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International audience; In the subalpine forest ecosystems of the French Alps, European larch trees (Larix decidua Mill.) are periodically affected by outbreaks of a defoliating insect, the larch budmoth (Zeiraphera griseana (Hubner, 1799); LBM). To assess the long-term dynamics of LBM populations, we propose a spatiotemporal analysis of a long outbreak chronology reconstruction for the entire French Alps covering the period 1414-2009. This chronology was obtained by analyzing tree ring width (TRW) chronologies collected from 44 larch populations. The evidence of a latitudinal gradient in LBM is an original result that we have related to the "travelling waves" and "epicenter" theory. Wavelet analyses revealed a strong explicit continuous signal for periodicities of 4, 8, and 16 years throughout the entire 1500-2003 time series, except for a loss of power from 1690 to 1790 and since the early 1980s. We hypothesize that these abrupt changes could reflect a physiological response of LBM to past climatic variations. The spatial and temporal variability of LBM outbreaks and the propagation phenomenon in the French Alps highlighted by this study raises questions regarding its future dynamics in response to the expected climate change.; Dans les écosystèmes forestiers subalpins des Alpes françaises, le mélèze (Larix decidua Mill.) subit périodiquement les épidémies d’un insecte défoliateur, la tordeuse du mélèze (Zeiraphera griseana (Hübner, 1799); LBM). Afin de mieux comprendre les dynamiques à long terme des populations de tordeuse, nous proposons dans cet article une analyse spatio-temporelle d’une très longue reconstruction des épidémies pour la période 1414–2009 sur l’ensemble des Alpes françaises. Cette chronologie a pu être reconstruite à partir des cernes de croissance de 44 populations de mélèze. Les résultats ont permis de mettre en évidence le rôle d’un gradient latitudinal que nous avons attribué au phénomène théorique des « épicentres » et « vagues de dissémination ». D’autre part, les analyses temporelles, réalisées à l’aide de la méthode des ondelettes, ont révélé l’existence d’un fort signal continu pour des fréquences périodiques de 4, 8 et 16 ans sur l’ensemble de la chronologie à l’exception d’une perte d’énergie entre 1690 et 1790 et depuis le début des années 1980. Ces changements pourraient refléter une réponse physiologique de la tordeuse à des variations climatiques passées. La variabilité temporelle et spatiale des épidémies de tordeuse ainsi que le mode de propagation à travers les Alpes françaises nous ont conduits à nous interroger sur les dynamiques futures de l’insecte et de son hôte en réponse au réchauffement climatique rapide dans les écosystèmes de haute élévation.

International audience; Termites are social insects that can also be major pests. A well-known problem species is the subterranean termite, Reticulitermes flavipes. It is invasive in France and is thought to have arrived from Louisiana during the 18th century. While the putative source of French populations has been identified, little is known about how the termite spread following its establishment. Here, we examined expansion patterns at different spatial scales in urban areas to clarify how R. flavipes spread in France. Based on our analyses of phylogeography and population genetics, results suggest a scenario of successive introductions into the Charente-Maritime region, on the Atlantic Coast. Two major expansion fronts formed: one that spread toward the northeast and the other toward the southeast. At the regional scale, different spatial and genetic distribution patterns were observed: there was heterogeneity in ile-de-France and aggregation in Centre-Val de Loire. At the local scale, we found that our three focal urban sites each formed a single large colony that contained several secondary reproductives. Our findings represent a second step in efforts to reconstruct termite's invasion dynamics. They also highlight the role that may have been played by the French railway network in transporting termites over long distances.

