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Under the conditions of increasing intensity of globalization and integration processes, issues of foreign economic security are of special importance. The level of the country’s involvement in the world economy is considered as a basic indicator of the economic system development. Provided that comparative advantages are effectively applied, openness serves as a factor in the development of economy and allows using advanced world technologies and financial resources. The possibility of growth for the national economy as a whole as well as well-being of each subject of the economic system in particular largely depend on the structure and volume of foreign trade. The study analyses the key approaches of various scientists to the interpretation of the economic category called foreign economic security, assesses the degree of foreign trade openness of the national economy based on such indicators as export quota (characterizing the level of export dependence), import quota (characterizing the level of import dependence) and foreign economic quota (which is an indicator of economy’s openness). To assess the level of foreign economic security, security indicators have been considered in accordance with the Methodology for Calculating Economic Security Level. For each indicator, according to the threshold values, the state of security has been determined and an assessment of its level change during 2011-2018 has been carried out. Since the indicators characterizing foreign trade sphere are in a critical state, attention is paid to the analysis of foreign trade indicators of Ukraine. The list of problems of a systemic nature has been worked out, the main threats to foreign economic security have been identified and priority directions for its strengthening have been offered. General recommenda-tions for creating favourable conditions for economic development in foreign trade have also been provided.

The degree of openness of the economy as the presence of ties with residents of other countries in the framework of export-import operations determines the potential impact of foreign trade on business development in the agricultural sector. Analysis of the indicators of economic openness in relation to Ukraine (the country's export quota, the country's import quota, foreign trade quota) for the period 2008–2019 allows us to state that the national economy falls into the category of open. At the same time, import quotas exceed export quotas by 7–15%, which indicates the predominance of imports in the structure of foreign trade. In order to develop a mechanism for effective management of foreign economic activity of the agricultural sector, groups of factors of external (supranational level) and internal (macro-economic level) environment are identified that have a direct impact on the nature of the flow and the volume of foreign trade. External factors included the following: liberalization of trade rules; the amount of duties in trading partner countries; non-tariff restrictions in trading partner countries; world prices; foreign market capacity; ecological situation; the domestic factors included: tariff restrictions; non-tariff restrictions; institutional component (level of corruption, level of bureaucratization); resource opportunities; level of technology development; domestic market capacity; state of transport and logistics infrastructure; exchange rate. Based on the identification of factors influencing foreign trade on business development in the agricultural sector, their expert assessment was conducted according to 3 criteria: weight of impact, the degree of impact and the probability of increasing the impact. According to the level of agreement of experts, assessed using the concordance coefficient, the results obtained should be considered statistically significant. Among external factors, world prices are considered the most favorable, and non-tariff restrictions in partner countries are considered the most threatening. Among the internal favorable factors, resource opportunities and the level of technology development are in the lead, among the unfavorable ones tariff and non-tariff restrictions, as well as the institutional component have been identified. The identified factors must be taken into account when developing strategies for starting a business in the agricultural sector.

Korea replaced its rice import quota with a tariff rate quota (TRQ) in 2015. A structural model representing the Korean rice market is developed to evaluate this new trade policy and examine the possibility of Korean rice imports under uncertainty. Results indicate that rice imports in excess of the current TRQ quantity are unlikely for a range of market conditions. Two scenarios, which are the over-quota tariff rate reduction and the TRQ quantity expansion, show how the market responds to policy changes. In addition, Korean rice imports are sensitive to consumer preferences for different rice types.

