase in forest land area, which contributed to an overall increase in the ecosystem service values of the study area. This study offers a scientific foundation and a decision-making reference for selecting priority scenarios for tourism development on Hainan Island, aimed at supporting its future sustainable development. It emphasizes the protection of forest resources, the promotion of greening initiatives, and the achievement of a balance between ecological preservation and tourism activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the reorganization of rural land-use space exhibits a dynamic process of expansion and shrinkage. Taking the Wuhan Metropolitan Area as an example, this study used the InVEST model to quantitatively assess changes in rural built-up land between 1995 and 2020 and its impact on regional carbon storage. Combined with the PLUS model, further simulations were carried out to predict the heterogeneous mechanisms of shrinkage and expansion of rural habitable space under three scenarios in 2030. The results indicate that the area of rural built-up land in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area showed an overall increasing trend, with shrinkage mainly concentrated in the Wuhan-Ezhou border, Tianmen, and southern Xiantao, while expansion displayed a decentralized point distribution. The PLUS model predicts that, in the scenario of rural built-up land expansion, a significant amount of cropland is encroached upon. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the impact of rural habitat changes on the carbon cycle. Future land management and planning should pay more attention to maintaining ecosystem services and considering the environmental effects of changes in rural built-up land layout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implementation of an urban growth boundary (UGB) can effectively control urban sprawl and promote efficient land use, which is crucial for future urban development. However, most of existing studies overlook the reuse of existing idle and inefficient land within the city in the delineation of UGBs. With China's urban construction shifting from incremental development to stock development, this study focuses on Wuhan and presents a set of technical approaches for delineating UGBs with a stock development orientation. First, a built-up area composite index (POI&ISA) is constructed based on point of interest (POI) kernel density analysis and impervious surface index extraction to evaluate constructive levels in 2010 and 2020 and identify the urban vitality zone. Then, we combine the current land use status and control policies to divide the urban spatial development potential into five categories: urban vitality land, urban non-vitality land, other vitality land, other non-vitality land, and restricted development land. Finally, the PLUS model is applied in the analysis of the driving forces of land use change in Wuhan, simulating the UGBs in three stages of incremental development (2020–2030), incremental and stock development (2030–2040), and stock development (2040–2050). Finally, the PLUS model simulation projects the UGB areas to be 436.436 km2, 474.617 km2, and 520.396 km2 for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. The predicted timespan of urban development extends up to 30 years, serving as a reliable reference for Wuhan's long-term and near-term planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has become a major worldwide problem, and land use/cover change has consistently played a crucial role in impacting the carbon cycle within terrestrial ecosystems. Territorial spatial planning stands as a relatively good policy option for the low-carbon model. The spatial correlation between carbon emissions and land use was established through environmental parameters in this paper. The territorial spatial structures in 2035 and 2060 under two scenarios of natural evolution and low-carbon development were simulated through the PLUS model. The results indicate that the spatial pattern of decreasing carbon emissions centered on towns, cities, mines, and industries is related to regional economic development, the distribution of forests, and the urban ecological environment. The implementation of territorial spatial planning aids in achieving carbon neutrality, whereas the low-carbon development scenario is more focused on it, which can provide ideas for territorial spatial planning adjustments. Both scenarios result in a large area of fallow land, indicating some conflict between farmland protection and low-carbon development. Optimizing management measures, energy structure, and industrial layout and strengthening regional coordination are key to promoting low-carbon development. This study might be useful in formulating regional carbon-neutral policies and improving territorial spatial planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment and prediction analyses of the ecological environmental quality of river basins are pivotal to realize ecological protection and high-quality coordinated development. Methods: The PLUS and InVEST models were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land-use in the Fen River Basin and simulate the spatial pattern of land-use under natural development (ND), ecological protection (EC), and economic development (ED) scenarios in 2030, as well as evaluate habitat quality (HQ) and its spatiotemporal variation characteristics from 2000 to 