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While the COVID-19 pandemic had a large and asymmetric impact on firms, many countries quickly enacted massive business rescue programs which are specifically targeted to smaller firms. Little is known about the effects of such policies on business entry and exit, factor reallocation, and macroeconomic outcomes. This paper builds a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous and financially constrained firms in order to evaluate the short- and long-term consequences of small firm rescue programs in a pandemic recession. We calibrate the stationary equilibrium and the pandemic shock to the U.S. economy, taking into account the factual Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) as a specific grant policy. We find that the policy has only a small impact on aggregate employment because (i) jobs are saved predominately in less productive firms that account for a small share of employment and (ii) the grant induces a reallocation of resources away from larger and less impacted firms. Much of this reallocation happens in the aftermath of the pandemic episode. While a universal grant reduces the firm exit rate substantially, a targeted policy is not only more cost-effective, it also largely prevents the creation of “zombie firms" whose survival is socially inefficient.

We identify US defense news shocks as shocks that best explain future moviments in defense spending over a five-year horizon and are orthogonal to current defense spending. Our identified shocks are strongly correlated with the Ramey (2011) news shocks, but explain a larger share of macroeconomic fluctuations and have significant demand effects. Fiscal news induces significant and persistent increases in output, consumption, investment, hours and the interest rate. Standard DSGE models fail to produce such a pattern. We propose a sticky price model with variable capital utilization, capital adjustment costs, and rule-of-thumb consumers that replicates the empirical findings and allows us to test the validity of our methodology for extracting anticipated fiscal shocks from the data.

Political economy theory expects that changes in macroeconomic governance are often catalyzed by institutional factors, such as partisanship, elections, or International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditionality. I challenge and contextualize this view by incorporating the role of technocratic advisors into a domestic policy-making framework. I contend that presidents from countries with crisis legacies are more likely to appoint mainstream economists that pursue budget discipline. Employing an originally constructed dataset, the Index of Economic Advisors, I conduct an econometric test of sixteen Latin American countries from 1961 to 2011. I find that politicians are most likely to appoint mainstream economists who embrace fiscal rectitude in countries with inflation-crisis legacies. Furthermore, these crisis legacies are enduring given the severity of inflationary trauma relative to other types of domestic economic volatility in Latin America. In fact, these effects hold when controlling for both historical and contemporaneous shocks to unemployment. Resumen Las teorias de la economia politica esperan que los cambios en la gobernanza macroeconomica sean frecuentemente catalizados por factores institucionales, como la afiliacion partidaria, las elecciones o la condicionalidad del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). Aqui desafio y contextualizo este punto de vista incorporando el papel de los asesores tecnocraticos en el analisis de la elaboracion de politicas nacionales. Sostengo que los presidentes de paises con experiencia en crisis son mas propensos a nombrar a economistas convencionales que buscan imponer disciplina presupuestaria. Usando una base de datos original, el Indice de Asesores Economicos, realizo un analisis econometrico de dieciseis paises latinoamericanos de 1961 a 2011. Encuentro que los politicos son mas propensos a designar economistas convencionales que adopten posiciones fiscales ortodoxas en paises con experiencia de crisis inflacionarias. Ademas, estas experiencias de trauma inflacionario tienen efectos mas duraderos porque son mas graves en comparacion con otros tipos de volatilidad economica interna en America Latina. Estos efectos se mantienen cuando se controla tambien por shocks de desempleo historicos y contemporaneos.

We assess the effects of reforms in product and labor markets in a model economy featuring credit restrictions and pre-existing long-term debt. Both elements, which are core features of the current scenario faced by some euro area countries, combine to produce a slow and protracted deleveraging of the private sector and a persistent recession following a negative financial shock. In this environment, we show that product and labor market reforms may stimulate output and employment even in the short run, despite their defl ationary effects. Furthermore, by favoring a faster recovery of investment and collateral values, product market reforms bring forward the end of deleveraging and the exit from recession.

