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Latin America experienced a decline in household income inequality in the 2000s, in sharp contrast to growing inequality in other regions of the world. This has been attributed to macroeconomic policy, social spending, and increased returns to education. This paper explores this issue from a gender perspective by econometrically evaluating how changes in economic structure and policy have impacted gendered employment and unemployment rates, as well as gender inequality in these variables, using country-level panel data for a set of 18 Latin American countries between 1990 and 2010. Three variables stand out as having consistent gender-equalizing effects in the labor market: social spending, minimum wages, and public investment. Less important or consistent were the effects of external factors (such as terms of trade), economic structure, and GDP growth.

Political economy theory expects that changes in macroeconomic governance are often catalyzed by institutional factors, such as partisanship, elections, or International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditionality. I challenge and contextualize this view by incorporating the role of technocratic advisors into a domestic policy-making framework. I contend that presidents from countries with crisis legacies are more likely to appoint mainstream economists that pursue budget discipline. Employing an originally constructed dataset, the Index of Economic Advisors, I conduct an econometric test of sixteen Latin American countries from 1961 to 2011. I find that politicians are most likely to appoint mainstream economists who embrace fiscal rectitude in countries with inflation-crisis legacies. Furthermore, these crisis legacies are enduring given the severity of inflationary trauma relative to other types of domestic economic volatility in Latin America. In fact, these effects hold when controlling for both historical and contemporaneous shocks to unemployment. Resumen Las teorias de la economia politica esperan que los cambios en la gobernanza macroeconomica sean frecuentemente catalizados por factores institucionales, como la afiliacion partidaria, las elecciones o la condicionalidad del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). Aqui desafio y contextualizo este punto de vista incorporando el papel de los asesores tecnocraticos en el analisis de la elaboracion de politicas nacionales. Sostengo que los presidentes de paises con experiencia en crisis son mas propensos a nombrar a economistas convencionales que buscan imponer disciplina presupuestaria. Usando una base de datos original, el Indice de Asesores Economicos, realizo un analisis econometrico de dieciseis paises latinoamericanos de 1961 a 2011. Encuentro que los politicos son mas propensos a designar economistas convencionales que adopten posiciones fiscales ortodoxas en paises con experiencia de crisis inflacionarias. Ademas, estas experiencias de trauma inflacionario tienen efectos mas duraderos porque son mas graves en comparacion con otros tipos de volatilidad economica interna en America Latina. Estos efectos se mantienen cuando se controla tambien por shocks de desempleo historicos y contemporaneos.

The economic history of Argentina presents one of the most dramatic examples of divergence in the modern era. What happened and why? This paper reviews the wide range of competing explanations in the literature and argues that, setting aside deeper social and political determinants, the various economic mechanisms in play defy the idea of a monocausal explanation.

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo evaluar el impacto de la capitalización de mercado de valores y el spread bancario en el crecimiento económico per cápita (como proxy del desarrollo económico) en las principales economías de América Latina durante el período 1994-2012. Para ello, se estima un modelo de datos de panel con el Método Generalizado de Momentos tanto en sistema como en diferencias. Los principales hallazgos empíricos son que el crecimiento económico en los países estudiados es afectado positivamente por la capitalización bursátil y negativamente por el spread bancario. Los problemas típicos de multicolinealidad y autocorrelación que aparece en el análisis de datos de panel son corregidos bajo la metodología propuesta.

The relationship between income inequality and crime has attracted the interest of many researchers, but little convincing evidence exists on the causal effect of inequality on crime in developing countries. This paper estimates this effect in a unique context: Mexico's Drug War. The analysis takes advantage of a unique data set containing inequality and crime statistics for more than 2,000 Mexican municipalities covering a period of 20 years. Using an instrumental variable for inequality that tackles problems of reverse causality and omitted variable bias, this paper finds that an increment of one point in the Gini coefficient translates into an increase of more than 10 drug-related homicides per 100,000 inhabitants between 2006 and 2010. There are no significant effects before 2005. The fact that the effect was found during Mexico's Drug War and not before is likely because the cost of crime decreased with the proliferation of gangs (facilitating access to knowledge and logistics, lowering the marginal cost of criminal behavior), which, combined with rising inequality, increased the expected net benefit from criminal acts after 2005.

(english) This paper estimates the impact of the 2010 Haiti earthquake on the household decision about children’s time allocation. We exploit the fact that the earthquake might affect the decision about children's time through its magnitude and household's revealed vulnerability. Separated measures of the earthquake magnitude and its damage allow us to estimate the impact of household’s vulnerability on the decision about time allocation of children 10 to 17 years old. We are also able to analize the differentiated effect on market and domestic work. Our results shows that vulnerability at the time of the earthquake severely affects investments in children’s human capital almost 3 years after the shock, which increases household’s risk of staying in poverty. _________________________________ (français) Cet article estime l’impact du tremblement de terre qui a frappé Haïti en 2010 sur la décision d’allocation du temps des enfants. Nous exploitons le fait qu’un séisme peut affecter l’arbitrage étude et travail en fonction de son intensité, mais aussi en fonction de la vulnérabilité révélée des ménages. Des données de première main, nous permettent de différencier l’intensité du séisme et les dommages engendrés, ce qui nous permet de mesurer l’impact de la vulnérabilité sur la décision des ménages concernant l’allocation du temps des enfants de 10 à 17 ans. Nos données nous permettent également de différencier les effets entre travail de marché et travail domestique. Nos résultats montrent que l’effet de la vulnérabilité des ménages au moment du séisme sur l’investissement en capital humain des enfants, persiste 3 ans après le choc, ce qui accroit le risque de trappe à pauvreté.

