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The current work adds to the present research by exploring the asymmetric impact of gold prices, interest rates, oil prices and the currency exchange movements in the Indian equity market. The study considers the monthly price of interest rate, crude oil, USD versus INR, BSE Sensex closing value and the prices of gold. A non-linear method promoted by Shin et al. (2014) is applied to 27 years of data from 1990 to 2018 to examine short-term and long-term asymmetrical relationships. The empirical outcome revealed that the variables analysed have an asymmetrical influence on the equity index. Positive shocks on crude oil prices affect the stock index negatively, while gold price changes tend to generate a favourable effect on the stock indices in a short interval yet suggest the adverse impact in the long-run. A positive short and long-term reaction on the equity indices is seen due to the negative move in currency exchange. The results are essentially significant due to the commodities' volatility pattern that plays a determining role to value derivatives and hedging instruments. The asymmetric relation of explanatory variables with stock index offers a superior understanding of the risky environment, especially in emerging financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the relationship between gold prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate, arguing that their interactions are state-dependent and asymmetric under different market conditions. State dependency hinges on different short-term interest rate zones. To prove this point, we determine three distinct levels or zones of the effective federal funds rate using SETAR(2,p) tests. Subsequently, we perform conditional least square estimations of log changes in gold prices as a function of log changes in the nominal broad U.S. dollar exchange rate index for each of the obtained zones. Their relationship is consistently inverse, suggesting that gold and the U.S. dollar are risk-hedging substitutes for normal market periods. This also implies that gold is a safe-haven asset against the U.S. dollar exchange rate risk against a broad range of currencies. The substitution is weaker in the low-interest rate zone, more robust in the intermediate zone, and very pronounced in the high zone. We also perform a Markov switching test on the double-log function of gold prices and the exchange rate. The tests show a pronounced inverse relationship, i.e., substitution between assets, at normal market conditions. The relationship becomes significantly positive during episodes of financial distress, indicating complementarity between gold and U.S. dollar assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the time-varying effects of crude oil prices (OP) and gold prices (GP) on the Turkish stock market using a weekly data series from November 26, 1989 to July 10, 2022. For this purpose, we develop a new hybrid technique, the rolling window-based nonparametric quantile causality test, which allows the investigation of time-varying causality at various quantiles. The results reveal that (i) under all market conditions, there is time-varying causality from crude OP and GP to Turkish stock market returns (SMR) and volatility. (ii) The causal effects of both crude OP and GP on stock market volatility are larger than their causal effects on SMR. (iii) The crude OP have a greater impact on SMR than the GP, while the GP has a greater impact on stock market volatility than the crude OP. (iv) Both crude OP and GP have the strongest (least) causal impact on SMR and volatility under normal (bullish) market conditions. (v) Crude OP and GP have a greater impact on stock market volatility than on stock returns under all market conditions. Overall, our results highlight that OP and GP have a strong impact on the Turkish stock market, and this impact varies by returns and volatility. Therefore, financial investors should consider the volatility of crude OP and GP in the Turkish stock market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose This study examined the effect of the risk-free rate of return and other macroeconomic variables on the stock prices of firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange-100 (PSX). Methodology The data from 2013 to 2023 was collected from the Karachi Stock Exchange website, Yahoo Finance, and the State Bank of Pakistan’s website. The main techniques for data analysis were Johansen-Juselius (J.J.) cointegration and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Findings The findings show that a risk-free rate significantly impacts stock returns in the long run. Further, foreign direct investment (FDI) has a significant positive impact on the stock return of listed companies. The cointegration result indicates a long-run association among all the selected variables. Moreover, the results of the VECM show that the error correction term (ECT) in VECM (-1) is negative (-0.150) and significant. The negative coefficient of 0.150 indicates that deviations from the long-run equilibrium will be corrected at a speed of 15% per period, approximately within 7 months. Conclusion The study concludes that stock prices and macroeconomic indicators have long-run associations. Conversely, changes in the risk-free rate of return by the government or the banking sector have the opposite effect on stock prices. This study assists government officials, stock market participants, and policymakers in determining the profitability of the National Savings Scheme and Banks.

This study aims to determine the impact of macroeconomic variables on bitcoin prices in the United States. Bitcoin is one of the cryptocurrencies that has the highest price and the most users in the United States in recent years. This study uses monthly data on inflation, interest rates, USD/EUR rates, gold prices, and bitcoin prices. To achieve the objectives of this study, Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) were used. The results showed that there is a negative and significant relationship between the variables of inflation, interest rates, and USD/EUR rates affecting the price of Bitcoin in that period. Conversely, there is a positive and significant relationship between the price of gold and the price of Bitcoin in the United States during that period. An in-depth understanding of how macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates and the USD/EUR rates affect Bitcoin price is key to making smart investment decisions in an increasingly complex crypto market. The findings of this analysis confirm that the significant relationship between macroeconomic variables and Bitcoin price provides deeper insights for investors to anticipate market movements and design adaptive investment strategies.