2030. From 2000 to 2020, the Fen River Basin consisted primarily of cultivated land, followed by forests, and then unused land. Habitat quality in the Fen River Basin showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2020. Between 2010 and 2020, the rate of decline decreased, and by 2030, the HQ in the EC scenario exhibited improvement compared to 2020. However, there was a reduction in HQ in the natural development and economic development scenarios and there was obvious heterogeneity in spatial distribution, showing the characteristics of "low middle and high edge". The cultivated land was converted into forests, construction land, and grasslands, and the conversion of construction land and forests to cultivated land dominated the changes in HQ in the Fen River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water yield is a critical component of hydrological ecosystem services, influenced by both natural environments and human activities. Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are particularly pivotal in causing water yield variations at the basin level, particularly for the ecologically fragile Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) in southern Jiangxi province, China. Over the last 33 years, the GRB has undergone substantial LULC changes that have significantly affected its water yield. Initially, this study assessed water yield from 1990 to 2022 using the InVEST model, then predicted future LULC scenarios using the PLUS model, including natural development (ND), cropland protection (CP), ecological protection (EP), and urban development (UD). The Geodetector model was then employed to analyze the influence of various factors on water yield changes. Key findings include the following: (1) Significant landscape changes were observed, including increases in impervious surfaces, cropland, and water areas, accompanied by substantial reductions in forest and other natural lands. The most pronounced decline occurred in forested regions. (2) The total water yield decreased by 0.44 × 1010 m3 over the study period, exhibiting fluctuations until 2016 and stabilizing afterward. Water yield was generally higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest, primarily influenced by actual evapotranspiration, LULC, and precipitation. (3) The impact of LULC changes on water yield varied by scenario, with the scenarios ranked from most to least impactful as follows: UD, ND, CP, EP. This variation is mainly due to the different rates of evapotranspiration and infiltration associated with land cover. These insights are crucial for guiding policymakers in developing effective LULC strategies that promote ecological restoration and sustainable water management in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water conservation is an important ecosystem service, which is crucial to the fragile ecological environment and serious soil erosion in Northwest China. However, water conservation has been affected by climate change and human disturbance, and its future spatial and temporal changes are still unclear. This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade‐offs (InVEST) model to assess the water conservation capacity of Northwest China between 1990 and 2020. Subsequently, the Patch‐generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6) were integrated to examine changes in water conservation from 2030 to 2050. The water conservation quantity in Northwest China had a fluctuating growth tendency between 1990 and 2020, with an average of 816.61 × 108 m3. The water conservation capacity's regional distribution pattern shows a steady increase from northwest to southeast. Northwest China's forest land had the greatest water conservation capacity between 1990 and 2020, at 66 mm, while the water land had the lowest, at 1.46 mm. The water conservation capacity in the 2030–2050 future scenario is less than that in 2020 when the regional distribution pattern is comparable to 2020. Natural development scenario (ND) in 2030 has the lowest water conservation capacity (13.41 mm) under ssp1‐2.6 precipitation scenario, whereas in 2050, the highest water conservation capacity (17.47 mm) is found in same scenario. The ecological protection scenario (EP) has the greatest water retention capacity (18.15 mm in 2040) and the lowest (14.38 mm in 2050) in the ssp5‐8.5 scenario. Our research can help restore and rebuild Northwest China's natural ecosystem and offer a theoretical foundation for the protection of ecological environment and the rational utilization of water resources in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid urbanization has exerted the considerable pressure on land resources and infrastructure, leading to urban sprawl. The delineation of urban growth boundaries (UGBs) has been one of the most crucial tools to manage and curb the urban sprawl. The delineation can also be optimized to alleviate the land-use conflicts for the sustainable urban development. The second-largest city in Shaanxi Province, Xianyang City is similar to the most middle-sized cities in China, indicating the rapid development with the land-use conflicts and ecological crises. In this study, the ecological protection areas of the high importance were delineated as the agricultural production and urban construction suitability areas, according to the "Dual-Evaluation" framework. The "top-down" policy constraints were served as the delineation of