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Together with the latent heat stored in glacial ice sheets, the ocean heat uptake carries the lion's share of glacial–interglacial changes in the planetary heat content, but little direct information on the global mean ocean temperature (MOT) is available to constrain the ocean temperature response to glacial–interglacial climate perturbations. Using ratios of noble gases and molecular nitrogen trapped in the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core, we are able to reconstruct MOT for peak glacial and interglacial conditions during the last 700 000 years and explore the differences between these extrema. To this end, we have to correct the noble gas ratios for gas transport effects in the firn column and gas loss fractionation processes of the samples after ice core retrieval using the full elemental matrix of N2, Ar, Kr, and Xe in the ice and their individual isotopic ratios. The reconstructed MOT in peak glacials is consistently about 3.3 ± 0.4 ∘C cooler compared to the Holocene. Lukewarm interglacials before the Mid-Brunhes Event 450 kyr ago are characterized by 1.6 ± 0.4 ∘C lower MOT than the Holocene; thus, glacial–interglacial amplitudes were only about 50 % of those after the Mid-Brunhes Event, in line with the reduced radiative forcing by lower greenhouse gas concentrations and their Earth system feedbacks. Moreover, we find significantly increased MOTs at the onset of Marine Isotope Stage 5.5 and 9.3, which are coeval with CO2 and CH4 overshoots at that time. We link these CO2 and CH4 overshoots to a resumption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is also the starting point of the release of heat previously accumulated in the ocean during times of reduced overturning.

We present a climatology of the near-sea-surface temperature (NSST) anomaly and the sea-ice extent during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 23 000–19 000 years before present) mapped on a global regular 1∘×1∘ grid. It is an extension of the Glacial Atlantic Ocean Mapping (GLAMAP) reconstruction of the Atlantic NSST based on the faunal and floral assemblage data of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) project and several recent estimates of the LGM sea-ice extent. Such a gridded climatology is highly useful for the visualization of the LGM climate, calculation of global and regional NSST averages, and estimation of the equilibrium climate sensitivity, as well as a boundary condition for atmospheric general circulation models. The gridding of the sparse NSST reconstruction was done in an optimal way using the Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis (DIVA) software, which takes into account the uncertainty in the reconstruction and includes the calculation of an error field. The resulting Glacial Ocean Map (GLOMAP) confirms the previous findings by the MARGO project regarding longitudinal and meridional NSST differences that were greater than today in all oceans. Taken at face value, the estimated global and tropical cooling would imply an equilibrium climate sensitivity at the lower end of the currently accepted range. However, because of anticipated changes in the seasonality and thermal structure of the upper ocean during the LGM as well as uneven spatial sampling, the estimated cooling and implied climate sensitivity are likely to be biased towards lower values.

Eastern boundary upwellings (EBUs) are some of the key loci of biogenic silica (opal) burial in the modern ocean, representing important productive coastal systems that extraordinarily contribute to marine organic carbon fixation. The Benguela upwelling system (BUS), in the low-latitude south-eastern Atlantic, is one of the major EBUs and is under the direct influence of nutrient-rich Southern Ocean waters. Quantification of past changes in diatom productivity through time, in response to late Quaternary climatic change, feeds into our understanding of the sensitivity of EBUs to future climatic perturbations. Existing sediment archives of silica cycling include opal burial fluxes, diatom assemblages, and opaline silicon isotopic variations (denoted by δ30Si). Burial fluxes and siliceous assemblages are limited to recording the remains reaching the sediment (i.e. export), and δ30Si variations are complicated by species-specific influences and seasonality. Here, we present the first combined δ30Si record of two large centric diatoms from the BUS, encompassing full glacial conditions to the Holocene. In addition to export, our new data allow us to reconstruct the utilization of dissolved Si in surface waters in an area with strong input from Southern Ocean waters. Our new archives show that there was enhanced upwelling of Southern Ocean Si-rich water accompanied by strong silicic acid utilization by coastal dwelling diatoms during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3; 60–40 ka). This pulse of strong silicic acid utilization was followed by a weakening of upwelling and coastal diatom Si utilization into MIS2, before an increase in pelagic diatom Si utilization across the deglaciation. We combine our findings with mass balance model experiments to show that changes in surface water silica cycling through time are a function of both upwelling intensity and utilization changes, illustrating the sensitivity of EBUs to climatic change on glacial–interglacial scales.

The middle Miocene climate transition ∼ 14 Ma marks a fundamental step towards the current “ice-house” climate, with a ∼ 1 ‰ δ18O increase and a ∼ 1 ‰ transient δ13C rise in the deep ocean, indicating rapid expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet associated with a change in the operation of the global carbon cycle. The variation of atmospheric CO2 across the carbon-cycle perturbation has been intensely debated as proxy records of pCO2 for this time interval are sparse and partly contradictory. Using boron isotopes (δ11B) in planktonic foraminifers from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1092 in the South Atlantic, we show that long-term pCO2 varied at 402 kyr periodicity between ∼ 14.3 and 13.2 Ma and follows the global δ13C variation remarkably well. This suggests a close link to precessional insolation forcing modulated by eccentricity, which governs the monsoon and hence weathering intensity, with enhanced weathering and decreasing pCO2 at high eccentricity and vice versa. The ∼ 50 kyr lag of δ13C and pCO2 behind eccentricity in our records may be related to the slow response of weathering to orbital forcing. A pCO2 drop of ∼ 200 µatm before 13.9 Ma may have facilitated the inception of ice-sheet expansion on Antarctica, which accentuated monsoon-driven carbon cycle changes through a major sea-level fall, invigorated deep-water ventilation, and shelf-to-basin shift of carbonate burial. The temporary rise in pCO2 following Antarctic glaciation would have acted as a negative feedback on the progressing glaciation and helped to stabilize the climate system on its way to the late Cenozoic ice-house world.

Numerical climate simulations produce vast amounts of high-resolution data. This poses new challenges to the palaeoclimate community – and indeed to the broader climate community – in how to efficiently process and interpret model output. The palaeoclimate community also faces the additional challenge of having to characterise and compare a much broader range of climates than encountered in other subfields of climate science. Here we propose an analysis framework, grounded in dynamical systems theory, which may contribute to overcoming these challenges. The framework enables the characterisation of the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics. These may be applied to individual climate variables or to several variables at once, and they can diagnose properties such as persistence, active number of degrees of freedom and coupling. Crucially, the metrics provide information on instantaneous states of the chosen variable(s). To illustrate the framework's applicability, we analyse three numerical simulations of mid-Holocene climates over North Africa under different boundary conditions. We find that the three simulations produce climate systems with different dynamical properties, such as persistence of the spatial precipitation patterns and coupling between precipitation and large-scale sea level pressure patterns, which are reflected in the dynamical systems metrics. We conclude that the dynamical systems framework holds significant potential for analysing palaeoclimate simulations. At the same time, an appraisal of the framework's limitations suggests that it should be viewed as a complement to more conventional analyses, rather than as a wholesale substitute.

We present an ensemble of last glacial inception (LGI) simulations for the Northern Hemisphere that captures a significant fraction of inferred ice volume changes within proxy uncertainties. This ensemble was performed with LCice 1.0, a coupled ice sheet and climate model, varying parameters of both climate and ice sheet components, as well as the coupling between them. Certain characteristics of the spatiotemporal pattern of ice growth and subsequent retreat in both North America (NA) and Eurasia (EA) are sensitive to parameter changes while others are not. We find that the initial inception of ice over NA and EA is best characterized by the nucleation of ice at high-latitude and high-elevation sites. Subsequent spreading and merger along with large-scale conversion of snowfields dominate in different sectors. The latter plays an important role in the merging of eastern and western ice regions in NA. The inception peak ice volume in the ensemble occurs approximately at 111 ka and therefore lags the summer 60∘ N insolation minimum by more than 3 kyr. Ice volumes consistently peak earlier over EA than NA. The inception peak in North America is characterized by a merged Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheet, with the Davis Strait covered in ice in ∼80 % of simulations. Ice also bridges Greenland and Iceland in all runs by 114 ka and therefore blocks the Denmark Strait. This latter feature would thereby divert the East Greenland Current and Denmark Strait overflow with a potentially significant impact on ocean circulation. The Eurasian ice sheet at its inception peak varies across ensemble runs between a continuous ice sheet and multiple smaller ice caps. In both continents, the colder high latitudes (i.e. Ellesmere and Svalbard) tend to grow ice through the entire simulation (to 102 ka), while lower latitudes lose ice after ∼110 ka. We find temperature decreases over the initial phases of the inception lead to the expansion of NA ice sheet area and that subsequent precipitation increases contribute to its thickening. EA ice sheet area also expands with decreasing temperatures, but sea ice limits any increases in precipitation, leading to an earlier retreat away from the EA maximum ice sheet volume. We also examine the extent to which the capture of both LGI ice growth and retreat constrains the coupled ice–climate model sensitivity to changing atmospheric pCO2. The 55-member sub-ensemble that meets our criteria for “acceptable” ice growth and retreat has an equilibrium climate sensitivity lower bound that is 0.3 ∘C higher than that of the full ensemble. This suggests some potential value of fully coupled ice–climate modelling of the last glacial inception to constrain future climate change.

