Search

Non-PR, 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; IFPRI1; MaSSP, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), El Niño is a phase in an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every 2 to 7 years and typically lasts between 9 months and 2 years. El Niño affects the global weather patterns, resulting in above-average precipitation in some places and droughts in others. Malawi and its neighbors typically experience drier than usual weather during El Niño, which often leads to poor growing conditions and below-average harvests.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; CSISA, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies; Development Strategies and Governance (DSG), Over the past decades, climate change has brought about numerous detrimental consequences for agricultural production in many countries, posing a substantial challenge to the economic well being of farmers while affecting national and international economies. Meteorological data specifically indicates that extreme weather events are occurring with unprecedented frequencies, intensities, and durations. This includes events associated with variations in the El Niño – Southern Oscillation of ocean currents, such as unusually dry weather in June through August in Nepal and other parts of South Asia. For example, during the El Niño year of 1992, a particularly severe drought occurred in Nepal, contributing in part to a 17.7 percent fall in rice production relative to the prior trend. Current indications are that another El Niño – related drought may already be underway in 2023 and into 2024. With the extreme weather events, global economies have experienced a number of recent shocks – for example those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and conflicts in countries such as the Ukraine and Russia that are important exporters of agricultural inputs and goods. As such, this research note explores the implications of a range of agricultural productivity shocks including but not limited to those resulting from a possible El Niño-related drought in 2023 and extending into early 2024 (coinciding with the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons).

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Since the secession of South Sudan in 2011, the Sudanese economy has faced an unprecedented economic downturn caused by the loss of around 75 percent of oil revenue, civil strife, and political instability (Alhelo, Siddig, and Kirui 2023), and more recently, by the impacts of the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war (Abay et al. 2023). The political conflict between the civilians and military entities after the fall of the Inghaz regime and the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are driving further deterioration of the economy (Abushama et al. 2023).

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Myanmar initiated economic and political reforms in 2011, ushering in a period of rapid economic transformation. The country experienced strong annual average economic growth of close to 7 percent between 2011 and 2019. The rural economy and the agriculture sector were also transforming, characterized by accelerated rural out-migration from the sector, which was facilitated by favorable policy changes, increased trade, and improved road infrastructure (Filipski et. al. 2021). Rural wages rose (Belton et. al. 2021), and labor shortages, along with increased access to financing, led to a massive expansion of mechanization services (Win et al. 2018) and other rural nonfarm enterprises. However, the economic transformation was disrupted by the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the political crisis caused by the military coup d’état in 2021. During this recent period, Myanmar’s agrifood system was impacted by numerous shocks, including disruptions to the banking and local transportation systems, changes to international trade policies, rapidly depreciating currency, foreign exchange controls, increasing global commodity prices, and massive declines in income and access to credit, among others. In this brief, we focus on Myanmar’s agrifood system between 2011 and 2019 and evaluate the potential contributions of different value chains to driving agricultural transformation and welfare gains in the future.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Niger is a landlocked country in West Africa, and most of the population relies on subsistence farming. The country faces considerable food security challenges due to a combination of recurring droughts, desertification, population growth, and political instability. The World Food Program estimates that around 1.5 million people in Niger—roughly 6 percent of the population—are food insecure (WFP 2020). Agriculture plays a pivotal role in Niger’s economy, employing more than 80 percent of workers and contributing around 40 percent of GDP. The agricultural system is largely rainfed and productive activities are concentrated in the southern part of the country, particularly in the regions along the Niger River. Only 15 percent of the country’s land is arable, and rainfall is seasonal and highly variable. Millet, sorghum, cowpeas, and groundnuts are the major food crops, while pastoralism is a key component of the agricultural system, particularly in the arid regions in the north of the country. Despite the dominance of agriculture, Niger is a net food importer as agricultural