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PR, IFPRI4; CRP2; ReSAKSS; AGRODEP, AFR; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), The Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) was launched in 2018 as an annual report monitoring the continent’s progress in agricultural trade development. Chapter 3, as in the previous reports, reviews the state of intra-African agricultural trade, and provides an in-depth analysis of several agricultural products that are strategic for food security. Working from the hypothesis that total agricultural trade within Africa depends on the performance of trade in specific products, this chapter looks at how trade is affected by commodity-specific trade policies, including those related to food self-sufficiency, regulatory standards, and quality requirements.

PR, IFPRI4, MTID; AFR, In this chapter, we will provide more detailed statistics concerning the (un)competitiveness of African economies in these three value chains. We first study African trade patterns (trade flows and prices) in the cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils value chains using statistics for both the continent and by country, by stage of processing, and by the destination of exports and source of imports. Then we present agricultural and trade policies adopted by rich, emerging, and African countries in these three value chains. We do not make any study here of causality between these policies and the trade performance of African agriculture. We just provide facts as they are revealed by data on trade flows and policies in order to analyze to the competitiveness of these value chains.

Non-PR, IFPRI5; DCA, AFR, This paper aims at documenting evidences on the patterns and constraints affecting the sequential and simultaneous transition of farm power use from manual to animal to engine. It also aims at exploring access to farm equipment through ownership and rental service. Based on a household data collected under the huge and ambitious project called ‘Senegal Agricultural Policy Project’, the result generally confirms the very low use of farm machinery powered by engines despite years of efforts to support agricultural mechanization programs. However, the use of improved farm equipment powered by animals has shown a sharp increase overtime. The study further demonstrated the variation of constraints in farm mechanization transitions defined by sources of power. While demand side constraints such as farm size and off-farm income are more important for machineries than animal plows, supply-side constraints such as rental overhead costs and membership to a producer’s organization are very critical for transition to engine power through facilitating rental service which is the dominant source of access to heavy machineries. Based on these findings, we discussed the strategic interventions that are needed to enhance and sustain agricultural mechanization uptakes in Senegal.

Non-PR, IFPRI5; DCA, AFR, Using household level data collected from cereal based farming systems of Senegal, we examined the prospects and challenges of the Senegalese equipment supply subsidy program. Because of the design of the program—being procured and supplied by the government—we argue that the effect of this program on adoption of improved farm equipment depends on the supply and price benefits as well as the relative importance of ownership to access farm equipment. To empirically support this argument, we assessed the benefits of the subsidy in creating markets and reducing prices and its effectiveness in motivating farmers to use modern farm equipment. Our analyses indeed revealed that though the number of farmers benefited from the subsidy is small, the program has significantly improved the adoption of farm equipment drawn by animals mainly due to its market creation benefit. This has been further confirmed by the qualitative response of farmers who appreciated the quality of the equipment being supplied by the program. However, the effect of subsidy on machinery use is insignificant as it doesn’t provide support to those farmers who primary depend on rental services. The price advantage created by the subsidy program is not as such significant either. Farm equipment purchased from the program and the open market appear to have closely similar prices.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; DCA; CRP2; Capacity Strengthening; NAIP, AFR; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), The Malabo Agenda on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation has brought technical challengesto the development of agricultural strategiesby expanding the number of commitments and goalsunder the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme.In this paper, we describe and apply an economic modeling framework that wasdeveloped to identify the agricultural investment priority areas for a country and to define milestones to track its progress towards the Malabo goals. The framework consists ofa three-layer simulation model that aimstocapturemultiple Malabo commitments and goals. First, the agricultural productivity analysis uses the stochastic meta-frontier technique to assess opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Second, the economywide analysis uses an agricultural and investment focused computable general equilibrium model to capture the Malabo goalson agricultural growth, intra-Africantrade of agricultural commodities, and public and private agricultural investments.Third, the microeconomic analysis builds upon statistical economic modeling to allow direct measurement and simulation of the Malabo goals on poverty and hunger. The modeling framework is applied to Kenya using the most recent data.TheMalabo Agenda simulation results indicate that Kenya’s current nonagriculture-led growth isnot sufficient to achieving the Malabo overarching goals on poverty and hunger. Agriculture-led growthcomplemented by extendedsocial assistanceis more likely to close the income growth and inequality gaps and contribute to achieving the multiple Malabo commitments and goals by 2025.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; IFPRI4; DCA, AFR, Chapter 3, by Anatole Goundan and Cheickh Sadibou Fall, addresses regional trade, discussing Africa-wide and regional trade patterns. The chapter reviews intra-regional trade performance for the continent as a whole and for its major regional economic communities (RECs). It then proceeds to analyze the direction of trade, examine the role of individual RECs and countries in intra-regional trade, and discuss the key commodities in intra-regional trade.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, PHND; SAR, Groundnuts are the most common cash crop and the main source of income for farmers in Senegal. Previously marginal, groundnut exports surged between 2011 and 2013. This new dynamic motivated the Government of Senegal to introduce a tax on groundnut exports in 2017. Senegal is a price-taker in the international groundnut market. Thus, the ex-ante simulation of the export tax on groundnuts results in a decreasing surplus for groundnut producers, while the surpluses of groundnut processors, the Government, and consumers increase. However, the positive effect on consumers is reversed if the introduction of the export tax is associated with a public investment-led groundnut productivity increase. The tax appears to be biased in favor of the export-oriented groundnut oil industry. Although the groundnut productivity increase mitigates the producers’ loss, it widens the benefit accruing to the groundnut processors. The induced increase of groundnut oil exports and the exchange rate effect exacerbate the producers’ loss. The associated negative income effect exceeds the positive price effect, leading to a decline in consumers’ surplus. Therefore, the introduction of an export tax does not necessarily increase consumers’ surplus in a country with weak market power. The economic structure and the external trade features of the country are as relevant as the fiscal policy decisions associated with the implementation of the trade reform.

