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This study investigates the short-run dynamics among Islamic financial depth, interest rates, inflation, and their impact on Saudi Arabian economic output using quarterly information spanning 2017–2023. The study employed a vector autoregressive model due to the non-cointegrated nature of the variables. Results indicate positive short-run relationships between the current GDP per capita and its lagged value, and between economic growth and inflation. Conversely, interest rates demonstrated a negative short-run relationship with economic growth, while Islamic financial depth showed a positive but lagged impact. Wald tests confirmed short-run causality from inflation, interest rates, and Islamic financial depth to GDP. These findings suggest that keeping inflation in check with good central bank policies is important for stable markets and a growing economy. Furthermore, the size of the Islamic finance sector in Saudi Arabia seems to boost the country’s economy. The findings provide useful information for Saudi Arabian decision-makers in government and Islamic financial institutions.

Copyright of Akademik Hassasiyetler is the property of Huzeyfe Suleyman Arslan and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

AbstractThe study examines the long-run relationship between remittances and household consumption in Lesotho for the period 1991-2019 using the Johansen cointegration technique and the Engle-Granger Residual Approach. Despite remittances in Lesotho representing over 20% of GDP which is highly significant relative to other African countries, a long-run relationship between remittances and household consumption has not been conclusively established in prior literature. The results of this study, however, confirms a significant positive long-run equilibrium relationship between household consumption, remittances and GNI per capita. According to the results, there exist a negative but insignificant relationship between household consumption and real interest rate. However, in the short-run, remittances negatively affect household consumption. This implies that increase in remittances in Lesotho reduce household consumption initially. A possible explanation is the existence of household consumption adjustment phase when remittances are first received. This means that in the short-run consumption is mostly financed from other income sources which may be informal, as the case with many developing countries. However, in the long run this pattern subsides.

The paper aims to probe the tourism-economic growth nexus in the case of India. The paper incorporates a more structural view of sector-specific macroeconomic variables like central government expenditure on tourism (CGET), investment in the tourism industry (IOT), foreign tourist arrivals, and foreign tourist visits as explanatory parameters. Johansen's cointegration and error correction model results support the long-run relationship among the variables. All the independent variables are unidirectional causal on GDP except investment in tourism, which shows long-run bidirectional causality. Thus, the long-run unidirectional tourism-led growth hypothesis is supported. The empirical implications support government and private sector-based resource allocation towards tourism expansion, thereby escalating the country's economic growth.

The paper investigates the asymmetric volatility effect of five major cryptocurrencies and their bilateral linkages with major indices in the Indian stock market. To investigate the bilateral relationship of crypto currency with stock indices, researchers used two major stock indices in the Indian stock market namely, BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty. The study used GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH models, asymmetric to model the asymmetric volatility effect in the conditional volatility of crypto currencies and stock indices. Johansen's cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model is used for examining the presence of cointegration between selected variables and to analyse the strength of causality among them. The study finds the evidence of cointegration between cryptocurrencies and stock market indices, implying that cryptocurrencies are related to stock indices. Further there is unidirectional relationship among stock and crypto market and crypto currencies having short-lived response to shocks in stock markets. Even with these currencies' explosive growth, there are still not many research examining their connection to stock markets. This study will help investor's those who making investment in currency market or in the stock market to evaluate the pattern of volatility, interconnection among them, so that they can make crucial investment decisions and diversification strategies. This will help them to gain knowledge about how these two markets move together so they may avoid underestimating risk when building portfolios that contain both kinds of assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Hacettepe University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences / Hacettepe Üniversitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Hacettepe University, Faculty of Economic & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

