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This study aims to develop a methodology for identifying predominant pressures on the marine ecosystem, emphasizing the significance of examining these pressures and the necessity for management scenarios. The research focuses on how the Black Sea ecosystemresponds to the combined effects of human pressures, climate change, and policies. An in-depth analysis was conducted on environmental pressures affecting the Romanian Black Sea, highlighting dominant pressures such as physical habitat loss, hydrocarbon introduction, and non-indigenous species invasion. The research employs a novel methodological approach to assess the implications of these pressures under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1 "Taking the Green Road", SSP2 "Middle of the Road", and SSP5 "Taking the Highway". The findings reveal a complex interplay between economic development and environmental conservation, with each pathway presenting distinct outcomes for marine ecosystems. Recent developments, including beach rehabilitation, maritime transport, and oil and gas exploitation, have overshadowed traditional pressures such as nutrient introduction and fishing. The study identifies the increasing vulnerability of critical habitats to anthropogenic pressures, with the rehabilitation of these ecosystems remaining challenging even under reduced pressures. The results underscore the need for adaptive management strategies to enhance the Black Sea ecosystem's sustainability and resilience. The study's insights are important for developing management strategies that address ongoing environmental challenges. This research provides knowledge for policymakers and stakeholders involved in marine management and conservation efforts in the Black Sea region, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of human activities and climate change on marine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine ecosystems are becoming increasingly vulnerable to cumulative anthropogenic effects and pressures. Therefore, various methodological approaches and tools have been designed to apply cumulative impact appraisal schemes and better assess the dynamics and interactions among pressures affecting marine ecosystems. This study aims to apply the Spatial Cumulative Assessment of Impact Risk for Management (SCAIRM) tool for the Black Sea coastal waters considering human activities, pressures, and effects on different ecosystem components coupled with one management scenario development for actual and new emerging sectors. According to the SCAIRM, the primary pressure on the marine ecosystem was identified as introducing or spreading non-indigenous species from shipping. Additionally, when considering cumulative impact, activities related to coastal defense and flood protection, particularly beach nourishment works, were found to have the highest impact. This is due to the cumulative scores associated with the physical loss from permanent alteration or removal of seabed substrates, and temporary or reversible physical disturbances to the seabed. The scenario development indicated that after shipping, oil and gas exploitation is anticipated to become the second-highest risk sector for additional impact in the Romanian Black Sea. Additionally, the increased military activities related to the war in Ukraine present escalating risks that must be considered in EBM strategies. The results assess the possible effects of human activities and the associated pressures to direct management toward achieving sustainability, biodiversity protection, and the marine ecosystem's integrity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improperly used farming systems and agrotechnical practices with ongoing climate change can contribute to the reduction of the level of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks not only in intensively cultivated arable soils but also in grasslands. One of the ways to track changes in the SOC stock is the use of mathematical models. The RothC model was validated at the locality Suchý vrch, which hosts long-term experiments on grassland. The soil type is sandy-loam textured Cambisol. Validation was done for the period 1993 – 2009 on grassland with various applications of mineral and organic fertilisers. Results of validation show that the RothC model appropriately predicts the development of grassland SOCs and can be used in forecasting SOC stock in the future. Five different management scenarios, with carbon input 2.3 to 6.4 t/ha and three climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) of the MPI climate model were used to track the changes of SOC stock on grassland in the period 2009 – 2100. Modelling results of SOC development show, that in the future, a relatively low-temperature increase (RCP 2.6) and a relatively high carbon input into the soil (6.4 t/ha) can ensure moderate carbon sequestration. However, between the low-carbon management scenarios (2.3 and 4.1 t/ha), SOC stocks are continuously decreasing in the RCP 2.6 climate scenario. At a significantly higher temperature (climate scenario RCP 8.5), that is expected in future, it will not be possible to maintain the current level of SOC stock not even at a high carbon input (6.4 t/ha).

