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BACKGROUND: The largest poverty alleviation program in the US is the earned income tax credit (EITC), providing $60 billion to over 25 million families annually. While research has shown positive impacts of EITC receipt in pregnancy, there is little evidence on whether the timing of receipt may lead to differences in pregnancy outcomes. We used a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design, taking advantage of EITC tax disbursement each spring to examine whether trimester of receipt was associated with perinatal outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis of California linked birth certificate and hospital discharge records. The sample was drawn from the linked CA birth certificate and discharge records from 2007-2012 (N = 2,740,707). To predict eligibility, we created a probabilistic algorithm in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and applied it to the CA data. Primary outcome measures included preterm birth, small-for-gestational age (SGA), gestational diabetes, and gestational hypertension/preeclampsia. RESULTS: Eligibility for EITC receipt during the third trimester was associated with a lower risk of preterm birth compared with preconception. Eligibility for receipt in the preconception period resulted in improved gestational hypertension and SGA. CONCLUSION: This analysis offers a novel method to impute EITC eligibility using a probabilistic algorithm in a data set with richer sociodemographic information relative to the clinical and administrative data sets from which outcomes are drawn. These results could be used to determine the optimal intervention time point for future income supplementation policies. Future work should examine frequent income supplementation such as the minimum wage or basic income programs.

Abstract Background The largest poverty alleviation program in the US is the earned income tax credit (EITC), providing $60 billion to over 25 million families annually. While research has shown positive impacts of EITC receipt in pregnancy, there is little evidence on whether the timing of receipt may lead to differences in pregnancy outcomes. We used a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design, taking advantage of EITC tax disbursement each spring to examine whether trimester of receipt was associated with perinatal outcomes. Methods We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis of California linked birth certificate and hospital discharge records. The sample was drawn from the linked CA birth certificate and discharge records from 2007–2012 (N = 2,740,707). To predict eligibility, we created a probabilistic algorithm in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and applied it to the CA data. Primary outcome measures included preterm birth, small-for-gestational age (SGA), gestational diabetes, and gestational hypertension/preeclampsia. Results Eligibility for EITC receipt during the third trimester was associated with a lower risk of preterm birth compared with preconception. Eligibility for receipt in the preconception period resulted in improved gestational hypertension and SGA. Conclusion This analysis offers a novel method to impute EITC eligibility using a probabilistic algorithm in a data set with richer sociodemographic information relative to the clinical and administrative data sets from which outcomes are drawn. These results could be used to determine the optimal intervention time point for future income supplementation policies. Future work should examine frequent income supplementation such as the minimum wage or basic income programs.

The crop-livestock integration model is the main path for the sustainable development of agriculture and animal husbandry in China, and farmers' participation behavior is critical to the formation of this model. So this paper based on a field survey data of 615 farmers in 10 pilot counties of Crop-Livestock Integration (CLI) in the dairy industry in the east, middle, and west of Inner Mongolia, the relationship among transaction costs, farmers' decision-making of participating in the CLI model, and income effects was analyzed using the Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model in this paper. The results show that under the current market environment, the proportion of farmers participating in the CLI model is 37.56% of the farmer surveyed. The high costs of information searching, negotiation, and execution are the critical factors to inhibit farmers from participating in the CLI model. The results of the counterfactual test of the ESR model show that the effect of the CLI model on the income of participated farmers is not noticeable, while the effect is more significant on the income of non-participating farmers. Moreover, there is no obvious heterogeneity in the effects of the farmer level and "farmers-to-farm" level CLI models on farmers' income. Based on these conclusions, this paper proposes that the government should actively promote the establishment of the information-sharing platform and training mechanism about the CLI model, reduce farmers' costs in information searching and negotiation, optimize the incentive policy of the CLI model, incorporate the farmers planting forage into the subsidy scope of the CLI model, improve the economic benefits of farmers participating in the CLI model, and stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers participating in the CLI model, so as to effectively promote the realization of the CLI model in the animal husbandry industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the impact of the poverty alleviation relocation (PAR) program on rural household income and evaluates the heterogeneous income effects of various relocation modes, based on a panel dataset of relocated households from 16 counties in eight Chinese provinces. The results show that participation in the PAR increases the income of both rural and urban resettlers. More specifically, it has a significant positive effect on agricultural and wage income for rural and urban resettlers, respectively. Further analyses show that the income increase for rural resettlers was mainly due to agricultural technology training and that the income increase for town resettlers was attributed to medical security. For the village resettlers, policies should focus on strengthening the development of local industries and training of agricultural technologies. For the urban resettlers, non-agricultural employment and public services in the urban resettlement areas should be promoted.

