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In this paper, I set out to present the results of the analysis of the energy sector of the Republic of Moldova, and particularly the field of electricity, natural gas and petroleum products. Although I do not claim exclusivity in terms of the aspects researched through this paper, I consider that these aspects have been insufficiently analyzed over time, which is why I express my hope that the conclusions of the undersigned presented in this paper will bring a certain level of usefulness both theoretically and, as well as practice. In this sense, the scientific novelty and originality of the obtained results is embodied in the making of a clear opinion regarding the development of future strategies regarding the sustainability of the energy sector

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The concept of wholesale energy products (WEP) bears both complexity and synthetic nature of a new phenomenon. The complexity partly stems from the historically inherited specialization of technologies, which can now be combined into hybrid energy plants or energy hubs. WEP complexity causes a few specialized approaches and carve-outs with respect of every constituent commodity and service, however, it can be mitigated by policies promoting the universality of energy plants for rapid response to the changes in supply and demand. Physics of different substances that constitute WEP, such as natural gas, LNG, hydrogen, electricity, and their production, transportation, and storage infrastructure will remain a factor of distinction for the contractual and regulatory approach anytime soon. However, the impact of these differences has been and will be decreasing with hybridization of energy plants and popularization of the energy hubs that operate on different wholesale markets and, potentially, retail markets, too. Introduction of WEP effectively assumed that an energy hub becomes a new normal of energy flexibility on the market, of course, subject to further technology development, a high efficiency in converting power electrons to other forms of energy (methane and hydrogen molecules, for example) and vice versa. When (and if) such new normality happens, a further potential for uniform market rules is being realized - as was demonstrated in 2024 by expansion of the wholesale energy product definition in REMIT II. While LNG and hydrogen as well as their infrastructure are relatively new additions with some specifics to be ironed out, WEP can also be expected to expand further. The concept of a wholesale energy product had since 2011 led to the merger of both physical and financial instruments, so that many of them, especially physical products are subject to a double supervision; new contract forms and new data exchange standards had to be developed to optimize investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses the quantile connectedness model to study the transmission mechanism between China and the international natural gas market from August 2017 to February 2024. The time-varying spillover effects under extreme market conditions. The empirical results emphasize the following key points: (a) China mainly acts as an information receiver in the overall market. (b) The spillover effect of the European natural gas market is significantly stronger during the extreme downturn, indicating that the spillover effect is asymmetric. (c) The natural gas futures market plays a central role in market dynamics that affect upward return shocks. (d) System connectivity is highly sensitive to market conditions and increases significantly under extreme market conditions. According to the research results, we should make more efforts to promote the liberalization and marketization of the domestic natural gas market, and strive to improve the bargaining power in the international market to reduce the import premium level. Improve energy efficiency and reduce China 's dependence on natural gas imports; from the perspective of the global natural gas market, risk contagion between markets should be alleviated under different market conditions and a differentiated risk early warning mechanism should be established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the recent debate in energy economics on the importance of oil price indexation versus shale gases suggest that big data can be used in predictive analysis in energy economics, little is known particularly in the context of shale gas and oil price interlinkages. Grounding our investigations in such directions we investigate in this paper the relationship between gas and crude oil markets and the impact US shale gas by employing time-varying causality method by Shi et al. (J Time Ser Anal 39(6):966–987, 2018; J Financ Econom 18(1):158–180, 2020) and cross-quantilogram correlation approach by Han et al. (J Econom 193(1):251–270, 2016). In particular, as a representative of the crude oil market, we use OPEC oil; WTI; Crude oil Oman; Crude oil Dubai while for the gas market, we use natural gas prices of UK NBP (National Balancing Point), NYMEX HH (Henry Hub) and US shale gas prices. Data period is from 11th January 2013 to 8th September 2020. We find significant negative spillovers from crude oil markets to natural gas markets particularly during moderate market conditions. The results suggest crucial implications in energy economics literature, to diversify assets to hedge against risks. We further find strong causality association between oil markets, natural gas markets and further oil markets and shale gas markets. Our findings describe that aftermath of the shale-gas boom the predictability nexus between oil and natural gas increased. Once we condition for shale gas the significant negative spill overs from oil markets to natural gas markets increases in the long-run. We suggest important policy prescriptions which have interconnected market repercussions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining transportation routes is of great importance for advancing China-Russian gas cooperation, which has been hanging in the balance. This paper employs a general equilibrium model to assess the congestion cost of diversified gas transmission schemes between China and Russia on domestic long-distance pipelines, which addresses the inherent limitations of exclusively considering transport impacts in the decision-making process. Findings reveal a notable decrease in pipeline congestion incidents for the route integrated with the Shaan-Jing system, thus lending empirical credence to the feasibility of the proposed scenario involving Mongolia. In addition, key routes are defined in this paper based on congestion costs, which emphasize the challenges posed by bilateral gas cooperation to China's long-distance natural gas pipeline network, necessitating a strategic focus on critical pipelines as the top priority of pipeline optimization efforts in the future. This paper provides valuable insights into planning the second China-Russia gas pipeline and the decision-making process for the future development of long-distance pipeline infrastructure.