We investigate in this paper what are the main determinants of government and external debt in South America. Our sample purposely includes all nine South American countries that re-democratised in the last thirty years or so, and the data cover the period 1970-2007. The results, based on principal component and dynamic panel (time-series) data analyses (we use the Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects, Fixed Effects with Instrumental Variables, DIF-GMM and SYS-GMM estimators), suggest that economic growth has had the ability of significantly reduce debt in the region. Other important candidates suggested by the literature, such as inflation, in-equality and constraints on the executive (variables that some would deem important within the rather turbulent South American context), do not present the expected nor clear-cut estimates on government and external debt. Essentially, the results suggest firstly that the (neoclassical) tax-smoothing model holds in South America, or that the continent is, after all, countercyclical, and secondly they highlight the importance of such case studies in order to avoid unwarranted generalisations about the continent's recent history. All in all, in times of a renewed spell of populism in the region and of a severe debt crisis in Europe, these conclusions are suggestive of the importance of an economic environment geared towards generating economic activity and prosperity in, at least, keeping debt under control.

El objetivo de este artículo consiste en estimar la brecha de género en el puntaje obtenido en los exámenes de conocimientos aplicados a niños de tercer grado de primaria al tercer año de bachillerato del sistema educativo mexicano, así como explorar los efectos de las características observables sobre la diferencia en esos puntajes. Dado que el análisis es realizado en la media, y en toda la distribución de los puntajes, hacemos uso del método de regresión propuesto en Firpo, Fortin y Lemieux (2009) y Firpo, Fortin y Lemieux (2011). Los resultados indican que las niñas obtienen mejores puntajes que los niños en español, en primaria y secundaria. Mientras que los niños son mejores que las niñas en matemáticas en la parte alta de la distribución de puntajes en primaria, secundaria y en toda la distribución en el nivel medio superior, siendo esta brecha observada debido al efecto de los retornos.

After decelerating for two years, in 2009 the Mexican economy suffered a contraction only matched, in its modern history, by the one recorded in 1995, in the wake of the peso crisis of December 1994. As in the latter crisis, the economy immediately bounced back, posting positive growth in 2010. Compared with the sharp rebound of exports, though, the overall recovery was weak, with GDP and industrial production surpassing (barely, in the latter case) their pre-crisis levels only in 2011. Motivated by these observations, the paper studies the transmission channels behind the 2009 recession in Mexico, the reasons for the weakness of the 2010?2011 recovery, and ?based on that analysis? some of the risks the country faces for sustaining stronger economic growth in the future.

This document aims to provide evidence regarding the existence of different patterns in equality of opportunities in academic achievement during the last fifteen years in Colombia. The outcomes selected for measuring inequality are the scores obtained on the national test Saber 11 in math as well as reading. It is found that inequality has increased during this period, and that this trend is common for all the metropolitan areas included in the analysis. Most of the increase found comes from factors related to the school market. It is found that inequality of opportunities is higher than 20% in almost all the studied areas. © 2015 Universidad de Antioquia. All rights reserved.

Competition for foreign direct investment (FDI) among developing countries has intensified in recent years. Using a sample of 68 developing countries across different regions, with data from 1975-2005, this paper investigates whether Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) differs from non-LAC regions in regard to determinants of FDI; the evidence suggests that there are differences. In particular, the stock of infrastructure attracts FDI to LAC and constraints on the executive and high debt discourage FDI to non-LAC. These findings are robust to sample size, different estimators, endogeneity, and country fixed effects.

This paper tries to investigate some of the major factors considered to be of importance for economic development. Five countries from Asia (China, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand) and five from Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with the addition of Turkey, believed to resemble these Latin American countries in her development experience, were examined by a panel regression analysis. The model included seven cross-sectional variables (educational expenditures, external debt, gross capital formation, savings, GDP deflator, manufacturing value added and trade openness) for 21 years from 1992 to 2012 inclusive. The test results indicate that the most important factor influencing the economic growth of these countries was their external debt which possibly prevents or delays the convergence of the borrowing countries’ incomes with those of the high income countries. The gross capital formation and the manufacturing value-added variables were also significant, though, to a lesser extent. - Questo studio ha lo scopo di esaminare alcuni dei maggiori fattori considerati importanti per lo sviluppo economico. Cinque paesi asiatici (Cina, Indonesia, Malesia, Corea del Sud e Tailandia) e cinque dell’America Latina (Argentina, Brasile, Colombia, Messico e Venezuela) più la Turchia, in quanto la sua esperienza di sviluppo è ritenuta simile ai paesi del sud America presi in considerazione, sono stati esaminati attraverso una analisi panel regression. Il modello ha incluso sette variabili trasversali (spesa per l’istruzione, debito estero, formazione del capitale lordo, risparmio, deflazione del PIL, valore aggiunto della produzione e apertura commerciale) per un periodo di 21 anni, 1992-2012. I risultati dei test indicano che il fattore più importante che influenza la crescita economica di questi paesi è il loro debito estero, che talvolta previene o ritarda la convergenza dei redditi dei paesi debitori con quelli dei paesi ad alto reddito. La formazione del capitale lordo e il valore aggiunto del settore manifatturiero risultano anch’essi significativi, seppure in misura inferiore.

El objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar la dinámica económica de las regiones de España durante el periodo 1955-2009. Para ello, introducimos dos métricas que nos permiten comparar su desempeño económico; una basada en la noción de correlación y otra en la de distancia entre series temporales. Mediante la introducción de un método no paramétrico de agrupamiento podemos detectar la formación y evolución de grupos homogéneos de desempeño. La conclusión más relevante del análisis es la existencia de dos clubs de desempeño; uno de ellos relativamente homogéneo en su dinámica de crecimiento que corresponde fundamentalmente a las regiones más ricas de España y otro más heterogéneo que engloba al resto. La dinámica de estos dos grupos ha sido completamente diferente entre sí., The aim of this work is to analyse the regional Spanish growth dynamic from 1955 to 2009. In so doing we introduce two different metrics which permit to compare the economic performance of the Spanish regions based on the temporal series correlation and distance from a dynamic systems framework. By applying a non parametric method to these metrics we detect two different kinds of "performance clubs". One of them shows a relatively homogenous growth dynamic and it is basically conformed by the richest Spanish regions. The other one has shown a more heterogeneous growth dynamic. The economic dynamic of both clubs has been completely different.

In this paper, we examine determinants of initial adoption and subsequent intensification of commercial use of the internet. In contrast to previous examinations that have looked at initial adoption and intensification in the highest income countries, we study companies in Latin America and the Caribbean and so contribute to empirical understanding of the two types of adoption. Many variables such as company size and industry intensification previously identified as influential in high-income regions continue to be important determinants. Novel determinants are also found, including informal sector competition and regional influence. There are sharp differences in determinants between the two adoption types.

Using a national representative sample for Mexico, we analyse the effect of a husband having a working mother on the probability that he has a working wife. Our results show that labour force participation by a husband’s mother increases the probability of the labour force participation of his wife by 15 percentage points. The effect is mainly driven by males with less than a high school education. One possible confounding factor is the effect of labour force participation of the wife’s mother on the wife’s labour participation decision. However, in a different sample, we do not find any effect of work force participation of wives’ mothers on wives’ decisions to join the labour force. Finally, we test the effect of the work force participation of a husband’s mother on the husband’s preferences regarding child-rearing practices. We find that having a working mother strongly reduces the probability that daughters will be tasked to care for siblings and fosters preferences for a more egalitarian allocation of educational resources among children. Hence, promoting female labour force participation can have important dynamic implications, especially for developing countries.

This paper estimates long-run and short-run trade elasticities of export demand for Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago. To that end, a traditional export demand model is estimated for all three countries in the study using the bounds test for analyzing level relationships within the conditional autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. This study finds that for all three countries the price-centered variables in the model are statistically significant with their correct theoretical signs in the longrun and short-run. Moreover, the study finds that for all three countries, the estimated coefficients for the foreign activity variable are positive and statistically significant in both the long-run and the short-run. - Questo studio stima l’elasticità nel lungo e nel breve periodo della domanda dell’export in Guyana, Giamaica e Trinidad e Tobago. A questo fine si utilizza un modello tradizionale di domanda dell’export per i tre paesi considerati nello studio, utilizzando il bound test per analizzare le relazioni a intervallo distribuito autoregressivo condizionale. Questo lavoro evidenzia che per tutti e tre i paesi le variabili del modello basate sul prezzo sono statisticamente significative con i loro segni teoricamente corretti nel lungo e nel breve periodo. Inoltre vi è evidenza che per i tre paesi i coefficienti stimati per la variabile attività straniere sono positivi e statisticamente significativi sia nel lungo sia nel breve periodo.

Ecuador is immersed, since the adoption of the 2008 Constitution, in a process of economic, social and political changes, following the steps on their path to a more equal, post-extractive and democratic society. The main tool for this purpose, the National Strategy for the «Buen Vivir» (Good living) and the Change in the Production Model emphasizes new ways for producing, consumption and self-organization. Although Ecuadorian Constitution comprises these ideas and the Ecuadorian Government has promoted different programs and strategies, there is a limited analysis about the local manifestations of these policies. In this way, this paper proposes a study of the local strategies developed in a medium-size city in the south of Ecuador through the analysis of the local networks and the initiatives of local actors for developing strategies oriented to this end. Interviews and statistical data (demographic, economic and social data mainly) are used to confirm the level of accomplishment of these objectives. Thus, the existing local networks and the path of the city of Santa Rosa may explain the different level of recent socioeconomic changes taken place at local level instead of Central government policies.

In this methodological note we present a homogeneous measurement of labor income that is comparable over all years. Because the categories included in the definition of labor income have changed over time, an adjustment is necessary. In the measurement of inequality it is important not to include the year-end bonus (aguinaldo) or profit sharing (reparto de utilidades) as labor income. Under this adjusted definition, we find an inequality trend for the age group analyzed that is robust, regardless of whether the measurement is for the prior month or a normalized three-month period. For the prior month measurement, an increase in inequality is found until 1994, followed by a decrease until 2008. In the period 2008-2012, inequality remained relatively constant.

Policy programs in developing countries aimed at supporting certain sectors of the population in individual areas play a crucial role in development cooperation. Examples include programs to improve access to education. But what impact do such programs really have? The present study by DIW Berlin examines the impact of a welfare program on the learning success and participation of children in Colombian conflict zones. It shows that although the program does increase the school enrollment rate, learning success has barely improved at all. One possible explanation for this could be that school attendance is one prerequisite for learning successbut is not sufficient in isolation. Since children in conflict areas often need to help secure a livelihood for their families, they have little time left at the end of the day for homework and for school-related activities as a whole.