UGBs. Concurrently, the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was employed to conduct to meet the resource requirements and development potential in the study area. Future demands were forecasted and simulated for the land use. A "bottom-up" demand-driven approach was used to promote the rational use of land resources in the sustainable development of the environment. The delineation of UGBs was also in line with the local needs of actual development. Additionally, the erosion-dilation test was also employed to remove the noise points from the UGBs, particularly for the smoother and easier to manage. The results showed that: 1) The southern region was predominantly focused on urban development, where the area of 1 368.98 km² was designated as the urban construction. Meanwhile, the northern was prioritized the ecological protection, where the area of 3 853.04 km² was unsuitable for construction. 2) The PLUS model was used to simulate the urban construction land in 2040, which was 133.86 km² under the constraints of suitability evaluation. Compared with the natural development scenario, there was a significant reduction in the unused land area, along with an increase in the areas of arable land, forest land, and construction land, in order to facilitate the efficient use of land. 3) The erosion and dilation were integrated to exclude the unsuitable area for urban construction. The bottom-line UGBs was delineated as 3863.39 km²; The alternate UGBs was 852.28 km², which was composed of the suitable urban construction zones; The priority UGBs was 134.84 km² in the distribution range of urban construction land by 2040. The triple functional boundaries were established to promote the more compact and continuous urban pattern after morphological adjustments, thus guiding the direction of urban development. This approach can offer a novel perspective and scientific rationale to delineate the UGBs in the urbanization, in order to balance the development and protection. The conflicts among urban development, farmland protection and ecological conservation can also be determined to enable the coordinated development among population, resources and the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimizing the layout of agricultural and fishery land utilization space in coastal tidal flats is an essential step in promoting the construction of“Blue Granary”and the sustainable utilization of tidal flat resources. Based on remote sensing and GIS technology, this study revealed the evolution characteristics of agricultural and fishery spatial utilization pattern in the tidal flat reclamation area in the southern Yellow River Delta from 1995 to 2020, as well as combined ecological suitability assessment, ecological network construction, and land use change model. The main land use change pattern of tidal flat agriculture and fishery under different development scenarios in 2035 was predicted by simulation and suggestions for spatial layout optimization and adjustment were proposed. The results showed that: during the study period, the total area of agricultural planting and mariculture utilization of tidal flats increased first and then decreased, which grew from 924.62 km² in 1995 to 1 224.96 km² in 2004, with the scale beginning to decrease after 2004, and dedined to 1 129.38 km² in 2020. The spatial distribution pattern of paddy field and aquaculture pond changed noticeably, as did the spatial aggregation of dry land, the open aquaculture in the sea area gradually expanded away from the coast, and the spatial distribution of main agricultural and fishery utilization in the tidal flat area demonstrated clear land-sea gradient differentiation. The current distribution of agricultural planting and mariculture is ecologically suitable, however, the future growth space of agricultural planting is limited, and the development potentials of beach pond aquaculture and open aquaculture remain certain. Strict environmental protection measures for wetlands limit the expansion of agricultural planting and mariculture utilization space. The land use scale of beach agricultural planting and mariculture will increase significantly under the development scenario of agriculture and fishery, however, attention must be paid to the rational development of unused land, the improvement of the ecological connectivity of beach land and sea, and the application and promotion of efficient ecological agricultural planting and mariculture utilization model. The results may provide decision support for the high-quality agriculture and fishery development in the Yellow River Delta. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of ecosystem services value (ESV) and the driving mechanism thereof, the coupled PLUS-Geodetector model was used to simulate land-use scenarios from 2018 to 2034 in Hotan region and to analyze the trend of changes in ESV and the driving mechanism from the perspective of industrial development. The results are as follows：eight land-use types, neighborhood weights under different scenarios, and the PLUS model was used for simulation to obtain the three land-use scenarios of natural evolution, economic priority, and ecological protection in 2034. Under all three scenarios, the total ESV in Hotan region increased, with the highest increase being in the ecological protection scenario and the lowest being in the economic priority scenario. Except for the southern mountainous areas and the areas near the waters in