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Amaç: Sanayi üretim endeksi ile ilgili literatür incelendiğinde sanayi üretim endeksini etkileyen faktörlerin birbirinden farklılaştığı görülmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, makroekonomik göstergelerin ve borsa performansının Türkiye'nin sanayi üretim endeksi üzerindeki etkisini ampirik olarak analiz etmektir. Yöntem: Çalışma, 2016:01 ile 2023:12 arasındaki dönemi kapsamaktadır. İncelenen makroekonomik değişkenler enflasyon, mevduat faiz oranı ve reel efektif döviz kuru ve ek olarak Borsa İstanbul 100 endeksidir. Değişkenlerin durağanlığını araştırmak için ADF testi kullanılmış ve vektör otoregresyon (VAR) metodolojisinin Etki-Tepki Analizi, makroekonomik değişkenler ile sanayi üretim endeksi üzerindeki borsa getirisi arasındaki ilişkiye uygulanmıştır. Amaçlanan, değişkenlerden birinde oluşan bir birimlik şokun diğer değişken üzerindeki etkisini ölçmektir. Bulgular: Çalışma bulguları sanayi üretim endeksinin kendisinde ve diğer değişkenlerdeki birim şokluk değişimlerin etkisinin ortalama 2-4 dönem sonrasında sıfıra yakınsadığını göstermektedir. Sanayi üretim endeksinin reel efektif döviz kuru ve enflasyon oranına tepkisi farklı büyüklüklerde olsa da aynı patikayı izlemekte ancak mevduat faiz oranına tepkisi ise tam zıt yönlü olmaktadır.Özgünlük: Elde edilen bulgulara göre, ilgili değişkenlerde oluşan değişimler 2-4 aylık dönemde etkisini yitirip sistem dengeye gelmektedir. Buna göre büyümenin öncü göstergesi olan sanayi üretim endeksine ilişkin oluşturulacak politikalarda takip edilecek ve etkilerinin yönüne göre dikkate alınacak değişkenler belirlenmiş olmakta ve uzun dönemli etkiler için diğer makroekonomik değişkenlerin araştırılması gerekliliği ortaya konmaktadır.

Copyright of Omer Halisdemir Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Omer Halisdemir University, Faculty of Economics & Admistrative Sciene and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Verimlilik Dergisi is the property of Verimlilik Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The study aims to investigate the causality relationship between investor happiness and cryptocurrency returns. The study is focused on the five largest cryptocurrencies, specifically Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA). Twitter-based Happiness Index is used to measure investor happiness. The sample period covers the period between January 1, 2019, and October 2, 2021. The Zivot-Andrews test is employed to detect stationary of covariates. After ensuring that all variables are stationary at levels, the Granger causality test is adopted to understand the relationship between the happiness index and cryptocurrency returns. The impulse-response functions are illustrated. The results indicate that there is a uni-directional relationship from BTC to Happiness Index, and Happiness Index to ETH. Considering that the causal relationship between cryptocurrency returns and investor happiness differs between cryptocurrencies, it is thought that investors should closely monitor the happiness index and make adjustments in their portfolios in response to changes in investor happiness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Hacettepe University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences / Hacettepe Üniversitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Hacettepe University, Faculty of Economic & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Bilecik Seyh Edebali University Journal of Social Sciences is the property of Bilecik Seyh Edebali University Journal of Social Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Bu çalışmada BIST100 hisse senedi endeksinin faiz, döviz kuru ve altın fiyatları açısından duyarlılığının belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla 4 Ocak 2000-28 Haziran 2021 dönemini kapsayan günlük veriler kullanılarak tüm örneklem dönemine ilişkin değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkilerinin COVID-19 pandemi dönemi ile kıyaslandığında nasıl seyrettiği Johansen-Juselius eşbütünleşme analizi, Granger nedensellik testi, varyans ayrıştırma ve etki-tepki analizleri uygulanarak araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, eşbütünleşme analizi için bağımlı değişkenin BIST100 endeksi getirisi olduğu durumda değişkenler arasında bir uzun dönem ilişki bulunmuş olup; altın fiyatlarının BIST100 üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamamıştır. Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçları ise ele alınan dönem için BIST 100 endeksi ile hem döviz kuru hem de faiz serisi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını saptarken, BIST100 endeksinden altın fiyatlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi ortaya koymuştur. COVID-19 dönemi ele alındığında %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde seriler arasında bir uzun dönem ilişkisi bulunamamış olup, %10 anlamlılık düzeyinde bulunan bir eşbütünleşik ilişki için ise hata düzeltme mekanizması yalnızca bağımlı değişkenin faiz oranları olduğu durumda çalışmıştır. Ayrıca bu dönemde genel dönemdeki kısa dönem ilişkilerinin tersine BIST100 endeksindeki değişimi serinin kendisinden sonra en çok açıklayan değişkenin altın fiyatları olduğu saptanmış olup, altın fiyatlarından BIST100’e doğru ve BIST100’den faiz oranlarına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri elde edilmiştir.