In the early 2000s, eight Norwegian energy producing municipalities sold up to ten years of future electricity earnings and let two brokers from Terra Securities make investments on their behalf. In the wake of the 2007 credit crash the municipalities lost up to 80 percent of their assets. This paper uses a difference in difference analysis to show that this tightening of the local government budget, and accompanying uncertainty about future economic outcomes, led to a reduction in private consumption of around 2 percent in 2008. I show that the response is driven by households who are the largest recipients of public services - the young and the elderly. The reduction in consumption is a result of households saving more, and not a direct consequence of changes in their disposable income. I also find that households in the affected municipalities rebalance their portfolios to holding a lower share of risky assets. The results are interpreted as households holding back consumption, and reallocating towards safer assets, until uncertainty regarding fiscal outcomes is resolved. På tidlig 2000-tallet gikk åtte norske vannkraftskommuner med på en investeringsplan med to meglere fra Terra Securities. Meglerne administrerte store investeringer for kommunene, og under kredittkrisen i 2007 tapte de opp mot 80 prosent av de investerte beløpene. Disse tapene kom som en overraskelse på både politikerne og den lokale befolkningen. Siden tapene etter norsk lov måtte dekkes innen fire år, var det gjennom 2008 stor usikkerhet rundt hva konsekvensene ville bli for tjenestetilbud, jobber og videre drift i de rammede kommunene. Mot slutten av 2008 fikk de hardest rammede kommunene innvilget ekstrardinære skjønnsmidler for å kunne opprettholde det lovlig pålagte nivået på tjensteytingen. Dette markerte på mange måter slutten på perioden med usikkerhet, siden det ble etablert at staten ville komme kommunene til unnsetning og ikke tillate for store negative konsekvenser av hendelsen. Artikkelen studerer hvordan husholdninger tilpasset sitt konsum under perioden hvor den finansielle framtiden til kommunen var preget av usikkerhet. Fra registerdata aggregert til familienivå benyttes informasjon om inntekt og endringer i fomue til å imputere konsum for husholdninger. Ved å benytte et difference-in-difference oppsett, hvor jeg sammenligner husholdninger i de rammede kommunene med husholdninger fra andre vannkraftskommuner med like finansielle- og populasjonskarakteristikker (basert på KOSTRA-klassifisering), finner jeg at det private konsumet i de hardest rammede kommunene falt med om lag 2 prosent. I de tre kommunene som tapte penger, men enkelt klarte å dekke tapene uten å havne under statlig administrasjon eller be om ekstraordinære skjønnsmidler, er det ingen signifikant effekt på konsumet. Ved å studere kategorier av finansielle eiendeler og inntekt, viser jeg at det er økt sparing, og ikke redusert inntekt, som genererer det reduserte konsumet. Dette er i tråd med tidligere funn av Aaberge, Liu og Zhu (2016) og Giavazzi og McMahon (2012), som studerer lignende hendelser. Funnene har tydelige implikasjoner for økonomisk politikk i perioder med økt usikkerhet og lavt konsum. Dersom konsumet, og dermed den generelle økonomiske aktiviteten, er lav i en nedgangsperiode preget av usikkerhet, bør myndighetene gjøre det de kan for å skape forutsigbarhet og trygghet. Økonomiske stimulansepakker kan derimot være ineffektive om usikkerheten er høy, da disse vil ha mindre gjennomslag i totalkonsum som følge av at konsumtilbøyeligheten er lav.

There is substantial disagreement about the consequences of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, which constitutes the most extensive tax reform in the United States in more than 30 years. Using a large-scale two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities, the authors find that the TCJA increases GDP by about 2% in the medium-run and by about 2.5% in the long-run. The short-run impact depends crucially on the degree and costs of variable capital utilization, with GDP effects ranging from 1 to 3%. At the same time, the TCJA does not pay for itself. In the analysis, the reform decreases tax revenues and raises the debt-to-GDP ratio by about 15 percentage points in the medium-run until 2025. The show that combining the TCJA with spending cuts can dampen the increase in government indebtedness without reducing its expansionary effect.

We investigate whether the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) can explain UK inflation in the 1970s. We confront the identification problem involved by setting up the FTPL as a structural model for the episode and pitting it against an alternative Orthodox model; the models have a reduced form that is common in form but, because each model is over-identified, numerically distinct. We use indirect inference to test which model could be generating the VECM approximation to the reduced form that we estimate on the data for the episode. Neither model is rejected, though the FTPL model substantially outperforms the Orthodox. But by far the best account of the period assumes that expectations were a probability-weighted combination of the two regimes. Fiscal policy has a substantial role in this weighted model in determining inflation. A similar model accounts for the 1980s but this role of fiscal policy is much diminished.

The debate on secular stagnation suffers from vagueness and several shortcomings, which affect its economic policy implications. In this work we provide an alternative view on the advanced economies’ tendencies to stagnation, based on Josef Steindl’s contributions. Steindl’s pioneering 1952 book in particular is not prone to several problems that affect the current debate on secular stagnation. It does not rely on the dubious notion of an equilibrium real interest rate as the equilibrating force of saving and investment at full employment levels. Rather, it is based on the notion that modern capitalist economies face aggregate demand constraints, and that saving adjusts to investment through income growth and changes in capacity utilisation in the long run. Steindl’s treatment allows for potential growth to become endogenous to actual demand, and it seriously considers the role of institutions and power relationships for long-run growth. In illustrating Steindl’s contributions on this topic, the article presents an original model synthetizing the main points in particular concerning long run growth and stagnation. JEL codes: B22, E11, E12, E65, O11, PSL Quarterly Review, V. 69, N. 276 (2016): March

A major source of insurance coverage for non-elderly adults in the US is the employer-based health insurance market. Every participant in this market receives a tax subsidy because premiums are excluded from taxable income. However, people have different incentives to participate in the employer-based pool - since premiums are independent of individual risk, high-risk individuals receive implicit cross-subsidies from low-risk individuals. In this paper, we explore several ways to reform the tax subsidy by taking this implicit cross-subsidization into account. Using a general equilibrium heterogeneous agents model, we find that even though the complete elimination of the tax subsidy leads to the unraveling of the employer-based pool, there is still room for substantial savings by targeting the tax subsidy. More specifically, the same level of risk-sharing in the employer-based market can be achieved at onethird of the current costs if i) the tax subsidy is targeted only towards low-risk individuals who have weak incentives to participate in the pool, and ii) employer-based insurance premiums become age-adjusted. To improve the welfare outcome of this reform, the modified tax subsidy should also be targeted to low-income individuals., JEL Classification Codes: D91, E65, H24, http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/porapakkarm-ponpoje/

What drives the US current account imbalances? Is there solid evidence that the behavior of the current account is different during deficits and surpluses or that the size of the imbalance matters? Is there a threshold relationship between the US current account and its main drivers? We estimate a threshold model to answer these questions using the instrumental variable estimation proposed by Caner and Hansen (2004). Rather than concluding that the size or the sign of (previous) external imbalances matters, we find that time is the most important threshold variable. One regime exists before and another one exists after the third quarter of 1997, a period that coincides with the onset of the Asian financial crisis and the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997. Statistically significant determinants in the second regime are the fiscal surplus, productivity, productivity volatility, oil prices, the real exchange rate, and the real interest rate. Productivity has become a more important driver since 1997.

