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Ancient DNA (aDNA) is increasingly being used to investigate questions such as the phylogenetic relationships and divergence times of extant and extinct species. If aDNA samples are sufficiently old, expected branch lengths (in units of nucleotide substitutions) are reduced relative to contemporary samples. This can be accounted for by incorporating sample ages into phylogenetic analyses. Existing methods that use tip (sample) dates infer gene trees rather than species trees, which can lead to incorrect or biased inferences of the species tree. Methods using a multispecies coalescent (MSC) model overcome these issues. We developed an MSC model with tip dates and implemented it in the program BPP. The method performed well for a range of biologically realistic scenarios, estimating calibrated divergence times and mutation rates precisely. Simulations suggest that estimation precision can be best improved by prioritizing sampling of many loci and more ancient samples. Incorrectly treating ancient samples as contemporary in analyzing simulated data, mimicking a common practice of empirical analyses, led to large systematic biases in model parameters, including divergence times. Two genomic datasets of mammoths and elephants were analyzed, demonstrating the method's empirical utility.

The multispecies coalescent (MSC) model accommodates genealogical fluctuations across the genome and provides a natural framework for comparative analysis of genomic sequence data from closely related species to infer the history of species divergence and gene flow. Given a set of populations, hypotheses of species delimitation (and species phylogeny) may be formulated as instances of MSC models (e.g. MSC for 1 species versus MSC for 2 species) and compared using Bayesian model selection. This approach, implemented in the program bpp , has been found to be prone to over-splitting. Alternatively, heuristic criteria based on population parameters (such as population split times, population sizes, and migration rates) estimated from genomic data may be used to delimit species. Here, we develop hierarchical merge and split algorithms for heuristic species delimitation based on the genealogical divergence index (⁠ g d i ⁠) and implement them in a Python pipeline called hhsd. We characterize the behavior of the g d i under a few simple scenarios of gene flow. We apply the new approaches to a dataset simulated under a model of isolation by distance as well as 3 empirical datasets. Our tests suggest that the new approaches produced sensible results and were less prone to oversplitting. We discuss possible strategies for accommodating paraphyletic species in the hierarchical algorithm, as well as the challenges of species delimitation based on heuristic criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assembly of a comprehensive and dated Tree of Life (ToL) remains one of the most formidable challenges in evolutionary biology. The complexity of life's history, involving both vertical and horizontal transmission of genetic information, defies its representation by a simple bifurcating phylogeny. With the advent of genome and metagenome sequencing, vast amounts of data have become available. However, employing this information for phylogeny and divergence time inference has introduced significant theoretical and computational hurdles. This perspective addresses some key methodological challenges in assembling the dated ToL, namely, the identification and classification of homologous genes, accounting for gene tree-species tree mismatch due to population-level processes along with duplication, loss, and horizontal gene transfer, and the accurate dating of evolutionary events. Ultimately, the success of this endeavor requires new approaches that integrate knowledge databases with optimized phylogenetic algorithms capable of managing complex evolutionary models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: Polypodium pellucidum, a fern endemic to the Hawaiian Islands, encompasses five ecologically and morphologically variable subspecies, suggesting a complex history involving both rapid divergence and rampant hybridization. Methods: We employed a large target‐capture data set to investigate the evolution of genetic, morphological, and ecological variation in P. pellucidum. With a broad sampling across five Hawaiian Islands, we deciphered the evolutionary history of P. pellucidum, identified nonhybrid lineages and intraspecific hybrids, and inferred the relative influence of geography and ecology on their distributions. Results: Polypodium pellucidum is monophyletic, dispersing to the Hawaiian archipelago 11.53–7.77 Ma and diversifying into extant clades between 5.66 and 4.73 Ma. We identified four nonhybrid clades with unique morphologies, ecological niches, and distributions. Additionally, we elucidated several intraspecific hybrid combinations and evidence for undiscovered or extinct "ghost" lineages contributing to extant hybrid populations. Conclusions: We provide a foundation for revising the taxonomy of P. pellucidum to account for cryptic lineages and intraspecific hybrids. Geologic succession of the Hawaiian Islands through cycles of volcanism, vegetative succession, and erosion has determined the available habitats and distribution of ecologically specific, divergent clades within P. pellucidum. Intraspecific hybrids have likely arisen due to ecological and or geological transitions, often persisting after the local extinction of their progenitors. This research contributes to our understanding of the evolution of Hawai'i's diverse fern flora and illuminated cryptic taxa to allow better‐informed conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of genome sequence data have revealed pervasive interspecific gene flow and enriched our understanding of the role of gene flow in speciation and adaptation. Inference of gene flow using genomic data requires powerful statistical methods. Yet current likelihood-based methods involve heavy computation and are feasible for small datasets only. Here, we implement the multispecies-coalescent-with-migration model in the Bayesian program bpp, which can be used to test for gene flow and estimate migration rates, as well as species divergence times and population sizes. We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for efficient sampling from the posterior, enabling the analysis of genome-scale datasets with thousands of loci. Implementation of both introgression and migration models in the same program allows us to test whether gene flow occurred continuously over time or in pulses. Analyses of genomic data from Anopheles mosquitoes demonstrate rich information in typical genomic datasets about the mode and rate of gene flow.