We compare two approaches to using information about the signs of structural shocks at specific dates within a structural vector autoregression (SVAR): imposing "narrative restrictions" (NR) on the shock signs in an otherwise set-identified SVAR; and casting the information about the shock signs as a discrete-valued "narrative proxy" (NP) to point-identify the impulse responses. The NP is likely to be "weak" given that the sign of the shock is typically known in a small number of periods, in which case the weak-proxy robust confidence intervals in Montiel Olea, Stock, and Watson are the natural approach to conducting inference. However, we show both theoretically and via Monte Carlo simulations that these confidence intervals have distorted coverage—which may be higher or lower than the nominal level—unless the sign of the shock is known in a large number of periods. Regarding the NR approach, we show that the prior-robust Bayesian credible intervals from Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read deliver coverage exceeding the nominal level, but which converges toward the nominal level as the number of NR increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Academic Social Science Studies is the property of Journal of Academic Social Science Studies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper reconciles the asymptotic disagreement between Bayesian and frequentist inference in set‐identified models by adopting a multiple‐prior (robust) Bayesian approach. We propose new tools for Bayesian inference in set‐identified models and show that they have a well‐defined posterior interpretation in finite samples and are asymptotically valid from the frequentist perspective. The main idea is to construct a prior class that removes the source of the disagreement: the need to specify an unrevisable prior for the structural parameter given the reduced‐form parameter. The corresponding class of posteriors can be summarized by reporting the 'posterior lower and upper probabilities' of a given event and/or the 'set of posterior means' and the associated 'robust credible region'. We show that the set of posterior means is a consistent estimator of the true identified set and the robust credible region has the correct frequentist asymptotic coverage for the true identified set if it is convex. Otherwise, the method provides posterior inference about the convex hull of the identified set. For impulse‐response analysis in set‐identified Structural Vector Autoregressions, the new tools can be used to overcome or quantify the sensitivity of standard Bayesian inference to the choice of an unrevisable prior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on empirical investigation of the J-curve phenomenon in the Czech economy. There are emphasized some problem areas of past research and suggested, from our point of view, better practices. The entire analysis is framed within the context of a small open economy. Using aggregate quarterly data for the period 2000-2014, we find that the real effective exchange rate has a strongly negative effect on trade balance in the short run; this effect is, however, replaced with a positive one in the long run, thus confirming the J-curve phenomenon. It follows from the computed impulse-response functions that a positive effect can occur as early as the second quarter. Alternatively, if depreciation or devaluation is perceived by economic agents as permanent, the improvement in the trade balance arrives with a time delay (ranging from 2 to 3 years). Besides domestic and foreign income, domestic and foreign interest rate were also chosen as explanatory variables with an intention to incorporate international borrowing and lending. It has been shown that the intertemporal substitution represents a marginal factor for the trade balance determination. Conversely, domestic economic growth exhibits a significantly greater influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land degradation (LD) is one of the most catastrophic outcomes of long-lasting drought events and anthropogenic activities. Assessing climate and human-induced impacts on land can provide information for decision makers to mitigate the effects of these phenomena. The Northeastern region of Brazil (NEB) is the