the north-central part that were high -, second high -, and medium-value areas, the distribution of ESV showed the general characteristics of being dominated by low-value and second-low-value areas, with the high being in the south and the low being in the north. From 2010 to 2018, Hotan′s substantial changes in ESV were mainly concentrated in areas adjacent to the central town development axis, while in 2018—2034, the spatial change range of ESV will be further expanded, and the rapid expansion of cultivated land and construction land to the north and south of the town axis brought about by the rapid development of agriculture, animal husbandry, and industry was the main factor causing the spatial changes in ESV. The expansion of man-made landuse types in the economic priority scenario occurred faster, while that of the ecological protection scenario was the opposite. The current status and evolution of ESV in Hotan region is the result of the combined effects of natural and social-economic factors. Natural factors have stronger driving effects on ESV in Hotan region than socio-economic factors, while pastoralism and industry have stronger driving effects among socio-economic factors. The driving force of two-factor interactions is greater than that of one-factor, and the driving force of the interaction among industries is higher than that of a single industry. The study showed that different development modes will reveal differences in the quantity and distribution of ESV in Hotan region. Various factors and their interactions within each industry have considerable driving effects on the changes of ESV. Scientific planning of development routes based on the evaluation and analysis of the driving mechanism of ESV has great significance to the sustainable and high-quality development of Hotan region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the runoff of numerous rivers has experienced substantial changes owing to the dual influences of climate change and human activities. This study focuses on the Lixian hydrological station's controlled basin, located in the upper reaches of the Jialing River in China. The objective is to assess and quantify the impacts of human activities and climate change on runoff variations. This study analyzed runoff variations from 1960 to 2016 and employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and eight Budyko framework formulations to assess factors influencing runoff. Additionally, it used the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) and SWAT models to simulate future runoff scenarios under various conditions. The results indicate the following. (1) The study area has witnessed a significant decline in runoff (p < 0.01), while potential evapotranspiration shows a significant upward trend (p < 0.01). Precipitation displays a nonsignificant decreasing trend (p > 0.1). An abrupt change point in runoff occurred in 1994, dividing the study period into baseline and change periods. (2) The Budyko results reveal that human activities contributed 50% to 60% to runoff changes. According to the SWAT and LSTM models, the contribution rates of human activities are 63.21% and 52.22%, respectively. Human activities are thus identified as the predominant factor in the decline in runoff. (3) Human activities primarily influence runoff through land cover changes. Conservation measures led to a notable increase in forested areas from 1990 to 2010, representing the most significant change among land types. (4) Future land use scenarios suggest that the highest simulated runoff occurs under a comprehensive development scenario, while the lowest is observed under an ecological conservation scenario. Among the 32 future climate scenarios, runoff increases significantly with a 10% increase in precipitation and decreases substantially with a 15% reduction in precipitation. These findings underscore the significant impact of human activities and climate change on runoff variations in the upper reaches of the Jialing River, highlighting the importance of incorporating both factors in water resource management and planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern foothill of the Qinling Mountains region has been one of the unique ecological treasures in China, due to the rich and diverse ecological environment, as well as the complex terrain and variable climate. However, it is ever increasing impact of human activities on the local natural environment and ecosystems, as economic development and population growth. Severe challenges have posed on the protection of the ecological environment. Consequently, it is urgent to investigate the ecological environment quality in the stability and sustainable development of the ecosystem. This study aims to assess the ecological sensitivity in the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains using the driving-force-pressure-state-impact-response-management (DPSIRM) and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. Initially, 17 indicators were selected to evaluate the ecological sensitivity in 2010, 2015 and 2020, according to the DPSIRM framework. Furthermore, the PLUS model was employed to simulate the spatial distribution of land use from 2020 to 2030. Various scenarios were also considered to integrate the present ecological situation. Subsequently, the simulated and predicted data of land use was served as the key influencing factors to assess the ecological environment. The spatial