A recent study on the freshwater planarian fauna of Corsica and Sardinia established that the formerly presumed single species Dugesia benazzii subsumed a complex of species. In that study, a thorough integrative taxonomic approach, combining molecular, morphological, and karyological data, uncovered the presence of two new endemic species. For the present study, additional samplings were conducted on Corsica, covering several new localities. The data obtained were added to our previous datasets, which included information on specimens collected from both islands. By taking a similar integrative approach to the prior study, we here describe another new endemic species from Corsica, Dugesia xeropotamica. Although our results support the separate status of this new species, it also turned out that the evolutionary relationships among species of the Corso-Sardinian clade remain unclear, because the relationships are not well resolved. Additionally, we corroborate the presence of Dugesia mariae on the Tyrrhenian islets of Montecristo and Molara, representing new records for this group of Dugesia species in the region of the Tyrrhenian Sea. In all, our findings indicate that the evolutionary and biogeographical history of Dugesia species in this region of the Western Mediterranean is more intricate than previously thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately reconstructing the reticulate histories of polyploids remains a central challenge for understanding plant evolution. Although phylogenetic networks can provide insights into relationships among polyploid lineages, inferring networks may be hindered by the complexities of homology determination in polyploid taxa. We use simulations to show that phasing alleles from allopolyploid individuals can improve phylogenetic network inference under the multispecies coalescent by obtaining the true network with fewer loci compared with haplotype consensus sequences or sequences with heterozygous bases represented as ambiguity codes. Phased allelic data can also improve divergence time estimates for networks, which is helpful for evaluating allopolyploid speciation hypotheses and proposing mechanisms of speciation. To achieve these outcomes in empirical data, we present a novel pipeline that leverages a recently developed phasing algorithm to reliably phase alleles from polyploids. This pipeline is especially appropriate for target enrichment data, where the depth of coverage is typically high enough to phase entire loci. We provide an empirical example in the North American Dryopteris fern complex that demonstrates insights from phased data as well as the challenges of network inference. We establish that our pipeline (PATÉ: Phased Alleles from Target Enrichment data) is capable of recovering a high proportion of phased loci from both diploids and polyploids. These data may improve network estimates compared with using haplotype consensus assemblies by accurately inferring the direction of gene flow, but statistical nonidentifiability of phylogenetic networks poses a barrier to inferring the evolutionary history of reticulate complexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multispecies coalescent (MSC) model accommodates both species divergences and within-species coalescent and provides a natural framework for phylogenetic analysis of genomic data when the gene trees vary across the genome. The MSC model implemented in the program bpp assumes a molecular clock and the Jukes-Cantor model, and is suitable for analyzing genomic data from closely related species. Here we extend our implementation to more general substitution models and relaxed clocks to allow the rate to vary among species. The MSC-with-relaxed-clock model allows the estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using genomic sequences sampled from contemporary species when the strict clock assumption is violated, and provides a simulation framework for evaluating species tree estimation methods. We conducted simulations and analyzed two real datasets to evaluate the utility of the new models. We confirm that the clock-JC model is adequate for inference of shallow trees with closely related species, but it is important to account for clock violation for distant species. Our simulation suggests that there is valuable phylogenetic information in the gene-tree branch lengths even if the molecular clock assumption is seriously violated, and the relaxed-clock models implemented in bpp are able to extract such information. Our Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms suffer from mixing problems when used for species tree estimation under the relaxed clock and we discuss possible improvements. We conclude that the new models are currently most effective for estimating population parameters such as species divergence times when the species tree is fixed.

Gene flow between species, although usually deleterious, is an important evolutionary process that can facilitate adaptation and lead to species diversification. It also makes estimation of species relationships difficult. Here, we use the full-likelihood multispecies coalescent (MSC) approach to estimate species phylogeny and major introgression events in Heliconius butterflies from whole-genome sequence data. We obtain a robust estimate of species branching order among major clades in the genus, including the ‘melpomene-silvaniform’ group, which shows extensive historical and ongoing gene flow. We obtain chromosome-level estimates of key parameters in the species phylogeny, including species divergence times, present-day and ancestral population sizes, as well as the direction, timing, and intensity of gene flow. Our analysis leads to a phylogeny with introgression events that differ from those obtained in previous studies. We find that Heliconius aoede most likely represents the earliest-branching lineage of the genus and that ‘silvaniform’ species are paraphyletic within the melpomene-silvaniform group. Our phylogeny provides new, parsimonious histories for the origins of key traits in Heliconius, including pollen feeding and an inversion involved in wing pattern mimicry. Our results demonstrate the power and feasibility of the full-likelihood MSC approach for estimating species phylogeny and key population parameters despite extensive gene flow. The methods used here should be useful for analysis of other difficult species groups with high rates of introgression.