production falls short of domestic food needs (FAO 2018). The government implemented the 3N Initiative (Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens) to address the root causes of food insecurity. This initiative aims to promote sustainable agricultural practices, enhance the resilience of farmers to climate change, and improve access to food (IFAD 2020). While rural households produce a significant amount of their own food, the importance of market purchases as a determinant of food security cannot be overstated. Market purchases are the primary food access strategy for Nigeriens for 8–9 months of the year. This highlights the importance not only of primary agricultural production, but also the broader agrifood system (AFS) in ensuring year-round access and availability of nutritious foods. Hence, in this brief we look beyond primary agriculture to understand the performance of Niger’s broader AFS and how it i

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Bangladesh experienced strong annual economic growth of 6.6 percent between 2009 and 2019 (BBS 2021). While the global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant growth slowdown in 2020, growth started to recover in 2021. However, the recovery was hampered by global commodity market disruptions related to the war in Ukraine beginning in 2022 and the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). The World Bank (2023) projects growth of 5.2 percent for 2023 and 6.2 percent for 2024, which is slower than the country’s pre-pandemic growth rate. Rapid growth in the past has already led to significant structural shifts in Bangladesh’s economy along with a transformation within the agrifood system (AFS). In this brief, we unpack these trends and future projections further to understand how Bangladesh’s AFS is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Nepal experienced annual economic growth of 5.0 percent between 2009 and 2019 (World Bank 2023b). Thanks to a relatively slow population growth rate of 1.4 percent, the living standards of most Nepalis improved during this period; this allowed Nepal to graduate in 2019 from a low-income country to a lower-middle-income country. Nepal’s economy, however, was severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with GDP declining by 2.4 percent in 2020 and growing only modestly in 2021. Fortunately, the country was largely spared the adverse effects of global commodity market disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and from the 2023 global recession (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Nepal’s GDP growth is now projected to reach 5.1 percent in 2023 and 4.9 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023a); this suggests that the economy is resuming its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for 25 percent of Nepal’s GDP and 30 percent of its jobs. In this brief, we further unpack Nepal’s historical and projected economic growth trajectory in order to better understand the role of agriculture, and of the broader agrifood system (AFS), in the performance and transformation of its economy.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Kenya experienced significant economic development in the 2009 to 2019 period. Gross domestic product (GDP)—an indicator of the economy’s size—expanded by an annual average of 5 percent (KNBS 2022). This exceeded population growth and helped raise household incomes, leading to a decline in poverty rates; more importantly, for the first time in at least three decades, the country experienced a decline in the absolute number of poor people (World Bank 2022). While the global COVID-19 pandemic caused negative economic growth in 2020, the economy recovered quickly in 2021. Kenya was also largely spared the adverse effects of the global commodity market disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and from the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Kenya’s GDP growth is projected to reach 5.0 percent in 2023 and 5.3 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting that the economy is resuming its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for about one-quarter of GDP and nearly half of Kenya’s employment. It has thus played an important role in economic development. The sector has grown alongside the rest of the economy despite many challenges including climate variability (Ochieng et al. 2020), weak rural infrastructure (Benin and Odjo 2018), declines in farm size (Jayne et al. 2016), and limited access to farm inputs combined with poor agronomic management (Worku et al. 2020). In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand how Kenya’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Mali experienced modest annual economic growth of 4.4 percent between 2009 and 2019 (INSTAT 2020; World Bank 2023a). With annual population growth of 3.0 percent during that period, the living standards of Malian people improved only modestly. In 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant slowdown in economic growth, while an increase in armed insurgencies by domestic terrorist groups also had an adverse effect on the economy. Mali’s GDP growth is projected to reach 4.0 percent in 2023 and 2024 (World Bank 2023b), suggesting the economy is inching back toward its prepandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for 40 percent of GDP and more than 60 percent of employment in Mali. In this brief, we unpack the historical and projected economic growth trajectory further to better understand the role of agriculture as well as the broader agrifood system (AFS) in the performance and transformation of the economy of Mali.