The relevance of the study is justified by the importance of capturing and assessing the financial contagion transmission in crisis for the purposes of identifying risks in the financial market, as well as for the industrial sector management at the micro and macro levels. The article applies such an assessment to the largest industrial enterprises in Germany. The object of study choice is due to the fact that Germany, on the one hand, has a highly developed industrial sector and, on the other hand, was the most severely affected by the global energy crisis caused by political disagreements at the international level. The natural gas market has been chosen as a transmitter of contagion and German industrial companies as a receiver. A brief theoretical review considers the peculiarities of the functioning of the industrial sector of the German economy during the global energy crisis. The dependence of industrial production on natural gas imports has been revealed. The practical section captures financial contagion using the following tests: Forbes-Rigobon, distributional coasymmetry, distributional cocurtosis, and covolatility. A ranking of the industries contagion in Germany has been constructed. It has been found that most of the investigated companies are exposed to contagion from the gas market to a greater or lesser extent. Only three companies showed absolute resistance to contagion: Enbw Energie Baden Wuerttemberg AG, Stemmer Imaging AG, and OHB SE. The light industry, metals and mining were the most affected to the financial contagion, while the construction industry was the least affected.

This study introduces a theoretical framework for the Turkish natural gas market based on the principles of game theory and industrial organization. It investigates the effects of the legal and ownership unbundling on consumer surplus, social welfare, and competition. The model considers a mixed oligopoly with a transmission system operator (TSO), a state-owned incumbent, and a private firm. The state-owned incumbent is assumed to maximize consumer surplus and its own profit, while the private firm is assumed to be profit-maximizing. Additionally, the state-owned incumbent is assumed to be less efficient than the private firm. The game consists of three stages. In the first two stages, the state-owned incumbent and the private firm sequentially choose contract sizes in the upstream market. In the last stage, a contract size-restricted Cournot game is played. The findings of the study suggest that legal unbundling appears to offer greater advantages for consumer surplus and social welfare compared to ownership unbundling, particularly when considering key factors such as third-party access, non-tariff discrimination, and import liberalization. The results indicate that adopting the role of a Stackelberg follower by the state-owned incumbent in the upstream market is advantageous in terms of consumer surplus, social welfare, and competition under both unbundling approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a systematic workflow for estimating hydrogen storage capacity for a smooth energy transition from natural gas market to hydrogen market to achieve net-zero emissions. The workflow establishes maximum and minimum thresholds for hydrogen storage and considers appropriate storage techniques, including underground or surface facilities. The technique assesses environmental footprint of each storage technique and evaluates associated emission reductions. We apply this workflow to energy market in Alberta and project minimum and maximum storage thresholds of 0.28 and 5 megatonne/year (Mt/year) by 2050. Under three distinct storage scenarios, the storage capacity necessitates 128 salt caverns, 10 million compressed gas tanks, or 78,150 cryogenic liquefied tanks. Salt cavern storage emerges as a promising choice owing to its relatively lower emissions of 0.16 MtCO 2 e/year and a land footprint of 2.56 km2. The net emission reduction achieved is 1.47 MtCO 2 e/year, equivalent to 0.8% of Canada's target emission reduction of 190 MtCO 2 e/year by 2050. • A workflow is developed to forecast required hydrogen storage capacity in Alberta. • Salt caverns emerge as a reliable and practical technique for large-scale hydrogen storage. • The workflow projects the required number of salt caverns for hydrogen storage. • Supplying stored hydrogen to market reduces 1.5 megatonne/year of GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I set out to present the results of the analysis of the energy sector of the Republic of Moldova, and particularly the field of electricity, natural gas and petroleum products. Although I do not claim exclusivity in terms of the aspects researched through this paper, I consider that these aspects have been insufficiently analyzed over time, which is why I express my hope that the conclusions of the undersigned presented in this paper will bring a certain level of usefulness both theoretically and, as well as practice. In this sense, the scientific novelty and originality of the obtained results is embodied in the making of a clear opinion regarding the development of future strategies regarding the sustainability of the energy sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyzes the real-time crisis in the EU natural gas market. It is shown that the crisis began in mid-2021, mainly due to omissions by regulators who set the energy transition too fast and made a mistake when assessing liquidity in the physical gas market. By refusing to conclude long-term contracts for the import of natural gas and opting for the spot market, the EU has made itself dependent on unpredictable price fluctuations for raw materials. The EU seeks at all costs to build a spot market for natural gas, the price of which is determined by the current balance of supply and demand. This goal was set because, within the framework of the climate and energy strategy of the European Union, the gas market is increasingly subordinated to servicing the electricity market. Since the spring of 2022, the development of the EU gas market has moved into a system of coordinates set by political interests and energy security considerations. The main long-term structural shifts in the European gas market were: firstly, an accelerated reorientation to LNG imports; secondly, the strengthening of the downward trend in demand; thirdly, the transition of gas prices to a higher level. Higher gas prices push up electricity prices, allowing governments to mobilize the additional financial resources needed to accelerate the green and energy transition. The forced restructuring of the European gas market and the electricity market launched the process of deindustrialization of the industrial core of the EU. The threat of deindustrialization is forcing EU member states to look for ways of non-market support for national industry, which, in principle, can push centrifugal tendencies in the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather has been shown to affect natural gas markets, but there is limited research on the strength and manner in which weather affects predictions of natural gas volatility. In this study, six weather indicators are used as exogenous variables, and seasonal‐trend decomposition‐generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity‐Weather (STL‐GARCH‐W) and STL‐GJR‐GARCH‐W models are constructed to explore the effect of weather on global natural gas market. The empirical findings indicate that temperature and precipitation have a notable positive effect on natural gas, while solar radiation has a prominent negative effect. Furthermore, the STL‐GARCH‐W model outperform the STL‐GJR‐GARCH‐W model and the benchmark STL‐GARCH model when temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation are considered. In addition, the January effect has been shown to significantly influence natural gas price volatility. Finally, most parameters in both models are of statistical significance, demonstrating that both models accurately forecast natural gas volatility and emphasizing the importance of weather indicators for modelling natural gas price volatility. Our study provides new insights for energy market investors and policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Article 42 of the Constitution of Ukraine establishes the principles of preventing abuse of a monopoly position in the market and unfair competition in economic activity. Manipulation of the Energy Market – an act that violates the procedure for state regulation of the electric energy market and the natural gas market approved by the current legislation – poses an increased public danger. The purpose of the study is to investigate objective signs of manipulation in the energy market as part of a criminal offence under Article 222-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. Within the framework of the study, a complex of scientific methods was applied: dialectical, hermeneutical, systemic, formal logical, generalisation, system and structural, method of ascent from the abstract to the concrete, analysis, and synthesis. It is proved that the object of manipulation in the energy market is covered by public relations that control the procedure for state regulation of the electric energy market and the natural gas market approved by the current legislation – the implementation by the state of comprehensive measures to manage the demand, prices, and volumes of the wholesale energy market, prevent abuse and violations in this area. The criminal legal content of the concept of “manipulation” is determined by the deliberate activity of a person(s) who violate the conditions of functioning of the wholesale energy market, is carried out by performing a set of illegal actions, the purpose of which is to obtain financial benefits for themselves and third parties, by changing the price of a financial asset. The essence of manipulation of the wholesale energy market is highlighted through its inherent features, which indicate a violation of the conditions necessary for making transactions on the wholesale energy market and a deviation of the asset price from the real market price in the right direction for manipulators (the presence of a process of overstating (underestimating) the total price of the contract, which leads to the loss of its market status). The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that the analysis carried out is of auxiliary importance for law enforcement practice in solving issues related to the legal qualification of manipulation in the energy market