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This article introduces a novel approach to forecasting gold prices over an extended period by leveraging a sophisticated stochastic process. Departing from traditional models, our proposed framework accommodates the non-Gaussian and non-homogeneous nature of gold market dynamics. Rooted in the α-stable distribution, our model captures time-dependent characteristics and exhibits flexibility in handling the distinctive features observed in real gold prices. Building upon prior research, we present a comprehensive methodology for estimating time-dependent parameters and validate its efficacy through simulations. The results affirm the universality of our stochastic model, showcasing its applicability for accurate and robust long-term predictions in gold prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables. Findings: The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China's housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the relationship between gold prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate, arguing that their interactions are state-dependent and asymmetric under different market conditions. State dependency hinges on different short-term interest rate zones. To prove this point, we determine three distinct levels or zones of the effective federal funds rate using SETAR(2,p) tests. Subsequently, we perform conditional least square estimations of log changes in gold prices as a function of log changes in the nominal broad U.S. dollar exchange rate index for each of the obtained zones. Their relationship is consistently inverse, suggesting that gold and the U.S. dollar are risk-hedging substitutes for normal market periods. This also implies that gold is a safe-haven asset against the U.S. dollar exchange rate risk against a broad range of currencies. The substitution is weaker in the low-interest rate zone, more robust in the intermediate zone, and very pronounced in the high zone. We also perform a Markov switching test on the double-log function of gold prices and the exchange rate. The tests show a pronounced inverse relationship, i.e., substitution between assets, at normal market conditions. The relationship becomes significantly positive during episodes of financial distress, indicating complementarity between gold and U.S. dollar assets.

This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of COVID-19 on gold prices by making use of high frequency data and a recently developed nonlinear estimation approach. The analysis considers three main dimensions of COVID-19: daily new cases, recoveries and deaths. The findings reveal that decreases in COVID-19 new cases and increases in recoveries cause an upswing in gold prices. These evidences imply that the reduction in new COVID-19 cases or more recoveries from COVID-19 improves both investors' and consumers' psychological confidence. In other words, the investors and consumers become more optimistic about their future and tend to demand more gold. On the other hand, the increases (decreases) in policy uncertainty, oil prices, and world stock index performance elevate (reduce) gold prices. The study also establishes a positive nexus between equity market uncertainty and gold prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to uncover the impact of interest rates, gold prices, and the USD exchange rate on the BIST 100 index. For this purpose, the effects of the weighted average interest rate on bank deposits, the price of gold in Turkish Lira per gram, and the USD exchange rate according to the Central Bank of Türkiye's buying rate on the BIST 100 index are revealed through monthly data from January 2002 to November 2023, encompassing 262 observations. The analysis employs the Fourier ADF unit root test, Fourier Bootstrap ARDL test, and Fourier Bootstrap Quantile causality test. The findings indicate a long-term negative relationship between interest rates and the BIST 100 index, while asserting a long-term positive relationship with gold prices and the USD exchange rate. Moreover, according to the short-term relationships facilitated by Fourier functions, a positive and significant relationship exists between interest rates and the BIST 100 index at two lags; a negative effect in the current period, a positive effect at one lag, and a negative effect at two lags are observed between the USD exchange rate and the BIST 100 index. No short-term impact of gold prices on the BIST 100 index is observed. Additionally, considering Fourier function-driven causality relationships, causality is detected from interest rates to the BIST 100 index at the 9th quantile and from the BIST 100 index to interest rates at the 1st quantile; from gold prices to the BIST 100 index at the 3rd quantile; and from the USD exchange rate to the BIST 100 index at the 3rd and 4th quantiles.. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has revealed profound and disproportionate effects not only on global financial markets but also on commodity markets. Considering the potential safe-haven role of gold as a vital commodity against economic turmoils and uncertainties; in this study, it has been aimed to investigate the long run impacts and short-run dynamics of the COVID-19 related variables (daily new confirmed cases in the world and U.S., COVID-19 Containment & Health Index) and different macro-financial factors on daily COMEX gold futures contracts prices, especially presenting a comparative analysis with respect to various sectoral stock indexes associated with S&P 500 and Dow Jones -including Health Care, Technology, Medical Equipment, Financials, Industrials, Information Technology and Energy sectors-for the sample period 10.03.2020-22.03.2021 by utilizing from Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Analysis results are of great importance in forming crucial policy implications about by which factors and sectoral stocks gold prices are being influenced the most. Consequently; Dow-Jones Financials, S&P 500 Industrials and S&P 500 Energy stock indexes can be said to have a significant impact on gold prices in the long run at 10% significance level. In the models containing these indexes, CBOE volatility index affects gold prices inversely while WTI oil prices have no impact on gold prices. In the long term, the weakest findings in terms of coefficient significancies have been obtained for the model which includes S&P 500 Energy stock index returns. Furthermore, daily new cases in the world -contrary to the cases in U.S.