In Mexico, as in most Latin American countries with indigenous populations, it is commonly believed that European phenotypes are preferred to mestizo or indigenous phenotypes. However, it is hard to test for such racial biases in the labor market using official statistics since race can only be inferred from native language. Moreover, employers may think that married females have lower productivity, and hence they may be more reluctant to hire them. We are interested in testing both hypotheses through a field experiment in the labor market. The experiment consisted on sending fictitious curriculums (CVs) responding to job advertisements with randomized information of the applicants. The CVs included photographs representing three distinct phenotypes: Caucasian, mestizo and indigenous. We also randomly vary marital status across gender and phenotype. Hence, our test consists on finding whether there are significant differences in the callback rates. We find that females have 40 percent more callbacks than males. We also find that indigenous looking females are discriminated against, but the effect is not present for males. Interestingly, married females are penalized in the labor market and this penalty is higher for indigenous-looking women. We did not find an effect of marital status on males.

Muchos investigadores y economistas han argumentado que los estudios de competitividad del WEF e IMD muestran limitaciones en pequeñas economías,más aún cuando estas tienen características distintas. El objetivo de esta investigación es estudiar la competitividad de 3 peque˜nas economías: Puerto Rico, Costa Rica y Singapur. El modelo del doble-diamante de competitividad resulta útil a la hora de llevar a cabo esta tarea. La información procede de organismos internacionales. Los resultados muestran que Singapur goza de un mayor nivel de competitividad global comparado con Puerto Rico y Costa Rica. Concluimos que Puerto Rico y Costa Rica lucen equilibrados en competitividad, porque internacionalmente Puerto Rico aventaja a Costa Rica en 3 determinantes: condiciones de factores, condiciones de la demanda e industrias relacionadas y de apoyo; mientras que localmente Costa Rica es más competitivo que Puerto Rico en 3 factores domésticos: condiciones de factores, condiciones de demanda y estrategia de las firmas. / Many researchers and economists have argued that competitiveness studies conducted by WEF and IMD, show limitations in small-economies, even more when they have different characteristics. The objective of this research is to study the competitiveness of three small-economies: Puerto Rico, Costa Rica and Singapore. The double-diamond model of competitiveness is useful when performing this task. With data obtain from international organizations. The findings suggest that Singapore shows a higher level of global competitiveness compared to Puerto Rico and Costa Rica. We conclude that Puerto Rico and Costa Rica have similar levels of competitiveness, because internationally Puerto Rico leads to Costa Rica on 3 determinants: factor conditions, demand conditions and related industries. On the other hand, Costa Rica is locally more competitive than Puerto Rico in 3 domestic factors: factor conditions, demand conditions and firm’s strategy.

Insurance use and economic growth in Latin America. Some panel data evidence Abstract: Empirical and theoretical analyses suggest that there is a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth. A higher degree of financial development brings about growth in the long term by means of risk diversification, efficient capital use, increased savings opportunities, and trade of goods and services. As a gear of the financial engine, the insurance industry helps to diversify risk. The authors perform an empirical assessment of the relationship between the use of insurance and economic growth in eleven Latin American countries from 1980 to 2009. From a growth equation specification, a 1% increase in insurance use is associated with a rise in economic growth ranging from 0.17% to 0.44%. Key words: Insurance, economic growth, financial development, Latin America. JEL Classification: G22, O16, O54. Aseguramiento y crecimiento económico en América Latina. Evidencia a partir de datos de panel Resumen: existe evidencia empírica y teórica de una relación positiva entre el desarrollo financiero y el crecimiento económico. Un mayor nivel de desarrollo financiero promueve el crecimiento en el largo plazo mediante la diversificación del riesgo, el uso eficiente del capital, mayores oportunidades de ahorro y el comercio de bienes y servicios. Un sector importante del sistema financiero es la industria de aseguramiento, que ayuda a diversificar el riesgo de la actividad económica. El artículo lleva a cabo una evaluación empírica de la relación entre niveles de aseguramiento y crecimiento económico en once países de Latinoamérica entre 1980 y 2009. A partir de diferentes estimaciones de una ecuación de crecimiento económico, se encuentra que un incremento del 1% en el nivel de aseguramiento está asociado con un crecimiento entre 0,17% y 0,44% en la actividad económica. Palabras clave: aseguramiento, crecimiento económico, desarrollo financiero, América Latina. Clasificación JEL: G22, O16, O54. Assurances et croissance économique en Amérique latine. Une étude à partir des données de panel Résumé: Il existe des tests aussi bien empiriques que théoriques de la relation positive entre le développement financier et la croissance économique. En effet, ces tests montrent qu’un niveau plus élevé de développement financier favorise la croissance à long terme en diversifiant les risques, permet l'utilisation efficient du capital, augmente les possibilités d'épargner plus et favorise le commerce de biens et de services. Une partie importante du système financier est le marché des assurances puisqu’il contribue à distribuer le risque de l'activité économique. Cet article présente une évaluation empirique de la relation entre les niveaux de l'assurance et de la croissance économique dans onze pays d'Amérique latine entre 1980 et 2009. Tout en utilisant des différentes estimations de l'équation de la croissance économique, nous constatons que l'augmentation de 1% dans le niveau d'assurance, est associée à une augmentation entre 0,17% et 0,44% de l'activité économique. Mots-clés: assurance, croissance économique, développement financier, Amérique latine. Classification JEL: G22, O16, O54.

Colombia has the highest number of internally displaced refugees in the world after Syria. The decade-long ongoing armed conflict between the Colombian police and the armed forces, paramilitaries, and guerilla groups has caused 5.7 million people—more than ten percent of the population—to flee their homelands. Many of them are women and children, driven off their lands, in most cases, to the misery of precarious living conditions and poor hygiene in destitute urban districts. A study by DIW Berlin shows that this forced displacement is detrimental to the health of children in Colombia, with displaced infants and toddlers, for example, suffering from malnou¬rishment more frequently than non-displaced children of the same age group. Parents from displaced households also perceived their children’s state of health to be considerably worse. In addition, their probable lack of health insurance hampers access to health services and medicine.