Abstract Underground gas storage (UGS) is an important part of the natural gas industry. Its peaking characteristics and storage capacity are critical to national energy supply and energy security. Compared with the mature gas market in Europe, the construction of UGSs in China faces many challenges. This study is expected to provide references for China UGS through a detailed analysis and calculations of the European natural gas market and underground storage. First, the current status and development of the European gas market were summarized. And the situation of primary energy structure, gas utilization, and UGSs construction was compared between the EU and China. Second, the working gas volume of UGSs in Europe was analyzed from the perspective of its relationship with total consumption and peak‐shaving volume. Finally, the simulation and prediction of the working curve of the energy storage facilities and the reasonable ratio of the energy storage to load were solved by the numerical fitting method. Meanwhile, the recommendations for China's natural gas market and UGSs were provided. It is appropriate to set the planning target of China UGS capacity to load at 5% of total consumption and the actual peaking gas volume will be 14.4 billion cubic meters by 2030.

This study investigates the correlation between the natural gas market, uncertainty, and the stock market in China. The research uses the BK model and considers both high- and low-frequency bands. According to the dynamic spillover indices and connectedness network, natural gas market, uncertainty, and stock market spillover influences are concentrated in the high-frequency band within 12 trading weeks and minor in the low-frequency band. The natural gas market receives information in the return model. In contrast, the uncertainty of the financial and energy market is the primary transmitter and substantially impacts the natural gas market return. In the volatility model, the natural gas market remains the information receiver but is affected by financial market uncertainty and stock market volatility. During the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, results indicate that financial market uncertainty, energy market uncertainty, and stock market volatility exerted a substantial influence on the natural gas market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study empirically investigates the asymmetric effects of spot (future) prices and storage on rig counts in the US natural gas and crude oil markets from January 1986 to May 2020. It adopts the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and establishes a flexible and efficient framework that measures the effects of positive and negative shocks in each of these variables on rig counts while modeling possible asymmetries in both the short and long term. For the natural gas market, the results reveal significant long-term asymmetric effects of spot (future) gas prices and storage on gas rigs. The positive and statistically significant cumulative effect of changes in natural gas storage suggests that larger natural gas storage has caused changes in the use of natural gas drilling rigs. For the crude oil market, we find significant short-term asymmetric effects of spot (future) gas prices and oil stocks on oil rigs. Furthermore, in addition to the optimal price and level of storage, the cost, as proxied by the interest rate, is a crucial determinant in rig drilling decision-making in the energy sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Underground gas storage (UGS) is an important part of the natural gas industry. Its peaking characteristics and storage capacity are critical to national energy supply and energy security. Compared with the mature gas market in Europe, the construction of UGSs in China faces many challenges. This study is expected to provide references for China UGS through a detailed analysis and calculations of the European natural gas market and underground storage. First, the current status and development of the European gas market were summarized. And the situation of primary energy structure, gas utilization, and UGSs construction was compared between the EU and China. Second, the working gas volume of UGSs in Europe was analyzed from the perspective of its relationship with total consumption and peak‐shaving volume. Finally, the simulation and prediction of the working curve of the energy storage facilities and the reasonable ratio of the energy storage to load were solved by the numerical fitting method. Meanwhile, the recommendations for China's natural gas market and UGSs were provided. It is appropriate to set the planning target of China UGS capacity to load at 5% of total consumption and the actual peaking gas volume will be 14.4 billion cubic meters by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Russia–Ukraine conflict has imposed a profound impact on the global energy market and geopolitics, and also brings about a major challenge to China's energy security. In the winter of 2022, it is inevitable for Europe to have stronger access to global LNG, and its price will be at high price. Thus, the LNG import of China will be decreased, thus bringing severe challenges to supply guarantee in the winter, especially during the peak months of this winter. Due to the reduction of Russian oil and gas imports by Europe, a considerable volume of the working gas of Russia's gas storage(1 100×108 m3) becomes useless. Therefore, the feasibility of utilizing the working gas of Russia's gas storage for peak sheaving of China's gas supply market was discussed under the condition of obviously insufficient capacity of China's gas storage. Hence, three approaches were proposed, including(1) gas exchanging by Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline,(2) LNG interchange in Russia, and(3) increasing gas transportation capacity of China–Russia Eastern Gas Pipeline to realize operation at full load. Meanwhile,requirement was put forward for Russia to supply gas supply with the quality in strict accordance with the contract. Generally,the relevant recommendations could provide reference for the supply guarantee in the winter of 2022.