We address the problem of rooting an unrooted species tree given a set of unrooted gene trees, under the assumption that gene trees evolve within the model species tree under the multispecies coalescent (MSC) model. Quintet Rooting (QR) is a polynomial time algorithm that was recently proposed for this problem, which is based on the theory developed by Allman, Degnan, and Rhodes that proves the identifiability of rooted 5-taxon trees from unrooted gene trees under the MSC. However, although QR had good accuracy in simulations, its statistical consistency was left as an open problem. We present QR-STAR, a variant of QR with an additional step and a different cost function, and prove that it is statistically consistent under the MSC. Moreover, we derive sample complexity bounds for QR-STAR and show that a particular variant of it based on "short quintets" has polynomial sample complexity. Finally, our simulation study under a variety of model conditions shows that QR-STAR matches or improves on the accuracy of QR. QR-STAR is available in open-source form on github. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under rapid radiation, the earliest components of evolutionary divergence are often difficult to resolve, which were always driven by the characteristics of taxa and the limitations of alternative analytical methods. The origin and radiation of the alpine butterfly Parnassius, a high‐altitude mountainous insect group, can be attributed to the uplift of the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. Despite detailed phylogenetic analyses of the genus, deep phylogenetic relationships among the major subgenera remain recalcitrant. In this study, 102 individuals from 10 representative Parnassius species were sampled to resolve the phylogenetic relationships among subgenera based on nuclear and mitochondrial genome datasets. Gene‐tree/species‐tree conflicts were detected by concatenation and multispecies coalescent (MSC) approaches. We recovered a well‐supported species tree, despite these conflicts, and detected considerable phylogenetic discordance among genomic regions. The main explanation for the topological discordance among subgenera was extensive incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), whereas introgression events were not prominent. The origin and explosive radiation of Parnassius (i.e., rapid succession of speciation events) in the late Miocene associated with environmental events on the plateau led to short internal branches, thereby increasing ILS and topological conflicts, especially among closely related subgenera. Our results also suggested that MSC approaches (SNP and AFLP Package for Phylogenetic analysis [SNAPP] and SVDquartets) are accurate and superior to the concatenation approach; in particular, SVDquartets can explicitly accommodate gene‐tree/species‐tree conflicts caused by high ILS and demonstrate strong robustness. Finally, we explored the phylogenomic data by testing multiple sources of phylogenomic conflict to clarify the strengths and limitations of different approaches, while considering phylogenetic signal variation in mitochondrial loci. We anticipate that the phylogeny described here will be the backbone of future evolutionary studies of the genus and will provide insight into phylogenetic discordance due to rapid radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genomic data are informative about the history of species divergence and interspecific gene flow, including the direction, timing, and strength of gene flow. However, gene flow in opposite directions generates similar patterns in multilocus sequence data, such as reduced sequence divergence between the hybridizing species. As a result, inference of the direction of gene flow is challenging. Here, we investigate the information about the direction of gene flow present in genomic sequence data using likelihood-based methods under the multispecies-coalescent-with-introgression model. We analyze the case of two species, and use simulation to examine cases with three or four species. We find that it is easier to infer gene flow from a small population to a large one than in the opposite direction, and easier to infer inflow (gene flow from outgroup species to an ingroup species) than outflow (gene flow from an ingroup species to an outgroup species). It is also easier to infer gene flow if there is a longer time of separate evolution between the initial divergence and subsequent introgression. When introgression is assumed to occur in the wrong direction, the time of introgression tends to be correctly estimated and the Bayesian test of gene flow is often significant, while estimates of introgression probability can be even greater than the true probability. We analyze genomic sequences from Heliconius butterflies to demonstrate that typical genomic datasets are informative about the direction of interspecific gene flow, as well as its timing and strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Likelihood-based tests of phylogenetic trees are a foundation of modern systematics. Over the past decade, an enormous wealth and diversity of model-based approaches have been developed for phylogenetic inference of both gene trees and species trees. However, while many techniques exist for conducting formal likelihood-based tests of gene trees, such frameworks are comparatively underdeveloped and underutilized for testing species tree hypotheses. To date, widely used tests of tree topology are designed to assess the fit of classical models of molecular sequence data and individual gene trees and thus are not readily applicable to the problem of species tree inference. To address this issue, we derive several analogous likelihood-based approaches for testing topologies using modern species tree models and heuristic algorithms that use gene tree topologies as input for maximum likelihood estimation under the multispecies coalescent. For the purpose of comparing support for species trees, these tests leverage the statistical procedures of their original gene tree-based counterparts that have an extended history for testing phylogenetic hypotheses at a single locus. We discuss and demonstrate a number of applications, limitations, and important considerations of these tests using simulated and empirical phylogenomic data sets that include both bifurcating topologies and reticulate network models of species relationships. Finally, we introduce the open-source R package SpeciesTopoTestR (Species Topo logy Test s in R) that includes a suite of functions for conducting formal likelihood-based tests of species topologies given a set of input gene tree topologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolutionary histories of individual loci in a genome can be estimated independently, but this approach is error-prone due to the limited amount of sequence data available for each gene, which has led to the development of a diverse array of gene tree error correction methods which reduce the distance to the species tree. We investigate the performance of two representatives of these methods: TRACTION and TreeFix. We found that gene tree error correction frequently increases the level of error in gene tree topologies by "correcting" them to be closer to the species tree, even when the true gene and species trees are discordant. We confirm that full Bayesian inference of the gene trees under the multispecies coalescent model is more accurate than independent inference. Future gene tree correction approaches and methods should incorporate an adequately realistic model of evolution instead of relying on oversimplified heuristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using molecular genetic data, recognised diversity within the gecko genus Cyrtodactylus has more than doubled, with many lineages that were once thought to be wide‐ranging being delimited into multiple independent species. On the Southeast Asian island of Borneo, there has been a recent renewed focus on reptile taxonomy, as genetic data have demonstrated a high amount of unrecognised biodiversity. We herein advance this taxonomic trend by delimiting three distinct species within the Cyrtodactylus consobrinus species complex: C. consobrinus, C. kapitensis sp. n., and C. hutan sp. n. To do so, we use a combination of ddRADseq and single‐locus data, and morphological data. Using genomic data, we test species and population boundaries within the consobrinus species complex and show minimal population structure but high species‐level diversity. Despite not finding uniquely diagnostic morphological characters to delimit the new species, we suggest a combination of characters that can be used to identify each lineage. Lastly, we use our data to comment on the status of C. malayanus, with indications that this lineage is also better considered a species complex. These data highlight the prevalence of unrecognised lineages on Borneo, many of which face threats due to increasing deforestation and other anthropogenic pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The advent of rapid and inexpensive sequencing technologies has necessitated the development of computationally efficient methods for analyzing sequence data for many genes simultaneously in a phylogenetic framework. The coalescent process is the most commonly used model for linking the underlying genealogies of individual genes with the global species-level phylogeny, but inference under the coalescent model is computationally daunting in the typical inference frameworks (e.g., the likelihood and Bayesian frameworks) due to the dimensionality of the space of both gene trees and species trees. Here we consider estimation of the branch lengths in fixed species trees with three or four taxa, and show that these branch lengths are identifiable. We also show that for three and four taxa simple estimators for the branch lengths can be derived based on observed site pattern frequencies. Properties of these estimators, such as their asymptotic variances and large-sample distributions, are examined, and performance of the estimators is assessed using simulation. Finally, we use these estimators to develop a hypothesis test that can be used to delimit species under the coalescent model for three or four putative taxa. • Three- and four-taxon species phylogenies are considered. • Identifiability of speciation times is proven under the multispecies coalescent. • Estimators are obtained under the JC69 model. • Simulation is used to assess performance of the estimators. • An application to the problem of species delimitation is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent simulation studies examining the performance of Bayesian species delimitation as implemented in the bpp program have suggested that bpp may detect population splits but not species divergences and that it tends to over-split when data of many loci are analyzed. Here, we confirm these results and provide the mathematical justifications. We point out that the distinction between population and species splits made in the protracted speciation model (PSM) has no influence on the generation of gene trees and sequence data, which explains why no method can use such data to distinguish between population splits and speciation. We suggest that the PSM is unrealistic as its mechanism for assigning species status assumes instantaneous speciation, contradicting prevailing taxonomic practice. We confirm the suggestion, based on simulation, that in the case of speciation with gene flow, Bayesian model selection as implemented in bpp tends to detect population splits when the amount of data (the number of loci) increases. We discuss the use of a recently proposed empirical genealogical divergence index (gdi) for species delimitation and illustrate that parameter estimates produced by a full likelihood analysis as implemented in bpp provide much more reliable inference under the gdi than the approximate method phrapl. We distinguish between Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation and suggest that the model selection approach is useful for identifying sympatric cryptic species, while the parameter estimation approach may be used to implement empirical criteria for determining species status among allopatric populations.

The multispecies coalescent provides a natural framework for accommodating ancestral genetic polymorphism and coalescent processes that can cause different genomic regions to have different genealogical histories. The Bayesian program BPP includes a full-likelihood implementation of the multispecies coalescent, using transmodel Markov chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probabilities of different species trees. BPP is suitable for analyzing multilocus sequence data sets and it accommodates the heterogeneity of gene trees (both the topology and branch lengths) among loci and gene tree uncertainties due to limited phylogenetic information at each locus. Here, we provide a practical guide to the use of BPP in species tree estimation. BPP is a command-line program that runs on linux, macosx, and windows. This protocol shows how to use both BPP 3.4 (http://abacus.gene.ucl.ac.uk/software/) and BPP 4.0 (https://github.com/bpp/).