The hard coal mining industry in the European Union (EU) is in decline, mostly due to a lack of price competitiveness. It is maintained, to a great extent, by state aid; a key objective of the industry’s existence is to provide energy security and guarantee employment in the mining regions. In Poland, the hard coal mining industry is currently undergoing a serious crisis that threatens the two largest mining enterprises with bankruptcy. In addition, due to the European Union’s restrictions concerning the circumstances of granting state aid, these enterprises cannot count on the financial support for the repair restructuring that they used on a large scale until 2011. Therefore, in this article, the main objective is to determine the influence of state aid on the competitiveness of the hard coal mining industry in 12 countries of the EU, including Poland in specific. In order to achieve the stated objective, the article is divided into three parts. The first part consists of a literature review and legal regulations that are related to state aid for the hard coal mining industry in the EU are presented. The second part identifies the amount of state aid for the mining industry in the examined countries. Next, the influence of the state aid on the economic-financial conditions and competitiveness of the industry in the examined countries is examined. The third assesses the financial results of 24 Polish hard coal mines. The data of Eurostat and EURACOAL were used in the research. Furthermore, the primary data from the Polish mines of power hard coal were also used. The research methodology includes the indicators from the area of effectiveness and productivity assessment, as well as production quality assessment in the mining industry. The research results make it possible to extend knowledge in the range of the influence of the state on the competitiveness of the traditional industries and their restructuring.

В анализируемый период в России в целом сохраняется неопределенность финансовой политики. В цен- тре внимания – разработанный Правительством РФ проект антикризисных мер.

Результаты декомпозиции роста показателя выпуска свидетельствуют о том, что в 2014 г., как и ранее, увеличение валовой добавленной стоимости (ВДС) промышленного производства достигается за счет наращивания экстенсивных факторов. По предварительным оценкам темпы роста совокуп- ной факторной производительности (СФП) основных промышленных видов экономической деятель- ности отрицательны. В структуре затрат основных факторов промышленности в 2014 г. домини- рующую роль играют затраты капитала; изменения затрат труда в промышленном производстве характеризуются увеличением как запасов труда (численности занятых), так и интенсивности их использования (отработанного времени).

The following developments marked the period under review: the Gaidar Forum 2015 was held in Moscow on January 14–16, the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting was held in Davos (Switzerland) on January 21–23, 2015, as well as a draft document of anti -crisis measures aimed at tackling the impact of economic sanctions on the Russian economy was prepared by Russia’s government and submitted on January 21 to the President of Russia, having regard to a more than two-fold fall of crude oil prices (to $46 a barrel early in 2015 from $110 early in 2014) and the ruble’s depreciation against world currencies. The anti -crisis measures haven’t yet been embodied in a consistent manner in the fi scal legislation (although a few fi scal laws were adopted on a fast-track basis to cope with the adverse developments in the foreign exchange market), they are scheduled for consideration at the State Duma in February 2015.

Основными событиями анализируемого периода стали Гайдаровский форум в Москве с 14 по 16 января 2015 г., Международный форум в Давосе (Швейцария) с 21 по 23 января 2015 г., а также подготовка правительством РФ и представление президенту РФ 21 января проекта антикризисных мероприятий по преодолению последствий влияния на экономику России экономических санкций с учетом более чем двукратного снижения цены на нефть (со 110 долл. за стандартную бочку в начале 2014 г. до 46 долл. в начале 2015 г.) и падения курса рубля относительно мировых валют. В налоговом и бюджетном за- конодательстве антикризисные меры пока еще не нашли системного отражения (хотя отдельные налоговые законы были приняты в срочном порядке для пресечения негативных явлений на валютном рынке), их рассмотрение в Государственной Думе намечено на февраль 2015 г.

President Vladimir Putin’s annual televised call-in show was held in the period under review. The Russian government economic and social blocs discussed whether to keep or revoke the compulsory funded component in the contribution to the Russian Pension Fund1. Meanwhile, a decision was made to recover, effective 1.01.2016, the funded pension component. Presumably, Russia would apply to the World Bank for a due diligence of the Russian pension system. The Russian Finance Ministry has prepared a draft “The Main Guidelines of Tax Policy for 2016–2018”, which provides for no tax increase until 2018.

Russia’s government began to implement its anticrisis plan for 2015 by adopting specifi c documents in the period under review. Despite its pro-market rhetorical statements, the government has so far taken no substantial steps towards economic reforms and enhancing the business environment in the country. At a meeting with representatives of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), President Putin warned the businessmen that their assets in foreign jurisdictions might be frozen; confi rmed the federal government’s endeavor to grant an amnesty to the capital returned to Russia; and agreed with the RSPP point of view on the need to synchronize the coming into eff ect of a capital amnesty bill with the Tax Code provisions concerning the taxation of the income of controlled foreign corporations (CFCs) and the submission of respective notifications to Russia’s tax authorities. A document, which invites some questions, concerning draft amendments to the Federal Budget Law for 2015 and the Planning Period of 2016–2017 was submitted to the State Duma for consideration.