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies; Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS), Ethiopia stands out as one of the fastest growing African countries between 2009 and 2019, with an average annual GDP growth rate close to 10 percent (ESS 2020). The global COVID-19 pandemic coupled with an armed civil conflict that started in November 2020 and continued for two years caused a significant slowdown in economic growth during the 2020–2022 period. Ethiopia’s GDP growth is now projected to recover to 5.3 percent in 2023 and 6.1 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), remaining well below the growth rates achieved in the pre-pandemic era. Agriculture remains an important sector in Ethiopia, accounting for one-third of GDP and two-thirds of jobs. The agriculture sector, like the broader economy, performed well prior to the pandemic and civil conflict, averaging 5.5 percent growth from 2009 to 2019 (ESS 2020), and played an important role in weathering the global commodity market shocks during 2022–2023 (Diao and Thurlow 2023). In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand how Ethiopia’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Nigeria experienced a rise and fall in economic growth over the past two decades. The economy experienced strong growth, averaging 7 percent per year, from 2000 to 2014. Then falling world oil prices caused an abrupt decline in Nigeria’s GDP in 2015 and 2016 and the country entered its first recession in nearly 20 years. Since then, the economic growth rate has remained below the population growth rate, complicating efforts to reduce poverty in a country with the world’s second-largest number of poor people (80 million) (World Bank 2022a). Various other factors contributed to sluggish economic growth, including the spread of insecurity and conflict across almost all areas of the country; policies related to COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 (Andam et al. 2020); the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war (Diao and Thurlow 2023); and general macroeconomic instability (World Bank 2022b). Nigeria’s GDP growth is projected to remain low at 2.9 percent in 2023 and 2024, barely exceeding the population growth rate (World Bank 2022c). First quarter growth in 2023 was only 2.3 percent, reflecting the impact of cash restrictions imposed by monetary authorities during the election campaign period (NBS 2023).

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Tajikistan experienced strong annual economic growth of 6.8 percent during the 2011 to 2020 period (TAJSTAT 2020). This has translated into improved living standards, with the national poverty rate falling from 53.1 percent in 2007 to 26.3 percent in 2019 (World Bank 2023a). The global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2020, but the economy rebounded in 2021. However, as a country heavily reliant on wheat and fuel imports, Tajikistan was severely affected by the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022, and more recently by the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Private remittances are the largest source of foreign exchange, accounting for nearly one-third of Tajikistan’s GDP and more than 40 percent of total foreign inflows. Russia is the most important destination for Tajikistan’s emigrants working abroad, and the ongoing war will continue to affect movement of people and inflows of remittances. Tajikistan’s GDP growth is projected to be 6.5 percent in 2023 and 5.0 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023b), below its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Mozambique was one of the fastest-growing countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 2009 and 2014, with annual growth averaging about 7 percent (INE 2020; World Bank 2023a). However, adverse economic circumstances resulted in a significant weakening of economic growth, which averaged only 4.6 percent over the period 2014 to 2019 (INE 2020; World Bank 2023a). Restrictive COVID-19 policymeasures introduced in 2020 further stifled the economy, resulting in negative growth in 2020 and low growth in 2021. Like many other countries, Mozambique was adversely affected by global commodity market disruptions resulting from the onset of Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 and the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Mozambique’s growth is expected to recover in the coming years, with projections of 5.0 percent growth in 2023 and 8.0 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023b), suggesting the economy is inching back toward its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Senegal experienced annual economic growth of 4.8 percent during the 2009 to 2019 period (World Bank 2023a). With an annual population growth rate of 2.7 percent over the same period, the living standards of Senegalese improved modestly. In 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant slowdown in economic growth, but growth rebounded in 2021. While the country was adversely affected by the global commodity market disruptions related to the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023), its growth is projected to reach 8.0 percent in 2023 and 10.5 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023b). This suggests a much-improved short-term outlook and a future growth trajectory well above its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture is a relatively small sector in Senegal, accounting for less than one-fifth of GDP. However, the broader agrifood system (AFS), which includes processing, trade and transport of agrifood products, and food services, makes up about one-third of GDP. In this brief, we examine the performance of Senegal’s broader AFS and its contribution to growth and transformation.