1. A tri-light warning system for hospitalized COVID-19 patients: Credibility-based risk stratification for future pandemic preparedness
- Author
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Xu, Chuanjun, Xu, Qinmei, Liu, Li, Zhou, Mu, Xing, Zijian, Zhou, Zhen, Ren, Danyang, Zhou, Changsheng, Zhang, Longjiang, Li, Xiao, Zhan, Xianghao, Gevaert, Olivier, and Lu, Guangming
- Subjects
Biomedical and Clinical Sciences ,Clinical Sciences ,Genetics ,Lung ,Infectious Diseases ,Coronaviruses ,Emerging Infectious Diseases ,Patient Safety ,Good Health and Well Being ,COVID-19 pandemic ,Multi-modal artificial intelligence ,Risk stratification ,Conformal prediction ,Multi-center study - Abstract
PurposeThe novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has continually spread and mutated, requiring a patient risk stratification system to optimize medical resources and improve pandemic response. We aimed to develop a conformal prediction-based tri-light warning system for stratifying COVID-19 patients, applicable to both original and emerging variants.MethodsWe retrospectively collected data from 3646 patients across multiple centers in China. The dataset was divided into a training set (n = 1451), a validation set (n = 662), an external test set from Huoshenshan Field Hospital (n = 1263), and a specific test set for Delta and Omicron variants (n = 544). The tri-light warning system extracts radiomic features from CT (computed tomography) and integrates clinical records to classify patients into high-risk (red), uncertain-risk (yellow), and low-risk (green) categories. Models were built to predict ICU (intensive care unit) admissions (adverse cases in training/validation/Huoshenshan/variant test sets: n = 39/21/262/11) and were evaluated using AUROC ((area under the receiver operating characteristic curve)) and AUPRC ((area under the precision-recall curve)) metrics.ResultsThe dataset included 1830 men (50.2 %) and 1816 women (50.8 %), with a median age of 53.7 years (IQR [interquartile range]: 42-65 years). The system demonstrated strong performance under data distribution shifts, with AUROC of 0.89 and AUPRC of 0.42 for original strains, and AUROC of 0.77-0.85 and AUPRC of 0.51-0.60 for variants.ConclusionThe tri-light warning system can enhance pandemic responses by effectively stratifying COVID-19 patients under varying conditions and data shifts.
- Published
- 2024