The article reveals the trends in foreign economic development of Russian and American pharmaceutical industry. The study aims to substantiate the trends of prevailing import dependence of Russian pharmaceutical sector and export orientation of American one. Moreover, we define the main directions of export in Russian pharmaceutical industry based on the development trends of world industry leaders. We focus on identifying what is the nature and how close is the relationship between the factors of business’ innovation and complexity, on the one hand, and increasing the sector’s export orientation, on the other hand. The research methodology is based on the domestic and foreign literature on foreign economic activity in pharmaceutical industry. Furthermore, the methods include the pharmaceutical industry assessment by international institutions (particularly, the World Economic Forum). We used the data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) statistics, American and Russian international ratings, and the results of analytical studies of innovation processes in bio-pharm-medical sector. We hypothesise that there is a correlation between the factors of business innovations and maturity, and the volume of pharmaceutical industry export. The correlation analysis has revealed the relation between innovation development and export growth, suggesting the export’s integration into the national strategy of pharmaceutical industry. The comparative analysis of the Russian and American pharmaceutical industries has demonstrated that the increase in the export-oriented products in Russian pharmaceutical industry will be determined by the degree of the integration of information technologies into all stages of research and pharmaceutical business. The developers and ideologists of national export strategy in pharmaceutical industry might implement the study’s conclusions and recommendations on federal and regional levels. Further scientific research should focus on substantiating ways to increase the pharmaceutical industry’s competitiveness, corresponding to the fundamental information, technological and personnel challenges of this industry development.

Shallot is the main priority commodity in the development of lowland vegetable in Indonesia. Demand for shallot increases every year but domestic shallot production is unable to meet the demand. Therefore, import of shallot is needed to cover the gap. On the other hand, the import policy also has changed by government in accordance with the policy objectives. The research objectives are (1) to identify the factors that influence the production, demand, import, and price of shallot; (2) to analyze the impact of import tariff, import quota, and the external factor on supply, demand, and price of shallot; and (3) to analyze the impact of import tariff, import quota, and the external factor on shallot producers and consumers welfare in Indonesia. In order to address these objectives, a simultaneous equations model of Indonesian shallot trade was estimated by Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method. The shallot production is influenced by the real producer price of shallot, harvested area, and credit interest rates. This research indicates that the increase of shallot import tariff will increase the shallot prices, producers welfare, government revenues and net welfare, but it decrease supply, demand, import, and consumers welfare. To anticipate the decrease of world price of shallot (12 percent) and to increase the shallot producers and net welfare in Indonesia, government of Indonesia is suggested to restrict the shallot import by imposing import tariff (more than nine percent) or decrease import quota.

The importance of statistical assessment of foreign economic activities in Ukraine, considering the structure and geographical re-orientation of the Ukrainian foreign trade and new challenges of the globalized and highly competitive market of goods and services, gives rise to the modeling of patterns underlying future tendencies in the development of the Ukrainian foreign trade. The article contains a description of approaches to the analysis of foreign economic activities in Ukraine by use of index models. Several index models are constructed and used for assessing the debt burden of Ukraine, the impact of selected sub-factors on it are determined, and the dynamics of the export quota in 2016–2017 are highlighted By use of the chain substitutions method it is found that the debt burden of Ukraine decreased in 2017, compared to 2016, by 21.0% due to the reduced import dependence of Ukraine, by 12.0% due to the partial debt burden, but increased by 4.1% due to the export losses. The results show that the strongest impact on the dynamics of debt burden of Ukraine came from the import dependence (56.6%), which means that the strict import quota remains the main factor of the increasing foreign debt of Ukraine, which caused 5.9% loss of export earnings in 2016, and 2.3% in 2017. The analysis of the export quota dynamics based on the index model showed that the impact of the international intraspecific specialization of the country on it was 43.2%, and the impact of the exports’ share in the foreign trade balance made 44.7%. That is, the main factors of change are the commodity and geographical specialization of Ukraine, as well as the imbalance in the foreign trade. Results of the analysis of the indices of averages show that due to the growth in export quotas of products of vegetable origin, fats and oils by 12.7%, and under the influence of the commodity structure of exports (–8.4%), the export quota increased by 3.2% in 2017 compared to 2012. The import quota of goods decreased by 17%, including by 7.6% due to the reduced import dependence of the country, and by 10.1% due to the changed structure of imports. Results of the analysis indicate significant change in the trend of export and import quotas of Ukraine on account of geographical reorientation: due to changes in the geographical structure of exports and imports of Ukraine, the export and import quotas decreased by 41.5%, and 32.2%, respectively. The analysis of the commodity structure of the Ukrainian foreign trade in 2012–2017 shows that the largest export positions were non-precious metals (ferrous metals and products made thereof), grain crops, fats and oils, electric machinery; in the exports of services, the largest share was accounted for by transport services, telecommunication services, computer and information services, processing of material resources, and business services. In the commodity structure of imports, mineral products had the largest share, which, however, decreased by 7.36 percentage points in 2017 compared to 2012. Imports of services are dominated by transport services and government services. The Russian Federation remains to be main partner in export-import operations of Ukraine: 9.1% of the Ukraine’s exports of goods in 2017, which is 16.53 percentage points less than in 2012; and 14.5% of the imports of goods in 2017, which is 17.86 percentage points less than in 2012. The main partner of Ukraine in the imports of services is the U.S., with 11.78% of the total imports of services in 2017, which is 6.7 percentage points more than in 2012.