Plastics i.e. polymers are long chains or networks of monomer molecules which can be fabricated in desired shape, colour and specifications. The multi-functionality of this macromolecule has made it an integral part of society. Due to being given immense importance in various industrial sectors, like information technology, electrical, as well as electronics industries, intelligent, smart and advanced packaging systems, agriculture, automobiles, biomedical applications, etc., they are quite indispensable for the modern generation. The huge demand and high frequency usage have alarmed a number of countries littered with plastic wastes which need to be attended immediately. The effects of plastic solid waste on environmental living and non-living components are noticeable in the ever-increasing level of plastic pollution both on land and in the oceans globally. This paper compiles the various aspects and prospects of disposal methods like landfilling, recycling, progress in recovery and management of plastic waste (i.e. primary, secondary, tertiary and quaternary) in order to minimize its huge volumes. The depolymerisation process is the key technology behind its success which provides a high yield of product and a minimal amount of waste. Few innovative methods other than recycling published by different researchers are also discussed in this paper.

Marine fronts delineate the boundary between distinct water masses and, through the advection of nutrients, are important facilitators of regional productivity and biodiversity. As the modern climate continues to change, the migration of frontal zones is evident, but a lack of information about their status prior to instrumental records hinders future projections. Here, we combine data from lipid biomarkers (archaeal isoprenoid glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraethers and algal highly branched isoprenoids) with planktic and benthic foraminifera assemblages to detail the biological response of the marine Arctic and polar front migrations on the North Iceland Shelf (NIS) over the last 8 kyr. This multi-proxy approach enables us to quantify the thermal structure relating to Arctic and polar front migration and test how this influences the corresponding changes in local pelagic productivity. Our data show that following an interval of Atlantic water influence, the Arctic front and its associated high pelagic productivity migrated southeastward to the NIS by ∼6.1 ka. Following a subsequent trend in regional cooling, Polar Water from the East Greenland Current and the associated polar front spread onto the NIS by ∼3.8 ka, greatly diminishing local algal productivity through the Little Ice Age. Within the last century, the Arctic and polar fronts have moved northward back to their current positions relative to the NIS and helped stimulate the productivity that partially supports Iceland's economy. Our Holocene records from the NIS provide analogues for how the current frontal configuration and the productivity that it supports may change as global temperatures continue to rise.

The increased number of hospitals with rising number of beds generate about 1.5 to 2 kg waste per day and per bed. This gives an insight about the volumes of waste generated from the government and private sector hospitals per day. Therefore, the hospital waste management is of utmost importance in the present public health scenario, where the occurrence and recurrence of the infectious diseases is a major public threat. The objective of this research was to find out how hospitals can benefit from improving medical waste management practices. In the questionnaire, survey questions were formulated for gathering data. The questionnaire was designed in such a way that it can provide general information about the hospital staff along with their knowledge about the medical waste and their concern regarding the waste disposal-training program. It was found that the importance was being laid on proper waste disposal only and much less focus was given on waste minimization and recycling of the waste. The study has found that the city can benefit both environmentally and economically by improving the medical waste management at different hospitals.

Gondia is one of the centrally located districts of India. It is famous for its lakes and water bodies. These water bodies exhibit enormous diversity of plants according to geographical location, depth of water body, water regime, chemistry of water, soil and sediment characteristics. Very little work has been done so far on the flora of the water bodies of Gondia district. Therefore, a study has carried out to understand the aquatic plants diversity of selected 5 lakes around Gondia city. For this, well-planned surveys were carried out at selected sites frequently. During visits, data like habit, life span, local names, and life forms of all the plant species present in the water body were collected. During the study, 44 species of 37 genera belonging to 26 families have been recorded from selected sites. Most dominant family was Hydrocharitaceae with 4 genera and 4 species, followed by Asteraceae, Poaceae, Convolvulaceae and Potamogetonaceae with 3 species each. Jaccard and Sorenson similarity indexes showed that Lake I and Lake II have maximum similarity and highest diversity as compared to other sites. The present work revealed the database of aquatic plants in water bodies around Gondia, which will help in future work for the conservation, preservation and growth of the local biodiversity.

The last time in Earth's history when high latitudes were warmer than during pre-industrial times was the last interglacial period (LIG, 129–116 ka BP). Since the LIG is the most recent and best documented interglacial, it can provide insights into climate processes in a warmer world. However, some key features of the LIG are not well constrained, notably the oceanic circulation and the global carbon cycle. Here, we use a new database of LIG benthic δ13C to investigate these two aspects. We find that the oceanic mean δ13C was ∼  0.2 ‰ lower during the LIG (here defined as 125–120 ka BP) when compared to the Holocene (7–2 ka BP). A lower terrestrial carbon content at the LIG than during the Holocene could have led to both lower oceanic δ13C and atmospheric δ13CO2 as observed in paleo-records. However, given the multi-millennial timescale, the lower oceanic δ13C most likely reflects a long-term imbalance between weathering and burial of carbon. The δ13C distribution in the Atlantic Ocean suggests no significant difference in the latitudinal and depth extent of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) between the LIG and the Holocene. Furthermore, the data suggest that the multi-millennial mean NADW transport was similar between these two time periods.

Sometime during the middle to late Holocene (8.2 ka to ∼ 1850–1900 CE), the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) was smaller than its current configuration. Determining the exact dimensions of the Holocene ice-sheet minimum and the duration that the ice margin rested inboard of its current position remains challenging. Contemporary retreat of the GrIS from its historical maximum extent in southwestern Greenland is exposing a landscape that holds clues regarding the configuration and timing of past ice-sheet minima. To quantify the duration of the time the GrIS margin was near its modern extent we develop a new technique for Greenland that utilizes in situ cosmogenic 10Be–14C–26Al in bedrock samples that have become ice-free only in the last few decades due to the retreating ice-sheet margin at Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (n=12 sites, 36 measurements; KNS), southwest Greenland. To maximize the utility of this approach, we refine the deglaciation history of the region with stand-alone 10Be measurements (n=49) and traditional 14C ages from sedimentary deposits contained in proglacial–threshold lakes. We combine our reconstructed ice-margin history in the KNS region with additional geologic records from southwestern Greenland and recent model simulations of GrIS change to constrain the timing of the GrIS minimum in southwest Greenland and the magnitude of Holocene inland GrIS retreat, as well as to explore the regional climate history influencing Holocene ice-sheet behavior. Our 10Be–14C–26Al measurements reveal that (1) KNS retreated behind its modern margin just before 10 ka, but it likely stabilized near the present GrIS margin for several thousand years before retreating farther inland, and (2) pre-Holocene 10Be detected in several of our sample sites is most easily explained by several thousand years of surface exposure during the last interglaciation. Moreover, our new results indicate that the minimum extent of the GrIS likely occurred after ∼5 ka, and the GrIS margin may have approached its eventual historical maximum extent as early as ∼2 ka. Recent simulations of GrIS change are able to match the geologic record of ice-sheet change in regions dominated by surface mass balance, but they produce a poorer model–data fit in areas influenced by oceanic and dynamic processes. Simulations that achieve the best model–data fit suggest that inland retreat of the ice margin driven by early to middle Holocene warmth may have been mitigated by increased precipitation. Triple 10Be–14C–26Al measurements in recently deglaciated bedrock provide a new tool to help decipher the duration of smaller-than-present ice over multiple timescales. Modern retreat of the GrIS margin in southwest Greenland is revealing a bedrock landscape that was also exposed during the migration of the GrIS margin towards its Holocene minimum extent, but it has yet to tap into a landscape that remained ice-covered throughout the entire Holocene.