Phylogenetic diversity indices such as the Fair Proportion (FP) index are frequently discussed as prioritization criteria in biodiversity conservation. They rank species according to their contribution to overall diversity by taking into account the unique and shared evolutionary history of each species as indicated by its placement in an underlying phylogenetic tree. Traditionally, phylogenetic trees were inferred from single genes and the resulting gene trees were assumed to be a valid estimate for the species tree, i.e., the “true” evolutionary history of the species under consideration. However, nowadays it is common to sequence whole genomes of hundreds or thousands of genes, and it is often the case that conflicting genealogical histories exist in different genes throughout the genome, resulting in discordance between individual gene trees and the species tree. Here, we analyze the effects of gene and species tree discordance on prioritization decisions based on the FP index. In particular, we consider the ranking order of taxa induced by (i) The FP index on a species tree, and (ii) The expected FP index across all gene tree histories associated with the species tree. On the one hand, we show that for particular tree shapes, the two rankings always coincide. On the other hand, we show that for all leaf numbers greater than or equal to five, there exist species trees for which the two rankings differ. Finally, we illustrate the variability in the rankings obtained from the FP index across different gene tree and species tree estimates for an empirical multilocus mammal data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genomic sequence data provide a rich source of information about the history of species divergence and interspecific hybridization or introgression. Despite recent advances in genomics and statistical methods, it remains challenging to infer gene flow, and as a result, one may have to estimate introgression rates and times under misspecified models. Here we use mathematical analysis and computer simulation to examine estimation bias and issues of interpretation when the model of gene flow is misspecified in analysis of genomic datasets, for example, if introgression is assigned to the wrong lineages. In the case of two species, we establish a correspondence between the migration rate in the continuous migration model and the introgression probability in the introgression model. When gene flow occurs continuously through time but in the analysis is assumed to occur at a fixed time point, common evolutionary parameters such as species divergence times are surprisingly well estimated. However, the time of introgression tends to be estimated towards the recent end of the period of continuous gene flow. When introgression events are assigned incorrectly to the parental or daughter lineages, introgression times tend to collapse onto species divergence times, with introgression probabilities underestimated. Overall, our analyses suggest that the simple introgression model is useful for extracting information concerning between-specific gene flow and divergence even when the model may be misspecified. However, for reliable inference of gene flow it is important to include multiple samples per species, in particular, from hybridizing species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The diversity of biological and ecological characteristics of organisms, and the underlying genetic patterns and processes of speciation, makes the development of universally applicable genetic species delimitation methods challenging. Many approaches, like those incorporating the multispecies coalescent, sometimes delimit populations and overestimate species numbers. This issue is exacerbated in taxa with inherently high population structure due to low dispersal ability, and in cryptic species resulting from nonecological speciation. These taxa present a conundrum when delimiting species: analyses rely heavily, if not entirely, on genetic data which over split species, while other lines of evidence lump. We showcase this conundrum in the harvester Theromaster brunneus, a low dispersal taxon with a wide geographic distribution and high potential for cryptic species. Integrating morphology, mitochondrial, and sub-genomic (double-digest RADSeq and ultraconserved elements) data, we find high discordance across analyses and data types in the number of inferred species, with further evidence that multispecies coalescent approaches over split. We demonstrate the power of a supervised machine learning approach in effectively delimiting cryptic species by creating a “custom” training data set derived from a well-studied lineage with similar biological characteristics as Theromaster. This novel approach uses known taxa with particular biological characteristics to inform unknown taxa with similar characteristics, using modern computational tools ideally suited for species delimitation. The approach also considers the natural history of organisms to make more biologically informed species delimitation decisions, and in principle is broadly applicable for taxa across the tree of life.

The family Alaudidae, larks, comprises 93–100 species (depending on taxonomy) that are widely distributed across Africa and Eurasia, with single species extending their ranges to North and northernmost South America and Australia. A decade-old molecular phylogeny, comprising ∼80% of the species, revealed multiple cases of parallel evolution and large variation in rates of morphological evolution, which had misled taxonomists into creating many non-monophyletic genera. Here, we reconstruct the phylogeny of the larks, using a dataset covering one mitochondrial and 16 nuclear loci and comprising all except one of the currently recognised species as well as several recently proposed new species (in total 133 taxa; not all loci available for all species). We provide additional support using genome-wide markers to infer a genus-level phylogeny based on near-complete generic sampling (in total 51 samples of 44 taxa across 40 species). Our results confirm the previous findings of rampant morphological convergence and divergence, and reveal new cases of paraphyletic genera. We propose a new subfamily classification, and also that the genus Mirafra is divided into four genera to produce a more balanced generic classification of the Alaudidae. Our study supports recently proposed species splits as well as some recent lumps, while also questioning some of the latter. This comprehensive phylogeny will form an important basis for future studies, such as comparative studies of lark natural history, ecology, evolution and conservation.

Accurate species delimitation is the key to precise estimation of species diversity and is fundamental to most branches of biology. Unclear species boundaries within species complexes could lead to the underestimation of species diversity. However, species delimitation of species complexes remains challenging due to the continuum of phenotypic variations. To robustly examine species boundaries within a species complex, integrative approaches in phylogeny, ecology, and morphology were applied to the Stewartia sinensis complex (Theaceae) endemic to China. Multispecies coalescent‐based species delimitation using 572 nuclear ortholog sequences (anchored enrichment) supported reciprocal phylogenetic monophyly of the northern lineage (NL) and southern lineage (SL), which were not sister clades. Niche equivalency and similarity tests demonstrated significant climatic niche differentiation between NL and SL with observed Warren et al.'s I = 0.0073 and Schoener's D = 0.0021. Species distribution modeling also separated their potential distribution. Morphometric analyses suggested significant interlineage differentiation of multiple traits including the ratio of length and width, leaf width, and pedicel length, although overall similarity did not differ. Based on the integrative species concept, two distinct species were proposed with legitimate names of Stewartia gemmata for SL and S. sinensis for NL. Our empirical study of the S. sinensis complex highlights the importance of applying multiple species criteria, in particular the underappreciated niche differentiation, to species delimitation in species complexes pervasive in plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary methods seek to infer a species tree from a set of gene trees. A desirable property of such methods is that of statistical consistency; that is, the probability of inferring the wrong species tree (the error probability) tends to 0 as the number of input gene trees becomes large. A popular paradigm is to infer a species tree that agrees with the maximum number of quartets from the input set of gene trees; this has been proved to be statistically consistent under several models of gene evolution. In this paper, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the error probability of such methods in this limit, and show that it decays exponentially. For a 4-taxon species tree, we derive a closed form for the asymptotic behaviour in terms of the probability that the gene evolution process produces the correct topology. We also derive bounds for the sample complexity (the number of gene trees required to infer the true species tree with a given probability), which outperform existing bounds. We then extend our results to bounds for the asymptotic behaviour of the error probability for any species tree, and compare these to the true error probability for some model species trees using simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a Bayesian method for inferring the species phylogeny under the multispecies coalescent (MSC) model. To improve the mixing properties of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that traverses the space of species trees, we implement two efficient MCMC proposals: the first is based on the Subtree Pruning and Regrafting (SPR) algorithm and the second is based on a node-slider algorithm. Like the Nearest-Neighbor Interchange (NNI) algorithm we implemented previously, both new algorithms propose changes to the species tree, while simultaneously altering the gene trees at multiple genetic loci to automatically avoid conflicts with the newly proposed species tree. The method integrates over gene trees, naturally taking account of the uncertainty of gene tree topology and branch lengths given the sequence data. A simulation study was performed to examine the statistical properties of the new method. The method was found to show excellent statistical performance, inferring the correct species tree with near certainty when 10 loci were included in the dataset. The prior on species trees has some impact, particularly for small numbers of loci. We analyzed several previously published datasets (both real and simulated) for rattlesnakes and Philippine shrews, in comparison with alternative methods. The results suggest that the Bayesian coalescent-based method is statistically more efficient than heuristic methods based on summary statistics, and that our implementation is computationally more efficient than alternative full-likelihood methods under the MSC. Parameter estimates for the rattlesnake data suggest drastically different evolutionary dynamics between the nuclear and mitochondrial loci, even though they support largely consistent species trees. We discuss the different challenges facing the marginal likelihood calculation and transmodel MCMC as alternative strategies for estimating posterior probabilities for species trees. [Bayes factor; Bayesian inference; MCMC; multispecies coalescent; nodeslider; species tree; SPR.].