-generally affect gold prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically gold and inflation have had a weak positive correlation; therefore, gold has been considered an inflationary hedge and a "safe haven" in times of high inflation for investors. An event-study of five periods with deviant inflation in the past five decades were examined in this study to determine the abnormal return (AR) of gold in comparison to the U.S. stock market (S&P 500). These findings concluded a deviation in market perception regarding the inflationary hedge that gold has historically adhered to have. Specifically, the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict caused a large shift in investors' sentiment of investing into gold as a hedge, as the event window concluded significant negative abnormal returns. Simultaneously the U.S. experienced economic factors that would historically have caused gold prices to increase, yet the opposite occurred. Although the Ukraine conflict's final outcome is still unknown, early stage-data shows how gold could potentially not be considered a "safe haven" or an inflationary hedge today, given many dynamic factors ruling the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the impact of oil prices, gold prices and exchange rate on Shanghai stock exchange returns. In this study, we used monthly time series data from January 2000 to December 2018. The dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations model proposed by Jordan and Philips is used to examine the real change in regressors and their impact on regressand by using graphical representations. The examined results of the dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag model indicate that oil prices and gold prices have a positive effect on the stock returns in the short run and in the long run while the exchange rate indicate negative effect both in the short run and in the long run. Our research findings have significant implications for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the emotional behavior of investors in the cryptocurrency market, this paper comprehensively explores the sophisticated relationship between Bitcoin investor sentiment and gold price movements. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the gold price on investor sentiment of Bitcoin market traders and investors using monthly data from August 2020 to August 2022. The impact of oil prices on investor sentiment was examined using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method. The PMG approach considers short-term and long-term relationships between series and provides reliable results in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel models. PMG implementations in all models show the short-term and long-term impact of the gold price on investor sentiment. The results also suggest that gold prices are positive and significant in the long run across all models, and that behavioral factors such as consumer sentiment and global economic stability are important in controlling gold prices at shorter time resolutions. Precious metals have had a positive impact on the Bitcoin market,

Rapid industrialization in recently industrialized countries (NICs) has exacerbated environmental degradation, raising urgent concerns about how energy consumption, gold prices, and fossil fuel prices contribute to this growing issue. This study aims to evaluate the asymmetric relationships between these factors and environmental degradation across 10 NICs, including Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Thailand, South Africa, Malaysia, and the Philippines, from 1995 to 2023. Using the CS-ARDL model, our study demonstrates that while energy costs and renewable energy consumption reduce environmental degradation, gold prices and fossil fuel consumption significantly increase ecological harm. Additionally, the study employs FGLS, CS-DL, AMG, and Driscoll-Kray to verify the robustness of these findings. Notably, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis holds true in these economies. Key results show that a 1 % increase in renewable energy use decreases emissions by 0.7 %, while a 1 % rise in gold prices correlates with a 0.5 % increase in pollution levels. These findings underscore the need for NICs to implement green investments, promote renewable energy, and initiate structural reforms to ensure sustainable development. [Display omitted] • Evaluates the asymmetric effects of energy consumption, gold, and fossil fuel prices on environmental degradation. • Uses the CS-ARDL model and robust econometric methods to validate findings across 10 NICs. • Renewable energy reduces emissions, while gold prices and fossil fuel use significantly increase pollution levels. • Confirms the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in newly industrialized countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the research, the causal relationships between Bitcoin, gold and oil prices were examined. The data of the research covers the period from 2015 to July 2020 and consists of daily price values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test was used to see whether the stochastic process changes with time. Bitcoin and gold series do not contain a unit root since the oil series is stationary at the level while the difference is stationary. The reason why the series containing unit roots are not stationary is due to structural breaks or not, was investigated by Bai-Perron Unit Root Test with Multiple Structural Breaks. According to the test, it was determined that the Bitcoin series has one break and two regimes, while the gold series has two structural breaks and three different regimes. Whether the research series are cointegrated or not was investigated with the Gregory and Hansen test. The causality between the series was examined with the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, which is based on the VAR (Vector Autoregression) model and examines the causality in the series regardless of the unit root. A two-way causality relationship was determined between the eight lag-long Gold series and the Bitcoin series. In other cases, a causal relationship has not been established. As a result, we give an evidence that Bitcoin and gold prices series followed a parallel pattern while with oil not. Therefore, investors can add Bitcoin into their portfolios to make balance of the risk and return.