Simple Summary: Natural wetlands supply food and shelter for many bird species and offer stopover sites that allow waterbirds to make long migratory journeys. Human impacts and ongoing climate change are however reducing the ability of wetlands to provide such essential services to avian diversity. Therefore, scientists are now forced to consider new approaches to the proactive management of remaining marginal wetlands so as to preserve the associated biodiversity as well. Because regional planning and wetland management are often debatable issues, we argue here that in silico simulation modeling, combined with field surveys and data collection, provides an appropriate methodology to address this matter effectively. Modeling and dynamically simulating the changes expected to the levels of avian diversity as a function of plausible counterfactual and management scenarios provides an informed and scientifically defensible basis for proactive conservation strategies. Such simulations present an opportunity to test numerous different scenarios, exploring their implications for the conservation of avian diversity, thus providing a well-grounded and realistic approach to dealing with inherent uncertainties in wetland management and waterbird conservation. The Sardinian wetlands (Italy) act as stopover sites for many migratory birds along the central eastern Mediterranean bird flyway. These wetlands are now severely threatened by human activities and climate change. Accordingly, we built a simulation framework to predict the effects of several counterfactual and management scenarios on the level of avian diversity in the coastal wetlands of Sardinia. We found that the alpha avian diversity (i.e., the mean number of avian species per wetland) is destined to (a) decrease due to the most likely increase in water salinity, water discharges, and tourism pressure; and (b) halve (from 14.9 to 7.4, with 9 wetlands out of 22 predicted to host only between two and five waterbird species) in the worst possible scenario. However, the results also showed that proper management strategies could prevent and reverse such outcomes. Restrictions on tourism activities, water desalination, prevention of future saltwater intrusions, and the prohibition of water discharges could markedly favor the avian diversity in these wetlands, with an expected increase in the alpha avian diversity from 14.9 to 24.8 (and 10 wetlands out of 22 predicted to host from 29 to 32 waterbird species) in the best possible scenario. The importance of our results could be emphasized in the management plans of these important wetlands, most of which belong to the Natura 2000 network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bobcats (Lynx rufus) were extirpated from many midwestern states in the mid‐1800s owing to habitat loss and overharvesting. Recently, bobcats have recolonized Ohio, USA, and neighboring states and given their furbearer status elsewhere, there is interest in opening a harvest season; however, demographic factors and viability of this population are currently unknown. We developed a spatial population simulation model to assess the long‐term viability of the bobcat population in Ohio in the face of 2 human‐induced factors limiting population growth: potential harvest and road mortality. We combined habitat suitability and road mortality risk data with vital rates for bobcats from Ohio and other populations to simulate possible scenarios for Ohio's population. Our baseline scenario simulations showed no risk of extinction for Ohio's bobcat population in the next 40 years, but population trajectories were lower and exhibited greater uncertainty when we modeled the population with a lower maximum density of animals per cell. At low harvest intensity (αh = 0.05), the bobcat population also exhibits low risk of extinction. When harvest intensity increases (αh = 0.1, 0.15) or when adults (≥2 yr) are targeted by harvest, simulations show declining populations, greater uncertainty in projections, and possible risk of extirpation. Our models indicated that if harvest and road mortality are additive, then the bobcat population could withstand marginal increases in road mortality (αr = 0.1) at low harvest intensity (αh = 0.05). Future increases in road mortality with higher harvest intensity (αh = 0.1, 0.15) were unsustainable. Our results can be used by wildlife managers to assist with decisions on population‐level management. This simulation model can easily be adapted for other large mammals and can be modified to assess a variety of ecological and anthropogenic influences to wildlife populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Planted pine forests are highly abundant communities in the Mediterranean Basin. Being the result of past reforestation, these forests show high species and structural homogeneity. Diversification to conifer-broadleaved mixed forests is recommended to promote adaptation to climate change and increase their resilience to perturbations. Objectives: This study aims at evaluating how these planted pine forests will develop in the future as a result of the combined impacts of management and climate. Methods: We applied a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate different climate scenarios and management strategies designed in cooperation with forest managers to assess their effects on the performance of planted pine forests and their change in terms of forest composition. Results: Climate change scenarios caused a shift in the phenological growth pattern of planted pine forests by reducing forest growth during summer and increasing photosynthetic productivity in spring and fall, particularly under high emission scenarios. Biomass increased through time and more strongly under climate change, but this increase differs among species, resulting in changes of forest types across the landscape. Our results portray natural succession as the main driver of forest change, but intensive management accelerated this process by limiting pine growth and promoting growth of oak species. Conclusions: Our results highlight the importance of active management on planted pine forests to favour mixed and climate-adapted ecosystems in shorter time scales than offered by succession alone. Moreover, our spatially explicit modelling approach helps to identify areas where lack of seed dispersal and/or competitive exclusion prevent natural diversification, providing useful recommendations for interventions. However, the modelling approach has some limitations since it does not consider natural disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This investigation explores the impact of various management practices on nitrate leaching and crop yield in two specific areas in Slovenia. The issue of nitrate leaching from agricultural land is a worldwide threat to drinking water, and despite years of research efforts, universal solutions are still unknown. The two chosen study sites are significant because of their importance for agricultural production and because groundwater aquifers beneath are main sources of drinking water, which makes imposing mitigation measures challenging. One of the areas was reported to be of "bad" status according to the Water Framework Directive criteria, while the other is at risk of reaching this status if nitrate concentrations in groundwater continue to rise. This research used the SWAT model to simulate nitrate leaching and crop yield changes under different agricultural scenarios on different soil types. It aimed to accomplish two objectives: first, to identify parts of the case study areas where the existing combination of soil conditions and agricultural practices enables a high potential for nitrate leaching; second, to identify agricultural practices that decrease nitrate leaching from various soil types while maintaining crop yields in each area. By identifying the most vulnerable locations and the most promising practices, we generated a chart of best management practices for specific soil types as a guide that extension services can use to advise farmers on potential management improvements. The main findings demonstrate that reducing fertilizer application, both organic and inorganic, in areas where the rates exceed crop requirements may not have a significant impact on crop production. However, these reductions often resulted in a noticeable decrease in nitrate exports. The results also showed that soil type is crucially important and should always be considered when evaluating the effects of agricultural management on crop yields and nitrate leaching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays with regard to the climate change issue and also the scarcity of available and usable water, the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources is regarded as one of the critical approaches in water resources management. In this respect, the surface water-groundwater interaction is one of the prominent and fundamental components in conducting appropriate analysis of water resources balance and finally their management. In this paper, the Lenjanat sub-basin considered as a study area that is located in the Ghavkhouni Basin in Iran. The weighting method of GCM models under the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was employed to investigate the precipitation and temperature changes due to climate change and the LARS-WG model was hired to provide the microscale output of GCM models. Investigating the surface water-groundwater interaction was carried out through the connection of WEAP and MODFLOW models. Thereafter, through the usage of climate results from the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and also implementing the management policies in the form of management scenarios in the future, along with the reduction of 20% and 40% in the area under cultivation, the system performance is assessed for the near future. The findings reveal increasing in temperature and precipitation in the future. The rate of surface water-groundwater interaction will be increased in the future under disparate management and climate change scenarios. Moreover, the maximum rate of the surface water-groundwater interaction is observed for the scenario following the current trend and also the scenario of climate change RCP4.5. Based on the outcomes, the higher the river flow and the groundwater abstraction, the more the aquifer drains the river and consequently increases the interaction of surface and groundwater. Therefore, the results indicated that the recharge effect of the river on the aquifer in the study area and on the other hand uncontrolled pumping of groundwater resources, conjunctive management of water resources can reduce the negative effects of groundwater scarcity, but it is necessary to reduce of cultivated areas and cultivation pattern prevented uncontrolled abstraction of groundwater in this sub-basin.