This paper analyzes science and technology policy in Latino America. Making use of panel data methods, we test for successful science and technology policy, and sup­porting innovation practices in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. There are three paradigms that explain science and technology policy: the market failure paradigm, the mission paradigm, and the cooperative technology paradigm. The market failu­re paradigm assumes that market mechanisms will lead to optimal rates of science production and technical change. The mission technology paradigm assumes that governments may play an important role in the programmatic mission of agencies. The cooperative technology policy paradigm assumes that markets are not always the most efficient route to innovation. The results suggest that there is room for go­vernment involvement when defining a science and technology policy that aims to support the development of innovative capabilities. We conclude that mission and/ or the cooperative technology paradigms are adequate for defining a successful scien­ce and technology policy in Latino America.

The present study simulates the impacts of price surges in 2006-2008 on household poverty in the main Colombian cities. It is found that the price surges increased both extreme and moderate poverty in urban areas in short and medium terms. However, the magnitude of poverty rise is not homogeneous geographically or by household types – e.g., the poorest or less educated households were more badly affected than the wealthier or educated households. We suggest 'demographic targeting' or 'geographical targeting' as a policy option that selects and supports poor households by demographic characteristics or by geographical areas according to the degree of vulnerability. Protecting those households from food price shocks would be still important now given that rising and volatile food prices have continued due to erratic climate patterns and demand and supply conditions along with economic and financial crisis.

This paper uses plant level data from Chile to show that an increase in sector-wide exports decreases the survival probability of exporters, but not that of non-exporters. We argue that this result can be explained by the fact that exporters and non-exporters use factors of production in different intensities.

We study the relationship between openness and payment system development. In particular, we analyze how the existence of technology diffusion from a more developed country fosters a transformation of payment choice in a less developed country. We apply our analysis to Mexico. Economic growth in Mexico was not high enough to cause a transformation of payment choice observed in the data after 2001. We argue that the switch towards electronic payments can be attributed to openness and related payment technology spillovers from the US in the context of NAFTA.

Este artículo analiza el carácter político de la tributación, lo que ayuda a explicar por qué no ha sido homogénea la adopción del modelo auspiciado por el FMI en América Latina. Toma a Colombia como caso de estudio para mostrar que las reformas tributarias están supeditadas a su discusión en el Congreso, lo que genera diferencias entre las propuestas del ejecutivo y las leyes aprobadas. Además, muestra que la intervención de grupos de intereses particulares en el diseño y la aplicación de la política tributaria ayuda a explicar esas diferencias.

Este trabajo evalúa cómo choques originados en grandes economías alrededor del mundo se han trasmitido a las tasas de crecimiento de países latinoamericanos. Para ello se propone, estima, evalúa y simula un modelo VAR estructural bastante parsimonioso, identificado a través de vínculos de comercio bilateral. Dado que los pesos de comercio evolucionan a lo largo de la muestra, los efectos de los choques son cambiantes con el tiempo. Por tanto, es posible cuantificar cómo el crecimiento de la región se ha visto afectado por vínculos comerciales más estrechos con economías emergentes de rápido crecimiento, y cómo ha respondido a una nueva estructura de comercio mundial, con China como protagonista. Se encuentra que cerca de la mitad del vigoroso crecimiento registrado en América Latina a finales de la década del 2000 puede ser atribuida a multiplicadores (directos y principalmente indirectos) inducidos por el espectacular crecimiento de la economía china durante el mismo periodo.

We propose a new measure of allocative efficiency based on unrealized increases in aggregate productivity growth. We show that the difference in the value of the marginal product of an input and its marginal cost at any plant - the plant-input "gap" - is exactly equal to the change in aggregate output that would occur if that plant changed that input's use by one unit. The mean absolute gap across plants for any input can then be interpreted as an approximation to the gain to society that would occur if every plant had a one-unit change in that input in the efficient direction, holding everything else constant. We show how to estimate this average gap using plant-level data for 1982-1994 from Chilean manufacturing, a sector largely viewed as being one of South America's least distorted. We find the gaps for blue and white collar labor are quite large in absolute value and imply that a one-unit move in the correct direction for blue collar would increase aggregate value added by almost 0.5%. We also find that the gaps for blue and white collar workers are increasing over time while the gaps for materials and electricity are not. The timing of the two separate increases in firing costs and the sharpest increases in the labor gaps is suggestive that the increases in average within-firm labor gaps may be related to the increases in severance pay.