One of the most controversial concerns among the researchers is the expansion of the green bond markets, so as to reduce environmental pollution. The present study estimates the factors that help drive the global green bond markets, such as energy prices, gold prices, and green energy stocks. The study has applied Quantile Autoregressive Lagged Approach (QARDL) and Quantile Granger Causality test to estimate the causal relationship among the variables for January 2010 and June 2021. The QARDL findings reveal that for all the quantiles, the error correction term is statistically significant with the predicted negative sign. This confirms the existence of a strong long-run equilibrium relationship between the relevant variables and the green bonds market on a global level. The findings revealed that gold and energy prices have a lower effect on the green bonds market on every quantile, and also from the low to medium quantiles, respectively. While at the same time, the green energy stocks have an increasing effect on the green bonds market at higher quantiles. The results of the causal examination using Granger-causality in quantiles show a bi-directional causal relationship between the green bonds, energy prices, gold prices, and green energy stocks in the world economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 epidemic has brought uncertainty to each sector of the global economy, including the financial sector. The widely spread disease has a drastic effect, which massively created health and financial crisis and virtually pushed the economy to the brink of recession. The study focused on the financial development of China during the COVID-19 pandemic and analyzed the long-term and short-term impact of COVID-19, oil prices, gold prices, and global economic policy uncertainty on the financial development of the country. The QARDL model, Wald test, and Granger causality tests are employed to assess the daily data of variables from January 1, 2020, to March 15, 2021. The study's empirical results revealed that an increase in the number of COVID-19 registered patients has an unprecedented negative effect on financial development, whereas the oil prices co-moved with the financial performance. On the other hand, gold prices and global economic policy uncertainty are negatively correlated with financial development. This study offers various policy recommendations to help the investors, government, and decision-makers to make better decisions for the improvement of the financial development of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) is possible when cointegration analysis is applied to experimentally to shape the relationship between the variables without considering the regressors are stationary at its first difference or level, there is an integration of order one or both of the variables are mixed. Being based on one equation framework is a benefit of using the ARDL model, in order to take sufficient lags’ number and directing process data generation process in a modelling framework that goes from general to specific. The aim of this study is to focus on the trend of the relation between the GBP/USD rate and Brent Oil prices, which is done through the adoption of dependent variable which the oil price and the independent variable which is the dollar exchange rate. Another target of the research is to show the relationship between gold price and oil prices. The result shows that there are a number of likely influenced variable through by which the dollar-pound rate has effects on the demand and supply of oil as a result of its prices. That is done through the analysis of the relations between the variables of the study. Moreover, correlation coefficient values are given that there exists a positive explanatory correlation between the variables of the study. On the whole, there exists a positive long-term equilibrium relation between the GBP/USD exchange rate, price of oil and price of gold. Any change in the exchange rate of GBP/USD is causing the changes in prices of Brent oil. Consequently, the results are consistent with and not consistent with other researches that show opposite relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bu çalışmada BIST100 hisse senedi endeksinin faiz, döviz kuru ve altın fiyatları açısından duyarlılığının belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla 4 Ocak 2000-28 Haziran 2021 dönemini kapsayan günlük veriler kullanılarak tüm örneklem dönemine ilişkin değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkilerinin COVID-19 pandemi dönemi ile kıyaslandığında nasıl seyrettiği Johansen-Juselius eşbütünleşme analizi, Granger nedensellik testi, varyans ayrıştırma ve etki-tepki analizleri uygulanarak araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, eşbütünleşme analizi için bağımlı değişkenin BIST100 endeksi getirisi olduğu durumda değişkenler arasında bir uzun dönem ilişki bulunmuş olup; altın fiyatlarının BIST100 üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamamıştır. Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçları ise ele alınan dönem için BIST 100 endeksi ile hem döviz kuru hem de faiz serisi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını saptarken, BIST100 endeksinden altın fiyatlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi ortaya koymuştur. COVID-19 dönemi ele alındığında %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde seriler arasında bir uzun dönem ilişkisi bulunamamış olup, %10 anlamlılık düzeyinde bulunan bir eşbütünleşik ilişki için ise hata düzeltme mekanizması yalnızca bağımlı değişkenin faiz oranları olduğu durumda çalışmıştır. Ayrıca bu dönemde genel dönemdeki kısa dönem ilişkilerinin tersine BIST100 endeksindeki değişimi serinin kendisinden sonra en çok açıklayan değişkenin altın fiyatları olduğu saptanmış olup, altın fiyatlarından BIST100’e doğru ve BIST100’den faiz oranlarına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri elde edilmiştir.

Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) is possible when cointegration analysis is applied to experimentally to shape the relationship between the variables without considering the regressors are stationary at its first difference or level, there is an integration of order one or both of the variables are mixed. Being based on one equation framework is a benefit of using the ARDL model, in order to take sufficient lags’ number and directing process data generation process in a modelling framework that goes from general to specific. The aim of this study is to focus on the trend of the relation between the GBP/USD rate and Brent Oil prices, which is done through the adoption of dependent variable which the oil price and the independent variable which is the dollar exchange rate. Another target of the research is to show the relationship between gold price and oil prices. The result shows that there are a number of likely influenced variable through by which the dollar-pound rate has effects on the demand and supply of oil as a result of its prices. That is done through the analysis of the relations between the variables of the study. Moreover, correlation coefficient values are given that there exists a positive explanatory correlation between the variables of the study. On the whole, there exists a positive long-term equilibrium relation between the GBP/USD exchange rate, price of oil and price of gold. Any change in the exchange rate of GBP/USD is causing the changes in prices of Brent oil.

Considering the emotional behavior of investors in the cryptocurrency market, this paper comprehensively explores the sophisticated relationship between Bitcoin investor sentiment and gold price movements. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the gold price on investor sentiment of Bitcoin market traders and investors using monthly data from August 2020 to August 2022. The impact of oil prices on investor sentiment was examined using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method. The PMG approach considers shortterm and long-term relationships between series and provides reliable results in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel models. PMG implementations in all models show the short-term and long-term impact of the gold price on investor sentiment. The results also suggest that gold prices are positive and significant in the long run across all models, and that behavioral factors such as consumer sentiment and global economic stability are important in controlling gold prices at shorter time resolutions. Precious metals have had a positive impact on the Bitcoin market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

İnsanoğlu tarafından doğada kullanılmaya başlanan ilk madenlerden biri olan altın, birçok medeniyet tarafından öncelikle mücevher ve süs eşyası olarak, tarihsel süreç içerisinde ise para yerine kullanılmasıyla uluslararası para sisteminin temelini oluşturmaktadır. Parasal sistem içindeki önemini git gide kaybetmesine rağmen altın, günümüzde hala finans ve güvenilir yatırım aracı olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’deki altın fiyatlarını etkileyen faktörleri incelemek amacıyla Ocak 2000-Temmuz 2019 döneminde ARDL Sınır Testi ile uzun dönemli ilişki incelenmiştir. Yapılan literatür taraması kapsamında, altın fiyatlarını etkileyebilecek faktörler olarak Londra piyasası altın ons fiyatı, ABD enflasyon oranı, Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, ABD Merkez Bankası faiz oranı ve reel efektif döviz kuru değişkenleri seçilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, değişkenlerin uzun dönemde eş bütünleşik olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

The rapid development of information technologies has led to the formation of a "big data" network by increasing the coverage area of the internet network. The use of big data has gained importance in many fields from science to industry, from the private sector to the public. The use of this big data makes the users of the data advantageous compared to their competitors. The aim of this study is to examine the causality relationship between the data obtained from Google Trends, which presents the search frequency of the keyword searched in the Google search engine and the course of gold prices. The data set of the study includes monthly data on the search frequency of the keyword "gold" in the Google search engine within the borders of Turkey between 01.01.2004 and 01.12.2021. In the study, the stationarity of the variables was analyzed, and then the Johansen Cointegration test was used to determine the long-term relationship between the variables. At the last stage, Granger Causality Analysis was performed. As a result of the study, one-way Granger causality towards gold prospecting was determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Covid-19 ilk olarak Çin’in Wuhan kentinde Aralık 2019’da tespit edilmiş olup bu tarihten sonra kısa bir süre içerisinde global bir problem haline gelmiştir. Daha sonra da Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (WHO) tarafından 11 Mart 2020’de pandemi olarak ilan edilmiştir. Virüsün uzun dönemde hem sağlığa hem de ekonomiye nasıl etkilerde bulunacağı henüz bilinmemektedir. Bu çalışma, bölgesel Covid-19 vakaları, altın fiyatları, Euro kuru ile Borsa İstanbul şehir endeksleri arasındaki uzun ve kısa vadeli ilişkileri ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Nüfus yoğunluğunun en yüksek olduğu üç büyük şehre göre BIST İstanbul, BIST İzmir ve BIST Ankara şehir endeksleri seçilmiştir. Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Sağlık Bakanlığı Covid-19 Bilgilendirme Sayfası web sitesinde 29 Haziran 2020’den bu yana açıklanan bölgesel Covid-19 vaka sayıları ile şehir endeksleri eşleştirilmiştir. Analizlerde, serilerin farklı seviyelerde durağan bulunması nedeniyle, ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) Sınır testi kullanılarak, eşbütünleşme ilişkisi incelenmiştir. 29.06.2020 – 23.11.2020 dönemine ait günlük veriler kullanılmıştır. BIST İstanbul, BIST İzmir şehir endeksleri ile bölgesel Covid-19 vakaları, altın fiyatları ve Euro kuru arasında uzun dönemli ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Diğer yandan, BIST Ankara şehir endeksi için elde edilen katsayılar anlamlı bulunmamıştır.