Arid and semiarid areas generally face problems of natural resource degradation. In this paper, two indicators are proposed to characterize the utilization of rainwater: rainwater resource utilization quantity (RRU, mm) and rainwater resource utilization rate (RRUR, dimensionless ratio). A spatiotemporal assessment model (rainwater utilization assessment [RUA] model) for the RRUR and its influencing factors is constructed. The RUA model is based on Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Geographically Temporal Weighted Regression. The Zuli River Basin, located on the Loess Plateau in China, was selected as the study basin. The results show that the annual averages of the RRU and RRUR are 164 mm and 0.44, respectively, in the study basin. The RRU ranged from 71.4 to 243.2 mm, and the RRUR ranged from 0.32 to 0.53 during the evaluation period. Eight explanatory variables were selected, of which the leaf area index (LAI) and rainfall had a significant positive effect on RRUR, but there was spatial and temporal variability in the effects. The forest rehabilitation and crop rotations that can increase the LAI can effectively increase the RRUR, which increased by 0.10 and 0.11, respectively, and the increase in RRU was at least 36.42 mm, with a water volume of 3.85 × 108 m3. The impact of grassland rehabilitation and parallel terracing on the RRUR was small. We found that there is an interval effect and a threshold effect on rainfall utilization in the basin. The interval effect causes the RRUR to fluctuate within a certain range for rainfall intervals of 300–400 or 400–500 mm (Zuli River Basin). Threshold effects can guide the determination of the potential for rainwater utilization in different areas to ensure that the RRUR can be effectively enhanced with management measures. Recommendations for Resource ManagersWe have constructed an assessment model of rainwater resource utilization (RRU) and influencing factors.We have proposed two evaluation indices based on water balance, namely, the RRU quantity and rainwater resource utilization rate (RRUR).The leaf area index of vegetation is the most important influence on rainwater utilization, and the more severe the drought is, the more effective the regulation of water cycle processes by vegetation.The interval effect causes uncertainty in the RRUR for a certain interval of rainfall, with the RRUR fluctuating within a defined range.The threshold effect can guide us in determining the potential for rainwater utilization, and areas where the current RRUR is below the threshold can take management measures to ensure that the RRUR can be effectively increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reef fish assemblages are threatened globally, underscoring the need for data‐driven management to reduce threats and restore populations. Comparing fishery management approaches is aided by a detailed understanding of the key factors controlling species' abundances.The aims of this study were to assess the importance of biophysical factors compared with fishing impacts on the biomass of reef fishes on Florida's Coral Reef and to evaluate the potential effects of common management interventions on fish biomass.Fishing impact was estimated using a fishery‐independent modelling approach and the biomass of the snapper–grouper complex as a proxy for the effects of fishing. Using a separate subset of data from underwater fish surveys, estimated fishing impact was then combined with 18 biophysical variables to model the current biomass of all reef fish species, the snapper–grouper complex, grazing species and species collected for aquaria.Models explained between 51 and 64% of the variance in fish biomass for the fish groups. The strongest predictor of biomass in the snapper–grouper complex was fishing impact (accounting for 25.2% of the explained variance), whereas reef complexity was the strongest predictor for all other groups.High‐resolution maps were produced from the statistical models, including maps of current fish biomass and maps of potential biomass under several management scenarios: a no‐take marine reserve, moderate and extensive coral restoration and the addition of artificial benthic structure. Adding structure had the largest single impact on predicted fish biomass (23–72% increase from current estimated levels). However, beneficial synergies emerged when combining habitat‐based management and fishing closures, with some combinations resulting in a reef‐wide averaged 89% increase in biomass relative to current estimated levels.The results suggest that conservation strategies aimed at protecting and increasing structural reef complexity should be an important part of fishery management discussions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sardinian wetlands (Italy) act as stopover sites for many migratory birds along the central eastern Mediterranean bird flyway. These wetlands are now severely threatened by human activities and climate change. Accordingly, we built a simulation framework to predict the effects of several counterfactual and management scenarios on the level of avian diversity in the coastal wetlands of Sardinia. We found that the alpha avian diversity (i.e., the mean number of avian species per wetland) is destined to (a) decrease due to the most likely increase in water salinity, water discharges, and tourism pressure; and (b) halve (from 14.9 to 7.4, with 9 wetlands out of 22 predicted to host only between two and five waterbird species) in the worst possible scenario. However, the results also showed that proper management strategies could prevent and reverse such outcomes. Restrictions on tourism activities, water desalination, prevention of future saltwater intrusions, and the prohibition of water discharges could markedly favor the avian diversity in these wetlands, with an expected increase in the alpha avian diversity from 14.9 to 24.8 (and 10 wetlands out of 22 predicted to host from 29 to 32 waterbird species) in the best possible scenario. The importance of our results could be emphasized in the management plans of these important wetlands, most of which belong to the Natura 2000 network.

Models provide invaluable visions to decision-makers for basin-scale management of water resources. However, decision-makers have difficulties in directly using these complex models. Water managers are primarily interested in user-friendly features allowing an integration of their judgments into the decision-making process, rather than applying detailed theories and methodologies. This knowledge gap between technical simulation models and policy-makers highlights the urgent need for developing an integrated water resource management decision support system (IWRM-DSS). This paper describes the main aspects of a new IWRM-DSS in which Microsoft Visual Studio under the C# language was employed to integrate the Microsoft SQL server as a database and ArcGIS Engine DLLs for pre/postdata processing for the SWAT and MODFLOW models. Two particular ‘module’ and ‘presentation’ shells are specifically designed for decision-makers to create four different scenarios, namely, ‘climatic’, ‘recharge’, ‘discharge’, and ‘coupled’ and to analyze the results. Decision-makers, without any detailed modeling knowledge and computer skills, can access the data and run models to test different management scenarios in an attractive graphical user interface. The IWRM-DSS, which was applied for the Neishaboor watershed, Iran, reveals that mean annual potential evapotranspiration increased to 8.2%, while runoff and recharge rates are reduced to 35 and 63%, which led to a decline of 13.5 m in mean groundwater level for the 13-year projected period. HIGHLIGHTS Decision-makers have difficulties in directly using complex simulation models.; Decision-makers prefer the integration of their judgments into the decision-making process.; A scenario-based coupled SWAT-MODFLOW Decision Support System was developed.; Decision-makers can test different scenarios without any detailed modeling knowledge.; The DSS was efficient to engage stakeholders in the water resource management process.;

The comprehensive large-scale assessment of future available water resources is crucial for food security in countries dealing with water shortages like Iran. Kerman province, located in the south east of Iran, is an agricultural hub and has vital importance for food security. This study attempts to project the impact of climate change on available water resources of this province and then, by defining different scenarios, to determine the amount of necessary reduction in cultivation areas to achieve water balance over the province. The GFDL-ESM2M climate change model, RCP scenarios, and the CCT (Climate Change Toolkit) were used to project changes in climatic variables, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological simulation. The future period for which forecasts are made is 2020–2050. Based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, the CCT demonstrates good performance in data downscaling. The results show that under all climate change scenarios, most parts of the province are likely to experience an increase in precipitation yet to achieve water balance a 10% decrease in the cultivation area is necessary under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results of the SWAT model show that green water storage in central and western parts of the province is higher than that in other parts. HIGHLIGHTS The study is carried out in a part of the Middle East where the most severe water crises exist.; It tries to evaluate the future situation of the available water of the region under climate change impacts.; It uses the worldwide accepted models, namely SWAT and CCT.; There are few scientific studies on available water in this region accompanied by some policy to reduce the negative impacts.;

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This investigation explores the impact of various management practices on nitrate leaching and crop yield in two specific areas in Slovenia. The issue of nitrate leaching from agricultural land is a worldwide threat to drinking water, and despite years of research efforts, universal solutions are still unknown. The two chosen study sites are significant because of their importance for agricultural production and because groundwater aquifers beneath are main sources of drinking water, which makes imposing mitigation measures challenging. One of the areas was reported to be of “bad” status according to the Water Framework Directive criteria, while the other is at risk of reaching this status if nitrate concentrations in groundwater continue to rise. This research used the SWAT model to simulate nitrate leaching and crop yield changes under different agricultural scenarios on different soil types. It aimed to accomplish two objectives: first, to identify parts of the case study areas where the existing combination of soil conditions and agricultural practices enables a high potential for nitrate leaching; second, to identify agricultural practices that decrease nitrate leaching from various soil types while maintaining crop yields in each area. By identifying the most vulnerable locations and the most promising practices, we generated a chart of best management practices for specific soil types as a guide that extension services can use to advise farmers on potential management improvements. The main findings demonstrate that reducing fertilizer application, both organic and inorganic, in areas where the rates exceed crop requirements may not have a significant impact on crop production. However, these reductions often resulted in a noticeable decrease in nitrate exports. The results also showed that soil type is crucially important and should always be considered when evaluating the effects of agricultural management on crop yields and nitrate leaching.

