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During 2010–20, period fertility in England and Wales fell to its lowest recorded level. The aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the decline in period fertility in two dimensions: differentials by the education of a woman's parents (family background) and by a woman's education in relation to that of her parents (intergenerational educational mobility). The analysis finds a substantial decline in fertility in each education group, whether defined by a woman's parents' education alone or by a woman's own education relative to her parents' education. Considering parents' and women's own education together helps differentiate fertility further than analysing either generation's education in isolation. Using these educational mobility groups more clearly shows a narrowing of TFR differentials over the decade, but timing differences persist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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From a population perspective, the trajectories of both the total fertility at successive time periods and the total fertility of successive birth cohorts are derived from the same array of age-specific fertility rates. This analysis uses the assumption of con stant age-specific fertility proportions to derive new explicit relationships between period and cohort fertility. In short, period total fertility is approximately equal to the total fertility of the cohort born a generation earlier, with a modest additive adjustment. A simple relationship also links both period and cohort total fertility to ACF, the average fertility of the child bearing cohorts in a given year. Assuming that fertility levels follow a cubic curve, cohort val ues from the derived relationships are then com pared to observed cohort fertility values for the United States in 1917-2019. Despite substantial violations of the constant proportional fertility assumption, the calculated values deviate from the observed values by an average of only 7-8%. Short-term projections suggest that U.S. cohort fertility will continue to decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A trend towards a reversal of the negative educational gradient in fertility has been detected in some advanced societies, although the end of this inverse relationship is far from being generalized across developed countries. Previous analyses have shown that, for most of the twentieth century, Spain exhibited the steady negative educational gradients in fertility that characterize the low-fertility demographic regimes in Southern Europe. This report presents data collected on the period fertility of Spanish women between 2007 and 2017 and tests for the persistence of educational gradients in their recent reproductive behavior. Using data taken from Spanish administrative registers and standard period indicators of fertility, evidence is offered that proves that a negative educational gradient in fertility continues to exist in the country in accordance with the historical experience of cohorts born during the first decades of the twentieth century. This negative gradient implies significant differences in fertility between educational categories and affects both quantum and tempo. Moreover, the educational differentials in fertility not only persisted during the observed years but probably widened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an overview of trends in fertility of foreign and national women in Greece, Spain, and Italy during the last decade and before the Covid pandemic. It focuses on the fertility of foreigners and compares this with that of ‘nationals’. The main analysis focuses on a period marked, firstly, by the economic recession and stagnation, and then by the recent wave of the ‘refugee crisis’. Foreigner fertility in the three south Mediterranean countries differs significantly from that of nationals, with the former having higher fertility rates and lower mean age at childbearing. However, although foreigners make a large contribution to births, their impact on period fertility (total fertility rate or TFR) is limited. At the same time, although the fertility of both groups decreased during the first years of the recession, foreigner TFRs fell faster in both absolute and relative terms in Italy and Greece. However, after 2014, the foreigner period fertility among the three countries differs as a relative stabilisation is observed in Spain and Italy, while indicators rise in Greece. This divergence is due to the various composition changes in the settled after-2014 foreigners in the three countries and the strong recovery of foreigner births in Greece (as fertility in Greece was much more affected by the recession). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Discrete-time event history analysis (EHA) is the standard approach taken when modelling fertility histories collected in surveys, where the date of birth is often recorded imprecisely. This method is commonly used to investigate the factors associated with the time to a first or subsequent conception or birth. Although there is an emerging trend towards the smooth incorporation of continuous covariates in the broader literature, this is yet to be formally embraced in the context of birth events. Objective: We investigate the formal application of smooth methods implemented via generalized additive models (GAMs) to the analysis of fertility histories. We also determine whether and where GAMs offer a practical improvement over existing approaches. Methods: We fit parity-specific logistic GAMs to data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, learning about the effects of age, period, time since last birth, educational qualification, and country of birth. First, we select the most parsimonious GAMs that fit the data sufficiently well. Then we compare them with corresponding models that use the existing methods of categorical, polynomial, and piecewise linear spline representations in terms of fit, complexity, and substantive insights gained. Results: We find that smooth terms can offer considerable improvements in precision and efficiency, particularly for highly non-linear effects and interactions between continuous variables. Their flexibility enables the detection of important features that are missed or estimated imprecisely by comparator methods. Contribution: Our findings suggest that GAMs are a useful addition to the demographer's toolkit. They are highly relevant for motivating future methodological developments in EHA, both for birth events and more generally.

Background: Fertility in England fell substantially during the past decade. The total fertility rate reached its historically lowest level in 2020. Objective: To improve our understanding of the decline in English fertility by using data on individual women during 2009-2020 from Understanding Society, which is a panel survey of the members of approximately 40,000 households. Methods: Estimation of a model of age and parity-specific birth rates on individual data, including year-effects, and cross-validation of it with external sources from registration data. Translation of the parameter estimates into more easily interpreted concepts such as period parity progression ratios and the total fertility rate (along with the standard errors for each). Results: The decline in first-birth rates appears to be primarily responsible for the decline in the TFR during the past decade, and women with an education below degree level experienced a larger fertility decline. Conclusions: If recent period fertility patterns are sustained, England is embarking on a regime of a high level of childlessness not seen since that among women born in the early 1920s. Contribution: Individual-level panel data is used to estimate a model of parity-specific birth rates, which is cross-validated against registration data and used to provide insights into what lies behind the recent decline in English fertility.