В анализируемый период состоялась прямая линия Президента РФ В. Путина с гражданами России. В правительстве РФ между экономическим и социальным блоками дискутировался вопрос относительно сохранения или отказа от обязательной накопительной составляющей взноса в ПФР1. Пока принято решение с 01.01.2016 г. восстановить накопительную часть. Предположительно, РФ обратится с запросам во Всемирный банк об экспертизе пенсионной системы в РФ. Минфин России подготовил проект «Основных направлений налоговой политики на 2016–2018 годы», согласно которому увеличения налогов вплоть до 2018 г. не планируется.

In the period under review, a large number of regulatory documents aimed at coping with crisis phenomena in the economy were released. The main guidelines for the RF Government’s acIn the period under review, a large number of regulatory documents aimed at coping with crisis phenomena in the economy were released. The main guidelines for the RF Government’s activities in the period till 2018 (the revised version as of 14 May 2015) and Federal Law No.87-FZ of 20 April 2015 on The Reporting by the Government of the Russian Federation and Information by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Implementation of the Plan of Priority Measures Aimed at Ensuring of Sustained Development of the Economy and Social Stability in 2015 were approved; fi nancial agencies approved documents aimed at preventi on of channels of tax evasion (unfortunately, not always indisputable ones); explanations on application of provisions of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation were prepared and regulatory documents of other economic agencies dealing with organization of economic relations in present-day conditions were released. In our view, in the situation of fi nancial instability one of the most complicated and topical lines of the RF Government’s activities is development of the strategy of behavior in respect of natural monopolies and other state monopolies which operate in the economy.vities in the period till 2018 (the revised version as of 14 May 2015) and Federal Law No.87-FZ of 20 April 2015 on The Reporting by the Government of the Russian Federation and Information by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Implementation of the Plan of Priority Measures Aimed at Ensuring of Sustained Development of the Economy and Social Stability in 2015 were approved; fi nancial agencies approved documents aimed at prevention of channels of tax evasion (unfortunately, not always indisputable ones); explanations on application of provisions of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation were prepared and regulatory documents of other economic agencies dealing with organization of economic relations in present-day conditions were released. In our view, in the situation of fi nancial instability one of the most complicated and topical lines of the RF Government’s activities is development of the strategy of behavior in respect of natural monopolies and other state monopolies which operate in the economy.

In the period under review, the situation in Russia remained relatively stable. Ministries and agencies worked on technical up-dating of the existing schemes and mechanisms of organization of economic relations and issued explanatory documents; higher judicial authorities analyzed problems which market entiti es encountered with in their activities and took decisions aimed at fi lling of the gaps in the legislation and had explanations as regards law enforcement practice published. The rules and principles of organization of interaction between the authorities, business and other taxpayers were tightened: companies registered in off -shores were barred from participating in state procurement1, responsibility of managers of state-run corporations and entities with state par cipation for state property management2 were strengthened; eff orts to carry out market commercialization of large state projects were observed, time-limits were reduced and rules of recognition of property as vacant were set for immediate integration of that property in the economic turnover and responsibility of owners for timely disclosure and registration of their titles to real property in the Russian Federation was increased – all the above measures generally contributed to formation of a stable base of the budget system of all the levels.

The article takes as its starting point the similarities between the current situation in the euro area and that prevailing in Japan for the last two decades, namely slow economic growth and low – or even negative – inflation. Owing to the fact that Japan’s deflation, although persistent, has remained moderate and the economy has not fallen into a deflationary spiral, it can actually be argued that the Japanese economy shifted to a new equilibrium situation between the early 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s. In this new equilibrium, the nominal interest rate is close to its zero lower bound and inflation negative, but, just like before, the real growth rate is around its potential level. Yet it seems that this new equilibrium is not without costs. A deflationary regime like Japan’s effectively reduces the central bank’s capacity to support economic activity in the event of an adverse shock and thus increases the risk of secular stagnation. Taking this into account, the so-called ‘Abenomics’ economic programme introduced in April 2013 is aimed precisely at putting an end to the long period of deflation that Japan has gone through and at stimulating the economy while ensuring the long-term sustainability of the country’s public debt. Three major lessons can be drawn from the Japanese experience over the last 25 years. First of all, prevention is better than cure when it comes to financial crises. Secondly, it is crucial to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored. Thirdly, it is important to react to a balance-sheet recession in a prompt and well-coordinated way, so as to maximise the impact of the measures adopted and to facilitate the adjustments that must be made. Moreover, all areas of macroeconomic policy should be brought into play to support both the supply and demand sides. Lastly, events in Japan show that the costs of deflation depend very much on the specific features of an economy, and more specifically on its nominal flexibility.

Российская экономика, по мнению Минэкономразвития России, «нащупала дно, и итоги IV квартала будут заметно лучше III»1. Показательно, что ситуация конца августа практически зеркально отображает ситуацию конца декабря 2014 г., но паники пока не случилось. Резервы остаются на уровне 362 млрд долл., ЦБ РФ не вмешивается в установление курса рубля. Некоторые предприятия по итогам 1-го полугодия начали показывать прибыль, что несколько улучшило ситуацию с региональными бюджетами – начали поступать авансовые платежи по налогу на прибыль.