Understanding the evolution of, and the interactions between, ice sheets and the global climate over geological timescales is important for being able to project their future evolution. However, direct observational evidence of past CO2 concentrations, and the implied radiative forcing, only exists for the past 800 000 years. Records of benthic δ18O date back millions of years but contain signals from both land ice volume and ocean temperature. In recent years, inverse forward modelling has been developed as a method to disentangle these two signals, resulting in mutually consistent reconstructions of ice volume, temperature, and CO2. We use this approach to force a hybrid ice-sheet–climate model with a benthic δ18O stack, reconstructing the evolution of the ice sheets, global mean sea level, and atmospheric CO2 during the late Pliocene and the Pleistocene, from 3.6 million years (Myr) ago to the present day. During the warmer-than-present climates of the late Pliocene, reconstructed CO2 varies widely, from 320–440 ppmv for warm periods to 235–250 ppmv for the early glacial excursion ∼3.3 million years ago. Sea level is relatively stable during this period, with maxima of 6–14 m and minima of 12–26 m during glacial episodes. Both CO2 and sea level are within the wide ranges of values covered by available proxy data for this period. Our results for the Pleistocene agree well with the ice-core CO2 record, as well as with different available sea-level proxy data. For the Early Pleistocene, 2.6–1.2 Myr ago, we simulate 40 kyr glacial cycles, with interglacial CO2 decreasing from 280–300 ppmv at the beginning of the Pleistocene to 250–280 ppmv just before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Peak glacial CO2 decreases from 220–250 to 205–225 ppmv during this period. After the MPT, when the glacial cycles change from 40 to 80 120 kyr cyclicity, the glacial–interglacial contrast increases, with interglacial CO2 varying between 250–320 ppmv and peak glacial values decreasing to 170–210 ppmv.

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has been directly estimated using reconstructions of past climates that are different than today's. A challenge to this approach is that temperature proxies integrate over the timescales of the fast feedback processes (e.g., changes in water vapor, snow, and clouds) that are captured in ECS as well as the slower feedback processes (e.g., changes in ice sheets and ocean circulation) that are not. A way around this issue is to treat the slow feedbacks as climate forcings and independently account for their impact on global temperature. Here we conduct a suite of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) to quantify the forcing and efficacy of land ice sheets (LISs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in order to estimate ECS. Our forcing and efficacy quantification adopts the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and adjustment framework and provides a complete accounting for the radiative, topographic, and dynamical impacts of LIS on surface temperatures. ERF and efficacy of LGM LIS are −3.2 W m−2 and 1.1, respectively. The larger-than-unity efficacy is caused by the temperature changes over land and the Northern Hemisphere subtropical oceans which are relatively larger than those in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The subtropical sea-surface temperature (SST) response is linked to LIS-induced wind changes and feedbacks in ocean–atmosphere coupling and clouds. ERF and efficacy of LGM GHG are −2.8 W m−2 and 0.9, respectively. The lower efficacy is primarily attributed to a smaller cloud feedback at colder temperatures. Our simulations further demonstrate that the direct ECS calculation using the forcing, efficacy, and temperature response in CESM1.2 overestimates the true value in the model by approximately 25 % due to the neglect of slow ocean dynamical feedback. This is supported by the greater cooling (6.8 ∘C) in a fully coupled LGM simulation than that (5.3 ∘C) in a slab ocean model simulation with ocean dynamics disabled. The majority (67 %) of the ocean dynamical feedback is attributed to dynamical changes in the Southern Ocean, where interactions between upper-ocean stratification, heat transport, and sea-ice cover are found to amplify the LGM cooling. Our study demonstrates the value of climate models in the quantification of climate forcings and the ocean dynamical feedback, which is necessary for an accurate direct ECS estimation.

Volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on global temperature; their consequences are of particular interest in regions that are especially sensitive to climate change, like the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we develop a temperature-sensitive tree-ring-width standard chronology covering the period 1348–2014 CE using Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii (Kom.)) samples collected from the Animaqin Mountains on the Tibetan Plateau. We reconstruct the annual (prior August to current July) mean minimum temperature (Tmin) since 1380 CE and show that our reconstruction explains 58 % of the variance during the 1960–2014 calibration period. Our results demonstrate that in 77.8 % of cases in which a volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 5 or greater occurs, temperature decreases in the year of or the year following the eruption. The results of the superposed epoch analysis also indicate that there is a high probability that the Tmin decreases for 2 years after a large volcanic eruption, especially when such eruptions occur in the Northern Hemisphere.

We conduct a model–data analysis of the marine carbon cycle to understand and quantify the drivers of atmospheric CO2 concentration during the last glacial–interglacial cycle. We use a carbon cycle box model, “SCP-M”, combined with multiple proxy data for the atmosphere and ocean, to test for variations in ocean circulation and Southern Ocean biological export productivity across marine isotope stages spanning 130 000 years ago to the present. The model is constrained by proxy data associated with a range of environmental conditions including sea surface temperature, salinity, ocean volume, sea-ice cover and shallow-water carbonate production. Model parameters for global ocean circulation, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and Southern Ocean biological export productivity are optimized in each marine isotope stage against proxy data for atmospheric CO2, δ13C and Δ14C and deep-ocean δ13C, Δ14C and CO32-. Our model–data results suggest that global overturning circulation weakened during Marine Isotope Stage 5d, coincident with a ∼ 25 ppm fall in atmospheric CO2 from the last interglacial period. There was a transient slowdown in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Marine Isotope Stage 5b, followed by a more pronounced slowdown and enhanced Southern Ocean biological export productivity during Marine Isotope Stage 4 (∼ −30 ppm). In this model, the Last Glacial Maximum was characterized by relatively weak global ocean and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and increased Southern Ocean biological export productivity (∼ −20 ppm during MIS 3 and MIS 2). Ocean circulation and Southern Ocean biological export productivity returned to modern values by the Holocene period. The terrestrial biosphere decreased by 385 Pg C in the lead-up to the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by a period of intense regrowth during the last glacial termination and the Holocene (∼ 600 Pg C). Slowing ocean circulation, a colder ocean and to a lesser extent shallow carbonate dissolution contributed ∼ −70 ppm to atmospheric CO2 in the ∼ 100 000-year lead-up to the Last Glacial Maximum, with a further ∼ −15 ppm contributed during the glacial maximum. Our model results also suggest that an increase in Southern Ocean biological export productivity was one of the ingredients required to achieve the Last Glacial Maximum atmospheric CO2 level. We find that the incorporation of glacial–interglacial proxy data into a simple quantitative ocean transport model provides useful insights into the timing of past changes in ocean processes, enhancing our understanding of the carbon cycle during the last glacial–interglacial period.

To date few studies have reconstructed weather from personal diaries (also known as private diaries). In this paper, we consider different methods of indexing daily weather information, specifically precipitation, from eighteenth and nineteenth-century personal diaries. We examine whether there is a significant correlation between indexed weather information and local instrumental records for the period, thereby assessing the potential of discursive materials in reconstructing precipitation series. We demonstrate the potential for the use of diaries that record weather incidentally rather than as the primary purpose, and the value and utility of diaries covering short periods when used alongside nearby contemporary diaries. We show that using multiple overlapping personal diaries can help to produce a more objective record of the weather, overcoming some of the challenges of working with qualitative data. This paper demonstrates indices derived from such qualitative sources can create valuable records of precipitation. There is the potential to repeat the methodology described here using earlier material or material from further away from extant instrumental records, thereby addressing spatial and temporal gaps in current knowledge globally.

The Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) was a climate shift from a largely ice-free greenhouse world to an icehouse climate, involving the first major glaciation of Antarctica and global cooling occurring ∼34 million years ago (Ma) and lasting ∼790 kyr. The change is marked by a global shift in deep-sea δ18O representing a combination of deep-ocean cooling and growth in land ice volume. At the same time, multiple independent proxies for ocean temperature indicate sea surface cooling, and major changes in global fauna and flora record a shift toward more cold-climate-adapted species. The two principal suggested explanations of this transition are a decline in atmospheric CO2 and changes to ocean gateways, while orbital forcing likely influenced the precise timing of the glaciation. Here we review and synthesise proxy evidence of palaeogeography, temperature, ice sheets, ocean circulation and CO2 change from the marine and terrestrial realms. Furthermore, we quantitatively compare proxy records of change to an ensemble of climate model simulations of temperature change across the EOT. The simulations compare three forcing mechanisms across the EOT: CO2 decrease, palaeogeographic changes and ice sheet growth. Our model ensemble results demonstrate the need for a global cooling mechanism beyond the imposition of an ice sheet or palaeogeographic changes. We find that CO2 forcing involving a large decrease in CO2 of ca. 40 % (∼325 ppm drop) provides the best fit to the available proxy evidence, with ice sheet and palaeogeographic changes playing a secondary role. While this large decrease is consistent with some CO2 proxy records (the extreme endmember of decrease), the positive feedback mechanisms on ice growth are so strong that a modest CO2 decrease beyond a critical threshold for ice sheet initiation is well capable of triggering rapid ice sheet growth. Thus, the amplitude of CO2 decrease signalled by our data–model comparison should be considered an upper estimate and perhaps artificially large, not least because the current generation of climate models do not include dynamic ice sheets and in some cases may be under-sensitive to CO2 forcing. The model ensemble also cannot exclude the possibility that palaeogeographic changes could have triggered a reduction in CO2.

Climate of the past : CP 17(1), 151-170 (2021). doi:10.5194/cp-17-151-2021, Published by Copernicus Ges., Katlenburg-Lindau

We present a continuous and well-resolved record of climatic variability for the past 100 000 years from a marine sediment core taken in Delagoa Bight, off southeastern Africa. In addition to providing a sea surface temperature reconstruction for the past ca. 100 000 years, this record also allows a high-resolution continental climatic reconstruction. Climate sensitive organic proxies, like the distribution and isotopic composition of plant-wax lipids as well as elemental indicators of fluvial input and weathering type provide information on climatic changes in the adjacent catchment areas (Incomati, Matola and Lusutfu rivers). At the transition between glacials and interglacials, shifts in vegetation correlate with changes in sea surface temperature in the Agulhas Current. The local hydrology, however, does not follow these orbitally paced shifts. Instead, precipitation patterns follow millennial-scale variations with different forcing mechanisms in glacial vs. interglacial climatic states. During glacials, southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone facilitates a transmission of northern hemispheric signals (e.g., Heinrich events) to the southern hemispheric subtropics. Furthermore, the southern hemispheric westerlies become a more direct source of precipitation as they shift northward over the study site, especially during Antarctic cold phases. During interglacials, the observed short-term hydrological variability is also a function of Antarctic climate variability; however, it is driven by the indirect influence of the southern hemispheric westerlies and the associated South African high-pressure cell blocking the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone related precipitation. As a consequence of the interplay of these effects, small-scale climatic zones exist. We propose a conceptual model describing latitudinal shifts of these zones along the southeastern African coast as tropical and temperate climate systems shift over glacial and interglacial cycles. The proposed model explains some of the apparent contradictions between several paleoclimate records in the region.

The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; and LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally, we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations and simulations for future climate with moderate (1 % yr−1) CO2 increase show a relationship between LIG sea ice and sea ice simulated under CO2 increase around the years of doubling CO2. The LIG may therefore yield insight into likely 21st century Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.

Over the Plio-Pleistocene interval a strong linkage exists between northern African climate changes and the supply of dust over the surrounding oceans and continental runoff towards the Mediterranean Sea. Both these signatures in the sedimentary record are determined by orbital cycles influencing glacial variability on the one hand and northern African monsoon intensity on the other hand. In this paper, we use the intermediate-complexity model CLIMBER-2 to simulate African climate during the Plio-Pleistocene between 3.2 and 2.3 million years ago (Ma) and compare our simulations with existing and new climate reconstructions. The CLIMBER-2 model is externally forced with atmospheric CO2 concentrations, ice sheet topography, and orbital variations, all of which strongly influence climate during the Pliocene and Pleistocene. Our simulations indicate that the records of northern Africa climate oscillate in phase with climatic precession. For the Earth's obliquity cycle, the time lag between the 41 000-year component in insolation forcing and the climatic response increased after inception of Northern Hemisphere (NH) glaciation around 2.8 Ma. To test the outcome of our simulations, we have put emphasis on the comparison between the simulated runoff of grid boxes encompassing the Sahara desert and the Sahel region and the sedimentary records of marine sediment cores from ODP Site 659 (Atlantic Ocean) and ODP Site 967 (Mediterranean). In this study we will show for the first time an extended Ti∕Al record of Site 967 down to 3.2 Ma. This record strongly correlates with runoff in the Sahara and Sahel regions, whereas correlation with the dust record of Site 659 is moderate and slightly improves after NH ice sheet inception. We investigated the transient variability of the individual and combined contributions of the Sahel and Sahara regions and found significant transient behaviour overlapping the inception of NH ice sheets (2.8 Ma) and the Plio-Pleistocene transition (2.6 Ma). Prior to 2.8 Ma, a larger contribution from the Sahara region is required to explain the variability of Mediterranean dust input. After this transition, we found that a more equal contribution of the two regions is required, representing an increased influence of Sahel runoff and wet periods.

Changes in the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) affect global sea level. Greenland stable water isotope (δ18O) records from ice cores offer information on past changes in the surface of the GIS. Here, we use the isotope-enabled Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) climate model to simulate a set of last interglacial (LIG) idealised GIS surface elevation change scenarios focusing on GIS ice core sites. We investigate how δ18O depends on the magnitude and sign of GIS elevation change and evaluate how the response is altered by sea ice changes. We find that modifying GIS elevation induces changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, sea ice and precipitation patterns. These climate feedbacks lead to ice-core-averaged isotopic lapse rates of 0.49 ‰ (100 m)−1 for the lowered GIS states and 0.29 ‰ (100 m)−1 for the enlarged GIS states. This is lower than the spatially derived Greenland lapse rates of 0.62–0.72 ‰ (100 m)−1. These results thus suggest non-linearities in the isotope–elevation relationship and have consequences for the interpretation of past elevation and climate changes across Greenland. In particular, our results suggest that winter sea ice changes may significantly influence isotope–elevation gradients: winter sea ice effect can decrease (increase) modelled core-averaged isotopic lapse rate values by about −19 % (and +28 %) for the lowered (enlarged) GIS states, respectively. The largest influence of sea ice on δ18O changes is found in coastal regions like the Camp Century site.

The expansion of C4 vegetation during the Neogene was one of the largest reorganizations of Earth's terrestrial biome. Once thought to be globally synchronous in the late Miocene, site-specific studies have revealed differences in the timing of the expansion and suggest that local conditions play a substantial role. Here, we examine the expansion of C4 vegetation on the Indian Peninsula since the late Miocene by constructing a ∼6-million-year paleorecord with marine sediment from the Bay of Bengal at Site U1445, drilled during International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 353. Analyses of element concentrations indicate that the marine sediment originates from the Mahanadi River in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) of the Indian Peninsula. Hydrogen isotopes of the fatty acids of leaf waxes reveal an overall decrease in the CMZ precipitation since the late Miocene. Carbon isotopes of the leaf wax fatty acids suggest C4 vegetation on the Indian Peninsula existed before the end of the Miocene but expanded to even higher abundances during the mid-Pliocene to mid-Pleistocene (∼3.5 to 1.5 million years ago). Similar to the CMZ on the Indian Peninsula, a Pliocene expansion or re-expansion has previously been observed in northwest Australia and in East Africa, suggesting that these tropical ecosystems surrounding the Indian Ocean remained highly sensitive to changes in hydroclimate after the initial spread of C4 plants in late Miocene.