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Ghana experienced rapid economic growth with an annual GDP growth rate of 6.6 percent between 2009 and 2019 (GSS 2023). Restrictive COVID-19 policy measures in 2020 caused a slowdown in growth (Amewu et al. 2020), with the rate falling to just 0.5 percent in that year (World Bank 2023a). Economic growth rebounded to 5.4 percent in 2021, but this growth was fueled by excessive government borrowing to finance an ambitious public infrastructure campaign and ushered in a severe financial crisis in Ghana. By 2022, the fiscal deficit had reached almost 10 percent of GDP and the total debt-to-GDP ratio had skyrocketed to 90 percent, resulting in rampant inflation (32 percent year-on year), a doubling of interest rates (from 14 to 28 percent), and a sharp currency depreciation (40 percent) (World Bank 2023b; Naadi 2023). Economic growth slowed to 3.2 percent in 2022 and is projected to decline further to 1.6 percent in 2023 (World Bank 2023a). Although President Akuffo-Addo blamed “malevolent forces” (Financial Times 2023)—including the global commodity market shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which by some accounts had only a minimal effect on Ghana’s economy (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023)—the economic situation eventually forced the government to agree to an IMF bailout of US$3 billion in 2023. This will be in force for three years.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; Capacity Strengthening; SSSP, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), Based on a set of economywide databases for Sudan that have detailed content on agricultural production and processing, this study diagnoses the transformation of Sudan’s agrifood system against a background of broad economic growth and transformation. Sudan’s agrifood system registered only modest GDP growth between 2011 and 2019. Moreover, little change was seen in the structure of the system over this period. The share of total employment in agriculture fell significantly, contributing to some structural change in the broad economy. However, agriculture continues to absorb almost half of Sudan’s total employment, while having the lowest labor productivity across the main economic sectors. The growth in Sudan’s agrifood system between 2011 and 2019 was mainly driven by expansion in domestic market-oriented value chains. Agrifood value chains that are focused on exportable or imported commodities remain small with below average growth. Comparing sources of future growth in Sudan’s agrifood system across ten different agrifood value chains shows that fruits, root crops, and cereals rank highest in their potential to contribute to a range of development outcomes, including reductions in poverty, improvement in diet quality, job creation, and growth in national GDP. Although the livestock ranks lower per unit of growth, it is distinct from the higher-ranked value chains in that it has a sizable impact on all four development outcomes, while as a large and established sector in Sudan even small gains in productivity can have significant impacts in absolute terms.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Burkina Faso experienced strong annual economic growth of 6.0 percent between 2009 and 2019 (NISD 2021). However, the global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2020, while an increase in armed insurgencies by domestic terrorist groups also had an adverse effect on the economy. Burkina Faso’s GDP growth is projected to reach 5.0 percent in 2023 and 5.3 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting the economy is unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for one-fifth of GDP and nearly half of employment in Burkina Faso. The agriculture sector also performed well, growing at around 5 percent annually in the 2009 to 2019 period (NISD 2021). In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand how Burkina Faso’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Malawi experienced modest growth from 2009 to 2019, with average annual GDP growth of 4.7 percent. The global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant slowdown in 2020 and 2021, and the economy has not yet rebounded to pre-pandemic levels (World Bank 2023). At the time of writing, GDP is projected to grow at 2.4 percent in 2023, which in combination with population growth of 2.7 percent would result in a 0.3 percent contraction of GDP per capita (IMF 2023). At the core of the failure to resume pre-pandemic economic growth rates are a worsening debt crisis, a balance of payment crisis, an acute shortage of foreign exchange reserves, and several external shocks (World Bank 2022). The latter include the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the devastation caused by cyclone Freddy in 2023 (De Weerdt and Duchoslav 2022; Diao et al. 2022).