Es sabido que, a pesar de las mejoras que tuvieron lugar en los últimos años, las exportaciones de varios países de América Latina y el Caribe aún se encuentran por debajo de su potencial y de lo que cabría esperar en función de sus niveles de desarrollo. Lo mismo sucede con el grado de diversificación de sus exportaciones (Blyde et al., 2014). Asimismo, su participación en las cadenas globales de valor también parece ser relativamente limitada (Blyde y Volpe Martincus, 2011). Esto es importante, y potencialmente en gran medida, a los efectos de las perspectivas económicas de los países. Bajos niveles de apertura y diversificación pueden ser costosos en términos de crecimiento económico. Una participación limitada en las cadenas globales de valor puede tener consecuencias similares, en virtud de que restringe el acceso a los flujos internacionales de conocimiento y tecnología, lo cual reduce el potencial de aprendizaje y de aumento de la productividad de las empresas locales (véanse, por ejemplo, Brainard y Cooper, 1968; Frankel y Romer, 1999). Asimismo, la mayor disponibilidad de datos de exportaciones a nivel de empresa en los últimos años ha permitido saber que el comercio de América Latina y el Caribe, al igual que el de muchos otros países del mundo, está impulsado primordialmente por grandes exportadores que comercializan múltiples productos en múltiples destinos y que representan un porcentaje muy pequeño del número total de exportadores directos. De acuerdo con datos recientes, las exportaciones de muchas economías de América Latina y el Caribe se concentran en apenas el percentil superior de sus exportadores (Volpe Martincus y Graziano, 2013). No obstante, es bastante poco lo que se sabe sobre el papel que desempeñan las pequeñas y medianas empresas (PYMES) en el comercio de la región, a pesar de que representan más del 90 por ciento de las empresas y generan un alto porcentaje del empleo en estos países (véase, por ejemplo, CEPAL y OCDE, 2012). En particular, hay una serie de preguntas pendientes y a la vez decisivas, tales como: En qué medida y cómo contribuyen las PYMES a las exportaciones de sus países? Qué grado de internacionalización tienen las PYMES de América Latina y el Caribe en comparación con las de otras regiones del mundo? Cuán diversificadas son las exportaciones de las PYMES de América Latina y el Caribe en términos de productos y destinos? Cuáles son los principales obstáculos a la internacionalización de las PYMES de América Latina y el Caribe?

It is well known that, despite improvements in recent years, a number of LAC countries' exports still remain below their potential and what would be expected judging from their levels of development. The same holds for their degrees of export diversification (Blyde et al., 2014). In addition, their participation in global value chains (GVC) also seems to be relatively limited (Blyde Volpe Martincus, 2011). This matters for the countries' economic prospects, and potentially to a large extent. Low levels of openness and lack of diversification can be costly in terms of economic growth, whereas limited participation in GVC can restrict access to international flows of knowledge and technology, thereby reducing the potential for learning and productivity improvements in local firms (e.g., Brainard Cooper, 1968; Frankel Romer, 1999). The increased availability of firm-level export data in recent years has made it possible to also learn that LAC trade, like in many countries around the world, is primarily driven by large, multi-product, multidestination exporters that account for a very small share of the number of direct exporters. According to recent data, many LAC economies' exports are generated by the top-1 percent of exporters (Volpe Martincus Graziano, 2013). However, rather little is known about the role of small- and mid-size enterprises (SMEs) in the region’s trade, in spite of the fact that they make up more than 90 per cent of firms and account for a substantial portion of employment in these countries (e.g., ECLAC OECD, 2012). In particular, there are a series of pending yet pivotal questions, such as: To what extent and how do SMEs contribute to their countries' exports? How internationalized are LAC SMEs compared to SMEs in other world regions? How diversified are LAC SMEs' exports across products and destinations? What are the key bottlenecks to LAC SME internationalization?

This paper empirically investigates the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Jamaica covering the period 1980-2012. The empirical results suggest there is bi-directional causality between financial development and economic growth in Jamaica. This empirical result is consistent with the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis in the long run. The result further supports the hypothesis that finance is a leading sector in the growth process in Jamaica and implies that strong liquidity in the form of bank lending and volume is an important indicator of economic growth. - Questo studio esamina empiricamente la relazione causale tra sviluppo finanziario e crescita economica in Giamaica nel periodo 1980-2012. I risultati empirici suggeriscono che c’è una causalità bi-direzionale tra sviluppo finanziario e crescita economica in questo paese. Questo risultato empirico è coerente con l’ipotesi di McKinnon e Shaw per il lungo periodo. Inoltre questo risultato sostiene la tesi che la finanza è il settore principale del processo di crescita in Giamaica e implica che una forte liquidità, anche sotto la forma di credito bancario, è un indicatore importante della crescita economica.

Bu calismada Turkiye’nin 1950-2008 doneminde Avrupa Birligi’ne (ve Birligin ulkelerine) kisi basina gelir baglaminda yakinsama gosterip gostermedigi arastirilmistir. Arastirma icin zaman serisi yontemleri kullanilmis ve hem stokastik yakinsama hem de ß-yakinsamasi test edilmistir. Serilerdeki olasi kirilmalar dikkate alinarak yapilan analiz sonuclarina gore Turkiye Avrupa Birligi’ne kisi basina gelir baglaminda bir yakinsama gostermemektedir. Uye ulkelerin dikkate alindigi durumda ise Turkiye’nin Avrupa Birligi uyesi 17 ulkeden geri kaldigi tespit edilmistir. Bu sonuclar Turkiye’nin gerek Avrupa Birligi’nin gerekse uye ulkelerin gerisinde kaldigina isaret etmektedir. Calisma sonuclari Turkiye’nin Birlige katilabilmek icin sosyal ve siyasal reformlari gerceklestirmesinin yani sira, ekonomik alanda da gelisme gostermesi geregine dikkat cekmektedir.

Es sabido que, a pesar de las mejoras que tuvieron lugar en los últimos años, las exportaciones de varios países de América Latina y el Caribe aún se encuentran por debajo de su potencial y de lo que cabría esperar en función de sus niveles de desarrollo. Lo mismo sucede con el grado de diversificación de sus exportaciones (Blyde et al., 2014). Asimismo, su participación en las cadenas globales de valor también parece ser relativamente limitada (Blyde y Volpe Martincus, 2011). Esto es importante, y potencialmente en gran medida, a los efectos de las perspectivas económicas de los países. Bajos niveles de apertura y diversificación pueden ser costosos en términos de crecimiento económico. Una participación limitada en las cadenas globales de valor puede tener consecuencias similares, en virtud de que restringe el acceso a los flujos internacionales de conocimiento y tecnología, lo cual reduce el potencial de aprendizaje y de aumento de la productividad de las empresas locales (véanse, por ejemplo, Brainard y Cooper, 1968; Frankel y Romer, 1999).1. Asimismo, la mayor disponibilidad de datos de exportaciones a nivel de empresa en los últimos años ha permitido saber que el comercio de América Latina y el Caribe, al igual que el de muchos otros países del mundo, está impulsado primordialmente por grandes exportadores que comercializan múltiples productos en múltiples destinos y que representan un porcentaje muy pequeño del número total de exportadores directos. De acuerdo con datos recientes, las exportaciones de muchas economías de América Latina y el Caribe se concentran en apenas el percentil superior de sus exportadores (Volpe Martincus y Graziano, 2013) ...

