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While far from ideal, civil-military relations in Mexico in the second half of the twentieth century stood apart from the Latin American trend towards military government and dictatorship. Over the course of the last three decades, however, drug-trafficking, organised crime and high levels of violence and insecurity have deeply transformed this historical pattern with Mexico experiencing a clearcut process of militarization and becoming part of a broad Latin American trend. This article investigates the forces behind and the features of the remarkable political and ideological turnaround with respect to Mexico's military and militarization. To provide proper context, it first examines the evolution of civil-military relations in Mexico during the era of PRI dominance (ca. 1945-ca. 1985) and the subsequent challenges of a democratic recasting of civil-military relations. It then studies how from the 1990s onwards drug trafficking (and its mutation into organised crime) and an escalating security crisis affected civil-military relations. The last section critically examines the unprecedented promotion of military roles and prerogatives during the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024). The conclusion argues that the shifting relations between civilians and soldiers in Mexico are likely to weaken civilian control over the military and hence risk democratic backsliding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although scholars have long understood the importance of psychology in international affairs, morality has often been overlooked as a factor in world leaders' decision‐making. This article seeks to fill this gap by introducing a new analytical tool: the moral portrait, a descriptive summary of a leader's moral values. The tool is built on the five cross‐cultural values of Moral Foundations Theory (Care, Fairness, Loyalty, Authority, and Sanctity) and the methodological approach of operational code. As a case study, the moral portrait of Russian President Vladimir Putin is inferred from his rhetoric, policies, and decisions. Putin's moral portrait, specifically his interpretations of the Fairness, Loyalty, and Authority values, can help explain many of his views and actions, including his decision to launch a full‐scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has abolished its previous wolf-warrior diplomacy and is increasingly adopting a softer diplomatic tone, primarily driven by internal economic challenges such as a slowing economy and the need for global economic stability to sustain its growth and development. In response to international pressures and the desire to avoid further isolation, China is adjusting its foreign policy to be more in line with global norms and expectations, which may improve its relations with western democracies. The shift in China's diplomacy reflects a broader strategy to recalibrate its global influence by presenting itself as a more responsible and cooperative international player, which is essential for maintaining its long-term geopolitical ambitions. Western democracies should: Avoid seeing China solely as an adversary. Instead, they should engage constructively, leveraging this diplomatic shift to build trust and foster cooperation on global challenges. Promote policies that encourage reciprocal openness and collaboration, ensuring that China's diplomatic softening goes beyond rhetoric and leads to tangible improvements in international relations. Continuously monitor China's evolving diplomatic strategies to adjust and optimize foreign policy approaches, balancing collaboration opportunities with cautionary measures against potential risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the global rise to power of populist leaders over the past decade, research on populism, including its international implications, has flourished. However, we still lack a nuanced understanding of the international effects of this new populist wave. The special section that this article introduces seeks to bridge this gap by systematically examining three types of international effects of populism. One group of contributions addresses the impact of populism on the processes of foreign policy-making in countries governed by populists (politics). Another group focuses on effects in terms of foreign policy agenda and its substantive outcomes (policies). A third group of contributions studies the impact of populism on states' stances towards international institutions (international polity). This introduction proposes a theoretical framework that takes into account the existent diversity among populist governments, specifically addressing how the more or less authoritarian character of populism explains variations in international outcomes across politics, policies and polities. A better understanding of these varied characters and effects can contribute new insights to lively debates about the potential challenges posed by populism and populists in the contemporary international order, and the prospects for mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explains how right-wing populist leaders in Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey have transformed their states' foreign policy institutions through personalization and politicization. We examine the transformation of foreign policy institutions in the four cases and make two contributions. First, we differentiate between disparate types of personalization by proposing the term 'hyperpersonalization'—populist leaders' reliance on security institutions in foreign policy decision-making—which distinguishes the populist transformation of foreign policy institutions in Russia and Turkey. We argue that lower levels and speed of autocratization lead to politicization combined with milder cases of personalization of the foreign policy bureaucracy, while higher levels and speed of autocratization lead to higher levels of personalization in the foreign policy institutions. Second, we lay out the steps and patterns of populist politicization and hyperpersonalization that bring 'deinstitutionalizing restructuring' to foreign policy institutions. As we illustrate, this deinstitutionalizing restructuring involves concurrent bureaucratic expansion and bureaucratic retrenchment. The process is accompanied by a populist narrative that this restructuring is done to realize the 'popular will' or to regain 'full sovereignty'. We