The article is devoted to the problems of development of foreign trade activity of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the peculiarities of their socio-economic development, as well as the problems of transformation of economic systems. The aim of the study is to divide the countries of Central and Eastern Europe into groups according to foreign economic activity indicators for in-depth study of the degree of differentiation between these countries and development of recommendations for outsider countries. The relevance of the article is due to varying degrees and prerequisites development of foreign trade of Central and Eastern countries. The need to form clusters of CEE countries in terms of foreign economic activity is beyond doubt. Selecting the best cluster allows countries in the "worst" clusters to compare themselves with the leader, which, for example, will encourage the definition and achievement of foreign trade development goals by improving development strategies. The article also considers the issue of clustering of countries by indicators of foreign economic activity, such as the net trade index, export quota (indicator of economic openness), import quota, foreign direct investment as a percentage of gross domestic product; outflow of foreign direct investment as a percentage of gross domestic product; portfolio investments. The problems of differentiation between the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are also covered, the statistical analysis of the selected countries on indicators: import and export quotas are carried out, and also these data are visualized. As a result of the study using cluster analysis methods, the set of Central and Eastern European countries was divided into four clusters. The obtained data indicate a different level of economic situation in the foreign economic sphere. Only one country got into the best cluster - Hungary. Two more countries, Greece and Poland, are in the second most developed foreign trade cluster. The rest of the countries are divided between two more clusters, and Ukraine, unfortunately, is in the worst cluster together with Albania, Мoldova, Kosovo, Serbia and others.

Until 1988, the import quota was believed to be the only way to maintain the Korean film industry’s performance against the dominance of Hollywood films. This chapter shows that this policy instrument was, in fact, the main reason for the poor performance of the film industry by inducing rent-seeking behavior. Such an outcome went on to have a particularly harmful effect upon Korean film producers and the industry’s overall creativity. This chapter traces and calculates the import quota’s negative effects and shows how Korea was able to wrestle free from its tight grip following the two US-Korea Film Agreements in the late 1980s. Indeed, contrary to all expectations, these Agreements benefited more the Korean film industry than Hollywood. To emphasize this argument further, the chapter contrasts the Korean experience with Mexico which underwent a similar opening of its film market but failed to develop its local film production because it did not adopt the key domestic reforms that Korea did.