Purpose – The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses the data on gold prices, stock exchange and oil prices for the period 1991–2016. This study applied descriptive statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation and autoregressive distributed lag test. Findings – The data analysis results showed that gold and oil prices have a significant impact on the stock market. Research limitations/implications – Following empirical evidence of this study, the authors recommend that investors should invest in gold because the main reason is that hike in inflation reduces the real value of money, and people seek to invest in alternative investment avenues like gold to preserve the value of their assets and earn additional returns. This suggests that investment in gold can be used as a tool to decline inflation pressure to a sustainable level. This study was restricted to use small sample data owing to the availability of data from 1991 to 2017 and could not use structural break unit root tests with two structural break and structural break cointegration approach, as these tests require high-frequency data set. Originality/value – This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in gold, oil and stock market. In the current era, gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day, and investors think that stock returns may or may not be affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focusses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help investment institutions or portfolio managers.

• This study tests whether varying volatility indices predict gold prices under different conditions. • Six short-term volatility indices enhanced gold prices as a safe haven before COVID-19. • Negative effects of volatilities have been more substantial than positive effects during COVID-19. • Some volatility results during the COVID-19 period contrast with those in the pre-COVID-19 period. • Only euro volatility predicts gold prices in the long term and during the 2016–2019 pre-COVID-19 period. This study addresses the research question of whether volatility indices of different asset classes reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use daily data for seven volatility indices and gold prices and apply the suitable nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method to analyze the data. Our results indicate that during COVID-19, only the negative Eurocurrency volatility has diminished gold prices in the long term, whereas in the short term, the positive gold, silver, emerging market, and (lagged) financial market volatilities have diminished gold prices. During the pre-COVID-19 normal period, volatilities in the financial, energy, gold, silver, and eurocurrency markets improved gold prices, whereas in the short term, only lagged negative oil volatility diminished gold prices. A robustness test for the 2011–2015 pre-COVID-19 period reveals that this period is to an extent comparable to that of COVID-19. This study reveals no direct effects from emerging markets volatility on gold prices. Notwithstanding, a long memory in gold prices persists and uneven spillover effects exist. Finally, those volatilities predominantly increase gold prices under the normal economic conditions but decrease gold's appeal as a safe haven during crises in the comparable periods. We delineate the implications for investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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[Display omitted] • Climate change leads to significant changes in environmental policy-making. • Fossil fuel costs and renewable energy limit environmental degradation. • Gold prices and non-renewable energy endanger environmental sustainability. • Our empirical estimates confirm the EKC hypothesis for GDP. The continuous rise in global environmental challenges has led to urgency toward establishing a secure framework to achieve sustainable development goals. This study establishes a novel theoretical framework to analyze the role of energy prices, energy consumption, gold prices and economic growth on environmental degradation in newly industrialized economies. To realize sustainable development goals and foster environmental defence, this study utilizes CS-ARDL as the main econometric approach to investigate the asymmetric association between environmental degradation and relevant factors. We also use AMG, CS-DL, Driscoll-Kray and FGLS to enhance the robustness of our findings. Our econometric approach reveals that energy resource prices and renewable energy consumption reduce environmental degradation, while gold prices and fossil energy consumption elevate environmental pollutants. We also confirm the existence of the EKC hypothesis. The findings of our extensive analysis paved the way for a well-designed environmental policy for NIC economies should focus on renewable energy consumption, green investments, and structural changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article continues our analysis of the gold price dynamics that was published in December 2010 and forecasted the possibility of the “burst of the gold bubble” in April –June 2011. Our recent analysis suggests the possibility of one more substantial fluctuation before the final collapse in July 2011. On the other hand, in early 2011 we detected a number of other commodity bubbles and forecasted the start of their collapse in May – June 2011. We demonstrate that this collapse has actually begun, which in conjunction with the forthcoming burst of the gold bubble suggests that the World System is entering a bifurcation zone bearing rather high risks of the second wave of the global financial-economic crisis.