Este trabajo analiza la convergencia regional de las provincias y estados para el caso del Mercosur durante 1961-2005 mediante un método de técnicas no paramétricas de “clusterización" bajo el concepto de “régimen de desempeño". En la primera sección se revisan los antecedentes. Seguidamente, se presentan los principales conceptos metodológicos: régimen, dinámica de regímenes y evolución de clusters. Los estados mejor posicionados de Brasil muestran un proceso de convergencia interregional de dinámica de regímenes con las regiones más ricas de Argentina y Uruguay; mientras que Paraguay, las regiones del norte brasileño y las provincias argentinas históricamente más retrasadas permanecen en estadios de baja performance económica, reduciendo la distancia intragrupo pero evidenciando un proceso de divergencia respecto del grupo de alto desempeño. El resultado arroja evidencias a favor de la convergencia por clubes de desempeño. La discusión final se centra en las consecuencias de la integración económica sobre este proceso. || This paper studies the regional convergence of sub-national states in the case of Mercosur from 1961 to 2005 by using a non-parametric technique of clustering under the concept of \regime of performance". In the first section, a review in interregional convergence is shown for the Mercosur case. Then, methodological concepts are introduced: regimens, dynamic of regimens, and clusters evolution. The best positioned Brazilian states show an interregional convergence process in dynamics of regimens towards the richest Argentinean regions and Uruguay; moreover, Paraguay, the North part of Brazil and the historically underdevelopment regions of Argentina are in scenarios of low economic performance, reducing the intra-group distance but showing a divergence process in reference to the highest income group. Results exhibit evidences in favor to convergence clubs of performance. The final discussion deals with the consequences of economic integration on that process.

This paper presents empirical evidence that allows us to understand how does the welfare level of beneficiary households of the conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades evolve, both in the short and in the medium term. Understanding this evolution is relevant in order to design efficient exit mechanisms for this type of programs—something that concerns at least 27 conditional cash transfer programs worldwide. Using administrative data of the universe of beneficiary households, we study changes in welfare levels of rural and urban households in the short and medium term. Furthermore, recognizing that the evolution of each household’s welfare level might be heterogeneous, we analyze the paths different types of households have followed over time. Our results confirm the existence of heterogeneity in the evolution of welfare levels among households. The data shows that poorer households have achieved greater improvements in their welfare level than (relatively) better off households.

It is well known that, despite improvements in recent years, a number of LAC countries' exports still remain below their potential and what would be expected judging from their levels of development. The same holds for their degrees of export diversification (Blyde et al., 2014). In addition, their participation in global value chains (GVC) also seems to be relatively limited (Blyde Volpe Martincus, 2011). This matters for the countries' economic prospects, and potentially to a large extent. Low levels of openness and lack of diversification can be costly in terms of economic growth, whereas limited participation in GVC can restrict access to international flows of knowledge and technology, thereby reducing the potential for learning and productivity improvements in local firms (e.g., Brainard Cooper, 1968; Frankel Romer, 1999). The increased availability of firm-level export data in recent years has made it possible to also learn that LAC trade, like in many countries around the world, is primarily driven by large, multi-product, multidestination exporters that account for a very small share of the number of direct exporters. According to recent data, many LAC economies' exports are generated by the top-1 percent of exporters (Volpe Martincus Graziano, 2013). However, rather little is known about the role of small- and mid-size enterprises (SMEs) in the region's trade, in spite of the fact that they make up more than 90 per cent of firms and account for a substantial portion of employment in these countries (e.g., ECLAC OECD, 2012). In particular, there are a series of pending yet pivotal questions, such as: To what extent and how do SMEs contribute to their countries' exports? How internationalized are LAC SMEs compared to SMEs in other world regions? How diversified are LAC SMEs' exports across products and destinations? What are the key bottlenecks to LAC SME internationalization?

Based on the so-called bounds testing approach, the paper studies the long-run effect of capital flows and the real exchange rate on Mexico’s private investment from 1988 through 2008, presenting two main results. First, while capital inflows can potentially increase investment, in practice they may lower it, because, as capital flows in, the peso appreciates. Second, although both FDI and portfolio inflows can increase investment, the effect from FDI is significantly smaller —in contrast to a frequent finding in the literature for other countries. Both results help to explain the low “transfer” of capital flows to investment in Mexico, and more generally the low levels of investment observed in the country.

This paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth and productivity to budget share ratios of government expenditures in Bolivia since 1940. Government expenditures are classified according to their functional and economic characteristics and place of origin. The results indicate that defense expenditures, decentralized expenditures (local or regional), and expenditures in Santa Cruz Department represent the best ways for government to boost the country's growth. Expenditures on additional areas, such as education, and in other promising departments, such as Beni and Oruro, have the potential for generating significant growth and should be considered areas for possible government intervention.