The coronavirus pandemic caused a crisis in industrial economies, enforcing public concern. The first case of the infection in Europe occurred in Italy. Nowadays, in the field of European gas infrastructure, Italy stands as one of the leading countries transporting gaseous fuel to end users. This article provides an overview of the distribution of natural gas flows in the Italian gas infrastructure in the face of the coronavirus outspread in the country and GAZPROM’s natural gas supply restrictions for European countries. This article presents, using the ARIMA method, a forecast of natural gas consumption of Italian consumers measured up to 2024.

The functioning of Ukrainian national gas sector is directly dependent on the processes of fuel and energy resources consumption and trends in domestic and foreign markets. Nowadays, the majority of approaches and methods are formed with the obligatory use of expert assessment methods, which, in its turn, predetermines relatively subjective judgments and results. In the process of conducting a comprehensive analysis of financial and economic indicators and those reflecting the results of economic activity of gas distribution network operators functioning in the western region of Ukraine, the following approaches have been used in our study with the involvement of: Altman's two-factor model; Altman's five-factor model; Lis's bankruptcy prediction model; Richard Taffler's model; Beaver's coefficient; Tereshchenko's model and Matviychuk's model; however, the existing models for diagnosing bankruptcy of enterprises are characterized by ambiguity; as for example, if Lis's model indicates a low bankruptcy level, then other models prove the opposite situation; domestic diagnostic models need to be improved, as they were developed in the early 2000s and disregard current trends in functioning of enterprises. Since the existing models for diagnosing the bankruptcy of enterprises are characterized by ambiguity, the authors proposed and approbate their own approach to determining the level of competitiveness of gas distribution network operators. A feature of the proposed methodology is taking into account modern trends in the functioning of enterprises, taking into account the peculiarities of the activities of gas distribution network operators, and the market stage. A tangible advantage of this approach is the ability to identify the presence or likelihood of critical events at an early stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because reliance on gas for electricity generation rises over time, the natural gas and electricity markets are highly connected. However, both of them are susceptible to various risk factors that endanger energy security. The intricate interactions among multiple risks and between the two markets render risk assessment more challenging than for individual markets. Taking a systematic perspective, this study first undertook a thorough analysis of the evolution mechanism that indicated the key risk factors and dual interactions, with real-world illustrative examples. Subsequently, a system dynamics model was constructed for understanding the causal feedback structures embedded in the operation of a coupled natural gas–electricity market in the face of risks. Quantitative experiments were conducted by using data from China's Energy Statistical Yearbook, China's Statistical Yearbook and other reliable sources to assess the effects of individual risks, depict the evolutionary behavior of coupled markets and compare the risk response strategies. The findings revealed the evolution of dominant risk factors and the aggregated effects of multiple risks in multiple markets, suggesting the need to comprehensively monitor dynamic risks. Moreover, risk factors can propagate from one market to another via interactions, yet it depends on multiple aspects such as the severity of the risk and the intensity of the interactions. Demand compression and emergency natural gas supply behave differently throughout the market's recovery, necessitating a balance between short-term and long-term risk response strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus pandemic caused a crisis in industrial economies, enforcing public concern. The first case of the infection in Europe occurred in Italy. Nowadays, in the field of European gas infrastructure, Italy stands as one of the leading countries transporting gaseous fuel to end users. This article provides an overview of the distribution of natural gas flows in the Italian gas infrastructure in the face of the coronavirus outspread in the country and GAZPROM's natural gas supply restrictions for European countries. This article presents, using the ARIMA method, a forecast of natural gas consumption of Italian consumers measured up to 2024. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining transportation routes is of great importance for advancing China-Russian gas cooperation, which has been hanging in the balance. This paper employs a general equilibrium model to assess the congestion cost of diversified gas transmission schemes between China and Russia on domestic long-distance pipelines, which addresses the inherent limitations of exclusively considering transport impacts in the decision-making process. Findings reveal a notable decrease in pipeline congestion incidents for the route integrated with the Shaan-Jing system, thus lending empirical credence to the feasibility of the proposed scenario involving Mongolia. In addition, key routes are defined in this paper based on congestion costs, which emphasize the challenges posed by bilateral gas cooperation to China's long-distance natural gas pipeline network, necessitating a strategic focus on critical pipelines as the top priority of pipeline optimization efforts in the future. This paper provides valuable insights into planning the second China-Russia gas pipeline and the decision-making process for the future development of long-distance pipeline infrastructure. • The impacts of gas transportation plans on domestic long-distance pipelines are discussed. • Three potential scenarios are proposed based on different gas transportation plan. • A general equilibrium model is applied and the congested cost is the key indicator. • The transportation plan through Mongolia is considered as the most reasonable plan. • Partial pipelines are identified as the crucial optimization routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of short-term and spot trade of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the natural gas market is gradually evolving from regionalization to globalization. At the same time, the existence and rationality of long-term LNG contracts have become increasingly controversial. To explore the value of long-term LNG contracts in the process of natural gas market globalization, this article constructs a two-stage game model and applies China’s LNG trade data in 2018 to the model. The study shows that, compared with complete import of short-term LNG, even if the long-term LNG contracts do not have price advantages, importing an appropriate amount of long-term LNG may help to increase the total LNG imports, reduce the price of LNG, and thus improve import benefits. Besides, a moderate amount of long-term LNG contracts is conducive to the establishment of a stable and flexible natural gas supply system and the security of natural gas imports. Therefore, natural gas importers should not underestimate or even ignore the value of long-term LNG contracts while actively participating in short-term and spot trade of natural gas.