The analysis of the gold price series for 2003–2010 employing both the methodology developed by Didier Sornette and the one of the authors allows forecasting the collapse in gold prices in April – June 2011. The article discusses both the scenarios that could allow avoiding this collapse, and the possibilities of the “gold bubble burst” leading to the second wave of the global economic crisis.

This study examines the relationships among oil prices, gold prices, and the USD real exchange rate. It adopts the wavelet approach as a nonlinear causality technique to decompose the data into various scales over time. Higher-order coherence and partial coherence were used to identify the lead-lag effect and mutual coherence function among the variables. The results show that changes in the USD exchange rate influence the prices of oil and gold negatively in the short- and medium-term. While in the long-term, the oil price has a negative impact on the value of the USD. Oil and gold are significantly linked and correlated because their prices are determined in USD. The findings of this paper have significant implications, particularly for risk management.

Despite the increasing significance and the central role of stock markets, investing in gold has remained a popular choice among market participants. The necessity to forecast gold prices has sparked a voluminous literature on the matter, though there is no consensus regarding the variables that drive gold prices evolution or the methodology that adheres to the true data generating mechanism. In this paper, we forecast gold prices comparing econometric and machine learning methodologies in order to produce a model that can better grasps the dynamics of gold prices. To do so, we filter the most prominent variables proposed by the relevant literature exploiting the ability of the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm to separate noise from the actual evolution of a timeseries. Then, we train Support Vector Regression models coupled with the linear and nonlinear kernels. Our empirical findings suggest that the proposed model adheres closer to gold price evolution than Ordinary Least Square regression and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator models used in the literature, while it can be utilized in shaping profitable portfolios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important steps required for future planning in gold investment is being forecasted the prices in the future periods. Starting from here, it was aimed to be forecasted Cumhuriyet gold prices of Turkey in the future. For this purpose, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), Holt-Winters (Additive and Multiplicative models), Simple Exponential Correction and Holt Linear Trend from time series methods were used. Forecasting analysis results that were made with these methods were also compared on the basis of RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) and Sum of Squared Residuals (SSR), which are the forecast evaluation criteria. According to the basic criteria, ARIMA was determined to be the best performing method. In the forecast analysis made with the established ARIMA model, it was forecasted that Cumhuriyet gold prices will continue to increase in the first six months of 2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gold is preferred for many reasons such as high convertibility worldwide, being a reliable investment instrument against financial fluctuations and not losing value against inflation. This situation causes the demand for gold to increase day by day. According to World Gold Council data for the year 2019, Turkey is among the countries with the most gold reserves has risen to 18 as well. For this aim, Turkey's causal relationship between stock prices and gold prices, with the monthly data for January 2005 to September 2019, has been tested with Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. The results of the analysis show that there is a one-way causality relationship from gold prices to stock prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) defines the minimum capital required for the risks assumed by banks or the maximum risk level considering the existing capital. In the context of the proposals submitted within the framework of Basel Accords, the current scope of these risks (credit and market) has been expanded in compliance with newer Basel Accords and operational risks have been considered in calculating the capital adequacy. Undoubtedly, the risk-taking behavior of banks is influenced by the mobility of various macroeconomic factors in the market. In this context, this study aims to detect whether the foreign exchange rate fluctuations, gold prices, and risk appetite have significant impacts on the CAR. Accordingly, monthly standard deviations of TL/USD exchange rate, gold price, and risk appetite data are calculated throughout January 2010 - December 2019 and analyzed whether they have impacts on the CAR. The regression analysis results assert a significant and positive impact of TL/USD exchange rate on the change in the CAR, whereas the risk appetite has a negative impact, and the gold market does not affect the change in the CAR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nonlinear relationship in the joint time-frequency domain has been studied for the Indian National Stock Exchange (NSE) with the international Gold price and WTI Crude Price being converted from Dollar to Indian National Rupee based on that week's closing exchange rate. Though a good correlation was obtained during some period, but as a whole no such cointegration relation can be found out. Using the Discrete Wavelet Analysis, the data was decomposed and the presence of Granger Causal relations was tested. Unfortunately, no significant relationships are being found. We then studied the Wavelet Coherence of the two pairs, namely NSE-Nifty & Gold and NSE-Nifty & Crude. For different frequencies, the coherence between the pairs have been studied. At lower frequencies, some relatively good coherence have been found. In this paper, we report for the first time the co-movements between Crude Oil, Gold and Indian Stock Market Index using Wavelet Analysis (both Discrete and Continuous), a technique which is most sophisticated and recent in market analysis. Thus, for long-term traders they can include gold and/or crude in their portfolio along with NSE-Nifty index in order to decrease the risk (volatility) of the portfolio for the Indian Market. But for short-term traders, it will not be effective, not to include all the three in their portfolio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Covid-19 Pandemic or in other words this century's black death affects deeply on health sector at the same time financial markets. İn this study it has been examined whether there is significant relationship between gold prices and Covid-19 by ARDL modelling with using daily data 22.01.