Marie-Dominique Devignes, Kevin Duarte, Emmanuel Bresso, Jean-Marc Boivin, Claire Dandine Roulland, Patrick Rossignol, Edith Le Floch, Nicolas Girerd, Faiez Zannad, Bruno Guerci, Zohra Lamiral, Jean-François Deleuze, João Pedro Ferreira, Constance Xhaard, Sandra Wagner, Centre d'investigation clinique plurithématique Pierre Drouin [Nancy] (CIC-P), Centre d'investigation clinique [Nancy] (CIC), Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL), Défaillance Cardiovasculaire Aiguë et Chronique (DCAC), Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL), Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists [Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy] (INI-CRCT), Institut Lorrain du Coeur et des Vaisseaux Louis Mathieu [Nancy], French-Clinical Research Infrastructure Network - F-CRIN [Paris] (Cardiovascular & Renal Clinical Trialists - CRCT ), Laboratoire Lorrain de Recherche en Informatique et ses Applications (LORIA), Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de Recherche en Génomique Humaine, Institut de Génomique, CEA, Evry, France, Service d'Endocrinologie - Diabète - Nutrition [CHRU Nancy], Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy), The study was funded by the French National Research Agency Fighting Heart Failure (ANR-15-RHU-0004) and FEDER Lorraine, and all coauthors are supported by the French PIA project 'Lorraine Université d’Excellence' GEENAGE (ANR-15-IDEX-04-LUE) programmes, and the Contrat de Plan Etat Région Lorraine and FEDER IT2MP, ANR-15-RHUS-0004,FIGHT-HF,Combattre l'insuffisance cardiaque(2015), ANR-15-IDEX-0004,LUE,Isite LUE(2015), Computational Algorithms for Protein Structures and Interactions (CAPSID), Inria Nancy - Grand Est, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Department of Complex Systems, Artificial Intelligence & Robotics (LORIA - AIS), Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Laboratoire Lorrain de Recherche en Informatique et ses Applications (LORIA), and Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Objective: Determining the factors associated with new-onset pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is important for improving the current prevention strategies and for a better understanding of the disease. Design: To study the factors (clinical, circulating protein and genetic) associated with new onset pre-diabetes and T2D in an initially healthy (without diabetes) populational familial cohort with a long follow-up (STANISLAS cohort). Methods: A total of 1506 participants attended both the visit 1 and visit 4, separated by ≈20 years. Over 400 proteins, GWAS and genetic associations were studied using models adjusted for potential confounders. Both prospective (V1 to V4) and cross-sectional (V4) analyses were performed. Results: People who developed pre-diabetes (n = 555) and/or T2D (n = 73) were older, had higher BMI, blood pressure, glucose, LDL cholesterol, and lower eGFR. After multivariable selection, PAPP-A (pappalysin-1) was the only circulating protein associated with the onset of both pre-diabetes and T2D with associations persisting at visit 4 (i.e. ≈20 years later). FGF-21 (fibroblast growth factor 21) was a strong prognosticator for incident T2D in the longitudinal analysis, but not in the cross-sectional analysis. The heritability of the circulating PAPP-A was estimated at 44%. In GWAS analysis, the SNP rs634737 was associated with PAPP-A both at V1 and V4. External replication also showed lower levels of PAPP-A in patients with T2D. Conclusions: The risk of developing pre-diabetes and T2D increases with age and with features of the metabolic syndrome. Circulating PAPP-A, which has an important genetic component, was associated with both the development and presence of pre-diabetes and T2D.