During the last decade, Bhilwara has developed into a leading place in the textile industry in India. The water used in textile industry is almost entirely discharged as waste. The effluents are very complex, containing salt, surfactants, ionic metals and their metal complexes, toxic organic chemicals, biocides, and toxic anions, which are harmful to both flora and fauna existing on our planet. Degradation of these non-biodegradable organic compounds is not possible by conventional treatment processes. The analysis of waste water with different quality parameters and photocatalytic bleaching was examined by using UV light in photochemical reactor with SnO2 catalyst.

In the last decades, changing climate conditions have had a severe impact on sea ice at the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), an area rapidly transforming under global warming. To study the development of spring sea ice and environmental conditions in the pre-satellite era we investigated three short marine sediment cores for their biomarker inventory with a particular focus on the sea ice proxy IPSO25 and micropaleontological proxies. The core sites are located in the Bransfield Strait in shelf to deep basin areas characterized by a complex oceanographic frontal system, coastal influence and sensitivity to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. We analyzed geochemical bulk parameters, biomarkers (highly branched isoprenoids, glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, sterols), and diatom abundances and diversity over the past 240 years and compared them to observational data, sedimentary and ice core climate archives, and results from numerical models. Based on biomarker results we identified four different environmental units characterized by (A) low sea ice cover and high ocean temperatures, (B) moderate sea ice cover with decreasing ocean temperatures, (C) high but variable sea ice cover during intervals of lower ocean temperatures, and (D) extended sea ice cover coincident with a rapid ocean warming. While IPSO25 concentrations correspond quite well to satellite sea ice observations for the past 40 years, we note discrepancies between the biomarker-based sea ice estimates, the long-term model output for the past 240 years, ice core records, and reconstructed atmospheric circulation patterns such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We propose that the sea ice biomarker proxies IPSO25 and PIPSO25 are not linearly related to sea ice cover, and, additionally, each core site reflects specific local environmental conditions. High IPSO25 and PIPSO25 values may not be directly interpreted as referring to high spring sea ice cover because variable sea ice conditions and enhanced nutrient supply may affect the production of both the sea-ice-associated and phytoplankton-derived (open marine, pelagic) biomarker lipids. For future interpretations we recommend carefully considering individual biomarker records to distinguish between cold sea-ice-favoring and warm sea-ice-diminishing environmental conditions.

Oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) of tree-ring cellulose are a novel proxy for summer hydroclimate in monsoonal Asia. In central Japan, we collected 67 conifer wood samples, mainly Chamaecyparis obtusa, with ages encompassing the past 2600 years. The samples were taken from living trees, archeological wood, architectural wood, and buried logs. We analyzed stable isotope ratios of oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δ2H) in tree-ring cellulose in these samples (more than 15 000 rings in total) without using a pooling method and constructed a statistically reliable tree-ring cellulose δ18O time series for the past 2500 years. However, there were distinct age trends and level offsets in the δ18O record, and cellulose δ18O values showed a gradual decrease as an individual tree matures. This suggested it is difficult to establish a cellulose δ18O chronology for low-frequency signals by simple averaging of all the δ18O time series data. In addition, there were opposite age trends in the cellulose δ2H, and δ2H gradually increased with tree age. There were clear positive correlations in the short-periodicity variations between δ18O and δ2H, probably indicating a common climate signal. A comparison of the δ18O and δ2H time series in individual trees with tree-ring width suggested that the opposite age trends of δ18O and δ2H are caused by temporal changes in the degree of post-photosynthetic isotope exchange with xylem water (physiological effect), accompanied by changes in stem growth rate that are influenced by human activity in the forests of central Japan. Based on the assumptions that cellulose δ18O and δ2H vary positively and negatively with constant proportional coefficients due to climatological and physiological effects, respectively, we solved simultaneous equations for the climatological and physiological components of variations in tree-ring cellulose δ18O and δ2H in order to remove the age trend. This enabled us to evaluate the climatic record from cellulose δ18O variations. The extracted climatological component in the cellulose δ18O for the past 2600 years in central Japan was well correlated with numerous instrumental, historical, and paleoclimatological records of past summer climate at various spatial and temporal scales. This indicates that integration of tree-ring cellulose δ18O and δ2H data is a promising method to reconstruct past summer climate variations on annual to millennial timescales, irrespective of the growth environment. However, analytical and statistical methods need to be improved for further development of this climate proxy.

Thermoluminescence (TL) of feldspar is investigated for its potential to extract temperature histories experienced by rocks exposed at Earth's surface. TL signals from feldspar observed in the laboratory arise from the release of trapped electrons from a continuous distribution of trapping energies that have a range of thermal stabilities. The distribution of trapping energies, or thermal stabilities, is such that the lifetime of trapped electrons at room temperature ranges from less than a year to several billion years. Shorter lifetimes are associated with low-temperature TL signals, or peaks, and longer lifetimes are associated with high temperature TL signals. Here we show that trapping energies associated with shorter lifetimes, or lower-temperature TL signals (i.e. between 200 and 250 ∘C), are sensitive to temperature fluctuations occurring at Earth's surface over geological timescales. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to reconstruct past surface temperature histories in terrestrial settings by exploiting the continuous distribution of trapping energies. The potential of this method is first tested through theoretical experiments, in which a periodic temperature history is applied to a kinetic model that encapsulates the kinetic characteristics of TL thermometry. We then use a Bayesian approach to invert TL measurements into temperature histories of rocks, assuming that past temperature variations follow climate variations observed in the δ18O records. Finally, we test the approach on two samples collected at the Mer de Glace (Mont Blanc massif, European Alps) and find similar temperature histories for both samples. Our results show that the TL of feldspar may be used as a paleothermometer.

It is widely accepted that orbital variations are responsible for the generation of glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene. However, the relative contributions of the orbital forcing compared to CO2 variations and other feedback mechanisms causing the waxing and waning of ice sheets have not been fully understood. Testing theories of ice ages beyond statistical inferences, requires numerical modeling experiments that capture key features of glacial transitions. Here, we focus on the glacial buildup from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7 to 6 covering the period from 240 to 170 ka (ka: thousand years before present). This transition from interglacial to glacial conditions includes one of the fastest Pleistocene glaciation–deglaciation events, which occurred during MIS 7e–7d–7c (236–218 ka). Using a newly developed three-dimensional coupled atmosphere–ocean–vegetation–ice sheet model (LOVECLIP), we simulate the transient evolution of Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere ice sheets during the MIS 7–6 period in response to orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. For a range of model parameters, the simulations capture the evolution of global ice volume well within the range of reconstructions. Over the MIS 7–6 period, it is demonstrated that glacial inceptions are more sensitive to orbital variations, whereas terminations from deep glacial conditions need both orbital and greenhouse gas forcings to work in unison. For some parameter values, the coupled model also exhibits a critical North American ice sheet configuration, beyond which a stationary-wave–ice-sheet topography feedback can trigger an unabated and unrealistic ice sheet growth. The strong parameter sensitivity found in this study originates from the fact that delicate mass imbalances, as well as errors, are integrated during a transient simulation for thousands of years. This poses a general challenge for transient coupled climate–ice sheet modeling, with such coupled paleo-simulations providing opportunities to constrain such parameters.

A compilation of the published literature on dust content in terrestrial and marine sediment cores was synchronized with pollen data and speleothem growth phases on the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) time axis. Aridity patterns for eight key areas of the global climate system have been reconstructed for the last 60 000 years. These records have different time resolutions and different dating methods, i.e. different types of stratigraphy. Nevertheless, all regions analysed in this study show humid conditions during early Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) and the early Holocene or deglaciation, but not always at the same time. Such discrepancies have been interpreted as regional effects, although stratigraphic uncertainties may affect some of the proposed interpretations. In comparison, most of the MIS2 interval becomes arid in all of the Northern Hemisphere records, but the peak arid conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich event 1 differ in duration and intensity among regions. In addition, we also compare the aridity synthesis with modelling results using a global climate model (GCM). Indeed, geological archives and GCMs show agreement on the aridity pattern for the Holocene or deglaciation, for the LGM and for late MIS3.

