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We study three generic clearing arrangements in the presence of two‐sided limited commitment: simple bilateral clearing, segregated collateral clearing through a third party, and—most sophisticated—central counterparty (CCP) clearing. Clearing secures the settlement of obligations from over‐the‐counter forward contracts that smooth the income of risk‐averse traders. Clearing requires collateral to guarantee settlement; this is costly, as it reduces income from investment. More sophisticated clearing arrangements require more collateral. As a result, the welfare gains of CCP clearing may be mostly due to segregation, while mutualization of losses could contribute little to welfare.

Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997–2010, this paper finds that small business lending is an unimportant determinant of small business and overall economic activity. A shift-share style research design is implemented to predict county-level lending shocks using variation in preexisting bank market shares and bank supply shifts. Counties with negative predicted lending shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations, indicating that it is costly to switch lenders. However, small business loan originations have an economically insignificant and generally statistically insignificant impact on both small firm and overall employment during the Great Recession and normal times. (JEL E32, E44, E52, G21, G32, L25)

Previous research has documented strong peer effects in risk taking, but little is known about how such social influences affect market outcomes. The consequences of social interactions are hard to isolate in financial data, and theoretically it is not clear whether peer effects should increase or decrease risk sharing. We design an experimental asset market with multiple risky assets and study how exogenous variation in real-time information about the portfolios of peer group members affects aggregate and individual risk taking. We find that peer information ameliorates under-diversification that occurs in a market without such information. One reason is that peer information increases risk aversion and induces a concern for relative income position that may reduce or amplify risk taking, depending on whether the context highlights the most or least successful trader. Thus, contrary to conventional wisdom, we show that social interactions may help to reduce earnings volatility in financial markets, and we discuss implications for institutional design.

We study how allowing agents to use debt as collateral affects asset prices, leverage, and interest rates in a general equilibrium, heterogeneous-agent model with collateralized financial contracts and multiple states of uncertainty. In the absence of debt collateralization, multiple contracts are traded in equilibrium, with some agents borrowing using risky debt and others borrowing with risk-free debt. When agents can use debt contracts as collateral to borrow from other agents, margin requirements decrease, asset prices increase, and the interest rate on risky debt decreases. We characterize equilibrium for N states and L levels of debt collateralization and prove that enough levels of debt collateralization creates an equilibrium featuring maximal leverage on all debt contracts. In the dynamic model, debt collateralization creates larger asset price volatility.

Why does the market discipline that financial intermediaries face seem too weak during booms and too strong during crises? This paper shows in a general equilibrium setting that rollover risk as a disciplining device is effective only if all intermediaries face purely idiosyncratic risk. However, if assets are correlated, a two-sided inefficiency arises: Good aggregate states have intermediaries taking excessive risks, while bad aggregate states suffer from costly fire sales. The driving force behind this inefficiency is an amplifying feedback loop between asset values and market discipline. In equilibrium, financial intermediaries inefficiently amplify both positive and negative aggregate shocks.

A theory of incomplete preferences under uncertainty is proposed, according to which a decision maker’s preferences are indeterminate if and only if her confidence in the relevant beliefs does not match up to the stakes involved in the decision. The author uses the model of confidence in beliefs introduced in Hill (2013), and axiomatise a class of models, differing from each other in the appropriate notion of stakes. Comparative statics analysis can distinguish the decision maker’s confidence from her attitude to choosing in the absence of confidence. The model naturally suggests two possible strategies for completing preferences, and hence for choosing in the presence of incompleteness. One strategy respects confidence – it relies only on beliefs in which the decision maker has sufficient confidence given the stakes – whereas the other goes on hunches – it relies on all beliefs, no matter how little confidence the decision maker has in them. Axiomatic characterizations are given for each of the strategies. Finally, the author considers the consequences of the model in markets, where indeterminacy of preference translates into refusal to trade. The incorporation of confidence adds an extra friction, beyond the standard implications of non-expected utility models for Pareto optima.

How important are financial friction shocks in business cycles fluctuations? To answer this question, I use micro data to quantify key features of US financial markets. I then construct a dynamic equilibrium model that is consistent with these features and fit the model to business cycle data using Bayesian methods. In my micro data analysis, I establish facts that may be of independent interest. For example, I find that a substantial 33% of firm investment is funded using financial markets. The dynamic model introduces price and wage rigidities and a financial intermediation shock into Kiyotaki and Moore (2008). According to the estimated model, the financial intermediation shock explains around 40% of GDP and 55% of investment volatility. The estimation assigns such a large role to the financial shock for two reasons: (i) the shock is closely related to the interest rate spread, and this spread is strongly countercyclical and (ii) according to the model, the response in consumption, investment, employment and asset prices to a financial shock resembles the behavior of these variables over the business cycle.