most populous dryland on the planet, making it a highly vulnerable ecosystem especially when considering the lingering drought that started in 2012. The present work consisted of detecting trends in biomass [leaf area index (LAI)] anomalies as indicators of LD in NEB. We also assessed how the loss of vegetation impacts the LD cycle, by measuring trends in albedo and evapotranspiration (ET). LAI, albedo and ET data were derived from MODIS sensors at 8-day temporal and 500 m spatial resolutions. For precipitation anomalies, we relied on CHIRPS-v2 10-day temporal at 5 km spatial resolution data. For detecting trends, we applied the Theil-Sen slope analysis on time series of MODIS LAI, albedo and ET images. Trend analysis was performed for the periods ranging from 2002–2012 (no severe droughts) to 2002–2016 (including the last drought). LAI trends were more pronounced and had a stronger signal than ET and albedo, therefore, LAI was our choice for mapping LD. The first analysis highlighted the human-induced LD prone areas whereas the last detected drought-induced LD prone areas. Considering only the trending areas, which was about 23.4% of the total, 4.5% of this area has undergone human-induced degradation whereas drought was responsible for 73%, although, not mutually exclusive. As reported in the literature and official data, grazing intensification might be a factor driving human-induced degradation. We noticed that the range of variation of LAI is narrow and even narrower for albedo, which demonstrates that land surface response is more influenced by soil reflectivity rather than the characteristic sparse vegetation coverage (LAI ranging from 0.04 to 0.4 in the Caatinga biome), which can barely alter albedo. Finally, the effects of LD on ET anomalies were assessed by Granger causality and impulse-response analyses as means to link land surface feature changes to the hydrological cycle. Albedo had a slightly weaker impulse than LAI on ET whereas precipitation played a major role. These relations are site-specific and, land surface features (biomass and albedo) showed to have a more substantial influence on ET in severely degraded areas. We concluded that drought led to trends indicating LD prone areas in NEB and the degradation cycle has positive feedback derived from ET reduction resulting in an increased net moisture deficit, although the latter statement has yet to be further investigated. The study warns of the desertification risk that NEB is facing and the need for the authorities to take action to mitigate degradation and drought effects on both traditionally surveyed (desertification nuclei) and newfound LD prone areas. We also highlight the limitation of confirming LD, as to date there is no post-drought data available and, lessons learned from the Sahel case make us cautious about claiming that an area is in fact degraded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Trakya University, Economics & Administrative Sciences Faculty E-Journal / Trakya Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi E-dergi is the property of T.C. Trakya Universitesi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The role of uncertainty has become increasingly important in economic forecasting, due to both theoretical and empirical reasons. Although the traditional practice consisted of reporting point predictions without specifying the attached probabilities, uncertainty about the prospects deserves increasing attention, and recent literature has tried to quantify the level of uncertainty perceived by different economic agents, also examining its effects and determinants. In this context, the present paper aims to analyze the uncertainty in economic forecasting, paying attention to qualitative perceptions from confidence and industrial trend surveys and making use of the related ex-ante probabilities. With this objective, two entropy-based measures (Shannon’s and quadratic entropy) are computed, providing significant evidence about the perceived level of uncertainty. Our empirical findings show that survey’s respondents are able to distinguish between current and prospective uncertainty and between general and personal uncertainty. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty negatively affects economic growth.