International trade and capital flows are the key macroeconomic indicators of a country's balance of payment, and they impact the real economy. This study estimates the long-run association between exports, imports, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth since India's economic reform in 1991 until 2019. Johansen multivariate cointegration method has been adopted to study this association and to develop long-run cointegration model. The augmented Dickey–Fuller test results show that variables are non-stationary at level and stationary at first difference. The cointegration model suggests a long-run relationship among GDP per person employed (GDPPE), exports, imports and FDI. The result shows that exports are the major determinant and positively influences the GDPPE whereas imports and FDI negatively influence GDPPE. The imports affect GDPPE more negatively than FDI. The vector error correction model finds long-run causality from GDPPE, exports and imports towards FDI and short-run causality from GDPPE towards FDI, imports towards FDI and GDPPE towards exports. The policy focus should be on export promotion and to closely watch the causal effect of labour productivity on FDI and exports, and imports on FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines how monetary policy affects small and medium-scale (SMEs) in Nigeria during 1991–2020. The paper shows how monetary policy variables, such as the interest rate, money supply and inflation rate, drive the relative outputs of the SMEs to GDP (SMEGDP). In line with theoretical consideration, the estimation includes other control variables including gross fixed capital formation and secondary school enrolment rate to represent proxies for capital and labour, respectively. The result shows that the Johansen cointegration establishes long-run relationship amongst the considered determinants of the SMEGDP. The study finds that the money supply and interest rate, respectively, have significant positive and negative impact on the SME outputs, whist inflation rate produces adverse but insigificnat effect on output. The magnitude and significance of interest rate is more than that of the money supply. Generally, the evidence suggests the need for policy to reposition SMEs. The paper recommends that there should be discretionary use of monetary policy in enhancing SMEs and efforts at promoting macroeconomic stability.

This study is examined the validity of the Phillips curve hypothesis using the Johansen cointegration and artificial intelligence methods for the period of 2010-2022 in Türkiye and it is also compared the forecasting performance of these methods using coefficient of determination values and error values. Results of the study an 1% increase in unemployment in the long run leads to a 0.854% decrease in consumer prices. This result supports the Phillips Curve hypothesis for the long run. On the other hand, the error correction model shows that Phillips curve hypothesis is not valid in the short run. Besides, R2 and other error metrics namely mean absolute error, root mean square error and the mean absolute percentage error values verify the better forecasting performance of the artificial neural network model than Johansen cointegration. In this context, the findings that can be obtained as a result of artificial intelligence modeling in the management of inflation and unemployment are considered to be important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the long-run relationship between remittances and household consumption in Lesotho for the period 1991-2019 using the Johansen cointegration technique and the Engle-Granger Residual Approach. Despite remittances in Lesotho representing over 20% of GDP which is highly significant relative to other African countries, a long-run relationship between remittances and household consumption has not been conclusively established in prior literature. The results of this study, however, confirms a significant positive long-run equilibrium relationship between household consumption, remittances and GNI per capita. According to the results, there exist a negative but insignificant relationship between household consumption and real interest rate. However, in the short-run, remittances negatively affect household consumption. This implies that increase in remittances in Lesotho reduce household consumption initially. A possible explanation is the existence of household consumption adjustment phase when remittances are first received. This means that in the short-run consumption is mostly financed from other income sources which may be informal, as the case with many developing countries. However, in the long run this pattern subsides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Management & Economics Research is the property of Journal of Management & Economics Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

A study was conducted to determine the effect of the Dow Jones index and silver prices on gold prices. For this purpose, daily data for the period January 1, 1985 to June 15, “2022 were used. In the study, the Johansen cointegration test was used to examine whether there was a long-term relationship between the variables, and the Granger causality test was used to determine the direction of the causal relationship between the variables. According to the findings, a long-term relationship was determined between the variables. Also, the direction of the relationship between gold prices and the Dow Jones index and silver prices was examined. It was found that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between gold prices and silver prices, whereas no causal relationship was found between gold prices and the Dow Jones index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this research investigation is to determine the effect of Sweden aid, UK aid, and US aid with control variables including the capital, and labor on economic growth utilizing Somalia data for the years 1989 to 2017. the study checked unit root problem by using both Phillips Perron (PP) and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) bounds testing approach were employed to model the long-run and short-run cointegrations of the scrutinized variables and also the study uses the J & J cointegrating to regress for the long-run estimation. The study's empirical findings revealed that the variables had a long cointegration. It was discovered that while UK aid has no noticeable long-term relationship with economic growth in Somalia, whereas Swedish aid and US aid contribute the economic growth of Somalia. There are indications that Swedish assistance will boost long-term economic growth. Similarly, US aid is indicated to contribute to long-term gross domestic product (GDP), but UK aid has an insignificant impact on economic growth because UK aid relates mostly to military aid compared to those two other countries. Capital is also seen to contribute to long-term gross domestic product (GDP) which is suggesting that capital growth is more responsive to economic growth than other variables. While labor is also seen to contribute to long-term gross domestic product. Therefore, policymakers should establish a strategy to growth the economy by promoting the economy's most important drivers, such as exchange rates, capital, and inflation, and address drivers that impede the country's economic growth, such as the labor force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden variability in solar photovoltaic (PV) power output to electrical grid can not only cause grid instability but can also affect power and frequency quality. Therefore, to study the balance of electrical grid or micro-grid power generated by PV systems in an upstream direction, predicting models can help. The power output conversion is directly proportional to the solar irradiance. Unlike time horizons predictions, many technics of irradiance forecasting have been proposed, long, medium and short term forecasting. For the Island of Mauritius in the Indian Ocean, and regards to key policy decisions, the government has outlined its intention to promote the PV technologies through the local electricity supplier but oversee the technical requirements of PV power output predicts for 1 hour to 15-minutes ahead. So, this paper is illustrating results of the Johansen vector error correction model (VECM) cointegration approach, from the author original and previous studies, but for a very short term prediction of 15-minutes to PV power output in Mauritius. The novelty of this study, is the long run equilibrium relationship of the Johansen model, that was initially determined in previous research works and from dataset in Reunion Island, is then applied to the PV plant in the Island of Mauritius. The proposed prediction model is trained for an hourly and 15-minutes period from year 2019 to year 2022 for a random month and a random day. The experimental results show that the performance metric R2 values are more than 93% signifying that Johansen model is positively and strongly correlated to onsite measurements. This proposed model is a powerful predicting tool and more accuracy should be attained when associated to a machine learning method that can learn from datasets.