Access to credit is indispensable to financing firm investment and therefore bears on technology decisions and in turn environmental performance. This paper develops a tractable general equilibrium model to analyze the effect of credit constraints on production-generated pollution emissions. The model demonstrates that reducing credit constraints increases the scale of production (scale effect) and increases the number of firms taking up production (market size effect), while it also reduces emissions per unit of output (technique effect) and increases the share of firms investing in the technology upgrade (composition effect). Because the former and latter effects are plausibly confounding in nature, the net effect of credit constraints on pollution emissions is an empirical question. This paper demonstrates that, using variation in the timing of credit market reforms, reducing credit constraints significantly improves air pollution (sulphur dioxide and lead concentrations) in both developing and developed countries. The results are robust using various approaches, including two-way fixed effects, lagged dependent variables, and difference-in-differences.

In recent years, the proportion of students facing a binding constraint on government student loans has grown. This has led to substantially increased use of private loans as a supplementary source of finance for households’ higher education investment. A critical aspect of the private market for student loans is that loan terms must reflect students’ risk of default. College investment will therefore differ from a world in which government student loans, whose terms are not sensitive to credit risk, are expanded to no longer bind. Moreover, beyond simply crowding out private lending, expansions of the government student loan program will feed back into default risk on private loans. The goal of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the likely effects of the private market for student loans on college enrollment. We build a model of college investment that reflects uninsured idiosyncratic risk and a well-defined life-cycle that is consistent with observed borrowing and default behavior across family income and college preparedness. We find that higher government borrowing limits increase college investment but lead to more default in the private market for student loans, while tuition subsides increase college investment and reduce default rates in the private market. Consequently, higher limits on government student loans have small negative welfare effects, while tuition subsidies increase aggregate welfare.

We provide results on the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamically incomplete financial markets in discrete time. Our framework allows for heterogeneous agents, unspanned random endowments and convex trading constraints. In the special case where all agents have preferences of the same type and all random endowments are replicable by trading in the financial market we show that a one-fund theorem holds and give an explicit expression for the equilibrium pricing kernel. If the underlying noise is generated by finitely many Bernoulli random walks, the equilibrium dynamics can be described by a system of coupled backward stochastic difference equations, which in the continuous-time limit becomes a multi-dimensional backward stochastic differential equation. If the market is complete in equilibrium, the system of equations decouples, but if not, one needs to keep track of the prices and continuation values of all agents to solve it. As an example we simulate option prices in the presence of stochastic volatility, demand pressure and short-selling constraints.

The liberalization thesis has generated a lot of debate in theoretical and empirical literature. In this paper we construct an index of financial liberalization from 1981 to 2012 to investigate its impact on economic growth in Nigeria using the McKinnon-Shaw framework. The Ordinary Least Squares Methodology and cointegration analysis are adopted in the study. The result reveals that financial liberalization (FINDEX) and private investment (PINV) have significant positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. However, real lending rate (LDR) proved to be negatively related to economic growth in Nigeria within the period under review. We therefore conclude that the monetary authorities and policy makers in Nigeria need to support the liberalization process by formulating complementary policies and financial sector reform measures that will help in strengthening the impact of the liberalization process on the economy and also ensure that the benefits of the liberalization exercise is maximized.

We study equilibrium outcomes in markets with asymmetric information about asset values among both buyers and sellers. In residential real estate markets hard-to-observe neighborhood characteristics are a key source of information heterogeneity: sellers are usually better informed about neighborhood values than buyers, but there are some sellers and some buyers that are better informed than their peers. We propose a new theoretical framework for analyzing such markets with many heterogeneous assets and differentially informed agents. Consistent with the predictions from this framework, we find that changes in the seller composition towards (i) more informed sellers and (ii) sellers with a larger supply elasticity predict subsequent house-price declines and demographic changes in that neighborhood. This effect is larger for houses whose value depends more on neighborhood characteristics, and smaller for houses bought by more informed buyers. Our findings suggest that home owners have superior information about important neighborhood characteristics, and exploit this information to time local market movements.

Purpose: This empirical study documents the evidence of initial excess return to the investors who invest in the IPO. Methodology: By using CAR, the findings show underperformance of IPO both in short run and long run in Pakistan. Findings: The results are consistent with the expectations and prior studies’ findings done in other countries of the world. Recommendations: The study contributes to corporate finance literature and provides a substantial evidence of IPO under-pricing in Pakistan.