distribution of ecological sensitivity was predicted in the study area in the future. The findings reveal that the ecologically sensitive regions within the northern foothills were primarily centered around the urban core, indicating the greater resilience to disturbance, as the distance increased from urban centers. Furthermore, the proportion of non-sensitive areas gradually increased from 9% to 26% between 2010 and 2020, with the highest share of low-sensitive zones in 2010 (38%), medium-sensitive zones peaking in 2015 (28%), and the highest proportion of low-sensitive regions in 2020 (30%). Notably, the proportion of extremely sensitive zones was remained relatively low and consistent (5%-10%), indicating an overall favorable trend of the gradual improvement in the ecological environment over time. Furthermore, the patterns of land use were primarily comprised the farmland, woodland, and grassland, according to some projections under three distinct scenarios in the period from 2020 to 2030. Therefore, the ecological preservation was aligned with development and prioritizing sustainable strategies, which was most closely with current ecological objectives. The spatial distribution of ecological sensitivity was obtained within the context of ecological protection. Pertinent measures can be concurrently implemented in distinct sensitive areas. A robust foundation can be offered for the whole development and sustainable utilization of the ecosystem. The findings can also provide the solid refence to preserve the stability and sustainable ecosystem, particularly for the rational allocation and utilization of production, living, and ecological zones within the Qinling region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Arid Zone Research / Ganhanqu Yanjiu is the property of Arid Zone Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Arid Zone Research / Ganhanqu Yanjiu is the property of Arid Zone Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Studying urban land use and its impact on carbon emissions is crucial for achieving China's dual carbon goals. This research utilized the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios 126, 245, and 585 from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), along with a coupled System Dynamics (SD) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and a carbon emission coefficient method to simulate and predict Xi'an's land use carbon emissions from 2020 to 2040. The results indicate the following: (1) Cultivated and forest lands are the predominant land use types in Xi'an, with cultivated and grassland areas projected to decline under all three SSP scenarios by 2040. The most significant expansion of construction land, primarily at the expense of farmland, is projected under the SSP585 scenario, with an increase of 515.92 km2 by 2040. (2) Land use carbon emissions increased from 414.15 × 104 t in 2000 to 2376.10 × 104 t in 2020, with construction land being the primary source of emissions and forest land serving as the main carbon sink. However, the carbon sink capacity remained low at only 21.38 × 104 t in 2020. (3) Carbon emissions are expected to continue increasing under all scenarios through 2030 and 2040, though at a decreasing rate. The SSP126 scenario predicts the lowest emissions, reaching 9186.00 × 104 t by 2040, while SSP585 predicts the highest at 14,935.00 × 104 t. The findings of this study provide theoretical support for future low-carbon and high-quality urban development strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological restoration is an important strategy for mitigating environmental degradation, and the effectiveness evaluation of ecological restoration is of profound significance for the scientific implementation of restoration projects. This study improved the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. It was used to simulate the land use patterns under multi-scenarios such as natural development (ND), economic priority (EP), and ecological restoration (ER) in 2030. An evaluation framework covering ecological "Restoration–Monitoring–Effectiveness" (RME) was proposed. Based on 30 m high-resolution remote-sensing data from 2000 to 2020, the land use distribution, landscape pattern changes, and ecosystem services under different scenarios were evaluated and predicted in the Yellow River Basin of Sichuan to verify the effectiveness of the evaluation framework. The results showed the following: (1) Under the ER scenario, the transfer of land use types in 2020–2030 was mainly characterized by an increase in the area of wetlands and a decrease in the area of built-up land. (2) There were obvious differences in land use and landscape patterns under different scenarios. Compared with the ND and EP scenarios, the growth of the construction rate was suppressed in the ER scenario, and the coverage of grassland and wetlands increased significantly. (3) The mean values of ecosystem services in the ER scenario were higher than those in the ND and EP scenarios. These findings clearly indicate that the RME evaluation system can accurately evaluate the ecological restoration effects under multi-scenarios in the future, providing a new perspective for ecological restoration evaluation in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, increasing urbanization has profoundly impacted the quality of regional habitats, presenting a severe risk to the ability of a region to develop in a