1. Bridging Quantitative and Qualitative Science for BECCS in Abandoned Croplands.
- Author
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Næss, Jan Sandstad, Henriksen, Ida Marie, and Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe
- Subjects
ENERGY crops ,CLIMATE change mitigation ,CARBON sequestration ,FARMS ,ANIMAL feeds ,FOOD of animal origin - Abstract
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) plays a vital role in most climate change mitigation scenarios, where a solution for sustainable near‐term bioenergy expansion is to grow energy crops such as perennial grasses on recently abandoned cropland. There is a need to combine model‐based insights into theoretical potential and future biomass supply with more fine‐grained sociotechnical analysis to move toward realistic policies and innovation strategies. We combine natural science insights anchored in quantitative bioenergy modeling with qualitative social science anchored in the multi‐level perspective. Using these mixed methods enables a global‐to‐local‐to‐global level assessment of near‐term bioenergy recultivation opportunities for abandoned cropland. Norway is the local case. There are three main findings. First, the ongoing recultivation trends for food/feed production risks making gains in aboveground carbon stocks from natural regrowth on the mapped abandoned cropland over a 30‐year evaluation period almost negligible. Second, delaying a BECCS recultivation of abandoned cropland will make it impossible to reach high‐end mitigation potentials, and an accelerated BECCS recultivation guided by a policy push is needed to ensure stronger mitigation. Third, we unravel several real‐world challenges associated with bioenergy resource and supply modeling. Remote‐sensing techniques alone cannot capture actual land availability for land‐based climate change mitigation strategies. Local‐level sociotechnical conditions are generally found insufficiently supportive to align with the rapid near‐term bioenergy crop expansion found in 2°C scenarios from integrated assessment. The integration of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods is key to better understand the role of BECCS in climate change mitigation. Plain Language Summary: Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key option for mitigating climate change. The idea is to capture the carbon emitted when biomass is converted into fuels or burned for energy production and store it underground. One proposed solution to ramp‐up biomass supply involves growing energy crops, like perennial grasses, on recently abandoned farmland. To make realistic policies and strategies for the future, we need to connect the theoretical potential of BECCS with local context, considering social and technical factors. We combine two approaches: using numbers to model bioenergy and using social science to understand the human and political side. By using a mix of methods, we can assess the potential for a near‐term recultivation of abandoned cropland for bioenergy and BECCS. There were three main findings. First, the combined use of both natural science and social science methods can help us better understand the role of BECCS in climate change mitigation. Second, re‐using abandoned farmland for growing food or animal feed reduces the effectiveness of letting the land naturally recover for fighting climate change. Third a rapid BECCS recultivation of abandoned cropland increases achieved climate change mitigation relative to a delayed BECCS recultivation. Key Points: Mixed quantitative and qualitative methods are key to unravel the role of bioenergy and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in climate change mitigationOngoing recultivation of abandoned cropland for food production limits aboveground carbon accumulation from natural regrowthPolicies to redirect recultivation toward BECCS are needed to maximize climate change mitigation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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