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Agriculture in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is dominated by subsistence farming. Households grow food mainly for their own consumption and sell only when they have a surplus. The main crops are cassava, maize, yams, plantains, and rice (FAO 2019). Commercial farming of cash crops such as coffee, palm oil, rubber, and sugar is done on a smaller scale. With constant political instability, infrastructure deficiencies, and lack of investment in DRC, the expansion and productivity of commercial farming have been constrained (World Bank 2020). Livestock and fisheries are also important agrifood subsectors and face constraints similar to the crop subsectors. Despite these challenges, DRC possesses robust agricultural potential due to its vast arable land resources, abundant water resources, and its diverse climatic conditions, which are suitable for a wide variety of crops. There is also potential for further development of the fisheries sector due to the country’s extensive river system and large lakes. In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand the recent performance of DRC’s broader agrifood system (AFS) and how it is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Zambia experienced modest economic growth of 4.8 percent per year between 2010 and 2019 (ZamStats 2020). Most growth occurred in the earlier part of the decade. After world commodity prices fell in 2014, the GDP growth rate slowed to an annual rate of 3.1 percent (for 2014–2019), which is below the country’s population growth rate. The global COVID-19 pandemic further damaged the economy and GDP declined by 2.8 percent in 2020. The global commodity market disruptions related to the Russia Ukraine war that started in 2022 and the global recession in 2023 are expected to further harm Zambia’s economy (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Zambia’s projected GDP growth rate is 3.9 percent for 2023 and 4.1 percent for 2024 (World Bank 2023). Its economy relies heavily on exports of copper and other minerals. While mining is a large sector in total GDP, it creates few jobs in the country. Agriculture remains important in employment, accounting for near 40 percent of jobs. In this brief, we unpack the historical and projected economic growth trajectory further to better understand the role of agriculture as well as the broader agrifood system (AFS) in the performance and transformation of the economy of Zambia.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Madagascar’s economy showed little progress during the decade from 2009 to 2019, growing at an average rate of just 2.9 percent per year, which is only marginally higher than the population growth rate of 2.7 percent (World Bank 2023). The global COVID-19 pandemic pushed the economy into negative growth in 2020, while drought, flooding, and storm damages in 2021 and 2022 had further adverse impacts on the economy. Current projections suggest the economy will achieve growth of 4.2 percent in 2023 and 4.6 percent in 2024, which are well above pre-pandemic growth rates (World Bank 2023). Agriculture is a relatively important sector in Madagascar, accounting for nearly 30 percent of GDP and more than 60 percent of employment. The poor performance of the agriculture sector in the 2009 to 2019 period—the sector grew at only 0.5 percent per year—was an important reason for weak growth overall (INSTAT 2020). In this brief, we unpack the historical and projected economic growth trajectory further to better understand the role of agriculture as well as the broader agrifood system (AFS) in the performance and transformation of the economy of Madagascar.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Rwanda has made remarkable economic progress during the past two decades, and its annual GDP growth rate reached more than 7 percent during the 2009 to 2019 period (NISR 2021). The rapid economic growth has been pro-poor, and the poverty rate fell from 58.9 percent in 2000/01 to 38.2 percent in 2016/17 (NISR 2018). The country has also emerged as a leader among sub-Saharan African countries in promoting innovation, gender equality, and an enabling business environment for development. The government remains strongly committed to a set of ambitious development goals, as set forth in the 2017–2024 National Strategy for Transformation (NST 1) and the corresponding sector-level strategic plans. While the global COVID-19 pandemic had a severe adverse effect on the economy, causing negative GDP growth in 2020, the country rebounded quickly and registered more than 10 percent growth in 2021 (NISR 2022). The country was only minimally affected by global commodity market disruptions resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Looking forward, Rwanda’s GDP growth is projected to reach 6.7 percent in 2023 and 7.0 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting the economy is returning to its pre-pandemic high-growth trajectory.