Irrigation-led farming system intensification and efficient use of ground and surface water resources are currently being championed as a crucial ingredient for achieving food security and reducing poverty in Nepal. The potential scope and sustainability of irrigation interventions under current and future climates however remains poorly understood. Potential adaptation options in Western Nepal were analyzed using bias-corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) data and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The RCM climate change scenario suggested that average annual rainfall will increase by about 4% with occurrence of increased number and intensity of rainfall events in the winter. RCM outputs also suggested that average annual maximum temperature could decrease by 1.4 °C, and average annual minimum temperature may increase by 0.3 °C from 2021 to 2050. Similarly, average monthly streamflow volume could increase by about 65% from March–April, although it could decrease by about 10% in June. Our results highlight the tight hydrological coupling of surface and groundwater. Farmers making use of surface water for irrigation in upstream subbasins may inadvertently cause a decrease in average water availability in downstream subbasins at approximately 14 %, which may result in increased need to abstract groundwater to compensate for deficits. Well-designed irrigated crop rotations that fully utilize both surface and groundwater conversely may increase groundwater levels by an average of 45 mm from 2022 to 2050, suggesting that in particular subbasins the cultivation of two crops a year may not cause long-term groundwater depletion. Modeled crop yield for the winter and spring seasons were however lower under future climate change scenarios, even with sufficient irrigation application. Lower yields were associated with shortened growing periods and high temperature stress. Irrigation intensification appears to be feasible if both surface and groundwater resources are appropriately targeted and rationally used. Conjunctive irrigation planning is required for equitable and year-round irrigation supply as neither the streamflow nor groundwater can provide full and year-round irrigation for intensified cropping systems without causing the degradation of natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China’s coastal areas face serious environmental degradation as a consequence of large-scale economic development. To balance environmental sustainability with economic development, China is currently implementing a strategy of ‘eco-civilization’, with marine protected areas (MPAs) expected to be one approach to achieving sustainable marine ecosystems. Since the 1990s, China has established over 270 MPAs, but their effectiveness remains unknown, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta. This study modified pre-existing frameworks to evaluate the effectiveness of three national MPAs in the Yangtze River Delta. The modified framework includes conservation outcomes and their potential drivers. Drivers consist of – attributes species or ecosystems within the MPA, attributes of the MPA, institutional design principles, and participation. Five scenarios were proposed based on score combinations of the four drivers: proactive, well designed, well governed, interactive, and learning. All three MPAs achieved a satisfactory level of outcomes and most of the drivers for all three MPAs achieved a satisfactory level. Two of the MPAs were categorized into the learning scenario, and the third into the well-designed scenario, indicating that there is still room to improve institutional design principles and public participation. We suggest developing cost and benefit indicators to more deeply understand proportionality among stakeholders. In addition, the role of participation should be clarified and promoted. We recommend regular environmental performance monitoring and assessment to identify problems and optimize management.

Nutrient pollution from wastewater endangers coastal and marine ecosystems and contributes to health risks in many small islands in the Wider Caribbean Region. Identifying promising intervention points for management requires understanding the flows of wastewater and contained nutrients. However, on such islands data about wastewater flows is typically scarce, and knowledge is distributed among various actors and institutions. Additionally the system's complexity is high, as nutrient fate is determined by an interplay of technical, social, environmental, and ecological factors. Using multiple methods, this paper addresses these complexities, focusing on San Andrés Island, Colombia, which is subject to strong population and tourism pressure. Based on interviews with local actors, we develop a conceptual model to map the total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) fate from touristic and domestic sources to sinks in the environment. With a mass balance model that integrates diverse data sources and elicitation from local experts, we quantify TIN pathways taking into account uncertainty with parameter distributions. Based on the model, we estimate that on an average day in the dry season about 56 % of wastewater-derived TIN ends up in the ocean and 44 % in the island's land sinks. Tourists directly contribute about 13 % of TIN, though their indirect contribution is likely much higher. The main pathway of TIN to the ocean is via a centralized sewer network and to the land sink via distributed soak pits. Without additional treatment or nutrient cycling, the potential management scenarios we investigate merely shift pollution issues between environmental compartments. This research underlines the need for a systems perspective on wastewater management for small islands. • Overview of nitrogen pollution pathways on San Andrés Island, Colombia. • Mass balance model includes heterogeneous data from different knowledge sources. • Incorporation of local knowledge through expert elicitation. • Exploration of management scenarios and trade-offs between ocean and land-sinks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic models are useful for projecting population trends, identifying life stages, most important to population dynamics, and investigating the demographic effects of potential management scenarios. We incorporated site‐specific population parameters into stage‐based matrix models to estimate population growth and to assess potential management scenarios for five intensively sampled (>15 years) populations of federally threatened bog turtles (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) in North Carolina, USA. Only two of the five populations modeled were stable or growing under estimated vital rates. Long‐term sampling of bog turtle populations in NC suggests the declining populations in this study share several demographic characteristics with other populations in the region. Elasticity analysis revealed small changes in adult survival rates have the largest effect on population growth rate. These models also highlight that increased survival of egg and juvenile stages can sometimes buffer higher adult mortality and emigration, and reduced survival at multiple life stages can induce population‐level decline. Our results indicate that management scenarios targeting increased recruitment (especially a head‐start scenario) provide increased population growth among all populations, and allowed two of three declining populations to reach stability under current estimated vital rates. Population growth rates will be higher when population augmentation coincides with habitat restoration efforts that increase survival and site fidelity at all life stages. These models emphasize the importance of considering site‐specific dynamics when evaluating conservation interventions for an imperiled long‐lived species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study combined an empirically based simulation with an analysis of the trade-off between structural heterogeneity and stand productivity depending on time, spatial scale, and silvicultural management, whereas volume growth and tree species diversity have been examined in detail, the role of forest structure and its interdependencies with stand productivity has only lately become a stronger research focus. We used the growth simulator SILVA to examine the development of stand structural heterogeneity and its trade-off with stand productivity in age-class versus uneven-aged pure and mixed spruce and beech stands at different spatial scales over 100 years. Those stands were based on typical forest types in Bavaria and were representative of forests in Central Europe. We examined how stand structure and its trade-off with productivity were modified by a multifunctional, a production-oriented, and a set-aside management scenario. The production-oriented management scenario applied to uneven-aged stands led to a reduction in structural heterogeneity per unit of productivity over time. In age-class stands, the production-oriented scenario was able to maintain the initial structural heterogeneity. The structural heterogeneity per unit of productivity increased more strongly with increasing spatial scale in age-class stands compared to uneven-aged stands. Combining forest stand simulation with scenario analyses is an exemplary method for testing the effect of silvicultural management alternatives on forest structure. This approach can later be connected to climate models considering long-term changes in growing conditions and support the planning of multifunctional forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Irrigation-led farming system intensification and efficient use of ground and surface water resources are currently being championed as a crucial ingredient for achieving food security and reducing poverty in Nepal. The potential scope and sustainability of irrigation interventions under current and future climates however remains poorly understood. Potential adaptation options in Western Nepal were analyzed using bias-corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) data and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The RCM climate change scenario suggested that average annual rainfall will increase by about 4% with occurrence of increased number and intensity of rainfall events in the winter. RCM outputs also suggested that average annual maximum temperature could decrease by 1.4 °C, and average annual minimum temperature may increase by 0.3 °C from 2021 to 2050. Similarly, average monthly streamflow volume could increase by about 65% from March–April, although it could decrease by about 10% in June. Our results highlight the tight hydrological coupling of surface and groundwater. Farmers making use of surface water for irrigation in upstream subbasins may inadvertently cause a decrease in average water availability in downstream subbasins at approximately 14%, which may result in increased need to abstract groundwater to compensate for deficits. Well-designed irrigated crop rotations that fully utilize both surface and groundwater conversely may increase groundwater levels by an average of 45 mm from 2022 to 2050, suggesting that in particular subbasins the cultivation of two crops a year may not cause long-term groundwater depletion. Modeled crop yield for the winter and spring seasons were however lower under future climate change scenarios, even with sufficient irrigation application. Lower yields were associated with shortened growing periods and high temperature stress. Irrigation intensification appears to be feasible if both surface and groundwater resources are appropriately targeted and rationally used. Conjunctive irrigation planning is required for equitable and year-round irrigation supply as neither the streamflow nor groundwater can provide full and year-round irrigation for intensified cropping systems without causing the degradation of natural resources.