conclude the article with the policy implications of this populist transformation of foreign policy institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan's security policy is changing rapidly, with drastic increases to its defense budget and the acquisition of counterstrike capabilities. While the deteriorating security environment undeniably motivates Japan's defense posture, the speed and extent of these recent changes still present a puzzle. Why was it under Kishida Fumio--a former leader of Kōchikai, the liberal and oft-considered pacifist faction within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)--that Japan achieved its watershed moment on defense? This article explains this change through the exigencies of Kishida's domestic political survival. It was through his leadership of a minority faction within the LDP, his image as a dove, and support for fiscal discipline, that Kishida managed to find the largest common denominator among competing domestic political forces. Had it not been for Kishida, the speed and degree of Japan's recent transformation in security policies would have been unlikely. In light of these findings, we conclude by considering the policy implications for understanding Japan's security posture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International studies have recently witnessed a renaissance of interest in the study of decision-making patterns related to the influence of individual and group actors and the resulting need to understand their deep psychology, the nature of their incentives and motivations. Such studies update the application of behavioral and cognitive sciences in the field of international relations and foreign policy, and encourage the adaptation of the methodology of specialized disciplines to solve complex socio-political problems. The present paper is an attempt to inventory key research subject areas and related literature, as well as to demonstrate the application of existing theories to the analysis of current political issues.

This article focuses on the role emotions play as a heuristic tool in determining the hierarchy of norms in EU's Arctic policy. In the Arctic, appropriate behaviour prescribed by the norms regarding climate change mitigation (the European Green Deal and the Paris Agreement), environmental protection according to EU environmental law and UN-recognised Indigenous Peoples' rights contradict each other. When multiple norms are to be applied in a situation and they conflict with each other, a prioritisation needs to be made among these norms. This paper investigates how emotions contribute in a heuristic way to determining this priority. It finds out that fear of climate change enables climate change mitigation and regulations of the European Green Deal to gain primacy over environmental protection norms and Indigenous Peoples' rights. Self-confidence of the EU and its trust in Nordic member states in these two areas constrain the EU from taking further protective measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the lack of representation and inclusion of perspectives from the Global South in the field of International Relations (IR). It highlights the dominance of Western perspectives and theories in IR, while marginalizing critical theories and perspectives from the Global South. The article argues for the need to incorporate diverse perspectives and theories from the Global South to create a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of international relations. It also discusses the implications of Western norms and institutions in global governance and the need to challenge colonial/Western narratives in IR. The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of evolving IR theory to reflect global changes and the rise of emerging countries in the Global South. [Extracted from the article]

Why has western foreign policy exhibited a record of sustained strategic failure, from Afghanistan to Ukraine? Why is it that despite the intellectual attention devoted to identifying the foundations of good strategy, outcomes remain so poor? This study seeks to bring a process of academic rigour to these questions. It pinpoints an inability to relate to problems proportionately as the major factor that accounts for bad strategic results and the growth of an anti-strategic predilection in policy-making. This lack of proportionality arises largely from a liberal-elite commitment to moral missions that undermine exit plans and bounded objectives. This sets in train an escalatory dynamic that inexorably spirals towards failure. Furthermore, rarely is there any accountability for predictive ineptitude or reckless advocacy, which merely entrenches the propensity towards poor strategic performance. The argument contends that these factors can all be captured within an enduring paradigm of total war, which exerts an overdetermining influence on western policy-making, pushing the formulation of strategy towards abstract goals and the unrestrained application of resources. While there are no easy answers to overcome these deep-seated problems in western strategic formulation, this article suggests that an attempt to move the idea of strategy away from 'problem-solving' to 'problem-framing' can offer the prospect of more considered policy reflection and facilitate a process of learning from mistakes rather than repeating them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Which factors influence bilateral counterterrorism (CT) cooperation between EU Member States? Although scholars have studied European CT, the question still needs to be answered. This paper addresses the issue by introducing a new theoretical framework that combines CT and Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) literature. As citizens' threat perception increases, governments are pressed to act. Overall, centrist cabinets tend to rely more on cooperation agreements; likewise, pushed by threat perception, left-wing executives also recourse to international cooperation. I tested this framework on a newly collected dataset, which comprehends bilateral CT agreements signed among EU Members from 2002 to 2017. As such, this paper fosters studies on EU CT, focusing on a less debated issue: bilateral cooperation between EU Member States. The results support the initial hypotheses, disclosing a robust influence of threat perception and cabinet ideology on the number of bilateral CT agreements signed. Furthermore, they show that the perception of the threat is more influential on cooperation than the actual impact of terrorism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Abstract Why do some agreements take longer to be approved by national legislatures than others? This question motivates this research, which aims to understand how the nature of coalitions influences the time for the approval of international agreements. To this end, the analysis covers all agreements signed within Mercosur between 1995 and 2019 and the internalisation processes in four member states. This study provides insights into which variables define motivation when voting regionalism bills, concluding that the government-opposition cleavage drives the parliamentarians’ behaviour on this topic, with the size of the president’s party being the decisive factor in parliamentary procedures.