Indirect rebound effects on the consumer level occur when potential greenhouse gas emission savings from the usage of more efficient technologies or more sufficient consumption in one consumption area are partially or fully offset through the consumers’ adverse behavioral responses in other areas. As both economic (e.g., price effects) and psychological (e.g., moral licensing) mechanisms can stimulate these indirect rebound effects, they have been studied in different fields, including economics, industrial ecology, psychology, and consumer research. Consequently, the literature is highly fragmented and disordered. To integrate the body of knowledge for an interdisciplinary audience, we review and summarize the previous literature, covering the microeconomic quantification of indirect rebounds based on observed expenditure behavior and the psychological processes underlying indirect rebounds. The literature review reveals that economic quantifications and psychological processes of indirect rebound effects have not yet been jointly analyzed. We derive directions for future studies, calling for a holistic research agenda that integrates economic and psychological mechanisms.

Soil and water conservation (SWC) technologies contribute to sustainable agriculture and rural poverty reduction. Yet, the relationship between farm household income and SWC investment is not well-understood in Rwanda. This study aims to assess the effects of investing in SWC on household income and improve the knowledge of how various classes of smallholders can benefit from such an investment at a farm level. The study used survey data from 422 farming households in northern Rwanda's Burera, Gakenke and Musanze districts. Descriptive analysis was employed to determine levels of use of SWC and SF measures. Quantile estimation classified three classes of farming households: the poor, middle-income earners and the rich. Instrumental variable quantile regression was adopted to assess heterogeneous effects of financing SWC investment. The results revealed that the extent of using SWC and SF measures is generally low. Agriculture income and off-farm (casual) wages had the largest income shares among the poor and middle-income earners. Financing investment in SWC increases income significantly for middle-income earners, i.e. five times more than the poor, but it was ineffective for the wealthy. Socio-economic factors and commercial crops had a significant effect on income across the classes. Institutional factors demonstrated no significant impact on the poor and middle-income earners. The findings suggest that incorporating pro-poor interventions in SWC investment would increase the productivity and commercialisation of cash and staple crops. These results inform a need to promote linkages between SWC investment and income diversification strategies to increase asset-building for the poor and close income gaps among the three farming classes. This finding suggests the need to introduce saving and lending innovations in SWC that link farm activities to nonfarm opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interrelations between indeterminacy and progressive income tax rules are discussed in a one-sector real business cycle model with capacity utilization, productive increasing returns, and the Jaimovich-Rebelo preferences that exhibit varying degrees of income effect. When the values of income effect are large and the other parameter values are plausible, a moderately progressive income tax schedule can destabilize the economy by generating local indeterminacy. Moreover, numerical examples show that when an income tax schedule with a progressivity feature destabilizes the economy, the degree of income effect and the minimum level of increasing returns required for local indeterminacy are negatively related. These results are in contrast to those obtained in Guo and Lansing (1998), in which a progressive tax schedule can stabilize the one-sector economy with increasing returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates factors that influence the choice of marketing strategies among dairy farmers in Ethiopia. The farmers used three marketing strategies, namely, milk products marketing (26 per cent), raw milk marketing (59 per cent), and both milk products marketing and raw milk marketing (15 per cent). The results showed that the following factors influenced the probability of choosing a raw milk marketing strategy over milk products marketing: age of the household head, proportion of crossbreed cows owned, total milk produced, distance to the market, income per litre of milk, and cooperative membership. Further analysis revealed that dairy farmers are better off if they utilize the raw milk marketing strategy, which has higher returns. Farmers who relied only on milk products marketing had significantly lower dairy income. It is recommended that tailored efforts are channelled towards improving access to raw milk markets by establishing more milk collection points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we utilize a real business cycle model with home production, productive increasing returns and the Jaimovich-Rebelo's preferences that allow for varying degrees of income effect, to show that when the values of income effect are intermediary and the level of increasing returns is reasonably high, the economy can be subject to local indeterminacy, provided that the other model parameters take reasonable values. In particular, we show that in the indeterminacy region, the minimum level of productive externality that induces instability increases as the income effect increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Women’s breast cancer (BC) in Africa is detrimental to development, given the role women play in their families and society’s well-being. Policymakers should be alerted to the effects of BC. This paper describes the income impact of breast cancer and assesses factors that influence income and productivity among women with BC. Cross-sectional data were collected using questionnaires on 200 women with clinically confirmed BC cases in Southwest Nigeria over 6 months. About sixty-one percent (61.5%) of the women with clinically confirmed BC cases were self-employed, 62% were absent at the workplace for 7 days, indicating that 31.8% suffered productivity loss at the workplace on average. Sixteen percent of women in the group were absent at the workplace for an average of 10 days, showing a 45.5% productivity loss at the workplace. Lastly, 22% of the women were absent at the workplace for more than 2 weeks on average. An increasing incidence of BC among women causes a 26.2% decrease in productivity level at the workplace. The results from simple linear regression corroborate the findings from the descriptive statistics that BC has a significant but inverse effect on women’s income and productivity. It showed that an increase in the number of confirmed cases of BC will decrease economic impact and productivity by 13.5% and 19.5%, respectively. These findings urgently call for the attention of the policymakers.

