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CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior Uma grande variedade de modos de transação digitais suplantaram a moeda tradicional mudando a natureza do dinheiro ao longo destes últimos 30 anos. O objetivo principal do trabalho é apontar como algumas inovações foram transformadoras para o fluxo internacional de recursos a partir da crise de 2008: criptomoedas, tecnologias de pagamentos instantâneos e moedas digitais dos bancos centrais. Antes de entrar na análise feita em cada paper, na introdução é realizado um breve panorama teórico de diferentes linhas do pensamento econômico sobre a natureza do Bitcoin. O primeiro artigo aborda a mudança no ecossistema Bitcoin com a crescente presença de players institucionais. Com dados diários da Glassnode Studio, a metodologia wavelet coherence foi aplicada em três intervalos de tempo distintos (halvings do BTC) decompondo preço (em USD) e transações. As estimativas mostraram correlações mais fortes em frequências mais baixas, indicando o movimento de investidores instutucionais. Co-movimentos em frequencias mais altas são creditadas a pequenos e médios investidores via decomposição da contagem de transações. Para compreender como os grandes investidores se apresentam no mercado cripto, foi utilizado modelos Autoregressivos de Defasagens Distribuídas e Modelos Autorregressivos Não-Lineares de defasagens distribuídas. Variáveis internas e externas a Blockchain demonstraram mudanças excessivas de preço e volume do retorno real do BTC. Cálculos de assimetria apontaram para uma maior presença destes players, por meio da quantidade de transações realizadas nas exchanges e sua presença no mercado de ativos norte-americano. A novidade proposta no terceiro artigo é através de metodologia de séries de tempo extrair lições da recente experiência indiana com a Unified Payments Interface para o Pix brasileiro. Variáveis macro, substitutos para pagamentos e medida de popularidade relativa de aplicativos bancários foram escolhidas para entender os volumes de UPI. Substitutos ao volume de pagamentos instantâneos (UPI) revelaram uma natureza complementar, enquanto o grau de sofisticação do sistema financeiro tem efeitos de curto e longo prazo. Choques assimétricos de curto prazo produziriam impactos negativos maiores nas transações via UPI. No último artigo, as Moedas Digitais do Banco Central (CBDCs) foram estudadas a partir da perspectiva dos mercados emergentes. Indices de uso de moeda física (Khianarong & Humphrey, 2019) foram calculadas com dados anuais do BIS, aplicando um algoritmo de previsão com a melhor estimativa econtrada. As tendências decrescentes do uso do dinheiro no Brasil e na Índia corroboram que as moedas digitais emitidas pelos bancos centrais poderiam se tornar um instrumento de pagamento alternativo. A conclusão geral da tese é que os investidores institucionais começaram a beneficiar-se da dinâmica do halving no Bitcoin, para gerar lucros especulativos em um ambiente de liquidez internacional. Este conjunto de fatores modificou não apenas o volume negociado de BTC, mas também o seu preço, transformando a relação da criptomoeda com o mercado de ativos tradicional. A preocupação dos Bancos Centrais, nesta nova era inovadora é a de que pagamentos podem migrar para grandes plataformas privadas, mercados de moeda digitais não regulamentadas tais como stablecoins internacionais. Com a sua institucionalidade sendo crescentemente contestada, à luz de riscos quanto a soberania monetária de países emergentes, os bancos centrais passaram a propor novos intrumentos como pagamentos instantâneos e CBDCs. A wide variety of digital transaction modes has supplanted traditional currency and changed the nature of money over the past 30 years. The main objective of this study is to point out how some financial innovations have been transformative for the international flow of resources since the 2008 crisis: cryptocurrencies, instant payment technologies and central bank digital currencies. Before entering the analysis made in each paper, the introduction provides a brief theoretical overview of different lines of economic thought on the nature of Bitcoin. The first article addresses the change in the Bitcoin ecosystem with the growing presence of institutional players. With