Ontological security theory posits that states seek to provide their citizens not just physical but also cognitive security, mostly through routinised foreign policy practices that reinforce notions of the national Self. Several studies established this theoretical assertion at the individual level, using various qualitative methods. This study adds to the literature by taking an experimental approach to provide further empirical support. It develops a novel index for the measurement of foreign policy behaviour's effect on individual citizens' ontological security and employs it in a survey experiment. The experiment examines whether Jewish-Israelis experience change in their sense of ontological security due to their state's deviation from its long-standing offensive–defensive security doctrine. The findings demonstrate that citizens indeed form an attachment to their state's foreign policy practices and that deviation from them can impair their sense of ontological security. This suggests that seemingly rational, strategically warranted policies might sometimes bear unexpected costs for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Parliamentary Deployment Votes Database provides data on the voting behaviour of 301 political parties in 1,022 parliamentary votes on military missions between 1990 and 2019 in 21 countries of the Global North. This special data feature introduces the database and presents descriptive statistics and basic patterns on some of its key variables: general, political, and regional characteristics of missions and votes themselves; the level of agreement; and party-political contestation. The number of deployment votes has increased over the course of the 1990s and then fluctuated around a stable annual average of 40 to 50 votes. At the same time, legislative–executive relations in security and defence policy and, as a consequence, the number of deployment votes, continue to differ substantially between countries. Whereas support for military missions has increased over time, the degree of contestation, as measured by an agreement index, differs considerably across the countries under study. Whether a political party supports a military mission depends not only on it being part of a governing coalition or in opposition but also on its political ideology: support is lowest among parties of the Radical Left, increases among green and social-democratic parties and peaks among liberal, conservative and Christian-democratic parties. Radical-right parties are less supportive than centrist parties but more supportive than radical-left parties. Regional peculiarities notwithstanding, this pattern can be found in Western and Eastern Europe, East Asia and North America. The database will be interesting for scholars of the democratic politics of military missions and particularly legislative–executive relations and political parties in security and defence policy, providing the foundations for a comparative analysis of different missions, the ideological foundations of contestation, government–opposition dynamics and legislative–executive relations in security and defence policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine took most experts by surprise, but before the war, there were numerous voices in the Russian public debate calling for much tougher policies towards Ukraine and the West than the ones pursued by the government. This article challenges explanations that prioritize external factors or focus solely on President Putin and shows that examining opposition, state media and government discourses is necessary to understand Russia's foreign policy properly. The article contends that the concept of managed pluralism (defined by Harley Balzer in 2003), which has not yet been used in the analysis of Moscow's international behaviour, is a useful tool that can address the gap in the literature and shed light on important mechanisms behind Russia's foreign policy-making. Consequently, the article reveals mechanisms that, by allowing certain voices while eliminating others, steer Russia's foreign policy in a specific direction, which in this case made the invasion of Ukraine possible. Finally, it indicates that observing actors admitted to the public debate and their propositions may be a clue to the direction of Russia's future foreign policy. More broadly, this article points to policy implications and theoretical benefits of managed pluralism for our understanding of other states' foreign policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The key purpose of this paper is to identify key Latin American theories proposed to study foreign policy. The essay points out that Latin America has made a significant contribution to foreign policy analysis. The most important conceptual contribution in the field is the concept of principled pragmatism. A crucial premise is that Latin American nations resort to this type of policy to come to agreement with the United States, address domestic issues, advance national interests, and cope with economic problems. The paper is divided into four sections. The first describes key analytical models and theoretical approaches created to explain foreign policy. The second identifies the Latin American thought on this subject. The third section explains the concept of principled pragmatism. This approach stems from the models and theories explained in the second section and from the Latin American thinking described in the third section. The last segment explains the case study of Cuban foreign policy in the early 1960s using the notion of principled pragmatism.