Despite the protective measures that have been implemented to increase the productivity of meadow birds, populations are still declining in most breeding and wintering areas. We therefore still do not know how large the protective efforts need to be to curb the decline of the meadow bird populations. By taking advantage of monitoring data from the populations of lapwings in the Netherlands (NL) and one region in Germany [Schleswig‐Holstein (SH)], we investigated the demographic drivers responsible for the decline of the populations and evaluated the impact of protective measures. In these populations, some nests are marked with sticks such that they are not destroyed by farming activity. We analyzed the data with integrated population models and show that average demographic rates were similar in the two populations. Retrospective analyses demonstrated that variation in productivity most strongly impacted population dynamics and that its variation was influenced by the local environments. Our results confirmed that low productivity (0.55 and 0.46 fledglings per pairs in SH and NL, respectively) was the main reason for the decline of the lapwing populations. Productivity of 0.76 (SH) and 0.91 (NL) fledglings per pairs would be required to stabilize the populations. The implemented nest protection had a positive effect on nest success, but did not improve chick survival, and consequently the effect on population growth rates remained insufficient. The population growth rate in NL would increase by only 2% if all nests were protected. Our results suggest that protective measures should prioritize the reduction in predation and the improvement of chick habitat by promoting heterogeneous swards combining tall vegetation for hiding and short and open vegetation for foraging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil erosion is one of the most leading environmental and public health problems in the world which dislodges considerable volumes of soil annually. In order to control soil erosion, several soil factors should be taken into account. Regarding the importance of soil properties on erosion occurrence, it is necessary to focus on soil properties. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of physical parameters that consist of sand %, silt %, clay %, SP % and stone % along with hydraulic properties including theta s, theta r, alpha n and Ks (cm/day) on the amount of soil erosion in Emamzadeh watershed. The above-mentioned factors were optimized using response surface methodology. The soil texture in the study area is mostly silty clay loam, and the main soil orders are Entisols and Inceptisols. Moreover, the main land use in the study area is forest–rangeland. The results proved that both physical and hydraulic valuables illustrated a significant effect on all of the independent parameters. The optimized values of different physical parameters were 60.241 for sand, 14 for silt, 41.025 for clay, 58.729% for SP and 3.83% for stone. A theta r of 0.09, theta s of 0.457 alpha of 0.014, n of 1.3 and Ks of 46.01 were found to be optimal values. The results of this study indicated that at optimal studied parameters, the values of the soil erosion before and after application of management scenarios were found to be 11.537 and − 2.253, respectively. Results show that both physical and hydraulic parameters have significant effects at the 1% level on the soil erosion before and after application of management scenarios. The obtained results could assist policy-makers with decisions aimed at minimizing soil erosion in this watershed. In summary, using the simulation–optimization techniques helps to evaluate the effect of management scenarios, then select and apply the best one to minimize the soil erosion outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zayandehroud River Basin has been experiencing a rapid industrial and agricultural development which caused severe water crisis with several environmental and social consequences. This study presents a dynamic model to analyse the interaction of groundwater and surface water resources in the basin by applying various conjunctive management scenarios. Different scenarios for the management of the Zayandehroud River Basin under the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources were evaluated. The water evaluation and planning (WEAP) and the MODFLOW models were used as the planning tool to assess the status of the basin under the designed scenarios and to simulate groundwater resources considering dynamic link between them. The proposed scenarios were based on a demand and supply management approach and accommodate changes in consumption patterns and irrigation efficiency. Finally, the designed scenarios were evaluated based on economic, social, and environmental criteria using the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method. Our analysis indicated that under proper management policies the aquifer withdrawal would reduce from 74% to 62% leading to enhancement of basin sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Appropriate utilization of agricultural land and natural resources, decreased erosion and increased production occurs in watersheds. On the other hand, land use pattern due to increasing human activities on the ground to meet different needs, is changing. Optimization of land use is one of the management methods to achieve stability and reduce soil erosion. In this study, by using linear programming (simplex) and Geographic Information System(GIS), was investigated the land use optimization in three scenario option to: current condition, management condition, and standard condition.Erosion potential by using MPSIAC Model in irrigated land 1.65, dry lands 3.31, pasture 3.64, gardens 1.49 and 3.85 tons per hectare per year was estimated for Chehel-Gazi basin. The results of the sensitivity analysis for tree scenario showed that in the event optimize land use, erosion potential in the current Condition 0.85 percent increased, But in the land management Condition 16.92 percent and in a standard Condition 32 percent decreased. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that changes in the area of pasture all three options have the greatest impact in changing erosion potential of basin.