International audience; 1.The invasive yellow-legged hornet was first discovered in Europe, in south-western France, in 2004. It has since spread very rapidly and has caused significant mortality among honey bees and native entomofauna. It also poses a risk to humans because its sting provokes allergic reactions. The objectives of this study were the following: (i) to disentangle the roles played by human-mediated dispersal and self-mediated dispersal in the species’ rapid range expansion and (ii) to estimate the intensity of control measures in France and determine what needs to be done to slow the hornet's spread and dramatically reduce its population densities. 2.A mathematical model was developed to describe the hornet's potential spread. This model included parameters describing the population growth rate, carrying capacity, self-mediated dispersal, human-mediated dispersal and the efficacy of control measures (i.e. the destruction of detected nests). Model parameters were estimated using 2004–2009 occurrence data for France and the model was then validated using 2013 occurrence data. Several scenarios were tested: human-mediated dispersal was present or absent and control intensity varied. Then, the species’ spread in coming years was simulated (from 2013 to 2020). 3.Despite some uncertainty on the value of the parameters, this model is relatively robust. Human-mediated dispersal may not be necessarily responsible for the hornet's rapid range expansion; the species could spread rapidly on its own. It is likely that, to date, an average of 30–40% of detected nests have been destroyed each year. 4.Increasing the percentage of destroyed nests from 30 to 60% could reduce the species’ spread by 17% and its nest density by 29%. If 95% of nests are destroyed, the species’ spread and nest density could decline by 43% and 53%, respectively. 5.Synthesis and applications. The mathematical model developed in this study shows that human-mediated dispersal of the invasive yellow-legged hornet may not be the only factor explaining the hornet's rapid range expansion and that controlling this invasive pest is still possible. Therefore, there is an urgent need to reduce self-mediated dispersal and to intensify and improve control measures to diminish the species’ impact and prevent its further spread. Control measures could combine the mechanical removal and destruction of individuals or infested materials with biological control techniques.

International audience; Following the detection of a pine wood nematode outbreak, Implementing Decision 2012/535/EU imposes eradication measures for at least four years, mainly consisting of the establishment of: i) clear-cuts with a radius of 500 m around the infested plants and ii) intensive surveillance within a radius varying from 6 to 20 km around the infested zone. To estimate the effectiveness of these measures, a simulation model was developed and calibrated using experimental data specifying the dispersal capabilities of the insect vector Monochamus galloprovincialis. These data were obtained in the laboratory (on a flight mill) and in natura (mark-and-recapture experiments) in the context of the Landes de Gascogne forest (David, 2014 and David et al., 2014), one of the forest areas most exposed to the risk of introduction of the pine wood nematode in France. The simulations that were then carried out under different scenarios (preventive or curative) showed that the clear-cuts currently requested by European and French regulations would not be effective in a landscape configuration of continuous plantations of maritime pine. Indeed, with the recommended radius of 500 m, at best 11% of nematode transmissions by the insect vector would be avoided. Moreover, to obtain a pine wood nematode transmission rate lower than 0.1%, it would be necessary to implement clear-cuts with a radius of 15 - 38 km (Anses, 2015). These simulations, carried out in the context of a continuous forest, should however be supplemented by a scenario involving highly fragmented pine forests. In this regard, it would be interesting to include biological data from Spanish forest managers, as they are directly involved in implementing nematode eradication measures in this type of landscape. Alternative management measures to control the spread of the pine wood nematode were also assessed by the Working Group.

Pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityoccampa (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae) . ICE 2016; XXV International Congress of Entomology

International audience

Pine sawyer beetle, Monochamus galloprovincialis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). ICE 2016; XXV International Congress of Entomology