This research aims to investigate the kind of link and potential long-term and short-term relationships between the stock market indexes of India and certain Asian and African nations. The stock market indexes of India, Indonesia, South Africa, Japan, Singapore, and China are studied using annual data from 2000 to 2021. There is a strong correlation between the stock markets. With a correlation coefficient ranging from 0.68 to 0.82, all nations have substantial correlations with the Indian stock market, with the exception of the Chinese stock market. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test is used to determine whether the time series data is stationary or not, it is discovered that all values of the series are stationary at their level form. The Johansen Co-integration Approach is used to analyse the long-term linkages between the stock market indexes. The result demonstrated that the NSE Nifty and other key stock exchange indexes in Asian and African markets have a long-term relationship.

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları ile vergiler arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyerek mali yanılsamanın geçerliliğini vergi-harcama teorisi kapsamında test etmektir. Bu çerçevede Türkiye’de dolaylı-dolaysız vergiler ile kamu harcamaları arasındaki ilişki 1971-2019 yılları için Johansen eşbütünleşme ve Granger nedensellik analizleri kullanılarak güncel veriler ile test edilmekte ve literatüre katkı sağlanmaktadır. Yapılan analizde, kurumlar vergisi ile kamu harcamaları arasında eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkisinin bulunmadığı; mal ve hizmetler üzerinden alınan vergiler ile kamu harcamaları arasında nedensellik ilişkisi bulunurken gelir vergisi ile kamu harcamaları arasında hem uzun dönemli bir ilişki hem de nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu durum Türkiye’de mali yanılsamanın geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.

Although the relationship between finance and growth is receiving more attention, little is known about how financial development affects growth. Financial development is the multidimensional phenomena the study check the impact of financial development by using the proxy of domestic credit on private sector Education, Private Investment, Government Spending and Term of Trade. The study check the impact of financial development on economic growth during the time of 1980-2022 from Pakistan. The VECM results also suggest the existence of short run association among the selected variables (financial development, economic growth, government spending, education, private investment and term of trade). The outcome of the Johansen's Cointegration test indicate that the financial growth positively related with economic evolution. The findings of Augmented Dickey-Fuller shows financial develop. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Red chilli (Capsicum annumm L.) is a commodity with high price fluctuations. Market participants use red chilli price fluctuations to manipulate price information and cause information asymmetry. So that, the price information is not transmitted properly and indicates the market is not integrated. This study aims to describe price developments and analyze the integration of the red chilli market in Malang Regency, Malang City, and Surabaya City. The analytical method used is descriptive statistics, Johansen cointegration, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results showed that the price of red chilli fluctuated. Red chilli price fluctuations occur because production is seasonal, causing the distribution of chillies to be uneven every month. Therefore, efforts are needed to regulate cropping patterns so that the supply of chilli is always available. The results of market integration show that all variables are cointegrated in the long run and not integrated into the short run. This indicates that price information is transmitted imperfectly. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the information system so that all market participants can access market information.