Invasive Alien Species (IAS) are amongst the most significant drivers of species extinction and ecosystem degradation, causing negative impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being. InvasiBES, a project funded by BiodivERsA-Belmont Forum for 2019–2021, will use data and models across scales, habitats and species to understand and anticipate the multi-faceted impacts of IAS and to provide tools for their management. Using Alien Species Narratives as reference, we will design future intervention scenarios focused on prevention, control and eradication of IAS in Europe and the United States, through a participatory process bringing together the expertise of scientists and stakeholders. We will also adapt current impact assessment protocols to assess both the detrimental and beneficial impacts of IAS on biodiversity and ecosystem services. This information will then be combined with maps of the potential distribution of Invasive Species of Interest in Europe under current and future climate-change scenarios. Likewise, we will anticipate areas under risk of invasion by range-shifting plants of concern in the US. Finally, focusing on three local-scale studies that cover a range of habitats (freshwater, terrestrial and marine), invasive species (plants and animals) and ecosystem services (supporting, provisioning, regulating and cultural), we will use empirical field data to quantify the real-world impacts of IAS on biodiversity and ecosystem services and calculate indicators of ecosystem recovery after the invader is removed. Spatial planning tools (InVEST) will be used to evaluate the costs and benefits of species-specific intervention scenarios at the regional scale. Data, models and maps, developed throughout the project, will serve to build scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services that are relevant to underpin management of IAS at multiple scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: In the Andalusia region (Spain), olive grove agro-systems cover a wide area, forming social-ecological landscapes. Recent socioeconomic changes have increased the vulnerability of these landscapes, resulting in the abandonment and intensification of farms. The provision of the main ecosystem services of these landscapes have thus been degraded. Objectives: To analyse the sustainability of an olive grove social-ecological landscape in Andalusia. Specifically, to develop a quantitative model proposing land planning and management scenarios, considering abandonment, production and economic benefits of olive crops in different conditions of erosion and management. Methods: We applied a dynamic model using agronomic and economic data, to evaluate different types of olive management. We considered different levels of erosion, the loss of production related to this erosion, and useful life spans for each type of management. We simulated scenarios for the long-term assessment of dynamics of crops, abandonment rate, production and benefits. Results: (a) There was a loss of productive lands and benefits in the medium term in the more intensive crops. (b) Scenarios that partially incorporated ecological management proved to be more sustainable without economic subsidies. (c) The spatial combination of integrated, intensive and ecological plots was sustainable, and was well balanced from an economic, productive and ecological point of view. Conclusions: Scenarios that partially incorporate ecological management allowed the best economic and environmental balance. However, to ensure the sustainability of olive landscapes, farmers should be financially rewarded for their role in the conservation of ecosystem services through landscape stewardship and direct environmental payments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest ecosystems are an important anthropogenic pillar to human wellbeing, providing a multitude of ecosystem services. In Mediterranean countries, where climate change effects are exponentially increasing, the value of the forest ecosystem services is even higher and their preservation is more crucial. However, the biophysical and economic value of such services is usually not observable due to their non-marketable characteristics, leading to their underestimation by decision-makers. This paper aims to guide decision-making through a set of new management scenarios based on ecosystem services’ values and their spatial distribution. It is a cumulative multidisciplinary study based on biophysical models results, economically valued and implemented using the geographic information system (GIS) to analyze spatial data. The investigation was based on a biophysical and economic valuation of cork, grazing, carbon sequestration and sediment retention as a selection of ecosystem services provided by cork oak forest (Ain Snoussi, Tunisia). The valuation was made for the actual situation and two management scenarios (density decrease and afforestation of the shrub land), with emphasis on their spatial distribution as a basis to new management. The total economic value (TEV) of the investigated services provided by Ain Snoussi forest (3787 ha) was €0.55 million/year corresponding to €194/ha/year. The assessment of two different scenarios based on the land cover changes showed that the afforestation scenario provided the highest TEV with €0.68 million/year and an average of €217/ha, while the density decrease scenario provided €0.54 million/year and an average of €191/ha. Such results may orient decision-makers about the impact new management may have, however they should be applied with caution and wariness due to the importance of the spatial dimension in this study.

The application of groundwater resources in Punjab, Pakistan to meet the crop water requirements is increasing rapidly due to constrained surface water supplies. However, the abundant abstraction of groundwater has created serious negative concerns in terms of lowering water table. Thus the sustainability of regional groundwater resources depends upon its proficient management through groundwater modeling technique. Therefore, a research was accomplished to quantify the groundwater pumping and to identify the groundwater depletion areas using MODFLOW model. Three pumping scenarios were developed up to year 2030: such as Scenario-I (Maintaining the current pumping rate for the study period); Scenario-II (Increase in pumping rate according to the historical trend); and Scenario-III (Adjusted canal water supplies and groundwater patterns). The results of Scenario-I indicated that the groundwater level would decline up to 14m for the study period. Scenario-II results showed maximum decline of groundwater level, which would be 18m up to year 2030. The adjusted canal and groundwater supplies among upper and middle part of the study area in Scenario-III, which will recover the groundwater by 2-3m in the middle part of the study area, gave a good management strategy. So, in lower and middle part of study area, groundwater should be artificially recharged and more canal should be supplied water to avoid depletion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrodynamics and water quality of Ilam reservoir, consisting of three main inlet branches and two outlets, was simulated with the CE-QUAL-W2 model. After calibrating and verifying the numerical model, effects of various management scenarios (selective withdrawal, controlling water inflow, and their combinations) were investigated on thermal stratification and water quality. The total reduction of nutrient loads derived from the Chaviz and Ema rivers decreased the total phosphorus concentration. The chlorophyll a concentration of this scenario increased less than in other scenarios. Variation of the withdrawal elevation from the surface to the bottom significantly facilitated the heat conduction of the water column, therefore, the thermal and dissolved oxygen stratification was weakened. The best management scenario was a combination of water withdrawal from the bottom and surface and total reduction of nutrient loads derived from Chaviz and Ema rivers because of improving eutrophication, thermal, and dissolved oxygen stratification in Ilam reservoir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important current issues in the management of lakes and reservoirs is the prediction of global climate change effects to determine appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions. In this paper we analyse whether management actions can limit the effects of climate change on water temperatures in a reservoir. For this, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir of Bimont (Provence region, France) in the medium term (2036-2065) and in the long term (2066-2095) using regionalised projections by the model CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 under the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Water temperature projections were compared to simulations for the reference period 1993-2013, the longest period for which we had year-long data for both hydrology and meteorology. We calibrated the model using profile measurements for the period 2010-2011 and we carried an extensive validation and assessment of model performance. In fact, we validated the model using profile measurements for 2012-2014, obtaining a root mean square error of 1.08°C and mean bias of -0.11°C, and we assured the consistency of model simulations in the long term by comparing simulated surface temperature to satellite measurements for 1999-2013. We assessed the effect of the use of synthetic input data instead of measured input data by comparing simulations made using both kinds of data for the reference period. Using synthetic data resulted in slightly lower (-0.3°C) average and maximum epilimnion temperatures, a somewhat deeper thermocline, and slightly higher evaporation (+7%). To investigate the effect of different management strategies, we considered three management scenarios: i) bottom outlet and present water level; ii) bottom outlet and elevated water level; and iii) surface outlet and elevated water level. According to the simulations, the reservoir of Bimont will have a low rate of warming of the epilimnion of 0.009-0.024°C·yr-1, but a rapid hypolimnion warming of 0.013- 0.028°C·yr-1. The increase in surface temperatures will augment evaporation. However, the length of the stratification period and the thermocline depth are not expected to change. Elevating the water level and using a surface outlet in the reservoir of Bimont, would result in reductions of surface temperature of a similar magnitude as the expected increase because of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gaza coastal aquifer (GCA) is the most precious natural source where it is the only source of water for different uses. Groundwater crisis in Gaza includes two major folds: shortage of water supply and contamination. The extraction of groundwater currently exceeds the aquifer recharge rate. As a result, the groundwater level is falling continuously leading severely deterioration of GCA. The main objective of this study is to analyze and evaluate the current and proposed water resources management plans and their effect on the water level of GCA. In this respect, the available quantities of rainfall that could be harvested and infiltrated from different types of land-use based on existing and planned situations are studied using GIS tool and numerical models for GCA using V-MODFLOW environment for simulating four scenarios: (i) existing management practice (no action scenario), (ii) proposed Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) stormwater infiltration plan, (iii) proposed Gaza Emergency Technical Assistance Program (GETAP) interventions, and (iv) combination between second and third scenarios. The management scenarios were tested with the calibrated flow model for the target period between 2016 and 2040. The simulation results of existing management practice scenario show that there are several depression zones in Gaza Strip; in southern part from − 18 to − 24 m MSL in 2020 and 2040, in the northern part from − 7 to − 12 m MSL in 2020 and 2040, and in the middle regions experienced a small decline in groundwater level. The simulation results of proposed PWA scenario indicate similar depression zones as per first scenario but with good enhancement of water level, − 17 to − 18 m MSL in the southern part and − 3 to − 6 m MSL in the northern part in 2020 and 2040, respectively. The simulation results of GETAP intervention scenario show a positive impact on groundwater level. The results of fourth scenario show good enhancement of water level, in which the water level in the northern part ranges from + 3 to + 6 m MSL in 2020 and 2040, while in the south part ranges from − 15 to + 4 MSL in 2020 and 2040. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important current issues in the management of lakes and reservoirs is the prediction of global climate change effects to determine appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions. In this paper we analyse whether management actions can limit the effects of climate change on water temperatures in a reservoir. For this, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir of Bimont (Provence region, France) in the medium term (2036-2065) and in the long term (2066-2095) using regionalised projections by the model CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 under the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Water temperature projections were compared to simulations for the reference period 1993-2013, the longest period for which we had year-long data for both hydrology and meteorology. We calibrated the model using profile measurements for the period 2010-2011 and we carried an extensive validation and assessment of model performance. In fact, we validated the model using profile measurements for 2012-2014, obtaining a root mean square error of 1.08°C and mean bias of -0.11°C, and we assured the consistency of model simulations in the long term by comparing simulated surface temperature to satellite measurements for 1999-2013. We assessed the effect using synthetic input data instead of measured input data by comparing simulations made using both kinds of data for the reference period. Using synthetic data resulted in slightly lower (-0.3°C) average and maximum epilimnion temperatures, a somewhat deeper thermocline, and slightly higher evaporation (+7%). To investigate the effect of different management strategies, we considered three management scenarios: i) bottom outlet and present water level; ii) bottom outlet and elevated water level; and iii) surface outlet and elevated water level. According to the simulations, the reservoir of Bimont will have a low rate of warming of the epilimnion of 0.009-0.024 °C·yr-1, but a rapid hypolimnion warming of 0.013-0.028°C·yr-1. The increase in surface temperatures will augment evaporation. However, the length of the stratification period and the thermocline depth are not expected to change. Elevating the water level and using a surface outlet in the reservoir of Bimont, would result in reductions of surface temperature of a similar magnitude as the expected increase because of climate change.