Species tree inference is a basic step in biological discovery, but discordance between gene trees creates analytical challenges and large data sets create computational challenges. Although there is generally some information available about the species trees that could be used to speed up the estimation, only one species tree estimation method that addresses gene tree discordance—ASTRAL-J, a recent development in the ASTRAL family of methods—is able to use this information. Here we describe two new methods, NJst-J and FASTRAL-J, that can estimate the species tree, given a partial knowledge of the species tree in the form of a nonbinary unrooted constraint tree. We show that both NJst-J and FASTRAL-J are much faster than ASTRAL-J and we prove that all three methods are statistically consistent under the multispecies coalescent model subject to this constraint. Our extensive simulation study shows that both FASTRAL-J and NJst-J provide advantages over ASTRAL-J: both are faster (and NJst-J is particularly fast), and FASTRAL-J is generally at least as accurate as ASTRAL-J. An analysis of the Avian Phylogenomics Project data set with 48 species and 14,446 genes presents additional evidence of the value of FASTRAL-J over ASTRAL-J (and both over ASTRAL), with dramatic reductions in running time (20 hours for default ASTRAL, and minutes or seconds for ASTRAL-J and FASTRAL-J, respectively). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retroelement insertions (RIs) are low-homoplasy characters that are ideal data for addressing deep evolutionary radiations, where gene tree reconstruction errors can severely hinder phylogenetic inference with DNA and protein sequence data. Phylogenomic studies of Neoaves, a large clade of birds (>9000 species) that first diversified near the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary, have yielded an array of robustly supported, contradictory relationships among deep lineages. Here, we reanalyzed a large RI matrix for birds using recently proposed quartet-based coalescent methods that enable inference of large species trees including branch lengths in coalescent units, clade-support, statistical tests for gene flow, and combined analysis with DNA-sequence-based gene trees. Genome-scale coalescent analyses revealed extremely short branches at the base of Neoaves, meager branch support, and limited congruence with previous work at the most challenging nodes. Despite widespread topological conflicts with DNA-sequence-based trees, combined analyses of RIs with thousands of gene trees show emergent support for multiple higher-level clades (Columbea, Passerea, Columbimorphae, Otidimorphae, Phaethoquornithes). RIs express asymmetrical support for deep relationships within the subclade Afroaves that hints at ancient gene flow involving the owl lineage (Strigiformes). Because DNA-sequence data are challenged by gene tree-reconstruction error, analysis of RIs represents one approach for improving gene tree-based methods when divergences are deep, internodes are short, terminal branches are long, and introgressive hybridization further confounds species–tree inference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phylogenomic analyses under the multispecies coalescent model assume no recombination within locus and free recombination among loci. Yet, in real data sets intralocus recombination causes different sites of the same locus to have different genealogical histories so that the model is misspecified. The impact of recombination on various coalescent‐based phylogenomic analyses has not been systematically examined. Here, we conduct a computer simulation to examine the impact of recombination on several Bayesian analyses of multilocus sequence data, including species tree estimation, species delimitation (by Bayesian selection of delimitation models) and estimation of evolutionary parameters such as species divergence and introgression times, population sizes for modern and extinct species, and cross‐species introgression probabilities. We found that recombination, at rates comparable to estimates from the human being, has little impact on coalescent‐based species tree estimation, species delimitation and estimation of population parameters. At rates 10 times higher than the human rate, recombination may affect parameter estimation, causing positive biases in introgression times and ancestral population sizes, although species divergence times and cross‐species introgression probabilities are estimated with little bias. Overall, the simulation suggests that phylogenomic inferences under the multispecies coalescent model are robust to realistic amounts of intralocus recombination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Full-likelihood implementations of the multispecies coalescent with introgression (MSci) model treat genealogical fluctuations across the genome as a major source of information to infer the history of species divergence and gene flow using multilocus sequence data. However, MSci models are known to have unidentifiability issues, whereby different models or parameters make the same predictions about the data and cannot be distinguished by the data. Previous studies of unidentifiability have focused on heuristic methods based on gene trees and do not make an efficient use of the information in the data. Here we study the unidentifiability of MSci models under the full-likelihood methods. We characterize the unidentifiability of the bidirectional introgression (BDI) model, which assumes that gene flow occurs in both directions. We derive simple rules for arbitrary BDI models, which create unidentifiability of the label-switching type. In general, an MSci model with k BDI events has 2 k unidentifiable modes or towers in the posterior, with each BDI event between sister species creating within-model parameter unidentifiability and each BDI event between nonsister species creating between-model unidentifiability. We develop novel algorithms for processing Markov chain Monte Carlo samples to remove label-switching problems and implement them in the bpp program. We analyze real and synthetic data to illustrate the utility of the BDI models and the new algorithms. We discuss the unidentifiability of heuristic methods and provide guidelines for the use of MSci models to infer gene flow using genomic data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enchytraeid worms collected in South Africa and on the Marion, South Orkney, South Georgia and South Shetland Islands during 2008–2015 were studied using morphology and seven genetic markers. Nine species were recognized: one terrestrial (Christensenidrilus blocki) and all the others marine littoral (five Lumbricillus and three Marionina s.s.). An estimated phylogeny including other enchytraeids from the Northern Hemisphere, many of which are members of Lumbricillus and some representing Marionina s.l. , confirmed a non-monophyletic Lumbricillus , with some of its current species closely related to Grania or Marionina s.s. The phylogeny also corroborated a non-monophyletic Marionina s.l. , with Marionina s.s. closely related to Grania and Lumbricillus s.l. , but not to the remaining sequenced ' Marionina ' or to Ch. blocki. These results provide a long-needed starting point for a revision of both Marionina and Lumbricillus. We provide morphological descriptions of all nine species, three of which are new to science: Lumbricillus finisafricae sp. nov. , Lumbricillus nivalis sp. nov. , and Marionina fusca sp. nov. Comments on three related species of Marionina s.s. based on re-examined type material are also provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Multi-locus species phylogeny inference is based on models of sequence evolution on gene trees as well as models of gene tree evolution within the branches of species phylogenies. Almost all statistical methods for this inference task assume a common mechanism across all loci as captured by a single value of each branch length of the species phylogeny. Results In this paper, we pursue a “no common mechanism" (NCM) model, where every gene tree evolves according to its own parameters of the species phylogeny. Based on this model, we derive an analytically integrated likelihood of both species trees and networks given the gene trees of multiple loci under an NCM model. We demonstrate the performance of inference under this integrated likelihood on both simulated and biological data. Conclusions The model presented here will afford opportunities for exploring connections among various criteria for estimating species phylogenies from multiple, independent loci. Furthermore, further development of this model could potentially result in more efficient methods for searching the space of species phylogenies by focusing solely on the topology of the phylogeny.

