Externalities are important elements in the process of rural-urban land conversion. The study analyses the effects of externalities, including various positive and negative effects such as cluster effect, land fragmentation, and pollution to agricultural land, et al. We propose a method by using land conversion probability instead of land price to identify externalities of rural-urban land conversion and present the measurements of externalities. In the empirical study, Probit model is used to estimate the externalities of rural-urban land conversion at the plot scale. Plot characteristics are considered in the model as control variables. Plot characteristic variables include distance from agricultural land to features, land price, land quality and prime farmland control, and externality variables contain externalities from commercial, residential and industrial land in different distances. Results show that: firstly, the distances from parcels to city, to town, to county, to highway entrance and to high level road could elevate the probability of land conversion, but the distances from parcels to county, to low level road and to runoff could decrease the probability. In addition, prime farmlands have lower probability of land conversion than lands in developable area, but land price and soil quality have no significant influence on the probability. Secondly, 1 hm2 agricultural land’s converting to industrial land raises the probability of agricultural land by 0.39%, 0.39% and 0.14% in the buffer area of 0-200, 200-400 and 800-1 600 m, respectively; 1 hm2 agricultural land’s converting to commercial and residential land increases the probability of land conversion by 0.08% in the 800-1 600 m extent. Therefore, the externalities of agricultural land conversion to industrial land are respectively 0.91×104, 0.91×104, 0.33×104 yuan/hm2 in 0-200, 200-400 and 800-1 600 m extend, externalities of agricultural land conversion to commercial and residential land is 0.18×104 yuan/hm2 in 800-1 600 m extent. Since the externality amount is relatively small, incentive of cluster effect is not enough in Jinghai District of Tianjin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]