Using high-frequency data, I show that the supply of electricity by solar households can be downward sloping. I document that households receiving higher prices to sell electricity increase their own consumption as their panels produce more, relative to households receiving lower prices. I test several competing explanations and show that a dollar of electricity income increases electricity expenditures by 23 cents, an effect much larger than a standard income response. The fact that solar households treat income from electricity production as "electricity money" means that production subsidies may decrease the supply of electricity by solar homes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small and Rosen's (Econometrica 49(1):105–130, 1981) method for measuring consumer surplus using discrete choice models has been widely adopted in public policy analysis. For the case of a price change, the present paper elucidates five theoretical assumptions inherent within Small and Rosen's measure, and employs indifference maps to demonstrate that this measure is only applicable to the context of a single discrete choice free of non-linear income effects. The paper argues that, where non-linear income effects are present, the aforementioned theoretical assumptions should be relaxed, and the consumption context revised from discrete choice to discrete–continuous demand. Furthermore, the paper proposes a simple analytical method for approximating the expected Hicksian compensating variation in the presence of non-linear income effects, and compares the empirical performance of this method against existing methods using data from Morey et al. (Am J Agric Econ 75(3):578–592, 1993). As well as offering a simple approximation, the proposed method yields insights on the potential range of the compensating variation depending on the extent of switching between choice alternatives, and on the attribution of the compensating variation to the relevant choice alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Econometric pooled cross-section analysis with income dependent VTTS estimation. • No sign of a declining VTTS for the period as a whole. • Affirmation that the financial crisis did have a negative effect on VTTS. • VTTS growth positively correlated with income growth. • VTTS changes likely caused by a mix of different cofounders, including increasing travel distances, increasing congestion and increasing income. In this paper we ask the question if the value of travel time savings (VTTS) is increasing over time and continue to investigate this based on a pooled cross-section model. The analysis is based on data originating from a large-scale Danish national ongoing travel survey from 2006 to 2016 consisting of more than 400,000 trips. The period is interesting from a research perspective as it offers substantial variation in income, is characterised by structural changes due to increased urbanisation and congestion and at the same time represents a phasing-in period for mobile broadband solutions from almost no coverage to full national coverage. Several things are revealed from the analysis. It is shown that the financial crisis impacts VTTS and that the impact differs across income groups. It is also found that, over the period, VTTS increases by approximately 10%. Although this largely correspond to the growth in the disposable income, it is not possible to point to precise confounders and their relative importance. Rather the paper suggest that the increase in VTTS is caused by a mix of different cofounders, which include (but is not limited to) increasing travel distances, increasing congestion and increasing income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the critical challenges facing China is environmental pollution caused by insufficient use of clean energy. This paper empirically investigates the impact of rural labor mobility on household clean energy use using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). The results indicate that labor mobility significantly promotes the adoption of clean energy by rural households, with income effects and information channel effects serving as the underlying mechanisms. The study also finds that health risks, as an important consideration for household energy use choices, enhance this positive effect. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis reveals that labor mobility has a greater impact on households with lower levels of education, lack of social security, and those located in central and western regions. Therefore, the government should take measures to increase the income of the rural migrant population and continuously widen the information channels for rural households to promote clean energy use. The findings of this study provide a new perspective and evidence for understanding household energy use behavior in China, offering valuable insights for policymakers aiming to expand the use of clean energy. • Labour mobility significantly contributes to clean energy use in rural households. • Income effects and information channel effects are the main mechanisms of action. • Health risks faced by households play a moderating role. • Heterogeneity in region, educational attainment, social security status will influence the effect of labour mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We postulate that bank lending is affected by ECB policy via new loans and via the stock of existing loans. In this context, this paper documents a wide diversity in borrowers' features, loan features and price developments across euro area Member States that produces heterogeneous impacts in bank lending. Thus, countries with higher (lower) inflation, higher (lower) stock of loans longer (shorter) maturities, and higher (lower) proportion of adjustable rate loans are affected more (less) when ECB changes its policy rate. The significant differences in these factors across euro area Member States can distort a homogeneous transmission