Abstract Background Previous phylogenetic studies that include the four recognized species of Gallus have resulted in a number of distinct topologies, with little agreement. Several factors could lead to the failure to converge on a consistent topology, including introgression, incomplete lineage sorting, different data types, or insufficient data. Methods We generated three novel whole genome assemblies for Gallus species, which we combined with data from the published genomes of Gallus gallus and Bambusicola thoracicus (a member of the sister genus to Gallus). To determine why previous studies have failed to converge on a single topology, we extracted large numbers of orthologous exons, introns, ultra-conserved elements, and conserved non-exonic elements from the genome assemblies. This provided more than 32 million base pairs of data that we used for concatenated maximum likelihood and multispecies coalescent analyses of Gallus. Results All of our analyses, regardless of data type, yielded a single, well-supported topology. We found some evidence for ancient introgression involving specific Gallus lineages as well as modest data type effects that had an impact on support and branch length estimates in specific analyses. However, the estimated gene tree spectra for all data types had a relatively good fit to their expectation given the multispecies coalescent. Conclusions Overall, our data suggest that conflicts among previous studies probably reflect the use of smaller datasets (both in terms of number of sites and of loci) in those analyses. Our results demonstrate the importance of sampling large numbers of loci, each of which has a sufficient number of sites to provide robust estimates of gene trees. Low-coverage whole genome sequencing, as we did here, represents a cost-effective means to generate the very large data sets that include multiple data types that enabled us to obtain a robust estimate of Gallus phylogeny.

Galapagos giant tortoises are endemic to the Galapagos Archipelago, where they are found in isolated populations. While these populations are widely considered distinguishable in morphology, behavior, and genetics, the recent divergence of these taxa has made their status as species controversial. Here, we apply multispecies coalescent methods for species delimitation to whole genome resequencing data from 38 tortoises across all 13 extant taxa to assess support for delimiting these taxa as species. In contrast to previous studies based solely on divergence time, we find strong evidence to reject the hypothesis that all Galapagos giant tortoises belong to a single species. Instead, a conservative interpretation of model-based and divergence-based results indicates that these taxa form a species complex consisting of a minimum of 9 species, with most analyses supporting 13 species. There is mixed support for the species status of taxa living on the same island, with some methods delimiting them as separate species and others suggesting multiple populations of a single species per island. These results make clear that Galapagos giant tortoise taxa represent different stages in the process of speciation, with some taxa further along in that evolutionary process than others. Our study provides insight into the complex process of speciation on islands, which is urgently needed given the threatened status of island species around the world. Las tortugas gigantes de las Galápagos son endémicas del Archipiélago de Galápagos, donde se encuentran como poblaciones aisladas. Aunque estas poblaciones se consideran distinguibles en cuanto a morfología, comportamiento y genética, la divergencia reciente de estos taxones hace que su estatus como especies sea controvertido. Aquí aplicamos métodos de coalescencia de especies múltiples con datos de resecuenciación de genomas completos de 38 tortugas de los 13 taxones existentes para evaluar el sustento de la delimitación de estos taxones como especies. En contraste con estudios previos basados únicamente en el tiempo de divergencia, encontramos evidencia sólida para rechazar la hipótesis de que todas las tortugas gigantes de las Galápagos pertenecen a una sola especie. En cambio, una interpretación conservadora de los resultados basados en modelos y divergencia indica que estos taxones forman un complejo de especies que consiste de un mínimo de 9 especies, con la mayoría de los análisis respaldando la existencia de 13 especies. Hay sustento mixto para designar como especies a los taxones que habitan la misma isla, con algunos métodos delimitándolos como especies y otros sugiriendo la existencia de poblaciones múltiples de una sola especie por isla. Estos resultados dejan en claro que los taxones de tortugas gigantes de las Galápagos representan diferentes etapas del proceso de especiación, con algunos taxones más avanzados en ese proceso evolutivo que otros. Nuestro estudio ofrece una perspectiva sobre el complejo proceso de especiación en islas, la cual es urgentemente necesaria dado lo amenazadas que se encuentran las especies insulares en todo el mundo., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution (SSE).)