Внешнеторговая деятельность является двигателем развития любой экономики страны, обеспечивая ее устойчивое функционирование. К показателям, характеризующим внешнюю торговлю, как индикаторам уровня международной торговли и развития экономических отношение, направлено пристальное внимание бизнес-структур и государственной власти России. В статье проведен анализ, выявлены тенденции уровня открытости экономики России, а также показателей внешней торговли страны., Foreign trade activity is the engine of development of any country's economy, ensuring its sustainable functioning. The indicators that characterize foreign trade, as indicators of the level of international trade and the development of economic relations, receive close attention from business structures and government authorities in Russia. The article analyzes and identifies trends in the level of openness of the Russian economy, as well as indicators of the country's foreign trade., Актуальные вопросы современной экономики, Выпуск 6 2020

While it is generally accepted that our fossil fuel-dominated energy systems must undergo a sustainable transition, researchers have often neglected the potential impacts of this on water and land systems. However, if unintended environmental impacts from this process are to be avoided, understanding its implications for land use and water demand is of crucial importance. Moreover, developed countries may induce environmental stress beyond their own borders, for instance through extensive imports of bioenergy. In this paper, Germany serves as an example of a developed country with ambitious energy transformation targets. Results show that in particular, the politically-driven aspiration for more organic farming in Germany results in a higher import quota of biomass, especially biofuels. These imports translate into land demand, which will exceed the area available in Germany for bioenergy by a factor of 3–6.5 by 2050. As this will likely bring about land stress in the respective exporting countries, this effect of the German energy transformation ought to be limited as much as possible. In contrast, domestic water demand for the German energy system is expected to decrease by over 80% through 2050 due to declining numbers of fossil-fuelled power plants. However, possible future irrigation needs for bioenergy may reduce or even counterbalance this decreasing effect. In addition, energy policy targets specific to the transport sector show a high sensitivity to biomass imports. In particular, the sector-specific target for greenhouse gas reductions will seemingly promote biomass imports, leading to the above-described challenges in the pursuit of sustainability.

After the food crisis in 2008, the Malaysian government reintroduced their efforts to reach rice self-sufficiency and to stabilize domestic prices by using a rice import quota of 700,000 tons per year. Though with the emergence of trade liberalization and regional agreements, Malaysian government interventions should be limited. Therefore, this article attempts to assess the impact of removing the rice import quota on the rice sector in Malaysia using a system dynamics model. The simulated results showed that due to developing rice-based industry in Malaysia and its effects on the rice market situation, the rice import quota might have a negative impact on increasing farmers’ income, more affordable prices for consumers, and diversification of food in Malaysia.