The present article addresses the question of whether there is a link between the spatial patterns of human development and period fertility in the United States at the county level. Using cross-sectional analyses of the relationship between Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and an array of human development indicators (pertaining to three components of the Human Development Index (HDI) – wealth, health, and education), this study sheds light on the relationship between fertility and human development. The analyses were conducted separately for urban, suburban and rural counties. According to the multivariate results, a negative association between selected human development indicators and TFR exists in suburban and rural counties, as well as in the United States as a whole. However, this is not the case for urban counties, where the results were inconclusive. Some indicators (e.g., median income per capita) were found to be positively, and some (e.g., the share of adults with at least bachelor’s degree) negatively, associated with TFR in urban counties. All in all, our results provide evidence of a negative relationship between human development indicators and period fertility in the United States at the county level, a finding which is consistent with the basic tenets of classic demographic transition theory.

Background: Few previous studies have compared how the shape of the fertility curve has evolved in different countries. This study remedies this lack by investigating first- and second-birth fertility curves for 22 highly developed countries. Methods: Using age-specific fertility rate data for first and second births held in the Human Fertility Database, line graphs and contour plots were drawn to illustrate the evolution of the fertility curves of the 1968 to 1980 cohorts of women. Additional period data for the Netherlands and the United States was also used to investigate the more unusual scenarios of these two countries. For Switzerland, the fertility curves for Swiss national and foreign women were investigated. Results: For some countries the transition from an early to a late fertility schedule goes through a phase when the first birth fertility curve is bimodal. In other countries a premodal 'shoulder' is apparent. Conclusions: The existence of a bimodal fertility curve suggests the polarisation of women into one group that remains longer with an early fertility schedule and a second group that moves more rapidly on to a later schedule. For most countries this seems to be a transitional phase. Evidence of foreigner fertility contributing to an early bulge in the fertility curve is demonstrated for Switzerland, suggesting it could be common in other developed countries with high rates of immigration. Contribution: This examination of the trends in the shape of the fertility curves for 22 countries reveals several contrasting progressions, which hopefully will prompt further investigation as to their cause.

The present article addresses the question of whether there is a link between the spatial patterns of human development and period fertility in the United States at the county level. Using cross-sectional analyses of the relationship between Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and an array of human development indicators (pertaining to three components of the Human Development Index (HDI) - wealth, health, and education), this study sheds light on the relationship between fertility and human development. The analyses were conducted separately for urban, suburban and rural counties. According to the multivariate results, a negative association between selected human development indicators and TFR exists in suburban and rural counties, as well as in the United States as a whole. However, this is not the case for urban counties, where the results were inconclusive. Some indicators (e.g., median income per capita) were found to be positively, and some (e.g., the share of adults with at least bachelor's degree) negatively, associated with TFR in urban counties. All in all, our results provide evidence of a negative relationship between human development indicators and period fertility in the United States at the county level, a fi nding which is consistent with the basic tenets of classic demographic transition theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tempo effects in period fertility indicators are widely regarded as a source of bias or distortion. But is this always the case? Whether tempo change results in bias depends, in the view advanced here, on the measure used, the meaning of bias/distortion, and the objective of analysis. Two ways of construing bias in period measures are suggested, and their relevance is discussed in the context of five broad purposes for measuring period fertility: describing and explaining fertility time trends, anticipating future prospects, providing input parameters for formal models, and communicating with nonspecialist audiences. Genuine timing effects are not biasing when period fertility is the explanandum but are distorting when the aim is to estimate cohort fertility. Alternatives to tempo adjustment are available that are a more defensible solution to the issue of timing change. Tempo adjustment could be more fruitfully considered a form of modeling rather than empirical measurement. The measurement of period fertility could be improved by relying more on a statistical approach and less on indicators based on stable assumptions. Future progress will depend on integrating research on measurement with substantive investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines fertility decline in North-Central Namibia in the period 1960-2000. A Scandinavian-type parish-register system, established in the beginning of 20th Century and still in use, provided register-based data for fertility analysis. Fertility decline began in 1980, was rapid in the 1980s, levelled off in the early 1990s, started again in 1994 and continued until the year 2000. Fertility declined in every age group, except among the 15-19 year olds, whose fertility increased. Cohort fertility started to decline among the 1940-44 birth cohort. During the 1980s, fertility decline was associated with increasing age at first marriage and declining marital fertility, connected to e.g. the War of Independence. During the 1990s, an increase in both the use of contraceptives and HIV-prevalence contributed to the fertility decline.

With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980-2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors.)