Les invasions biologiques et les espèces natives en expansion sont deux problématiques en écologie particulièrement importantes dans le contexte des changements globaux. Pour explorer les mécanismes sous‐jacents, prévoir l’évolution future et fournir une aide à la décision, la modélisation est devenue un outil incontournable. Ce mémoire d’HDR illustre les approches de modélisation que j’ai développées jusqu’à ce jour pour répondre à ces enjeux à travers différents modèles biologiques et leurs problématiques associées. Les cas d’études couvrent les étapes successives d’une invasion : les risques d’entrée, d’établissement et d’expansion des espèces. Plus précisément, un premier modèle décrit les risques d’entrée d’espèces invasives en Europe avec l’importation de bois, un second modèle décrit les capacités d’établissement en lien avec les effets Allee, et enfin différents modèles décrivent l’expansion potentielle d’espèces invasives et d’espèces natives en expansion (modèles génériques d’expansion, expansion d’espèces sociales invasives, expansion d’un organisme invasif en association phorétique avec un insecte natif, et espèces natives en expansion en lien avec le changement climatique et les activités humaines). En quantifiant ces risques et en fournissant de nouveaux outils, certains de ces travaux de modélisation ont ainsi contribué à une meilleure gestion des risques dans le domaine de la santé des végétaux. À l’avenir les modèles, pour être plus proches de la réalité et avoir une puissance prédictive plus élevée, devront mieux prendre en compte la variabilité intra‐spécifique des populations, la variabilité du climat, l’hétérogénéité du paysage ainsi que l’interaction entre les espèces et l’efficacité des mesures de lutte., Biological invasions and range expansion of native species are two important issues in ecology in the frame of global change. To explore the underlying mechanisms, to predict future changes and to support decision‐making, modelling has become a major tool. This habilitation dissertation reports the modelling approaches I have used until now to address these issues based on various biological models and associated features. Case studies tackle the successive steps of an invasion: entry, establishment and spread. More precisely, the first model describes the introduction risk of invasive species in Europe with imported wood, the second model describes the establishment capabilities taking into account Allee effects, and then various models describe the potential spread of invasive or native species (generic spread module, range expansion of invasive social insects, range expansion of an invasive organism carried by a native insect species, range expansion of native species in relation with climate change and human activities). By quantifying these risks and providing new tools, some of these models have contributed to a better pest risk management in plant health. In the future, to increase realism and prediction levels, these models should include intra‐specific variability of populations, climate variability, landscape heterogeneity, species interaction and efficacy of control measures.

The range expansion of the pine processionary moth in a changing world: How a well understood multifactorial process could tangle up. ICE 2016; XXV International Congress of Entomology

International audience

International audience; Mountain ranges may delimit the distribution of native species as well as constitute potential barriers to the spread of invasive species. The invasive pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is a severe forest pest inducing pine wilt disease. It is vectored in Europe by a native long-horned beetle, Monochamus galloprovincialis. This study explored the potential of the Pyrenean chain to slow or prevent the natural spread of nematode-infested beetles from the Iberian Peninsula, where the nematode is established and is expanding its range, towards France and the rest of Europe. An analysis of the genetic structure and migration patterns of the beetle populations throughout the Pyrenean mountain range was combined with a spread model simulating the potential movements of nematode-infested beetles across it. The central part of the Pyrenees, which corresponds to the highest elevation zone, was shown to prevent gene flow between the French and Spanish populations of M. galloprovincialis on each side of the mountains. Conversely, strong admixture was detected between populations located on both sides of low elevation hills, and especially at the east and west extremities of the mountain range. Simulations of the spread of nematode-infested beetles under various thresholds of beetle survival and pine wilt disease expression gave results consistent with the variation in genetic make-up, suggesting that western and eastern hillsides may represent corridors favoring natural spread of the nematode from the Iberian Peninsula to France. Simulations also showed that temperature rise due to climate change may significantly reduce the extent of the barrier formed by highest elevations. Our results support the hypothesis that the Pyrenean chain represents a partial barrier to the natural spread of nematode-infested beetles. These results, which have to be considered together with potential human-assisted long-distance spread of the nematode, highlight priority zones for future pest monitoring and management programs. More generally, such an integrated approach could be used to assess the role of mountain chains in the potential spread of other invasive pests.

National audience

National audience

National audience

CAB Accession Number: 20143067439 20143067439; International audience; & Context Some forest insect pests are currently extending their range as a consequence of climate warming. However, in most cases, the evidence is mainly based on correlations and the underlying mechanism is not clearly known. & Aims One of the most severe pests of pine forests in Europe, the pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, is currently expanding its distribution as a result of climate warming and does not occupy entirely its potential habitat. A model describing its spread was devel-oped to simulate its potential range in France under various climate change scenarios. & Methods The spread model was divided into several sub-models to describe the growth, survival and dispersal of the species. The model was validated on the observed change of species distribution, its sensitivity was tested, and spread scenarios were simulated for the future. & Results The model shows that climate warming initiated the species range expansion in France since the early 1990s. The spread is now limited by dispersal capability, but human-mediated dispersal could accelerate the range expansion. & Conclusion Species range expansion is an indicator of climate change. However, time lags can appear due to limited dispersal capabilities, and human-mediated dispersal could create satellite colonies and artificially accelerate the spread.