We consider the effects of central-bank purchases of a risky asset, financed by issuing riskless nominal liabilities (reserves), as an additional dimension of policy alongside “conventional” monetary policy (central-bank control of the riskless nominal interest rate), in a general-equilibrium model of asset pricing and risk sharing with endogenous collateral constraints of the kind proposed by Geanakoplos (1997). When sufficient collateral exists for collateral constraints not to bind for any agents, we show that central-bank asset purchases have no effects on either real or nominal variables, despite the differing risk characteristics of the assets purchased and the ones issued to finance these purchases. At the same time, the existence of collateral constraints allows our model to capture the common view that large enough central-bank purchases would eventually have to effect asset prices. But even when central-bank purchases raise the price of the asset, owing to binding collateral constraints, the effects need not be the ones commonly assumed. We show that under some circumstances, central-bank purchases relax financial constraints, increase aggregate demand, and may even achieve a Pareto improvement; but in other cases, they may tighten financial constraints, reduce aggregate demand, and lower welfare. The latter case is almost certainly the one that arises if central-bank purchases are sufficiently large.

Purpose: The level of participation in stock markets hasgenerally been low, leading to a phenomenon called the stock holding puzzle. There is a general agreement that participation levels in the Ghana stock Exchange are extremely low. The Ghana Statistical Service reveals that approximately (only) one (1) percent of Ghanaian households hold shares of stock. Many have attempted to explain this phenomenon using the basic features of a stock which are its risk and return components. Despite the extensive research conducted to find rational explanations to the stock holding puzzle and the general agreement that there exist a risk-return tradeoff in the stock market, these studies have not been able to give a conclusive explanation to the stock holding puzzle. This study therefore seeks to find out the behavioral factors that influence an individual or household’s decision to participate in the stock market in Ghana and to generally investigate the determinants of stock market participation in the country. Methodology: The study employed an empirical regression model based on the behavioral finance framework which has been used by several studies. Findings: The research revealed that awareness of the stock market, trust, education and herding behaviour were positively and significantly related to stock market participation in Ghana. Recommendations: The study therefore recommended that, the Ghana Stock Exchange should embark on a massive public education programme to create public awareness of the stock market.

This paper studies banks’ choice between building liquidity buffers and raising funding ex post to deal with reinvestment shocks. We uncover the possibility of an inefficient liquidity squeeze equilibrium when ex post funding is abundant. In the model, banks typically build larger liquidity buffers when they expect funding to be expensive. However, when banks hold larger liquidity buffers, pledgeable income is larger and they hence can raise more funding, which in the aggregate raises the funding cost. This feedback loop between liquidity hoarding and the cost of ex post funding yields multiple equilibria, one being an inefficient liquidity squeeze equilibrium where banks do not build any liquidity buffer. Comparative statics show that this inefficient equilibrium is more likely when the supply of ex post funding is large. Last, in this equilibrium, a “borrower”-of-last-resort policy can improve social welfare if drying up ex post funding restores bank incentives to hold liquidity ex ante.

This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects: (1) submit a price forecast only; (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the fundamental price in all treatments, but to a larger degree in treatments (2) and (3). Mispricing is therefore a robust finding in markets with positive expectation feedback. Some very large, recurring bubbles arise, where the price is three times larger than the fundamental value, which were not seen in former experiments.

We propose a 2-country asset-pricing model where agents' preferences change endogenously as a function of the popularity of internationally traded goods. We determine the effect of the time-variation of preferences on equity markets, consumption and portfolio choices. When agents are more sensitive to the popularity of domestic consumption goods, the local stock market reacts more strongly to the preferences of local agents than to the preferences of foreign agents. Therefore, home bias arises because home-country stock represents a better investment opportunity for hedging against future fluctuations in preferences. We test our model and find that preference evolution is a plausible driver of key macroeconomic variables and stock returns.

We show how the prospect of disputes over firms’ revenue reports promotes debt financing\ud over equity. This is demonstrated in a costly state verification model with\ud a risk averse entrepreneur. The prospect of disputes encourages incentive contracts\ud that limit penalties and avoid stochastic monitoring, even when the lender can commit\ud to stochastic monitoring. Consequently, optimal contracts shift from equity toward\ud standard debt. In short: When audit signals are weakly correlated with true incomes,\ud standard debt contracts emerge as optimal; if audit signals are highly correlated with\ud true incomes, optimal contracts resemble equity. When audit costs are sufficiently\ud high, stochastic monitoring may be optimal. Optimal standard debt contracts under\ud imperfect audits are shown to reproduce key empirical facts of US firm borrowing.

The financial shifts encountered in the last decade, increase the importance of capital markets in emerging countries, which is also Romania’s case. The banking system was for a long period of time the main source of liquidity for the economy. Meanwhile, the situation is changing due to the importance that capital market has in financing the economy. Through this paper we analyze the transactions’ evolution made by financial intermediaries on Romanian capital market, by highlighting the Societies for Financial Services and Investments (SSIF). Based on this evolution, we identified the main significant differences and similarities between the SSIFs existing on the market.