The article presents the brief overview of the results of privatization in Russia during the period from 1995 to 2013. The privatization of the largest state companies is covered, large-scale privatization deals of the last two years are considered as highly efficient. The paper provides the comparative analysis of the standard or mass privatization mechanism of state (municipal) property and the individual approach to the privatization of the biggest companies with state participation. Based on the results of the analysis the number of criteria is suggested in order to objectively determine by what mechamism (classic or individual) the privatization should take place.

В анализируемый период Минфином России были представлены основные направления налоговой политики на 2016 год и плановый период 2017–2018 годы (далее – Основные направления), которые декларируют отказ от усиления налоговой нагрузки на экономику и предусматривают меры, на- правленные, по мнению авторов, на стимулирование экономического развития России. Перспективы развития бизнеса в России стали основной темой Петербургского международного экономического форума (18–20 июня 2015 г.).

В анализируемый период основным событием, определившим вектор экономического развития РФ, безусловно, стало почти двукратное обесценение национальной валюты на фоне снижения нефтя-ных котировок.

В рассматриваемый период вышло большое количество нормативных документов, направленных на преодоление кризисных явлений в экономике. Были утверждены Основные направления деятельности Правительства РФ на период до 2018 г. (новая редакция от 14.05.2015), принят Федеральный закон от 20.04.2015 № 87-ФЗ «Об отчете Правительства Российской Федерации и информации Центрального банка Российской Федерации о реализации плана первоочередных мероприятий по обеспечению устойчивого развития экономики и социальной стабильности в 2015 году», финансовыми ведомствами при- няты документы, направленные на пресечение каналов налоговых уклонений (к сожалению, не всегда бесспорные), подготовлены разъяснения по применению положений НК РФ, вышли нормативные документы других экономических ведомств, регулирующие вопросы организации экономических отношений в современных условиях.

During the period under review, November-December 2013, fiscal policy guidelines were formulated in the President’s Address to the Federal Assembly on 12.12.2013 and his speech at the 9th Annual Press Conference on 19.12.2013. In particular, new tax schemes and allowances were announced. In our opinion, change of task priorities and reorientation of federal financial entities to support a sustainable revenue base of the state is vital amid stagnation. Develop a free market, ensure efficient performance of market players is critical in pursuing the foregoing aims. Financial regulation of the economy goes beyond taxes. The greatest challenge is counteract economic monopolies.

Over the period under consideration, Russia continued to be faced with uncertainty in the sphere of fi nancial policy. The anti -crisis package put forth by the RF Government was the focus of attention.

В анализируемый период антикризисный план правительства РФ на 2015 г. начал реализовываться в виде конкретных документов. Руководство страны, несмотря на прорыночную риторику, пока не предприняло значимых шагов по реформированию экономики и улучшению бизнес-климата. На встрече с представителями Российского союза промышленников и предпринимателей (РСПП) президент РФ В.В. Путин предупредил бизнесменов о возможности «заморозки» их средств, размещенных в иностранных юрисдикциях; подтвердил намерение руководства РФ по проведению амнистии капиталов, возвращаемых в РФ; а также согласился с мнением РСПП о целесообразности синхронизации вступления в силу законодательства по амнистии капиталов и положений Налогового кодекса РФ о налого- обложении доходов контролируемых иностранных компаний (КИК) и представлении соответствующих уведомлений в налоговые органы РФ1. В Госдуму представлен проект изменений в Закон о федеральном бюджете на 2015 г. и плановый период 2016–2017 гг., который вызывает некоторые вопросы.

The Russian economy, according to the Russian Economic Development Ministry, “has hit the bottom, and Q4 results will be markedly bett er than the Q3 ones”. It is telling that the situation developed at the end of August almost mirrors that at the end of December 2014, but there has been no panic so far. Russia’s international reserves remain at $362bn, the Russian Central Bank has not interfered with the ruble exchange rate. As of H1 end, 2015, some enterprises have began to show profi ts, thus contributting to a better picture of regional budgets which have begun to receive advanced payments on the profit tax.

В анализируемый период ситуация в России сохранялась относительно стабильной. Министерства и ведомства вели работу по технической доработке действующих схем и механизмов организации эко- номических взаимоотношений, выпускали разъяснительные документы; высшие судебные инстанции изучали возникающие в практической деятельности субъектов рынка проблемы и принимали реше- ния, направленные на восполнение пробелов в законодательстве, публиковали разъяснения по право- применительной практике. Ужесточены правила и принципы организации взаимоотношений между властью, бизнесом, прочими налогоплательщиками: от участия в госзакупках отстранены компании с местом регистрации в офшорах1, усилена ответственность руководителей госкорпораций и орга- низаций с госучастием за управление госимуществом2, отмечаются попытки рыночной коммерциали- зации крупных государственных проектов, сокращены сроки и установлены правила признания недви- жимости бесхозяйной для обеспечения оперативного вовлечения ее в хозяйственный оборот, а также повышения ответственности собственников за своевременное раскрытие и регистрацию своих прав на недвижимость, находящуюся в РФ, – все это в целом способствует формированию устойчивой ба- зы бюджетной системы всех уровней.