PR, IFPRI4; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender theme; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, AFR, 17 pages, Spatial interactions are essential drivers of price transmission mechanisms and may significantly affect any food’s policy outcomes. However, spatial aspects seem to be generally overlooked when analysing price transmission. This paper attempts to fill this gap by highlighting the usefulness of spatial interaction and models for market integration analysis. A Spatial Dynamic Panel Data model is presented and applied to Niger’s millet market. Empirical results show that (1) the millet market is partly integrated, (2) locally traded commodities (millet and sorghum) are linked by a cross-commodity price transmission, (3) most imported cereals prices, which for Niger is maize and rice, did not affect the millet market, and (4) no cross-regions price transmission occurred for the millet market.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; C Improving markets and trade; E Building Resilience, WCAO; AFR

Non-PR, IFPRI1; C Improving markets and trade, WCAO, Spatial interactions are essential drivers of price transmission mechanisms and may significantly affect any food’s policy outcomes. However, spatial aspects seem to be generally overlooked when analyzing price transmission. This paper attempts to fill this gap by highlighting the usefulness of spatial interaction and models for market integration analysis. A spatial dynamic panel datamodel is presented and applied to Niger’s millet market. Empirical results show that (1) the millet market is partly integrated, (2) locally traded commodities (millet and sorghum) are linked by a cross-commodity price transmission, (3) most imported cereals prices, which for Niger is maize and rice, did not affect the millet market, and (4) no cross-regions price transmissionoccurred for the millet market.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, WCAO, Rice is a strategic commodity for food security in West Africa. Its consumption has grown rapidly over time as a result of population growth, urbanization, and increasing purchasing power. Dependency on imported rice exposes the region to external shocks stemming from the global market. Given its economic and social importance, most countries in West Africa have developed a national strategy for rice development alongside their agricultural sector-wide policy. In addition, the Economic Community of West African States is actively supportive of national strategies under a regional offensive to boost rice production and meet the challenge of rice self-sufficiency in the region by 2025. Our analysis uses economic models to forecast rice consumption, and then simulates the economywide impacts of achieving rice self-sufficiency in West Africa. Results show that per capita consumption of rice is expected to increase from 44 to 53 kilograms on average between 2011 and 2025.