Generally accepted in economic literature, the financial market has a positive impact on growth in a modern economy. Nevertheless, due to the global crises starting in 2008, a number of authors are questioning today about this assertion. Among them, there are authors which are attributing as initial impulse to the crisis an exaggerated expansion of financial market (and non-covered on the real side of economy). In this study, based on economic literature and empirical evidences, we are presentig few considerations regarding the development of financial market during last decades and its role on economic growth.

We prove a "no-speculative-trade'' theorem under unawareness for the infinite case. This generalizes the result for the finite case by Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper (2013).

There is no doubt that new investments are the cornerstone of progress and competition in today's world. Different financing instruments are employed to secure the funds for these investments. The most common financing methods in Iran are debt and equity financing. Some investors, including corporate insiders, have access to private information. The more private the information, the more will be the bid/ask spread between investors, thus reducing the returns of those with no access to such information. Therefore, information asymmetry is expected to affect the funding of investments. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between information asymmetry and financing methods (debt and equity financing). The population consists of all the firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange that have been operating during the period 2006-2010. Totally, 61 firms were selected as sample using targeted sampling. The results showed that there is no significant relationship between information asymmetry and debt financing; however, there was a significant positive relationship between information asymmetry and equity financing.

The financial shifts encountered on last decade, increase the importance of capital markets in developing countries, such that capital market become an important source of long-term financing. During the time, economic literature and also practitioners recognized the important role of the banking system as a supplier of liquidity in an economy. Despite this, in the last year, the capital market tries to help in diffusing the stresses on the banking system because, it is able to match long-term investments with long-term capital. Through this paper we want to analyze all transactions made on Romanian capital market from 1995 until present. Even if, it is hard to capture all aspects and particularities of all transaction, we want to identify the main patterns encountered on it: person who invest (residents vs non- residents), volume, value, transaction type (sell or buy), market capitalization, financial crisis and other macroeconomic events. In our opinion these are just several variables which can reveal us the real developing stage of Romanian capital market, and future trend, so this is a topic which worth to be deeply analyzed.

Uncertainty is one of the factors negatively affecting financial markets. Terrorism and terrorist activities are located in the factors that trigger this uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the uncertainties created by terrorist activities on financial markets. In this context, the effects of terrorism on financial market indexes for 35 countries for the period of 2003-2011 are studied. The Global Terrorism Index derived from Vision of Humanity and annual average stock market indexes obtained from World Federation of Exchanges are used. In this regard, firstly, unit root tests were applied to investigate whether variables are stationary or not. Then, Pedroni and Kao cointegration tests were conducted and a long term relationship between variables were found. A causual relationship either from stock markets to terrorist incidents or from terrorist incidents to stock markets has not been observed in the Granger Causality analysis. The results of the analysis shows that the short term effects of terrorist incidents on stock markets are fixed by the market mechanism in the long term., Finansal piyasaları olumsuz yönde etkileyen en temel unsurlar arasında belirsizlik yer almaktadır. Terörizm ve terörist faaliyetler ise, bu belirsizliği tetikleyen faktörlerdendir. Bu çalışma terörist faaliyetlerin oluşturduğu belirsizliklerin finansal piyasalar üzerinde yarattığı etkileri incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu çerçevede, terörizmin finansal piyasaları üzerindeki etkileri, 35 ülke için 2003-2011 dönemini kapsayacak biçimde araştırılmış ve Vision of Humanity’den elde edilen küresel terörizm endeksi ile Dünya Borsalar Birliğinden elde edilen yıllık ortalama borsa endeksleri kullanılmıştır. Bu doğrultuda, ilk olarak değişkenlerin durağan olup olmadıklarını araştırmak amacıyla birim kök testleri yapılmıştır. Daha sonra Pedroni ve Kao eşbütünleşme testleri yapılmış ve değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkilerin olduğu görülmüştür. Granger nedensellik analizi bulgularında ise, gerek hisse senedi piyasalarından terör olaylarına, gerekse terör olaylarından hisse senedi piyasalarına doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanılmamıştır. Elde edilen analiz sonuçlarına göre, terörist faaliyetlerin hisse senedi piyasaları üzerine gerçekleşen kısa vadeli olumsuz etkilerinin uzun dönemde piyasa mekanizması tarafından düzeltildiği görülmüştür

This paper analyses the possible contribution of the over-represented “decree” generation of the 1960’s and 1970’s to the development of the Romanian financial system. Contrary to most other studies on the subject, the focus of this paper is on the financial impact this generation can have before reaching retirement age. Consequently, the analysis is centered on the interaction between the members of this generation and the local financial institutions in the next two decades. It is suggested that the time frame used for this study is better suited for the strategic analysis requirements of financial institutions. It is argued that this generation is maturing professionally and moving towards reaching its financial peak in terms of individual earnings. Therefore, one of the main conclusions of the paper is that financial institutions should adjust their strategies in order to benefit from a significant opportunity

Investment projects have as purpose the satisfaction of some necessities or whishes of the management of a company. When it is taken a decision regarding investments it is known the fact that these assume the consumption of human, financial and material resources. Thus, the decision factors take into consideration a series of aspects as: the identification of the objectives of the investment, the establishment of strategies, the mobilization, use and control of the resources involved in the realization of the investment, etc.. From this point of view it is analyzed carefully the following evaluation criteria of an investment: the net present value, the internal rate of return, the recovery period and the profitability index. The aim of this article is that of highlighting the fact that the investment decisions are the most important at the company level in what regards the creation of value.