daily data from Glassnode Studio, the wavelet coherence methodology was applied in three different time intervals (BTC halvings) decomposing price (in USD) and transactions. Showing stronger correlation at lower frequencies, estimates indicate institutional investor’s market movement. Co-movement at higher frequencies are credited to small and medium investors via transaction count decomposition. To understand how large investors present themselves in the crypto market, Autoregressive Distributed Lag models and Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models were used in the second paper. Both internal and external Blockchain variables demonstrate excessive changes in price and volume of actual BTC return. Asymmetry calculations pointed to a greater presence of these players, through the number of transactions carried out on exchanges and in the North American asset market. The novelty proposed in the third article is, through time series methodology, extract lessons from the recent Indian experience with the Unified Payments Interface for the Brazilian Pix. Macro variables, payment substitutes and measure of relative popularity of banking applications were chosen to understand UPI volumes. Substitutes for the volume of instant payments (UPI) revealed a complementary nature, while the degree of sophistication of the financial system had both short-term and long-term effects. Short-term asymmetric shocks would produce greater negative impacts on UPI transactions. In the last article, Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) were studied from the perspective of emerging markets. Physical currency usage indices (Khianarong & Humphrey, 2019) were calculated with annual data from the BIS, applying a forecasting algorithm with the best estimate found. The decreasing trends in the use of money in Brazil and India corroborate that digital currencies issued by central banks could become an alternative payment instrument. The general conclusion of the thesis is that institutional investors have started to benefit from the halving dynamics in Bitcoin, to generate speculative profits in an environment of international liquidity. This set of factors changed not only the volume of BTC traded, but also its price, transforming the cryptocurrency’s relationship with the traditional asset market. The concern of Central Banks in this new innovative era is that payments may migrate to large private platforms, unregulated digital currency markets such as international stablecoins. With their institutionality being increasingly contested, in light of risks regarding monetary sovereignty of emerging countries, central banks began to propose new instruments such as instant payments and CBDCs. Tese (Doutorado)

O PagSeguro, nasceu em 2006 como uma plataforma segura para pagamentos online, mas foi no varejo físico que teve seu crescimento potencializado a partir do lançamento em 2013 das primeiras maquininhas de cartão sem aluguel para microempreendedores, alternativa encontrada para competir diante de empresas tradicionais e dominantes do mercado. A companhia foi pioneira no mercado de adquirência ao permitir que pequenos e microempreendedores, um nicho que havia muita insatisfação das soluções vigentes e que era pouco atrativo para os gigantes do setor, adquirissem seu próprio dispositivo para receber suas vendas com cartão de crédito ou débito de forma simples e acessível, possibilitando que vendessem mais e de qualquer lugar. Em 2018, se tornou a primeira fintech brasileira a abrir capital na New York Stock Exchange (Nyse), levantando US$2,6 bilhões. Nos anos seguintes, manteve como premissa crescimento com rentabilidade e escalou seu negócio de forma rápida e eficiente. Em 2021, alcançou 10% de participação e até 2022 tem sido a mais lucrativa do setor de maquininhas. Essa trajetória que fortaleceu a economia e democratizou o mercado está diretamente ligada à trajetória de Ricardo Dutra, CEO do PagSeguro, que enxergou também uma oportunidade latente no setor bancário, dominado por 5 grandes bancos, e lançou em 2019 o PagBank, uma conta digital lançada para ser descomplicada, menos burocrática e sem taxas de manutenção, passando a ter como missão democratizar os serviços financeiros no Brasil. Entretanto, uma combinação de mudanças estruturais começa a