This study empirically investigates the asymmetric effects of spot (future) prices and storage on rig counts in the US natural gas and crude oil markets from January 1986 to May 2020. It adopts the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and establishes a flexible and efficient framework that measures the effects of positive and negative shocks in each of these variables on rig counts while modeling possible asymmetries in both the short and long term. For the natural gas market, the results reveal significant long-term asymmetric effects of spot (future) gas prices and storage on gas rigs. The positive and statistically significant cumulative effect of changes in natural gas storage suggests that larger natural gas storage has caused changes in the use of natural gas drilling rigs. For the crude oil market, we find significant short-term asymmetric effects of spot (future) gas prices and oil stocks on oil rigs. Furthermore, in addition to the optimal price and level of storage, the cost, as proxied by the interest rate, is a crucial determinant in rig drilling decision-making in the energy sector.

In response to increasing environmental deterioration, the vigorous development of the integrated energy system is an important measure to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. In order to ensure that the system takes into account the economic operation under the premise of low carbon and environmental protection, this paper proposes a bi-level optimal low-carbon economic operation model for the regional integrated energy system (RIES). At the upper level, the objective of the RIES is economic optimization, which contains the carbon emission cost so that the system would change its preference for high-carbon energy to limit the carbon emission of the system. At the lower level, an electricity and natural gas pricing model is established, and a carbon emission flow (CEF) model is used to calculate the price of carbon emissions. This proposed bi-level optimization model is converted to a single-level mathematical problem with KKT (Karush–Kuhn–Tucker) conditions for efficient calculation. The proposed optimal model is tested on the five-bus power system and seven-node natural gas system, and numerical results indicate the optimal operating model with this proposed carbon pricing method can effectively reduce carbon emissions and minimize the total operating cost of RIES.

The increasing penetration of renewables tends to demand more flexibility from gas-fired units to maintain system reliability, which significantly strengthens the interdependency between the electricity and the natural gas markets. To this end, intra-day gas market trading may be necessary, and a completely deregulated natural gas market may emerge in the future. As the interdependency between the electricity and the natural gas markets keeps growing, this paper proposes a bi-level strategic bidding model to study the market behaviors of the gas-fired unit, which simultaneously acts as a strategic power producer in the electricity market and a strategic gas buyer in the natural gas market. The upper-level problem maximizes the profit of the gas-fired unit, and the two lower-level problems respectively model the market-clearings of the electricity and the natural gas markets. The upper and lower levels interact through locational marginal prices of electricity and natural gas. The proposed bi-level optimization model is converted to a mathematical problem with equilibrium constraint (MPEC). Then it is transformed into a mixed-integer second-order-cone programming (MISOCP) for efficient calculation. Numerical results demonstrate the proposed methodology is capable of mimicking the market-clearing process and strategic behaviors of the gas-fired unit in the interdependent energy markets effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing number of major natural gas markets in the world have adopted the gas-on-gas competition, or are in the phase of transition to this price formation mechanism. In this situation, China has also started to reform the pricing mechanism by establishing gas trading centers in Shanghai and Chongqing, providing platforms for sellers and buyers to complete the competition-based transactions, marking a transition from oil index pricing to gas-on-gas competition pricing. In order to carry out research on China’s gas market based on gas-on-gas competition trading mechanism, this paper builds a natural gas trading model based on cooperative game theory, discusses the key parameter in the models, taking into account of the representative issues of China’s gas market in transformation. Also, this paper designs scenarios based on Jiangsu Province, a relatively well-established gas trading market in China, and explores the impact of each issue on the market by using the comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis. This study concludes that establishing the gas-on-gas competition model corresponds to the current gas market development in China. In addition, the market participants need to optimize the contract modes of gas supply, reduce gas supply cost and improve the price affordability, in order to maximize the cooperation benefits in gas market, increase the trading volume, promotes the development and maturation of China’s gas market.