This paper reports the results of estimating a Markov-Switching New Keynesian (MSNK) model using Bayesian methods. The broadest and best fitting MSNK model is a four-regime model allowing independent changes in the regimes governing monetary policy and the volatility of the shocks. We use the estimates to investigate the mechanisms that lead to a decline in the persistence of inflation. We show that the population moment describing the serial correlation of inflation is a weighted average of the autocorrelation parameters of the exogenous shocks. Changes in the monetary or shock volatility regimes shift weight over these serial correlation parameters and affect the serial correlation properties of inflation. Estimation results indicate that a shift to a monetary regime that reacts more aggressively to inflation reduces the weight on the more persistent shocks, so lowers inflation persistence. Similarly, a shift to the low-volatility regime reduces the weight on the more persistent shocks and also contributes to reducing inflation persistence. Estimates of model-implied inflation persistence indicate that it began rising in the late 1960s and peaked around the Volcker disinflation. The subsequent decline in persistence is due to both a more aggressive monetary policy regime and less volatile shocks.

Each extension of the scope of laws and principles that allow both mathematical and statistical remodeling as well as reaffirming the appropriateness of proven methods, stirs up a special study interest. The ever-expanding computational power of laws of power offers to the scientific universe possibility of new approach to the crucial relationship between quantity and quality, between micro and macro dimensions. Boosting broadening the use of quasi-universal value theories in research in order to deepen the analysis of sustainable development indicators can lead to a greater understanding of all aspects of this area and to facilitate understanding of the arguments which underlie any responsible decision making. This assumption underlies the logical conclusion that sustainability becomes even stronger as it benefits from scientific arguments support resulting from research. Although we have confined ourselves in drafting some coordinates for application of each method presented to particular issues of sustainable development, this research theme will be strengthened and pursued through appropriate extensive analysis.

This paper estimates the long-term effects of the global recession of 2008–2009 on output in 23 countries. I measure these effects by comparing current estimates of potential output from the OECD and IMF to the path that potential was following in 2007, according to estimates at the time. The losses in potential output range from almost nothing in Australia and Switzerland to more than 30 percent in Greece, Hungary, and Ireland; the average loss, weighted by economy size, is 8.4 percent. Most countries have experienced strong hysteresis effects: shortfalls of actual output from pre-recession trends have reduced potential output almost one-for-one. In the hardest-hit economies, the current growth rate of potential is depressed, implying that the extent of lost potential is growing over time.

I evaluate the effect of inflation targeting on inflation and how it interacts with product market deregulation during the disinflationary process in the 1990s. Using a sample of 21 OECD countries, I show that, after controlling for product market deregulation, the effect of inflation targeting is quantitatively important and statistically significant. Moreover, product market deregulation also matters in particular in countries that adopted an inflation targeting regime. I propose a New Keynesian Phillips curve with an explicit role for market deregulation to rationalize the empirical evidence.

From 1980 to 1992, emerging and developing countries grew by 3.4 percent per year. Their annual rate of growth increased to 5.4 percent between 1993 and 2012. No such increase occurred for advanced nations, whose average growth from 1980 to 2012 was roughly constant (excluding the impact of the 2008-2009 Recession). Developing nations turned themselves around by embracing discipline-sustained commitment to a pragmatic and flexible growth strategy. Three illustrations of discipline through the lens of trade, fiscal, and debt reforms in the developing world offer relevant, practical lessons for recovery in advanced economies and continued catch-up growth in developing nations.

After almost a quarter of a century since the fall of the Berlin wall, Germany has undoubtedly become the uncontested nerve-centre of the European Union (EU) in both economic and political terms, evolving not only as Europe’s most important economic power, but also as its de facto leader in terms of economic policy. Considering the negative consequences generated by the severe sovereign debt crisis that hit EU and Eurozone specifically and the further risks that this has provoked, reshaping Europe’s architecture became of vital importance for the future of European integration. Under these circumstances, major changes are needed in order to redesign EU’s configuration with a view to better withstanding the potential future crisis, to accomplish budget consolidation and to implement structural reforms in support of a deeper integration. The present paper aims to highlight the importance of Germany’s pivotal role in such a complex process and the necessity for it to exercise more leadership in order to help Europe to overcome the crisis and conflicts. Furthermore, our analysis emphasizes Germany’s current economic strength and its new geopolitical weightiness, factors that endow the biggest European economy to take the lead more decisively in the interest of safeguarding and farther developing the UE.

The most noteworthy developments over the period under consideration, against the backdrop of ever growing economic sanctions being imposed by the West and the resulting capital outlow from Russia, are the assertion, by Russian authorities, of lack of any intention on their part to further increase the tax burden, as well as the measures suggested by the RF Ministry of Finance for the purpose of further de-off shoriza?? on of Russia’s economy, as well as measures designed to increase the economic responsibility of Russian organizations acting as tax agents responsible for proper transfer of dividends and interest due to foreign investors on the basis of tax exemption mechanism in those instances when the said foreign investors are not iden?? fi ed in accordance with Russian legislation as genuine beneficiaries (owners) of such incomes.