Coccolithophores contribute significantly to marine primary productivity and play a unique role in ocean biogeochemistry by using carbon for photosynthesis (soft-tissue pump) and for calcification (carbonate counter pump). Despite the importance of including coccolithophores in Earth system models to allow better predictions of the climate system's responses to planetary change, the reconstruction of coccolithophore productivity mostly relied on proxies dependent on accumulation and sedimentation rates and preservation conditions. In this study we used an independent proxy, based on the coccolith fraction (CF) Sr∕Ca ratio, to reconstruct coccolithophore productivity. We studied the marine sediment core MD03-2699 from the western Iberian margin (IbM), concentrating on glacial–interglacial cycles of Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 12 to MIS 9. We found that IbM coccolithophore productivity was controlled by changes in the oceanographic conditions, such as in sea surface temperature (SST) and nutrient availability, and by competition with other phytoplankton groups. Long-term coccolithophore productivity was primarily affected by variations in the dominant surface water mass. Polar and subpolar surface waters during glacial substages were associated with decreased coccolithophore productivity, with the strongest productivity minima concomitant with Heinrich-type events (HtEs). Subtropical, nutrient-poorer waters, increased terrigenous input, and moderate to strong upwelling during the deglaciation and early MIS11 are hypothesized to have attributed a competitive advantage to diatoms to the detriment of coccolithophores, resulting in intermediate coccolithophore productivity levels. During the progression towards full glacial conditions an increasing presence of nutrient-richer waters, related to the growing influence of transitional surface waters and/or intensified upwelling, probably stimulated coccolithophore productivity to maxima following the rapid depletion of silica by diatoms. We present conceptual models of the carbon and carbonate cycle components for the IbM in different time slices that might serve as a basis for further investigation and modelling experiments.

The monsoon system and westerly circulation, to which climate change responds differently, are two important components of global atmospheric circulation interacting with each other in the middle to low latitudes. Relevant research on global millennial-scale climate change in monsoon and westerly regions is mostly devoted to multi-proxy analyses of lakes, stalagmites, ice cores, and marine and eolian sediments. Different responses from these proxies to long-term environmental change make understanding climate change patterns in monsoon and westerly regions difficult. Accordingly, we disaggregated global closed basins into areas governed by monsoon and westerly winds, unified paleoclimate indicators, and added lake models and paleoclimate simulations to emphatically track millennial-scale evolution characteristics and mechanisms of East Asian summer monsoon and westerly winds since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Our results reveal that millennial-scale water balance change exhibits an obvious boundary between global monsoon and westerly regions in closed basins, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. The effective moisture in most closed basins of the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere mainly exhibits a decreasing trend since the LGM, while that of the low latitudes shows an increasing trend. In the monsoon-dominated closed basins of Asia, a humid climate prevails in the early to mid-Holocene, and a relatively dry climate appears in the LGM and late Holocene. In the westerly-wind-dominated closed basins of Asia, the climate is characterized by a humid LGM and mid-Holocene (MH) compared with the dry early and late Holocene, which is likely to be connected to precipitation brought by the westerly circulation. This study provides insight into the long-term evolution and synergy of westerly winds and monsoon systems as well as a basis for the projection of future hydrological balance.

Based on three drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index) reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental records, the summers of 1531–1540 were identified as the driest summer decade during the 1501–2015 period in the Czech Lands. Based on documentary data, extended from the Czech scale to central Europe, dry patterns of various intensities (represented, for example, by dry spells, low numbers of precipitation days, very low rivers, and drying-out of water sources) occurred in 1532, 1534–1536, 1538, and particularly 1540, broken by wetter or normal patterns in 1531, 1533, 1537, and 1539. Information relevant to summer droughts extracted from documentary data in central Europe was confirmed in summer precipitation totals from a multi-proxy reconstruction for Europe by Pauling et al. (2006) and further by self-calibrated summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstruction from tree ring widths in Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) by Cook et al. (2015). The summer patterns described are consistent with the distribution of sea level pressure deviations from a modern reference period. Summer droughts were responsible for numerous negative impacts, such as bad harvests of certain crops, reduction and lack of water sources, and frequent forest fires, while in the wetter summers central Europe was affected by floods. However, there are no indications of severe impacts of a multi-country or multi-year effect. Reconstructions based on documentary data indicate that the summers of 1531–1540 constitute the driest summer decade in central Europe for the past five centuries between 1501 and 2010 CE.

Climatic oscillations have been developed through the (Early) Jurassic from marine sedimentary archives but remain unclear from terrestrial records. This work presents investigation of climate-sensitive sediments and carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of lacustrine and pedogenic carbonates for the Early Jurassic Ziliujing Formation taken from the Basin in southwestern China. Sedimentary and stable isotope proxies manifest that an overall secular (semi)arid climate dominated the Sichuan Basin during the Early Jurassic, except for the Hettangian. This climate pattern is similar to the arid climate in the Colorado Plateau region in western North America but is distinct from the relatively warm and humid climate in northern China and at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. The estimated atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2) from carbon isotopes of pedogenic carbonates shows a range of 980–2610 ppmv (∼3.5–10 times the pre-industrial value) with a mean of 1660 ppmv. Three phases of pCO2 (the Sinemurian 1500–2000 ppmv, the Pliensbachian 1000–1500 ppmv, and the early Toarcian 1094–2610 ppmv) and two events of pCO2 rapidly falling by ∼1000–1300 ppmv are observed, illustrating the pCO2 perturbation in the Early Jurassic. The perturbation of pCO2 is compatible with seawater temperature and carbon cycle from the coeval marine sediments, suggesting a positive feedback of climate to pCO2 through the Early Jurassic.

Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to -10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of -5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.

Droughts derive from a precipitation deficit and can also be temperature driven. They are dangerous natural hazards for human societies. Documentary data from the pre-modern and early modern times contain direct and indirect information on precipitation that allow for the production of reconstructions using historical climatology methods. For this study, two drought indices – the drought index of Bern (DIB) and the drought index of Rouen (DIR) – have been created on the basis of documentary data produced in Bern, Switzerland, and Rouen, France, respectively for the period from 1315 to 1715. These two indices have been compared to a third supra-regional drought index (SDI) for Switzerland, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium that was synthesised from precipitation reconstruction based on historical climatology. The results of this study show that the documentary data from Bern mainly contain summer droughts, whereas the data from Rouen rather allow for the reconstruction of spring droughts. The comparison of the three above-mentioned indices shows that the DIB and the DIR most probably do not contain all of the actual drought events; however, they detect droughts that do not appear in the SDI. This fact suggests that more documentary data from single locations, such as historical city archives, should be examined in the future and should be added to larger reconstructions in order to obtain more complete drought reconstructions.

Publications on temperate deciduous tree refugia in Europe are abundant, but little is known about the patterns of temperate tree refugia in eastern Asia, an area where biodiversity survived Quaternary glaciations and which has the world's most diverse temperate flora. Our goal is to compare climate model simulations with pollen data in order to establish the location of glacial refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period. Limits in which temperate deciduous trees can survive are taken from the literature. The model outputs are first tested for the present by comparing climate models with published modern pollen data. As this method turned out to be satisfactory for the present, the same approach was used for the LGM, Climate model simulations (ECHAM5 T106), statistically further down-scaled, are used to infer the temperate deciduous trees distribution during the LGM. These were compared with available fossil temperate tree pollen occurrences. The impact of the LGM on the eastern Asia climate was much weaker than on the European climate. The area of possible tree growth shifts only by about 2° to the south between the present and the LGM. This contributes to explain the greater biodiversity of forests in eastern Asia compared to Europe. Climate simulations and the available, although fractional, fossil pollen data agree. Therefore climate estimations can safely be used to fill areas without pollen data by mapping potential refugia distributions. The results show two important areas with population connectivity: the Yellow Sea emerged shelf and the southern Himalayas. These two areas were suitable for temperate deciduous tree growth, providing corridors for population migration and connectivity (i.e. less population fragmentation) in glacial and in interglacial periods. Many tree populations live in interglacial refugia; not glacial ones. The fact that the model simulation for the LGM fits so well with observed pollen distribution is another indication that the used model is good to simulate also the LGM period.