pressionar todo o setor. Primeiramente, a rápida adesão aos pagamentos instantâneos, que ocasiona a desintermediação da cadeia de pagamentos, ou seja, promove a entrada de novos meios de pagamento que não dependem de maquininhas. Segundo fator, o cenário macroeconômico com altas consecutivas na taxa de juros, que encarecem o custo de capital e pressionam a lucratividade. Terceiro, ocorre um significativo acirramento da concorrência, que já não é mais composta apenas por grandes e previsíveis competidores. Por conta do cenário instável e altamente competitivo, as adquirentes brasileiras estão sob pressão e buscam por novas fontes de receita para preservação das margens. No caso do PagSeguro, o ecossistema digital completo de adquirência e banco é o diferencial da companhia, que busca reequilibrar seu modelo de negócio, ou seja, construir novas fontes de receita do lado do banco digital enquanto perde fontes de receita do lado adquirente. Os esforços passam a se concentrar em aumentar o engajamento (uso) do PagBank a fim de torná-lo banco principal, gerar receitas e uma alavancagem operacional acima do previsto e não perder um volume significativo de clientes. Com isso, três possibilidades se abrem e Ricardo Dutra, junto aos demais executivos, deve definir a prioridade estratégica para os próximos anos, sob a premissa de manter o equilíbrio entre crescimento e rentabilidade. O caso também examina os desafios que uma entrante pode conviver ao se tornar uma empresa estabelecida, inclusive caminhos de reação frente a uma nova onda de disrupção. PagSeguro was launched in 2006 as a secure platform for online payments, but its exponential growth happened in 2013 given to the launch of its first low-end POS - point of sales focused on the needs of microentrepreneurs, an alternative to compete against traditional and dominant companies, in physical retail market. The company was a pioneer in the acquiring market by allowing small and microentrepreneurs, a market niche that was dissatisfied with the current solutions and also unattractive for the giants of the sector, to buy their own devices in order to receive the sales’ payments with credit or debit card in an accessible way, enabling the improvement of sales from anywhere. In 2018, PagSeguro became the first Brazilian fintech with a public offer (IPO) at New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), raising US$2.6 billion. In following years, PagSeguro scaled its business quickly and efficiently. In 2021, PagSeguro reached 10% of market share and the company has been the most profitable in the sector until 2022. This trajectory that strengthened the economy and democratized the brazilian market is directly linked to Ricardo Dutra’s trajectory, CEO of PagSeguro, who also has seen a latent opportunity in the banking sector, dominated by 5 large banks, and launched PagBank, a digital bank account in 2019, with less bureaucracy and without any maintenance fees. However, a combination of structural changes brings pressure on POS market. First, the rapid adoption by consumers of instant payments, which causes the disintermediation. The second factor is the macroeconomic scenario with consecutive rising of interest rates, which increases the cost of money and pressure on profitability. Third, there is a significant increase in competition. Due to the unstable and highly competitive scenario, the Brazilian acquirers are under pressure and are looking for new sources of revenue to preserve margins. In the case of PagSeguro, the complete digital ecosystem of acquiring and digital banking is the company's great advantage, which needs to rebalance the business model, in other words, build new sources of revenue on the digital bank while losing revenue sources on the acquiring side. Efforts are now focused on increasing PagBank's engagement, generating revenues and operational leverage above expectations and not losing many customers. Then, three possibilities arises and Ricardo Dutra, together with the other executives, must define a strategic priority for the coming years, based on the premise of maintaining a balance between growth and profitability. The case also examines the challenges that an entrant player faces in becoming an established company, including ways of reacting in the face of a new disruption wave..