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Uganda experienced annual economic growth of 5.8 percent between 2009 and 2019 (UBOS 2020). While restrictive COVID-19 policy measures in 2020 and 2021 caused a slowdown in the economy, the country has largely been spared the adverse effects of the global commodity market disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and from the 2023 global recession (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Uganda’s GDP growth is projected to reach 5.5 percent in 2023 and 6.1 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting that the economy is resuming its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for one-quarter of GDP and two-thirds of Uganda’s jobs. The agriculture sector also performed well in the 2009 to 2019 period, growing at 5.0 percent annually (UBOS 2020). Thanks to a positive terms of trade shock and an established trade surplus in agrifood products, this sector played an important role in weathering the 2022 and 2023 global commodity market shocks (Diao and Thurlow 2023). In this brief, we examine Uganda’s economic growth and transformation trajectory, both historically and going forward. Rather than focusing on the role of primary agriculture, we examine how the country’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to that transformation process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnostics, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Tanzania experienced strong annual economic growth of 6.2 percent between 2009 and 2019 (NBS 2020). Despite the country’s relatively less restrictive domestic COVID-19 measures, the adverse effects of the global commodity market disruptions during the pandemic led to a slowdown in GDP growth to 4.8 percent in 2020 and 4.9 percent in 2021 (NBS 2021). Growth is expected to reach 5.3 percent in 2023 and 6.1 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting that Tanzania is returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. While the economy has been going through a process of structural transformation with rapid growth, agriculture continues to play an important role in both output and employment, accounting for about 30 percent of total GDP and 70 percent of employment in 2019. The agriculture sector performed well over the pre-pandemic decade, with agricultural growth accelerating from 3.8 percent per year in the 2009–2014 period to 5 percent in the 2014–2019 period (NBS 2020). The agriculture sector has also been playing an important role in weathering the global commodity market shocks in 2022 and 2023, thanks to some export crops that benefit from the negative terms of trade shock (Diao and Thurlow 2023). In this brief, we unpack the historical and projected economic growth trajectory further to better understand the role of agriculture as well as the broader agrifood system (AFS) in the performance and transformation of the economy of Tanzania.

Non-PR, 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; IFPRI1; Rwanda SSP, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Rwanda’s impressive economic growth over the past two decades has been accompanied by significant structural change in the broad economy and the agrifood system in particular. This note summarizes key results from a recent diagnostic of Rwanda’s agrifood system transformation, examining the effectiveness of productivity-led growth in different agricultural value chains for promoting development outcomes related to poverty, growth, employment, diet quality, and hunger. The findings show that value chains differ in their effectiveness in promoting these different development outcomes. The wheat and sorghum value chain, for example, has strong anti-poverty effects and is effective at reducing hunger, but is less effective at increasing jobs. Trade-offs will emerge as no single value chain is most effective at achieving every desired outcome; therefore, promoting a few value chains jointly will diversify agrifood system growth and help achieve multiple development outcomes simultaneously.

PR, IFPRI4; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies, The 2010s were a decade of strong economic development in Kenya. Gross domestic product (GDP)—an indicator of the economy’s size—expanded by an average of 5 percent per year (KNBS 2022). This exceeded popula tion growth and helped raise household incomes, leading to a decline in poverty rates and, more importantly, in the number of poor people, for the first time in at least three decades (World Bank 2022). Agriculture played an important role in this. The sector grew alongside the rest of the economy, despite facing many challenges, including climate variability (Ochieng et al. 2020), weak rural infrastructure (Benin and Odjo 2018), shrinking farm sizes (Jayne et al. 2016), and inaccessibility of farm inputs combined with poor agronomic management (Worku et al. 2020). Agriculture, as part of the broader food system, also contributed to growth in downstream or off-farm sectors and helped cushion the economic damage resulting from COVID-19 in 2020 (Pauw, Smart, and Thurlow 2021).