National audience

International audience

International audience

International audience

International audience; Background: Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed. Methodology/Principal Findings: Direct economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008-2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at (sic)22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014-2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300-800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at (sic)218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of (sic)357 million, while producers experience a (sic)139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped. Conclusions/Significance: Pinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusions.

This paper describes a decision-support scheme (DSS) for mapping the area where economically important loss is likely to occur (the endangered area). It has been designed by the PRATIQUE project to help pest risk analysts address the numerous risk mapping challenges and decide on the most suitable methods to follow. The introduction to the DSS indicates the time and expertise that is needed, the data requirements and the situations when mapping the endangered areas is most useful. The DSS itself has four stages. In stage 1, the key factors that influence the endangered area are identified, the data are assembled and, where appropriate, maps of the key factors are produced listing any significant assumptions. In stage 2, methods for combining these maps to identify the area of potential establishment and the area at highest risk from pest impacts are described, documenting any assumptions and combination rules utilised. When possible and appropriate, Stage 3 can then be followed to show whether economic loss will occur in the area at highest risk and to identify the endangered area. As required, Stage 4, described elsewhere, provides techniques for producing a dynamic picture of the invasion process using a suite of spread models. To illustrate how the DSS functions, a maize pest, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, and a freshwater invasive alien plant, Eichhornia crassipes, have been used as examples.

International audience; Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

identifiant CAB: 20123154699; International audience; Assessing the likelihood and magnitude of spread is one of the cornerstones of pest risk analysis (PRA), and is usually based on qualitative expert judgment. This paper proposes a suite of simple ecological models to support risk assessors who also wish to estimate the rate and extent of spread, e.g. when modelling the dynamics of invasion and the economic impacts that may result. Models are based on simple ecological principles, such as logistic growth, radial range expansion and population growth in combination with dispersal. Different models capture different perspectives of the spread process, being based on pest density or simply presence/absence, and they compare spatially explicit and spatially implicit approaches. A case study on Diabrotica virgifera virgifera is provided for illustration. The suite of models requires further development and testing with the risk assessment community building familiarity before their more general application in PRA.; Déterminer la probabilité et l’ampleur d’une expansion est un point crucial dans les analyses de risque (PRA), pourtant le jugement des experts est souvent qualitatif. Cette publication présente un ensemble de modèles écologiques simples pour aider les experts qui veulent déterminer la vitesse et l’aire d’expansion, notamment pour modéliser la dynamique d’une invasion et les impacts économiques pouvant en résulter. Ces modèles sont basés sur des principes écologiques simples, comme la croissance logistique, l’expansion radiale, et la croissance de la population couplée à la dispersion. Ces modèles capturent sous différents angles le processus d’expansion en se basant sur la densité de population ou bien sur la présence/absence, et d’autre part sur une approche spatiale explicite ou bien implicite. L’expansion de Diabrotica virgifera virgifera est utilisée comme illustration. Avant d’envisager une application courante de ces modèles dans les analyses de risque, il est nécessaire de poursuivre leur développement et de les tester avec la communauté impliquée dans les analyses de risque afin de la familiariser avec ce nouvel outil.

The assessment of the suitability of the climate for pest establishment is an important part of pest risk analysis (PRA). This paper describes the work undertaken by the EU 7th Framework project PRATIQUE (Enhancements of Pest Risk Analysis Techniques) to develop guidance for this component of PRA. Firstly, there is a guide to rating the suitability of the climate in the PRA area using qualitative methods. Secondly, a Decision-support scheme (DSS) has been created to assist analysts in deciding whether to map climatic suitability, and to guide the selection of the most appropriate method from the large number available. The process of selecting a climatic mapping method is based on a review of the pest's climatic responses and distribution. A spreadsheet provides a comparison of the potential problems that can arise, depending on the mapping method and on the amount and quality of available data. Diagrams are provided to help choose the location data category that best represents the possible biases in the known distribution of the pest. A second spreadsheet provides general information on the differences and similarities of each method in terms of categories such as functionality, ease of use and quality assurance. A variety of data, tools and supporting documents are available as appendices to the DSS. All of the tools and guides are freely available online.

International audience

International audience