In this study, R&D Expenditures' impacts on Turkey's high-tech export performance are examined with the help of annual frequented data covering the period 1996–2017. Estimations are performed by Johansen cointegration analysis and error correction model. The findings point out that amplifying R&D expenditures positively affects Turkey's high technology export flows. However, the share of high technology exports in total manufacturing industry exports is adversely affected by increasing of R&D expenditures. This finding is interpreted as the payments made for R&D are employed toward the production of lower sub-technology product groups instead of high tech products for Turkey . Target-oriented monitoring of the expenditures made for supporting R&D activities for Turkey and directing them to high technology products production would assist to expand export volume and export value added in the medium and long run. The study offers important policy implications in terms of its results. In this study, R&D Expenditures' impacts on Turkey's high-tech export performance are examined with the help of annual frequented data covering the period 1996–2017. Estimations are performed by Johansen cointegration analysis and error correction model. The findings point out that amplifying R&D expenditures positively affects Turkey's high technology export flows. However, the share of high technology exports in total manufacturing industry exports is adversely affected by increasing of R&D expenditures. This finding is interpreted as the payments made for R&D are employed toward the production of lower sub-technology product groups instead of high tech products for Turkey . Target-oriented monitoring of the expenditures made for supporting R&D activities for Turkey and directing them to high technology products production would assist to expand export volume and export value added in the medium and long run. The study offers important policy implications in terms of its results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty reduction and economic progress and development accentuate sustainability and growth. This study explores a new model that specifies the FDI-led growth theory for the Rwandan economy. An annual time series data from 1970 to 2018 was obtained from the World Bank. The Johansen cointegration and ARDL approaches were used after realizing a varied order of integration from the stationarity test by adopting unit root tests. All variables were established to wield a positive impact on economic development except financial development from the financial sector which was significant in the short run but insignificant in the long run. Financial development from the private sector, exchange rate, consumer price index, gross domestic product, and population wield significant influence on FDI inflow for economic development, which implies that an improvement in these factors will equitably support economic growth. In principle, 1% improvement in the financial development from the private sector and exchange rate will produce a corresponding 397% and 78% increase advancement in FDI inflows in the long run. Averagely, financial development from the private sector, exchange rate, consumer price index, gross domestic product, and population are valuable to the economy of Rwanda. Therefore, we recommend that the relevant authority expand regional and global bilateral and partnership to enhance the economy to fully reap the benefits of engaging in globalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The capital market plays a vital role in economic growth since it is an important source of financing the business sector’s investments. Hence, a developed capital market enables efficient financial resource allocation by channeling domestic savings to those that need capital, which in turn leads to increased investment directed towards innovation and supports sustainable growth. The main objective of this research is to examine the impact of macroeconomic determinants on the capital market development in the Republic of North Macedonia. The focus has been put on the investigation of two dependent variables, stock market turnover to GDP ratio and stock market turnover to market capitalization ratio (Turnover Ratio) as parameters resembling the liquidity (depth) of the capital market, and how they depend on the economic growth, macroeconomic stability, trade openness and gross investments to GDP ratio. The empirical study is based on a time-series data analysis based on relevant secondary data sources, based on the utilization of the Johansen Test of Cointegration and the development of a corresponding Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the relationship, the impact, the magnitude, and the significance of the determinants that support, and influence the liquidity of the stock market in North Macedonia during the period from 2008:Q1 to 2021:Q4. The analysis shows the existence of a significant long-run relationship between the observed macroeconomic factors and the stock market liquidity. The findings indicate that imports and real interest rates have a negative, yet statistically significant impact on the stock market turnover to GDP ratio. The gross domestic product rate, exports, and inflation rate have all a positive and statistically significant impact on the stock market turnover to GDP ratio. Gross investments also positively affect the stock market turnover to GDP ratio, but not significantly. On the other hand, the analysis shows that gross investments and exports have a positive, yet statistically significant impact on the stock market turnover to market capitalization ratio. The gross domestic product, imports, and inflation rate have all a negative and statistically significant impact, whilst the impact of the interest rates is negative but insignificant.