Η παρούσα διατριβή διερευνά το TARGET INSTANT PAYMENT SETTLEMENT (TIPS), μια υποδομή υπηρεσιών πληρωμών, που αναπτύχθηκε στην Ευρωζώνη. Στόχος είναι ο εύρεση της προστιθέμενης αξίας του συστήματος καθώς ο εντοπισμός των πιθανών απειλών και κινδύνων που σχετίζονται με τη λειτουργία του. Γιατί εισήχθη το TIPS σε αυτό το χρονικό σημείο; Ποια είναι η προστιθέμενη αξία της υπηρεσίας; Ποιοι συμμετέχοντες στο σύστημα πληρωμών θα επηρεαστούν; Ποιος είναι υπεύθυνος για τη λειτουργία του; Υπάρχουν άλλες επιλογές; Ποια είναι τα πιθανά μειονεκτήματα; Αναγνωρίζονται αυτά τα μειονεκτήματα; Το υπάρχον νομικό πλαίσιο υποστηρίζει την ανάπτυξη μιας τέτοιας υποδομής; Υπάρχει κάποια σύνδεση μεταξύ TIPS και ψηφιακών νομισμάτων; Αυτή η διατριβή προσπαθεί να δώσει απάντηση σε ερωτήματα όπως αυτά και ταυτόχρονα να προκαλέσει την ανησυχία των αναγνωστών για άλλα θέματα σχετικά με την υπηρεσία. Η παρούσα διατριβή βασίζεται σε εκθέσεις και εγχειρίδια κανόνων που δημοσιεύουν η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα και οι Εθνικές Κεντρικές Τράπεζες. Οι απόψεις που περιέχονται σε αυτή τη διατριβή είναι προσωπικές και δεν μπορούν να θεωρηθούν ότι αντιπροσωπεύουν τις απόψεις που εμπεριέχονται στα εγχειρίδια κανόνων και τις εκθέσεις των Εθνικών Κεντρικών Τραπεζών και της Ευρωπαϊκής Κεντρικής Τράπεζας. Το πρώτο κεφάλαιο περιγράφει τη διαδικασία μιας πληρωμής και κάνει μια εισαγωγή στο υπάρχον σύστημα πληρωμών. Ακολουθεί μια σύντομη παρουσίαση των υπηρεσιών που ανταγωνίζονται τα TIPS και μια σύγκριση μεταξύ τους προκειμένου να εντοπιστεί η προστιθέμενη αξία της υπηρεσίας. Το δεύτερο κεφάλαιο περιέχει τεχνικές λεπτομέρειες σχετικά με τη λειτουργία του TIPS, τη δομή, τη διακυβέρνηση του και περιγράφει το νομικό πλαίσιο πάνω στο οποίο βασίζεται η υπηρεσία. Στη συνέχεια παρατίθεται μια ανάλυση κόστους-οφέλους για κάθε συμμετέχοντα που εμπλέκεται άμεσα ή έμμεσα στην υποδομή. Στο τέταρτο κεφάλαιο παρουσιάζεται το σύστημα άμεσων πληρωμών εκτός ζώνης του ευρώ και απαντάται το ερώτημα εάν αυτές οι λύσεις δύνανται να εφαρμοστούν στη Ευρωζώνη. Το τελευταίο κεφάλαιο περιέχει τις πιθανές επιπτώσεις στην παγκόσμια οικονομία, τις συνέπειες στη χρηματοπιστωτική σταθερότητα εντός της Ευρωζώνης και προσπαθεί να εντοπίσει οποιαδήποτε πιθανή σύνδεση μεταξύ των άμεσων πληρωμών και των ψηφιακών νομισμάτων., This thesis explores TARGET INSTANT PAYMENT SETTLEMENT (TIPS), a payment services infrastructure developed in the Eurozone. The aim is to spot the added value of the service and identify the potential threats and risks associated with its operation. Why was TIPS introduced at this point? What is the added value of the service? Which participants in the payment system will be affected? Who is responsible for its operation? Are there other options? What are the possible disadvantages? Are these disadvantages recognized? Does the existing legal framework support the development of such an infrastructure? Is there a connection between TIPS and digital currencies? This thesis seeks to answer questions such as these and at the same time raise readers' concerns about other service-related issues. This thesis is based on reports and rulebooks published by the European Central Bank and National Central Banks. The views contained in this thesis are personal and cannot be considered to represent the views contained in the rulebooks and reports. The first chapter describes the payment procedure and makes an introduction of the existing payment scheme. A short presentation of services that compete TIPS follows and a comparison between them in order to spot the added value of the service. The second chapter contains technical details about TIPS’s operation, its structure and governance and summarizes the legal framework upon which the service is built. A cost-benefit analysis on each participant directly or indirectly involved in the service, follows. In the fourth chapter the instant payment scheme outside the Euro Area is presented and the question of whether these solutions apply in the Euro Area is answered. The last chapter contains the potential effects in the global economy, the consequences in the financial stability within the Euro Area and tries to spot any possible connection between instant payments and digital currencies.

