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After the end of the First World War in November 1918, the Allies were involved in a military campaign in the Ottoman lands, leading to a national resistance by Turks that would end in 1923. It is relevant to provide actual information on the outcomes of the Turkish War of Independence, since it was a longlived event that paved the way for further problems on the belligerents’ economies. Using unique data for the value of the gold from 1919 to 1925 at the İstanbul bourse, our analysis complements the historical arguments as historians may find political risks difficult to quantify. We observe that in 1921 the Turkish victories created expectations on the part of traders that the war could end soon, as is manifested in exchange rate fluctuations. The Turkish economy would have experienced higher financial instability with the Allies’ occupation and resistance in 1920, creating a lower chance to return the pre-war gold content of the belligerents’ currencies.

We present a precise measurement of the proton longitudinal double-spin asymmetry A 1 p and the proton spin-dependent structure function g 1 p at photon virtualities 0.006 ( GeV / c ) 2 < Q 2 < 1 ( GeV / c ) 2 in the Bjorken x range of 4 × 10 − 5 < x < 4 × 10 − 2 . The results are based on data collected by the COMPASS Collaboration at CERN using muon beam energies of 160 GeV and 200 GeV . The statistical precision is more than tenfold better than that of the previous measurement in this region. In the whole range of x , the measured values of A 1 p and g 1 p are found to be positive. It is for the first time that spin effects are found at such low values of x . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study an optimal consumption-leisure, investment, insurance and retirement choice problem of an infinitely lived economic agent with constant elasticity of substitution (CES) preferences. We incorporate random insurable losses that are independent of risky asset returns (negative monetary shocks) and impose short-sale constraint on the risky asset to formulate this optimal choice model. When the wealth process is subject to insurable negative monetary shocks produced by a general marked point process, the challenge is to derive an optimal allocation of the agent's wealth between a portfolio investment and an insurance (costly) strategy. Without imposing the level of insurance to be within interval $$\left[ {0,1} \right]$$; we capture the agent's instantaneous preferences for consumption and leisure via CES preference, while integrating the optimal consumption-leisure-work tradeoffs, the optimal portfolio selection, optimal level of insurance and his/her optimal retirement time. We use the Martingale technique to formulate the optimization problem and solve the optimal policies of the agent by applying the variational inequality arising from the dual functions of the optimal stopping times. Our results demonstrate that a lack of insurance against large negative monetary shocks is positively correlated with lower participation rate in the equity market and high savings rates when short-sale constraint is binding. The optimal retirement time is characterized as the first time when his/her wealth exceeds a critical level of wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper addresses two issues. The first is whether demographic change was plausibly responsible for the run-up in stock prices over the last decade, and whether an attempt by the baby boom cohort to cash out of its investments in the period 2010–2030 might lead to an “asset meltdown”. The second issue is whether the rise in dependency that will accompany the retirement of the baby-boom cohort calls for an increase in national saving. We analyze these issues using a forward-looking macro-demographic model, and show that they are related via the existence of installation costs for capital. If such costs are sufficiently large, then demographics do have the power to affect stock prices, but “saving for America's old age” is less optimal. However, conventional estimates of capital installation costs are not large enough to explain large stock price movements in response to actual demographic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]