The Mediterranean Sea is characterized by a relatively strong west to east salinity gradient, which makes it an area suitable for testing the effect of salinity on foraminiferal shell geochemistry. We collected living specimens of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber albus to analyse the relation between element ∕ Ca ratios, stable oxygen isotopes of their shells, and surface seawater salinity, isotopic composition and temperature. The oxygen isotopes of sea surface water also correlate with salinity in the Mediterranean during winter, which is when sampling for this study took place. Seawater oxygen and hydrogen isotopes are positively correlated in both the eastern and western Mediterranean Sea, although the relationship differs from previously reported values, especially in the eastern region. The slope between salinity and seawater oxygen isotopes is lower than previously published results. Still, despite the rather modest slope, seawater and foraminiferal carbonate oxygen isotopes are correlated in our dataset, albeit with large residuals and high residual variability. This scatter could be due to either biological variability in vital effects or environmental variability. Numerical models backtracking particles show that ocean-current-driven mixing of particles of different origins might dampen sensitivity and could result in an offset caused by horizontal transport. Results show that Na ∕ Ca is positively correlated with salinity and independent of temperature. As expected, foraminiferal Mg ∕ Ca increases with temperature, which is in line with earlier calibrations, and in the high salinity environment. By using living foraminifera during winter, the previously established Mg ∕ Ca–temperature calibration is extended to temperatures below 18 ∘C, which is a fundamental prerequisite of using single foraminifera for reconstructing past seasonality.

Using new and previously published CO2 data from the EPICA Dome C ice core (EDC), we reconstruct a new high-resolution record of atmospheric CO2 during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 (190 to 135 ka)  the penultimate glacial period. Similar to the last glacial cycle, where high-resolution data already exists, our record shows that during longer North Atlantic (NA) stadials, millennial CO2 variations during MIS 6 are clearly coincident with the bipolar seesaw signal in the Antarctic temperature record. However, during one short stadial in the NA, atmospheric CO2 variation is small (∼5 ppm) and the relationship between temperature variations in EDC and atmospheric CO2 is unclear. The magnitude of CO2 increase during Carbon Dioxide Maxima (CDM) is closely related to the NA stadial duration in both MIS 6 and MIS 3 (60–27 ka). This observation implies that during the last two glacials the overall bipolar seesaw coupling of climate and atmospheric CO2 operated similarly. In addition, similar to the last glacial period, CDM during the earliest MIS 6 show different lags with respect to the corresponding abrupt CH4 rises, the latter reflecting rapid warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). During MIS 6i at around 181.5±0.3 ka, CDM 6i lags the abrupt warming in the NH by only 240±320 years. However, during CDM 6iv (171.1±0.2 ka) and CDM 6iii (175.4±0.4 ka) the lag is much longer: 1290±540 years on average. We speculate that the size of this lag may be related to a larger expansion of carbon-rich, southern-sourced waters into the Northern Hemisphere in MIS 6, providing a larger carbon reservoir that requires more time to be depleted.

The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.

Climate science is about to produce numerical daily weather reconstructions based on meteorological measurements for central Europe 250 years back. Using a pilot reconstruction covering Switzerland at a 2×2 km2 resolution for 1816, this paper presents methods to translate numerical reconstructions and derived indices into text describing daily weather and the state of vegetation. This facilitates comparison with historical sources and analyses of the effects of weather on different aspects of life. The translation, termed “synthetic weather diary”, could possibly be used to train machine learning approaches to do the reverse: reconstruct past weather from categorised text entries in diaries.

Private diaries are important sources of historical data for research on climate change. Their advantages include a high veracity and reliability, accurate time and location information, a high temporal resolution, seasonal integrity, and rich content. In particular, these data are suitable for reconstructing short-term, high-resolution climate series and extreme climatic events. Through a case study of Yunshan Diary, authored by Bi Guo of the Yuan dynasty of China, this article demonstrates how to delve into climate information in diaries, including species distribution records, phenological records, daily weather descriptions and personal experiences of meteorological conditions. In addition, this article considers how to use these records, supplemented by other data, to reconstruct climate change and extreme climatic events on various timescales, from multidecadal to annual or daily. The study of Yunshan Diary finds that there was a relatively low amount of precipitation in central and southern Jiangsu Province in the summer of 1309; the winter of 1308–1309 was abnormally cold in the Taihu Lake basin. In the early 14th century at the latest, the climate in eastern China had begun to turn cold, which reflects the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age.

Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values ( per doubling CO2).

Determining the sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to Holocene climate changes is a key prerequisite for understanding the future response of the ice sheet to global warming. In this study, we present new information on the Holocene glacial history of the GrIS in Inglefield Land, north Greenland. We use 10Be and in situ 14C exposure dating to constrain the timing of deglaciation in the area and radiocarbon dating of reworked molluscs and wood fragments to constrain when the ice sheet retreated behind its present-day extent. The 10Be ages are scattered ranging from ca. 92.7 to 6.8 ka, whereas the in situ 14C ages range from ca. 14.2 to 6.7 ka. Almost half of the apparent 10Be ages predate the Last Glacial Maximum and up to 89 % are to some degree affected by nuclide inheritance. Based on the few reliable 10Be ages, the in situ 14C ages and existing radiocarbon ages from Inglefield Land, we find that the deglaciation along the coast commenced at ca. 8.6–8.3 ka cal BP in the western part and ca. 7.9 ka in the central part, following the opening of Nares Strait and arrival of warm waters. The ice margin reached its present-day position at ca. 8.2 ka at the Humboldt Glacier and ca. 6.7 ka in the central part of Inglefield Land. Radiocarbon ages of reworked molluscs and wood fragments show that the ice margin was behind its present-day extent from ca. 5.8 to 0.5 ka cal BP. After 0.5 ka cal BP, the ice advanced towards its Little Ice Age position. Our results emphasize that the slowly eroding and possibly cold-based ice in north Greenland makes it difficult to constrain the deglaciation history based on 10Be ages alone unless they are paired with in situ 14C ages. Further, combining our findings with those of recently published studies reveals distinct differences between deglaciation patterns of northwest and north Greenland. Deglaciation of the land areas in northwest Greenland occurred earlier than in north Greenland, and periods of restricted ice extent were longer, spanning the Middle and Late Holocene. Overall, this highlights past ice sheet sensitivity to Holocene climate changes in an area where little information was available just a few years ago.

This paper deals with the issue of documenting hydrological drought with the help of drought marks (DMs) which have been preserved on dozens of hunger stones (HSs) in the river channel of the Elbe in Bohemia and Saxony. So far, the hunger stones have been regarded rather as an illustration of dry seasons. Our aim was, among other issues, to draw attention to the much greater value of hunger stones and individual dry year marks inscribed on them. Therefore, we wanted to verify their reliability and better understand the motivation of their authors. For this purpose, we used the current extreme drought period of 2014–2019, which allowed detailed documentation of a hunger stone in Děčín, Czech Republic, with marks dating from 1536 to 2003. Thanks to the helpful position of the stones relative to the water gauge, we could compare the measured mark heights to the corresponding water levels. Simultaneously, we have scanned the objects into 3D format so that it is possible to perform a detailed inspection of all the marks, even those that were overlooked during the field survey. A review of scientific and technical literature from the 19th century showed that the marks of low water levels on stones and rock outcrops were to some extent interconnected with other important points. They were linked to zero points of water gauges, initially set up for navigation purposes, and to flood marks. The particular situation in Děčín is therefore a unique example of the epigraphic indication of low and high water levels in the enclosing profile of the upper part of the Elbe River basin. To verify the low water level marks or drought marks, we used the then current scientific studies focussing on dry periods. However, we also used the oldest series of daily water levels measured in Magdeburg, Dresden and Prague, available from 1851, i.e. the beginning of measurements in Děčín. These series had to be reconstructed or digitised from Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) archive sources. Since 1851 we have been able to accurately identify the heights and sometimes even the specific days when the minima were marked. After a thorough field examination and newly measured data, coupled with data obtained from a review of older literature presenting the first surveys of marks on hunger stones as presented in 1842, older marks of low water levels can be considered a reliable indication of the annual water level minima. The aim of the mark creators was not to make commemorative inscriptions of drought but to register the exact minimum water level. Deviations between the marks and the water gauge records did not exceed 4 cm, and only exceptionally was the disparity greater. From the material obtained so far, an overall slightly decreasing trend of water level minima since the end of the 18th century is noticeable. The view on minima of the 16th and 17th centuries is based on only a few items of data, and it is difficult to generalise. However, the minima obtained are comparable to or lower than the data from the critical dry periods of 1842 and 1858 to 1874. Our verification of low water level marks should be an incentive to process all available epigraphic documents of this kind in the near future in closer cooperation with colleagues from Saxony. The potential of these objects offers a deeper knowledge of periods of hydrological drought and possibly of morphological changes in the Elbe riverbed.