Copyright of Gazi Journal of Economics & Business is the property of Gazi Journal of Economics & Business and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks in the new European Union (EU) member states the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. In contrast to existing studies, we explicitly account for external developments in European Monetary Union (EMU) countries and in other acceding countries. We do so by using factor-augmented vector autoregressive models that employ information from nonstationary factor time series. One set of VAR models includes factors obtained from a large cross section of time series from EMU countries, whereas another set includes factors obtained from other acceding countries. We find that including EMU factors does change impulse response patterns in some but not all acceding countries. In contrast, including factors from other acceding countries leads to substantial changes in impulse responses and to economically more plausible results. Overall, our analysis highlights that taking external economic developments properly into account is crucial for the analysis of monetary policy in the new EU member states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we focus on comparability of monetary policies of Visegrád group countries (V4). Main objective of central banks function in V4 countries lies in maintaining price stability. For this purpose, inflation targeting regime is realized in a medium-term focus in V4, which means that there is a certain lag between monetary policy operation and its influence on an inflation target. Central bank does not have a direct impact on its ultimate goals. Therefore, any monetary policy analysis and assumption of its effectiveness comes out from an essential existence of a working transmission mechanism. Thus, changes in settings of monetary policy instruments have to be able to inflict causal changes on intermediary markets and via these markets on target markets. This situation can be modeled by the vector autoregressive (VAR) model with suitable variables. Our main task is to compare a relationship between VAR model responses to predefined impulses for all V4 pairs. We use calibration technique for this purpose. Specifically, we will utilize one-dimensional calibration model with a linear calibration function for deriving unknown parameters. Moreover, we will test a significance of estimated parameters. We distinguish between model parameters for before-crisis- and during-crisis- data, because we suppose that financial crisis affects VAR model parameters significantly. Different responses in each country can mean the inability of the common monetary policy for V4 at present.

Copyright of Journal of Marmara University Social Sciences Institute / Öneri is the property of Marmara University, Institute of Social Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Research Journal of Politics, Economics & Management / Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Research Journal of Politics, Economics & Management and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The effectiveness of monetary policy after the crisis has become an increasingly important issues in dealing with the crisis as well as achieving macroeconomic stability. Monetary transmission mechanism refers to the process of monetary policy of central bank affecting output and inflation. Although monetary transmission mechanism constitutes many channels the subject of our study is stock prices channel. In this study the effectiveness of the stock price channel of monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey was investigated since 2002 when central bank has implemented implicit inflation targeting until the second quarter of 2014. As a result of the study, it is concluded that stock prices channel does not operate effectively in the relevant period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the relationship between the hourly changes of the ionospheric critic frequency values of F2 layers in low latitudes and geomagnetic activity is examined by using statistical methods. The ionospheric critical frequency data has been taken from the Manila (121.1° E, 14.7° N) ionosonde station. In order to investigate the effect of sun activity on ionospheric critical frequency, the data of 1981 when the sun was active and of 1985 when the sun was less active has been used. According to the Granger causality test results, on 5 % significance level, a causality relationship from disturbance storm time (Dst) index values to ionospheric critical frequency values direction has been observed. However, a causality relationship from ionospheric critical frequency values to Dst values has not been observed. From the results of cause-and-effect analysis, it is evaluated that the effect of a shockwave occurring in geomagnetic activity on ionospheric critical frequency continues along 72 h, that is, geomagnetic activity has a long-term effect on ionospheric critical frequency. The response of ionospheric critical frequency to geomagnetic activity substantially depends on seasons. This response is more observed especially in equinox period when the sun is active and in winter months. The increase in geomagnetic activity causes ionospheric critical frequency to decrease in night hours and increase in day hours. The same relationship has not been observed exactly, though observed very little in winter months, for 1985 when the sun was less active. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the assessment of the symmetry or asymmetry of price transmission in selected partial verticals of foodstuffs wheat in the Czech Republic, specifically of smooth flour, white baked goods and consumer bread. The asymmetry of price transmissions is examined in the relationship of agricultural producer price - industrial producer price and industrial producer price - consumer price. The analysis itself is based upon the concept of symmetrical and asymmetrical behavior, where the effect of positive and negative changes in prices on individual levels of the vertical to connecting levels is examined, as well as also symmetry and asymmetry of price transmissions between connecting price levels. For the fulfillment of the objective, adjusted vector error correction models and impulse-response analysis are utilized. The analysis is based upon time series of individual prices containing monthly data within the period of January 1999 - October 2011. The analysis itself showed that some relationships between prices on individual levels of the analyzed product verticals show a symmetrical nature, while other partial relationships are of an asymmetrical nature. However, from a comprehensive standpoint, verticals can be considered to be asymmetrical and the asymmetry can be called *upward asymmetry*. Further, the analysis shows a slow reaction of prices to unit price shocks, but even despite the length of the period, a new equilibrium level is reached after deviation from a state of equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper focuses on the analysis of supply and demand shocks and on the estimation of expected costs of introducing Euro currency into Czech Republic (CR). The analysis is based on the theory of optimal currency areas by Mundell (1961, 1973) and uses a macroeconomic approach formalized by Bayoumi (1994). VAR models and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition (Blanchard and Quah, 1989) are used in order to simulate aggregated macroeconomic impulse response dynamics and to isolate supply and demand shocks for further inspection. Based on the analysis performed we conclude that given current circumstances and persistent differences in symmetry of economic shocks in CR and selected Euro zone countries, the costs from introducing the Euro to CR (as measured by fluctuations of real macroeconomic variables) would be nonzero, however presumably not significantly different from equivalent costs experienced in Austria or SIovakia (i.e. not prohibitive or significantly damaging). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents abstracts on economical topics such as wages, the Mexican consumer price index, and monetary policies.

ABSTRACT. Objective: To evaluate three different techniques to quantify retinal blood flow transit times in normal human eyes from fluorescein angiograms. Subjects and Methods: Fluorescein angiograms were recorded on two different occasions in 18 normal individuals with a scanning laser ophthalmoscope. The angiograms were digitized (5 frames per second) and the images were aligned. Mean transit times (MTT) were analysed with a newly developed technique based on an impulse-response analysis (MTTIR ) and again with the conventional technique (MTT SLOPE ). Arterio-venous passage times (AVP) were also calculated. Results: At the first determination, mean values (SD) for MTTIR , MTT SLOPE , and AVP were 3.22 (0.78), 4.88 (1.86), and 1.46 (0.57) seconds, respectively. Detection of an increase of 25% with a power of 80% requires groups of 12, 86 and 17 individuals for the three techniques, respectively. Conclusions: Mean transit time is a well-defined physiological parameter. The technique based on impulse-response analysis allows for analysis of even badly defined dye curves. We found this technique to be superior to the conventional technique in terms of reproducibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates Czech economic development during 2001 and is supplemented by the predictions of basic economic indicators for 2002 and 2003. This article is divided in to several specific parts. In the beginning we focus on economic growth, including a marginal analysis of GDP and industrial production. It is possible to find a detailed net inflation analysis in Chapter two which consists of an explanation of current demand and supply factors and then we present an econometric estimate of the net inflation equation. This Chapter includes impulse-response analysis also. Raw material dependency and the intensity of Czech production is analyzed in Chapter three, including an econometric estimate of oil and gas prices. In the following Chapter - Labour Market - we focuses on gross nominal wage determinants in the Czech Republic. In the last two Chapters we evaluate fiscal and monetary policy, including a detailed interest rate analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of uncertainty has become increasingly important in economic forecasting, due to both theoretical and empirical reasons. Although the traditional practice consisted of reporting point predictions without specifying the attached probabilities, uncertainty about the prospects deserves increasing attention, and recent literature has tried to quantify the level of uncertainty perceived by different economic agents, also examining its effects and determinants. In this context, the present paper aims to analyze the uncertainty in economic forecasting, paying attention to qualitative perceptions from confidence and industrial trend surveys and making use of the related ex-ante probabilities. With this objective, two entropy-based measures (Shannon's and quadratic entropy) are computed, providing significant evidence about the perceived level of uncertainty. Our empirical findings show that survey's respondents are able to distinguish between current and prospective uncertainty and between general and personal uncertainty. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty negatively affects economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]