1. A 'Hotbed' or a Slow, Painful Burn? Explaining Central Asia's Role in Global Terrorism
- Author
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Tucker, Noah and Lemon, Edward
- Subjects
Online services ,Employment services ,Terrorism ,Terrorist organizations ,Online employment search service ,Military and naval science - Abstract
After a string of terrorist attacks in Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan involving Central Asian citizens, as well as foiled plots and arrests in the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey, Central Asia is once again in the spotlight as a supposed center of terrorism. But this narrative of a constantly growing threat does not fit well with reality. Compared to only a decade ago, when over 4,000 Central Asians traveled to Syria and Iraq to join militant organizations, the levels of recruitment and volume of messaging have decreased substantially. To explain terrorism from Central Asia or measure the potential threat, the authors contend it is important not to overly focus on the narratives in slick recruiting videos that only reach a few hundred people. Given the lack of evidence for a new wave of mass recruiting, the authors suggest that the recent spike of attacks and arrests is the 'long tail' of the Islamic State. After the collapse of the Islamic State's territorial holdings in Syria in 2019, many operatives migrated to Europe, forming sleeper cells, some of which have been disrupted in the past year. Mobilization of Central Asians also remains primarily an issue tied to migration. With the notable exception of Kazakhstan where internal migration and displacement play key roles, Central Asian participation in terrorist groups remains primarily an issue that manifests itself outside the region. Instead of focusing primarily on online recruiting, the authors argue one should focus on the factors that led to mobilization to Syria and Iraq a decade ago and that have been exacerbated in recent years, especially in Tajikistan, including crackdowns on religion, corrupt ineffective governance, high levels of migration, and well-established terror networks that are holdovers from the peak of the Islamic State., After a string of terrorist attacks in Russia, (1) Iran, (2) and Afghanistan (3) involving Central Asian citizens, as well as foiled plots and arrests in the United States, (4) [...]
- Published
- 2024