Dynamic development in the area of value-at-risk (VaR) estimation and growing implementation of VaR-based risk valuation models in investment companies stimulate the need for statistical methods of VaR models evaluation. Following recent changes in Basel Accords, current UE banking supervisory regulations require internal VaR model backtesting, which provides another strong incentive for research on relevant statistical tests. Previous studies have shown that commonly used VaR independence Markov-chain-based testing procedure exhibits low power, which constitutes a particularly serious problem in the case of finite-sample settings. In the paper, as an alternative to the popular Markov test an overview of the group of duration-based VaR backtesting procedures is presented along with exploration of their statistical properties while rejecting a non-realistic assumption of infinite sample size. The Monte Carlo test technique was adopted to provide exact tests, in which asymptotic distributions were replaced with simulated finite sample distributions. A Monte Carlo study, based on the GARCH model, was designed to investigate the size and the power of the tests. Through the comparative analysis we found that, in the light of observed statistical properties, the duration-based approach was superior to the Markov test.

The mainstay of the paper is formed by an analysis of the effects of China asset rate changes on Asian financial markets, China’s decision-making process, the impact of China’s economic development on global trade and production connections, and China’s ability to maintain a sustainable level of growth. Applying new conceptual and methodological approaches, this study advances to the next level research on China’s cautious opening to capital flows, its openness and high investment rate, its decentralized fiscal system and gradual reforms, and the gradual process of China’s domestic financial development.

Nowadays, international financial markets are particularly criticized for a shortage, or absence, of ethics in their activities, creating a presence of moral hazards, as well as a high proportion of speculative trading and therefore competing in an unsustainable game of risk. This article offers an analysis of the significance of ethical behavior in international financial markets. We also examine notable factors that contribute to the increased tendency for unethical behavior in financial markets. The purpose of this research is to identify ethically questionable forms of behavior in financial markets and to discuss them. (V súčasnosti sú medzinárodné finančné trhy kritizované najmä pre nedostatok, respektíve absenciu etiky v aktivitách na finančných trhoch, výskyt morálneho hazardu, vysoký podiel špekulatívnych obchodov a neudržateľnú hru s rizikom. V predkladanom príspevku sa venujeme analýze predpokladu významnej úlohy etického správania sa subjektov na medzinárodných finančných trhoch a charakteristike významných faktorov, ktoré prispievajú k zvýšenému sklonu k neetickému správaniu na trhoch. Cieľom skúmania danej problematiky je identifikácia niektorých eticky otáznych foriem správania na finančných trhoch, ktoré ponúkame k ďalšej diskusii.)

Exchange rates are important financial problem that is receiving attention globally. This study investigated the volatility modeling of daily Dollar/Naira exchange rate using GARCH, GJR- GARCH, TGRACH and TS-GARCH models by using daily data over the period June 2000 to July 2011. The aim of the study is to determine volatility modeling of daily exchange rate between US (Dollar) and Nigeria (Naira). The results show that the GJR-GARCH and TGARCH models show the existence of statistically significant asymmetry effect. The forecasting ability is subsequently assessed using the symmetric lost functions which are the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Absolute Error (RMAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Theil inequality Coefficient. The results show that TGARCH model provide the most accurate forecasts. This model will captured all the necessary stylize facts (common features) of financial data, such as persistent, volatility clustering and asymmetric effects.

‘State of the art’ monetary theory was unable to anticipate or understand the global financial crisis because it rested on microeconomic foundations that precluded any meaningful role for money, finance or banking. These analytical and conceptual flaws have been known for a long time. But many either ignored or misunderstood their implications. This note provides a largely non-technical explanation of the conceptual flaws in ‘state of the art’ monetary theory that rendered it unable to anticipate, or understand, the global financial crisis of 2007–2008; and rendered it thereafter effectively useless as a guide to what should be done.