This contribution addresses both the role of geographical information in participatory research of coastal zones, and its potential to bridge the gap between research and coastal zone management. Over a one year period, heterogeneous data (spatial, temporal, qualitative and quantitative) were obtained which included the process of interviews, storing in a spatio-temporal database. The GIS (Geographic Information System) produced temporal snapshots of daily human activity patterns allowing it to map, identify and quantify potential space-time conflicts between activities. It was furthermore used to facilitate the exchange of ideas and knowledge at various levels: by mapping, simulation, GIS analysis and data collection. Results indicated that both captured data and the participatory workshop added real value to management and therefore it was deemed well managed by stakeholders. To incorporate a dynamic GIS would enhance pro-active integrated management by opening the path for better discussions whilst permitting management simulated scenarios.

This study has developed and applied a planning support system (PSS) – a tool for planners to analyze and choose the best policy instrument in order to adapt to climate change in the Qazvin irrigation and drainage network, located in the central part of Iran that is mainly supplied by the Taleghan reservoir. A comprehensive weather generator was developed that was capable of regenerating statistical characteristics and linear correlation between neighboring stations. After downscaling monthly outputs from General Circulation Models (GCMs) using the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation method, the weather generator was used to generate daily time series for the base case and projected climate change scenarios. This study simulated the Taleghan reservoir daily inflow under projected climate change scenarios using the data fusion method where outputs from the most representative Artificial Neural Networks and Hammerstein–Wiener models were “fused” to simulate the reservoir daily inflow. Results showed a decrease in mean daily inflow in almost all months. Biophysical input coefficients were estimated using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop models under all climate scenarios. The projected production of all studied crops can vary between 86% and 122% of the potential production under the base-case scenario. In addition, it was revealed that the net irrigation requirement for crops will decrease by 12% on an average. The main goal of the PSS was to maximize the total net income for the region. It can be concluded that reducing bank loan interest rate and setting two different water prices for surface and pressurized irrigation systems can be seen as the best management practices in the region.