Bu çalışmada BIST100 hisse senedi endeksinin faiz, döviz kuru ve altın fiyatları açısından duyarlılığının belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla 4 Ocak 2000-28 Haziran 2021 dönemini kapsayan günlük veriler kullanılarak tüm örneklem dönemine ilişkin değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkilerinin COVID-19 pandemi dönemi ile kıyaslandığında nasıl seyrettiği Johansen-Juselius eşbütünleşme analizi, Granger nedensellik testi, varyans ayrıştırma ve etki-tepki analizleri uygulanarak araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, eşbütünleşme analizi için bağımlı değişkenin BIST100 endeksi getirisi olduğu durumda değişkenler arasında bir uzun dönem ilişki bulunmuş olup; altın fiyatlarının BIST100 üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamamıştır. Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçları ise ele alınan dönem için BIST 100 endeksi ile hem döviz kuru hem de faiz serisi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını saptarken, BIST100 endeksinden altın fiyatlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi ortaya koymuştur. COVID-19 dönemi ele alındığında %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde seriler arasında bir uzun dönem ilişkisi bulunamamış olup, %10 anlamlılık düzeyinde bulunan bir eşbütünleşik ilişki için ise hata düzeltme mekanizması yalnızca bağımlı değişkenin faiz oranları olduğu durumda çalışmıştır. Ayrıca bu dönemde genel dönemdeki kısa dönem ilişkilerinin tersine BIST100 endeksindeki değişimi serinin kendisinden sonra en çok açıklayan değişkenin altın fiyatları olduğu saptanmış olup, altın fiyatlarından BIST100’e doğru ve BIST100’den faiz oranlarına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri elde edilmiştir.

We use a time-series dataset to examine the relationship between remittances and calorie intake in Bangladesh over the period between 1976 and 2013. We employ the Johansen cointegration and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests and arrive at two key results. First, we find evidence of long run cointegration between remittances, calorie consumption, and other control variables. Second, the Toda-Yamamoto test supports the finding of unidirectional causality, running from remittances to calorie intake. Our results have important policy implications for Bangladesh and other remittancereceiving developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South African agriculture has the potential to stimulate growth in other economic sectors, but dwindling budgetary allocations to agriculture over time and the nature of other impacting factors on the value of agricultural production have not received much attention in recent times. Therefore, the present study examined the effects of government expenditure in agriculture, annual average rainfall, consumer price index, food import value, and population on the value of agricultural production with a specific focus on government expenditure in agriculture for the period 1983 to 2019. Using the Johansen cointegration test, the results reveal that there is a long-run relationship among the variables. The Granger causality test results suggest that government expenditure in agriculture does not Granger cause the value of agricultural production. However, the two variables are linked through other variables in the model, such that an increase in government expenditure in agriculture, average annual rainfall, and population were shown to ultimately increase the value of agricultural production based on vector autoregressive (VAR) model analysis. In contrast, an increase in the consumer price index and food import value is detrimental to the value of agricultural production. These studies' findings have policy implications for increased government expenditure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The capital market plays a vital role in economic growth since it is an important source of financing the business sector's investments. Hence, a developed capital market enables efficient financial resource allocation by channeling domestic savings to those that need capital, which in turn leads to increased investment directed towards innovation and supports sustainable growth. The main objective of this research is to examine the impact of macroeconomic determinants on the capital market development in the Republic of North Macedonia. The focus has been put on the investigation of two dependent variables, stock market turnover to GDP ratio and stock market turnover to market capitalization ratio (Turnover Ratio) as parameters resembling the liquidity (depth) of the capital market, and how they depend on the economic growth, macroeconomic stability, trade openness and gross investments to GDP ratio. The empirical study is based on a time-series data analysis based on relevant secondary data sources, based on the utilization of the Johansen Test of Cointegration and the development of a corresponding Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the relationship, the impact, the magnitude, and the significance of the determinants that support, and influence the liquidity of the stock market in North Macedonia during the period from 2008:Q1 to 2021:Q4. The analysis shows the existence of a significant long-run relationship between the observed macroeconomic factors and the stock market liquidity. The findings indicate that imports and real interest rates have a negative, yet statistically significant impact on the stock market turnover to GDP ratio. The gross domestic product rate, exports, and inflation rate have all a positive and statistically significant impact on the stock market turnover to GDP ratio. Gross investments also positively affect the stock market turnover to GDP ratio, but not significantly. On the other hand, the analysis shows that gross investments and exports have a positive, yet statistically significant impact on the stock market turnover to market capitalization ratio. The gross domestic product, imports, and inflation rate have all a negative and statistically significant impact, whilst the impact of the interest rates is negative but insignificant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Emerging Economies & Policy is the property of JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies & Policy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Management & Economics Research is the property of Journal of Management & Economics Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of International Journal of Economics & Political Sciences Academic Researches / Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Siyaset Bilimleri Akademik Araştırmalar Dergisi is the property of Journal of Economics & Political Sciences Academic Researches and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Kastamonu University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences Faculty / Kastamonu Üniversitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Kastamonu University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper investigates that the effects of total real public investments made to Artvin upon the real per capita income in Artvin. The relationship between public investments and income is analyzed using Granger causality and cointegration tests. Also, the analysis has covered the period of 1988-2017, based on annual observations. According to the results of Granger test, there is a causality relationship at 5% level of statistically significance from public investments to the income of Artvin citizens, whereas there isn't any significant causal relationship from income to public investments. A long-term relationship hasn’t been determined between public investments and per capita income in Artvin in Johansen cointegration test.