We study price pressures in stock prices-price deviations from fundamental value due to a risk-averse intermediary supplying liquidity to asynchronously arriving investors. Empirically, twelve years of daily New York Stock Exchange intermediary data reveal economically large price pressures. A $100,000 inventory shock causes an average price pressure of 0.28% with a half-life of 0.92 days. Price pressure causes average transitory volatility in daily stock returns of 0.49%. Price pressure effects are substantially larger with longer durations in smaller stocks. Theoretically, in a simple dynamic inventory model the 'representative' intermediary uses price pressure to control risk through inventory mean reversion. She trades off the revenue loss due to price pressure against the price risk associated with remaining in a nonzero inventory state. The model's closed-form solution identifies the intermediary's relative risk aversion and the distribution of investors' private values for trading from the observed time series patterns. These allow us to estimate the social costs-deviations from constrained Pareto efficiency-due to price pressure which average 0.35 basis points of the value traded.

We provide a representation for the nonmyopic optimal portfolio of an agent consuming only at the terminal horizon when the single state variable follows a general diffusion process and the market consists of one risky asset and a risk-free asset. The key term of our representation is a new object that we call the “rate of macroeconomic fluctuation” whose properties are fundamental for the portfolio dynamics. We show that, under natural cyclicality conditions, (i) the agent’s hedging demand is positive (negative) when the product of his prudence and risk tolerance is below (above) two and (ii) the portfolio weights decrease in risk aversion. We apply our results to study a general continuous-time capital asset pricing model and show that under the same cyclicality conditions, the market price of risk is countercyclical and the price of the risky asset exhibits excess volatility.

Economic variables are known to move asymmetrically over the business cycle: quickly and sharply during crises, but slowly and gradually during recoveries. Not known is the fact that this asymmetry is stronger in countries with less-developed financial systems. This new fact is documented using cross-country data on loan interest rates, investment, and output. The fact is then explained using a learning model with endogenous flows of information about economic conditions. Asymmetry is shown to be stronger in less-developed countries because these countries have greater financial frictions, which are captured in the model by higher monitoring and bankruptcy costs. These greater frictions magnify the crisis reactions of lending rates and economic activity to shocks and then delay their recovery by restricting the generation of information after the crisis. Empirical evidence and a quantitative exploration of the model show that this explanation is consistent with the data.

This note identifies and fixes a minor gap in Proposition 1 in Barberis and Huang (Am Econ Rev 98(5):2066–2100, 2008). Assuming homogeneous cumulative prospect theory decision makers, we show that CAPM is a necessary (though not sufficient) condition that must hold in equilibrium. We support our results with numerical examples where security prices become negative.

Due to the importance of the financial instability and of its negative consequences within the economies, especially in the emerging ones, it is important to sstudy the link between financial instability and investments, as a factor of economic stability. Therefore, the paper aims to analyze the relationship between the risk premium comprises by the financial instruments, the country-specific factors that influence spreads, the factors that influence the general perception of emerging market risk and the risk appetite, both having great influence on the investments level.

The paper explores the financial accounts database of Eurostat, a rich set of data that is largely unexploited. It describes the main financial developments at EU level during the 1990-2010 period, both in terms of institutional agents and financial products. The paper provides evidence on the consequences of asset price inflation for wealth distribution between institutional agents and argues that the conceptual scheme of the ?double monetary circuit? of existing and recycled savings helps in describing and explaining the observed patterns of financialisation.

The authors study the structure of interbank unsecured loans market from the network topology point of view as well as systemic risks related to sufficiency of bank capital. The paper discusses both theoretical and practical aspects of the interbank credit market analysis.

A tanulmány célja az értékpapírok esetében leggyakrabban alkalmazott két aukciós eljárás (az egyenáras és a diszkriminatív áras aukció) összehasonlító elemzése. A szakirodalom elsősorban az aukció várható bevétele szempontjából elemzi a módszereket. Az elméleti modellek eltérően rangsorolják a módszerek várható bevételét, viszont jól megmutatják, hogy miként függnek a beadott ajánlatok az aukciós eljárástól. Ezeket az eredményeket "laboratóriumi" kísérletek és valós aukciók empirikus vizsgálatai is megerősítik. Utóbbiak ráadásul robusztus választ adnak a várható bevétel kérdésére is, mégpedig az egyenáras forma előnyére. Mégis, jelenleg globálisan többségben vannak a diszkriminatív áras módszert használó állampapír-kibocsátók, és a jegybanki eszközöket is többnyire ilyen módszerrel értékesítik. Ez azzal magyarázható, hogy a kibocsátó más szempontokat is figyelembe vehet a várható bevételen kívül. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C78, D44, D53, D82, H63., The purpose of this paper is to compare the two auction techniques (discriminatory and uniform-price) most commonly used for the sale of securities. The literature tends to analyse the methods from the side of expected auction revenue. Theoretical models arrive at different rankings for expected revenue, but they do reveal the relationship between bids submitted and auction technique. These results are confirmed by laboratory" experiments and by the empirical evidence of real-world auctions. The latter may also provide a robust answer to the question of expected revenue, with the uniform-price format emerging as more beneficial for the Treasury. Still, the overall majority of government-bond issuers use the discriminatory-price format at present, and central bank instruments also tend to be sold in that way. This is because issuers may have factors other than expected revenue to consider.