Purpose : The purpose of this study was to determine the Relationship between oil prices, Exchange rates and maize prices in Kenya Methodology : The study adopted exploratory and descriptive design. Exploratory research was used to understand the relationships among the variables of this research. Descriptive research was used to understand the current situation. The population used for the 3 variables are; Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation (ADNOC) crude oil prices for oil prices, Central Bank of Kenya for KES/USD exchange rates and Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) Nairobi (due to missing data for Eldoret) wholesale maize prices per metric ton for maize prices. Results : The study findings revealed that these three markets namely the crude oil market, the foreign exchange market and the commodity market have separate risk management dynamics and should be administered individually. Central Bank of Kenya prudential guidelines (2008) on risk management that came into effect this year, mandate financial institutions to use derivatives to manage risk by using different kinds of instruments like foreign exchange derivatives interest rate derivatives, commodity based derivatives etc. though implementation has not started. However, current risk management strategies in the financial market allow for hedging against adverse movement in foreign exchange market. This would drastically reduce the costs of imports especially petroleum products and its derivatives that go into production. Policy recommendation : The study recommended creation of a commodity exchange that would add value to commercial participants such as farmers and millers with benefits accruing to consumers. This could prove difficult in the beginning especially in policy guidelines and implementation but would prove worthwhile in the end. Some of the steps taken towards a fully-fledged commodity exchange is the introduction of the Warehouse Receipt System (WRS). This allows farmers to concentrate on farming as they store their produce for future selling and also as security for loans in commercial banks.Procurement policies should be reviewed especially in regards to the oil sector. Although the government through the Kenya Gazette, 2012 has granted a 30% import quota of refined petroleum products to oil marketer National Oil Corporation of Kenya and 100% import quota of crude oil to Kenya Petroleum Refinery Limited (KPRL) hence giving them volumes needed to hedge in the international market, steps should be taken to widen the scope of players to involve the private sector to participate. Keywords: Relationship, oil price , Exchange rates and maize prices in Kenya Purpose : The purpose of this study was to determine the Relationship between oil prices, Exchange rates and maize prices in Kenya Methodology : The study adopted exploratory and descriptive design. Exploratory research was used to understand the relationships among the variables of this research. Descriptive research was used to understand the current situation. The population used for the 3 variables are; Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation (ADNOC) crude oil prices for oil prices, Central Bank of Kenya for KES/USD exchange rates and Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) Nairobi (due to missing data for Eldoret) wholesale maize prices per metric ton for maize prices. Results : The study findings revealed that these three markets namely the crude oil market, the foreign exchange market and the commodity market have separate risk management dynamics and should be administered individually. Central Bank of Kenya prudential guidelines (2008) on risk management that came into effect this year, mandate financial institutions to use derivatives to manage risk by using different kinds of instruments like foreign exchange derivatives interest rate derivatives, commodity based derivatives etc. though implementation has not started. However, current risk management strategies in the financial market allow for hedging against adverse movement in foreign exchange market. This would drastically reduce the costs of imports especially petroleum products and its derivatives that go into production. Policy recommendation : The study recommended creation of a commodity exchange that would add value to commercial participants such as farmers and millers with benefits accruing to consumers. This could prove difficult in the beginning especially in policy guidelines and implementation but would prove worthwhile in the end. Some of the steps taken towards a fully-fledged commodity exchange is the introduction of the Warehouse Receipt System (WRS). This allows farmers to concentrate on farming as they store their produce for future selling and also as security for loans in commercial banks.Procurement policies should be reviewed especially in regards to the oil sector. Although the government through the Kenya Gazette, 2012 has granted a 30% import quota of refined petroleum products to oil marketer National Oil Corporation of Kenya and 100% import quota of crude oil to Kenya Petroleum Refinery Limited (KPRL) hence giving them volumes needed to hedge in the international market, steps should be taken to widen the scope of players to involve the private sector to participate. Keywords: Relationship, oil price , Exchange rates and maize prices in Kenya Purpose : The purpose of this study was to determine the Relationship between oil prices, Exchange rates and maize prices in Kenya Methodology : The study adopted exploratory and descriptive design. Exploratory research was used to understand the relationships among the variables of this research. Descriptive research was used to understand the current situation. The population used for the 3 variables are; Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation (ADNOC) crude oil prices for oil prices, Central Bank of Kenya for KES/USD exchange rates and Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) Nairobi (due to missing data for Eldoret) wholesale maize prices per metric ton for maize prices. Results : The study findings revealed that these three markets namely the crude oil market, the foreign exchange market and the commodity market have separate risk management dynamics and should be administered individually. Central Bank of Kenya prudential guidelines (2008) on risk management that came into effect this year, mandate financial institutions to use derivatives to manage risk by using different kinds of instruments like foreign exchange derivatives interest rate derivatives, commodity based derivatives etc. though implementation has not started. However, current risk management strategies in the financial market allow for hedging against adverse movement in foreign exchange market. This would drastically reduce the costs of imports especially petroleum products and its derivatives that go into production. Policy recommendation : The study recommended creation of a commodity exchange that would add value to commercial participants such as farmers and millers with benefits accruing to consumers. This could prove difficult in the beginning especially in policy guidelines and implementation but would prove worthwhile in the end. Some of the steps taken towards a fully-fledged commodity exchange is the introduction of the Warehouse Receipt System (WRS). This allows farmers to concentrate on farming as they store their produce for future selling and also as security for loans in commercial banks.Procurement policies should be reviewed especially in regards to the oil sector. Although the government through the Kenya Gazette, 2012 has granted a 30% import quota of refined petroleum products to oil marketer National Oil Corporation of Kenya and 100% import quota of crude oil to Kenya Petroleum Refinery Limited (KPRL) hence giving them volumes needed to hedge in the international market, steps should be taken to widen the scope of players to involve the private sector to participate.