Appropriate utilization of agricultural land and natural resources decreases erosion and increases production in watersheds. On the other hand, land use pattern is changing due to increasing human activities on the ground to meet their different needs. Optimization of land use is one of the management methods to achieve stability and reduce soil erosion. In this study, using linear programming (simplex) and Geographic Information System (GIS), we investigated the land use optimization in three scenaris: current condition, management condition, and standard condition. Erosion potential was estimated using MPSIAC Model in irrigated land 1.65, dry lands 3.31, pasture 3.64, gardens 1.49 and 3.85 tons per hectare per year for Chehel-Gazi basin. The results of the sensitivity analysis of the tree scenarios showed that in the case of land use optimization, erosion potential increases for 0.85 percent under the current condition, 16.92 percent under the land management condition and 32 percent under standard conditions. The results of sensitivity analysis in all three options showed that changes in the area of pasture have the greatest impact on changing erosion potential of basin [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In strategic end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment (EoL EEE) management, it has become important to not only avoid the negative environmental impacts but also enhance the positive effects of secondary resource utilization. This is especially true in emerging countries such as China, where medium- to long-term increases in the amount of EoL EEE generation are projected. This study aims to assess the resource availability potential for EoL EEE recycling based on penetration scenarios for formal and/or informal treatment options in China. We categorized substances contained in EoL television sets and personal computers into environmental, resource, and economic aspects under consideration of product transitions. Barium and copper have a high negative potential impact on human health and/or the ecosystem. Focusing on metals with a high resource potential, the resource availability is assessed under different treatment options using characterization factors identified through a life-cycle impact assessment method, the ReCiPe 2008. The results suggest that copper and lead recycling could alleviate the increase in mining costs of resource utilization. Scenario analysis for penetration of formal and informal recycling options indicated that the difference in the alleviated mining costs between the status quo and short-term transition projections until 2030 corresponds to 2.1-2.4 billion dollars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coupled regional simulation model, and the transport and reaction simulation engine were recently adapted to simulate ecology, specifically Typha domingensis (Cattail) dynamics in the Everglades. While Cattail is a native Everglades species, it has become invasive over the years due to an altered habitat over the last few decades, taking over historically Cladium jamaicense (Sawgrass) areas. Two models of different levels of algorithmic complexity were developed in previous studies, and are used here to determine the impact of various management decisions on the average Cattail density within Water Conservation Area 2A in the Everglades. A Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to test the importance of these management scenarios, as well as the effectiveness of using zonal statistics. Management scenarios included high, medium and low initial water depths, soil phosphorus concentrations, initial Cattail and Sawgrass densities, as well as annually alternating water depths and soil phosphorus concentrations, and a steadily decreasing soil phosphorus concentration. Analysis suggests that zonal statistics are good indicators of regional trends, and that high soil phosphorus concentration is a pre-requisite for expansive Cattail growth. It is a complex task to manage Cattail expansion in this region, requiring the close management and monitoring of water depth and soil phosphorus concentration, and possibly other factors not considered in the model complexities. However, this modeling framework with user-definable complexities and management scenarios, can be considered a useful tool in analyzing many more alternatives, which could be used to aid management decisions in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The harvesting of bait through digging in coastal mudflats is practiced for recreational and commercial purposes in European coastal systems including the Ria de Aveiro coastal lagoon on the northwest Atlantic coast of Portugal. The scale of harvesting in the Ria de Aveiro has recently increased due to the current economic climate in Portugal, with targeting of the polychaete, Diopatra neapolitana species or “casulo” as it is widely known in the Aveiro region. The national authorities have attempted to control casulo digging by issuing a regulation (Ordinance) in 2014 on the maximum daily catch limit to be caught by each individual. The daily catch limit is intended to represent the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) for casulo beyond which overfishing will occur. The monitoring of the regulatory measures is expected to be conducted through on-site inspections in the digging areas. However, weak law enforcement was noticed, while there is also controversy over the daily catch limit (quota) stipulated by the Ordinance. To this end, the current study attempted to assess digging activities through remote monitoring and random inspections for a better policy enforcement of the national regulation. In addition, different harvesting scenarios were employed through a simplified bioeconomic model to attribute the current and future harvesting trends of bait digging in Aveiro coastal lagoon. The study findings indicate that remote monitoring coupled with some onsite interviews could be a more effective approach for the implementation of the current bait digging policy. Further, the results point to a distinctive discrepancy between the daily catch amount (MSY) introduced by the national legislation and the study findings which should be further scrutinized. The diggers seem to have reached the sustainable harvest identified by the present research. The current economic hardship in Portugal and the low profitability in similar employment sectors will possibly attract more diggers and increase harvesting in the near future. An increased harvest would likely trigger overfishing of D. neapolitana with unknown consequences for the population of the species as well as the aquatic ecosystem. The socio-economic and environmental effects are yet to be further clarified with more detailed data and advanced modeling techniques to ensure the sustainability of the activity.

Having identified all the dominant factors and having puttogether a mosaic of all the factors resulting from a ship 's voyage,as well as a number of differently dimensioned criteria, theharmfulness evaluation method for water ballast managementon board has been elaborated. By careful analysis of the impactfactors to which status elements are adjoined, by the assignmentof harmfulness levels to the status elements, by determiningdifficulty factor values, by introduction of treatment methodsi.e. exchange of water ballast, certain characteristic managementscenarios according to ship type are developed. Cumulativescenarios provide insight into the total harmfulness ofwater ballast management. The introduction of a comprehensiveapproach results in the development of different scenariosapplicable to all ships. The established harmfulness evaluationmethod for water ballast management is applicable to all shiptypes, and it has been tested on various types of ships that weredischarging ballast in various ports worldwide.

• We analyzed how the number of labor inspectors relates to occupational accidents. • Territorial distribution of labor inspectors and work injuries in Ecuador is described. • Four management scenarios emerge according to injuries incidence and inspector rates. • Management actions and strategies are proposed to promote occupational safety and health. The role of labor inspectors is to monitor the correct application of occupational health and safety regulations. This function can have preventive effects on the occurrence of accidents at work. To analyze this possible relationship, this study describes the evolution of labor inspectors' number and geographical distribution and the occurrence of work accidents in Ecuador over five years (2015–2019). The results show that the number of accidents for every 10,000 workers has decreased while the number of inspectors has remained stable. In addition, contrary to expectations, the results indicate that, in general, the number of inspectors is not associated with the number of accidents, except in 2019, in which this relationship was positive, suggesting that other factors external to the inspection may influence the occurrence of accidents such as the productive sector or the size of the company. In addition, the country's provinces were classified into quadrants according to the work accident incidence (high-low) and the number of inspectors (high-low), allowing the analysis of common characteristics of each quadrant. Finally, practical implications are classified into three management scenarios about the inspection activity, and suggestions for future research are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a feature of climate that can occur in virtually all climates. Therefore, it is an inevitable global but site-specific phenomenon which requires tools to predict and strategies and options to cope with it. In this research, the ability and effectiveness of the Bayesian Decision Networks (BDNs) approach in decision-making and evaluating drought management options for rainfed wheat production in the eastern region of Golestan Province, Iran are demonstrated. The results revealed that during drought conditions, the Koohdasht cultivar had higher yield than other cultivars of wheat. Two management scenarios have been specified for the forecasted period on the basis of wheat cultivars adopted in the region. The results of scenario analysis with a BDN model indicate that the probability of low, medium and high yield levels in scenario 2 (Koohdasht 70%, Zagros 20% and the other cultivars 10%) has a better status compared with scenario 1 (current condition). The paired t- test indicates that there is a significant difference between the two scenarios for wheat yield in low and medium states (P<0.05). Adopting appropriate cultivars in the region with favourable yield and adaptability to drought conditions proved to be an effective management action. The BDN approach implemented in this research serves as a valuable tool to represent the system as a whole, to integrate outputs from models and expert judgment, to evaluate the outcomes necessary for decision-making and to communicate uncertainty of the parameters in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work addresses the effects of the construction of a reservoir 19 km from the mouth on the dynamics of the Guadalfeo delta (southern Spain), a Mediterranean delta in a semiarid and high-mountain basin. The sediment volume transported as bed load and accumulated in the delta was estimated under two scenarios by means of a calibrated hydrological model: a managed scenario, considering the flows drained by the dam, and an unmanaged scenario, considering the absence of such infrastructure. Bathymetric and topographic measurements were analyzed and correlated with the fluvial and maritime forcing agents. Results indicate that the reservoir has significantly modified the dynamics downstream: the coast has lost almost 0.3 hm3 of sediments since the entry into operation of the dam, generating a 1.4 km coastline retreat around the mouth, with a maximum retreat of 87 m (92% of the initial). The beach profile decreased by up to 820 m2, whereas the average decrease around the mouth was equal to 214 m2. Under unmanaged conditions, more than 2 hm3 of bed load would have reached the coast. Based on the results, three new management scenarios of flows drained by the dam, in combination with bypassed sediment from the reservoir, were proposed to prevent more severe consequences in the delta and the silting of the reservoir. The proposed methodology for new management scenarios can be extended to other worldwide deltas, especially to those in semiarid and Mediterranean basins, and it represents an advanced tool for decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]