O estudo proposto possui como base central o atual cenário de revolução tecnológica que está em curso na sociedade brasileira, devendo ser levado em consideração que em decorrência dessa mutabilidade social, as relações econômicas estão sendo alteradas de forma gradativa. Nesse sentido, o Banco Central do Brasil, vislumbrando a necessidade de adequação do Sistema Financeiro Nacional para essa nova realidade virtual e diante da percepção de que os pagamentos eletrônicos são dotados de mais eficiência do que as formas de pagamento tradicionais, desenvolveu um ecossistema democrático de pagamento instantâneo, cujo o intuito é estimular o conhecimento e fomentar a educação financeira da população brasileira. Portanto, o presente artigo visa analisar as vantagens, desvantagens e a eficácia da funcionalidade desse novo mecanismo revolucionário e tecnológico de pagamento instantâneo, que será implantado no sistema financeiro nacional, pois a promessa do órgão regulador é de que se trata de um ecossistema extremamente simples, acessível, veloz, com foco na experiência de cada usuário, capaz de atender todo e qualquer tipo de pagamento, trazendo um custo reduzido nas transações efetivadas por este método de pagamento, não se tratando apenas de uma solução atrativa que visa abrir a competitividade de participação de modo isonômico entre os bancos, instituições financeiras e de pagamento, mas que promete ser um mecanismo que irá trazer para a sociedade brasileira inclusão financeira e social, por ser extremamente acessível e que visa atender e beneficiar toda a sociedade brasileira., This study is based on the current scenario of technological revolution that is happening in Brazilian society, taking into account that due to social mutability, economic relations are being gradually changed. Based on this, the Banco Central do Brasil, identified the need to adapt the National Financial System to this new virtual reality and realized that electronic payments are more efficient than traditional forms, has developed a democratic instant payment ecosystem, with aims of stimulating the knowledge and foster financial education for the Brazilian population. Therefore, this article will analyze the disadvantages, advantages and effectiveness of this new revolutionary and technological instant payment mechanism that will be implemented in the national financial system, with the promise of the regulatory institution of an extremely simple, accessible, fast ecosystem, focused on the experience of the user, capable of making any and all types of payments, reducing the cost of transactions effected by the new model, not only being an attractive solution that wants to open up the competitiveness of participation in an equal way among banks, financial and payment institutions, but that can be a mechanism that will bring financial and social inclusion to Brazilian society, due to its high accessibility.

Dans cette synthèse des communications au colloque, il est proposé une mise en perspective des tensions qui se nouent autour des formes de la monnaie et de son utilisation. Quoique les espèces conservent une charge symbolique et une certaine importance pour les paiements de faible valeur, des restrictions multiples se sont développées sur les dernières années au nom de la lutte contre la fraude fiscale, le crime organisé ou le terrorisme. A quoi s'ajoutent la suppression de certaines valeurs, les billets de 500 euros et, à l'opposé, les pièces de 1 ou 2 cents. Cependant, une remise en cause plus substantielle s'affirme sous l'effet du développement de l'introduction des nouvelles technologies dans le secteur des paiements: la réalisation des paiements scripturaux approchent dorénavant l'immédiateté; de nouvelles monnaies, locales, virtuelles trouvent de nouveaux publics, et entrent en concurrence avec la monnaie légale.

Implementation of NFC Technology was developed to facilitate instant payment transaction such as purchase tickets, goods, or service to become one of the digital wallet besides to using credit cards. The high rate of mobile devices usage in Indonesia make many companies take advantage of this device as a media in electronic payment transactions, a lot of banking and financial product in Indonesia used this technology such as E-money, T-cash, Flazz, Ooredoo, Dompetku, XL-Tunaiku, Doku Wallet, Skye card, Artajasa MYNT and many more. The technique that used in this research to prove the hypotheses was Structural Equation Model (SEM) using Smart PLS software, we will used questionnaire and literature review method to found trend of NFC use. The population from which to draw conclusion was defined as all individual capable use NFC Technology for payment transaction .In this study, we will investigate NFC use in Indonesia, The proposed research model was develop by TAM Framework with some dimension from NFC study literature that is Mobile Payment Knowledge, Technology, Trust, Behaviour and Compatibility into the model, in order to determine the significant factor that influence of NFC use in Indonesia.