Copyright of Conjuntura Austral is the property of Conjuntura Austral and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Greece has faced since 2009 one of the most significant crises in its modern history. Unique in its intensity, at least during times of peace, the financial crisis impacted the country’s economy, politics, and society. Despite the country being under the international spotlight for several years, one cannot help but notice that little has been written on the issue of Greek foreign policy, especially, on whether there is a necessity for adaptation to the limitations imposed by the new realities which have augmented the sense of marginalization and the challenges presented by a continuously complicated international arena amid systemic change. Similarly, Turkey has undergone substantial changes during the past years. Following the July 2016 failed coup attempt and the April 2017 referendum, the country has been in the midst of both administrative change and a change in its foreign policy approach, while its leaders have challenged long-held foreign policy orientations and priorities, in search of a new outlook for the country’s international relations. Our paper aims to explore whether there is a need for Greece and Turkey to adopt a new role in the international system, and therefore, the necessity for the two states to adjust their respective foreign policies accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article assesses what determines the role played by legislators in committees when analysing international treaties. Employing Qualitative Comparative Analysis with an original dataset, the investigation covers the case of the Protocol of Accession of Venezuela to the Southern Common Market and the period in which it passed through the Brazilian National Congress. We find that belonging or not to the ruling coalition upstages other confounders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Active learning is an engaging way of teaching and even experienced professors may not know how to start implementing its techniques to make classes more dynamic. Teaching cases can be a very useful active method of instruction, as an opportunity to assign students roles in the case discussion, centering them as the protagonists of their own learning process. In other words, students will learn by doing, as they will be engaged in thinking and communicating on the topic. This paper presents a teaching case on the Brexit process to introduce central concepts of Putnam's Two-Level Game model, such as level of negotiations, chief negotiator, win-set, voluntary defection, involuntary defection, and ratification. We assessed learning with self-perception questionnaires before and after the activity. The results suggest the activity improved the understanding of all selected topics covered in class. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign policy is defined as the strategies that describe the attitudes and behaviors of countries in the international system towards each other. Nations seeking to protect their national security and pursue their own interests aim to reach a rational outcome by making foreign policy decisions based on a cost-benefit analysis. The bureaucratic policy approach, which analyses the decision-making process from a critical perspective, argues that it is not precisely possible for countries to make rational decisions due to the past experiences of the actors involved in the process, their foreign policy cultures, their individual ambitions and their rivalries with each other. This study, which examines the decision process of the invasion of Iraq under the leadership of George W. Bush with the bureaucratic policy model, aims to determine the impact of the US foreign policy culture on the views of decision makers. In the study, it is revealed that the actors involved in the Iraq invasion decision process were influenced by the US foreign policy culture factors of idealism, enemy perception creation and perception of continuity and integrity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why was the United States, despite its overwhelming superiority in power, unable to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons? Why did North Korea persist in its nuclear pursuit in the face of U.S. opposition? In this article, we represent nuclear proliferation and counter-proliferation as situations of subjective strategic interaction between states. We measure preferences over strategies and outcomes using operational codes of the leaders of each country, derived via linguistic analysis. Our results indicate that neither the U.S. nor North Korea accurately understood the other side’s preference ordering, and that their operational codes