Extremely affluent investors differ in a number of ways. In industrialized countries the average age of UHNWI is rather high, their wealth is frequently inherited and the investment style if more conservative. In contrast, UHNWI in emerging markets are comparatively young, they have created their wealth themselves, and they strive for further growth also in terms of their investment style, which means they are less risk averse. It is still the case that UHNWI in emerging markets think, act and invest in a different way.

This study uses a panel KSS test by Nuri Ucar and Tolga Omay (2009), with a Fourier function based on the sequential panel selection method (SPSM) procedure proposed by Georgios Chortareas and George Kapetanios (2009) to test the efficiency of REIT markets in 16 countries from 28 March 2008 to 27 June 2011. A Fourier approximation often captures the behavior of an unknown break, and testing for a unit root increases its power to do so. Moreover, SPSM can determine the mix of I(0) and I(1) series in a panel setting to clarify how many and which are random walk processes. Our empirical results demonstrate that REIT markets are efficient in all sampled countries except the UK. Our results imply that investors in countries with efficient REIT markets can adopt more passive portfolio strategies.

Príspevok upriamuje pozornosť na to, že v období globalizácie svetového hospodárstva dochádza k redefinovaniu slobody, uvažuje sa o takzvanej novej slobode, ktorú v globalizovanom svetovom hospodárstve obhajujú najmä súčasní neoliberáli. Objavujú sa pochybnosti o tom, ako chápať „novú slobodu“ vo svetovom hospodárstve a v tejto súvislosti aj do akej miery je slobodný súčasný kapitalistický spoločenský systém. Vzhľadom na to, že nová sloboda je nielen spoločným menovateľom mnohých pozitívnych premien na trhu, ale i vzniku mnohých rizík, ktoré ohrozujú štáty, indivíduá či prírodu, možno ju pokladať za jednu z príčin vzniku globálnej krízy kapitalizmu. V snahe nájsť z nej východisko je vhodné uvažovať o niektorých limitoch, ktoré by novú slobodu obmedzovali.

In this study, we examine whether the arbitrage is limited for the trading stocks at Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), which is the stock market in Turkey. For doing so, stocks held by the companies traded at different groups such as A, B and C on ISE have been considered. By virtue of the study conducted, it has been determined that there is a long-termed correlation by and between the stocks held by the 3 different companies and traded under different groups and that deviations emerging in the short term have been corrected in a short time. Accordingly, it can be concluded that the arbitrage is not limited but operating on a rational basis for the stocks held by the companies trading at different groups such as A, B and C on ISE.

A szerző a 2008-ban kezdődött gazdasági világválság hatását vizsgálja az egy részvényre jutó nyereség előrejelzésének hibájára. Számos publikáció bizonyította, hogy az elemzők a tényértékeknél szisztematikusan kedvezőbb tervértéket adnak meg az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzéseikben. Más vizsgálatok azt igazolták, hogy az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzési hiba bizonytalan környezetben növekszik, míg arra is számos bizonyítékot lehet találni, hogy a negatív hírek hatását az elemzők alulsúlyozzák. A gazdasági világválság miatt az elemzőknek számtalan negatív hírt kellett figyelembe venniük az előrejelzések készítésekor, továbbá a válság az egész gazdaságban jelentősen növelte a bizonytalanságot. A szerző azt vizsgálja, hogy miként hatott a gazdasági világválság az egy részvényre jutó nyereség- előrejelzés hibájára, megkülönböztetve azt az időszakot, amíg a válság negatív hír volt, attól, amikor már hatásaként jelentősen megnőtt a bizonytalanság. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C12, C90, D03, D53, D83, G02, G17, P11., The author investigated the impact of the financial crisis that started in 2008 on the forecasting error for earnings per share. There is plentiful evidence from the 1980s that analysts give systematically more favourable values in their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts than reality, i.e. they are generally optimistic. Other investigations have supported the idea that the EPS forecasting error is greater under uncertain environmental circumstances, while other researchers prove that the analysts under-react to the negative information in their forecasts. The financial crisis brought a myriad of negative information for analysts to consider in such forecasts, while also increasing the level of uncertainty for the entire economy. The article investigates the impact of the financial crisis on the EPS forecasting error, distinguishing the period when the crisis gave merely negative information, from the one when its effect of uncertainty was significantly increased over the entire economy.