of the single monetary policy and generate asymmetries in bank lending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines income effects in regression estimates of the elasticity of taxable income (ETI). One previous approach involves the proportional change in the average net-of-tax rate. It is shown that this specification can be derived from a direct utility function. Alternatively, income effects have been examined using the proportional change in virtual income. Estimation of the ETI must deal with endogeneity because observed marginal tax rates and taxable incomes are jointly determined. This paper suggests that where data are available to allow ‘no reform’ income dynamics to be estimated, they can be used to obtain the required counterfactual change in taxable income. This enables OLS to be used with an exogenous counterfactual ‘expected (marginal) tax rate’ proxy. The two specifications were estimated for New Zealand, and suggest that income effects are, at most, relatively small. They are statistically significant, and negative, only when using the change in virtual income. Importantly, the size of the ETI (which varies when income effects are present) is different depending on the specification used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theory relates the gap between WTA (willingness to accept compensation) and WTP (willingness to pay) to the income elasticity of WTP. It has been suggested that empirical estimates of the income elasticity of WTP can therefore be used to test whether an observed gap between WTA and WTP is consistent with rational behavior. We examine this issue for the case of non-market public goods. We identify the theoretically appropriate tests of income sensitivity, and examine conditions for valid income sensitivity tests. We show that income tests may provide false signals in common settings, indicating an inconsistency where none exists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops nonparametric methods for welfare‐analysis of economic changes in the common setting of multinomial choice. The results cover (a) simultaneous price‐change of multiple alternatives, (b) introduction/elimination of an option, (c) changes in choice‐characteristics, and (d) choice among nonexclusive alternatives. In these cases, Marshallian consumer surplus becomes path‐dependent, but Hicksian welfare remains well‐defined. We demonstrate that under completely unrestricted preference‐heterogeneity and income‐effects, the distributions of Hicksian welfare are point‐identified from structural choice‐probabilities in scenarios (a), (b), and only set‐identified in (c), (d). In program‐evaluation contexts, our results enable the calculation of compensated‐effects, that is, the program's cash‐equivalent and resulting deadweight‐loss. They also facilitate a theoretically justified cost‐benefit comparison of interventions targeting different outcomes, for example, a tuition‐subsidy and a health‐product subsidy. Welfare analyses under endogeneity is briefly discussed. An application to data on choice of fishing‐mode illustrates the methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the decades since 1978, when China initiated economic reform, the country's income distribution structure has substantially changed. Unlike the majority of existing studies that use individuals' social network as a key indicator to explain their income in urban China, we contend that social network is an important mechanism that influences income distribution. Using the 2009 Social Networks and Job Search Survey, this study adopts a social capital perspective to investigate how the impact of a social network on income changes with the development of market reforms. The study finds that while social capital from a social network has a positive effect on income, the rates of income return decrease with accumulation of social capital. In addition, with increasing marketization, the income return of accessed social capital decreases, and that of mobilized social capital increases. By comparing multiple resource allocation mechanisms, this paper also discusses the logic of effect change of social capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Random utility models are widely used to study consumer choice. The vast majority of applications assume utility is linear in consumption of the outside good, which imposes that total expenditure on the subset of goods of interest does not affect demand for inside goods and restricts demand curvature and pass‐through. We show that relaxing these restrictions can be important, particularly if one is interested in the distributional effects of a policy change, even in a market for a small budget share product category. We consider the use of tax policy to lower fat consumption and show that a specific (per unit) tax results in larger reductions than an ad valorem tax, but at a greater cost to consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary It has been intensively and controversially discussed whether “good” economic policies and governance in the recipient countries render foreign aid more effective in alleviating poverty and stimulating economic growth. By contrast, the question of whether aid recipient countries would benefit from stronger income effects if foreign donors provided higher quality aid has received scant attention so far. We make use of the index of donor performance from the Center for Global Development to compare the effects of quality-adjusted aid and unadjusted aid on changes in GDP per capita. Our difference-in-differences analysis reveals significant and quantitatively important treatment effects for quality-adjusted aid after the introduction of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness in 2005, while we do not find significant treatment effects for unadjusted aid. This implies that only recipient countries with increased aid inflows of high quality benefit in terms of increasing GDP per capita. The