interacted in such a way as to produce an outcome favorable to North Korea – the weaker party - and unfavorable to the U.S. – the stronger. The wider contribution is to show that (mis)perceptions of the goals and resolve of the opponent play a crucial role in the success or failure of strong states to compel weak states and vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign policies of many countries in various conditions have been proved to be inconsistent with the predictions and prescriptions of realism. In this article, a realist foreign policy is defined as one followed on the basis of what realists regard as being rational, more or less risk-averse, furthering national interest and security, employing diplomacy as the preferred way for achieving goals, taking into account others’ vital interests, making a balance between one’s power and objectives, and being prudent. However, nearly irrational unrealistic foreign policies are not uncommon and attempts for explaining them have led to the emergence of other theoretical frameworks that take into account various factors, from cognition to bureaucratic politics to the role of identity and emotions in order to supplement realism. In this article, a discursive formalist theoretical framework based on Ernst Cassirer’s understanding of myth as a form of thought with extra-rational elements and categories has been introduced to show how unrealistic foreign policies—especially those inspired by ideologies such as nationalism—become possible through the formation of specific emotions, identities, and cognition. These elements and categories, when taken into language, acquire fluidity resulting from semantic and semiotic exchanges. Therefore, discourse analysis can help us understand them in specific cases. In order to emphasize the significance of unconsciousness in its interplay with mythical discourse, Lacanian psychoanalysis has been employed. Then, the limitations posed by the ideational structure of the international system comes into play to make changes in myth-based foreign policies inevitable et again the shift is not beyond the realms of possibility of mythical form of thought. Mythical form of thought as a whole contains certain characteristics and categories that make unrealistic foreign policies possible. It does not distinguish between objective reality and most subjective experiences such as fantasies and dreams and between objects and their representations such as pictures or symbols. This can be seen in nationalist ideologies where national symbols are as important as the nation itself, and any disrespect for the representations of the nation and/or its representatives are taken as disrespect for the nation leading to emotional reactions. The overemphasis of mythological form of thought on causality makes whatever cannot be easily understood or explained by a specific tangible cause to be attributed to something the effect of which cannot be verified, for example, the conspiracy of others; hence adding to the common pessimism in international life leading to proneness to preventive measures. Parts and whole are not separable here. Therefore, every characteristic is taken to be essentially the same as the object. Thus, for example, in Nazism, being German/Arian provides one with a superiority over others. The way in which similarities work result in over-generalizations that make, for example, the other an enemy. As space is divided into holy and unholy/profane places and holy spaces cannot be disintegrated, the homeland or even beyond that may take a holiness that makes defending it not only legitimate but also a necessity. This may lead even to over-expansionist aspirations to include the holy spaces that are somehow in the hands of others as a mission that cannot be ignored. Perhaps the most significant example is the Zionist territorial expansionist ideal of a territory from the Nile to the Euphrates. Time in this form of thought is not linear; present is not distinguished from the past which is justified and even sanctified. Referring to the past in order to justify and legitimize specific actions in the present thus becomes common in foreign policies no matter how different they are. If this form of thought exists in the cultural background of a society, mostly through the existence of particular myths, such as city upon a hill, the Russian World and the like, it can be unconsciously present in the cognition of everyone. When this mythical form of thinking becomes dominant, the agents of foreign policy reflect it in the form of narratives that have an unconscious dimension being explicable by psychoanalysis according to which the symbolic order, as the intersubjective relations, norms, rules, conventions and the like is the site