The centrality and importance of each province and each gas source varies greatly in the national natural gas market. In order to demonstrate the connection between the natural gas markets in various provinces, as well as the importance and centrality of each province and each gas source, the Social Network Analysis (SNA) was introduced to deeply analyze the changes of centrality, factions and relevancy of China's natural gas market from 2010 to 2018 (compared with 2005), the evolution of China's natural gas market network and the impact of the completion of China-Russia Eastern Gas Pipeline on China's natural gas market. The following suggestions were put forward: increasing the natural gas storage and production in provinces except Xinjiang and Shaanxi to avoid over-concentration of supply, accelerating the construction of large-scale trunk gas pipelines and "interconnection" projects to increase market connectivity between northeast, northwest and other regions and strengthening the planning and construction of gas pipelines flowing from "north to south" to reinforce the importance and connectivity of South and Central China in China's natural gas network. The analysis results can provide reference suggestions for the selection of key areas for natural gas market cultivation and longdistance pipeline construction in China in the future.

The functioning of Ukrainian national gas sector is directly dependent on the processes of fuel and energy resources consumption and trends in domestic and foreign markets. Nowadays, the majority of approaches and methods are formed with the obligatory use of expert assessment methods, which, in its turn, predetermines relatively subjective judgments and results. In the process of conducting a comprehensive analysis of financial and economic indicators and those reflecting the results of economic activity of gas distribution network operators functioning in the western region of Ukraine, the following approaches have been used in our study with the involvement of: Altman’s two-factor model; Altman’s five-factor model; Lis’s bankruptcy prediction model; Richard Taffler’s model; Beaver’s coefficient; Tereshchenko’s model and Matviychuk’s model; however, the existing models for diagnosing bankruptcy of enterprises are characterized by ambiguity; as for example, if Lis’s model indicates a low bankruptcy level, then other models prove the opposite situation; domestic diagnostic models need to be improved, as they were developed in the early 2000s and disregard current trends in functioning of enterprises. Since the existing models for diagnosing the bankruptcy of enterprises are characterized by ambiguity, the authors proposed and approbate their own approach to determining the level of competitiveness of gas distribution network operators. A feature of the proposed methodology is taking into account modern trends in the functioning of enterprises, taking into account the peculiarities of the activities of gas distribution network operators, and the market stage. A tangible advantage of this approach is the ability to identify the presence or likelihood of critical events at an early stage.

Because reliance on gas for electricity generation rises over time, the natural gas and electricity markets are highly connected. However, both of them are susceptible to various risk factors that endanger energy security. The intricate interactions among multiple risks and between the two markets render risk assessment more challenging than for individual markets. Taking a systematic perspective, this study first undertook a thorough analysis of the evolution mechanism that indicated the key risk factors and dual interactions, with real-world illustrative examples. Subsequently, a system dynamics model was constructed for understanding the causal feedback structures embedded in the operation of a coupled natural gas–electricity market in the face of risks. Quantitative experiments were conducted by using data from China’s Energy Statistical Yearbook, China’s Statistical Yearbook and other reliable sources to assess the effects of individual risks, depict the evolutionary behavior of coupled markets and compare the risk response strategies. The findings revealed the evolution of dominant risk factors and the aggregated effects of multiple risks in multiple markets, suggesting the need to comprehensively monitor dynamic risks. Moreover, risk factors can propagate from one market to another via interactions, yet it depends on multiple aspects such as the severity of the risk and the intensity of the interactions. Demand compression and emergency natural gas supply behave differently throughout the market’s recovery, necessitating a balance between short-term and long-term risk response strategies.