quality of aid matters most when accounting for delayed effects. However, our results depend on the sample of recipient countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both social norms and monetary fines can deter acts that are privately beneficial but socially undesirable. The number and the identities of those who commit the acts differ between with norms and with fines. Fines are more likely to make higher-income individuals better off than norms. As a society becomes more affluent, fines are more likely to increase the number of those who commit than norms, and norms become the better system of deterring socially undesirable acts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The combination of credit constraints and indivisible consumption goods may induce some risk-averse individuals to gamble to have a chance of crossing a purchasing threshold. This idea has been demonstrated theoretically, but not explored empirically. We test this idea by focusing on a key implication: income effects for individuals who choose to gamble are likely to be larger than for the general population. Using UK data on gambling wins, other windfalls and durable goods purchases, we show that winners display higher income effects than non-winners but only amongst those likely to be credit-constrained. This is consistent with credit-constrained, risk-averse agents gambling to convexify their budget set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to model the travel behaviour of socially disadvantaged population segments in the United Kingdom (UK) using the data from the UK National Travel Survey 2002–2010. This was achieved by introducing additional socioeconomic variables into a standard national-level trip end model (TEM) and using purpose-based analysis of the travel behaviours of certain key socially disadvantaged groups. Specifically the paper aims to explore how far the economic and social disadvantages of these individuals can be used to explain the inequalities in their travel behaviours. The models demonstrated important differences in travel behaviours according to household income, presence of children in the household, possession of a driver’s licence and belonging to a vulnerable population group, such as being disabled, non-white or having single parent household status. In the case of household income, there was a non-linear relationship with trip frequency and a linear one with distance travelled. The recent economic austerity measures that have been introduced in the UK and many other European countries have led to major cutbacks in public subsidies for socially necessary transport services, making results such as these increasingly important for transport policy decision-making. The results indicate that the inclusion of additional socioeconomic variables is useful for identifying significant differences in the trip patterns and distances travelled by low-income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European Union (EU) policymakers have persistently supported first-generation biofuels despite the clearly emerging picture of small or even negative green house gas mitigation effects. This leads to the conclusion that support is driven by other objectives, for example income effects. Against this background, the main objective of this article is to analyse the income effects of abolishing biofuel policies, as well as to explore the link between these effects and lobbying decisions taken by farmers' associations representing different groups of German farmers. Income effects are estimated for different farm types and regions, and differences between farm net value added and family farm income are analysed. To understand the link between income effects and lobbying decisions, our quantitative results are compared with the biofuel policy positions of different farmers' associations. Our results suggest that, in the long run, average income effects are small, especially if the ownership of production factors is accounted for in the income calculation. Many farms show losses if biofuel support is abolished, but others even benefit from lower rental costs and experience positive income effects. Farmers' associations seem to be able to well assess the income effects of EU biofuel policy for different types of farms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The preponderance of evidence from many studies is that less wealthy households are subjected to greater exposure per capita and in aggregate to air pollution, water pollution, and toxic wastes. It also is the case that the less wealthy are provided with a disproportionately low amount of other programs to enhance amenities provided by the natural environment, such as recreational resources and high-quality esthetic opportunities (both quality and quantity). However, to date, no study has quantified the scale of this effect on the less wealthy as compared to their more wealthy counterparts when it comes to policy choices made on the basis of benefits analysis. This study provides a new equity adjustment method to measure quantitatively the effect of this inequity in the case of public goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact on income from the economic crisis of 2008, especially in the case of Greece. We outline literature results relating to income effects of economic crises in various parts of the world in general and the recent economic crisis in particular. What if revealed is that crises always affect the distribution of income and aggravate the problem of poverty, since the weight tends to be unevenly distributed. During the recent economic crisis, risk of poverty has increased, employment prospects are deteriorating and fiscal consolidation measures tend to reinforce inequality. Based on the results of an empirical investigation of secondary data on the income tax and its share on professional and income groups, we study the effects of the economic crisis and the measures implemented to deal with