of unconsciousness. The symbolic order which exists both at domestic and international levels imposes limitations upon actors. It is where the desire of the subject is formed and the real is perceived through the subject’s desire. Yet both the subject and the symbolic order face the lack as the subject cannot actualize its desire and the symbolic order cannot provide the subject with fantasy. When the state as an international agent faces the limitations of the international structure, its foreign policy may change but again within the limits of mythical thought. Consequently, a mythical state, on the basis of a predestined mission and a sanctified past becomes an exceptional state assuming that whatever it imagines can be achieved in one form or another. These elements together form an identity that makes unrealistic policy choices possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry or the Middle East Cold War, exceeds the region when it touches religious regards, which is the religious outreach that the two peripheral regional powers conduct to the Muslim world. This paper aims to explain the religious outreach of Saudi Arabia and Iran, with Indonesia as the main case study. The research also aims to discuss the recent changes in policies and attitudes of Saudi Arabia regarding its religious ideology and the obstacles that Iran is facing in its Islamic revolution. This research found that Saudi Arabia's religious outreach is decentralized, rapid, and large, while Iran as centralized, quick, and light. Wahhabism-Salafism as an ideology is not limited only in the religious domain, it touches on various domains which is taken as precaution for the moderates, as it leads to uncontrolled and undesirable interpretation which can affect the Saudi's image. Saudi's Vision 2030 is a series of rapid efforts the kingdom pursue that includes transforming Saudi's religious ideology. Whereas Iranian's centralized religious outreach contributed to the effectiveness and acceptance by the Muslim world, which is predominantly Sunni-Muslim. Although Iran is successful in carrying it out, it is less likely to touch various aspects that are desired. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin 1956 Süveyş krizi konusunda yürüttüğü dış politikayı neoklasik realist teori çerçevesinde analiz etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda, bir bağımlı değişken olarak “1956 Süveyş krizine yönelik Türk dış politikasını” analiz etmek için, çalışmanın metodolojisi gereği, “uluslararası sistemsel faktörler” bir bağımsız değişken ve “yerel faktörler” bir ara değişken olarak ele alınmaktadır. Çalışmada 1956 Süveyş krizine yönelik Türk dış politikası yapımı sürecinde belirleyici/sınırlandırıcı bir etkiye sahip olduğu öne sürülen uluslararası sistemin yapısı, Soğuk Savaş döneminde süper güçler arasındaki ideolojik karşıtlık ve nükleer rekabeti ifade eden iki kutupluluk ile ilişkilendirilerek açıklanmaktadır. “Caydırıcı askeri kapasite ihtiyacı”, “Türk dış politikası geleneğindeki Batıcılık eğilimi”, “ekonomik teşvik gereksinimi” ve “karar alıcıların bölgesel liderlik çabası” gibi çeşitli faktörler ise uluslararası sistemin belirleyici/sınırlandırıcı etkilerini yorumlayıcı nitelikteki yerel filtreler olarak ele alınmaktadır. İki farklı analiz düzeyinin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada hem 1956 Süveyş krizine yönelik Türk dış politikasının sistemsel etkilere dayanan “sürekliliği” hem de yerel dinamiklerden kaynaklanan “değişim eğilimi” ortaya konulmaktadır.

Abstract If Saudi Arabia’s regional strategy involves the containment of Iran’s proxies, why, under King Salman, did Saudi Arabia attack the Houthis in Yemen, but give up its attempt to overthrow Bashar al-Assad in Syria? I argue here that both decisions reflect Mohammed bin Salman’s willingness to seek ‘heterodox’ solutions in foreign policy, a feature that guided Saudi foreign policy in the face of a changing decision-making unit in the Saudi regime. While MBS’s influence in the case of Yemen is more easily identified, in the case of Syria this is not so straightforward. The crown prince only acquired the ability to manoeuvre Saudi policy towards Syria after consolidating his power within the regime, in 2017, and, from there, he put in place measures that, in practice, facilitated a coexistence arrangement between Saudi Arabia and Russia. In both cases, the objective was to contain the perceived Iranian advances in a scenario of reduced appetite by the United States to provide security for Saudi Arabia. This conclusion is reached through the use of a Foreign Policy Analysis approach, more specifically, the analysis of the decision-making units, to broaden and deepen the observations made from a regime security perspective.