The purpose of this study is to examine the interrelationship between financial development, economic growth and income inequality in case of Pakistan. The study has been divided into three linkages; one linkage is between financial development, financial instability and economic growth; second is between financial development, financial instability and income distribution or income inequality, and the last one is between financial development, financial instability and poverty via economic growth. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration has been applied. Our results indicate that the variables are cointegrated for long run. Furthermore, a positive relationship exists between financial development and economic growth. Financial instability not only retards economic growth directly but also weakens finance-growth nexus. The impact of financial development on income inequality is negative. It shows that a rise in financial development improves income distribution or declines income inequality. Financial development improves the incomes of poor segment of population. This empirical evidence confirms the existence of McKinnon Conduit Effect (MCE) in Pakistan. The present study suggests suitable policy options to policy makers in declining income inequality by using financial sector as a policy tool in Pakistan.

For incomplete financial markets, jumps in both prices and consumption can be unavoidable. We consider pure-exchange economies with infinite horizon, discrete time, uncertainty with a continuum of possible shocks at every date. The evolution of shocks follows a Markov process, and fundamentals depend continuously on shocks. It is shown that: (1) equilibria exist; (2) for effectively complete financial markets, asset prices depend continuously on shocks; and (3) for incomplete financial markets, there is an open set of economies $${\fancyscript{U}}$$ such that for every equilibrium of every economy in $${\fancyscript{U}}$$ , asset prices at every date depend discontinuously on the shock at that date.

This paper examines the impact of dividends on stock price in the context of Nepal. A majority of earlier studies conducted in developed countries show that dividend has a strong effect than retained earnings. The study examines whether this is consistent in the context of Nepal (or not) and the implication particularly to the banking and non-banking sector. To achieve the objective of the study, a descriptive and analytical research design has been administered. The secondary data are used to test this impact. In order to examine the impact of dividends on stock prices, a multivariate linear regression analysis has been implied in which current market stock price is taken as a dependent variable and four other variables namely Dividend Per Share (DPS), Retained Earnings Per Share (REPS), Lagged Price Earnings Ratio (P/E ratio) and Lagged Market Price Per Share (MPS) as the explanatory variables. This attempt has been made to test the dividends retained earning hypothesis and to examine the estimated relationship over the period of time. The overall conclusion drawn in this study reveals that, the impact of dividends is more pronounced than that of retained earnings in the context of Nepal. Dividend has a significant effect on market stock price in both banking and non-banking sector.

One of the most often committed mistakes in economic reasoning is the supposition about the continuity of economic processes. However, what dominates in reality is a process of permanent changes, which sometimes proceed in a cascading manner rather than linearly. It must be acknowledged that the capitalist market economy by its very nature is involved in periodical crises. They must occur from time to time, yet the magnitude of the recent crisis is a result of inappropriate institutions and wrong macroeconomic policies based on neoliberalism. While the underlying causes of the crisis and the ways out of it at the era of interdependent global economy is discussed vividly in countless books and papers, yet it ought to be clear that the world is moving from one crisis to another. Thus, one must consider not only the economics of crisis, but also a kind of crisis of economics. There is a need for a New Pragmatism, based on the better understanding of economics as science, describing the economy as a system of forces and flows which contantly give feedback and influence each other.

Birçok ülkede olduğu gibi, bankacılık sektörü, Türkiye’de de finans piyasaları içerisinde en büyük paya sahiptir. Özellikle dışa açılma sürecinin ardından artan rekabet koşulları, bankaları daha etkin çalışmaya zorlamıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türk bankacılık sektöründe faaliyet gösteren ticari bankaların maliyet ve kâr etkinliklerini araştırmaktır. Bu çerçevede öncelikle etkinlik kavramı üzerinde durulmuş ve ardından etkinlik ölçüm yöntemleri tanıtılmıştır. Türk bankacılık sektörünün ilgili dönem içerisindeki gelişimi incelendikten sonra, aracılık yaklaşımı ile 2003–2007 yılları arasında faaliyet gösteren 32 ticaret bankasına ait panel veriler kullanılmış ve stokastik translog maliyet ve kâr denklemleri tahmin edilerek bankaların etkinlik skorları hesaplanmıştır. Bu dönemin seçilmesinin temel nedeni, 2003 yılından itibaren enflasyon muhasebesine geçilmesinin ardından, ilgili dönemi ele alan çalışmaların yeterince olmaması ve dönem içerisinde kriz gibi şokların yaşanmamasıdır. Bu çerçevede dışsal şoklardan arındırılan bu dönemin, bankaların etkinlik düzeylerini ortaya çıkarmak açısından daha sağlıklı sonuçlar vereceği düşünülmektedir. Çalışma sonucunda, sektördeki küçük ve yabancı bankaların hem kâr hem de maliyet açısından diğer bankalara göre daha etkin çalıştıkları görülmüştür. Özellikle kamu bankalarının etkinlik düzeylerinin düşük olması, banka büyüklüğü ve yönetimsel beceri ile ilişkilendirilmiştir.