Earth scientists describe a wide range of observational measurements as “proxy measurements”. By referring to such a vast body of measurements simply as “proxy”, researchers dilute significant differences in the various ways that measurements relate to the phenomena they intend to describe. The limited language around these measurements makes it difficult for the nonspecialist to assess the reliability and uncertainty of data generated from proxy measurements. Producers and reviewers of proxy data need a common framework for conveying proxy measurement methodology, uncertainty, and applicability for a given study. We develop a functional distinction between different forms of measurement based on the different ways that their outputs (values, interpretations) relate to the phenomena they intend to describe (e.g., temperature). Paleotemperature measurements, which are used to estimate temperatures of systems in Earth's past, serve as a case study to examine and apply this new functional proxy definition. We explore the historical development and application of two widely used paleotemperature proxies, calcite δ18O and TEX86, to illustrate how different measurements relate to the phenomena they intend to describe. Both proxies are vulnerable to causal factors that interfere with their relationship with temperature but address those “confounding causal factors” in different ways. While the goal of proxy development is to fully identify, quantify, and calibrate to all confounding causal factors, the reality of proxy applications, especially for past systems, engenders unavoidable and potentially significant uncertainties. We propose a framework that allows researchers to be explicit about the limitations of their proxies and identify steps for further development. This paper underscores the ongoing effort and continued need for critical examination of proxies throughout their development and application, particularly in Earth's history, for reliable proxy interpretation.

Lava flows have threatened and/or inundated inhabited areas and/or their supporting networks 38 times at 12 volcanoes in the past 70 years. A systematic evaluation of these events has not been undertaken, making it hard to compare eruptions, create lava flow vulnerability models to support impact assessments, and deduce best practices for managing lava flow crises. In this paper, we summarise all 38 basaltic lava flow crises and conduct a gap analysis by evaluating published literature. Eleven data types that could support enhanced physical impact studies and/or research on the societal effects of lava flows were identified. Four of the data types (preparation actions and narrative, eruption narrative, response narrative, and evacuation data) have been well-documented (i.e. documented in at least half the eruptions). Communication approaches and recovery narratives have been included in at least a quarter of the studied eruptions, and their documentation in the literature is increasing with time. Five data types (lava flow attribute data, detailed physical impact data, and information on lava flow hazard modelling, community reactions, and applications of learnings) have only been documented a handful of times each. We suggest that standardisation of data collection and data storage could increase the frequency with which these data types are documented. Finally, we use the case studies to extract lessons about how community understanding of volcanic hazards influences community resilience and how lava flow modelling can inform planning. We also describe lessons relating to evacuation processes, mitigation methods, and recovery.

The issue of environment versus human activity has become one of the most common global topics. Global warming, greenhouse effect, air pollution, land and water pollution are all results of human activity. Human behaviour lies at the root of both conservation and environmental damage. The rapid growth of population and economic development are some of the greatest threats to the environment through the expansion and intensification of agriculture, uncontrolled growth of urbanization and industrialization, and the destruction of natural habitats. The paper seeks to study the unique features of Manipur, a pristine land situated in the North-East corner of India which is noted for its rich biodiversity, abundance of medicinal plants with various healing properties and yet it is facing the threat of environmental degradation and pollution. It is mainly rapid population growth, unplanned urbanization in urban areas, lack of awareness about environmental issues, poverty and Jhuming cultivation practices in the hills that have led to environmental damage, with its concomitant effects on human development, for it is ultimately the people of the state who have to suffer the effects of environmental damage. The paper gives a broad picture of the abundant green resources and unique fauna of Manipur and the environmental problems that threaten its biodiversity.

Global climate cooled from the early Eocene hothouse (∼52–50 Ma) to the latest Eocene (∼34 Ma). At the same time, the tectonic evolution of the Southern Ocean was characterized by the opening and deepening of circum-Antarctic gateways, which affected both surface- and deep-ocean circulation. The Tasmanian Gateway played a key role in regulating ocean throughflow between Australia and Antarctica. Southern Ocean surface currents through and around the Tasmanian Gateway have left recognizable tracers in the spatiotemporal distribution of plankton fossils, including organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts. This spatiotemporal distribution depends on both the physicochemical properties of the water masses and the path of surface-ocean currents. The extent to which climate and tectonics have influenced the distribution and composition of surface currents and thus fossil assemblages has, however, remained unclear. In particular, the contribution of climate change to oceanographic changes, superimposed on long-term and gradual changes induced by tectonics, is still poorly understood. To disentangle the effects of tectonism and climate in the southwest Pacific Ocean, we target a climatic deviation from the long-term Eocene cooling trend: the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; ∼40 Ma). This 500 kyr phase of global warming was unrelated to regional tectonism, and thus provides a test case to investigate the ocean's physicochemical response to climate change alone. We reconstruct changes in surface-water circulation and temperature in and around the Tasmanian Gateway during the MECO through new palynological and organic geochemical records from the central Tasmanian Gateway (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1170), the Otway Basin (southeastern Australia), and the Hampden Beach section (New Zealand). Our results confirm that dinocyst communities track specific surface-ocean currents, yet the variability within the communities can be driven by superimposed temperature change. Together with published results from the east of the Tasmanian Gateway, our new results suggest a shift in surface-ocean circulation during the peak of MECO warmth. Simultaneous with high sea-surface temperatures in the Tasmanian Gateway area, pollen assemblages indicate warm temperate rainforests with paratropical elements along the southeastern margin of Australia. Finally, based on new age constraints, we suggest that a regional southeast Australian transgression might have been coincident with the MECO.

In this paper we introduce a Bayesian framework, which is explicit about prior assumptions, for using model ensembles and observations together to constrain future climate change. The emergent constraint approach has seen broad application in recent years, including studies constraining the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) using the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP). Most of these studies were based on ordinary least squares (OLS) fits between a variable of the climate state, such as tropical temperature, and climate sensitivity. Using our Bayesian method, and considering the LGM and mPWP separately, we obtain values of ECS of 2.7 K (0.6–5.2, 5th–95th percentiles) using the PMIP2, PMIP3, and PMIP4 datasets for the LGM and 2.3 K (0.5–4.4) with the PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 datasets for the mPWP. Restricting the ensembles to include only the most recent version of each model, we obtain 2.7 K (0.7–5.2) using the LGM and 2.3 K (0.4–4.5) using the mPWP. An advantage of the Bayesian framework is that it is possible to combine the two periods assuming they are independent, whereby we obtain a tighter constraint of 2.5 K (0.8–4.0) using the restricted ensemble. We have explored the sensitivity to our assumptions in the method, including considering structural uncertainty, and in the choice of models, and this leads to 95 % probability of climate sensitivity mostly below 5 K and only exceeding 6 K in a single and most uncertain case assuming a large structural uncertainty. The approach is compared with other approaches based on OLS, a Kalman filter method, and an alternative Bayesian method. An interesting implication of this work is that OLS-based emergent constraints on ECS generate tighter uncertainty estimates, in particular at the lower end, an artefact due to a flatter regression line in the case of lack of correlation. Although some fundamental challenges related to the use of emergent constraints remain, this paper provides a step towards a better foundation for their potential use in future probabilistic estimations of climate sensitivity.