The diversity of biological and ecological characteristics of organisms, and the underlying genetic patterns and processes of speciation, makes the development of universally applicable genetic species delimitation methods challenging. Many approaches, like those incorporating the multispecies coalescent, sometimes delimit populations and overestimate species numbers. This issue is exacerbated in taxa with inherently high population structure due to low dispersal ability, and in cryptic species resulting from nonecological speciation. These taxa present a conundrum when delimiting species: analyses rely heavily, if not entirely, on genetic data which over split species, while other lines of evidence lump. We showcase this conundrum in the harvester Theromaster brunneus, a low dispersal taxon with a wide geographic distribution and high potential for cryptic species. Integrating morphology, mitochondrial, and sub-genomic (double-digest RADSeq and ultraconserved elements) data, we find high discordance across analyses and data types in the number of inferred species, with further evidence that multispecies coalescent approaches over split. We demonstrate the power of a supervised machine learning approach in effectively delimiting cryptic species by creating a "custom" training data set derived from a well-studied lineage with similar biological characteristics as Theromaster. This novel approach uses known taxa with particular biological characteristics to inform unknown taxa with similar characteristics, using modern computational tools ideally suited for species delimitation. The approach also considers the natural history of organisms to make more biologically informed species delimitation decisions, and in principle is broadly applicable for taxa across the tree of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multispecies coalescent (MSC) is the extension of the single-population coalescent model to multiple species. It integrates the phylogenetic process of species divergences and the population genetic process of coalescent, and provides a powerful framework for a number of inference problems using genomic sequence data from multiple species, including estimation of species divergence times and population sizes, estimation of species trees accommodating discordant gene trees, inference of cross-species gene flow and species delimitation. In this review, we introduce the major features of the MSC model, discuss full-likelihood and heuristic methods of species tree estimation and summarize recent methodological advances in inference of cross-species gene flow. We discuss the statistical and computational challenges in the field and research directions where breakthroughs may be likely in the next few years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inference of the evolutionary histories of species, commonly represented by a species tree, is complicated by the divergent evolutionary history of different parts of the genome. Different loci on the genome can have different histories from the underlying species tree (and each other) due to processes such as incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), gene duplication and loss, and horizontal gene transfer. The multispecies coalescent is a commonly used model for performing inference on species and gene trees in the presence of ILS. This paper introduces Lily-T and Lily-Q, two new methods for species tree inference under the multispecies coalescent. We then compare them to two frequently used methods, SVDQuartets and ASTRAL, using simulated and empirical data. Both methods generally showed improvement over SVDQuartets, and Lily-Q was superior to Lily-T for most simulation settings. The comparison to ASTRAL was more mixed—Lily-Q tended to be better than ASTRAL when the length of recombination-free loci was short, when the coalescent population parameter θ was small, or when the internal branch lengths were longer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multispecies coalescent model provides a natural framework for species tree estimation accounting for gene-tree conflicts. Although a number of species tree methods under the multispecies coalescent have been suggested and evaluated using simulation, their statistical properties remain poorly understood. Here, we use mathematical analysis aided by computer simulation to examine the identifiability, consistency, and efficiency of different species tree methods in the case of three species and three sequences under the molecular clock. We consider four major species-tree methods including concatenation, two-step, independent-sites maximum likelihood, and maximum likelihood. We develop approximations that predict that the probit transform of the species tree estimation error decreases linearly with the square root of the number of loci. Even in this simplest case, major differences exist among the methods. Full-likelihood methods are considerably more efficient than summary methods such as concatenation and two-step. They also provide estimates of important parameters such as species divergence times and ancestral population sizes,whereas these parameters are not identifiable by summary methods. Our results highlight the need to improve the statistical efficiency of summary methods and the computational efficiency of full likelihood methods of species tree estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A method was developed for simultaneous Bayesian inference of species delimitation and species phylogeny using the multispecies coalescent model. The method eliminates the need for a user-specified guide tree in species delimitation and incorporates phylogenetic uncertainty in a Bayesian framework. The nearest-neighbor interchange algorithm was adapted to propose changes to the species tree, with the gene trees for multiple loci altered in the proposal to avoid conflicts with the newly proposed species tree. We also modify our previous scheme for specifying priors for species delimitation models to construct joint priors for models of species delimitation and species phylogeny. As in our earlier method, the modified algorithm integrates over gene trees, taking account of the uncertainty of gene tree topology and branch lengths given the sequence data. We conducted a simulation study to examine the statistical properties of the method using six populations (two sequences each) and a true number of three species, with values of divergence times and ancestral population sizes that are realistic for recently diverged species. The results suggest that the method tends to be conservative with high posterior probabilities being a confident indicator of species status. Simulation results also indicate that the power of the method to delimit species increases with an increase of the divergence times in the species tree, and with an increased number of gene loci. Reanalyses of two data sets of cavefish and coast horned lizards suggest considerable phylogenetic uncertainty even though the data are informative about species delimitation. We discuss the impact of the prior on models of species delimitation and species phylogeny and of the prior on population size parameters (θ) on Bayesian species delimitation.

A phylogenetic model of sequence evolution for a set of n taxa is a collection of probability distributions on the 4n possible site patterns that may be observed in their aligned DNA sequences. For a four-taxon model, one can arrange the entries of these probability distributions into three flattening matrices that correspond to the three different unrooted leaf-labeled four-leaf trees, or quartet trees. The flattening matrix corresponding to the tree parameter of the model is known to satisfy certain rank conditions. Methods such as ErikSVD and SVDQuartets take advantage of this observation by applying singular value decomposition to flattening matrices consisting of empirical data. Each possible quartet is assigned an “SVD score” based on how close the flattening is to the set of matrices of the predicted rank. When choosing among possible quartets, the one with the lowest score is inferred to be the phylogeny of the four taxa under consideration. Since an n-leaf phylogenetic tree is determined by its quartets, this approach can be generalized to infer larger phylogenies. In this article, we explore using the SVD score as a test statistic to test whether phylogenetic data were generated by a particular quartet tree. To do so, we use several results to approximate the distribution of the SVD score and to give upper bounds on the p-value of the associated hypothesis tests. We also apply these hypothesis tests to simulated phylogenetic data and discuss the implications for interpreting SVD scores in rank-based inference methods.

Phylogenomic investigations of biodiversity facilitate the detection of fine-scale population genetic structure and the demographic histories of species and populations. However, determining whether or not the genetic divergence measured among populations reflects species-level differentiation remains a central challenge in species delimitation. One potential solution is to compare genetic divergence between putative new species with other closely related species, sometimes referred to as a reference-based taxonomy. To be described as a new species, a population should be at least as divergent as other species. Here, we develop a reference-based taxonomy for Horned Lizards (Phrynosoma; 17 species) using phylogenomic data (ddRADseq data) to provide a framework for delimiting species in the Greater Short-horned Lizard species complex (P. hernandesi). Previous species delimitation studies of this species complex have produced conflicting results, with morphological data suggesting that P. hernandesi consists of five species, whereas mitochondrial DNA support anywhere from 1 to 10 + species. To help address this conflict, we first estimated a time-calibrated species tree for P. hernandesi and close relatives using SNP data. These results support the paraphyly of P. hernandesi; we recommend the recognition of two species to promote a taxonomy that is consistent with species monophyly. There is strong evidence for three populations within P. hernandesi, and demographic modeling and admixture analyses suggest that these populations are not reproductively isolated, which is consistent with previous morphological analyses that suggest hybridization could be common. Finally, we characterize the population-species boundary by quantifying levels of genetic divergence for all 18 Phrynosoma species. Genetic divergence measures for western and southern populations of P. hernandesi failed to exceed those of other Phrynosoma species, but the relatively small population size estimated for the northern population causes it to appear as a relatively divergent species. These comparisons underscore the difficulties associated with putting a reference-based approach to species delimitation into practice. Nevertheless, the reference-based approach offers a promising framework for the consistent assessment of biodiversity within clades of organisms with similar life histories and ecological traits.