Current electricity and natural gas markets operate with deterministic description of uncertain supply, and in a temporally and sectorally decoupled way. This practice in energy systems is being challenged by the increasing integration of stochastic renewable energy sources. There is a growing need for exchanging operational flexibility among energy sectors, which requires to improve the sectoral coordination between electricity and natural gas markets. In addition, the dispatch of flexible units in both sectors needs to be made in a more uncertainty-aware manner, requiring to strengthen the temporal coordination between day-ahead and real-time energy markets. We explore the use of existing financial instruments in the form of virtual bidding (VB) as a market-based solution to enhance both sectoral and temporal coordination in energy markets. It is established in the literature that VB by purely financial players is able to enhance the temporal coordination between deterministic day-ahead and real-time markets. By developing various stochastic equilibrium and optimization models, we show that VB by physical players, i.e., gas-fired power plants, at the interface of power and natural gas systems is of great potential to improve not only the temporal coordination between deterministic day-ahead and real-time markets, but also the sectoral coordination between deterministic electricity and natural gas markets. We exploit a fully stochastic co-optimization model as an ideal benchmark, and numerically illustrate the benefits of VB for increasing the overall market efficiency in terms of reduced expected operational cost of the entire energy system. We eventually show that flexible resources in both electricity and natural gas markets are dispatched more efficiently in the day-ahead stage when VB exists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The Coronavirus (COVID‐19) outbreak hit the global economy like a tsunami. Every aspect of human society, including the energy industry and market, is affected by this pandemic. The pandemic has affected prices, demand, supply, investment, and several other aspects of the energy sector, including the oil and gas industry. This article is aimed to analyze the impacts of COVID‐19 on the oil and gas industry and give a perspective of the post‐COVID‐19 oil and gas market. Results of this article show that COVID‐19 impacts the oil and gas industry. The short‐term impact is nearly 25% decrease in petroleum consumption, slowly recovering to its former amount and even growing more. The long‐term impacts are the 30% to 40% decrease in the CAPEX and R&D investments over the oil and gas market, which is a regional scale in the United States, caused oil exploitation projects to decrease from more than 800 in 2019 to 265 in 2021. And it is predicted to reduce the competitiveness of oil and gas vs other energy carriers such as ever price‐decreasing renewable energies. Thus, the oil and gas industry has to change rapidly before losing a substantial energy market share. Finally, this article discusses acknowledging oil and gas trade as a part of World trade organization (WTO/ECT) regulations. And considering it a general energy commodity. An act that reduces the freedom of action of oil‐exporting governments and great oil cartels and protects their interests in a globalizing competitive energy market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The natural gas seems to be an attractive supplement to the renewable energy sources in energy transition towards low carbon emissions. Given its flexibility to transmit and store, the natural gas offers a diversity of the renewables. Understanding the formation of natural gas prices is crucial for evaluating the costs of energy transition, in particular the return to investment into natural gas infrastructure. Research Design & Methods: In order to study the natural gas prices dynamics in Poland, I developed a Vector Error Correction model (VECM) for a joint determination with prices in the USA and in Europe. The VECM setup made it possible to analyse the interactions among non-stationary prices as well as investigate how disturbances specific to the discussed markets pass on within the system. Findings: By exploring impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions, I demonstrate that the European natural gas prices are not affected by shocks in the American gas market, as they are determined solely by the shocks specific to the European natural gas market. Additionally, the natural gas prices in Poland are highly correlated with, and responsive to, other European countries’ prices. The results go in line with the hypothesis of the existence of a common, integrated European natural gas market. Implications / Recommendations: In the context of energy transition, the return to investment within natural gas infrastructure can only be forecast given the predicted prices. The appropriate proportion of alternative energy sources in the energy mix can be achieved only after examining this dynamics and the differences in prices of alternative energy commodities. Hence, the feasibility of predicting natural gas prices should always be considered at the early stages of any energy transition policy. Contribution / Value Added: The results add to the discussion on the role of natural gas in energy transition. They reveal how gas prices on the main markets have fluctuated over the recent years as well as they link the prices in Poland to natural gas prices abroad. The findings fill the gap in the literature, which so far has been focused mainly in the American market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A common natural gas market in the Baltic region, which is in operation since 1 January 2020, means a single entry–exit tariff system for the natural gas transmission among Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and a common Latvian–Estonian balancing zone. Finland joined the market with a separate balancing zone, certain rules, contracts, invoices and billing, with a decision for full integration to be taken not earlier than in 2022. Lithuania is not currently the common market participant, because it is not ready to join it with such revenue splitting conditions as Finland, Estonia and Latvia. But still common entry–exit tariff zone countries are actively working to find a viable solution for market expansion. Lithuania and other neighbouring Member States of the European Union (hereinafter – the EU), first and foremost, Poland, are welcome to join. The creation of an integrated regional natural gas market in the Baltics in the long term will stimulate the interest of traders in the region, strengthen security of supply and improve market liquidity. Increased market competition, predictable prices in the long term, transparent tariffs, digital communication and customer-oriented business strategies are just a small part of benefits that will inevitably develop with time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article addresses aspects of competition in the European gas market and more precisely analyzes the abuse of Gazprom's dominant position by preventing the free flow of gas among the Member States of the European Union and by its unfair prices. In line with the European principle of freedom of movement for goods, services, persons and capital, the European Commission adopted three directives, approved in 1998, 2003 and 2009, by introducing competition on a market which had been closed down until then. From a macroeconomic perspective, there has been significant theoretical and empirical evidence suggesting that the liberalization of the European gas market has positive effects on the energy industry in terms of lower prices and security of supply. But the competition law in the European energy sector is not always properly applied and consumers are discouraged in terms of implementing the legislative and regulatory framework. In accordance with art. 102 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU), EU countries importing natural gas must benefit from transparent, fair pricing contracts. However, in some cases, abusive practices have been used for gas importers in central and Eastern Europe.