This paper seeks to empirically test the applicability of the export-led model to the economies of the countries belonging to the Andean Community (Comunidad Andina de Naciones – CAN) by verifying the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis, which indicates that gross domestic product (GDP) behavior is based on export (EXP) dynamics. This hypothesis was tested for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. The methodology used was the application of Johansen cointegration and Block Exogeneity Wald tests to identify Granger causality between variables of the natural logarithms of EXP and GDP. The results obtained show that the causal effect of exports on GDP can only be rejected for the Bolivian economy. Lastly, the main conclusion of this study is that the economic policies of the CAN member countries should not assume that the export sectors are the foundations of their respective economies. Therefore, the CAN governments should not introduce economic policies that prioritize the expansion of the export sector.

Copyright of Omer Halisdemir Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Omer Halisdemir University, Faculty of Economics & Admistrative Sciene and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Long-run relationships and structural breaks have often been confused so that many investigators ignore the structural breaks in long-run stock price relationships. In this paper, we investigate the long-run relationships among stock prices in BRICS countries in a bivariate framework. We used a non-linear threshold cointegration test, which endogenously incorporates possible regime shift behaviors into the long-run relationships from 2004 to 2018. The Johansen cointegration test, the Gregory and Hansen cointegration test, and the Hatemi-J regime shift cointegration test, which allow for single and double structural breaks, were used. The principal finding of this paper confirms the presence of cointegration among the BRICS stock markets with two endogenous structural breaks. The study confirms that ignoring the presence of structural breaks in long-run series data can produce ambiguous results. It also confirms the absence of cointegration among these stock markets (Brazil and China, India and China, and China and South Africa) after two endogenous structural breaks. These empirical findings support conjecture on more than just the changes in the relationships between the BRICS stock markets. The disintegrated markets suggest the absence of arbitrage activity and vice versa. Thus, disintegrated markets mean that investors can obtain long-term gains through international portfolio diversification. While the benefit of the diversification is very limited in the long run, it is unlikely to be eliminated in practice. Hence, there is a possibility of obtaining an unusual profit in such a market, and consequently the assumptions of market efficiency could also be violated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2007 Reunion Island, a French overseas region located in the Indian Ocean, aims to achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2030. The French government has made this insular zone an experimental territory for renewable energy resources (RES) by implementing great powers photovoltaic (PV) plants. However, the performance of PV conversion is highly climate dependent, and there have been many research contributions to show that the two main factors that influence PV cell efficiency are solar radiation and cell temperature. Moreover, considering the high variability of environmental factors on PV plants, the high penetration of PV in electric systems may threaten the stability and reliability of the electrical power grid. In this study, a linear relation analysis of time series data collected over one year is performed in order to investigate the dependent variable of PV power output from explanatory variables such as solar irradiance, cell temperature, wind speed and humidity. The originality of this paper is to apply cointegration methods, usual tools of econometrics, to PV systems. More precisely, this research work lies in the use a robust statistical method to model a vector cointegrating relationship linking the PV power output and the four environmental parameters mentioned above, to make accurate forecasts in a tropical area. The Johansen vector error correction model (VECM) cointegration approach is used to determine the most appropriate PV power output forecasting when the desired model is concerned with N explanatory variables and for N > 2. This long run equilibrium relationship has been tested over many years of data and the outcome is more than reliable when comparing the model to measured data.