it in Greece. During the recent crisis in Greece, despite the reduction in income, total tax burden was increased due to the increased share of indirect taxes in total tax revenue. Furthermore the share of wages on GDP declined dramatically. It is the lower income groups that shouldered the brunt of fiscal adjustment. After the applied measures, a redistribution of income from the middle and mainly from low to high and very high income groups is recorded, despite the fact that wages and salaries, much less than corporate profits, contribute to overall inequality mainly due to tax evasion. The main mechanism responsible for unequal income distribution involves anti-development and anti-social austerity measures (fiscal and institutional arrangements to enhance labour market flexibility, etc.) implemented under the Memorandum, which led to an increase in the tax burden, mostly of lower incomes, a reduction on available income of households and a deterioration in indicators of economic and social welfare, income inequality and absolute poverty. The economic crisis and the measures implemented to deal with it in Greece, as in other regions of the world in the past and today, is utilized for a high-intensity (in size) and area (in the range of social groups affected) redistribution of wealth, through which the poor become poorer and the rich richer. The European strategy to address the crisis in the Eurozone and especially in Greece reinforced the inequalities and therefore operates as an obstacle to economic recovery and the equitable sharing of its results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from various types of energy efficiency improvement and behavioural change by UK households and explores how these effects vary with total expenditure. The methodology is based upon estimates of the expenditure elasticity and GHG intensity of 16 categories of goods and services, and allows for the capital cost and embodied emissions of the energy efficiency measures themselves. The study finds that rebound effects, in GHG terms, are modest (0–32%) for measures affecting domestic energy use, larger (25–65%) for measures affecting vehicle fuel use and very large (66–106%) for measures that reduce food waste. Furthermore, measures undertaken by low income households are associated with the largest rebound effects, with direct emissions forming a larger proportion of the total rebound effect for those households. Measures that are subsidised or affect highly taxed energy commodities may be less effective in reducing aggregate emissions. These findings highlight the importance of allowing for rebound effects within policy appraisals, as well as reinforcing the case for economy-wide carbon pricing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

African governments imposed mobility restrictions to suppress the spread of COVID-19. Many observers feared these measures would dramatically decrease incomes and increase food insecurity and anticipated that urban households would be much more impacted than rural ones. We use rural and urban survey data from 4000 households across five African countries to assess the pandemic's effect on incomes and food consumption. We find that a large share of the population saw incomes drop between March and July 2020. But these decreases were 43–63% smaller than predictions and early estimates, and highly correlated with the severity of restrictions. The income and food consumption impacts of the COVID-19 shock were widespread over both rural and urban areas. Policy making during a pandemic should recognize that restrictive measures will affect rural and urban, farming and non-farming, and richer and poorer households. • We use rural & urban level representative phone survey data from 5 African countries. • Impacts of COVID-19 were highly correlated with the severity of restrictions. • Negative income effects were 43%–63% smaller than predictions. • Income and food consumption effects were mostly similar in rural & urban areas. • Impacts were large enough to drive millions of households below poverty. • Impacts of pandemic restrictions cut across locations and household characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sets out a model of technical change and health care cost growth for a representative Medicare beneficiary facing a budget constraint. Derivation of an explicit expression for health care cost growth shows how technological change and preferences, including income effects, affect cost growth. The analysis highlights the role of the 76% subsidy from current taxpayers to Medicare beneficiaries for purchase of health insurance. This subsidy insulates beneficiaries from the income effects of cost growth by shifting the costs and income effects to taxpayers. Simulations show that over the next 10-20 years, income effects will have little effect on cost growth in Medicare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In Uganda, the growing importance of rice as a major source of food and income was boosted by the introduction of high-yielding and stress-tolerant “New Rice for Africa” (NERICA) upland rice in 2002. My research, which was informed by interviews with smallholder farmers who have become part of the recent surge in NERICA production in Hoima district, demonstrates that NERICA offers an effective entry point into more commercially oriented modes of production for many women farmers. It also shows that the effects of this new income on a married woman’s well-being depend on her success in bargaining with her husband for the share of the proceeds. While sub-Saharan Africa does not stand out in the history of rice, the future trajectory of rice will, to a much greater extent, be an African one. A careful analysis of the way the proceeds from NERICA are shared within grower households can shed light both on the dynamics that surround its adoption, and on its impact on the well-being of individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]