high-quality manner. Therefore, the scientific assessment of the features of habitat quality (HQ) evolution over time and space and the prediction of future trends in changes in the HQ are of great significance for the formulation of effective ecological protection policies. Based on five periods of land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2000 to 2020, InVEST model was used to estimate both geographical and chronological trends in the HQ in the Tuha region, China. Spatial autocorrelation analysis methods were used to assess HQ and spatial aggregation of habitat degradation, and ecological zoning was delineated in conjunction with the Human Footprint Index (HFI). Based on the results of ecological zoning, the study predicted changes in habitat quality (HQ) in 2040 under three scenarios: natural development (ND), ecological preservation (EP), and urban development (UD) by applying the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. The results demonstrated that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the habitat quality in the Tuha region exhibited a downward trend, with the proportion of low HQ increasing from 83.63% to 84.24%. Spatially, high habitat quality (HQ) is mainly concentrated in the Tianshan Mountains. From 2000 to 2020, the Moran index for habitat quality (HQ) decreased from 0.967 to 0.959, while the Moran index for habitat degradation declined from 0.805 to 0.780. The habitat quality (HQ) and degradation exhibit significant spatial aggregation, and the degree of degradation has increased incrementally. (2) From 2000 to 2020, human activities in the Tuha area increased continuously and were mainly concentrated in Tuha district and counties. The proportion of high Human Footprint Index (HFI) increased from 0.66% to 1.32%, while the proportion of medium HFI increased from 3.13% to 7.46%. (3) The expansion of urbanized land has exacerbated habitat degradation. The proportion of high HQ in the EP scenario is higher than that in ND and UD scenario. The results show that the ecological protection scenario is more conducive to the sustainable development of habitat quality in the Tuha region. The results can provide a scientific basis for ecological management and protection in the Tuha area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amidst the challenges posed by global climate change and accelerated urbanization, the structure and distribution of land use are shifting dramatically, exacerbating ecological and land-use conflicts, particularly in China. Effective land resource management requires accurate forecasts of land use and cover change (LUCC). However, the future trajectory of LUCC, influenced by climate change and urbanization, remains uncertain. This study developed an integrated multi-scenario framework by combining system dynamics and patch-generating land use simulation models to predict future LUCC in high-density urban regions under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)–Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results showed the following: (1) From 2020 to 2050, cultivated land, unused land, and water are projected to decrease, while construction land is expected to increase. (2) Future land use patterns exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity across three scenarios. Construction land will expand in all districts of Hangzhou, particularly in the main urban areas. Under the SSP585 scenario, the expansion of construction land is most significant, while it is the least under the SSP126 scenario. (3) Distinct factors drive the expansion of different land use types. The digital elevation model is the predominant factor for the expansion of forest and grassland, contributing 19.25% and 30.76%, respectively. Night light contributes the most to cultivated land and construction land, at 13.94% and 20.35%, respectively. (4) The average land use intensity (LUI) in central urban districts markedly surpasses that in the surrounding suburban areas, with Xiacheng having the highest LUI and Chun'an the lowest. Under the SSP126 scenario, the area with increased LUI is significantly smaller than under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. These findings offer valuable guidance for sustainable planning and built environment management in Hangzhou and similarly situated urban centers worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of rapid urbanization, strengthening the research on the response and dynamic mechanism of ecosystem services to land use is conducive to the optimization of land space and ecological restoration and governance in megacities. Using Hefei City as a case study, we examined specific ecosystem services and analyzed how water yield, habitat quality, carbon storage, and soil conservation changed over time from 2000 to 2020. We utilized spatial information technology and the InVEST model to assess these changes. Additionally, we developed a comprehensive ecological service index (CES) and used Geodetector and regression models to investigate how ecosystem services responded to land use. In addition, we utilized the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS) to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030. This was performed under four different scenarios: natural development (ND), urban development (UD), cultivated land protection (CP), and ecological protection (EP). Furthermore, we assessed the effects of these land-use changes on ecosystem