Mexico created Seguro Popular in 2002 with the goal of providing free or subsidized health insurance coverage to 47 million uninsured people by the year 2013. Hence, one unintended consequence of the program could be an increase in the size of the informal sector. The introduction of the Seguro Popular program was conducted in stages, across municipalities and time. We exploit this variation and implement a differences-in-differences approach in order to identify the causal effect of the program in formal employment outcomes. We analyze the effect of Seguro Popular using 33 large and relatively rich cities from labor force surveys conducted from 2001 to 2004. In order to measure the effect for poorer municipalities, we also use the individual-level Oportunidades dataset that covers 136 municipalities from 2002 to 2004. We find little evidence of any correlation between Seguro Popular and the decision of workers to be employed in the formal or informal sector. One possible explanation of our findings is the low enrollment of the Seguro Popular program during the period we study. We provide suggestive evidence from the 33 cities that the result holds for the 2005 to 2006 period as well. We conclude that the recent increase in informal employment in large municipalities in Mexico is due to other causes.

Among Mexican parents child gender has an effect on family structure and fertility decisions. A first-born daughter increases the probability of father absence, of maternal custody in case of marital dissolution, of having more children and of a shorter elapsed period before a new child is born. The collection of evidence suggests that those effects are the result of a preference for sons among parents and not the result of other causes that could explain some of the results separately.

We analyze the way in which Latin American countries have adjusted to commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks in the 1970-2007 period. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which the active management of international reserves and exchange rates impacted the transmission of international price shocks to real exchange rates. We find that active reserve management not only lowers the short-run impact of CTOT shocks significantly, but also affects the long-run adjustment of REER, effectively lowering its volatility. We also show that relatively small increases in the average holdings of reserves by Latin American economies (to levels still well below other emerging regions current averages) would provide a policy tool as effective as a fixed exchange rate regime in insulating the economy from CTOT shocks. Reserve management could be an effective alternative to fiscal or currency policies for relatively trade closed countries and economies with relatively poor institutions or high government debt. Finally, we analyze the effects of active use of reserve accumulation aimed at smoothing REERs. The result support the view that "leaning against the wind" is potent, but more effective when intervening to support weak currencies rather than intervening to slow down the pace of real appreciation. The active reserve management reduces substantially REER volatility.

This study examines whether Jamaica's free public healthcare policy affected health status and labor supply of adult individuals. It compares outcomes of adults without health insurance versus their insured counterparts, before and after policy implementation. The study finds that the policy reduced both the likelihood of suffering illnesses with associated lost work days and the number of lost days due to illnesses by 28.6 percent and 34 percent, respectively. Consistent with the absence of "employment lock", no effects are found on employment at the extensive margin. However, consistent with a reduced number of days lost due to illnesses, there is a positive effect of 2.15 additional weekly labor hours. This is primarily a labor supply effect as the study shows that both reported and imputed hourly wages decreased by 0.15 and 0.06 log-points respectively. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the policy added a yearly average of US$PPP 26.6 million worth of net real production to the economy during the period 2008-12.

This document studies the economic effect of windfall gains by examining a Peruvian natural experiment. The Camisea Fund for Socioeconomic Development (FOCAM) is an inter-governmental fiscal transfer scheme that allocates natural gas royalties generated by the Camisea Gas Project to eligible subnational governments. We exploit the rules governing FOCAM allocation to identify the effect of the transfers on municipal accounts, local infrastructure, and economic development. Using a newly constructed district- level dataset for the years 2005 and 2012, we find evidence of positive impacts on municipal capital expenditures and local infrastructure. However, we also find evidence of a negative impact on municipal current expenditures. More specifically, we find that municipalities with low absorptive capacity coped with the increased administrative burden of FOCAM transfers by reallocating administrative effort toward (away from) executing capital (current) expenditures.

This paper examines the effects of the Chile Solidario programme on labour market outcomes from a gender perspective. Chile Solidario was implemented as the main anti-poverty programme in Chile in 2002. The purpose of this conditional cash transfer is to provide poor families with auxiliary social services, including support for employment. We compare the gender impact of Chile Solidario using difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity design estimations based on data from the Chile Solidario Panel Survey. We find that the programme has a strong impact on labour market outcomes. However, the positive effects are particularly important for women subjects in the beneficiary families only after the achievement of the conditionalities imposed by the programme. This analysis suggests that cash transfers should be targeted more specifically to women's needs to contribute to their empowerment.

This study investigates the productivity of Brazilian manufacturing industries, particularly addressing the influence of liberalization on productivity. We first calculate total factor productivity (TFP) by estimating the stochastic frontier production function and the inefficiency determination equation simultaneously. Then TFP growth rates are regressed on openness-related variables and other firm characteristics. The results show that firm openness to the world is a crucial determinant of their productivity. Data used for this study were obtained from the Investment Climate Survey, provided by the World Bank.

Private sector initiatives certifying that producers of goods and services adhere to defined environmental process standards are increasingly popular worldwide. According to proponents, they can circumvent chronic barriers to effective public sector environmental regulation in developing countries. But eco-certification programs will have limited effects on producers’ environmental performance if, as one would expect, they select for those already meeting certification standards. Rigorous evaluations of the environmental effects of eco-certification in developing countries that control for selection bias are rare. We use plant-level data on more than 80,000 Mexican facilities to determine whether ISO 14001 series certification of environmental management systems boosts regulatory compliance. We use propensity score matching to control for nonrandom selection into the program. We find that plants recently fined by environmental regulators were more likely to be certified, all other things equal, but that certified plants were subsequently fined just as often as similar uncertified plants. These results suggest that in Mexico, the ISO 14001 program attracts dirty plants under pressure from regulators — not just relatively clean ones — but does not have a large, lasting impact on their regulatory compliance.