Copyright of Economy & Forecasting / Ekonomìka ì Prognozuvannâ is the property of Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, Institute for Economic Forecasting and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Uluslararasi Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi is the property of Karadeniz Technical University, Depertmant of Economics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper considers the implications of Western economic sanctions on Russia's natural gas sector. Despite exposures to increased risk to the gas industry, companies in the sector accelerated localization of imported technologies and moved into new markets. Recent evidence of this shift includes the launch of pipeline gas exports to China in 2019 and development of LNG capabilities to serve the global market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a multi-objective bi-level optimization model for analyzing the different investment options (in natural gas pipelines and regasification terminals) within the EU framework under a market perspective, considering the different interest of market participants and the multiple criteria that need to be achieved simultaneously (i.e. market integration, security of supply and competition). The model consists of the objectives of the network planner at the upper level optimizing a multi-objective function and a lower level that represents the downstream European gas market. The model is used for the assessment of the optimal infrastructure investment in the North-South Gas Interconnections in Western Europe.

With the increasing utilization of natural gas-fired power plants, efficiency and even reliability challenges on both industries arise from the growing reliance on natural gas as fuel in the electricity sector and the increasing demand fluctuation in the natural gas sector. Following a brief review of the discontinuities, improvements are discussed to coping with the desired timely and cost-effectively gas supply in the electricity day-ahead market scheduling. Inspired by its successful implantation in the electricity market, the locational marginal pricing mechanism is applied to the natural gas day-ahead market. Moreover, the bidding strategy for general gas demand utilities is provided while considering the potential applicability of demand response (DR) which is also practiced in the electricity market. The formulations are represented as bilevel problems of each corresponding market, of which upper level problems maximize the participants' profit, while the lower level problem renders the market clearing with schedules and locational marginal prices. Then, a coevolutionary algorithm is proposed to find the equilibrium of the two coupled markets with integrated participants. Results show that the proposed methodology with synchronized intraday time intervals and DR abilities could provide higher efficiency for the natural gas market, which will help the electricity market better coordinated to provide flatter price signals while scheduling more renewable energy sources.

Natural gas today is one of the most important gaseous fuels and one of the most important energy sources. Its composition is a mixture of hydrocarbons, which is dominated by methane with an amount of over 90% compared to other constituent gases, and thanks to this fact has the lowest carbon dioxide emission per unit of energy released and therefore natural gas is considered environmentally friendly fuel. According to the most common definition found in the regulations governing the natural gas market, natural gas is a mixture of hydrocarbons, in which the main component (component) is methane in the gaseous state, which is obtained from the ground in the natural state or together with liquid hydrocarbons. The natural gas market is defined as an organized way of buying and selling natural gas based on supply and demand, by applying conditions and procedures prescribed by law. With the very beginning of the use of natural gas, there is a need to organize a natural gas market and its regulation, ie legal regulation of the conditions and relations between the entities involved in this market. The current regulation of the natural gas market should enable the improvement of the conditions for all its participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pan-European and national policy documents were reviewed that set the goals for the development of the European economy and energy. The objective of this paper is due to changes in European policy vision of the natural gas's future prospects of in the context of establishing strict climatic requirements and the desire to achieve a carbon-neutral level of the European economy development. In previous periods, it was believed that until the 2040s-2050s we can expect the ―Golden Age‖ of natural gas, which was due to the success of the "shale revolution" in the United States, significant expectations of a repeat of the US success of shale gas production in other parts of the world, increased transportation of natural gas by pipelines and LNG tankers; decreased growth rate of a nuclear energy and further cost reduction of a shale gas production. A change in the European energy policy towards the strengthening of environmental requirements, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and emerging of EU's role in combating climate change causes uncertainties regarding prospects of natural gas as an energy resource in Europe. By choosing the European vector of development, Ukraine is interested in meeting requirements of EU policy within the framework of its international obligations and European integration ambitions. This makes it necessary to adapt national development programs and strategies to new conditions and challenges that arise in the EU. The analysis of the main EU policy documents on prospects for the natural and other synthetic gases development allows us to begin to reassess national development plans for adapting the internal developed gas infrastructure to new market opportunities, which will permit Ukraine to increase its competitiveness in the gas market further, and consumers will be able to receive energy resources at more competitive prices and an appropriate quality of service. The complex of problematic issues that arise in the EU member states regarding the formation of incentives for the introduction of synthetic, "green" gases, adoption of appropriate regulatory mechanisms, formation of effective financial mechanisms that would attract investment in the development of a new infrastructure or development of new technologies requires from Ukraine to define priorities of its economic development, to form a roadmap for the energy system transformation in accordance with new international requirements, internal needs and economic opportunities to implement corresponding technological transformations. The central government after consultations with interested participants in the energy market should form a nationwide vision of the vector for the energy sector development in Ukraine and the place of natural gas in the energy supply of Ukraine until 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Energy Policy Journal / Polityka Energetyczna is the property of Mineral & Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We study market equilibria that are achieved by strategic firms that participate in electricity and natural gas markets. Strategic firms submit their offers and bids to both markets with the aim of maximizing profit or utility and we consider firms that can include a combination of electricity and natural gas supply and demand. The strategic actions of these firms are represented by upper-level problems that are optimized subject to shared lower-level problems that represent the clearing of electricity and natural gas markets. This market structure and our modeling approach yields a multiple-leader/two-follower complementarity problem. We develop a modeling approach that can find equilibria with different characteristics, e.g., maximized social welfare, producer profits, or consumer welfare. We demonstrate numerically that producers aim typically to increase market prices while consumers seek to decrease them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]