service functions by integrating the PLUS results with InVEST. The findings indicate the following: (1) between 2000 and 2020, farmland consistently remained the dominant land-use type in Hefei City while construction land experienced significant growth. Land-use conversion was prevalent during this period, and each ecological indicator exhibited noticeable geographic variation; (2) during the past 20 years, the comprehensive ecosystem service index (CES) exhibited clear spatial clustering patterns. The different types of land use showed significant quantitative relationships with CES. Specifically, cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and water area had positive correlations, while construction land had a negative correlation. Geodetector analysis revealed that the proportion of ecological land use had the greatest impact on the spatial differentiation of CES, followed by population density; (3) according to the PLUS simulation, the UD scenario results in a significant conversion of cultivated land and grassland into construction land, leading to the greatest decrease in CES. In the ND scenario, the areas with decreasing CES are mostly areas that have been converted from other land types to construction land. In contrast, the EP scenario shows an increase in forest land and grassland, which promotes the enhancement of multiple ecosystem service functions simultaneously. This indicates that the EP scenario is the most favorable for sustainable land-use development. The study investigates the impact of land-use changes on ecosystem services and evaluates the sustainability of regional land use. The findings have both theoretical and practical significance for effectively managing land use and regulating ecological functions in large cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the carbon effect of land use in watersheds is important for mitigating global warming, promoting coordinated emission reduction in different regions within the watersheds, and realizing high-quality development of the watersheds. Although a number of scholars have carried out relevant studies in the past, they mainly focused on carbon emissions, rarely involved the carbon balance formed by carbon sources and sinks, and lacked relevant studies on the development of low-carbon economy sub-region. Based on this, this study takes the Yellow River Basin as an example, explores the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions from land use in counties in the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2020, and predicts the spatial pattern of carbon income and expenditure from land use under natural conditions in 2030 and 2060 using the PLUS model; and then superimposes on the main functional area planning, divides 735 counties in the Yellow River Basin into six low-carbon economic development subregions, and analyzes their economic development The model of their economic development is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the spatial and temporal differentiation of land use carbon balance in the Yellow River Basin has changed greatly over the past 40 years, (2) the spatial distribution pattern of land use carbon balance in the natural context in 2030 and 2060 is more similar to that in 1990, (3) the carbon emission reduction potentials and pattern optimization of the different low-carbon economic development subregions differ greatly, and they have different low-carbon economic development patterns. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis for scientifically and rationally formulating economic policies for low-carbon development in the counties of the Yellow River Basin, and also provide an important reference for related studies in other similar basins or regions in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use profoundly impacts the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Optimizing land use patterns is a vital approach to mitigate climate change and achieve carbon neutrality. Using Shandong Province as a case study, this research evaluates the impacts of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on regional carbon storage and emissions. Employing a coupled PLUS–InVEST–GM(1,1) model, simulations were conducted for scenarios including the natural scenario (NS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), high-speed development scenario (HDS), and low-carbon scenario (LCS), to assess LUCC and changes in carbon storage and emissions from 2030 to 2060 under these scenarios. The findings indicate that due to the expansion of construction land and significant declines in arable and grassland areas, carbon emissions increased by 40,436.44 × 104 t over a 20-year period, while carbon storage decreased by 4881.13 × 104 t. Notably, forests contributed the most to carbon sequestration, while construction land emerged as the primary source of carbon emissions. Simulating four scenarios demonstrates that measures such as protecting cropland, expanding forest, grassland, and aquatic areas, controlling construction land expansion, and promoting intensive development positively affect emission reductions and carbon sequestration in Shandong. These findings underscore the importance of rational planning of land use patterns, which can enhance contributions to carbon neutrality by harmonizing the relationships among cropland protection, ecological conservation, and economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]