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Background: Machine learning models have been developed for numerous medical prognostic purposes. These models are commonly developed using data from single centers or regional registries. Including data from multiple centers improves robustness and accuracy of prognostic models. However, data sharing between multiple centers is complex, mainly because of regulations and patient privacy issues.Objective: We aim to overcome data sharing impediments by using distributed ML and local learning followed by model integration. We applied these techniques to develop 1-year TAVI mortality estimation models with data from two centers without sharing any data.Methods: A distributed ML technique and local learning followed by model integration was used to develop models to predict 1-year mortality after TAVI. We included two populations with 1,160 (Center A) and 631 (Center B) patients. Five traditional ML algorithms were implemented. The results were compared to models created individually on each center.Results: The combined learning techniques outperformed the mono-center models. For center A, the combined local XGBoost achieved an AUC of 0.67 (compared to a mono-center AUC of 0.65) and, for center B, a distributed neural network achieved an AUC of 0.68 (compared to a mono-center AUC of 0.64).Conclusion: This study shows that distributed ML and combined local models techniques, can overcome data sharing limitations and result in more accurate models for TAVI mortality estimation. We have shown improved prognostic accuracy for both centers and can also be used as an alternative to overcome the problem of limited amounts of data when creating prognostic models.

Current prognostic risk scores for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) do not benefit yet from modern machine learning techniques, which can improve risk stratification of one-year mortality of patients before TAVI. Despite the advancement of machine learning in healthcare, data sharing regulations are very strict and typically prevent exchanging patient data, without the involvement of ethical committees. A very robust validation approach, including 1300 and 631 patients per center, was performed to validate a machine learning model of one center at the other external center with their data, in a mutual fashion. This was achieved without any data exchange but solely by exchanging the models and the data processing pipelines. A dedicated exchange protocol was designed to evaluate and quantify the model’s robustness on the data of the external center. Models developed with the larger dataset offered similar or higher prediction accuracy on the external validation. Logistic regression, random forest and CatBoost lead to areas under curve of the ROC of 0.65, 0.67 and 0.65 for the internal validation and of 0.62, 0.66, 0.68 for the external validation, respectively. We propose a scalable exchange protocol which can be further extended on other TAVI centers, but more generally to any other clinical scenario, that could benefit from this validation approach.