Payment service providers passed the transaction tax on to their clients in several steps and to a significant degree, both in the spring, upon introduction of the tax, and in the autumn, when the rates of tax were raised. For cash withdrawals and bank transfers, the tax was typically passed on by being charged against the transaction directly. The tax was passed on directly at a much lower average rate among card purchases; however, the annual fees of payment cards were increased considerably. Moreover, in contrast to the claims made by banks in their communication, the tax was passed on in full or, for some banks, at an even greater rate in both spring and autumn. In the period between December 2012 and October 2013, total increases in payment fees exceeded the level justified by the transaction tax. Payment statistics for Hungary for the first half of 2013 do not suggest a deviation from the trends of earlier years, as electronic transactions continue to slowly gain ground and the use of cash declines. Accordingly, the introduction of the transaction tax did not affect the development path of the payments structure in Hungary either positively or negatively in this period. There appeared to be no significant adjustment among corporate payments in the first half of 2013 following introduction of the transaction tax: the data reported by Hungarian banks shows no signs of relocation of payments abroad or the merger of transactions in order to reach the tax threshold. Nevertheless, on account of the increase in the transaction tax rate in August 2013, the analysis of adjustment should be repeated once the figures for the second half of 2013 become available.

The paper is focused to the problem of external performances measurement of management in agribusiness. The measurement is discussed in terms of the needs of public and commercial development institutions, researchers and other development actors. The main goal is to design a coherent set of indicators for external analysis of the problems and processes of business development, as well as monitoring of the reforms and the allocation of development resources in accordance with the criteria of an open market economy (in particular, the analysis of the eff ectiveness of public support for I&R activities, subsidies and subsidized loans to fi nance the production of food for export in terms of broader socio-economic objectives). The methodology is derived based on the analysis of problems and controversies that accompany the structural adjustment of agricultural industry in Eastern Croatia and AP Vojvodina in the period from year 2015 till 2030/2035. The presented matter, in addition to an introduction nd a conclusion, divided into four parts. The first part is focused to researching the structure of management performances indicators in the context of the needs of more effective external regulation of agribusiness. The focus of the second part is on the selection of principles for concretization of contents of indicators for performances measurement of management in agribusiness. The base is a holistic approach to solving this problem. The third part shows the author’s view of the problems and challenges of their implementation and consequently, establishment of rules that should guide the public and commercial development institutions in the awarding of subsidies, loans and providing the technical support. In the fourth section is given a critical evaluation of conditions of their operationalization.

В анализируемый период, ноябрь-декабрь 2013 г., основные направления налоговой политики были сформулированы в Послании Президента РФ Федеральному Собранию 12.12.2013 г. и в его выступлении на девятой ежегодной пресс-конференции 19.12.2013 г. В их числе анонсированы, в частности, новые налоговые схемы и льготы. Принципиально важной в условиях стагнации, по нашему мнению, являет¬ся смена приоритетов задач федеральных финансовых структур, их переориентация на поддержание устойчивой доходной базы государства. В этих целях решающим является развитие свободного рын¬ка, обеспечение эффективной деятельности субъектов рынка. Вопросы финансового регулирования экономики не исчерпываются налогами. Наиболее сложная задача – борьба с экономическими моно¬полиями.

Meeting of the convergence criteria adopted in the Maastricht Treaty allows to ensure the stability of the zone and to increase its position in the international arena. For this to happen, achieving of the required level of convergence must be long-term and based on sound evidence. Greece when it joined the Eurozone has much abused the trust of the European Union (EU) authorities when using false data it secured its place among the other holders of the Euro currency. The intention of the paper is to present basing on the example of Greece, the importance of compliance with the convergence criteria imposed by the European Union, and its purpose is to analyze the causes of the Greek crisis and its impact on the functioning of the Eurozone and the EU.

Over the period under consideration it became evident that the already existing economic problems created by the negative effects, in the sphere of foreign politics, of the Crimea’s incorporation into the Russian Federation have been further aggravated by the deterioration of Russia’s domestic economic situationи. While it had been officially declared that no further steps would be taken to increase the tax burden, the period under consideration saw a continuation of the practice of introducing new bans and constraints for individuals and legal entities alike, as well as legislative consolidation of some additional responsibilities to perform work and render services for the benefit of the power structures. We believe that this practice gives rise to an additional economic burden on citizens and commodity producers, and so it can be regarded as a hidden form of mandatory payments to the power structures.

"La presente investigación tiene por objetivo dilucidar la existencia, en el periodo de 1960 a 2011, de un ciclo político en la economía mexicana, que permita a los gobiernos en turno influir en variables económicas estratégicas durante los procesos electorales, incidir en la decisión de los electores y mantener el poder. Las variables utilizadas fueron el pib real, el gasto público, la base monetaria y la tasa de inflación, con una frecuencia trimestral. Se estimaron dos modelos econométricos, uno por el método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios y otro a través de vectores autorregresivos, para dicho periodo, aunque se construyeron dos subperiodos (1960-1983 y 1984-2011) debido al sobreendeudamiento que registró México en 1982. Los resultados en ambas metodologías sugieren la presencia de tal ciclo político en la economía, aunque los efectos son más significativos en el primer lapso. Se esboza la hipótesis de que los efectos son más débiles en el segundo porque la alternancia política ha sustituido la posibilidad de un impacto general por uno más focalizado en determinados estados y municipios. Finalmente, se presenta una propuesta de modificación al artículo 41 de la Constitución de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, a fin de eliminar las distorsiones económicas que provocan los políticos en tiempos de elecciones."

Октябрь-ноябрь 2014 г. оказался в экономическом плане весьма нестабильным. Быстрое снижение стоимости нефти до уровня ниже 80 долл. за стандартную бочку сопровождалось обесценением кур- са рубля относительно мировых валют примерно на 40%. Сняв ограничения на колебания курса рубля и введя ограничения на доступ к рублевой ликвидности, Банк России в краткосрочной перспективе остановил пике рублевого курса, но, по мнению экспертов, это не следует считать его стабилиза-цией. Был принят целый ряд законов и технических документов по вопросам налогообложения. Не всепринятые решения являются бесспорными и экономически безупречными. Полагаем, что целый рядрешений носит конъюнктурный характер и должен быть переосмыслен.