This paper develops a global supply chain network model considering global factors such as exchange rate, tariff and import quota. The model is a fuzzy multi-objective mixed integer programming model which aims to maximize manufacturer’s profit and delivery quality of suppliers. We further discuss how to transform the fuzzy multi-objective programming model into a single-objective linear programming model. We use the interactive fuzzy multi-objective linear programming method to solve the model, which provides an interactive framework for decision makers and facilitates the decision-making process under the fuzzy environment. Additionally, the framework enables decision makers to interactively change membership functions to achieve the most satisfactory solution. Finally, an illustrative example verifies the feasibility and validity.

This paper estimates the impact of market access liberalization in high-income countries on sub-Saharan African exports. The methodology exploits the large reduction in trade barriers that was induced by three unilateral trade liberalization initiatives: (1) the dismantling of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement, (2) the African Growth and Opportunity Act in the United States, and (3) the extension of EU trade preferences for developed countries through its Everything-but-Arms program and the General System of Preferences. Using detailed product-level information at the 6-digit level of the Harmonized System and a triple-difference empirical specification, the usual endogeneity-of-policy critique is flexibly controlled for. The results indicate strongly positive export effects, which are especially large for textile, apparel, and leather products, and tend to be realized fully within 5 years. Each percentage point reduction in import tariffs raises exports to the EU by 0.73 percent and to the United States by 0.30 percent; effects are two to three times as large for textiles. The presence of strong Chinese imports has ambiguous effects on countries' ability to take advantage of trade liberalization as the impact on the export effects to the EU and the United States show an opposite sign.

A supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Firms are constantly managing uncertainties, including unexpected delays in the provision of a critical input that can slow down or halt the production process, possibly making the manufacturer miss a delivery deadline. As most exporters are also importers of intermediate goods, supply chain unreliability related to import processing times at the border could impact downstream export dynamics. Exploiting a rich data set built on firm-level information for 48 developing countries over 2006-14, this paper relies on the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator to investigate how unpredictability in border clearance times for imports affects manufacturing firms' entry, exit, and survival in export markets. The analysis finds that uncertainty in the time to clear imported inputs impacts neither the entry nor the exit rate, but translates into lower survival rates for new exporters, reducing the number of firms that continue to serve the foreign market beyond their first year of entry. This effect grows larger over time, owing to rising reputational costs to input-importing exporters, and is mainly driven by South-North trade, possibly reflecting the time-sensitivity of buyers in developed countries. The results also reveal heterogeneous effects across export industries, as well as the mediating role of sunk costs of entry in foreign markets, which attenuate the negative effect of uncertainty on survival rates, as firms delay exiting the export market. Most importantly, the measure of uncertainty displays a distinctive effect on export performance, as neither the mean nor the median time to import impacts survival.

Effect of changes in interest Fixed Cost and Variable Cost to Probability of PT. Pecel Lele Lela International, Branch 17, Tanjung Barat, South Jakarta. The purpose of this research is to know is there any influence between in Fixed Cost and Variable Cost to Probability of PT. Pecel Lele Lela International, Branch 17, Tanjung Barat, south Jakarta Data resources in this research are changes of the income statement between 2009-2014, changes of financial position statement or balance between 2009-2014, The result of this research show a significant influence between the fixed cost and Variable Cost to Propability of PT. Pecel Lele Lela International, Branch 17, Tanjung Barat, South Jakarta. Based on result, there is a significant negative influence between fixed cost and variable cost to propability, In partial there is a significant negative influence between in fixed cost and variable cost to propability and The result of the changes in interest expense bank, exchange rate changes and changes in import quota are together significantly influence to probalilty