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Copyright of Conjuntura Austral is the property of Conjuntura Austral and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article tests the plausibility of an affect‐centered framework for foreign policy analysis, using the 2014 annexation of Crimea as an illustrative case. It identifies questions left open by prevailing accounts based on international relations theory and shows how a supplementary conceptual lens can improve existing explanations. The affective perspective suggests that the Russian president deemed intervention in Ukraine without alternative. Otherwise, Russia would have surrendered any claim to relevance in European security. More saliently, the ouster of Yanukovych, as a possible precedent for Russia, frightened Putin and increased his resolve to take action. Also, contrary to the interpretation of the annexation as an improvised reaction to a political crisis, evidence suggests that the Russian elite welcomed the opportunity to break free from uncomfortable partnership dynamics with the West. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of how political leader personalities affect the foreign policy of their states is a long-standing query in foreign policy analysis, within which the use of leaders' speech, or verbal statements, to explain how leaders behave is a methodologically productive subfield. One of the more prominent and reliable methodologies used to assess leader personality through leader speech is Leader Trait Analysis (LTA), developed by Margaret Hermann. However, because LTA was developed using English language vocabulary and grammar, its accuracy using Russian language speeches to discern leader personality traits has relied on translation. Translation is both inefficient and may not accurately transfer the semantics of speech upon which LTA's results depend. Responding to this issue, this paper applies Mona Baker's translation studies criteria to qualitatively compare the semantic equivalence, or maintenance of a text's original meaning, between English translations used to create an LTA profile for Vladimir Putin and Putin's original Russian speeches. The research identifies the preponderance of grammatical differences between English and Russian in limiting how well English translations of Russian speech maintain semantic equivalence relevant to assessing leader personality. It is concluded that an accurate understanding of Russian leaders' personalities requires Russian language specific LTA profiling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heterogeneity of foreign policy preferences has hampered a more effective Common Foreign and Security Policy. We examine the dimensionality of the EU foreign policy space by analyzing foreign policy votes in the European Parliament (1999–2019). As it contains the EU's full geographical and ideological diversity, it is an important laboratory for testing expectations about what predicts foreign policy positions. Party ideologies structure voting on foreign policy: party-political disagreements over the CFSP and military interventions matter more on foreign policy votes than others. The left-right dimension and the EU integration dimension still explain a considerable share of voting patterns, although they matter less on foreign policy votes than others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This forum, as a part of the special issue on New Directions for Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA), provides a diversity of answers to the question of how affects and emotions, and the search for ontological security, relate to foreign policy. By foregrounding the various ways to conceive the relationship between foreign policy, ontological security, collective identities, states’ autobiographical narratives, emotions and affective investments, the contributors to this forum examine and chart fruitful directions in FPA. Resende explores the analytical potentials of combining the theory of Ontological Security, Foreign Policy Analysis and Memory Studies to investigate how states invest in practices of ontological security by creating, remaking and defending their national narratives through historical memory. Solomon recollects how the September 11th attacks and the ensuing War on Terror contributed to his search for approaches which took affects and emotions seriously in IR, and which could help make sense of why some discourses, including foreign policy discourses, resonate with and are accepted by the audience in certain contexts. Finally, Sandrin provides an account of her encounters with the literature on the role of emotions in foreign policy and conveys how these texts helped her make sense of some puzzling aspects of Turkish foreign policy. Jimmy Casas Klausen served as lead editor of this forum. The manuscript passed through the regular double-blind peer review process to insure anonymity.

Abstract What makes current radical right populists different from other historical radical right leaders of the 20th century? Are there more differences or similarities among populist radical right (PRR) in the Global South regarding how they perform foreign policy? How does the context – marked by contemporary globalization, regional interdependencies and power (geo)politics – influence their perceptions about their own capabilities and interests, but also about the international liberal order, its values and multilateral mechanisms? This forum addresses questions like these, offering theoretical, historical and contextual insights with concrete examples and case studies situated out of the Anglo-American spectrum. Different from traditional approaches to foreign policy analysis, the authors advance reflections about current phenomena such as illiberal foreign policymaking, anti-cosmopolitanism, religious nationalism and its transnational ties, and the re-personalization of sovereignty in the figure of the PRR. Therefore, it enriches the study of populism, radical right and foreign policymaking in IR, bringing to the debate the erosion of the liberal international order and the necessary questioning of Western-led globalization.