In international trade, two market are spatially integrated when the price of one commodity traded continuously and has same price movement after adjusting the exchange rate and transaction cost. This condition indicate that price eficiency because information of price is well spread, so no participant of market can manipulate price. Price movement of Indonesian cocoa beans has different movement with price of world market and importing countries. This indicate no price transmission, which means there is price discrepancy of Indonesia with world market and importing countries. This study examined degree of integration and price efficiency of Indonesia cocoa beans with world market and importing countries. Integration analysis using Cointegration Johansen approach, Vector Autoregression (VAR)/Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and price efficiency analysis using the Generalized Autoregeressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) approach . The results showed that the price of Indonesian cocoa beans integrates long term with the price of cocoa beans in the world market (New York Board of Trade) and India. In the short term price of Indonesian cocoa beans integrated with the price of cocoa beans in Malaysia. Among the prices of Indonesian cocoa beans with USA does not happen both long-term and short-term integration. The price of Indonesian cocoa beans in the spot market of Makassar is included in the efficient market category of weak forms, where the current price reflects a set of pricing information in the past.

This paper aims to examine the possible Granger-causality relationship between public debt and economic growth in Indonesia between 1998 and 2018. To accomplish this aim, a time series regression approach as well as diagnostic tests such as the Augment Dickey–Fuller test and Johansen cointegration test (which provides evidence of a long-term relationship between external debt and economic growth) were conducted. A VECM Granger causality approach was chosen to investigate the causal link between government and economic growth. The VECM estimation provides new evidence that, over the long term, domestic debt has significantly and positively affected economic growth; at the same time, external debt has significantly and negatively affected economic growth. Meanwhile, Granger-causality analysis shows that economic growth has a unidirectional causal relationship with external public debt, but does not have such a relationship with domestic public debt. For this study, a series of 20 data points per variable were analyzed, covering 1998 through 2018. This sample size is rather small, and as such its findings are not perfect. The use of a much larger data set would enhance any similar studies in the future. Nonetheless, this study illuminates the role of government debt in the economy by highlighting the importance of domestic markets as sources of public debt to promote economic growth in Indonesia, and recommends that the government do so.

Chicken eggs are one of the primary sources of protein for people in West Sumatra. The level of consumption continues to increase every year, while the availability of broiler eggs is not stable. This condition illustrates the problems faced by consumers and producers, namely price instability. Market integration is a metric that demonstrates how price changes in the reference market affect price changes in the follower market. The objective of this research is to examine the price variation and market integration of broiler eggs in West Sumatra. Coefficient of variation analysis is used to examine price variation, while cointegration analysis with the Vector Autoregression (VAR)/Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model is used to investigate market integration. The variations coefficient analysis shows that the price of chicken eggs on the market is relatively more stable than that of the consumer market. The results of the integration analysis show that there is no integration between the market for broiler eggs at the producer and consumer levels, both in the long and short term. This is due to the information asymmetry between the two markets.

Corporate tax incentives are granted by governments to encourage foreign direct investment FDI. While, the tax policy in Iraq varies for both domestic and foreign investments, the Iraqi government offers tax holidays between 3 and 10 years to attract foreign investors to do their desirable investment. The objective of this research is to analyze how the Iraqi’s corporate tax rate affects FDI and study the comparison between Iraqi and KRG tax policies. The data are annual observation of Iraqi tax rate which is the net percentage of profit and FDI net percentage of GDP. The time-series data from 2005 to 2019 were employed. Three distinct sorts of tests are engaged in this research, the first stage unit root test is conducted to determine the stationary of the data, second, Johansen cointegration test was used to find cointegration between variables, and finally, the Granger causation test is used to determine causality among variables over the period. The finding result shows that the tax rate and FDI are cointegrated and have a long-run relationship. Particularly, foreign direct investment is impacted by changes in the tax rate, while fluctuation in the number of FDI has not any influence on the tax rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The study examines the inter-relationship of credit and output and brings to the fore the critical role of bank credit in financial intermediation. Applying Johansen's cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM), the study finds long run association between credit and output at the aggregate level during 1997-98:Q1 to 2019-20:Q2 as also at the sectoral level for agriculture and services during 2007-08:Q1 to 2019-20:Q2. The Gregory-Hansen test revealed break in 2013-14:Q2 in the relationship between overall credit and output possibly reflecting the absence of long-run relationship for capital intensive sector such as industry and manufacturing. The coefficient measuring long-run impact of overall credit on output in the economy showed an upward movement after the break – reflecting the combined impact of structural reforms undertaken in the banking system and availability of spare capacity. Thus, notwithstanding hiccups observed sometimes, the underlying relation of credit and output appears strong and sustained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]