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; MAPSA; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies, Myanmar experienced multiple COVID shocks as well as a military takeover in February 2021. Impacts on household poverty remain uncertain, however, because large-scale in-person surveys were impossible during the pandemic and heightened internal conflict. We use ex ante simulation models and phone survey evidence to estimate the poverty effects of these shocks and identify factors correlated with them. While each approach has limitations, and cannot explicitly validate each other, they both indicate rising rural and urban poverty and capital-depleting coping mechanisms. Wider use of simulation modeling could help mobilize social protection faster than waiting for survey results in emergencies.

Non-PR, IFPRI4; Food Security Portal, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Much of the early attention to the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s food security impacts has been concentrated on countries highly dependent on wheat imports from the Black Sea region. Given the important role that wheat products play in the diets of people in Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Lebanon, and other countries, the interruption in Black Sea wheat trade and high prices have raised serious concerns about rising levels of food insecurity, poverty, and instability around the world. But many countries are affected by price increases across a range of commodities (some predating the war), including in fertilizers, edible oils, and maize, as well as oil, natural gas, and other energy products. How are these sharp international price increases impacting countries and people, and how can countries respond? Our recent modeling study focusing on Kenya suggests higher prices, particularly for fertilizer, will reduce GDP growth and increase poverty rates in the country, putting an estimated 1.4 million additional people below the poverty line.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; KSSP; G Cross-cutting gender theme, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, This analysis is composed of two parts. The evolving structure of Kenya’s agrifood system (AFS) and its contribution to national development is assessed using a series of Social Accounting Matrixes (SAMs) for Kenya for the period 2009–2019. Economic performance is also assessed at subsector level to better understand the contributions of different agrifood value chains to Kenya’s development and economic transformation in recent years. The analysis reveals that the effects of AFS transformation stretches well beyond primary agriculture, creating jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. In fact, the off-farm components of the AFS have grown more rapidly than primary agriculture, although differences in market structure and internationally tradable status contributed to varied patterns of growth across value chains. The analysis further reveals that it is the domestic market, not exports, that has driven the recent growth in Kenya’s AFS. Rapid urbanization and increased incomegenerating opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector are causing dietary patterns to shift, which will continue to shape the transformation of the AFS in Kenya. A forward-looking analysis using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model – an economywide modeling framework – assesses the potential impacts of future value chain growth on development outcome indicators. The findings reveal that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving various development outcomes. Promoting only one value chain may also result in trade-offs across these development goals. For example, the coffee and tea value chains are highly effective at raising off-farm employment in the AFS, but they have weak impacts on diet quality. Likewise, cattle and dairy have strong off-farm GDP effects within the AFS, but are relatively ineffective at reducing poverty. By promoting and investing in several value chains simultaneously, policymakers can leverage synergies and mitigat

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, The Russia-Ukraine war's impact on food, fuel, and fertilizer prices is a major concern for global poverty and food insecurity. Despite numerous studies and editorials on the risks and challenges of the crisis, there is little quantitative analysis of its consequences for developing countries. We use national economywide models to measure the near-term impacts of the crisis on agrifood systems, poverty, and food insecurity in 19 countries. Despite wide variations across countries, results confirm the adverse impacts of the crisis, with a total 27.2 and 22.3 million more people pushed into poverty and hunger, respectively. Agrifood systems and poverty are more vulnerable to rising fuel and fertilizer prices, whereas hunger and diet quality are more affected by higher food prices.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

PR, IFPRI4, AFR; SAR; LAC; Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Policy; Transformation Strategies, Recent global crises have led to diverse impacts across the world’s low- and middle-income regions, reflecting local conditions and differing policy responses. These effects are often compounded by more local shocks and crises, including prolonged conflict and violence, natural disasters, and fragile economic and governance systems. This section examines the impacts of recent food crises to identify both future risks and promising policy options that could improve early warning, immediate response, and resilience building in each region.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Feed the Future Initiative; AgGDPplus, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.