Regional species diversity is explained ultimately by speciation, extinction and dispersal. Here, we estimate dispersal and speciation rates of Neotropical butterflies to propose an explanation for the distribution and diversity of extant species. We focused on the tribe Brassolini (owl butterflies and allies), a Neotropical group that comprises 17 genera and 108 species, most of them endemic to rainforest biomes. We inferred a robust species tree using the multispecies coalescent framework and a dataset including molecular and morphological characters. This formed the basis for three changes in Brassolini classification: (1) Naropina syn. nov. is subsumed within Brassolina; (2) Aponarope syn. nov. is subsumed within Narope ; and (3) Selenophanes orgetorix comb. nov. is reassigned from Catoblepia to Selenophanes. By applying biogeographical stochastic mapping, we found contrasting species diversification and dispersal dynamics across rainforest biomes, which might be explained, in part, by the geological and environmental history of each bioregion. Our results revealed a mosaic of biome-specific evolutionary histories within the Neotropics, where butterfly species have diversified rapidly (cradles: Mesoamerica), have accumulated gradually (museums: Atlantic Forest) or have diversified and accumulated alternately (Amazonia). Our study contributes evidence from a major butterfly lineage that the Neotropics are a museum and a cradle of species diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A phylogenetic model of sequence evolution for a set of n taxa is a collection of probability distributions on the 4 n possible site patterns that may be observed in their aligned DNA sequences. For a four-taxon model, one can arrange the entries of these probability distributions into three flattening matrices that correspond to the three different unrooted leaf-labeled four-leaf trees, or quartet trees. The flattening matrix corresponding to the tree parameter of the model is known to satisfy certain rank conditions. Methods such as ErikSVD and SVDQuartets take advantage of this observation by applying singular value decomposition to flattening matrices consisting of empirical data. Each possible quartet is assigned an "SVD score" based on how close the flattening is to the set of matrices of the predicted rank. When choosing among possible quartets, the one with the lowest score is inferred to be the phylogeny of the four taxa under consideration. Since an n -leaf phylogenetic tree is determined by its quartets, this approach can be generalized to infer larger phylogenies. In this article, we explore using the SVD score as a test statistic to test whether phylogenetic data were generated by a particular quartet tree. To do so, we use several results to approximate the distribution of the SVD score and to give upper bounds on the p -value of the associated hypothesis tests. We also apply these hypothesis tests to simulated phylogenetic data and discuss the implications for interpreting SVD scores in rank-based inference methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the availability of genomic data to identify separately evolving groups of organisms, many researchers establish species limits based on assessments of the extent of gene flow among populations and often use analytical approaches to identify species in which gene flow is explicitly disallowed. Strictly considering lack of--or limited--gene flow as the main or only criterion to delimit species involves two main complications in practice. First, approaches often used to analyze genome-wide data cannot by themselves distinguish species limits from within-species population structure, particularly in allopatric organisms. Second, recognizing as species only those lineages one can identify using such approaches fails to embrace the role of other evolutionary forces (i.e. various forms of selection) in defining evolutionary lineages. Using examples from various groups of birds, we call for the importance of considering evolutionary forces additional to gene flow in species delimitation and explain why genomic approaches commonly used in taxonomic studies may be insufficient by themselves to properly uncover species limits. By considering the processes that structure genotypic and phenotypic variation during speciation, we argue that rigorous analyses of phenotypic variation remain crucial for species delimitation in the genomics era because phenotypes uniquely inform us about the role of selection maintaining the cohesion of evolutionary lineages. Evolutionary theory describing the roles of gene flow, genetic drift and natural and sexual selection in the origin and maintenance of species calls for an integration of genomics with phenomics in avian species delimitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background For a combination of reasons (including data generation protocols, approaches to taxon and gene sampling, and gene birth and loss), estimated gene trees are often incomplete, meaning that they do not contain all of the species of interest. As incomplete gene trees can impact downstream analyses, accurate completion of gene trees is desirable. Results We introduce the Optimal Tree Completion problem, a general optimization problem that involves completing an unrooted binary tree (i.e., adding missing leaves) so as to minimize its distance from a reference tree on a superset of the leaves. We present OCTAL, an algorithm that finds an optimal solution to this problem when the distance between trees is defined using the Robinson–Foulds (RF) distance, and we prove that OCTAL runs in $$O(n^2)$$ O(n2) time, where n is the total number of species. We report on a simulation study in which gene trees can differ from the species tree due to incomplete lineage sorting, and estimated gene trees are completed using OCTAL with a reference tree based on a species tree estimated from the multi-locus dataset. OCTAL produces completed gene trees that are closer to the true gene trees than an existing heuristic approach in ASTRAL-II, but the accuracy of a completed gene tree computed by OCTAL depends on how topologically similar the reference tree (typically an estimated species tree) is to the true gene tree. Conclusions OCTAL is a useful technique for adding missing taxa to incomplete gene trees and provides good accuracy under a wide range of model conditions. However, results show that OCTAL’s accuracy can be reduced when incomplete lineage sorting is high, as the reference tree can be far from the true gene tree. Hence, this study suggests that OCTAL would benefit from using other types of reference trees instead of species trees when there are large topological distances between true gene trees and species trees.

The multispecies coalescent process models the genealogical relationships of genes sampled from several species, enabling useful predictions about phenomena such as the discordance between a gene tree and the species phylogeny due to incomplete lineage sorting. Conversely, knowledge of large collections of gene trees can inform us about several aspects of the species phylogeny, such as its topology and ancestral population sizes. A fundamental open problem in this context is how to efficiently compute the probability of a gene tree topology, given the species phylogeny. Although a number of algorithms for this task have been proposed, they either produce approximate results, or, when they are exact, they do not scale to large data sets. In this paper, we present some progress towards exact and efficient computation of the probability of a gene tree topology. We provide a new algorithm that, given a species tree and the number of genes sampled for each species, calculates the probability that the gene tree topology will be concordant with the species tree. Moreover, we provide an algorithm that computes the probability of any specific gene tree topology concordant with the species tree. Both algorithms run in polynomial time and have been implemented in Python. Experiments show that they are able to analyze data sets where thousands of genes are sampled in a matter of minutes to hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predators and prey interact at small spatial scales, but during their lifetime disperse at much larger spatial scales. Trophic metacommunity theory proposes that dispersal is a critical process that determines food web structure at small and large scales. The application of metacommunity theory to empirical systems remains elusive because key parameters such as dispersal and interaction strengths have been very difficult to quantify. Here we develop a novel approach that combines population genomics with mesocosm experiments to parameterize a metacommunity model. Using genotyping‐by‐sequencing, we characterized the dispersal kernels of a predator–prey pair living in a phytotelm metacommunity. We found that the prey dispersed up to 25 km while the predator dispersed only 350 m. We then quantified a functional response for these species using feeding trials. Even without invoking differences in the abiotic niche, our empirically parameterized simulation model produced patterns of population survival and occupancy that were consistent with past observations on the natural system. Importantly we found that these patterns were more likely to be found with simulations based on our observed values than in other regions of potential parameter space. This suggests that the observed dispersal kernels contribute to the dynamics of these species in the metacommunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]