-08.04.2020. It has been identified gold prices as dependent variable, total Covid-19 cases in the world, total Covid-19 cases in Turkey, exchanges rate (US Dolar), Turkey political interest rate, gasoline prices on pump as independent variables in the model. In the frame of the ARDL model is applied due staiblity of selected variables at different levels, it has consisted within the findings of the short term and long term. According to the error correction model results, the long-term capture rate of the model is 51 percent. Gold is the most known and traditional financial instrument that can be observed how investors develop behavior in situations that cause global panic to financial instruments.According to empirical findings, there are negative effects on gold prices with exchanges rate and Turkey political interest rate, moreover there are positive relationships between gold prices and gasoline prices on pump, total Covid-19 cases in the World, total Covid-19 cases in Turkey's lags and gold prices lags in the short run. İn the long run there are cointegrated relationships between gold prices and all variables except total Covid-19 cases in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gold, which has a wide usage area, has become an extremely important asset with its use as an investment tool in recent years. Especially in terms of portfolio management, due to the long-term return of gold, the effect of gold price on macroeconomic and financial variables become vital. In this study, the relationship between the London FTSE100 Stock Index, which is the most important and valued indices in the world, and gold prices is examined. The main purpose of the study is to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the variables. The study was carried out with appropriate econometric time series analysis covering monthly data between January 2010 and April 2020 period. For the purpose of the study, unit root, Co-integration and Granger causality tests are employed. As a result, it is concluded that there is no long-term co-integrated among the variables, but there is a bi-directional causality relationship in the short term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stock market as well as the gold market are the most important markets in all developed countries. Due to the urgent need of policy makers, investors and speculators, especially when tensions between countries arise, studying these markets is important. The relationship between gold and the stock markets, in the presence of global tension and conflicts, is re-explored by introducing the uncertainty that induces shocks, such as the recent index, which was calculated by Caldara and Iacoviello in 2016, referred to as geopolitical risk index. The gold price, S&P500 index and geopolitical risk index are used, for period starting from 1960 to 2017 in order to construct a VAR-BEKK-GARCH model, which computes the mean returns, as well as the variance-covariance, especially if the time-varying stock--gold covariance, their returns and their variances are influenced by geopolitical risk. The present model showed a negative relationship between the volatilities on gold prices, as well a significant effect on the spillover between the stock market and the gold market. These findings are important for investors to manage their portfolio effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gold exchange traded funds help investors to generate the returns based on the movements of underlying commodity. In current scenario, gold ETFs are emerging as one of the best ETFs for the investments. The present study intended to determine the causal relationship between spot prices of gold, SENSEX, and ten selected BSE listed Gold ETFs. The closing prices gold ETFs, SENSEX and spot prices of gold was collected during 2015–2018. The study applied ADF root test, co-integration test, and Granger causality test to study the causal relationship. The results of the study revealed that out of ten, six gold ETFs has significant causal relationship with gold price and only two schemes has significant relationship with BSE SENSEX during 2015–2018. The study concluded that gold ETFs are largely affected by the spot price movements of gold. Therefore, an investor must understand the pricing dynamics of the underlying asset of ETF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As at the top of the precious metals, gold has been historically seen as a symbol of wealth, economic power and prosperity by both countries and households. There are many studies supply and demand based on discussions of the factors affecting gold prices in the literature. Especially in recent years the gold prices have seen the historical peak level might well be the main reason of choosing subject of this study. In this study, it is aimed whether there is long run Granger causality between gold prices and other chosen variables with using weekly data between 2015 and 2019. In the model, while gold prices are determined as dependent variables, oil prices, BIST100 Index, exchange rate (USD) are determined as independent variables of VIX Index. In the study, it is examined whether the existence of a long-term relationship between variables with using the cointegration tests. In addition, in order to reveal the effect of the shocks in the variables in the long term, VAR analysis was applied. According to the results of VAR analysis, a longterm relationship has been determined between gold prices and other independent variables. In the light of the empirical findings, it can be said that there are Granger causality relationships between gold prices and BIST 100 Index, oil prices and exchange rate variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]