A widespread controversy raised in the period under review regarding measures of tackling the eff ects of economic sanctions on Russia. In our opinion, decision-making should be based on a comprehensive analysis of potential eff ects of measures proposed by the Russian Government and/or experts. In the period of August to September 2014, the draft budget for 2015 and the planning period of 2016–2017 was drafted on the basis of long-lasting disputes in the Russian Government on the possibility of introducing a sales tax at up to 3% and the delegation of the authority to introduce the tax to the regions, increase in the VAT rate, introduction of a progressive income tax scale1. Considering a possible recession, it was decided not to increase the tax burden of these taxes, which can lead to involuntary weakening of the effective demand. The projections to the draft budget included lifting of limits on the assessment base of contributions to the Federal Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund (FCMIF) (federal budget expenditures on transfers to public social funds were slightly reduced by increasing the burden on manufacturers’ costs on contributions to the FCMIF, thereby making it less scarce as part of the draft for 2015 and 2016–2017 submitted to the State Duma).

В рассматриваемый период произошли события, последствия которых в ближайшей перспективе будут во многом определять действия государства в сфере экономики: Россия перевела на режим предоплаты поставки газа на Украину и подписала Соглашение о вхождении в состав Евразийского союза совместно с Белоруссией и Казахстаном (ЕАЭС). Продолжается дискуссия о порядке налогообложении дивидендов, инициированная Минфином России, а также вновь обсуждается вопрос о восстановлении права Следственного комитета Российской Федерации (СК РФ) самостоятельно возбуждать уголовные дела по налоговым нарушениям.

В анализируемый период следует отметить высокую активность административных структур в сфере нормотворчества по входящим в их компетенцию вопросам. Учитывая сложную ситуацию, в которой оказалась Россия в связи с введенными санкциями, такая активность может быть вызвана двумя обстоятельствами. С одной стороны, необходимостью повышения качества регулятивных документов и схем управления, поскольку в условиях прогнозируемого роста оттока инвестиционных капиталов в 2014 г.1 и снижения в течение 2014 г. стоимости нефти резко возрастает роль государственного финансирования, усиливается конкуренция за ресурсы. С другой стороны, активное нор- мотворчество в условиях кризиса может отражать обострение борьбы различных госструктур за выживание.

В анализируемый период вследствие введенных Россией ограничений на ввоз продовольствия из стран, объявивших санкции в отношении РФ или присоединившихся к экономическим санкциям, был искусственно ограничен внутренний рынок. Это автоматически привело к росту цен на продовольственные товары. Теперь депутатами выдвигаются предложения о законодательном ограничении уровня рентабельности товаров и уровня цен. Если это будет осуществлено, то можно ожидать появления дефицита отдельных видов товаров, поскольку без «железного занавеса» и при росте курса иностранных валют по отношению к рублю российские товары будут вывозиться на те рынки, где за них дадут справедливую рыночную цену, а на российском рынке в итоге останется продукция, не находящая сбыта на других рынках. Таким образом, прямыми административными методами, т.е. вводя регулирование цен, как предлагают депутаты, ситуацию можно только ухудшить – довести ее до прямого распределения продуктов по нормативам «в одни руки» и опять построить население в очередь за едой и товарами первой необходимости. Считаем этот путь тупиковым, неприемлемым - тем более, что в РФ применяются оборотные налоги (НДС) и налоги, исчисляемые от фонда оплаты труда (страховые взносы в государственные внебюджетные фонды), которые обеспечивают автоматическую привязку доходов федерального бюджета (внебюджетных фондов) к темпам роста цен. Полагаем, что сейчас на повестке дня стоят две первоочередные экономические задачи: обеспечить стабильность на длительный период выплат по установленным законодательством социальным обязательствам государства перед населением (в первую очередь пенсиям и пособиям); избежать повышения налогов на товаропроизводителей, роста задолженности по международным обязательствам государства и госкорпораций (включая проценты по долгам).

В анализируемый период развернулась широкая полемика по мерам преодоления последствий введенных экономических санкций для России. Полагаем, что принятие решений должно опираться на всесторонний анализ возможных последствий тех или иных мер, предлагаемых как Правительством РФ, так и экспертами. В августе-сентябре т.г. подготовка проекта бюджета на 2015 г. и плановый период 2016–2017 гг. сопровождалась длительными дискуссиями в Правительстве РФ о возможном введении налога с продаж со ставкой до 3% и передачей права на его установление в регионы, об увеличении ставки НДС, о введении прогрессивной шкалы подоходного налога1. Учитывая возможность рецессии, от увеличения налоговой нагрузки по этим налогам, ведущей к принудительному снижению платежеспособного спроса, отказались. В проектировках к проекту бюджета учтено снятие ограничений с базы обложения взносами в Федеральный фонд медицинского страхования (за счет увеличения нагрузки на расходы товаропроизводителей по взносам в ФФОМС были несколько уменьшены расходы федерального бюджета по перечислению средств в государственные социальные фонды, что позволило снизить его дефицитность в рамках представленного в Госдуму проекта на 2015 г. и 2016–2017 гг.).